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Good Luck John Madden

Published: April 17, 2009

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“You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,

Know when to walk away and know when to run.

You never count your money when you’re sittin at the table.

Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.”

The Gambler – Kenny Rogers

The lyrics of the timeless cowboy anthem seem fitting for a sendoff piece to the one and only John Madden.

We all know enough about John’s accomplishments that I wont recount them, but rather regale you with a tale of how John affected my own life. (As T.O. says, “get ya tissues ready”)

I’m 25 years old and started playing football 10 years ago. Madden, the coach, spokesman, Superbowl winning coach, Emmy winner, etc, was never even in my wheelhouse; There was a generation gap that 99.9% of the time I would have never had a clue who John Madden was.

Myself, and undoubtedly many other youngsters, were introduced to John Madden via his video game franchise; which was far more addictive than a coffee infused with nicotine (smokeaccino anyone?) 

Madden was like an annoying coach track stuck on repeat:

“You have to kick the ball there, I don’t know what they were thinking.”

“You just cant take a sack there.” 

“I wouldn’t have called that play there.”

Countless times my friends and I cursed Madden after he pointed out our digital mistakes…I swear, I hated the guy.

Then I started to religiously watch the NFL, and I began to see why everybody loved John Madden.

When he called a game you really could hear that he loved what he did. When an amazing play happened, you could tell that he admired the players. When a guy would make a lazy or foolish play, you could hear the disappointment in his voice; as if he held these players to a higher standard.

A lot of people would rip Madden for pointing out some obvious things during a broadcast; He also had some Theismann-esque quotes like “When your arm gets hit, the ball wont go where you wanted it to go.”

For me, that’s what I loved about Madden.

He never tried to pretend he was something other than what he was. He screwed up on air, and would mumble and mix-up his thoughts, but in a round about way he always got his point across.

He had a man-crush on Brett Favre that was bigger than Romeo Crennel’s waistline; Didn’t bug Madden, he just loved watching Brett chuck the ball.

Which brings us to today, Madden has officially decided to retire from broadcast.

He wants to spend more time with his grandchildren, and enjoy his twilight years surrounded by the people he loves. He is leaving on his terms, and walking away after achieving just about everything a man in his business ever could.

Well good for you John, you have brought a lot of laughter into my life and to those people around me. To me, you have been the epitome of class and dignity. I hope you enjoy your retirement and live many more years.

Just lay off me next time I go for it on fourth and eight. 


The Players The Oakland Raiders Will Build Around On Offense and Defense

Published: April 17, 2009

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The Raiders, heading into the offseason, had plenty of things to be optimistic about.

One thing that the Raiders have to be optimistic about is the amount of young talent on both sides of the ball. I know the Raiders still have holes to fill, but that’s what the draft is about! 

Offense

JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Oren’ o Neal, Robert Gallery, Mario Henderson, Samson Satele, Zach Miller, Chaz Schillens and Johnny Lee Higgins.

Let’s not forget veterans like Cooper Carlisle either.

With the draft coming, the infusion will only increase with a franchise left tackle and a No.1 wide-out. 

Defense

Chris Johnson, Nnamdi Asomougha, Tyvon Branch, Thomas Howard, Kirk Morrison, Derick Burgess, Trevor Scott, Jay Richardson, Tommy Kelly and Gerard Warren

The Raiders have a bright future, and with a few more pieces added, they will be the favorites to hold the Lombardi Trophy soon.

When you get into the playoffs, you have a shot of winning it all.  

The Patriots, Chargers and Colts aren’t getting any younger! 


The Raiders in The Playoffs? Something to Look For in 2009

Published: April 16, 2009

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That is right…I said it.

It was about time someone did too.

I know some of you guys are going, is this a joke?

Well guess what, it is not. The Raiders are going to be the Falcons of 2009. They might not make the playoffs, but they will challenge the Chargers for the AFC West crown.

JaMarcus Russell has another year under his belt and he finally has a coach that is not in the hot seat.

The backfield is healthy and ready to tear it up in 2009, with Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden pounding it down the field, and Michael Bush and Oren O’Neal pounding it into the endzone.

The receiving corps is healthy, but adding a veteran wide receiver like Torry Holt or Amani Toomer, or drafting a stud like Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin, would be a huge gain.

The offensive line is still weak, but with the acquisition of center Samson Satele from Miami will help because we all know Jake Grove is not the answer.

Robert Gallery and Cooper Carlisle are talented, but our tackle position is even weaker. Mario Henderson is an okay tackle, but I would rather have him as a backup, and this whole thing with Cornell Green puts an even bigger need at tackle.

If we can pick up a tackle in the draft like Andre Smith, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher, that would be a major upgrade; I know Andre Smith’s work ethic is in question, but just look at his film.

The defensive line is also weak.

Derrick Burgess and Tommy Kelly are good players, but Oakland needs someone to take the pressure off of them; Brian Orakpo or B.J. Raji would be a major upgrade in the draft.

The linebacking corp is pretty good.

We have Kirk Morrison in the middle, with Thomas Howard on the right, but we all know the Robert Thomas experiment all but failed.

If Aaron Curry from Wake Forest is somehow available, I say we take him.

The secondary is our strong spot in the defense. We secured Nnamdi Asomugha for a few more years, which is a huge boost since he is the best corner in the league, and Chris Johnson is highly underrated; I say he is as good as Deangelo Hall.

Hiram Eugene is okay at free safety, but an upgrade would be nice. With the release of Gibril Wilson, another hole opened at strong safety. If we could sign Roy Williams, or take William Moore in the third round, we could fill that need.

While I know filling these holes will take a few years, I think we can challenge San Diego for the top spot in the West.

I think the biggest thing is having a steady coach that is not butting heads with Al. I am confident that Tom Cable can lead us out of this six-year drought. 


How Draft Round Affects a Quarterback’s Career Performance

Published: April 16, 2009

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In one week, the Detroit Lions will likely draft quarterback Matthew Stafford as the No. 1 overall pick.

USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and Kansas State’s Josh Freeman are both candidates to be drafted in the top 15 picks.

It’s no sure thing, however, that any of them will pan out as analysts believe. For every Peyton Manning, there’s a Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf, a highly-touted prospect who is called a bust in three years.

In this series, I’ll be looking at the 20 drafts from 1985 to 2004 to see how a player’s draft round correlates (if at all) to their expected career performance. In the first installment, I’ll be examining quarterbacks—is a quarterback selected in the first round any better than one selected two or three rounds later?

All data comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com. For players that never played a game but were still drafted, I did not just throw them out of the sample; instead, I took the stats of Mike McMahon—who had a career passer rating of 55 (below replacement level) with just over 500 pass attempts—for their hypothetical career lines.

 

Pro Bowls

 

The graph below shows the likelihood of a quarterback being selected to one or more, two or more, or three or more Pro Bowls in his career. In the first instance, there is almost a perfect linear relationship after the first four rounds.

There were only seven quarterbacks drafted after the first round who made three or more Pro Bowls; 167 were drafted. As you can tell, there weren’t enough QBs to make three Pro Bowls to be statistically significant.

Quarterback Rating

 

The graph below shows the average passer rating (weighted by attempts, of course) of a quarterback selected in each round. Notice that there’s a steady decrease after almost every round.


The rating for the last round was 61.8, so I didn’t show it in order to allow a better close-up of the first six rounds. The graph shows the difference between first and second round quarterbacks is minimal, but after that the production is much worse.

The next (and my favorite) graph shows the probability of a quarterback having either a career passer rating above 80 or below 75; use this as a bust-or-not detector. Only quarterbacks with more than 500 career attempts were included, but the percentages were found using the total number of QBs in the denominator (as opposed to just those with 500 attempts).

The blue line, which shows players with a rating over 80, is almost identical to the graph above (save for the different values in the second round). The red line, which essentially shows the percentage of busts picked, has no pattern whatsoever—in fact, quarterbacks picked in the first and second rounds have the greatest chance of having a passer rating under 75, while those in the fourth round have never done so (with a significant 34 QBs picked in the fourth round).

Pay attention to whether the blue line is above the red; if so, that means there’s a better chance of a quarterback having a solid career than that same QB having a sub-par career. The first, fourth, and sixth rounds—in that order—had the biggest positive difference; all other rounds either had the same number or a one player difference of good and bad picks.

 

Other Stats

 

How does the average quarterback fare in a full season’s worth of play? The following table shows the stats (per 550 attempts) of the average QB in each round, as well as the overall average quarterback.

Yardage and completion wise, there’s an obvious trend—the stat in question drops steadily through the first five rounds, increases in the sixth, then drops off in the seventh. As for touchdowns and interceptions, there’s nothing to take away, as both are wildly inconsistent.

The final graph below shows the years as the primary starter (as denoted by P-F-R) for a quarterback drafted in each round.


This graph backs up what all the others have before: there’s a near-continuous downward trend from the first through the fourth rounds, before a small increase to the fifth and a larger one to the sixth, and then a big drop to the seventh. If you go back to the very first graph, the percentage of quarterbacks with one or more Pro Bowl appearances looks virtually the same as this graph.

 

What Does All of This Mean?

1. Despite the high number of infamous busts, quarterbacks selected in the first round have the best chance of having a passer rating over 80 and the biggest difference in successful/non-successful picks.

2. Second-rounders have the second-highest passer rating on average, but they also have the most risk, with more quarterbacks with a passer rating less than 75 than quarterbacks with a passer rating over 80.

3. Sixth-round quarterbacks perform almost as well as third-rounders in their career. They have a better chance of making the Pro Bowl, less risk, and an equal chance of panning out than third-rounders. The QBs selected in the sixth round, though, had a lower average passer rating by one point and just over one-third of a year as the starter than third-rounders.


The End of a Legacy: John Madden Retires

Published: April 16, 2009

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The look of the NFL has officially been changed today.  Legendary broadcaster and Hall of Fame coach John Madden has decided to end of his illustrious career.

As a Steelers fan, I have to say, I am going to miss him.

I know he hates the Steelers.  But I loved when he called our games. 

You could be sure that every time Madden would announce a Steelers’ game, we would hear Al Michaels bring up the Immaculate Reception.

That would be followed by Madden explaining how the call was not fair and that the Raiders should have won that game.

I remember when Madden made the comment that the statues in the Hall of Fame would talk to each other at night, and they would have wonderful stories they would tell.

Chris Collinsworth is going to replace Madden in the booth, and I believe that he is going to do a terrific job.

Even though he is a former Cincinnati Bengal, Collinsworth always calls it down the middle.  Madden could never be accused of that.

The biggest question is, what will EA Sports call the NFL football game that everyone plays?

Will it keep the Madden name?  Or will it be changed to NFL 10?  Is there anyone that can take the place of the always classy John Madden?


John Madden: A Tribute

Published: April 16, 2009

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John Madden redefined football.

What separated John from everyone were the four things that changed the way we see this sport and helped propel it to what it is today, the premier sport in America.

John was, without question, the face of the NFL. From my personal perspective John brought four major contributions to my beloved sport.

First and foremost, he taught mainstream people the X’s and O’s of professional football.

As a college football player, I learned from him.

A world respected professor of mine, when asked why he was so popular, once commented “I put the cookies on the lower shelf so even the big boys can reach them.” That was John. He spoke to both the novice and the well informed fan.

Second, John was an innovator.

Even when he was well beyond an age, when most of us have long since retired, he was creating “turduckin,” the “telestrator,” and his “side of the bus” hall of fame.

I can only hope I remain as fresh and innovative at that age.

Third, John embodied integrity.

I can not enumerate the number of times that John would refute some ESPN sensationalism or some AP speculative “fact” by interviewing a player, coach, GM, or even celebrity.

John was after the truth and his integrity reached all of us.

Fourth and most important to John’s legacy, he reached out to people who were not football fans. One of the many examples is my wife.

She does not like football, but would sit and watch if John was announcing. She would even ask, “Is John Madden  announcing?”

His homespun humor and earthy witticisms reached so many beyond the normal football world.

My greatest memory of John will be him announcing a Green Bay game.

He called out Gilbert Brown, saying, “Gilbert is like a Sumo wrestler. You can’t block him with one man. If you want to stop him, you need two people. If you want to move him, it takes takes three.”

My son and I were in tears as they were showing Gilbert with his hands on his hips, gut hanging out, dark visor etc.; he had no idea the world was focused on him, but it was.

John loves the “big uglies,” and he brought that to us.

John, my family and I will miss you. You are a pioneer, an American icon, and a great man of integrity.

What more could Mrs. Madden have hoped for in a son!

 

 

 

 


NFC East: Will This Division Dominate The League in ’09? (NFC Edition)

Published: April 16, 2009

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As it stands, in which divisions in the NFL do you see at least two playoff teams?  How about three? What if the Giants get Braylon Edward and the Eagles get Anquan Boldin?
I’d say that would make for a fascinating season.
But I guess I am getting ahead of myself there.  In my first of two articles, let’s discuss why the NFC East may easily overtake its NFC counterparts.
Last year, the NFC South was right at the line with the East in terms of dominance.  There was also a lot of talk that the South may have, in reality, been the better division. 
The NFC South went 40-24, while the NFC East totaled 38-26-1.  Both had a bottom team (Saints and Redskins) who went 8-8, and a division leader (Panthers and Giants) with 12 wins each.  Each division sent two representatives each to the playoffs.
But that is certainly not the end of it.  Strength of schedule plays a large role in this one.  The South had regular season games against the AFC West and the NFC North.  The NFC East played the AFC North and the NFC West.
Sounds pretty neck and neck, right?  Well, this upcoming season is going to be much, much harder on the NFC South.  The division is scheduled to combat the NFC East and the AFC East. The AFC East had three teams finish 9-7 last year.
In comparison, the NFC East will face the NFC South and the AFC West.  The division winner in the AFC West (Chargers) finished the season with an 8-8 record. Kansas City ended at 2-14.
Statistics are not necessarily everything, as 2009 is going to be a new year, and previous records won’t mean anything come September.  I just don’t see the NFC South becoming as powerful as they were last year.
It will definitely be a treat to see these two divisions go head-to-head over the course of the season, but it will likely be the other divisions on their schedule to determine NFC dominance. You heard it here first:  The NFC East is going to send three teams to the playoffs this year.
Next, I will compare the NFC East to the AFC.  Is it possible for this division to overtake the conference known by many as superior? Stranger things have happened.

Is DeSean Jackson the Next Steve Smith?

Published: April 16, 2009

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Press Rewind back to this time a year ago…The 2008 NFL Draft was right around the corner and just like every other in recent memory, the Eagles were talking about acquiring a big name wide receiver.

Little did we know that in the second round, with the 49th pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, we would select the next Steve Smith. 

Steve Smith was selected in the third round of the 2001 NFL Draft out of Utah.  The similarities between the two are striking.

 

Similarities

DeSean Jackson is listed as 5’11” and weighing 175 pounds.  Steve Smith is listed as 5’9″ and weighing 185 pounds..both DeSean and Steve are little guys with lots of speed and big play-making ability.

Steve Smith has ran a 40 yard dash time of 4.38…very quick.  DeSean Jackson ran a 4.35 40 yard dash at the ’08 combine.  Both guys have lightning speed!

In Smith’s final year at Utah, he caught 34 passes for 743 yards and four touchdowns..not eye-popping stats..but what caught my attention was the 21.2 yards per reception.

In Jackson’s final year at Cal, he caught 65 passes for 762 yards and six touchdowns..like Smith, these stats are not eye-popping….however, in his 2006 campaign, Jackson averaged 18 yards per catch…similar to Steve Smith’s 2000 season.

Both guys are kick return MONSTERS!!!  Smith went to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season for his return game..Jackson also made a huge impact in the return game for the birds in his rookie year.

 

Differences

Take a look at both players’ rookie seasons: Steve Smith played sparingly, only catching 10 balls for 154 yards and zero touchdowns.  We all know what he has become and how great of a player he is.

DeSean Jackson’s rookie year was filled with big plays.  He caught 62 balls for 912 yards and two touchdowns.  He has experienced success that not many rookie wide outs have had.

 

Blocking

Steve Smith is known around the league as a great blocking wide receiver…in fact, one of the best in the game.  DeSean needs a lot of work in his blocking game to say the least.

 

Body Type

For only being 5-foot-9, Smith is built like a brick house…the guy is a physical specimen.  DeSean is not a big-bodied receiver and looks like he could break in two if he got hit coming across the middle

DeSean Jackson is a promising young wide receiver with a plethora of talent…still a little rough around the edges at times, but is going to be a deadly receiver for years to come.

As talented and productive DeSean is, he would benefit greatly if the Eagles went out and got a wide out such as Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards.  The wide receiving core would go from good to great, and would be one of the best offenses in the league

With that being said, this guy will shine regardless of if a big-bodied wide out comes to Philly. He is the next Steve Smith…Just sit back and watch!


Champion Steelers Look To Avoid Replay of 2006

Published: April 16, 2009

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The 2006 season took a turn for the worse before it even got started.  Ben Roethlisberger’s near fatal motorcycle accident cast a dark cloud over the Steelers that stayed with them all year.

After the accident, more bad luck awaited the Steelers.  There were appendectomies, concussions, and interceptions…lots of interceptions.

Pittsburgh dug themselves into a 2-6 hole that they were unable to climb out of. 

The Steelers found out the hard way that defending the title was not so easy.  When you are the champions, every opponent is going to turn it up a notch when they play you.

Despite knocking the rival Bengals out of the playoffs on the final weekend, the 8-8 season was a huge disappointment.  Week after week, the Steelers failed to match their opponents’ intensity.

This season will mark the second time in four years that this current team of Steelers will be trying to repeat as champions.  Something tells me this time will be different.

They return for this season pretty much the same team that won Super Bowl XLIII.  A lot of these players can draw on their experience from 2006.

After navigating the toughest schedule in the league last year, this year’s version is a little less daunting.  Pittsburgh’s December schedule has them playing three-out-of-four games at home. 

That’s the stretch run toward the playoffs when serious contenders get on a roll.

With Santonio Holmes ready for a break out year following his MVP performance in the Super Bowl, and Ben Roethlisberger just entering the prime of his career, the Steelers should once again be one of the top contenders in the tough AFC.

Barring any unforeseen motorcycle accidents, I like the Steelers’ chances of repeating as champions.  This time should be different.


Grading the 1995-2004 Drafts

Published: April 16, 2009

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Introduction   

 

Sportswriters love to grade each NFL team’s draft, right after the draft is over. 

Most likely, they do that because after the draft, the pro football season falls into the doldrums that last until the start of training camp.  Other writers like to wait a year or two before they assign a grade to each player drafted in the first round.

 

I maintain that one or two years after the draft is too early to fairly grade most NFL first-round draft picks.  Also, most of these grades are based on purely subjective measures.

 

One can usually distinguish an out and out bust within about three years following the draft, because the bum is already out of the league, if not actually in prison. 

 

But there are a large number of players who can range from just a little better than a bust to a future Hall of Famer, who cannot become distinguished until at least five seasons in the league.  Below is a discussion of grading of the first round of the ten drafts between 1995 and 2004.

 

This gives the youngest players a minimum of five years, since they were drafted.

 

 

Grading System

 

Like your high school teacher, I grade on a five point system from one to five, examples as follows:

 

1. Bust, Ryan Leaf—need I say more?

2. Disappointment, Ron Dayne is a guy who isn’t a total bust, but is a bit below the average for a first round pick.

3. Starter, Vonnie Holliday is a player that will start a bunch of games and do a pretty good job but nothing spectacular.

4. Pro Bowler, Warrick Dunn is a consistently good player with more than one Pro Bowl season or impressive stats but not quite worthy of Canton.

5. Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez is a consistently great player over a long period of time.

 

One really does need at least five years to distinguish between disappointment, starter, and pro bowler.  To pick out the future Hall of Famer, it typically requires a minimum of seven years.

 

The grades for each first-round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and the number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted.  The stats were compared with all other first-round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

 

Draft Grade by Year

 

As discussed in my earlier article, “What is the Safest Position to Draft in the First Round?,” a three signifies an average player.

 

The average for a draft is usually less than three, because there are nearly always more busts than future hall of famers.  The years from 1995-2004, with the highest average grade for the first round, was 1995, with an average score of three and one-tenth.  The lowest average grade was for the class of 2003, with little over two and a half.

 

By position, the best first round for quarterbacks was in 1995. 

 

Both Kerry Collins and Steve McNair developed into Pro Bowl level players.  The worst year for first-round quarterbacks was in 2002, think David Carr and Joey Harrington. 

 

I can’t really count 1997, because Jim Druckenmiller was the only passer selected, even if he was one of the biggest quarterback busts of all time.

 

The best years for running backs were 1997 and 1999, both scoring three and a half, because each drift produced a Pro Bowl player and a solid starter.  The worst running back years were 1998, Curtis Enis and John Avery, and 2002, both with an average score of two. 

 

It should be no surprise that the best year for wide receivers was 1996, with an average of three and eight tenths, which is the highest average for any specialist position in any year. 

 

It’s hard to beat a draft that included Keyshawn Johnson, Marvin Harrison, and Eric Moulds in the first round alone, not to mention TO a little later.  The worst year for wide receivers was 1997; anyone remember Rae Carruth? It had the lowest multiple player average score of any position for any year—one and three quarters.

 

Too few tight ends and defensive tackles have been selected in the first round to make much of a trend, but there is no such problem with offensive linemen. 

 

The best draft for offensive linemen, average of four, was 1997, which included Orlando Pace and Walter Jones; 1999 was the worse year, two and a third, at the position.

 

If your team was in the market for a defensive end in 2002, you were in luck.  With Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney, the average grade was three and a half.  The worst year, with a score of two and a quarter, was 1999.

 

With five linebackers selected in the first round and only one disappointment, 2000 was the best draft for the position, three and two-thirds.  The worst multiple player draft for linebackers was 2002, with an average of two and a half.

 

Finally, the best draft, three an six-tenths, for defensive backs was 1999, headlined by Champ Bailey, and the worst year was 1997, with an average score a little over two and one-tenth, for six first-round draft picks.


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