Bill Polian Doesn’t Care What I Think

As a Colts fan, I admit that it is difficult to watch the Colts give up 200 yards rushing in a game even if they win.  We all love hard-hitting football.  I, personally, love defensive football.  I love a hard-fought 4-3 win.  Unfortunately, Bill Polian doesn’t care what I think.

And so, in the game against Miami a few weeks ago, the Colts got ran over like a quadriplegic bullfighter.  They won the game despite never altering their defensive strategy against the Wildcat to any extent other than using a safety as an eighth man in the box, and gave up 239 rushing yards in the process. 

Is this a major weakness of the Colts?  Can other teams utilize the Wildcat against them with similar effectiveness? To some extent, yes.

Just ask team president Bill Polian:

“We controlled the run against Miami from conventional formations about as well as we’ve controlled it the last two weeks,” said Polian in his weekly interview. “What we did not control was the Wildcat and the ‘A’ formation.”

“That begs the question, ‘Can Tennessee do it?’ The answer is, ‘Yes, they can.’ Do we expect they will? The answer is, ‘Yes, we do.’ They could run it with Vince (Young). They could run it with Kerry (Collins). They could run it with any number of people. I could see them running it with Vince and both backs in the game. There are any number of ways they can do it. We’ll have to wait until Sunday night to figure out which one it is, but I’m pretty sure we’re going to see one version or another of it. Maybe all three.”

It was pretty clear by the Colts’ lack of adjustment to the Wildcat in the second half of the Miami game that they are not going to risk giving up a big passing play by utilizing defensive backs to matchup better against Wildcat running plays. 

Fans want a defense that holds run-based teams to 45 yards rushing, but Bill Polian doesn’t care.  The team isn’t designed to do that, and that design started long before the Colts drafted Peyton Manning…it started when Bill Polian was with Buffalo. 

The “bend-don’t-break” cliche is understandably an undesirable moniker to assign to a team, but Bill Polian doesn’t care.  Polian has said that he only cares about two statistics: yards-per-pass-attempt and turnovers.  Thus, he is perfectly willing to allow a field goal in order to prevent a touchdown, because he is banking on the offense scoring a touchdown. That is why he has spent seven of 10 first round draft picks on offense during his tenure with the Colts.

Would Bill Polian prefer a three-and-out every drive? Of course.  Would he prefer limiting opponents to negligible running yards? Of course.  All Colts fans would prefer that.  But the team is clearly not willing to risk giving up big plays in the passing game.

Because of the way the team is designed, Polian was as critical of the Colts’ performance against the Seattle Seahawks as he was of the Colts’ effort versus Miami.

“We have a standard of performance here, and the standard of performance is high,” Polian said about the Seahawks game. “For about three quarters Sunday, we met the standard of performance—albeit grudgingly on offense. Then, it all went to the dogs in the fourth quarter. We played maybe the worst fourth quarter in all three phases this season.”

In the aforementioned fourth quarter, the Colts gave up two drives for touchdowns that featured zero running plays and 19 pass plays.  The only run was a seven-yard scramble by quarterback Seneca Wallace, but the play-call was a pass.

When your measuring stick is pass-yards per-attempt, it is understandable that the team was disappointed even though those two drives came when the game was already well out of reach for Seattle.

Polian also said that the defense did not play up to the team’s standard of performance against Miami, but he blamed the poor play not on the team’s structure or system, but rather on technique.

“The thing with the Wildcat, it’s like any misdirection offense or any misdirection play—you cannot look in the backfield,” Polian said after the Dolphins game. 

“We were playing too high on the defensive line. We had far too many missed tackles. We had far too many poor entries in terms of gap control and things of that nature. We have lots and lots of work to do to get better on defense and get better specifically against the Wildcat and the kinds of things that people are going to do us”

“That you have to get corrected, but yes, you can do it,” Polian said, “because it’s just a matter of technique.”

The Colts are obviously not built around their defense, but if they can improve throughout the season, as was Coach Dungy’s mantra, they are very well equipped to beat any team on a given Sunday.  When Bob Sanders returns from injury the run defense will likely improve, and rookies Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers—who are both getting a good amount of playing time—will play faster and make faster reads as they gain experience.

Do the Colts need to make changes to their personnel or depth chart, or dramatically alter their defensive scheme?  Probably not.

“As far as the game plan and how the game was played, they played to their strengths and we played to our strengths,” Polian said when asked about the Miami game. “We won the game.”

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Good Fantasy Choice: With Felix Jones Out and Marion Barber Ailing, Take Tashard

There’s lots of flux in the Dallas backfield, with Felix Jones ruled out against the Broncos this week and Marion Barber recovering from an injury. So what does this mean for your fantasy team?

It means you have another good choice, and that’s Tashard Choice. When Choice got a chance last season he put up great fantasy numbers, and with Marion Barber out last week against Carolina he put up 82 rushing yards and a touchdown. Not bad numbers at all, considering he split carries with Jones for three quarters.

But equally as important as his stats are his touches from the last game. He had 18 carries to Jones’ eight and was the target of seven passes to Jones’ one. Even before Jones left with an injury in the third quarter, Dallas was not afraid to use Choice extensively.

So even if Barber plays this week against Denver, look for Choice to get plenty of touches. Barber is listed as probable, but the team did sign running back Chauncey Washington from its practice squad as a precaution. If Barber’s injury is lingering enough for the team to take this sort of precaution, it’s pretty likely that he’ll be used a little less than usual.

Barber is still a good start this week. The Dallas offensive line can seemingly get a good push against any defense, and although Denver is currently ranked seventh against the run, it’s played three poor teams with less-than-spectacular running games. 

But if I had both Barber and Choice on my roster, I would start Choice. He will get plenty of rushing attempts regardless of Barber’s status, and he should be much more involved in the passing game. And if there’s any setback to Barber’s injury, the upside for Choice is tremendous.

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Indianapolis Colts’ Recipe for Improvement

The Indianapolis Colts got a win Monday night against the Dolphins, but most pundits will tell you that they can’t win very many games in that fashion.  The team gave up 239 yards rushing and Peyton Manning only had the ball for 14:53. 

Against all odds, Manning willed the team to victory.  Maybe they can win games that way, but they don’t have to.  Here are five things they can do to put teams away the right way.

 

1. Run the Ball

If you read any article or see any highlight or listen to any radio show that claims the Dolphins “held” the Colts to just 61 yards, abandon that news source forever.  Statistically, the Colts were the better rushing team on Monday night; running the ball just wasn’t a part of their game plan.

The Colts actually had a better average per rush than the Dolphins, gaining 5.5 yards per carry on the ground.  The difference is that the Dolphins, despite slightly less success, ran the ball 41 times and the Colts only bothered to call a run play 11 times.

And these statistics aren’t skewed by one big run that boosted the Colts’ rushing average.  The team’s longest run was 15 yards.  If anything, they’re skewed against the Colts, because that includes a three yard sack-evasion by the infinitely nimble, fleet-of-foot Peyton Manning.  The Colts’ running backs averaged a stellar 5.9 yards a carry.

At that average, the Colts would never even have to convert a third down if they ran the ball every play.

 

2. Send Tim Jennings to the Practice Squad

The Colts’ defense was on the field for an absurd 84 plays on Monday night, partly because the offense scored every 38 seconds, but mostly because they couldn’t stop Miami on third down.

The Colts’ defense couldn’t get off the field because every 3rd-and-long Miami ran a 12-yard out-route in front of cornerback Tim Jennings, who typically gave Dolphin receivers a 45 yard cushion at the snap.  

I understand the strong desire to prevent “big-play” Chad Pennington from going deep, but when a safety arrives to make a tackle on an out-route BEFORE the cornerback in a cover-two defense (where the cornerback is responsible for the short zone), there is a significant problem.

I have never been critical of Jennings before, and in 2008 when he replaced Marlin Jackson in the starting lineup due to injury, I thought he played admirably despite many fans labeling him as a major defensive liability.  But after watching his performance against Miami, I will be ecstatic to see rookie Jerraud Powers return from injury.

Jerraud Powers played very well in his first game as a pro, and he will only improve.  If the team decides to keep Marlin Jackson in the slot, Powers is not nearly the liability on the outside that Jennings is.  His return will significantly bolster the Colts defense on third downs.

 

3. Run the Ball

In the Monday night matchup against the Dolphins, the Colts had one three-and-out that started with a four yard rush, and another in which the offense did not attempt a running play.  Yet they averaged nearly SIX YARDS A RUN.

Every time the Colts had a decent run on first down, they always dialed up a passing play on second down, and most of the time it was from the shotgun formation. If you’ve gained three or four yards on first down, why not run the ball occasionally on second down?

Or, if you’re going to put the ball in the air, at least pass from a running formation to keep the opposing defense guessing.

Football is a game of bilateral strategy; defenses must choose their emphasis on every play.  If the Colts aren’t going to attempt a balanced offense, teams are going to be able to predict the offense based on their tendencies.

With that sort of advantage, defenses will cause drives to stall anytime execution isn’t immaculate.  Even Peyton Manning isn’t perfect.

 

4. Call Play-Action on 2nd-and-10

Another predictable tendency of the Colts offense is to call a running play on second down nearly every time they attempt and fail to complete a pass on first down and are left with 2nd-and-10.  The only exception to this is hurry up situations.

Since it is so predictable, this inevitably leads to a minimal gain and 3rd-and-long.  But also, since this is so predictable, it is a perfect set-up for a play-action pass.  Even play action for a short or intermediate crossing route would keep the chains moving and mix up the play calling enough to keep defenses guessing.

 

5. Run the Ball

As I mentioned above, the Colts defense was on the field far too long against Miami.  When the opposing team possesses the ball for over 45 minutes, the defense is going to look bad no matter how good they are.  Defenses give up yards when they get exhausted.

Running the ball is the only way to control time of possession.  Obviously, the passing offense is generally very good with “laser-rocket-arm” taking the snaps, but better balance would keep opposing defenses on the field longer and allow the Colts’ defense to rest.

However, I would like to point out that the Colts’ most effective passing offense is when they are in hurry up situations.  The team runs the no-huddle nearly all the time, but most of the no-huddle offense involves utilizing the entire play clock on every down. 

If the team has a game plan that involves running the ball less than 15 times, however absurd that concept is, perhaps they should run the hurry-up offense more often.  The hurry-up utilizes the shotgun formation on every down, which gives Manning an advantageous extra split-second to read coverages.

if the Colts don’t even want to try to control the ball, they might as well give Peyton every advantage possible.

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Fantasy Football: An Analysis of Running Back Committees

My favorite line from the Star Wars Trilogy:

Solo: “No time to discuss this in a committee!”

Leia: “I am NOT a COMMITTEE!”

Unfortunately, almost every backfield in the NFL is a committee now, and this can mean disaster or opportunity for your fantasy team. There aren’t as many running backs that offer consistent production, but the waiver wire might be a treasure chest if you know what to look for.

After just one week of action, you can’t judge a player’s potential by points alone. You also have to take into account how many opportunities individual players are getting on a weekly basis.

Here is an analysis of all the rushing performances by running backs from Week One in the NFL, ranked in order from highest percentage of one player getting carries to lowest. Although this list is focused on percentage of rushing attempts, rushing yardage and number of targets in the passing game are also included where the data is relevant.

 

St Louis Rams

Stephen Jackson—16 carries (67 yards): 100 percent.

The least committee of any backfield, yet still minimal fantasy production. He’s a must-start every week, but I can’t say he was a must-draft. He also got zero targets as a receiver out of the backfield in Week One.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew—21 carries (97 yards): 95.45 percent.

Montel Owens—one carry (three yards): 4.55 percent.

Jones-Drew is also a must start, and it doesn’t look like his backup, whomever it is, will have much fantasy value unless there’s an injury. MJD was targeted eight times as a receiver against the Colts.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner—22 carries (65 yards): 91.67 percent.

Jerious Norwood—two carries (seven yards): 8.33 percent.

Obviously, Turner is one of the few feature backs in the league, but Norwood was targeted six times in the passing game and Turner wasn’t targeted at all. In PPR leagues, Norwood could still be a decent flex option or bye week sub.

 

San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore—22 carries (30 yards): 91.67 percent.

Moran Norris—one carry (two yards): 4.17 percent.

Glen Coffee—one carry (negative three yards): 4.17 percent.

I heard several pundits rave about Glen Coffee before the season, but he doesn’t warrant a spot on your roster at this time. Frank Gore was targeted five times out of the backfield, while Coffee and Norris had no targets.

 

Chicago Bears

Matt Forte—25 carries (55 yards): 89.29 percent.

Garrett Wolfe—three carries (15 yards): 10.71 percent.

Matt Forte is obviously a must-start, but I was surprised that he had no catches and no passes thrown his way. Garrett Wolfe was targeted once.

 

Washington Redskins

Clinton Portis—16 carries (62 yards): 88.89 percent.

Ladell Betts—two carries (negative one yard): 11.11 percent.

Betts was targeted by two passing attempts, Portis by one. Feel free to drop Betts if he’s on your team.

 

Buffalo Bills

Fred Jackson—15 carries (57 yards): 88.24 percent.

Xavier Omon—two carries (eight yards): 11.76 percent.

How do you lose that game? You have to try to lose that game. McKelvin is such an appropriate name…his brain is absolute zero. Or some frozen McDonald’s sandwich. 

Anyway, Jackson played great in Marshawn Lynch’s absence, catching five of seven passes thrown his way for 83 yards. He’s a must-start these next two weeks, and I think he’ll still be a decent fantasy option once Lynch returns from suspension.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Cedric Benson—21 carries (76 yards): 87.50 percent.

Brian Leonard—two carries (six yards): 8.33 percent.

Bernard Scott—one carry (negative six yards): 4.17 percent.

It might surprise you to look at Cedric Benson as a good fantasy option, but he’s way up high on this list and he was targeted as a receiver twice as much as any other Bengals’ running back in their first game (four times for Benson, twice for Leonard). 

The offense might not be very good, but Benson is a good start whenever the Bengals play a weak defensive team.

 

Green Bay Packers

Ryan Grant—16 carries (61 yards): 84.21 percent.

DeShawn Wynn—three carries (eight yards): 15.79 percent.

Second-string RB Brandon Jackson was injured for this game, but it doesn’t look like he will get many carries when he returns. This game was a defensive battle and Grant still had a decent day. I expect him to have a much better fantasy year than last year.

 

Detroit Lions

Kevin Smith—15 carries (20 yards): 83.33 percent.

Jerome Felton—two carries (four yards): 11.11 percent.

Aaron Brown—one carry (nine yards): 5.56 percent.

Kevin Smith is another one of the few RBs not part of a committee, although he plays on a poor team. Still, he’s a good start regardless of the matchup. He was the target of nine passes and caught seven of them.

 

New Orleans Saints

Mike Bell—28 carries (143 yards): 80.00 percent.

Reggie Bush—seven carries (14 yards): 20.00 percent.

This is pretty telling—in a game where Pierre Thomas was injured, Bush still only got seven carries. He’s still a good receiving threat and he was targeted six times in this game. 

It will be interesting to see how many carries Bell gets when Pierre Thomas returns from his MCL sprain.

 

Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson—25 carries (180 yards): 75.76 percent.

Chester Taylor—seven carries (17 yards): 21.21 percent.

Naufahu Tahi—one carry (two yards): 3.03 percent.

I recommend starting Adrian Peterson.

 

Houston Texans

Steve Slaton—nine carries (17 yards): 75.00 percent.

Chris Brown—three carries (15 yards): 25.00 percent.

Don’t worry, the Texans’ offense will get it together. Don’t trade away Slaton or Andre Johnson yet. Matt Schaub, on the other hand, I’m not so sure about.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Larry Johnson—11 carries (20 yards): 68.75 percent.

Jamaal Charles—four carries (eight yards): 25.00 percent.

Jackie Battle—one carry (negative one yard):  6.25 percent.

Not a very good offense, but rarely do teams run the ball well against the Ravens.  Since Johnson is getting the bulk of the carries, I would consider him a decent fantasy starter, although Charles was targeted four times to Johnson’s one in the passing game.

 

Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson—15 carries (57 yards): 65.22 percent.

Lendale White—eight carries (28 yards): 34.78 percent.

Johnson was targeted twice for passes and White was targeted only once. This stat is probably unique to this particular game plan, because normally Johnson is a great receiving option out of the backfield on screens and check-downs.

 

Dallas Cowboys

Marion Barber—14 carries (79 yards): 63.64 percent.

Felix Jones—six carries (22 yards): 27.27 percent.

Tashard Choice—two carries (10 yards): 9.09 percent.

At this point, Barber is the only RB on the Cowboys that can be considered an every week start. Neither Barber nor Jones were targeted for a pass, but Choice had two receptions on two targets. 

If there’s any injury, I really like Choice a lot.  If you’re in a keeper league, find out when he’ll be a free agent and draft him the year before.

 

Cleveland Browns

Jamal Lewis—11 carries (57 yards): 61.11 percent.

James Davis—four carries (five yards): 22.22 percent.

There really aren’t any good fantasy options on the Browns. Lewis probably shouldn’t be started unless he’s got a good matchup. He was targeted three times as a receiver out of the backfield, whereas Davis was targeted four times.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Joseph Addai—17 carries (42 yards): 60.71 percent.

Donald Brown—11 carries (33 yards): 39.29 percent.

Donald Brown actually looks like the better running back, but Addai is still the better fantasy start. Even if Brown does turn out to be better, the Colts are the kind of team that wouldn’t significantly increase his carries (or start him over Addai) until the playoffs.

Addai was targeted six times in the passing game and Brown was targeted twice.

 

San Diego Chargers

LaDainian Tomlinson—13 carries (55 yards): 59.09 percent.

Darren Sproles—nine carries (23 yards): 40.91 percent.

I said it during the B/R Writers’ Mock Draft and I’ll say it again. I would rather have Sproles in the ninth round than Tomlinson in the first, and now I think I might just rather have Sproles outright. 

They’re splitting the carries pretty evenly, and Sproles caught five of the seven passes thrown his way for 43 yards compared to Tomlinson’s one catch for one yard. And when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter, Sproles was on the field, not L.T.

If you get points for return yards, Sproles is ridiculous. I bet Sproles has a lot more fantasy points than L.T. at the end of the year, and I think he’ll be taking more and more of the workload as the season progresses.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Willie Parker—13 carries (19 yards): 59.09 percent.

Mewelde Moore—five carries (eight yards): 22.73 percent.

Rashard Mendenhall—four carries (six yards): 18.18 percent.

It looks as though Willie Parker is the only viable fantasy starter on the Steelers, although Moore was targeted for seven passes whereas Parker only had one target.  Unless he gets a lot more carries next week, Mendenhall can be dropped.

 

Oakland Raiders

Darren McFadden—17 carries (68 yards): 58.62 percent.

Michael Bush—12 carries (55 yards): 41.38 percent.

This is a much more balanced timeshare than many predicted and both backs ran the ball well. McFadden is a great start any week, and Bush is definitely somebody to keep your eye on. McFadden was targeted four times in the passing game, Bush was targeted once.

 

Seattle Seahawks

Julius Jones—19 carries (117 yards): 57.58 percent.

Edgerrin James—11 carries (30 yards): 33.33 percent.

Justin Forsett—3 carries (17 yards): 9.09 percent.

Most of Jones’ yards came from one big play, so I would still play him for desirable matchups and sit him for poor ones until he proves he can be consistent. He was targeted twice as a receiver. 

Edge doesn’t look like he’s going to be very productive and he wasn’t involved at all in the passing game.

 

New York Giants

Brandon Jacobs—16 carries (46 yards): 57.14 percent.

Ahmad Bradshaw—12 carries (60 yards): 42.86 percent.

The Giants are a good rushing team and even though neither put up big numbers against the Redskins, both of these guys are good starts on any week. They don’t have to face Albert Haynesworth every week.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook—13 carries (64 yards): 56.52 percent.

LeSean McCoy—nine carries (46 yards): 39.13 percent.

Leondard Weaver—one carry (11 yards): 4.35 percent.

So far this is a lot more of a balanced committee than many would have expected.  Westbrook was targeted four times as a receiver, McCoy was targeted three times. McCoy might be a good flex option by the end of the season.

 

New York Jets

Thomas Jones—20 carries (107 yards): 55.56 percent.

Leon Washington—15 carries (60 yards): 41.67 percent.

Tony Richardson—one carry (two yards): 2.78 percent.

Love Leon Washington this year. I think he’ll be getting more carries than Jones by the end of the year, and I consider him a solid flex starter.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Ray Rice—19 carries (108 yards): 54.29 percent.

Willis McGahee—10 carries (44 yards): 28.57 percent.

Le’Ron McClain—six carries (19 yards): 17.14 percent.

A lot of people are going to be tempted to start McGahee after his two touchdowns, but if he gets less than 30 percent of the carries all year, he’s not going to score consistently. 

He’s going to lose a lot of goal line carries to McClain and he was only targeted one more time than the other two backs as a receiving option, getting five looks to Rice’s and McClain’s four each. 

If he scores again next week but still gets a low percentage of touches, trade him while he’s hot.

 

Arizona Cardinals

Tim Hightower—eight carries (15 yards): 53.33 percent.

Chris Wells—seven carries (29 yards): 46.67 percent.

This is why I included targets. Hightower was targeted 14 times and caught 12 of them for 121 yards. 

I know Wells went higher in most drafts, but Hightower isn’t a bad flex option if he can continue catching that many passes out of the backfield. I wouldn’t start Wells until he starts getting more touches.

 

Miami Dolphins

Ronnie Brown—10 carries (43 yards): 52.63 percent.

Ricky Williams—seven carries (39 yards): 36.84 percent.

Lousaka Polite—two carries (five yards): 10.53 percent.

There were also a few carries by QB Pat White and WR Ted Ginn Jr.  The wildcat offense makes running back production for Miami difficult to predict. I didn’t like this backfield fantasy-wise before the draft, and I don’t like them any better after one game.

 

Carolina Panthers

DeAngelo Williams—14 carries (37 yards): 51.85 percent.

Jonathan Stewart—11 carries (35 yards): 40.74 percent.

Mike Goodson—two carries (one yard): 3.70 percent.

We all knew this would be a committee, but when you look at it in this scope and consider that teams can load up against the Panthers’ running game while Delhomme and the passing offense is in shambles, is DeAngelo Williams really a top six or seven fantasy RB? 

Williams was the target of five passes, Stewart was the target of three.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cadillac Williams—13 carries (97 yards): 48.15 percent.

Derrick Ward—12 carries (62 yards): 44.44 percent.

Clifton Smith—one carry (four yards): 3.70 percent.

Earnest Graham—one carry (one yard): 3.70 percent.

This is bad news for people who drafted Earnest Graham, and great news for people who picked up Williams off waivers. Looks like Williams and Ward will split things fairly evenly, although Williams is the starter.

Ward was targeted three times in the passing game and Williams was not targeted at all.  

 

New England Patriots

Laurence Maroney—10 carries (32 yards): 45.45 percent.

Fred Taylor—nine carries (25 yards): 40.91 percent.

Kevin Faulk—three carries (seven yards): 13.64 percent.

Not a single RB in this high powered offense is a reliable fantasy start. 

Faulk might be the most productive out of all of them, since he was used religiously on third downs and heavily in the passing game. He was targeted eight times and had 51 receiving yards. 

Maroney was targeted twice in the passing game, but Taylor did not have a pass thrown his way. Sammy Morris did not have a carry despite being listed as No. 1 on the depth chart. 

I can’t believe Buffalo lost that game.

 

Denver Broncos

Correll Buckhalter—eight carries (46 yards): 42.11 percent.

Knowshon Moreno—eight carries (19 yards): 42.11 percent.

LaMont Jordan—two carries (five yards): 10.53 percent.

Peyton Hillis—one carry (two yards): 5.26 percent.

Considering Moreno was questionable for the game with an MCL sprain, he may have more upside than Buckhalter in the future.  Even though he didn’t do much with the carries, he still got the same number of chances as Buckhalter. 

When he’s completely healthy he might get more of a workload.

 

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Colts’ Week One: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Indianapolis Colts got a gritty win over the Jaguars, despite losing the turnover battle two to zero.  There was a lot more good in this game than bad or ugly from the Colts’ perspective, even though the score was a lot closer than the team would have preferred.  Division games are never easy, but with this victory the team gets a head start and begin the year on top of the AFC South.

 

The Good

The team defense looked vastly improved from last season, even though the Colts were without their best defensive tackle, Ed Johnson, and arguably their best overall defensive player, Bob Sanders.

The team gave up 228 yards of total offense to the Jaguars, and held bowling-ball running back Maurice Jones-Drew under 100 yards rushing for what seems like the first time in franchise history. 

David Garrard was under heavy pressure from both the Colts’ front four and Larry Coyer’s aggressive blitzes. The Jaguars’ QB completed only half of his passes for a meager 114 yards.

The Colts proved very capable of getting the opposing offense off the field on third downs, as the Jaguars converted only six of 15 attempts. 

Marlin Jackson, who played exclusively as the nickle corner, might just have to stay there all year as Jerraud Powers turned in a spectacular rookie performance with two passes defensed that helped get the ball back in Peyton Manning’s hands.

Team tackling was much better than it was during the preseason, and gap integretiy was nearly flawless as the team only allowed one running play, a 26-yard off-tackle scamper by Jones-Drew, to break into the secondary.  The most notable missed tackles were both on the same play, when Garrard eluded both Dwight Freeney and Daniel Muir, but at least those two missed tackles were in the backfield.

Obviously, the team would like to force more turnovers. They forced none against Jacksonville. It is promising, though, that the Colts’ linebackers and defensive linemen led the team in tackles rather than the team’s safeties.

In addition to the excellent play on defense, the Colts’ special teams played well, specifically containing returns and pinning the Jaguars deep on punts.  Rookie punter Pat McAfee had two punts for 88 yards, both of which put the Jaguars behind their own 20 yard line and one of which was downed on the one yard line.

 

The Bad

When the Colts failed to convert a key third down late in the fourth quarter, the team had to count on their running game to make a yard on fourth down to seal the win, and the running game couldn’t get it.

The Colts did a lot in the offseason to try and improve their rushing attack in order to have a more balanced offense, but in the first game of the season they were only able to muster up 71 yards on the ground.

The team did get a goal-line touchdown from Joseph Addai, utilizing defensive tackle Eric Foster as a fullback.  Also, Donald Brown looked very dynamic rushing the ball, and he was able to convert a critical third down on a run play. 

But the offensive line is not getting enough of a push to really be counted on in critical situations.

The team needs to find a way to convert short-yardage situations on the ground, and if they can’t do that with their goal-line package, maybe they should try spreading out the defense with a thee-receiver set and running the ball.

The did use a shotgun package with both Donald Brown and Joseph Addai in the backfield, and they gained good yardage on a short pass over the middle to Brown.  This formation might be useful for draw plays as well, and could help the Colts in critical short-yardage situations.

 

The Ugly

Anthony Gonzalez suffered an inexplicable injury all alone on the right side of the formation without any contact from a player.  It appeared that he took a misstep in the turf and hyper-extended his knee.  He was unable walk off the field under his own power.

We don’t know his status yet, but if Gonzalez tore an ACL or suffered any season ending injury, it could really hamper the Colts’ offense this year.  The team was counting on his experience in the system to help them replace Marvin Harrison, but now they might have to rely on Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.

 

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Colts’ Waiver Wire: A Look At Cody Glenn

The Colts made an interesting move today, claiming linebacker Cody Glenn off waivers from the Redskins and releasing veteran safety Matt Giordano.  Giordano has been a quality reserve for the last four seasons, and was well known for being one of the fastest players on the team, so the Colts would need good reason to let him go.

This could be good news regarding the injury status of starting safety Bob Sanders, who was recently taken off the physically unable to perform list.  Either the Colts are confident that Sanders will be healthy enough to play, or they really coveted Cody Glenn.

They didn’t covet him enough to draft him with either of their two fourth round picks, one of which was used on defensive tackle Terrance Taylor, whom did not make the final 53 man roster.  Washington drafted Glenn in the fifth round of the 2009 draft, and since the Colts did not have a fifth round pick at all this year they probably weren’t expecting him to fall to them in the sixth round.

Cody Glenn actually entered college as a running back, but eventually won the starting weak-side linebacker position for Nebraska in 2008.  Although he has very little experience on defense, he has played both outside and inside linebacker spots. 

The Colts have had success molding inexperienced players with raw talent before.  Kelvin Hayden played wide receiver for most of his college career, but is now possibly the Colts’ best corner back. If the Colts can groom Glenn the same way they did Hayden, they could end up getting a fifth round linebacker with first round talent. 

Glenn has prototypical size for a Colts linebacker (basically a slightly bulky safety) at 6′ 0″, 244 lbs, and he ran a respectable 4.67 40-yard dash at his pro day workout.  He is a physical tackler, good in pass coverage, and decent at shedding blocks.  He has all the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level; his only downside going into the draft was his inexperience and small (by most teams’ standards) size.

Since he is a still so raw as a defensive player, Glenn probably won’t contribute to the Colts right away other than on special teams.  Giordano was a standout special teams player, so Bill Polian and the Colts’ scouting department must have seen something they really liked in Cody Glenn. 

He’s not guaranteed to be on the team for long, since Ed Johnson doesn’t currently count as a member of the active roster.  Once Johnson’s one-week suspension has been served, the Colts will have to release another player.  The team could elect to release Shane Andrus, since they customarily keep only one kicker.  However, the Colts usually don’t keep three quarterbacks on the active roster either, so anyone, including Cody Glenn, could be fair game.

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Colts’ Preseason: Lost in Translation

The Indianapolis Colts seem to lose nearly every preseason game they play, and then go on to win 12 or more games in every regular season. The team has made it a tradition to lose their final preseason game to Cincinnati; last season they lost 27-7 and the year before they were defeated 14-6. But fear not, here’s a translation of what the most recent preseason match-up versus the Bengals will mean for the team in the regular season.

The Colts Don’t Need Curtis Painter

Jim Sorgi missed most of the preseason with a pulled hamstring, and Curtis Painter performed decently in his absence. But in the half that he played against Cincinnati, Sorgi proved that he is an adequate backup for Peyton Manning.

Sorgi completed 11 of 19 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown, and finished with a 94.0 passer rating despite playing one series against a majority of Cincinnati’s starters. He would have racked up better stats and more points if it weren’t for a handful of dropped passes and turnovers.

Although he has been the Colts’ backup quarterback for several seasons, this may be the first time that Sorgi has looked like a seasoned, accurate passer. Nevertheless, at times Sorgi either didn’t audible to good plays or didn’t have access to the full playbook. The Bengals started blitzing on nearly every play after the Colts’ first scoring drive, and Sorgi had difficulty adjusting. If he had checked to a screen play against the aggressive defense, the Colts might have gained some big yardage.

Still, Sorgi’s performance should give the Colts enough confidence to save a roster spot by releasing Curtis Painter. It is a risk to waive the sixth round pick, but if Painter doesn’t get claimed by another team, he will be a great addition to the practice squad.

 

Jacob Lacey might make the team over Dante Hughes

Jacob Lacey, a rookie free agent from Oklahoma State, may have won a roster spot with his performance on Thursday. Lacey had five tackles, two passes defensed, and an interception in which he made a really nice break on a Chris Henry slant route.

If Jacob Lacey makes the team, another defensive back will likely be waived. Dante Hughes may be the odd man out. Hughes dropped an easy interception that could have prevented a Cincinnati touchdown, and he hasn’t played well enough in coverage or on special teams to guarantee him a place on the team.

 

The Colts still need to tackle better

Even though it’s preseason and it was a meaningless game in which Indy’s reserve players were frequently matched up with Bengals’ starters, the Colts gave up a boatload of yards after contact.

The Bengals rushed for an absurd 296 yards, and although several big runs were a result of defenders being out of position, a lot of those yards came from backup running backs breaking tackles or leaping gracefully over Colts players like gazelles in cleats.

The Colts’ starters will obviously fair better than the second string players, but tackling can be problematic from top to bottom for a team. Deficiencies in this area can be directly related to how you practice, and if the Colts don’t start putting the pads on more often in drills, it could be another rough season for the Indy defense.

Composite NFL Power Rankings

Yaaay, it’s football season!  Yaaay, it’s power rankings time! I may not have the credibility to properly rank the 32 NFL teams, but I can certainly calculate the averages of all the credible Power Rankings, and tell you how I feel about it. 

Here is the 2009 preseason edition of my Composite NFL Power Rankings:

1. New England Patriots

–    ESPN.com 2
–    CBSSports.com 1
–    FoxSports.com 2
–    WhatIfSports.com 2
–    AVERAGE 1.75

My Take: The Patriots don’t have any significant weaknesses, so I would also rank them No. 1 heading into the season.  I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome, get your head in the game!

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
–    ESPN.com 1
–    CBSSports.com 2
–    FoxSports.com 1
–    WhatIfSports.com 5
–    AVERAGE 2.25

My Take: They get a free pass at No. 1 in several power rankings because they won the Super Bowl, but the Steeler’s O-Line needs to show some improvement this season before I would rank them this high.

3. Philadelphia Eagles
–    ESPN.com 4
–    CBSSports.com 3
–    FoxSports.com 3
–    WhatIfSports.com 1
–    AVERAGE 2.75

My Take: The averages put the Eagles right where I would rank them heading into 2009.  The offensive line should improve with the acquisition of Jason Peters, and Philly had a solid draft to give the team depth at running back and wide receiver. I expect them to make a run at the Super Bowl.

4. New York Giants
–    ESPN.com 3
–    CBSSports.com 6
–    FoxSports.com 7
–    WhatIfSports.com 4
–    AVERAGE 5.00

My Take: With Osi Umenyiora back in the mix, the defensive line should be back to its Super Bowl form.  I expect the Giants to have the best defense in the league, and I would rank them just behind New England.

5. Arizona Cardinals
–    ESPN.com 12
–    CBSSports.com 5
–    FoxSports.com 5
–    WhatIfSports.com 6
–    AVERAGE 7.00

My Take: They should have a good offense once again, but I never rank a team in the top five until it displays an effective running game.

6.  San Diego Chargers
–    ESPN.com 6
–    CBSSports.com 9
–    FoxSports.com 9
–    WhatIfSports.com 9
–    AVERAGE 8.25

My Take: The Chargers quite possibly have the most talent of any team in the NFL.  If their defense becomes dominant again with the return of Shawne Merriman, I think this team could be the favorite to win it all.  I would rank them in the top five at least, and possibly even ahead of the Eagles.

7.  Indianapolis Colts
–    ESPN.com 5
–    CBSSports.com 4
–    FoxSports.com 10
–    WhatIfSports.com 14
–    AVERAGE 8.25

My Take:  The Colts had some major changes this offseason, but the team should be a playoff contender once again, despite the coaching changes.  The roster has been retooled in an attempt to improve on their major weaknesses in the running game and on the defensive line.  They should be a top five or six team.

8. Atlanta Falcons
–    ESPN.com 8
–    CBSSports.com 7
–    FoxSports.com 4
–    WhatIfSports.com 17
–    AVERAGE 9.00

My Take:  If Matt Ryan continues to improve, the Falcons will be a great team.  I would rank them borderline top 10, but I don’t think they’re a better team than the Titans.

9. Tennessee Titans
–    ESPN.com 7
–    CBSSports.com 11
–    FoxSports.com 6
–    WhatIfSports.com 15
–    AVERAGE 9.75

My Take: The Titans had the best regular season record last year, and I expect them to be a contender again in 2009 even though losing Albert Haynesworth is no small matter.  Even if the Titans are significantly worse without the big defensive tackle, Jeff Fisher will fake-punt and onside-kick the team to a 12-4 record.

10.  Minnesota Vikings
–    ESPN.com 9
–    CBSSports.com 17
–    FoxSports.com 11
–    WhatIfSports.com 3
–    AVERAGE 10.00

My Take: Does Brett Favre really help them at all?  Maybe for the first eight games, before his arm tuckers out.  I wouldn’t rank the Vikings in the top 10.

11. Dallas Cowboys
–    ESPN.com 14
–    CBSSports.com 12
–    FoxSports.com 13
–    WhatIfSports.com 8
–    AVERAGE 11.75

My Take:  The loss of Terrell Owens will hurt them some, but the Cowboys still have two good receiving threats, a great quarterback, and an excellent rushing attack.  They also have one of the best defensive players in the game in DeMarcus Ware.  They may be as talented overall as San Diego, and I would definitely rank them higher than 11th.

12. Carolina Panthers
–    ESPN.com 11
–    CBSSports.com 18
–    FoxSports.com 8
–    WhatIfSports.com 13
–    AVERAGE 12.50

My Take:  Carolina may have the best one-two punch in the league at running back, and they also have one of the best deep threats at wide receiver to keep defenses honest.  They’re extremely shallow at defensive tackle this year though, and that could really hurt their defense.  I have them around 15th or so in my power rankings, but they could move up the board fast when the season starts.

13. New Orleans Saints
–    ESPN.com 19
–    CBSSports.com 8
–    FoxSports.com 16
–    WhatIfSports.com 11
–    AVERAGE 13.50

My Take:  The Saints obviously have a stellar offense, but can their defense step up this year?  The release of Jason David hints that they may at least have better pass coverage. I think there are a few more teams that should be ranked ahead of them.

14. Baltimore Ravens
–    ESPN.com 10
–    CBSSports.com 10
–    FoxSports.com 12
–    WhatIfSports.com 25
–    AVERAGE 14.25

My Take:  The Ravens always field one of the top defenses in the league, but their offense is totally dependant on the development of Joe Flacco.  This is about where I’d rank them in the preseason, but they are another team that could move up fast during the regular season.

15. Houston Texans
–    ESPN.com 16
–    CBSSports.com 15
–    FoxSports.com 18
–    WhatIfSports.com 10
–    AVERAGE 14.75

My Take:  Mark it down: the Texans will have the best offense in the league this season.  But I still don’t know if they’ll make the playoffs.

16. Miami Dolphins
–    ESPN.com 15
–    CBSSports.com 20
–    FoxSports.com 19
–    WhatIfSports.com 7
–    AVERAGE 15.25

My Take: Last year the “Wildcat” spread like wildfire.  This year, defenses that can stop it will spread like cream cheese.  I don’t have the Dolphins ranked in the top 20.

17.  Green Bay Packers
–    ESPN.com 17
–    CBSSports.com 16
–    FoxSports.com 14
–    WhatIfSports.com 21
–    AVERAGE 17.00

My Take:  The Pack will be back.  B.J. Raji is already looking like a beast in the preseason, and their offense is only going to get better.  I would rank Green Bay in the top 15.

18. Chicago Bears
–    ESPN.com 13
–    CBSSports.com 14
–    FoxSports.com 20
–    WhatIfSports.com 23
–    AVERAGE 17.50

My Take: Bears fans are leaving frankincense and myrrh on Jay Cutler’s doorstep, but he had much better wide receivers in Denver.  Matt Forte makes that offense dangerous, but I want to see Cutler in action before I rank them any higher than this.  Also, their defense couldn’t generate any pass rush with the front four last year, and blitzing every other down isn’t good for a Tampa-two defense.

19. Washington Redskins
–    ESPN.com 20
–    CBSSports.com 25
–    FoxSports.com 17
–    WhatIfSports.com 12
–    AVERAGE 18.5

My Take: Unless he gets lethargic now that he’s a bizillionaire, Albert Haynesworth is going to make this team really good.  The NFC East is a tough division though, and it will be difficult for them to make the playoffs.

20. Buffalo Bills
–    ESPN.com 21
–    CBSSports.com 19
–    FoxSports.com 15
–    WhatIfSports.com 20
–    AVERAGE 18.75

My Take: The Bills could have an offensive renaissance this season, or Terrell Owens could tear the team apart the moment Marshawn Lynch gets done with his suspension.  I would rank them around 25th.

21. New York Jets
–    ESPN.com 23
–    CBSSports.com 24
–    FoxSports.com 21
–    WhatIfSports.com 16
–    AVERAGE 21.00

My Take: The more touches Leon Washington gets, the more points the Jets will score.  Sanchez is going to have some growing pains, but their defense looks like it will fair well with Rex Ryan’s aggressive style.

22. Cincinnati Bengals
–    ESPN.com 24
–    CBSSports.com 13
–    FoxSports.com 28
–    WhatIfSports.com 19
–    AVERAGE 21.00

My Take: The Bengals are tied with the Jets in their average ranking, but the Jets get the nod since they have a better defense (which, if you hadn’t heard, wins championships).  I think the Bengals will be improved, but I still have them ranked in the bottom five.

23. San Francisco 49ers
–    ESPN.com 22
–    CBSSports.com 27
–    FoxSports.com 22
–    WhatIfSports.com 18
–    AVERAGE 22.25

My Take: Teams with quarterback battles that last several years don’t make my top 25.

24. Seattle Seahawks
–    ESPN.com 18
–    CBSSports.com 21
–    FoxSports.com 27
–    WhatIfSports.com 26
–    AVERAGE 23.00

My Take:  Matt Hasselbeck makes the Pro Bowl every odd-numbered year, so I think the Seahawks will rebound this season.  If Aaron Curry helps improve their defense, I like them to contend for the NFC West this season, and I would rank them higher than 24th.

25. Tampa Bay Bucs
–    ESPN.com 26
–    CBSSports.com 23
–    FoxSports.com 23
–    WhatIfSports.com 24
–    AVERAGE 24.00

My Take:  I like Jon Gruden as a commentator so far, and I like Raheem Morris as a coach.  I would rank them higher than 25th, and possibly in the top 20 overall.

26.  Jacksonville Jaguars
–    ESPN.com 25
–    CBSSports.com 22
–    FoxSports.com 25
–    WhatIfSports.com 29
–    AVERAGE 25.25

My Take: The Jaguars had a bad year in 2008, but I think they’ll rebound this season.  They are usually a good defensive team, and David Garrard is a very underrated quarterback.  He can check down to Maurice Jones-Drew every play and pick up somewhere between four and 100 yards.

27. Denver Broncos
–    ESPN.com 27
–    CBSSports.com 26
–    FoxSports.com 24
–    WhatIfSports.com 28
–    AVERAGE 26.25

My Take: If they can convince Brandon Marshall to play, the Broncos could have a dangerous offense that dictates two-deep safety coverage every down even with Kyle Orton at quarterback.  If Eddie Royal is their only receiving threat, teams will just blitz every play and force 17 or 18 Denver turnovers a game.

28. Kansas City Chiefs
–    ESPN.com 29
–    CBSSports.com 30
–    FoxSports.com 26
–    WhatIfSports.com 22
–    AVERAGE 26.75

My Take: I would rank the Chiefs a little higher than 28th.  The defense is reportedly adapting to the 3-4 scheme very quickly, and I think Matt Cassell will be fairly productive despite the team’s suspect offensive line.

29. Oakland Raiders
–    ESPN.com 30
–    CBSSports.com 28
–    FoxSports.com 29
–    WhatIfSports.com 27
–    AVERAGE 28.5

My Take:  Al Davis is crazy.  However, I read some interviews with Darius Heyward-Bey before the draft, and I really liked his mentality.  I think he’ll be a good player, but he’s still on a bad team.

30. Cleveland Browns
–    ESPN.com 28
–    CBSSports.com 31
–    FoxSports.com 30
–    WhatIfSports.com 32
–    AVERAGE 30.25

My Take: Teams with quarterback battles that last several years go right about here in my rankings.

31. St. Louis Rams
–    ESPN.com 31
–    CBSSports.com 29
–    FoxSports.com 31
–    WhatIfSports.com 31
–    AVERAGE 30.50

My Take: I think the Rams will be better offensively than they have been for some time.  They made a good attempt to improve their offensive line in the off season, and they still have a good quarterback and several decent skill players.

32. Detroit Lions
–    ESPN.com 32
–    CBSSports.com 32
–    FoxSports.com 32
–    WhatIfSports.com 30
–    AVERAGE 31.50

My Take: Obviously Detroit deserves to be ranked last after their 0-16 season, but I think they will get significantly better this year as well.  I say they throw Stafford in the fire and let him duke out some tough wins.  He may lose some confidence when the team struggles, but he can always just throw the ball as far and as high as possible and bank on the fairly decent chance that Calvin Johnson will catch it.

Fantasy Football Q&A

Fantasy football drafts are spreading like swine flu, and, in my opinion, fantasy addiction is the more serious condition. Knowledge is power in fantasy sports, and the only way to gain an advantage over your cohorts is to be better prepared than they are.

I asked a group of Bleacher Report NFL Featured Columnists a variety questions about the upcoming fantasy season. They’re answers could help you make some critical decisions during your draft, or give you an idea of what your competition will be thinking.

Have your own opinion? Feel free to answer any of the questions on your own by commenting on the article.

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Colts Preseason: Notes On Game Two

The Indianapolis Colts got a rare preseason win over the Philadelphia Eagles tonight, and their prospective starters got to see some extended action. QB Peyton Manning and the first-team offense looked precise, and the first-team defense seemed stout in the middle.

By the second quarter it was all reserves, but here are some notes from the first quarter of action:

– Manning’s timing looked perfect with Anthony Gonzalez, who caught a perfect fade in the corner of the end-zone for the Colt’s first touchdown, and Joseph Addai, who caught a difficult pass in tight coverage on a wheel route out of the backfield to keep that first drive from stalling. 

-Manning’s timing with Reggie Wayne was never in question, although their 76-yard touchdown hook-up was a result of a blown coverage. Austin Collie started in the slot, but he and Manning had some miscommunications and Collie ran the wrong route at least once. 

-The pass protection was much better, although the battle between Tony Ugoh and Charlie Johnson is just heating up. Although Ugoh was flagged for an early penalty, Johnson blew his matchup on an inside juke move that resulted in a sack of Manning and a fumble recovered by the Eagles. Ugoh ate up his one-on-one matchups for the most part, even on plays that didn’t go for much yardage.

-Donald Brown’s ability to break tackles is going to keep a lot of otherwise doomed drives going this year, just like his play on third-and-five on the Colts’ second possession against the Eagles. That play would have gone for no gain if Brown hadn’t absorbed a hit and sidestepped his man.

-Clint Session is a perfect fit on the weak-side, and he continues to make big plays and big hits. He was credited with four tackles, one of which jarred the ball loose from a potential Eagles’ receiver and another one which stopped an outside run for a loss.

-The Colts are still really bad against screen plays.

-Matt Giordano got beat on the inside by DeSean Jackson for a perfectly thrown touchdown pass from Donovan McNabb, but for the most part the back-up safeties filled in admirably.  Melvin Bullitt registered a sack when he came free on a blitz, and displayed tremendous speed in closing on the quarterback.

-The run defense looked much improved, and adding size to the defensive line seems to have payed off. The Eagles were unable to gain significant yardage up the middle against the Colt’s starters. 

-If rookie Jerraud Powers doesn’t win the nickle corner job, I don’t know what more he could do to prove himself.  He also helped bolster the Colts’ run defense, and made a spectacular play on an inside run during the Eagles’ third possession. Run support is often where rookie defensive backs struggle in the Tampa-2, since a lot of defenses focus on assignments rather than the “flow-to-the-ball” style of play that the Colts emphasize.  

-Special teams still struggled, giving up good field possession on kickoffs and producing little in the return game. Rookie punter Pat McAfee had some good efforts, but only averaged 37.2 yards a punt (down more than 12 yards a punt from his first outing).

 

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