Predictions for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010

The Pro Football Hall of Fame selections are performed by a panel of 44 leading NFL media members, including representatives of all 32 NFL teams, a representative of the Pro Football Writers of America, and 11 at-large writers.

The panel has selected a list of 15 finalists from the modern era , defined as playing all or part of their careers within the last 25 years. A player must have spent five years out of the league before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2004 season will be eligible for induction in 2010.

During Super Bowl weekend, the panel will meet and narrow down the list of modern-era finalists down to five. Those five will be considered alongside two senior candidates, selected by a nine-member sub-panel of the larger panel last August, for a total of seven. From this list, at least four will be selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

My prediction for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 is:

Jerry Rice
Emmitt Smith
Shannon Sharpe
John Randle
Russ Grimm

Hall of Fame Game: 49ers vs. Cowboys

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 15

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, six-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday, or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on six days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (six days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after week four the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in prime time on NBC, ESPN, or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my week five post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of prime time games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Week 17 (Jan. 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots (@Texans) lead by two over Dolphins (v. Steelers) and Jets, both of which they split the series with. (Since Miami swept the Jets a three-way tie would go to the Dolphins.) The Patriots and Dolphins each have divisional records of 4-2 to the Jets’ 2-4, eliminating the Jets, and I’ll wait to research common games until Sunday.
• AFC North: Bengals (@Jets) lead, Ravens (@Raiders) a game back, Steelers out by being swept.
• AFC South: Colts clinched.
• AFC West: Chargers clinched.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos (v. Chiefs) and Ravens would get the nod (the Ravens beat the Broncos earlier in the season). The Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Jaguars (@Browns), Texans, and Titans (@Seahawks) are a game back.
• AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Colts have locked up the 1. Chargers (v. Redskins) have a two-game lead for the two wins over the Bengals and Patriots. Bengals-Jets and Dolphins-Steelers are the main AFC contenders for prime time, but a lot depends on how the wild Wild Card shakes out.
• NFC East: Eagles (@Cowboys) lead, Cowboys a game back, Giants two back. Because the Cowboys and Eagles play each other, the scenario that ends with the Giants tied for the division creates a three-way tie. The Cowboys would lose the division tiebreaker and the Eagles swept the Giants, so the Eagles would win the division.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by two games over Packers, and I don’t know if you noticed, but the Vikings swept that series.
• NFC South: Saints clinched.
• NFC West: Cardinals clinched.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers (@Cardinals) and Cowboys would get the nod if the season ended today (Green Bay beat Dallas), with the Giants (@Vikings) a game back and the Falcons waiting in the wings but would still finish with a worse conference record than the Packers or Cowboys.
• NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Saints (@Panthers) lead by two over Vikings, but scenario that leads to tie would give the Vikings a better conference record. Vikings lead by one over Eagles, who lead by one over Cardinals.
• Analysis: The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles and Giants-Vikings, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to prime time, which would seem to favor the AFC’s chaotic race at the moment…unless the very likely case happens where Cowboys-Eagles is an effective NFC East title game, even if the loser is still in the playoffs. (See why Broncos-Eagles wasn’t picked for Week 16?) I’ll track evolving playoff scenarios on Twitter this Sunday.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

First, apologies for last week’s Flex Schedule Watch not being posted on Bleacher Report. Suffice to say, it’s a long story and my Twitter followers got the gist of it.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Carolina. See here for why a game involving two small markets that’s this lopsided was kept.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 8-4 v. 3-9, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles, at 8-4 v. 8-4, and Jags-Patriots, at 7-5 v. 7-5.
• Analysis: Normally we would expect Broncos-Eagles to be the favorite with Jags-Patriots involving a team too obscure in the Jags even if things break down right. Two things work against it: First, Cowboys-Redskins is still the NFL’s biggest rivalry. Second, picking Broncos-Ravens moves from a Fox game to a CBS game, for the penultimate week of the season, which could force the selection of a Fox game Week 17. Right now, Fox has the better games anyway, but Week 17 is so dependent on circumstances it’s unpredictable even after Week 15.  But the killer could be the Eagles becoming maxed out on NBC appearances, preventing NBC from getting a potentially very valuable Fox game Week 17: Cowboys-Eagles.
• Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (no change).

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets a game back, Bills another two back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, and Miami plays Pittsburgh.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens and Steelers three games back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns out.
• AFC South: Colts clinched.
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders out. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and Jags (who play the Browns) would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, and Steelers a game back. The Titans and Texans are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Cowboys and Eagles tied for lead, Giants a game back, Redskins out. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals.
• NFC South: Saints clinched.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Cowboys-Eagles loser would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a game back and the Falcons, who play the Bucs, waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always=ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot—the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 7-4 v. 6-5. However, there are strong flex contenders…
• Protected games: Chargers—Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Bengals (8-3)—Vikings (10-1); Broncos (7-4)—Colts (11-0); Saints (10-0)—Falcons (6-5), and Jags (6-5)—Dolphins (5-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The prospects of Saints—Falcons depends on whether the Saints are still unbeaten. After tonight, that’s probably the Saints’ best chance for a loss.
• Analysis: The Broncos got back on track to stay ahead of the Falcons, and the Colts are still unbeaten, but picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling with both teams winning and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favre-mania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later). The Giants’ loss makes a flex much more likely, and the NFL can’t go wrong with either Broncos-Colts or Bengals-Vikings.
• Final prediction: Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts.
• Actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (no change). Not terribly surprising, given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, but still a bit less than what NBC could have gotten.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 6-4 v. 6-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons all remain very strong contenders. Jags-Dolphins worthy of note but not likely to go anywhere.
• Analysis: With the Broncos at 6-4 and no longer leading the division, you can pretty much eliminate Broncos-Colts if the Colts lose, and even if the Colts win, picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year. Although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 7-3 v. 9-1 looks mighty compelling and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later), and Saints-Falcons has the same undefeated factor as the Colts (but the Falcons are still worse than the Broncos). And then there’s the existing tentative game. For Saints-Falcons to even have a shot it needs both teams to win and the Broncos (or maybe Colts) to lose. If the Eagles and Giants both win I would favor it keeping the spot given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex; if the Broncos and Colts both win it becomes difficult to argue against. Otherwise, and even in those situations, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling; unless either team loses…

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 9-1 and the Panthers 4-6. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13 and possibly Week 14, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, and sudden dark horse Dolphins-Titans are all 5-5 v. 4-6, while 49ers-Eagles is a bit better (at the cost of lopsidedness) at 6-4 v. 4-6. Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Cardinals may keep its spot yet; the main point against it is lopsidedness, especially since a 4-6 team is far from out of the playoff picture, especially in the NFC (although that race may have tightened – see below).

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 7-3 v. 3-7, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jags-Patriots, both involving nothing but teams at 6-4 or, in the case of the Pats, better. They (as well as dark horse battle of 5-5 teams Texans-Dolphins) may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins two back, Jets another game back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Steelers a game back, Ravens waiting in the wings. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns would have to resort to tiebreakers I’m not ready to look up yet.
• AFC South: Colts running away with it; Jags a full four back, while the Titans are down to tiebreakers. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders four back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, any two of the Broncos, Jags, and Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Texans, and Ravens a game back. The Titans and Jets are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles and Giants a game back, Redskins mathematically in it. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears two behind that. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
• NFC South: Saints lead by 5 over Falcons, with the Panthers a game behind that. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that and the Rams hanging on by a tiebreaker. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Eagles, Giants, and Packers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Falcons a game back and the Bears, Panthers, and Niners waiting in the wings, giving Panthers-Saints dark-horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals; but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime. So we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Last Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: 7-3 vs. 5-5. Still lopsided.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Eagles (6-4)-Falcons (5-5), Vikings (9-1)-Cardinals (7-3), and Jags (6-4)-Texans (5-4).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Texans can move to 6-4, but…
• Analysis: I said last week that any game would need a perfect storm to happen to steal the flex away from Vikings-Cardinals, and the Cards won, so Favremania it is.
• Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals.
• Current situation: No announcement yet, which could mean Jags-Texans has a shot after all, or it could mean the NFL is being insane and sticking with Pats-Dolphins.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week Six

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, Six-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on six days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week Four the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week Five post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games according to this : Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Jaguars-49ers and Colts-Texans each involve a team with the same record as the Ravens playing a team above .500, but one’s lopsided and the other has a worse average record.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: A little mediocre at 4-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen. PFT’s Mike Florio, which is now part of the NBC Sports site, seems to think the Dolphins are better than the 3-3 Jets and Jags.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each involve a two-loss team playing a team with a better record. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-1 v. 3-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are now tied for #2). Pretty good shot to keep its spot, though weaker than last week.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. But even with the NFC East’s struggles last week, Broncos-Colts is currently the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-0 and the Panthers 2-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Of the games I mentioned last week, only 49ers-Eagles didn’t see a team fall to .500 last week. Still, keep an eye on Falcons-Jets and Bears-Ravens.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-4, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. If the Redskins continue to be the Raiders Lite, though…
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles. Jets-Colts is now mostly a dark horse, along with Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

The Twilight of the National Football League

Watching Friday’s Pardon the Interruption last night, as Tony and Mike interviewed bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell (whose books I haven’t read but am very interested in nonetheless) about his New Yorker piece on the brains of NFL players, I was struck by a sudden realization.

The NFL—the undisputed king of the American sports landscape—could be in the waning days of its popularity, if not existence.

For decades now, especially as boxing faded away with the decline of Ali and Tyson, the NFL has been the dominant sport on the landscape by appealing to our bloodlust. People tune in to the NFL each week, in part, because they want to see violence, brutality, and pain. Even if that may not be strictly true, it is true that for non-fans (especially for baseball fans), football is identified with that sort of violence and brutality, which fans are willing to take a blind eye to.

American culture, as well as other developments, may be turning against that tolerance to the NFL’s brutality. There has been a confluence of events that has started to show that people are starting to care more about the NFL’s brutality than in the past.

Most of them are in the background for now—like the ongoing pension fight between retired players and the Player’s Association and pieces like Gladwell’s that actually quantify the effects (even in college and high school) and have led to an increased emphasis on concussions—but we’ve also seen the NFL itself make rule changes that have been seen by some as appealing to pollyannas, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback.

The NFL is becoming a more conscientious place when it comes to the well-being of its players—with “safety” becoming the watchword of the day. But nothing it can do could protect the players as well as taking them out of harm’s way altogether.

I can’t link to a video of the PTI interview because ESPN hides almost all video from PTI and Around the Horn behind its “Insider” subscription wall, but I can tell you that the interview did touch on this very possibility.

Gladwell suggested that to completely make the NFL safe might require massive rule changes that would turn the game into something else, and the prospect was raised of Congress potentially deciding if the NFL needed to be banned and driven underground.

Perhaps the most likely doomsday scenario, though, may involve parents deciding they cannot in good conscience, allow their kids to play such a violent sport—or even kids making that decision themselves.

There’s another cultural development that doesn’t bode well for the NFL: our bloodlust is starting to move back to combat sports, specifically MMA. If young people decide they would rather get their bloodlust filled by MMA, leaving the remaining new potential NFL fans no longer considering violence as a criterion in its favor (and maybe as a criterion against), there might be less direct connection to the league and the NFL may start suffering in comparison to less violent sports. Maybe this means baseball and basketball, maybe it means something new like soccer.

And this might affect the popularity of football on all levels, not just the NFL. Which would be one way to end college football’s playoff debate…

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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