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Fantasy DC’s Week Two: Buy/Sell Report
Published: September 22, 2009
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FantasyDC provides you with every weeks Buy/Sell choices. Look back at Week One and then look at the new names for Week Two.
Brett Celek PHI, TE
Eight receptions, 104 yards, 11 targets
Jon Dove: Buy—Brett Celek has a firm grasp on the starting tight end position on an Eagles team that loves to throw the ball to tight ends. Even with McNabb out, Celek had a huge game. Right now I would start only Gonzalez, Witten, and Dallas Clark ahead of Celek.
Billy Smith: Buy—If you need a tight end, Celek looks like he would be a solid grab. He had a nice game against the Saints and is one of the few Eagles that isn’t hurt. Celek should see a lot of passes thrown his way over the next few weeks.
Fred Jackson BUF, RB
28 carries, 163 yards, six receptions, 25 yards
Jon Dove: Buy—Wow! What a game! Marshawn Lynch’s illegal activity hasn’t cost him his freedom, but it looks like it will cost him the starting running back job. Fred Jackson has gotten a lot of touches and has produced. He is a factor in both the running and passing game. There should continue to be running room for Jackson because of Owens and Lee Evans on the outside.
Billy Smith: Buy—Jackson looked great against the Bucs. I agree with Jon, Lynch’s job is in danger. I think having Lynch back will give Jackson a breather and make him more productive down the stretch. You know the Bills are going to have to give the ball to their running backs in December in Buffalo!
Darren Sproles SD, RB
10 carries, 26 yards, six receptions, 141 yards, one TD
Jon Dove: Buy—I am counting LT down and out and it is now Darren Sproles’s turn to shine. Sproles is a game breaker and his ability as a pass catcher almost guarantees a decent fantasy game each week. You may have to give up a lot to acquire Sproles, but it will be worth it.
Bill Smith: Hold—Sproles looks good catching the ball out of the backfield. He isn’t going to light it up rushing, however. I don’t think LT is the back he was three years ago, but these two complement each other well. Sproles is a really good third down back, but if he has to carry the load for four or five games, the Bolts are in trouble.
Mario Manningham NYG, WR
10 catches, 150 yards, one TD
Jon Dove: Sell—Mario Manningham is more than likely a waiver wire addition for your team, but if you happen to own him, sell high. Receivers are always a good trading chip and Manningham’s explosion has his value really high. Ship him off to a team that’s wide out light and you should get a good return. I do believe that Manningham will have at least one or two more good games, but he will lack consistency. So in a trade I would make sure you get someone that can help your team. Also when Manningham has that big game don’t kick yourself because you have to look at week-to-week production.
Bill Smith: Buy—He looked like Manning’s go-to-guy last night. He was making great catches all over the field. Defenses aren’t going to commit to doubling him because they have to leave a man in the box to stop Brandon Jacobs. He is the No. 1 wide out on a Super Bowl contender with an All-Pro quarterback. He would be a nice addition to most fantasy teams.
Clinton Portis WAS, RB
19 carries, 79 yard, two receptions, nine yards
Jon Dove: Sell—The Redskins’ offense is terrible so sell Clinton Portis right now. I tend to stay away from players on bad teams. Example Steven Jackson on St. Louis and Portis on Washington. Neither of these guys will put up the numbers worthy of their draft positions. Trade Portis before his value drops any lower. Moving him will save you money on aspirin the entire season.
Billy Smith: Hold—Wait, Jonathan, I’ll let you finish, but Clinton Portis is one of the best fantasy backs of all-time (sorry, couldn’t help it)! He is going to continue to get touches and it’s too early to jump ship on a back of this caliber.
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Fantasy Depth Chart’s Week Two Sits & Starts
Published: September 17, 2009
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Last week was a great week of both real and fantasy football.
Below is a small selection (at every position) of my weekly starts and sits. To read the complete list click the link at the bottom of the page! Now lets take a look at last week’s article to see the hits and misses before diving into week two predictions.
Hits: Adrian Peterson (Start), Steve Smith (Start—only in PPR leagues though), Calvin Johnson (Sit), Larry Johnson (Sit), Clinton Portis (Sit), Kurt Warner (Sit), Tony Gonzalez (Start), John Carlson (Start—damn good of me too), Kellen Winslow (Sit), Tom Brady (Start—way to save me late Tom), Randy Moss (Start—all around player)
Misses: Santonio Holmes (Sit), Devin Hester (Sit—one play changes everything), Carson Palmer (Start—very concerned now), Terrell Owens (Sit), LaDainian Tomlinson (Start—way to roll your ankle)
RBs
Start:
Darren McFadden/Michael Bush @ Kansas City Chiefs. Both of these guys are very good starts this weekend. Bush is likely to be the better of the two in non-PPR (unless Fargas returns) while McFadden should be productive in the passing game to a tune of worthy RB2 in PPR leagues.
Sit:
Julius Jones @ San Francisco 49ers. Jones saved his week on Sunday with a long run late in the game. Don’t expect another miracle run this week against a very physical 49ers defense. Put Jones back where he belongs…on your fantasy bench.
QBs
Start:
Brett Favre @ Detroit Lions. The Lions stink. Its that simple. Getting your hands on the old one for a spot start in deeper leagues could prove to be fruitful. Favre will not be a weekly contributor so don’t rush to the waivers for him. But those playing the matchups should pay some interest in the legend.
Sit:
Kurt Warner @ Jacksonville Jaguars. He is on here again. Another tough physical defense that is built to stop the run will run over the Arizona Cardinals. A lot of owners will feel the need to start this highly drafted QB but don’t play the fool, things aren’t right in Arizona right now. Hopefully, the Cardinals will right the ship and save some fantasy teams later in the year.
WRs
Start:
Greg Jennings vs Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals defense was good enough for the Denver Broncos (minus their last play on the field) but going against the GB passing attack is different. Their nickel package could see a lot of time on the field this Sunday.
Their base 4-3 was built to stop the Steelers and Ravens, I suspect this week we’ll get to see how they will handle WR loaded teams. I expect Jennings to beat the deep man at least once on Sunday.
Sit:
Antonio Bryant @ Buffalo Bills. The Bills showed the NFL that they can properly gameplan. They restricted the production of an excellent passing attack by willingly double teaming throughout the game.
Bryant (injured or not) will stand no chance against a defense primed to shut him down. The Buccaneers will need to pound the ball hard before they are able to move it up the field with Bryant.
TEs
Start:
Owen Daniels vs Tennessee Titans. The Texans would be smart to mimic the Steelers use of Heath Miller against the Titans. A safety valve is exactly what Schaub will need against the Titan rush throughout the day.
Used properly, Daniels could be in for a PPR owner’s dream day even if he doesn’t score a TD. Given that Daniels can get vertical faster than Miller, Daniels still maintains some big play potential and should be on nobody’s bench.
Sit:
Antonio Gates vs Baltimore Ravens. I’m going out on a serious limb here talking down a top tier TE. However, I feel the Ravens are one of the few teams that can be physical with Gates while providing tight coverage in the secondary. Reed could be the great equalizer removing Gates as a downfield threat throughout the game.
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NFC Team-by-Team: Notes, Targets, and Looks
Published: September 16, 2009
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Each week I will be looking over each team and pointing out noticeable trends that can help you dominate your fantasy league.
Links to both the full article and remaining NFC teams can be found below.
Philadelphia Eagles
Donovan McNabb is likely out this week, which means the job belongs to Kevin Kolb…for now. Jeff Garcia was signed to be the backup and Michael Vick is due back from suspension in Week Three.
It’s hard to get a true idea of what the split in carries will be between Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, because McCoy got a ton of carries once the Eagles pulled away from Carolina on Sunday. The split was 13:9 (4:3 in targets) in favor of Westbrook, but expect that gap to be wider this weekend.
DeSean Jackson (seven) and Brent Celek (seven) both saw a bunch of targets, well more than third place Kevin Curtis (four). Hank Baskett was cut, which means Reggie Brown or Brandon Gibson will be active in Week Two.
New York Giants
The split in carries was 16-12 in favor of Brandon Jacobs over Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs surprisingly was more involved in the passing game, hauling in two balls, while Bradshaw caught three.
The receiving situation is slightly clearer. Steve Smith was the main man with eight targets/six catches. Kevin Boss, Mario Manningham, Domenik Hixon, and Hakeem Nicks each had three or four targets. With Nicks out for a few weeks, Ramses Barden or Sinorice Moss will see work.
Dallas Cowboys
The running back split showed Marion Barber leading the way with two-thirds of the carries. He had 14, while Felix Jones (six) and Tashard Choice (two) did the rest. No targets for Barber or Jones.
Roy Williams (seven), Jason Witten (seven), and Patrick Crayton (six) were not surprises at the top of the target list.
Washington Redskins
Ladell Betts didn’t steal much of the spotlight from Clinton Portis. The carry split favored Portis 16:2.
Antwaan Randle El was demoted to the slot role this season, but led the team in targets with nine. He caught seven of them for 98 yards. Still, Santana Moss should be the top fantasy option here despite only two catches on five targets. Malcolm Kelly, the new No. 2 WR, caught his only target for a short gain.
Chris Cooley caught seven of his eight targets. That production will continue all year.
Chicago Bears
It was a rough outing for Matt Forte, who failed to record a catch on just one target. Owners, especially those in PPR leagues, should be concerned about that as a lot of Forte’s value in 2008 came from the fact that he caught 63 balls. Forte did carry the ball 25 times, compared to just three for backup Garrett Wolfe.
Earl Bennett had a whopping 13 targets and caught seven of them. He is certainly a player to target right now. Devin Hester caught all four of his targets. Cutler looked to the tight end 10 times: Greg Olsen (six times), Desmond Clark (four times).
Could rookie Johnny Knox make an impact this year? He was also targeted four times and was the team’s third option at WR.
Detroit Lions
Kevin Smith struggled to 20 rush yards on 15 carries, but scored on the ground and recorded 52 receiving yards on seven catches (nine targets). If the rookie Matt Stafford continues to play it safe and dump the ball off to Smith, he will be fantasy gold.
Andre Brown (one) and Terrelle Smith (two) had the team’s only other RB carries.
Calvin Johnson was targeted 13 times, but caught just three for 90 yards. Bryant Johnson had eight thrown his way.
There was not much love for the tight end, as Casey Fitzsimmons (one) and Will Heller (two) accounted for the only three targets.
Green Bay Packers
Ryan Grant is the man for the carries (16:3), but DeShawn Wynn was targeted four times, compared to just once for Grant.
Greg Jennings (eight) and Donald Driver (seven) saw the most targets as expected. Jordy Nelson (two targets) and James Jones (one) failed to catch a ball. Donald Lee caught all three of his targets, but for only eight yards.
Sleeper candidate Jermichael Finley caught just one ball.
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Week One: Buy/Sell Report
Published: September 15, 2009
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Patrick Crayton WR, DAL
Four receptions, 135 yards, one TD
Jon Dove—Hold—The Dallas offense put up a total of 462 yards. Romo seemed on top of his game and spread the ball around nicely. Crayton will have value if Romo continues to look impressive. However, I would be cautious when trading for Crayton. This huge game could raise his immediate trade value and mask the fact that he is no better than a No. 3 fantasy WR.
Billy Smith—Buy—I think Tampa Bay is transitioning to a different defensive scheme and had a lot of blown assignments. However, Tony Romo showed he is going to distribute the ball more with TO out of the picture. Crayton is gong to get a lot of balls thrown at him this season, he showed he can get open and hang on to the ball. I would try to acquire Crayton, if you can.
Earl Bennett WR, CHI
Seven receptions, 66 yards
Jon Dove—Buy—Bennett was by far Cutler’s top target. This was Bennett’s first NFL game with a catch. As Bennett gains experience he could be a major fantasy contributor. This game was impressive, but not blown away impressive so you should be able to buy low.
Billy Smith—Buy—Cutler is familiar with Bennett from their days lighting it up at Vandy. This should factor well for Bennett, especially early in the season.
Cedric Benson RB, CIN
21 carries, 76 yards, one TD, four receptions, 32 yards
Jon Dove—Buy—The Bengals’ offense didn’t impress, but Benson was a bright spot. It is a good sign that he was more involved in the passing game. I expect Carson Palmer to improve his play as the season continues, which would open more running lanes for Benson.
Billy Smith—Buy—Having a back that is going to have a solid rushing and receiving game is a nice commodity. I think Cincinnati will get better on offense, especially in the passing game. This will only help Benson’s numbers.
Jay Cutler QB, CHI
17-of-36, 277 yards, one TD, four INT’s
Jon Dove—Buy—His stock is going to be way down after this poor performance. Cutler threw the ball 36 times, which shows the Bears will be passing a lot more this year. He will not have another game like this and will be extra motivated to overcome this terrible performance.
Billy Smith—Sell—I think Cutler got out of Green Bay lucky he didn’t have more interceptions. The Bears need to run the ball more and I think Lovie Smith realizes this. Cutler has yet to prove that he is an elite quarterback. The Bears’ top two receivers are a converted cornerback and a wideout that caught his first professional pass last night. Cutler has potential, but he is a third tier quarterback right now.
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Week One: Waiver Wire Rush
Published: September 15, 2009
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After completing Week 1, these are the guys you want to watch out for.
Go For It:
Joe Flacco, BAL, QB (60 percent owned in 10 team format) – Look, the Ravens aren’t throwing 43 times every game. But they NEVER threw 43 times last year, and they must have a lot of faith in Flacco to let him toss the ball all over the field like he did Sunday. Flacco isn’t just a game manager like he was last season, so snag him up as a situational starter in all leagues. (Target: All leagues)
Steve Smith, NYG, WR (26%) – Eli Manning is still trying to find out who he can trust with no Plax, and he put a lot of faith in Steve Smith Sunday. Add to that the “3rd Year WR” rule and Hakeem Nicks going down, Smith is in line to be the Giants No. 1 target this year. He may not be a top 20 WR, but he’s not that far out. He is an easy WR3 and should be taken in all formats (Target: All leagues, PPR+)
Laurent Robinson, StL, WR (4%) – Robinson outplayed Donnie Avery in every way, and he just misplayed a chance for an additional big play. Steven Jackson had very few targets out of the backfield which opens up more passes for the receivers. Keep a close eye on him next week, but don’t be too late in snagging him up. (Target: 12 team leagues).
John Carlson, SEA, TE (86%) / Brent Celek, PHI, TE (36%) / Todd Heap, BAL, TE (21%) / Ben Watson, NE, TE (6%) – Carlson will be hard to come by, but between these four players you have a 200 percent chance of getting one, and that should be all you need. Watson was targeted more Monday night than any time in the McDaniels regime. Heap looks just like he did in his all-pro seasons, and Carlson should be an easy all-pro this year. McNabb knew he had Celek as a safety net, and whoever the QB is should McNabb miss starts will use Celek the same way. There should be no TE issues the rest of the season if you pick one of these four up.
All Things Depending:
Ricky Williams, MIA, RB (32 percent) – Ricky is a solid role player in Miami, but he shouldn’t ever crack your starting line-up with the exception of 14+ team leagues. With that said, he is at the very top of back-ups, and is a necessary handcuff for Ronnie Brown owners regardless of league size. (Target: 14+ leagues, Ronnie Brown owners)
Leon Washington, NYJ, RB (55%) – Although Jones is still the main man with the Jets, Washington is being used as much as he can and will be very big as a pass-catching RB. Should be on most 12 team leagues, and could find his way onto 10 team PPR teams. (Target: 12-14 team leagues, all PPR leagues)
Patrick Crayton, DAL, WR (36 percent) – Crayton had a monster game, but 80 of his 135 yards were on one play against a bad Bucs secondary allowing big plays left and right. Romo didn’t lock in to one player, and Crayton did nothing to break away from Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and Roy Williams. Don’t feel bad if you missed out, and don’t pick him up unless it is an obvious upgrade. (Target: 14 team leagues)
Hold Off For Now:
LeRon McClain, BAL, RB (50 percent) – McClain sharked a TD and caught three passes. That was good enough for 12 points in PPR leagues, and he will get some interest with that. But he shouldn’t. Ray Rice was a monster Sunday and will be so all season. Again, my philosophy is to let owners pick up players like McClain and drop a player in a better situation. Let this happen to you. (Target: TD only leagues only)
Isaac Bruce, 49ers, WR (38%) – Bruce had the best game of any 49ers WR. And really that’s the only reason people would grab him right now. Josh Morgan, Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis likely will all outplay Bruce the remainder of the year, and Shaun Hill doesn’t have enough ball to give to everyone. Look for Bruce to be average at best the rest of the year. (Target: N/A)
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