Mock Fantasy Draft: Day 1

It’s official.

I’m in full on fantasy football mode.

I can’t eat, sleep, or write articles without thinking about fantasy football.

I’ve created a league for my fraternity. 

I’ve created a league for some online friends.

I’ve spent every hour upon the hour doing research upon schedules, depth charts, and the most trivial stats the internet can offer; all in the name of getting that extra “umph”.

I also know that I’m not the only one.

I’ve stated many times that true fantasy football knowledge comes from admitting you know nothing and can not predict the future.

You can only make predictions based on the present.

So my ultimate goal is to scour the present for enough information to make it my own fantasy football gift of knowledge.

If there is one thing I do in fantasy football better than most, it’s drafting players. 

I never reach for players to early, I make the right reaches when I need to, I gamble on the right rookies, etc.

One of the most under-rated facets of  preparation for fantasy football are mock drafts.

Every year, ESPN runs mock drafts up until seasons beginning.

I go through nearly a 100 mock drafts per fantasy preseason in an attempt to gain knowledge as to how the rest of my drafts will play out.

My preseason chart looks like an NFL playbook.

These mock drafts provide solid intel as to how people around you feel about certain players. They let you know if the general public thinks a certain guy is over-rated or under-rated. They let you know how early you’re going to have to reach for a guy.

All of this is vital information.

My goal is to chronicle one mock draft a day and jot down my inner monologue, allowing you, the reader, and insight to the mind of a guy who cares way too much about fantasy football. 

 

Before I start this journal of sorts, let me give you a few draft trends that I live by when it comes to fantasy football:

1.Never trust a Vikings receiver. Ever.

2. Packers and Lions players should be taken with a grain of salt. These players have four games against the Vikings and Bears.

3. Taking too many rookies leads to bad teams. Taking the wrong rookies leads to average teams. Taking the right rookies leads to titles.

4. If a Quarterback or Wide Receiver is in the AFC West, take them. All four teams have porous pass defenses. 

5. Your first two picks are your rocks. These are the consistent guys. Don’t take risks here. Don’t get cute. Take the best player but don’t get fancy. After that, the rest of your draft should be a balance of risk and consistency. 

6.Players are ranked on a bang vs. buck theory. If I can get Brian Westbrook in the 3rd round, he is a top 3 RB for the price you paid for him.

And with that, we are ready to go!

 

DAY 1.

3rd Pick-Steven Jackson RB-St. Louis

I enter the draft with the 3rd pick. Not bad. If this was a real draft I would do everything I could to trade down. The top two picks are a tier above everyone else.

Since you can’t trade in mock drafts I go with Steven Jackson over Matt Forte and Jones-Drew. 

Jones-Drew is an unproven risk and I prefer Jackson over Forte. Very simple.

Brees goes 9th. I have a feeling people will reach for him all day. 

I jot this down in my “things to look for” list.

 

18th Pick-Steve Slaton RB-Houston

I lucked out. Slaton is ranked as the 16th best player. I have him ranked as the 4th. I would have taken him 1st round but I had a feeling I could get him in the 2nd round. 

It was a gamble I was willing to take and it paid off. Slaton is going to be a top three running back if you can get him in the 2nd round.

If you get him in the 2nd round you increase the bang for buck theory I live by.

My eyes now set to Roddy White. I have the 23rd pick, five away. Roddy White is 8 spots down and covered up by receivers like Reggie Wayne and Terrell Owens, both huge draws.

 

23rd Pick-Roddy White WR-Atlanta

Another steal for me. Personally I have him as the 3rd best receiver behind Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Megatron is stuck on a horrible team and Roddy has protection in the run game, Tony Gonzalez, and a very good quarterback.

The first three rounds are essential. These are the rounds that will set your team for the first four weeks.

It is around week 4 that people decide to start making trades.

My usual order for this round is: consistency, consistency, potential.

 

38th Pick-Kurt Warner QB-Arizona

The biggest mistake I see people make is not taking the best player when he is there, and instead try and fill their roster as soon as possible.

Yes, I plan on reaching for McNabb next round but it is always good to

A. Have a superstar backup you can trade

B. Have a back up for risky players with injury histories.

Rounds 1-3 make your team good. Rounds 4-10 make you a champion.

 

43rd Pick-DeSean Jackson WR-Philadelphia

My big reach of the draft. This is either going to cost me because I passed up on the now under-rated Braylon Edwards, or turn my team into a juggernaut.

I took him now because McNabb, Knowshon Moreno, and DeSean Jackson were on the board. 

I didn’t think I would be able to get all three and receivers hadn’t been taken yet. 

Just my luck, someone reaches for Moreno right after I pick. 

I jot that into my “things to watch list” as well.

 

58th Pick-Tony Romo QB-Dallas

Someone unexpectedly reached for McNabb. It’s still a win-win. Romo will have a bounce back year and he is going VERY LATE as you can see. 

I jot his place into my “things to watch list”

This makes me glad I grabbed Warner earlier.

 

63rd Pick-Lee Evans WR-Buffalo

I, like many others, have had Lee Evans ruin many a fantasy team over the past three years. His lack of consistency is frustrating.

I think T.O should fix that.

 

78th Pick-Owen Daniels TE-Houston

Expecting a big year from Owen Daniels this year. He and Cooley are the last bastion of top tight ends. 

Don’t reach for any TE except Jason Witten. There are lots this year.

I look up and see Beanie Wells is still there with 10 spots between he and the top.

I have the 83rd pick, five away.

This is a good thing.

 

83rd Pick-Beanie Wells RB-Arizona

Beanie Wells is my first serious risk. Roddy White and DeSean Jackson are potential.

Beanie will be the starter. Downside is the Cardinals have a horrific schedule against top run defenses.

I now go and search for my mid-round steals. They are:

Kevin Walters WR Houston.

Michael Crabtree WR San Francisco.

Donnie Avery WR St. Louis.

Lance Moore WR New Orleans.

They’re all there, with Donnie Avery being the lowest rank.

Good.

 

98th Pick-Kevin Walters WR-Houston

A. Someone jacked Crabtree right before this pick.

B.As you can see, take Houston Texans players

C.Kevin Walters should go in the top 50. He never will. Reach for him.

D.Lance Moore is still here despite Drew Brees passing for 5,000 yards. People are dumb sometimes.

 

103rd Pick-Donnie Avery

This is called a steal. 

With Holt gone Donnie Avery will be the man in St. Louis.

With how bad their defense is, you can expect the Rams to be pass happy.

Thus why I drafted the pass-catching Steven Jackson and the speedy Avery.

 

This concludes Day One of my Mock Draft Breakdown.

Stay tuned for the next installment when I update the following “Things To Watch”:

Donovan McNabb’s position.

Steve Slaton’s second round steal ability.

People reaching for Drew Brees.

Tony Romo’s fall from grace.

I will also be tracking how many wide receivers are drafted in the first three rounds so you know when you pounce.

Until then, happy mock draft hunting!

Fantasy Breakdown Day Two: The Philadelphia Eagles

Don’t take Kickers until the last round.

Don’t take Minnesota receivers.

If a player is in the NFC North and plays the Lions twice, he should be taken a round early.

These are a few of fantasy football’s “unwritten rules”.

The most important, and frustratingly confusing, of these rules is the following:

Rookies don’t make good fantasy players. . . most of the time.

If you stay away from rookies and just draft given talent, you will most likely finish in the upper level standings—you just won’t win.

I shall place this in caps so the message can reach through the forest of words and reach even those readers who are taken easily by sparks.

ROOKIES. WIN. CHAMPIONSHIPS.

That is the unspoken secret of fantasy football.

They are unproven commodities.

They are high risk and often return very little reward.

But the greatest ventures in capitalist history came from huge risks, and the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward.

The reward of a good rookie is that it turns a great team into a juggernaut. That rookie gives you extra commodities that you can trade away to further stack your team or fill holes in it.

That rookie can replace your struggling starter.

No draft in recent memory gave risk takers better rewards than the 2008 one.

So without further ado, I present to you the top 10 fantasy rookies of the 2008 draft class.

Calvin Pace: Fall of a Veteran, Rise of a Rookie

Not so much a fall as it was a short stumble. 

Calvin Pace was suspended for four games due to breaking the league’s substance abuse policy. 

A response to the suspension was quickly released(as they always are)by the Jets:

“This is a situation that resulted from an over-the-counter dietary supplement that contained a substance that I did not know violated the league’s policy. I am responsible for what I put into my body, and I should have paid closer attention to the league’s guidelines.

 

“I regret that this has happened and apologize to my teammates, the entire Jets organization, as well as the fans. Hopefully, this does not distract from our ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl.”

 

Dietary supplements? 

Again?

Didn’t he learn his lesson from last year’s debacle between Pat and Kevin Williams, the interior defensive tackles for the Vikings when they nearly missed a playoff game due to diuretics?

With how much money these individuals make and how important their bodies are to their career, you would think they could stop “accidentally” taking illegal substances.

Pace was brought in by the Jets in 2008, signing a six-year, $42 million deal that includes $22 million in guaranteed money.

He was worth nearly every penny in his freshman campaign with the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

(I can’t help myself. That is hands down the greatest chant in sports.)

He was second on the team in sacks with seven, he lead the team in tackles for a loss with 12, forced five fumbles, and recovered four. 

Rex Ryan came to the Jets with lips watering. 

Long known for his work with the top notch line backing corps of the Ravens, Ray Lewis and Bart Scott to name a few, Rex Ryan couldn’t wait to transform Pace into one of the league’s premier outside rushers.

Now he is impatiently searching for ways to transform this defense into one of the league’s best without him. 

The early replacement candidate for Pace is last year’s highly touted rookie, Vernon Gholston. 

Ryan has already experienced transforming a college defensive end into a star outside linebacker during his work with Terrell Suggs. 

While Gholston lacks Suggs’ tremendous pass rushing skill and nose for the ball, he has similar tools to Ryan’s former pupil.

It’s a shame none of those tools came out of the shed last year.

For the most part, only two other options have arisen from the Jets’ mini camp: 

Willie McGinest and Pace’s depth chart back-up Marques Murrell.

Let’s just say Jets fans are not too enthused. 

As we’ve seen over the past years, the NFL isn’t too high on letting 1st round picks go to waste; so it is safe to assume Gholston will be getting the nod coming into the season.

Either way, Rex Ryan will be earning his lucrative contract this year.

He just might have to work harder than he intended.

The New York media isn’t keen on three-year plans.

 

2009 NFL Preview: Sophomore Running Backs

(This and all subsequent articles will now be available on InsidetheGridiron.com, a new website created by BleacherReport’s own “The Rant”)

 

The year 2008 was a precocious one for professional(and fantasy) football to say the least. 

LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook found themselves hitting the mythical age of 30; the kryptonite for NFL running backs. 

Sean Alexander found himself old.

Ronnie Brown found himself teamed up with King Willie from Predator II.

Adrian Peterson turned into Tracy McGrady.

Mike Shanahan had made it his personal objective to ruin the fantasy football running back; preaching running back by committee over the 300 yard monster.

Worst of all was that it was working and catching on—both Super Bowl teams used a team of running backs over the standard one.

Looking back, the 2008 NFL Draft was the mother of all “slump busters”; the world’s sexiest fat chick so to speak.

While Darren McFadden was regarded as the headliner of a mediocre crew of running backs, ironically, he ended up as the least productive of the group. 

Today, I will be analyzing each rookie running back from the 2008 Draft who made an impact, and search for chances of a sophomore slump.

(Alright, as of now, I will think of another word for sophomore slump. It has become over-used and I’m officially sick of it. If anyone has any ideas for a new name let me know and I promise you will receive credit every time I use it.)

Tim Hightower

2008 Stats

ATT YDS AVG TD AVG DRAFT

143 399 2.8 10 118.5

 

2009 Schedule

San Fransisco

@Jacksonville

Indianapolis

Houston

@Seattle 

@New York

Carolina

@Chicago

Seattle

@St. Louis

@Tennessee

Minnesota

@San Fransisco

@Detroit

St. Louis

Green Bay

 

Out: Edgerrin James

In: Beanie Wells; Larod Stephens-Howling

 

The first time you watched Old School I’m going to guess you or someone you were with said, “Oh man, the cowbell guy is funny. He should get his own movie.”

Don’t feel bad, we all thought this. 

Then Will Ferrell, the cowbell guy, got his own movies and they were good. . .

At first. 

Then the next 1,500 movies sucked because everyone had gotten used to his schtick, and we realized he was better used sparingly at certain spots.

That’s Tim Hightower in a nutshell. He is the NFL’s Will Ferrell.

Throughout the first 7-8 games of the NFL season, we saw Hightower snatch touchdown after touchdown and wished he would just get the start.

Then he finally did and we realized he was only good at the goal line.

Thankfully, the Cardinals coaches did as well and placed Edgerrin James back in the starting lineup.

Good news: Edgerrin James is now gone.

Bad News: The Cardinals spent first and seventh round picks on running backs.

Worse News: The Cardinals schedule. Look at the killer run defenses lined up:

Minnesota Vikings: Rank No. 1, 76.9 rushing yards allowed per game

Chicago Bears: Rank No. 5, 93.5 rushing yards allowed per game

Tennessee Titans: Rank No. 6, 93.9 rushing yards allowed per game

New York Giants: Rank No. 9, 95.8 rushing yards allowed per game

San Fransisco 49ers: Rank No. 13, 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game

Jacksonville Jaguars:Rank No. 13, 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game

 

If you’re keeping count that’s six teams in the top 13 of run defense, four in the top 10, two in the top five, and the number one overall run defense. 

Toss in the simple fact that no team drafts a running back in the first round if they feel comfortable with the one they’ve got, and you have a bad situation for Mr. Hightower this season. 

Kevin Smith

2008 Stats

ATT YDS TD REC REC-YDS 

238 976 8 39 286

 

2009 Schedule 

@New Orleans

Minnesota

Washington

@Chicago

Pittsburgh

@Green Bay

St. Louis

Seattle

@Minnesota

Cleveland

Green Bay

@Cincinnati

@Baltimore

Arizona

@San Fransisco

Chicago

 

Out: Rudi Johnson

In: Maurice Morris

 

For those of you who just got done seeing Transformers II, the nickname for the 2009 Lions: Decepticons, go. 

Calvin Johnson is Megatron—an apt nickname for the physical monstrosity.

This would make Matthew Stafford The Fallen, the leader we just learned about.

Last, but certainly not least, would be the second in command, Starscream, or as he is more commonly known, Kevin Smith. 

Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league Kevin Smith put together a surprisingly efficient campaign. 

Good News: With Rudi Johnson gone and Maurice Morris in Kevin Smith should see a lot more carries. 

Bad News: The Lions are in the NFC North and forced to play Chicago and Minnesota, two of the league’s top 10 run defenses, twice a year.

Worse News: The NFC North’s AFC counterpart is the AFC North, featuring the Steelers and the Ravens, the two best run defenses not named the Vikings.

The Lions will be playing four games against the league’s top three run defenses.

Add in games against San Francisco and an early matchup with the Redskins, and the outlook for the Lions run game is quite bleak. 

Chris Johnson

2008 Stats

  Att    Yds     TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

 251   1,228    9      43      260           1

 

2009 Schedule

@Pittsburgh

Houston

@N.Y Jets

@Jacksonville

Indianapolis

@New England

Jacksonville

@San Francisco

Buffalo

@Houston

Arizona

@Indianapolis

St. Louis

Miami

San Diego

@Seattle

 

Out: Lendale White’s eating habits. News out of Tennessee is that he is slimming down.

In: Javon Ringer

 

Good News: Chris Johnson has stated that he is ready to break loose and do this running back thing solo. 

Bad News: Lendale White is still a Titan and they got a steal with Javon Ringer in the fifth round.

Worse News: Five of the first eight games are on the road and those first eight games are loaded with solid run defenses.

This schedule is similar to what the Titans faced last year and we saw how little of a problem that was. 

From a fantasy standpoint, Lendale White and Javon Ringer will be snatching touchdowns near the goalline. This isn’t good.

On the bright side, if you are in a points per reception league, Chris Johnson will make up for his points by being the only RB on the team with reliable hands.

Matt Forte

2008 Stats

Att      Yds       TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

316   1,238      8        63      477           4

 

2009 Schedule

@ Green Bay

Pittsburgh

@ Seattle

Detroit

@Atlanta

@Cincinnati

Cleveland

Arizona

@San Francisco

Philadelphia

@Minnesota

St. Louis

Green Bay

@Baltimore

Minnesota

@Detroit

 

Out: Kyle Orton

In: Jay Cutler

 

Matt Forte was the steal of the 2008 NFL Draft. He would’ve been the steal of every fantasy football draft if not for the guy coming up next. 

He can do a little bit of everything: run hard, break long runs, catch the pass, and block.

Good News: Jay Cutler means less guys in the box.

Bad News: Four of the first six games are on the road. Thankfully, the news isn’t devastating. The four road games are against porous run defenses.

Worse News: Like the rest of the NFC North, the Bears are forced into games against the Ravens and the Steelers. Unlike the Lions and Packers, the Bears don’t have to play themselves. 

 

What makes Forte such a great player in both the NFL and fantasy football is his ability to be the best receiver on the field. In points per reception leagues, Matt Forte is an absolute monster and will make up for lost points in the rushing game with receiving touchdowns.

The Bears are still waiting for Hester to become their star receiver and in the mean time have yet to draft a WR in the first round.

Meaning Forte is still the best receiver on the team.

And you don’t bring Jay Cutler in to throw less.

Steve Slaton

2008 Stats

 Att      Yds       TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

 268    1.282     9        50       377           1

 

2009 Schedule

New York Jets

@ Tennessee 

Jacksonville

Oakland

@ Arizona

@ Cincinnati

San Francisco

@ Buffalo

@ Indianapolis

Tennessee

Indianapolis

@ Jacksonville

Seattle

@ St. Louis

@ Miami

New England

Out: Ahman Green

In: Experience for Slaton

 

If you haven’t seen the Real World: Cancun then you need to. 

I had a strong feeling it was going to work out based on the sum of its parts; a mix of temperamental hot chicks with boyfriends they couldn’t wait to cheat on, standard All-American hot guy, pretentious guitar player, the standard gay guy, and Cancun on Spring Break.

Unsurprisingly, it all worked out.

In 2008, Steve Slaton was the Real World: Cancun.

All the parts were there; a top notch offense missing its essential RB, the two running backs ahead of him being the always injured Ahman Green and Chris Brown, and a speedy college back who fit the Texans blocking scheme to perfection.

Good News: Ahman Green is gone, meaning no more vultured touchdowns. They also play the oft porous Indianapolis defense twice a year.

Bad News: The Titans and Jaguars are on the schedule twice. 

Uh. . . More Good News: Slaton played some of his best games against the league’s top defenses. 

In his two games against Jacksonville, Slaton averaged 70 yards receiving, 80 yards rushing, and a touchdown.

Against the Titans, Slaton averaged a whooping 108 yards rushing against one of the league’s top defenses. 

Slaton was the consensus RB steal of every fantasy draft. The savvy leagues saw him go in the late 13th to 14th rounds.

Most leagues saw him go un-drafted.

With an easy schedule, no decent backup in sight, and an explosive offense ahead of him, Slaton is lined up for another spectacular season.

Just know he is going in the first round of every draft.

The Others

Darren McFadden. Oakland still has Vargas leading the way. McFadden will have an improved season but nothing to write home about.

Jonathan Stewart. Deangelo Williams will still be getting most of the carries as we saw Stewart fade towards season’s end.

Felix Jones. Valued as a return man and thirrd down back. Not worth drafting in fantasy leagues due to the emergence of Tashard Choice

Rashard Mendenhall. Injured most of last season, Mendenhall should make an impact for the champion Steelers, but Willie Parker is still the man.

Ray Rice. The Baltimore backfield is too crowded for Rice to make a fantasy impact. He will still make the Ravens a better team though.

Tashard Choice. With his spectacular performance against the Steelers, Choice has moved himself into the backup behind the Barbarian. That means he’s a solid handcuff but won’t be seeing many touchdowns.

Ryan Torian/Peyton Hillis. The Broncos drafted Knowshon for a reason.

The rookie running backs of 2008 brought the NFL new life. 

They kick started several teams on the way down and elevated a few teams into playoff contention. 

The spotlight is now on the Running Back class of 2008 and after analyzing each contender, I’m throwing my hat on Steve Slaton to shine the brightest.

 

 

The Top 10 Fantasy Football Sleepers

With the conclusion of the NBA draft, basketball season is all but over—well, excluding the inevitable horrendous Mike Dunleavy signing.

This can only mean one thing. . . .

Criminally audacious fantasy football previews bordering on a ethereal indulgence to stupidity. More bad picks than any Clippers GM could possibly make in a lifetime.

(4 sentences and already 2 Clippers references. I still have the magic!)

“True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you smartest of all”–Socrates

It is because of the above quote that I have such a solipsistic outlook on my fantasy knowledge compared to the infinite 20 something college kids who think they know everything.

It’s all a guessing game. I can’t predict a a future that doesn’t exist.

I don’t know who is going to get hurt.

I don’t know what coach is going to lose his mind and start chucking the ball 40-50 times.

I don’t know which rookie is going to decide his college days of smoking weed and roping in every freshman blonde with an inferiority complex are behind him.

All I can do is make predictions based on current trends.

And with that, I bring you my 2009-2010 Sleeper/Busts list.

The sleeper category will be filled with upstart rookies, top guys that are going 2-3 spots too low, guys going 2-3 rounds too low, and guys who will break out.

I do a lot of research using team websites, looking through countless other fantasy writers previews, and personal knowledge. My goal is to try and bring sleepers everyone else isn’t talking about.

Last year my big sleepers were Steve Slaton Tim Hightower. Not a bad year.

Don’t go taking these guys over proven all-stars but make sure you keep an eye on them.

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