The Atlanta Falcons: Lawrence Sidbury Is Another Small School Wonder

It’s nearly impossible to project how good a player will be based on physical attributes and spot performances alone, but sometimes, it’s hard not to feel all warm and fuzzy about a player’s potential.

Lawrence Sidbury (no. 47 pictured above) is that player for the Atlanta Falcons.

He’s raw and needs to make some tweaks to his overall game before he is ready to be a full-time player but, once he does, he should be a very good defensive end for the Birds.

He doesn’t have the size that most coaches covet in a defensive end, but he has great hands and a natural ability to rush the passer that cannot be overlooked.

Further, a look at the Falcons roster reveals that Coach Smith and company aren’t afraid of stockpiling hybrids (Sidbury is likely better suited, size-wise to be a linebacker, but has the skill set to play defensive end) to run their 3-4 scheme.

It’s a scheme that requires a heady and quick player at the end spot who can provide not only a solid edge rush but also solid run support.

The latter holds the most significant weakness to Sidbury’s game—he is unimpressive against the run.

His inexperience and lack of lower body strength make him prey to being tossed about by bigger, and more experienced tackles. That makes him a liability as a run stopper/defender for the moment.

However, this is something he can improve upon and become more proficient at—by working against bigger linemen—with time. He will learn the techniques needed to better his arsenal of moves and shed those tackles more effectively at this level.

Add to that some time in the weight room and work with a strength and conditioning coach, and he could become just as nasty against the run as he is likely to be against the pass.

However, it’s the things that cannot be taught that make him so intriguing.

For one, he has great recognition skills which allow him to be on-the ball once it’s snapped. Additionally, he’s a solid tackler who never quits on a play; using his reach or large hands to make one last grab before being brought down. Lastly, his motor runs non-stop on every play.

He won’t be beat for a lack of effort, that’s for sure.

Work-ethic. Drive. Game instincts. Those cannot be taught, and Sidbury comes by them naturally—thanks in large part to having played at such a small school.

As a stand-out for the University of Richmond Spiders, he was in on every play; he was sure to make his presence felt no matter where he was on the field. His goal was to be an asset, not a liability.

His performance in the FCS National Championship Game is just a small sampling of his enormous upside. See that here.

That said, his small school status makes him work even harder to prove to himself and, to those that continue to doubt his ability at the next level, that he is a good player. He is the real deal.

In his mind, his work on the field will speak volumes off it. That’s the guy you want on your team.

The knocks on him are plenty, sure, but there are none that cannot be overcome with time, good coaching, and experience.

The Falcons obviously think a lot of the kid, feeling they got a steal in the fourth-round of this year’s draft; he has already been signed to a contract and will likely see the bulk of his action come in the preseason this year.

That said, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get some reps as a situational pass-rusher this season, just so he can get the game experience he needs to mature into a solid end down the line.

Lawrence Sidbury may not be there yet, but keep an eye on this kid. He may be one of the deepest sleepers of the  2009 draft.

NFL Stock Watch: Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling?

As the season approaches and we all start getting our fantasy draft materials in order, it’s important to know which guys are for real and which guys are, for lack of a better word, fakes.

Last season, if you managed to grab DeAngelo Williams or Matt Cassell, you were handsomely rewarded for not only your insight but for your good waiver wire work as well.

This season will be no different; one will need to be astute when making a decision on who will become a fantasy stud and who may fall a bit flat.

Below are ten guys who need to either be off your list or quickly added to it before the first draft pick is done.

Some are likely to be no-brainers while others may not even be on your radar—this last point means that you may find a couple of these guys on waivers post-draft.

In some cases, the projected stats may look tempting (as is the case with Kurt Warner), but you would need to be confident that he will be healthy for the whole year.

Either way, it’s a discussion that is worth having and, one that I know, will spark a little debate.

Quarterbacks

Stock Rising

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

People like to give the kid a bad rap because he’s not you-know-who, but the truth of the matter is, at this stage, he may be better than that other guy.

Rodgers went into last season with spotlights beaming brightly on him, fans and media alike were ready to pounce on him and dissect every throw he made, and he handled the situation with class and professionalism the whole way.

He never once complained about the fairness, or lack thereof, of being compared to one of the greatest quarterbacks in Green Bay history.

Sure, he stumbled a bit, but that was to be expected in his first full season at the helm; even so, he managed to tally 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns (against 13 interceptions), and scramble free for 207 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Not bad for a guy who was passed on by 23 other NFL teams in the 2005 NFL Draft.

He is criticized a bit for some tough Green Bay losses towards the end of the season, but even with that, he delivered 15 touchdown passes in the final seven games—the talent is there.

A more mature Rodgers will enter this season, one that has likely learned from his mistakes of 2008, and he will be ready to solidify his place in the realm of the elite.

2009 Projection: 318 completions, 3,880 yards, 30 touchdowns

Stock Falling

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

By now it is possible that some are wondering when Warner will get the respect he deserves? The answer to that question is “not this year”.

Take that miraculous 2008 season and file it under “won’t happen again”. Here are the facts, Kurt Warner is 38-years old and he has never been healthy in consecutive seasons. Period.

Prior to last year’s run to the Super Bowl, Warner’s record as a Cardinals starter was 8-18. Even more, his TD:INT ratio was 44:31—hardly impressive.

Todd Haley, the pass-happy offensive coordinator is now in Kansas City, leaving Warner with the more conservative Ken Whisenhunt approach—an approach that looks to run-first and control the clock.

Warner may surprise again, and no doubt he will still be solid, just don’t count on him duplicating last season’s numbers.

2009 Projection: 305 completions, 3,660 yards, 26 touchdowns (if healthy)

Potential Sleeper:

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Go ahead and place your bets for Matt Ryan having a sophomore slump this season; you are guaranteed to make someone in your fantasy league very happy by doing so.

Ryan may have stumbled a bit down the stretch, but like Aaron Rodgers, no one should have expected him to be completely perfect in his first full year at the helm.

This season he has a new tight end in Tony Gonzalez and a lot of game experience to draw from; he will correct a lot of the mistakes he made through poor decision-making last year and that will make his approach to the game even better.

He will have to prove himself all over again as the Falcons enter the year with one of the toughest schedules in the league, coupled with the pressure of attaining back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

Ryan will come into 2009 with a target on his back as teams now know what the Falcons offense can do with him at the wheel; they, nor he, are likely to sneak up on any teams this year.

He will have to prove that he can handle being the man all over again—then again, that’s nothing new.

2009 Projection: 314 completions, 3,768 yards, 22 touchdowns

Wide Receivers

Stock Rising

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings

Berrian is a bit of a conundrum. He has the ability to stretch the field and make the big play, but he is prone to stretches where the yards are scarce and the scoring non-existent.

That said, the addition of a certain no. 4, who shall not be named, and a speedy, young rookie by the name of Percy Harvin, could spell a major break-out season for Berrian in 2009.

Last season, in 13 starts, he totaled 48 receptions for 964 yards (20.1 ypc)—putting that into perspective, Anquan Boldin had nearly twice the receptions (89) and only 74 more yards (1,038 for 11.7 ypc) than Berrian.

Add to that, Boldin had a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback (where Berrian suffered through a carousel of mediocrity) and it’s impossible not to see how the sky could be the limit for him this year.

2009 Projection: 64 receptions, 1,038 yards, 6-8 touchdowns

Stock Falling

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Say what you will about the presence of Terrell Owen’s stifling ego and Tony Romo’s inconsistency/injury, it still comes down to one thing when speaking about Roy Williams: 2006.

That’s the season Roy broke free for 1,310 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns—he was a Pro Bowl selection that season as well.

However, since that time, he has been vanilla.

Some apologists say that Roy never had great quarterback play in Detroit and a bad foot kept him down last season, I say this about the former: Calvin Johnson had the same quarterback’s in Detroit and did fine; and this about the latter: uh-huh, yeah. Excuses, excuses.

Here’s the thing, Williams’ is not a No. 1 receiver. He may look like a No. 1 and act like a No. 1, but he’s just a no. 2 in disguise.

He will be good for 800 yards and 5-6 touchdowns. Period. If he has to miss time due to injury, which history says he is likely to do, expect a bit less.

800 yards is nothing to scoff at but when your last No. 1 was a 1,000 yard staple who was a near-lock for double-digit scores, this hardly seems applaud-worthy.

Time will tell what Williams is truly made of but don’t bet on big numbers from him, that would be a mistake.

2009 Projections: 62 receptions, 874 yards, 5-6 touchdowns

Potential Sleeper:

Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons

Putting his recent troubles aside, Douglas is in the perfect position to do some quality damage in the slot this season.

Last year, with limited-receptions, Douglas totaled 320 receiving yards and a touchdown—included in that were two games where he caught for 90+ yards.

He will benefit exponentially from the attention that most teams will likely pay to teammates Roddy White, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez.

His lone competition is Michael Jenkins. Jenkins is in line to get more of the playing time, but is by no means irreplaceable.

The Falcons have shown great confidence in Douglas thus far and have been willing to fit him into the offense whenever and wherever possible (he had 12 rushing attempts and played some special teams as a returner)—they have faith in his ability and won’t hesitate to play him over Jenkins if the scheme fits.

Playing time will be the key to Douglas’ success and, if he gets that, he will produce.

2009 Projection: 38 receptions, 533 yards, 2-4 TD’s (keeper candidate)

Running Backs

Stock Rising

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Reggie Bush may be the best thing since sliced bread but the Saints of 2009 would be wise to rely on Thomas for all the manly work.

Now that Deuce is no longer on the loose in the Big Easy, Thomas should have the job all to himself and, unlike Reggie, he’s better suited for running it between the tackles.

This will be a win-win situation for the Saints if the former no. 2 pick is able to stay healthy this season.

Bush will be free to do what he does best, run and catch in space, while Thomas does the dirty work of gaining the hard yards.

The Saints won’t run it much with Brees at the helm but Thomas has proven that he can make the most of his opportunities (6 of his 9 scores came in the final six games)—no reason to believe the same won’t be true this season as well.

2009 Projection: 189 carries, 870 yards, 6 touchdowns

Stock Falling

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

It may be premature to say that Westbrook’s career in Philly is coming to an end, but the writing is clearly on the wall for the, soon to be, 30-year old Brian Westbrook.

He has never been one to stay healthy and his recent ankle surgery will likely place him a little behind the eight ball where readiness for the 2009 season is concerned.

Last year marked Westbrook’s first, as a full-time starter, that he was unable to reach the 1,000 yard rushing mark (936 yards) and the Eagles drafting of LeSean McCoy says that they may be prepared to look toward the future.

Westbrook will get his carries, no doubt, but he is no longer an elite back and should not be rated as such.

2009 Projection: 200 carries, 705 yards, 5 touchdowns

Potential Sleeper:

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

Donald Brown will be the beneficiary of Joseph Addai’s inability to stay healthy—something he hasn’t been able to do since becoming the featured back in 2007.

Brown is just the type of player that Bill Polian loves; he’s hard-working, unassuming, and devoted to making whatever team he is on better.

Further, there is no question as to his ability to carry the load (in his final season at UConn, he had 367 carries for 2,000+ yards—a 5.7 ypc average) if he is called upon to do so.

Addai will likely be the guy to look towards early for a majority of the carries, but Brown will have ample opportunities to make his presence felt.

Some doubt the rookie will log much time due to his newbie status, but lest they be reminded that Addai came into a similar situation as a rookie; all he did was dual-back his way to a Super Bowl Championship with the Colts in 2006.

Will Brown do the same? We’ll have to wait and see; but the possibility of him flourishing is high and it’s a train worth buying an early ticket to catch.

2009 Projection: 160 carries, 640 yards, 6 touchdowns

Fantasy Wild Card (Possible Keeper Alert)

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinatti Bengals

Somehow, don’t know how or why but, the Bengals tend to end up with a lot of guys who aren’t afraid of a little trouble; Scott is no exception.

He was drafted in the sixth-round out of Abilene Christian and has a lot of potential. He’s quick, he’s elusive, has great hands, and has the talent to become a success if he can keep his head on straight.

It’s not likely that he will play a major role this year but he has impressed so far and may very well be the future in Cincinnati.

As of now, the Bengals could break camp with their RB depth chart set at: Cedric Benson, Brian Leonard, and Bernard Scott; the potential for some minor impact this season is definitely there for Scott.

Keep an eye on this kid, he could be something.

2009 Projection: 45 carries, 247 yards, 2 touchdowns

The Atlanta Falcons Bring a High-Flying Offense into 2009

The Atlanta Falcons find themselves in a precarious position this season, one that they are neither used to nor familiar with—they have a ton of offense.

Matt Ryan, the rookie phenom, will look to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump this season and he will have plenty of toys at his disposal to do so.

First is Michael Turner. He ran wild last season to the tune of 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns. He is the centerpiece of that offense—don’t let anyone tell you differently.

Falcons offensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey, is a disciple of the school of smash-mouth football and Turner is the quintessential power runner who can make the one-cut needed before bruising his way for some serious yards.

Last year, Turner led the league in broken tackles (44) and showed how hard it can be to bring down 244 lbs of solid freight as it makes its way to the end zone.

He was a monster, no doubt, and if he can maintain his health—and the Falcons can lessen that carry total (376) by about 5-8 per game—he is good for at least 1,300 yards and 8-10 touchdowns this season.

His backup is a starter in his own right—Jerious Norwood.

Norwood is, dare we say, the Leon Washington of the NFC South; he does it all. He plays special teams, he acts as a receiving option out of the backfield, and he can run it for days.

He is the perfect change-of-pace back to the big, bruising, Turner because he has blazing speed and offers another dimension to the running game by being a reliable receiver.

Where less carries could set Turner up for even better production down the stretch, more carries puts Norwood in line for, possibly, his first 1,000-yard season as a rusher.

Add to that the fact that he will, likely, be auditioning for free agency. It’s no secret that he can and should be starting for a team in the NFL—he’s better than a lot of other backs with more featured roles.

However, the run game isn’t the only strength this season, the Birds also have some emerging talents at the receiving position.

Roddy White has already shown what he can do, all he did last year was grab 88 balls for 1,382 yards and seven touchdowns.

His talents have been well-documented at this point and he is penciled into the brain of Ryan as the go-to guy on the field.

Beyond him there is Michael Jenkins—he’s decent, but unless you are sleeping under a rock, you have to be aware that Harry Douglas is quickly becoming an underrated talent on this team.

Douglas played limited ball last year, but he will likely be the biggest beneficiary of the Tony Gonzalez trade that the Falcons made this off-season.

Douglas is fast, elusive, and has the skills to get down the field in a hurry. He will be overlooked by a lot of teams who will likely be focusing on Turner, White, Norwood, and Gonzalez.

That will lead to some big plays by the second-year man out of Louisville.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him rack up close to 600 yards with 3-5 scores this season.

Lastly, there is Tony Gonzalez, the ageless wonder will be the upgrade at tight end that the Birds have missed since the release of Alge Crumpler.

Gonzalez brings not only a tremendous skill-set as a receiver, but he is also excellent in pass/run protection and offers Ryan the safety net he needs when all other options fail.

Add to that Gonzalez’s leadership and veteran savvy and the Atlanta offense is sitting pretty in 2009.

It’s hard not to be excited about the Atlanta Falcons this season, despite the lingering questions on the defensive side of the ball, they look like a force to be reckoned with this year and beyond.

Why the Wildcat Formation Will Prove To Be Nothing More than a Fad

Let’s start by saying that the wildcat formation, a formation which allows for a direct snap to the running back followed by an option to either run or pass the ball, could be here to stay.

It can be effective if the team has the right personnel to execute it and the Dolphins showed last season that just having the element of surprise can make it difficult to defend against.

That said, it’s a formation that needs to be logged under the category of “gimmicky” and needs to go the way of the run-and-shoot; disappear.

NFL defenses may have to prepare longer to defend the wildcat but it is stoppable.

The Miami Dolphins were able to fool everyone on the first go-round, but by their second meeting with most teams, it was significantly less effective.

Some believe the addition of Pat White, the multi-tool quarterback drafted out of West Virginia this year, will be the difference. He is the guy who will bring legitimacy to the scheme as a staple of the Miami Dolphins offense. 

I disagree because Pat White is not built to take hits and will not be a consistent enough passer to be a true threat.

Say what you will about his toughness, work, ethic, and running ability, but the fact of the matter is, he will get hit hard.

Over the course of a full season, those hits will be too much for his 6’0” 197 lbs. frame to handle and he will go down.

There goes your surprise element, what’s next?

White may be mobile, but the NFL is not the Big East—he won’t be able to run fast enough to avoid the big hit from a salivating defensive end or a menacing linebacker.

Further, despite the impression he made at the NFL Combine, White is not adept at making either the intermediate or the deep ball throw on a consistent basis when it is well-defended.

He has a decent arm, but he will have to make adjustments on the move; along with his inexperience at reading defenses; one could argue that his presence in Miami will be less boom, more bust.

Dolphin fans will likely disagree, but that’s to be expected.

The wildcat has been used by most every NFL team in one capacity or another, but it’s not something that should be utilized as a significant portion of any pro team’s offense.

It’s simply not practical and, unlike the college ranks, pro defenses are sophisticated enough to make in-game adjustments to stop it dead in it’s tracks—even if they don’t, once the cat is out of the bag, good luck fooling a defensive coordinator the second time around.

Plus, it’s unlikely that you will find a head coach willing to sacrifice first-string level talent to implement the scheme. Truthfully, why would they need to?

The Atlanta Falcons have Jerious Norwood. He took some snaps last season but why use him in this way now that Matt Ryan has shown his level of comfort at the quarterback spot?

By and large, teams that have either a well-established quarterback or a solid running game, don’t need the wildcat and don’t use it.

It may be exciting and might lead to moderate success when used with the right personnel, but it also leaves a good player the target of punishing blows and, by extension, to injury

Consider the fact that injuries can happen minus the gadgetry and it’s easy to understand the trepidation of most teams to employ this method on a regular basis.

No offense to Dan Henning, but this is a fad that will only require one massive, season-ending,  hit to a multi-million dollar player to find the chorus of “ditch-it”critics ascending.

In the meantime, those of us who find it to be an irritating annoyance will take great pleasure in the defenses that are able to stop it cold—of which there will be more than a few.

Until then, we shall likely see the copycats spring up—read a nice article about that, by Angel Navedo, here—some of whom will have success and others that won’t.

However, at some point, most will see that this is nothing more than a temporary fake-out. And, as with most fakes, it is bound to be exposed at some point.

Primed For A Breakout In 2009: The Atlanta Falcons’ Harry Douglas

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver, Harry Douglas, is no stranger to doubters—he’s never been considered a top-shelf receiver—he’s no Roddy White or Randy Moss.

He’s often heard that  he’s too short (5’11”), too light (171 lbs), too skinny or too slow (4.5 forty) to be an elite receiver.

As a senior coming out of Jonesboro High School in Jonesboro, Ga, he wasn’t highly-touted, but he was respectable and garnered the attention of such high profile schools as Georgia, Pittsburgh, and Missouri.

He decided on the University of Louisville and set out to prove that he was a better than average player with some serious pro potential to be had for the team that took a gamble on him.

His career at Louisville started off slowly, but by the time he left he was considered one of the best on his team and in the Big East, garnering first-team honors and loads of respect.

Douglas found his way back to his home state of Georgia via a third-round draft selection by the Atlanta Falcons in 2008 and immediately became a possible candidate for the second wide-receiver slot on the team.

Michael Jenkins would eventually win out but Douglas took his opportunities where he found them and made quite an impression on the team in limited play.

By season’s end he had 23 catches for 320 yards and a touchdown.

Now, entering into his second full-season, he will have the chance to possibly break free and make a name for himself in an Atlanta offense that looks to be potent in 2009.

How?

Well, for one, the presence of Tony Gonzalez is sure to attract some worthy attention as he is likely to get the lions share of Ryan’s short-to-intermediate passes—particularly when he isn’t acting as a blocker for Michael Turner.

However, when there is a pass play, look for Douglas to line up in the slot alongside Gonzalez and cause some mismatches with the opposing defenses.

He will find ample lanes to run through with defenses concentrating on a)Michael Turner and b) Tony Gonzalez. When they do, they will miss the bolt that will be Harry Douglas flying 15-20 yards up the field for the big catch.

He may only be 5’11” and weigh a paltry 171 lbs, but he is deceptively quick and can be counted on to make big plays down field when given the chance—last season, with limited targets (39), he managed to make five catches of 20 or more yards.

Further, Douglas is good enough to work his way into the coveted number two slot if he continues to play as well as he did last season—Michael Jenkins doesn’t have a stranglehold on the position, despite performing well last season, and could find himself pushed if he reverts to his 2007 self.

Either way, the Falcons will continue to find ways to get Douglas into the game—he was often in on special teams plays last year and performed well. 

All Douglas needs is opportunity. The talent is there—for anyone who believes his size will get him into trouble, tell that to the defenders who have had a hard time bringing him down once he has the ball in his hands.

At the end of the day, it may seem like a long shot that Harry Douglas will be anything more than a passing thought, but it won’t be the first time Douglas has had to prove the doubters wrong.

Look for him to open some eyes and close some mouths this coming season.

Less Is More For Michael Turner and The Atlanta Falcons in 2009

Michael Turner finally had his chance to shine last year and he did not disappoint—rushing for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns.

However, if anyone expects Turner to duplicate those numbers next season, they better look no further than Jerious Norwood—the Atlanta Falcons other running back of note.

The importance of a healthy, effective, offensive line is assumed—as is the continued emergence of Matt Ryan as both a leader and a premier quarterback.

Neither of those is being laid to the wayside as a precursor to more of the same for Michael “The Burner” Turner.

However, assuming both remain intact and effective, Turner will also need an efficient handcuff to maintain the level of play he showed he was capable of last season.

Why? The answer is a simple one, and one that no one with a set of eyes or stats can miss—Michael Turner had 376 carries last season.

That’s right, 376.

The fact that he is the primary back has not escaped the attention of this author.  He is the premier running back on the Falcons but, if he is to remain so, he cannot have that many carries again next season.

His sustained success demands the presence of an effective secondary back who can spell him when needed without the team experiencing a significant drop-off in production.

That guy for Atlanta is Jerious Norwood—at least for next season it is as Norwood is entering a contract year and it is not expected that he will forgo his shot at a starting nod should he be given the opportunity by another team the end of next season as a free agent.

It would be easy to point to the guys who are the quintessential workhorse and say a second back is not needed. Turner can thrive on his own again minus the help of another back—Norwood or otherwise.

After all, look at Tomlinson and Peterson—no argument there as every rule has exceptions.

However, consider these backs from the last five seasons and how each of their stats took a dive in the following year after amassing 320+ carries:

• 2007: Willie Parker had 321 carries for 1,316 yards and 2 touchdowns. The following year, he missed time due to injury and only appeared in 11 games for 791 yards and 5 touchdowns.
• 2006: Steven Jackson had 1,528 yards and 15 touchdowns. The following year, he missed 4 games due to injury and saw his yard per game average decrease.
• 2005: Shaun Alexander rushed for 1,880 yards on 370 carries. The following year, he missed 6 games to injury and saw his yard per carry average drop from 5.1 to 3.6.
• 2004: Corey Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards on 345 carries. The following year he missed 4 games to injury and saw his rushing averages take a decline.
• 2003: Jamal Lewis rushed for 2,077 yards on 387 carries. The following season, he missed 4 games to injury and saw his yards per carry go from 5.3 to 4.3.

There’s a trend here that seems to say that big time carries one year equals a decline the next.

Each of the backs mentioned above went to the Pro Bowl in their respective years. However, the years that followed saw a decline in either overall production, yards per carry (YPC), or games played.

The most effective backs in the long term have very good back-ups.

Carolina has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

San Diego has LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles.

New York Giants had Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward.

In every instance, the premier back was still able to be productive and amass top-tier yardage minus the above-average carries.

Atlanta has to utilize Michael Turner a bit less if they want to secure his future as their premier back and keep him fresh for the grueling NFL season—Norwood has the ability to be that guy.

The Falcons may not see him as starting material, but his stats are on par with at least a handful of guys who were starting in other places last season.

As a matter of fact, his 51.7 total yards per game was better than the Jets Leon Washington and the Titans LenDale White—both of whom were spot starters in last season.

At 26-years of age, Turner is young and capable of having another stellar season—there is no denying his talent and worth to the Atlanta Falcons offense.

However, he had more carries last season than in in his entire stint as a Charger. He is bound to get tired at some point and the “Burner” could just become burned out.

If the Falcons can lessen the load by six carries per game, Turner would be on pace for roughly 280 carries next season—based on his career yards per carry average, he would amass roughly 1,350 yards.

Extrapolation is always dangerous but I doubt that any GM in the league would be disappointed with that total.

Even better, Norwood would likely benefit from having an additional 96 carries—possibly allowing him to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career.

This is all speculation and there’s no way to be sure about the outcome of a few less carries for Turner and a few more for Norwood, but the one thing that is certain is too many carries can be a bad thing.

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

If that’s true, then perhaps it wouldn’t be a bad idea to cross your fingers, and hope that Turner proves to be not only a Burner but an iron man as well.

 

The Atlanta Falcons: Five “Musts” for a Successful 2009

There’s a lot of talk about the Falcons right now.

Will they have back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history?

Will Matt Ryan suffer the dreaded sophomore slump?

Will the defense be worse or better after the postseason purge that sent Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, and Domonique Foxworth in search of new jerseys?

Will Tony Gonzalez make the team substantially better?

So many questions.

However, as the season begins it’s approach, let’s just skip to the end and lay it all out there—let’s forget the questions and just go straight to the answers.

The road will not be easy—the Falcons will enter next season boasting one of the toughest schedules this side of hell.

However, it’s not impossible, improbable, or unlikely that they will emerge victorious.

After all, the games are played on the field—not on paper.

Here are five things that must happen if the Atlanta Falcons are going to win the NFC South and contend for an NFC Championship.

 

1. Matt Ryan has to play like Matt Ryan.

Say what you will about Matt Ryan’s inaugural season.

Contend that he benefited from the presence of a stellar run-game in Michael Turner.

Bring up the fact that Roddy White played better than most thought he could.

Remind us that the offensive line played unexpectedly well and likely won’t duplicate that performance again—and when you say that, please do so in front of Harvey Dahl.

I am sure he may have a thing or two to say about that.

Bring all that up and more and the response will be the same: Matt Ryan is the truth.

He’s not a flash in the pan quarterback who got lucky and won a few games.

No.

Matt Ryan is mature beyond his years with the poise and precision of a guy who has been in the league a lot longer.

He’s confident in the system and knows how to make plays.

He only got better down the stretch and with the addition of Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez, he will only get better.

He was good last year and the Falcons were an 11-5 team who nearly made it to the second-round of the playoffs.

He’s only going to get better with a year of experience under his belt and a new weapon to catch his passes.

 

2. Peria Jerry needs to live up to his draft pick.

Recent injury questions aside, we need to see Peria Jerry bring his A-game this season.

John Abraham was the lone bright spot last year on an otherwise forgettable starting defensive line.

Jamal Anderson is still trying to figure out how to play his position, but there is some hope that in this, his third-year, he may finally live up to the hype of the top ten pick the Falcons used on him in 2006.

Jerry brings the attitude, the work-ethic, and the technique you need to see in a good pass-rusher.

He is poised to be the big time guy the Falcons need to bolster the pass rush and put more pressure on the opposing quarterbacks in the league.

If he can stay healthy and be the guy he’s thought to be, the defensive line will be a nasty bunch this coming season.

 

3. Tony Gonzalez has to play well.

The Falcons lacked an efficient tight end last year.

We didn’t have weapons…We had guys filling a space on the field.

Matt Ryan made his money on Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and that meant wherever they went…so went the passing game.

However, the glaring hole that was the tight end spot has not only been filled by a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but by a guy who is a team player and a phenomenal leader.

Last season in Kansas City, Tony Gonzalez racked up 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns.

He won’t likely do that again as offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey favors the power-running game, but Gonzalez will give Mularkey the multi-dimensional player he covets in executing a gadget play or two—adding yet another aspect to what promises to be an explosive offense.

Gonzalez also brings with him a will to win and a whole lot of experience to impart to a rather young team.

If he can instill some of that competitive drive into a few of our guys, watch out!

4. They have to beat the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are a dangerous team.

They lacked a good defense to go with that potent offense and got burned more often than not last year.

The Falcons get the Saints on Monday Night Football this season, and this game will likely determine who truly rules the dirty south.

By the time the two teams meet, the Falcons will either be 4-2 or 2-4, either way the game will turn the tide for the remainder of the season.

The Saints look like they have found their playmaker in Malcolm Jenkins—add to that a healthy Marques Colston and a re-dedicated defense, and you have all the makings of a team that is ready to march on some foes.

The rest of the south isn’t slouching either, but the quarterback questions in Tampa Bay coupled with the Julius Peppers saga in Carolina make me wonder if either of those teams will be worthy opponents this season.

No, for the money the real showdown is between the Saints and the Falcons.

They split the matchups last season, but with the way these teams are setting themselves up this year, it would not surprise me if either swept the other.

 

5. They have to maintain their focus as a team and not get caught up in the hype.

Coach speak is easy.

“Take it one play/game at a time,” “Protect the ball,” “Play smart, don’t make mistakes that can come back and hurt you,” etc.

Coach speak is also true.

The Falcons cannot afford to buy into the hype. They have to take it one game at a time.

The birds have a tremendous shot at being successful this year, despite the schedule.

Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, respectively, had two of the toughest schedules in the AFC last season and all they did was meet up in the AFC Championship game.

Sounds pretty good to me.

The Falcons might not waltz through this season, but there’s nothing wrong with a little two-step—I hear Tony’s a pretty good dancer.

10 Questions for the 2009 NFL Season

The NFL is full of drama. There always seems to be a storyline that is looming or waiting to be resolved–any bets on how long it will be before Brett Favre makes up his mind?

That said, I have posed some questions of my own for the coming season.

This isn’t a list and some of these questions may seem easy to answer, but to those who say that they are, I only have this to ask you—how many of you predicted the Arizona Cardinals would be in the Super Bowl last year?

Yeah, that’s kind of what I figured you might say.

You just never know what will happen to a team as a result of a trade, a release, or a coaching change.

It’s always a crap-shoot.

So, let’s dive in, shall we?

Will the Arizona Cardinals repeat the success of last year?

I don’t know that lightning can strike twice, but here’s what I do know, Arizona will still have Kurt Warner at quarterback and Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver.

That was pretty much all they needed last year to make one very nice run in the playoffs and come within an eyelash of hoisting the Lombardi trophy over their collective heads.

However, Kurt Warner is not getting any younger–never mind that he had 4,583 passing yards and 30 touchdowns during the regular season–and, by the way, he isn’t likely to duplicate those numbers.

Never mind that he may be one of the most underrated quarterbacks of his time.

The truth of the matter is, Warner will be 38-years old by the time the new season begins and despite the playoff run of last season, Warner was 8-18 as a starter for the Cardinals prior to last season’s Cinderella run and, during that span, he often threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns–leading to his being benched in favor of Matt Leinart on one occasion and Josh McCown on another.

Plain and simple, that Kurt Warner still could surface.

Further, the Cardinals will be looking at an improved Seattle Seahawks team and a rejuvenated San Francisco 49ers team in the NFC West–both played the Cardinals tough last year and have just as much of a shot at winning the west as the Cardinals.

If Warner can stay healthy and continue to play consistently, the Cardinals should remain the favorites, but I don’t imagine the road will be easy.

For a deeper look at the Cardinals chances of repeat success, check out this article.

 

Is Terrell Owens the missing piece of the Buffalo Bills playoff puzzle?

I am not a fan of the antics of Terrell Owens. I never have been.

However, it’s impossible to deny his impact once he’s settled in on a new team.

In his first year in Philadelphia, he helped Donovan McNabb to 3,875 yards and 31 touchdowns, on his way to leading the Eagles to a 13-2 record and a spot in the Super Bowl.

In Tony Romo’s first full season as starting quarterback, Terrell accounted for 1,355 of his 4,211 passing yards and 15 of his 36 touchdowns–the Cowboys finished with a 13-3 record.

Trent Edwards is not Romo or McNabb–yet–and he doesn’t have Brian Westbrook or Marion Barber to defer to in the run game, but Marshawn Lynch is as good as any back in the NFL when he’s focused and has looked good so far in camp.

Lynch may be absent for the first three games of the season, but I think that could prove to be Fred Jackson’s moment in the sun.

I don’t know if Owen’s will be the catalyst for a Bills playoff run, but I do know that he is an upgrade to what they already had on the field and if Trent Edwards is the truth that some people think him to be, it could be a very good year for Buffalo.

 

Will the Dallas Cowboys be better or worse now that Terrell Owens is gone?

Owens played for the Cowboys for three years and led them in receiving yards in all three of those years—Tony Romo has never been a quarterback in Dallas without Owens as his go-to receiver.

Will he fare better or worse now that Owens is no longer there to catch his passes?

I look at the roster and know that there is talent on the field but I find myself being a tad bit skeptical of Roy Williams suddenly becoming the number one guy on the field?

Is he ready for that type of responsibility? Does he even fit the bill? I mean, here’s a guy who has only had one truly successful season and it happened three-years ago.

Last season he started seven games and amassed 198-yards with one touchdown and this is the guy you are going to replace Terrell Owens with next season?

That just doesn’t seem like a promising option to me.

Perhaps Miles Austin will use this opportunity to make his move up the depth chart because, frankly, I don’t know how much production D-Town can expect out of Williams next season.

 

Will Michael Vick play this season?

There have been plenty of articles written about this already, so I don’t need to do a recap. Frankly, I feel a little bit like this guy and think the media coverage of this story has gotten ridiculously out of hand.

As a football fan, I can understand a teams desire to have an athlete as versatile as Vick, but as an individual the thought of him returning to the game gives me some alarm.

Sure, he has done his time, but you have to admit the guy is a public relations nightmare in waiting—this article in the Atlanta-Journal Constitution said it best—Vick is going to be a polarizing figure no matter where he lands.

I pity his teammates because, no matter what they do, his presence will overshadow their play.

 

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers repeat?

Don’t tell me how hard it is to repeat as an NFL Champion. It’s been done before and can be done again.

First of all, the Steelers seem to have one of the easier schedules of the 2009 season—significantly less imposing than last years.

They only lost one key player from that ridiculously good defense of last season and I doubt they will have any trouble replacing him.

Further, they retained all of their important offensive players including, Super Bowl hero, Santonio Holmes.

Does all this point to them making a return trip to the Super Bowl and hoisting yet another Lombardi trophy?

It seems like that would be the case but here’s the problem, there was no New England in the playoffs last season—Tom Brady is back this year and you have to wonder how successful the Steelers or anyone would have been if Brady had never gone down in that first game. (Nice article here, which touches on this point.)

Second, will the additions made to the offensive line serve to keep Big Ben upright more often this season? He kissed the turf far too much last year and that has me concerned about injuries cropping up should this again be the case.

Plus, there is still that whole “difficult to repeat” argument that I want to ignore but honestly cannot.

 

Will Tom Brady return to his Brady-esque ways?

The one question that is on a lot of people’s minds is how good will Brady be one year post-knee injury/surgery/rehab?

The Patriots have to be confident in his recovery because they didn’t appear to hesitate at letting Matt Cassel go.

If Brady is in fact 100 percent and ready to go, you have to feel a little uneasy if you are in the AFC because, again, it becomes the Patriots and everybody else.

However, none of us will know if Tom Brady is Tom Brady until he hits the field and takes that first NFL snap.

Many NFL fans both envy and despise the success of Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots and would like nothing more than to see Brady fail next season, but the truth of the matter is this: if he plays well, they will win games and they will be in the mix for a shot at yet another Super Bowl.

No doubt about that.

The only question is will Brady be Brady?

 

Will Matt Ryan lead Atlanta to another winning season?

The Falcons were a surprise to everyone last season. No one expected Michael Turner to run so well behind such a “bad” offensive line.

No one figured Roddy White to be such a great wide receiver.

Who could have imagined that Matt Ryan would mature so far and so fast as to lead a team, that was basically in shambles, to the playoffs in his first year?

So many surprises.

This year finds the Falcons with an improved offense, thanks in large part to the addition of Tony Gonzalez, but with a questionable defense—the Falcons lost some key guys in their defensive unit (Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Domonique Foxworth, and Grady Jackson to name a few).

Can they continue to win or will a healthier and defensively improved New Orleans team play the part of Cinderella worst-to-first this coming season?

Further, will the addition of Tony Gonzalez really be the missing piece of the Atlanta puzzle for consistent success?

No back-to-back winning season’s in this franchise’s history? Wow. That’s a trend that’s begging to be broken, but will it be?

 

If Favre ends up staying retired, what will Minnesota do at quarterback this year?

I have not been a fan of the whole “will he or won’t he” play nonsense. I think that Favre likes being in the center of offseason drama, and that has made him less likable in my opinion.

However, if Mr. Favre stays out of the Vikings quarterback picture, what will they do?

Tarvaris Jackson has proven to be a not-so-great option, at least thus far, and I am not sure that Sage Rosenfels is starting material either.

That leaves the Vikings with unproven talent in both John David Booty and Sean Glennon—it’s no wonder they keep trying to lull Favre out of “retirement.”

The truth of the matter is this, Adrian Peterson cannot continue to be the focal point of the offense. He carried the ball 363 times last season! Say what you want, but that’s not the best way to ensure a long, healthy, career for your franchise player.

If the Vikings continue to make him the workhorse, he’s gonna burn out quick and he may not last five more years in this league.

They have to find a guy who can efficiently manage the offense.

The drafting of Percy Harvin almost guarantees them a playmaker at the wide receiver spot—they just need to find a guy to get it to him.

 

Who will be this year’s Impact/Underperformer from the 2009 NFL Draft?

It’s always nice to see who comes out as the beast of the years draft class.

Last year a few teams got their playoffs tickets punched thanks to some very nice draft additions.

The Atlanta Falcons saw Matt Ryan win Rookie of the Year honors while leading them to an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance.

The Baltimore Ravens went with Joe Flacco and all he did was quarterback them to an AFC Championship Game.

However, the Oakland Raiders saw their pick of Darren McFadden go unrewarded as he battled injury and never found his groove.

Ditto that for the Jaguars Derrick Harvey whose long hold-out and subsequent poor play has not made him a fan favorite in Jacksonville.

Who will be those guys be this year?

Will Crabtree disappoint while Heyward-Bey surprises? Is Stafford really going to be the difference-maker in Detroit?

How good will Aaron Curry be?

Questions, questions, questions.

 

Which team will be this season’s Cinderella story?

Last year, the Cardinals made a run that was unfathomable to think of at this time last year.

In 2007, no one would have thought the Giants would rebound to appear in and beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.

There are always teams that seem to make a run, whether that run takes them all the way to the Super Bowl or just to the playoffs, it’s one that no one that year was likely expecting.

This season begs the question: Who will that team be?

Will it be the New Orleans Saints?

After all, they did have the best offense in football last year and will return with a healthy Marques Colston and a much-improved defense that boasts Malcolm Jenkins as its newest playmaker.

Or, will it be the Chicago Bears?

They have the most favorable schedule of any team in the NFL—their opponents winning percentage is well-below .500 and they finally have a franchise quarterback to lead the way.

Better still, maybe it will be the Cleveland Browns.

The Mad Genius, Eric Mangini, may have been a bit of joke at the NFL Draft this year but he made some nice moves and picked up some quality players this off-season.

If the Browns can get situated at the quarterback position, there’s no telling what they could do this season.

 

These are just a few of the many questions that I will be anxious to see the answers to in the 2009 season.

Mr. Relevant: NFL Guys Who Play in the Shadows of Superstars

The NFL can be a tough place to make a living.

If you aren’t fighting for a good spot on the depth chart—preferably the top spot—then you are fighting to keep the guy behind you at bay.

There are eleven slots on either side of the ball and you can only have one if you are chosen to be the guy.

You know the one I mean: the guy who is the indisputable superstar. The one that everyone points to and says “he’s the one that pays the bills for us.”

Guys like Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, etc. The ones who are so money and they actually know it—yeah, those are the guys I am speaking of when I say “the guy.”

However, the depth chart hardly ends at that one player. How many people outside of New England knew the backup for Brady prior to his going down last season? Sure, us NFL die-hards knew, but the casual fan would have been hard-pressed to know the answer.

Most of the time we hope to never have to know who the No. 2 is for our team; let that one be relegated to garbage time or preseason games. We don’t want to see him.

That said, the No. 2 guy hardly feels that way. He wants that time to shine. He’s paid his dues the same as every other cat and feels like he can be the guy too. The only thing standing between him and that opportunity is an injury or a free agent deal. Until then, he is forced to watch from the sidelines, constantly questioning himself.

He wonders:

Do I fit with what they want? Am I good enough to face the critics and fans who will likely dissect my every move both on and off the field? Can I be the guy who makes the difference between a 8-8 team and a 11-5 one? Am I man enough?

The questions aren’t hard, and I challenge anyone to ask them of the 1,440 players who suit up every week—I doubt there would be many of them who will tell you that they can’t be the best guy on the field.

However, what about those guys who could be starting elsewhere, yet languish behind the guy the team has decided is “the man”?

What about him? Well, he loses productive years and risks injury just to showcase his talents whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Does it mean he will get noticed and be traded? Not necessarily, but for some, the dream does get realized and they find themselves finally able to show the world what they knew all along—they are better than No. 2 or 3 on the depth chart. Don’t believe me? Ask Michael Turner.

So, this is a small sampling of guys who I feel could be starting elsewhere if not for that little issue of being “the guy behind the guy.”

Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Jerious is in a precarious situation in Atlanta. He has always been promised a shot, but never really has gotten one.

Between the revolving door that was the coaching and offensive coordinator carousel and the consistent mediocrity that has been the Atlanta franchise, no one seems to be giving Norwood his due.

Last season, the new brass saw fit to bring in Michael Turner—a guy who knows a thing or two about being stuck behind a superstar, having played behind LaDainan Tomlinson for three seasons in San Diego.

I am sure Norwood could not have been pleased with the signing, but he still managed to chip in 2,138 all-purpose yards for the Falcons while providing an able-body when called upon to spell Turner.

He’s always played solid, averaging 5.0 yards per carry each season since being drafted by the Falcons in the third round of the 2006 NFL Draft.

His receiving ability makes him an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield and his field vision has continued to get better over the years—proving that the time he spent behind veteran, and consummate professional, Warrick Dunn, was well-spent.

His ability to fool defenders with his footwork is a thing of beauty and once he gets into the open field, forget it, he’s gone; he uses every bit of that speed to leave guys looking silly.

So, why isn’t he starting? Right.

Well, he’s not better than Turner, but he’s not appreciably worse than Turner either—if given the right opportunity, I see no reason why he would be unable to get a team 1,200 yards as a starter.

I can name a few teams right now who would take that in a New York minute.

The Falcons seem happy to have Norwood to back up Turner, but just as Turner did last season, Norwood has to be seeing his opportunity to shine coming soon. He’s only 25-years-old and with limited carries, he has a lot of wear left on those tires.

This is a contract year for Norwood and, promise or no promise, I don’t expect to see him in a Falcons uniform after this year if he continues to play the way he has in seasons past.

Also good enough to start on the Falcons: Chauncey Davis, DE

Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys

I have to admit that it’s a hard row to hoe when you are sitting behind Terrell Owens and Roy Williams on the depth chart.  But somehow, Austin has managed to take his chances where he’s found them and with Owens gone, he may finally be able to put a little spit on that shine of his.

Austin is entering his fourth season in D-Town and after last season left him sporting a 21.4 yard per catch average, he is primed for a break-out this year if he starts.

That’s right, if.

The thing is, he still isn’t guaranteed a starting nod even with the departure of Owens.

The Cowboys are slimmer at the wide receiver position, but that does not mean the cupboard is bare—Roy Williams will be the new No. 1 and Patrick Crayton is the likely No. 2.

If anything, Austin will be competing for a starting position, not guaranteed one.

Austin has the size and the hands to be a very good receiver in the league. Any doubts about his ability to play on a higher level should be starting to dissipate by now.

I know he doesn’t have many starts and his yardage totals are minuscule, but blame that on the depth chart, not Austin. Clearly the kid has some serious talent if the Jets were interested in picking him up prior to this year’s draft.

Dallas knew enough to keep him on their own roster but he’s only signed for one year and this is his time to show he’s worthy of being more than a role player.

He’s a tough receiver who uses his size well and is not afraid to go over the middle and rip the ball out of the air using that nice vertical of his.

Any raw ability he had coming out of Monmouth has since been molded and shaped into one very nice receiving option. No way he should be sitting behind anyone at this point. Austin needs to start, maybe not as a one, but definitely as a two.

He’s good enough.

Also good enough to start on the Cowboys: Martellus Bennett, TE

Seneca Wallace, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Seneca Wallace has been wasting away on the Seahawks roster for years. He’s now 28-years-old and hasn’t had a significant shot to do anything more than play a little quarterback every once in a while.

Many say that he is a serviceable backup, but by no means is he QB1 material.

I beg to differ.

Last season, in eight appearances, his line reads as follows: 1,532 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, and an 87.0 quarterback rating—not bad for a guy who really has only had 12 pro starts in his career.

Some suggest a position switch and say that he needs to consider doing the switch now while he can still be productive (he’s played some wide receiver and some feel that he could be a decent option at that position). After all, Hasselbeck returns to the coveted spot this year and Seneca won’t likely find himself with many new opportunities to show what he can do.

Again, I say, he should stick to his guns and continue to make his case for playing quarterback—if not for Seattle, then maybe some other team will be willing to give him a shot. 

Last season showed me that if he is given a chance to do well, he will.

When Holmgren was in Seattle, he made no bones about Hasselbeck being his guy.  He wasn’t considering any other options—that’s not a secret.

However, with new coach Jim Mora at the helm, I see a chance for Seneca to prove his worth and make an argument for being considered for the role.

Hasselbeck may be returning, but there are no guarantees that he will return to his 2007 form and our last images of him were not pretty—seven starts, 1,216 yards, five touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for a 57.6 quarterback rating.

Wallace may be dreaming and maybe I am reaching to believe that he can play quarterback in this league, but consider this: Shaun Hill is almost a lock to be the Niners quarterback next season and when you compare the two, Wallace’s numbers are fairly similar to Hill’s.

If you are in the camp that thinks Shaun Hill is only average, then you are not likely to be impressed, but there again is my point—if Hill is good enough to start, then so is Wallace.

Also good enough and since departed: Maurice Morris, RB—now with the Detroit Lions

Melvin Bullitt, DB, Indianapolis Colts

If you follow Colts football, this guy’s name is hardly news to you, he’s been solid for the Colts thus far in his career and he’s only entering his third season.

Last season, with big time safety Bob Sanders on the mend, Bullitt came through big time—leading the team in interceptions, with four. Three of those interceptions came with the game on the line and helped to seal some key Colt’s victories.

Bullitt also came up huge in pass-defense, deflecting nine passes and tallying 72 tackles.

A guy like that deserves a starting gig and he no doubt made a case for that with his play this past year—perhaps the Colts are thinking of doing something to be sure this guy doesn’t exit stage left once his contract comes to an end in 2010.

He could be starting on any number of rosters right now, and with Bob Sanders suffering a production decline, I have to scratch my head as to how Bullitt hasn’t been more prominent before now.

Also good enough to start on the Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, WR

Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota Vikings

I think Chester has had some pretty rotten luck during his eight-year career. He spent the first half of it sitting behind Jamal Lewis in Baltimore—relegated to spot duty and hardly relevant.

He jumped ship in 2006 in order to find freedom to be “the man” in Minnesota and proved he was worthy of his contract by rushing for 1,216 yards and catching 42 passes for 288 yards.

Not bad.

However, he again found himself looking at the glass half-full as Chester was good, but newly drafted Adrian Peterson was better.

Still, in eight starts of his 2007 season with the Vikes, he managed 844 yards and a 5.4 yards per carry average.

Taylor may not be up there with an Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, or Matt Forté, but he could certainly give you what Warrick Dunn, Earnest Graham, Fred Taylor, or Edgerrin James could give you—all of whom were starters at some point last season.

He may be a valuable asset in Minnesota right now because they are using Adrian Peterson quite a bit and Taylor provides a nice respite without them having to sacrifice quality, but why would anyone want to play second fiddle?

As of right now, Taylor and Peterson make for one very dynamic duo for the Vikings and, true enough, Taylor is closer to the end of his career than the beginning.  But that said, one shot at glory in an eight-year career seems like a bit of a waste for such a talented guy.

I doubt he goes anywhere, but in my opinion, he is as good as most of the other backs in the league who have had a chance to start.

NFL Watch: Five Guys to Keep an Eye on In 2009

It’s not uncommon to see a guy come into this league with a ton of potential or expectation.

No.

The very definition of a first-round draft pick being used on a guy, particularly in the top ten, seems to suggest that they are great already or will be soon.

However, there are some guys in the league who I think are “stealing money.” They came out with all the pomp and circumstance, but have largely been average and only mildly worthy of their millionaire status.

This list is meant to point out a few of these guys and say, “hey, dude, get your act together.”

In other words, it’s time for them to “put up or shut up.”

 

First on my list is Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, TE

Vernon Davis came out of the 2006 NFL Draft a monster, but his play has been anything but that since he arrived.

He has proved to be nothing more than an undisciplined, unfocused, and unappreciative ball player. All of which has hindered him in his development into a truly elite football player.

This will be his fourth year in the league, and it’s now or never for the young man who made a big splash at the 2006 NFL Combine after running a 4.38 forty and showcasing a 42″ vertical to go with an excellent pair of hands.

Honestly, though, I can’t blame it all on Vernon.

He has seen quite a revolving door at both the quarterback and the offensive coordinator position and his most recent coordinator, Mike Martz, saw fit to use him more as a blocker than a pass catcher—a role he has done well at but was clearly not drafted to fill.

Further, who can be consistent when you don’t know which quarterback will be throwing the rock your way?

Alex Smith, J.T. O’Sullivan, and Shaun Hill have all had their shot at the brass ring.

Even more, there is still the presence of Frank Gore and, now big-time draftee Michael Crabtree. 

So, what’s a poor, former, first-round pick to do?

Davis may not have any control over how he’s used or where, but he can control his play when he gets his chance.

He needs to limit his drops and rediscover the solid hands he displayed at both the combine and the University of Maryland, get better at running more precise routes, and start using that sculpted body of his as a battering ram because for all that strength, he doesn’t have many yards after the catch—he’s fairly easy to take down for a guy his size.

Most importantly, he needs to lose the attitude.

I like to see passion in a player as much as the next guy, but his “passion” is less fire and brimstone than it is powder and wind. His clueless sideline antics and his unwarranted ego need to go and this needs to be the year.

His new offensive coordinator, Jimmy Raye, actually likes to use the tight end in his offensive scheme and if Davis ever was going to thrive, it’s going to be under Raye.

Plus, Davis did seem to get a bit better after the Singletary tirade last year. Perhaps Coach Singeltary is the guy who will be able to light a fire under the young guy and make him advance to that next level.

 

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints, RB

Listen, before all the Saints fans try and run me over with a concrete truck, let me explain.

Reggie is not a bust—not yet. The thing about him is he’s not at as advertised.

When Bush came out, he was touted as the savior for the New Orleans Saints franchise. Unfairly so, but still he was, and for all the good vibes he put out, he has been average as a running back.

He has yet to top 1,000 yards rushing in even one of his three seasons. Numerous injuries have, seemingly, kept him off the field more than on it, and his inability to play smart with the ball in his hands has left him open to a bit of an issue with ball protection—in 2007 alone he had eight fumbles.

I realize that he has the versatility to be good anywhere on the field and his prowess as a kick returner cannot be denied, but the fact remains, he was supposed to be an every-down back and, as it stands right now, the Saints are paying for a multi-purpose back who will likely only be available 8-10 games a year.

Is he really worth that kind of money to be that guy?

When he plays, he’s money, no doubt. However, durability over the long haul has got to be a concern.

Another surgery and rehab is behind him and it’s time for Reggie to break out and prove, once and for all, that he can play effectively for an entire season.

He needs to really shine this year.

 

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, RB

Benson got off on the wrong foot with the Chicago Bears, the team that drafted him fourth overall in 2005 and intended to use him as their feature back.

He held out for all of training camp and once he finally signed his contract, he showed up under the belief that he was still the best man for the job despite not having practiced much with his new team.

It would be hell for him from that point forward as he would battle injury after injury and never quite gain enough momentum in the Bears’ offense to be important.

By 2008, the Bears were fed up with Benson and his overly inflated ego and decided to roll the dice with another running back.

That guy’s name was Matt Forte’ and although his arrival was supposed to light a fire under Benson, it eventually led to his release altogether.

Now, under the revamped offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals, Cedric will get the opportunity to prove that his bang is worth the buck.

In ten starts with the Bengals last season, he managed 747 yards and two scores—all while standing behind a mediocre offensive line.

With a new season approaching and a better opportunity of success with the addition of talented left tackle Andre Smith, Benson may be able to finally show that he is a top tier back in this league.

No time like the present, I say.

 

JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders, QB

He hasn’t been starting all that long, but he’s been unimpressive in the starts he has had. His numbers are largely unimpressive and, for a guy who was a No. 1 pick, he has not shown that he is going to get appreciably better.

Blame it on the management, the personnel, or the overall inability of the Raiders to draft well on the offensive side of the ball but, whatever the case, Russell seems ill-suited to be standing behind center.

However, I don’t think Russell has had the tools to succeed in Oakland yet. Gracious knows the season he spent under Lane Kiffin was a disaster because Kiffin was, well, a disaster.

Tom Cable is supposedly the guy who is going to bring stability and leadership. However, his competence seems to be in question after the drafting of Darrius Heyward-Bey in this years’ draft.

I don’t know how much Russell will progress this season, but here are a few facts that I feel cannot be disputed:

1.  The Raiders have a talented, young running back in Darren McFadden who can do special things on the field. If he can stay healthy and they can incorporate him into the offense more, then Russell will be better—Russell played better when the run game was more consistent.

2.  Zach Miller is one of the most talented tight ends in the league and at 6’5″, makes for a very nice target as long as Russell can get him the ball.

3.  The offensive line was bad, but by no means the worst in the NFL. Russell just needs to learn how to be a better leader and make smarter plays.

In short, Russell is in a bad situation, but it’s not the worst by any means and a lot of his issues have nothing to do with the Raiders.

He throws too many bad passes, he fumbles way more than he should, he seems to be having problems reading the defenses and scanning the field in an efficient manner, and when he finds an open receiver, he has lacked the ability to key in on him and connect on the throw.

All of these are largely rookie issues that can be corrected with good coaching, and this is the year to find out if Russell is ready to take the next step.

 

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals, QB

Leinart was meant to be the franchise guy, and I believe that he still can be.

As of now, Kurt Warner will be calling the shots, but let’s be honest…he’s not the future of this team. Another year or two and the Cardinals will need to be making another switch.

It’s time for Leinart to show that he has the moxie to get the job done. He may be riding the pine for now, but he needs to show that when Warner’s time is done, he is the man that can continue to lead this team into contention for the foreseeable future.

He has seen his relevance to the team decrease over the last couple years, but yet his popularity has gone up.

Some feel that his “Hollywood” status is more important to him than his football status.

However, I see a guy making the most of what could be labeled an embarrassing situation.

After all, here’s this 26-year old, former Heisman winner, who was a top fifteen pick, playing second-fiddle to a guy who many thought was done after the Rams released him.

It’s got to be a bit of a head scratcher for Matt.

That said, as the new season approaches, he will be playing for the No. 2 slot and he needs to win that position by a landslide if he wants to start packing away the confidence for the time when the Cardinals will need to anoint their next guy.

That means becoming a better passer, making better decisions on reads, and being the leader that his teammates need.

If he fails to do so, I think his time in Arizona may be over sooner rather than later.

 

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