How Draft Round Affects a Quarterback’s Career Performance

By NFLSportChannel
for NFLSportChannel.com

Published: April 16, 2009

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... pick.

USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and Kansas State's Josh Freeman are both candidates to be drafted in the top 15 picks.

It's no sure thing, however, that any of them will pan out as analysts believe. For every Peyton Manning, there's a Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf, a highly-touted prospect who is called a bust in three years.

In this series, I'll be looking at the 20 drafts from 1985 to 2004 to see how a player's draft round correlates (if at all) to their expected career performance. In the first installment, I'll be examining quarterbacks—is a quarterback selected in the first round any better than one selected two or three rounds later?

All data comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com. For players that never played a game but were still drafted, I did not just throw them out of the sample; instead, I took the stats of Mike McMahon—who had a career passer rating of 55 (below replacement level) with just over 500 pass at...

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