NFC Team-by-Team Notes: Position Breakdown

This week (NFC) and next week (AFC), I will be focusing on one particular position for each team.

I will discuss the status of the players at that position over the first four weeks of the season and, in cases where it is appropriate, explain which players are likely to progress (in a positive or negative direction) going forward.

At the end of each team’s paragraph, I will give advice on how you should treat each of the players in a 12-team league. Finally, I will leave you with an interesting team statistic, which might be unrelated to the position analysis.

Note: A player who is a handcuff to one of your stars is obviously more valuable to you than he is to the other owners. That said, if I call a team’s second string RB “waiver wire fodder” or “a guy who shouldn’t be owned”, but you own that team’s top RB, you should probably upgrade that player a notch. Keep that in mind.

 

Dallas Running backs:

Tashard Choice has seen 33% of the team’s carries this season due (for the most part) to injuries to both Marion Barber (39%) and Felix Jones (19%). He’s also been thrown to significantly more than his counterparts, seeing 12% of the targets.

When Jones and Barber are active, Choice will, of course, be relegated to the third RB position on the depth chart, but should see more action throughout the season than initially anticipated.

Jones’ stock also has to be considered going up. He’s averaging over 10 yards per carry on 21 carries and will continue to see a respectable share of the workload as the season goes on…assuming he can stay healthy.

The only problem for these two guys (and Barber) is each other. The three will continue to steal carries and looks from each other, but fortunately for them, Dallas should run more than most teams as the season goes on…assuming they aren’t playing from behind a lot.

12-team league advice: When all three are healthy, Barber is a must own, Jones is bench material, and Choice is waiver wire fodder and should only be owned as a speculative hold.

19%/11% – Same figures for both Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. They indicate the percentage of team targets and team receptions that have gone to them. Tony Romo has clearly split the workload evenly.

New York Wide Receivers

Steve Smith has been a fantasy superstar so far this season. Eli Manning has thrown his way on 35% of his pass attempts and Smith has delivered, accounting for 42% of he team’s reception total.

Smith’s 44 targets lead the NFC and his 34 catches are tops in the NFL.

Mario Manningham has been impressive in the WR2 slot, but dropped several balls in week 4. Nonetheless, 25% of Manning’s passes have gone to him.

If he continues to struggle hanging onto the ball, WR3 Hakeem Nicks could step up now that he is healthy again. Nicks was targeted 7 times in the 2 games he was active.

Domenik Hixon missed the last two games, but was targeted just six total times in the first 2 weeks. He is unlikely to contribute much this season as the WR4. Sinorice Moss and Derek Hagan are the WR5 and WR6, respectively. Both have seen little action.

12-team league advice: I’m still treating Smith like a second-tier wide receiver, but he’s been playing like a first-tier WR. Make sure he’s in your lineup. Manningham’s drops concern me, but he should be owned and starting for someone. Nicks is a great player to have on your bench. Don’t bother with any other WRs on the roster.

3.6/1.3% – The Yards-Per-Carry and TD-per-carry figures for Brandon Jacobs. Both are very underwhelming, but should improve as the season goes on. Jacobs will get his touchdowns.

 

Philadelphia Wide Receivers

Injuries have impacted this, but DeSean Jackson is obviously the go-to wide receiver. He has been targeted on 22% of the team’s passes.

Kevin Curtis missed a game, but still has seen 11% of the team’s passes go his way. Jason Avant is the WR3 and has also seen 11% of the targets.

Jeremy Maclin (8%) is becoming more involved each week. Reggie Brown (2%) only saw action in week 3 due to Curtis’ injury.

When looking at these numbers, consider that Kevin Kolb has thrown 84% of the team’s passes this season and that will change with Donovan McNabb expected back in week 5.

That being said, the Eagles love to spread the ball around. Jackson likely will see near 20% of the looks, while Curtis shouldn’t be too far behind. Avant and Maclin will see a few a game.

12-team league advice: Like Smith, I still consider Jackson a 2nd tier WR despite his play so far. He is a must start, but he’s not as good an option as the top options out there.

Kevin Curtis’ stock is very low right now with all the injuries, but don’t give up on him completely. Philly loves to pass the ball. He’s not a bad option for WR depth.

For now, Maclin isn’t worth owning except as a speculative add in case Curtis misses more time. Avant is not worth owning.

23% – Tight End Brent Celek has been targeted on a team-high 23% of the team’s pass attempts and has responded with 22 catches for 245 yards and 2 scores.

 

Washington Wide Receivers

Malcolm Kelly may have won the battle with Antwaan Randle El and Devin Thomas for the WR2 spot, but it’s been Randle El who has seen the most targets and success of the three.

Jason Campbell has thrown to Randle El 16% of the time, compared to 10% to Kelly and 3% to Thomas. Meanwhile, Santana Moss is still leading the WR crew. He’s been targeted 23% of the time.

12-team league advice: Moss will continue to get his looks and should be starting in your league. Randle El and Kelly are waiver wire fodder and you probably don’t even want them on your bench at this point. Don’t even consider Thomas.

8% – Ladell Betts was expected to see more work this season, but has carried the ball on just 8% of the team’s run plays. This is compared to 70% for Clinton Portis.

 

Chicago Wide Receivers

Devin Hester and Johnny Knox both suffered injuries in the team’s week 4 game, but both appear to be okay for a return after the team’s week 5 bye. Hester has seen 14% of the team’s targets, while a team-high 19% have gone to the rookie Knox.

Thanks mostly to a huge week 1 performance, Earl Bennett (17%) still leads the team in receptions and yards, but not by much. WR4 Rashied Davis (2%) has just 2 catches on 2 targets.

12-team league advice: The trend seems to be that Cutler will spread it around to Hester, Knox, and Bennett pretty evenly. All are borderline WR3 material, but I’d probably feel most comfortable with Hester, followed by Knox and then Bennett. Don’t consider Davis.

40% – That is the catch rate for Greg Olsen—the worst rate in the NFL for a tight end with more than 10 targets. 25 Jay Cutler passes have gone to Olsen, but only 10 were catches, making Olsen a great buy low.

 

Detroit Tight Ends

Prior to the season, no one seemed too sure of how the Lions would use rookie Brandon Pettigrew. After his target-less season opener, it seemed obvious: they wouldn’t.

However, after being targeted 19 times over the last 3 games, it’s clear that he is going to be a part of the passing game.

Pettigrew has racked up 13% of the team’s targets and has caught 10 of them for 131 yards (a great YPR mark for a TE). Will Heller (8%) is the team’s second receiving option at TE, while Casey Fitzsimmons (3%) chips in as well.

12-team league advice: Considering that 16 tight ends have been targeted more often than Pettigrew, starting him in a 12-team league would be foolish at this point. If you need a one-week fill in for a bye week, however, he’s not a bad option. Heller and Fitzsimmons should be on free agency.

93 – Kevin Smith has 74 carries and 19 targets (16 catches) for a total of 93 looks. That ties him with Cedric Benson at third in the entire NFL in looks behind only Steven and Fred Jackson. His 90 touches also rank third in the NFL.

 

Green Bay Tight Ends:

There was a little bit of hype for Jermichael Finley this off-season as a possible breakout tight end. After a quiet week one in which incumbent starter Donald Lee tripled him in targets, Finley had 7 in week two.

Right when it seemed Finley would progressively become more involved in the offense, not one ball was thrown his way in week 3. 

Following his 6 catches on 7 targets for 128 yards in week 4, most are left scratching their heads as to what his role will be.

Overall, Lee has seen 18 targets (14% of team’s pass attempts) and Finley has been thrown to 15 (12%) times. Lee has 2 more catches, but Finley has an incredible 116 more receiving yards and the only touchdown between the two of them.

12-team league advice: Finley is not starting material quite yet, but if your league has deep benches and your tight end situation isn’t great, he’s not a bad player to have on your bench.

If he begins to see a higher percentage of the looks compared to Lee as the season goes on, his value could rise as high as a borderline starter in all formats. Lee should not be owned.

14.3 – Aaron Rodgers is averaging 14.3 yards-per-completion, the best mark in the NFL. His 6:1 TD:INT ratio is also one of the league’s best marks and his 104 rush yards are the most by a quarterback in the NFC.

Minnesota Wide Receivers

The Vikings will run more than most teams, but there wide receivers do hold some value. Bernard Berrian appears to be the one with the most value, despite the slow start.

After not recording a catch on only 2 targets in week 1, Berrian has been targeted 25 times the last 3 weeks. Overall, Berrian has been targeted on 22% of Brett Favre’s passes.

Percy Harvin (16%) has scored twice already via the passing game and also has 5 carries.

Sidney Rice (18%) seems to be progressing nicely and also has 2 receiving touchdowns.

Greg Lewis, who has just one catch (albeit a big one), Jaymar Johnson, and Darius Reynaud are non-factors at this point.

12-team league advice: Berrian should be in someone’s weekly lineup in 12-team leagues. Harvin is borderline, but should definitely be in there in leagues that award special teams points. Rice is waiver wire fodder.

100% – Adrian Peterson isn’t much of a pass catcher, but he’s caught all 8 of the passes thrown his way so far. He won’t continue to catch 100% of his targets, but if he can approach 30 receptions, that will be an added bonus for owners who drafted him in PPR leagues expecting a figure closer to 15.

 

Atlanta Running Backs

The pre-season word was that Michael Turner would see less carries in 2009 than he did in 2008. That hasn’t been the case.

Why is not exactly clear, but one main reason is the fact that Jerious Norwood has missed significant time to due injury and the team would prefer to give the ball to Turner a few extra times rather than hand it to RB3 Jason Snelling.

Overall, Turner has carried it on 80% of the team’s run plays. Snelling (9%), Matt Ryan (7%) and Norwood (4%) have handled the rest.

One thing is for sure, the team is throwing to the backup running backs (total of 15% of team’s passes) a lot more than they are to Turner (2%), which was expected and limits Turner’s value in PPR formats.

12-team league advice: Regardless of your format, Turner should be starting in your league. Norwood is a great buy low right now, especially in PPR, and isn’t the worst player to have on your bench in standard leagues if you have room. Leave Snelling on waivers.

29% – Roddy White has been targeted on 29% of Matt Ryan’s passes, the fourth highest mark in the league.

Carolina Running Backs

There was a lot of pre-season talk about Jonathan Stewart potentially getting a larger share of the workload than he did in 2008.

That, however, would’ve come at the expense of carries for DeAngelo Williams, who had an outstanding 2008 campaign. The split has favored Williams 58%-to-32%, which is about what many projected anyways.

Both have seen a respectable amount of looks from the passing game as well, which wasn’t something that was expected.

Williams (12% of the team’s targets) and Stewart (8%) have taken less of a hit in PPR leagues than expected. That could change if Carolina returns to running the ball at a higher rate like they did successfully in 2008.

12-team league advice: Williams is a must-start every week and is one of the best RB options out there. Stewart is a must own, but is a flex option at best.

33% – Steve Smith has been targeted on 33% of the team’s pass attempts this season, which is the second highest mark in the NFL and lower only to the other Steve Smith’s mark of 35%.

 

New Orleans Wide Receivers:

Marques Colston is the clear No. 1 receiver and has accordingly been targeted on a team-high 21% of Drew Brees’ passes.

Devery Henderson (17%) is not far behind and is the clear No. 2 option despite the success last season of Lance Moore (3%), who hasn’t been involved much this season. Robert Meachem (6%) was expected to do more, but does appear to be the WR3.

12-team league advice: Colston is a must start in all formats. Henderson is a borderline bench player, while Moore is valuable only as a speculative addition to your bench. Meachem isn’t valuable at this point.

34%/27%/25% – The Saints RB crew is probably more interesting than the wide receivers, but injuries have done such a number on the backs, that I chose to save them for another week.

Mike Bell missed weeks 3 and 4, but leads the running backs with 34% of the carries going to him. Reggie Bush (27%) has ironically been the only back of the three to play in each of the team’s first four games.

Pierre Thomas has seen 25% of the carries after sitting out all of week 1 and most of the action in week 2.

 

Tampa Bay Running Backs:

Injuries have impacted this battle for playing time and that is likely to be the trend going forward considering Cadillac Williams’ injury resume and Derrick Ward’s current status.

Williams has seen 42% of the carries so far this season, compared to 29% for Ward. Williams also leads in % of targets, seeing 11%, compared to 5% to Ward.

Those figures would all be closer if Ward didn’t miss the team’s week 4 game, so you should expect close to a 50/50 split going forward (assuming both are active).

12-team league advice: Both Williams and Ward should be owned. Ward should be on someone’s bench for now while he recovers and Williams should be starting while Ward is out.

When both are healthy, I wouldn’t feel overly confident starting either of them unless you have no better options.

21% – Kellen Winslow is the most targeted player on the team and it’s not even close. He’s seen 21% of the looks and the second-closest is a tie between Michael Clayton and fellow tight end Jerramy Stevens at 13%.

 

Arizona Running Backs

Prior to the season, it was anyone’s guess as to who between Chris Wells and Tim Hightower would see most of the carries. So far, it’s been all Tim Hightower. Wells has seen just 28% of the carries and not one target.

Hightower, meanwhile, has carried it 56% of the time and was thrown to on 20% of the team’s pass attempts. LaRod Stephens-Howling and Jason Wright have combined for 4% of the carries and 4% of the targets and add depth to the backfield.

12-team league advice: Wells is not worth owning except as a hold in case he sees more action later in the season. Hightower is a decent play right now in PPR leagues, but only worth a flex spot in standard leagues.

23%:20% – Many jumped on the Larry Fitzgerald bandwagon this off-season, but many also forgot about Anquan Boldin. Fitzgerald has seen a team-high 23% of the team’s targets go his way, but Boldin isn’t far behind at 20%.

Seattle Wide Receivers:

TJ Houshmandzadeh has been considered to be somewhat of a bust so far in 2009 thanks in part to his zero touchdowns, but he really hasn’t been. He’s been targeted on a very respectable 23% of Seattle’s pass attempts and is on pace for 88 receptions.

Nate Burleson has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners and the fact that he’s seen a team-high 25% of Seattle’s pass attempts is why.

Deion Branch missed the first two weeks of the season and was targeted 9 times total in weeks 3 and 4 for a total of 5% of the team’s targets this season.

Rookie Deon Butler (5%) and Ben Obomanu (1%) have also made a small impact.

12-team league advice: Houshmandzadeh and Burleson should be starting for someone at this point.

Houshmandzadeh is reliable and Burleson has proven that, when healthy, he is the real deal. Branch is an excellent WR to have on your bench, but Butler and Obomanu shouldn’t be owned.

20% – When they signed Edgerrin James, the coaching staff said he was there only to compliment Julius Jones. Considering James has seen just 20% of the carries (compared to 55% for Jones), they clearly weren’t lying.

 

San Francisco Wide Receivers:

Well, Michael Crabtree signed today, so this should be interesting.

So far, it’s been veteran Isaac Bruce (24%) whose been racking up a majority of the targets at wide receiver. Josh Morgan has seen 12% and Arnaz Battle just 4%.

You’ll notice that the wide receiver totals only add up to 40%. This is because utilizes their wide receivers less than any other team in the NFL. That could change depending upon how quickly Crabtree can make an impact.

12-team league advice: Bruce was quietly a very good fantasy WR in 2008 and should be on a roster in 12 team leagues right now. Josh Morgan is disappointing and worth no more than a speculative bench spot.

The same goes for Crabtree, who can’t be expected to make much of an impact this season after missing several weeks. That said, he must be owned in all leagues because of his potential. Note that he will be inactive in week 5 and possibly beyond that.

26% – Vernon Davis has seen 26% of the team’s pass attempts go his way—the second highest mark among tight ends in the NFL behind only Chris Cooley.

 

St. Louis Wide Receivers:

Laurent Robinson was injured in week 3 and is done for the season, but before he went down, he had been targeted on over 20% of the team’s pass attempts.

Despite missing a game, he still has caught 19% of the team’s targets this season. Donnie Avery (21%) now returns to the spot of unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver and should see plenty of looks as the season goes on.

Keenan Burton (14%) moves up to the number-two slot and Danny Amendola (2%) appears to be the third option at this point in time and Ruvell Martin (1%) also will see work.

12-team league advice: Avery is the only receiver worth owning right now. Burton has some value as the WR2, but the Rams offense is so terrible that there are a ton of better options than Burton out there. Martin and Amendola cannot help your team.

103 – Steven Jackson has 103 looks (carries+targets) this season, which is most in the entire NFL. His 95 touches also rank first in the league.

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Fantasy DC’s Week Four: Buy/Sell Report

Steve Smith NYG, WR
11 receptions, 134 yards, two TDs

Jon Dove—Buy—I think Smith’s production has more to do with Eli Manning than Smith’s overall skill.  It is kind of what Jay Cutler is doing with the Bears receivers.  However, that doesn’t mean that I am selling.  Pick up Smith because he will continue to have a good season and beyond.

Billy Smith—Buy—I was the organizer of the Smith bandwagon this preseason. It is nice to be proven right every so often.  He has really out played the other Steve Smith.  Some will say his value is at an all time high, but I think Manning, Smith, and Manningham are going to keep posting great numbers.

Mike Sims-Walker JAX, WR
Seven receptions, 91 yards, two TDs

Jon Dove—Sell—I am selling the Jaguars as an offense.  Rookie wide receivers tend to hit a wall and without a dominant offense (or team for that matter), I see Sims-Walker’s numbers taking a dive.  Move him for a more trusted commodity.

Billy Smith—Buy—The real issue with Sims-Walker is health.  He is a very talented player and David Garrard’s number one option.

Carson Palmer CIN, QB
230 yards, two TDs, one INT

Jon Dove—Buy—A couple years ago Palmer had a great fantasy season, and it seems like he is finally getting over all those injuries.  Palmer has a lot of weapons at  his disposal and finally a decent running game. 

I still worry about that offensive line, but so far so good.  Buying Palmer could be risky due to the injury history, but I feel he is worth the risk.

Billy Smith—Buy—He is healthy, and Chad Ochocinco is playing really well.  He is not going to put up the Palmer numbers of old, but he really has been good this season and is probably sitting on someone’s bench.  If you are struggling at QB, Palmer might be available for cheap.

Chad Ochocinco CIN, WR
Three receptions, 24 yards, two TDs

Jon Dove—Buy—Ochocinco has his swagger back.  He has been a top fantasy receiver for years, and everyone was ready to write him off after one poor season.  He is back and will continue to put up big numbers.

Billy Smith—Buy—Like Palmer, Ocho is healthy.  He didn’t have a ton of yards Sunday, but grabbed a couple of touchdowns, including a beautiful catch to tie the game. 

He has been a great play all season, and there is no sign he is slowing down.  I personally think he is on a mission to stick it to Skip Bayless.  How can you not like that?

Thomas Jones NYJ, RB
13 carries, 48 yards, one TD

Jon Dove—Sell—It is truly a running back by committee in New York.  Jones will have his good games, but if you could pick up a younger back that receives more carries, do so. 

The one thing that may make me hold on to Jones is Sanchez’s poor game this week.  Look for the Jets to run the ball more in the coming weeks.

Billy Smith—Sell—Jones is splitting carries, and teams are stacking the box to force Mark Sanchez to beat them.  Until he does, Jones isn’t the best option.

Johnny Knox CHI, WR

Jon Dove—Sell—As a Bears fan it’s hard not to like what Knox brings to the table.  However, I don’t trust rookie wide receivers and wouldn’t trade much to acquire Knox.

Billy Smith—Buy—The Bears’ rookie wide out might be the rookie of the year so far (close call between him and Percy Harvin).  He has big time speed and can take it to the house every time he touches the football.

 

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Fantasy DC’s Week Four: Waiver Wire Rush

In all my years playing fantasy football, this season seems to have played closer to “chalk” than most others.

There haven’t been nearly as many busts as previous years (although L.T., McNabb, and Eddie Royal fans would argue otherwise), and the credit has to go to a lack of major injuries to high-profile players. 

On the flip side, with a few exceptions, there haven’t been a staggering number of major booms either.  Let’s hand out a few waiver wire awards before we get going on this week.

 

Waiver Wire Pick-Ups of the 1st Quarter

QB: Joe Flacco, BAL

Went from a borderline QB2 and owned in less than 60% of leagues entering the year to being a top 3 QB.  Baltimore is throwing the ball far more than last year and the team obviously trusts Flacco’s progress from year one. 

The scary thing is the running game is playing just as well as the passing game, and Baltimore has gone from ball-control offense with great defense to an offensive power with an equally solid defense.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Orton, DEN

 

RB: Fred Jackson, BUF

He is the true definition of a waiver wire pick-up.  Jackson was an afterthought in most drafts with the exception of smart Marshawn Lynch owners.  Owned in 37% of leagues at the beginning of the season, Jackson put up top 5 RB numbers and became a must start in all leagues. 

Of course now that Lynch is back and hawking carries and passing downs, Jackson could find his way onto the wire again.

Honorable Mention: Mike Bell, NO (23%), Cadillac Williams, TB (62%)

The “other” Steve Smith has been a Fantasy Football sensation over the first 4 weeks of the 2009 season.

WR: Steve Smith/Mario Manningham, NYG

Neither were drafted high, with Smith taken in 26% of leagues and Manningham taken in less. 

But with the Giants running game off to an awful start and Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon both getting hurt, Smith and Manningham stepped up and became the best WR duo in the NFL.

Smith is the No. 1 fantasy receiver in the league and leads the NFL with 34 receptions.  Meanwhile, Manningham has taken control as the Giants’ deep threat and is also in the top 10 for fantasy points from a WR.  Amazingly, each is still available in about 10% of 10-team leagues.

Honorable Mention: Mike Sims-Walker, JAC (7%), Johnny Knox, CHI (12%), Pierre Garcon, IND (4%)

TE: Marcedes Lewis, JAC

David Garrard is having an amazing year at QB, and Mercedes Lewis has a great amount to do with it.  Until week 3, there were no WRs to mention in Jacksonville (all apologies to Torry Holt). 

Yet even with the addition of Mike Sims-Walker as a legitimate receiver hasn’t taken away from Lewis being a top 10 TE.

Though he hasn’t been a model for consistency, he had produced two 13-point games through the first four games of the year.

You can’t ask for more from a player who was only on 2% of teams entering the year and who is still available in an insane 90% of leagues.

Honorable Mention: Vernon Davis, SF (43%), Brent Celek, PHI (36%)

This week we’ll throw a few new names out on the wire, and we’ll revisit a handful of players mentioned in previous weeks.  As always, all players mentioned will be below 70% in 10-team formats and will likely be available in most leagues.

 

Go For It

David Garrard, JAC, QB (60% owned in 10 team format)

Tom Brady.  Aaron Rodgers.  Tony Romo.  What do these players have in common?  All were taken in the first 5 rounds of fantasy drafts, and David Garrard is out-performing them all.

Garrard has performed out of his mind this year, especially considering the lack of talent he has at the WR position.  Thankfully, teams have stacked in on MJD and allowed Garrard to dump of to Mercedes Lewis and Mike Sims-Walker. 

With a fairly easy schedule the rest of the season, including St. Louis and Seattle’s terrible defense the next two weeks, expect more of the same.  Easily a spot starter.  (Target: All leagues)

 

Ricky Williams, MIA, RB (53%)

Ricky has had a solid, if unspectacular season.  That said, the Dolphins are relying on the running game this year, especially with Pennington done and Henne going the rest of the way.

He won’t beat out Ronnie Brown when it comes to production, but he’s worth a start and is very much an RB2.  (Target: All leagues)

 

Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, RB (47%)

And that was what we hoped to get out of Rashard Mendenhall since seeing his final game in college.  He absolutely destroyed a battered SD defense, carrying 29 times for 165 yards and two TDs. 

Mewelde Moore will still get the third-down plays, and Willie Parker will be a factor for the Steelers, but we’ve seen this coming for several weeks. 

Pittsburgh couldn’t run the ball at all this year and Mendenhall finally proved that when given the opportunity he could make things happen.  (Target: All leagues, Dynasty+)

 

Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR (59%)

I wouldn’t begin to say how wrong I was on Mike Sims-Walker.  The guy has played out of his mind, becoming a top-10 WR and pulling in two 20-point games in the short season. 

Torry Holt has done nothing to earn more looks from David Garrard, and Sims-Walker is the only threat on the outside to do anything.  He may not give you 15 points every game, but he will blow up every other week.  (Target: All leagues)

 

Nate Washington, TEN, WR (31%)

After week one, I said go get Nate Washington, he will produce more than any Titans WR.  How’s he done?  He’s produced more than any Titans WR. 

Averaging 13 PPG and having a TD in 3 straight, Washington is a viable WR3 with WR2 ability and situation.

Watch out and see if the Titans stay with Kerry Collins, but as long as he’s behind center and not Michael Vi…I mean Vince Young, expect good things from Nate Washington.  (Target: All leagues)

 

All Things Depending:

Shaun Hill, SF, QB (26%)

Shaun Hill has quietly become to the 49ers what Trent Dilfer was to the Ravens.  He’s a solid starter who won’t turn the ball over and knows how to find his TE when he’s in need of a first down. 

He’s not overwhelming you, but he’s going to be a viable back up and you should feel fine if he’s your bye week starter.

Don’t drop Jason Campbell for him (unless Zorn losses his job and Campbell gets benched), but if you need a QB, climb this Hill (hooray for puns!).  (Target: 12 team leagues)

 

Cadillac Williams, TB, RB (52%)

I’ll be honest, I had no clue Williams would do this.  I loved him coming out of Auburn, and I was one of his greatest supporters going into his second season.  But this is crazy. 

As long as he’s upright, and who knows how long that will be, hold onto Caddy.  Expect a slight drop-off when Ward comes back, but know Caddy is the No. 1 back in Tampa for what it’s worth.  (Target: 12 team leagues)

 

Felix Jones, DAL, RB (67%)

Jones is available in 33% of leagues this week, and expect that number to grow with teams in need of bye week starters and Felix out for Sunday’s game. 

That said, Jones is a threat every time he’s on the field, and if he weren’t hurt (a phrase easily attached to a number of players) he’d be taken in over 90% of leagues. 

If you have the room and depth on your roster feel free to pick up Jones and stash him for a few weeks.  Don’t jeopardize your season or depth, but he’s a solid long-term investment.  (Target: 12-14 teams leagues)

 

Johnny Knox, CHI, WR (64%) / Pierre Garcon, IND, WR (64%)

Both Knox and Garcon are solid contributors.  Garcon has filled in well for Anthony Gonzalez and although he will still see the field when Gonzalez returns, he won’t have the same level of production all season. 

Knox has been more than adequate for the Bears this year.  But unless your league includes KR yardage you’re looking at a WR3.  If injuries and bye weeks are killing you right now, don’t hesitate to go after one of these players.

Just know they are only offering these numbers for a limited time.  (Target: 12 team leagues for Garcon until Gonzalez return, 12 team leagues for Knox, KR+)

 

Hold Off For Now

Matt Cassel, KC, QB (61%)

News came out of Kansas City that Coach Haley and Matt Cassel are on the same page.  They said the Chiefs couldn’t expect to win by throwing the ball 40 times per game. 

Well, there are two problems with their statements.  First, the Chiefs can’t expect to win at all, regardless of how many times they throw the ball. 

Secondly, and more to the point of Cassel, could his plummeting value drop any further, regardless of how many times he drops back?  His TD:INT ratio is fine, but 458 PY in three weeks is terrible, and it’s not getting better.

Don’t go after Cassel, even as a bye week starter.  You should have multiple options that may actually score points in the double digits.  (Target: 14+ team leagues)

 

Jerome Harrison, CLE, RB (24%)

This is probably a surprise, but as good as Harrison’s performance was Sunday, it doesn’t make up for the terrible game last week, and it doesn’t account for him being unable to overtake the 56 year old Jamal Lewis in the pre-season. 

You might be able to get a decent week out of him against the Bills this week, but it’s a split backfield at best for him once Jamal heals up.  (Target: 12-14 team leagues)

 

Michael Bush, OAK, RB (21%)

Darren McFadden is banged up and will likely miss 2-4 weeks.  But Michael Bush has looked absolutely awful this year, and if there’s an Oakland back you want to go for in McFadden’s absence, go after Justin Fargas. 

At least he’s proven he can play at a high level in more than one game in his NFL career.  (Target: 14 team leagues)

 

Kenny Britt, TEN, WR (13%) / Sidney Rice, MIN, WR (16%)

Rice and Britt are both owned in less than 20% of leagues, and with good reason.  Although both have had one or two solid games, neither has performed well enough to warrant a start on anything other than the deepest of leagues. 

Keep an eye on both, but let someone else snag them after their best game of the year, and go after whomever they drop.  It’ll likely be a player in a better situation, and you’ll have the better line-up.  (Target: 14+ team leagues)

 

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Fantasy Depth Chart’s Week 4 Sits & Starts

Another week of great NFL football leads us into another week of chaotic fantasy football. Lets look back at my predictions last week and on the season. Not looking kindly on last week…

 

Week 1: 11-5, Week 2: 15-8, Week 3: 12-9

HITs: Felix Jones (Start – He got hurt but put up yards. I’m being kind to myself here), Ray Rice (Start – Great game for PPR but McGahee’s was much better), Leon Washington (Sit – Hit this one right on but expect Mr. Leon to bounce back), Darren Sproles (Sit – My perfect prediction from last week), Matt Schaub (Start – Another great prediction if I say so myself lol), Ben Roethlisberger (Start – Could have been better and I’m looking at you Limas Sweed), Aaron Rodgers (Start – They showed up… this one was like cheating), Kerry Collins (Sit – No one should have been starting him anyway), Byron Leftwhich (Sit – Once again this one was too easy… I need to step it up), Ted Ginn (Sit – Yep. Hope you didn’t buy into the Indy game hype), Brent Celek (Start – Not a bad week for the TE), Anthony Fasano (Sit – Shhh… do you hear that? It’s the Fasano sleeper hype dying).

MISSes: Clinton Portis (Start – Could I have been further off? Paging Jim Zorn: You’re an idiot), Michael Turner (Sit – I’ll put him here cause he scored a TD but the Pats did shut him down), Matt Cassel (Sit – His freakish two TDs messed up this prediction), Chad OchoCinco (Start – Not bad but not good enough), Mario Manningham (Start – Good but not great while Steve Smith brought in the TD), Calvin Johnson (Start – Not good at WRs last wk, time to worry about CJ), Nate Washington (Sit – One freak TD… Washington was SHUT DOWN), Tony Gonzalez (Start – I was off and so was Matt Ryan), Heath Miller (Sit – In a PPR League he did enough to make this a miss otherwise he underproduced).

 

Week 4 Picks

RBs

Start:

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Tennessee Titans – I’ve harped enough about not starting RBs against the Titans. But I’m putting this in to make sure people understand that there is NO WAY you can put MJD on your bench. Period. That is all. Service announcement over.

Cedric Benson @ Cleveland Browns – Just wait till you see the numbers he puts up on the Brownies this weekend.

Steve Slaton vs. Oakland Raiders – Slaton has likely found his way onto benches or onto new teams. This is the week you’ve been waiting for. He’ll start his rebound against the pathetic Raiders.

 

Sit:

Tashard Choice @ Denver Broncos – Tons of fantasy analysts are going to rave about how Choice should be a great play this week. Denver is the seventh-best run defense in the league giving up just 78.3 yards per game. They have also only allowed one TD on the year. Now granted that includes games against the Browns and Raiders, but they started the year off against Benson and the Bengals. They gave up 76 yards and one TD. If Choice can manage that he’ll be a flex player at best. I do support starting Choice as a Flex option or as a bye week substitute but don’t get carried away with his potential. (Extra Note: I’m hearing Barber could return on Sunday… even in small carries he’ll get the GL attempts… further lowering any expectations).

Fred Taylor vs. Baltimore Ravens – Another “don’t buy the hype” to follow up on last week. Taylor had a great week last week and looked spectacular. But his up the gut, power running style is not going to bully the Ravens. Scatbacks works well against this BAL team not “mudders”. This team was built to stop the Bus. They can stop the once Fragile Fred.

Fred Jackson @ Miami Dolphins – This guy was an early season lifesaver for a lot of fantasy teams. But his matchup against a very good Miami run defense (partially their poor pass defense’s fault) & the return of Marshawn Lynch make for a poor showing this Sunday. Don’t drop him in any leagues (though entertain offers).

Matt Forte vs. Detroit Lions – I’m not off my rocker. The Lions have held up respectably against AP after giving up a lot to the New Orleans scoring machine. Mark my words, they clamp down on Forte this Sunday.

QBs

Start:

Jay Culter vs. Detroit Lions – The whiney one gets another great matchup this weekend. I love Cutler as a football player. So I obviously will love him as a fantasy QB this weekend. He should light the Lions up unless he decides to suck.

Kerry Collins @ Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags can’t get pressure. Against a pure pocket passer like Collins that will be all types of bad news. Collins can pick you apart if you don’t get pressure. Collins will do his best Peyton Manning impersonation on Sunday. (Extra Note: I have Collins in my Dynasty League & I intend to start him over Big Ben)

Jason Campbell vs. Tampa Bay – The Redskins are the joke of the NFL for right now. So why isn’t Jason Campbell coming under pressure? Cause he is playing almost lights out. With a passer rating of 92.5 and a completion percentage of 67.6, the only thing missing is TDs. And who is he playing this week? Tampa Bay. Him & Santana Moss will be smiling all day Sunday. Jim Zorn meanwhile could ruin this by deciding that Clinton Portis needs to rush it 40 times in the first half….

Bye Week Special: I like Shaun Hill & Eli Manning a lot this weekend. Neither has done a whole lot to become fantasy starters but both could be very productive in their respective matchups this weekend. With Kurt Warner & Matt Ryan taking the week off, Tom Brady playing Baltimore & Tony Romo playing Denver there are a lot of owners looking for options.

 

Sit:

Tony Romo @ Denver Broncos – The Broncos have given up zero passing TDs this year. Zero. They have five interceptions and 10 sacks. This defense (don’t ask me how) has been statistically good. Part of that is the dredge that they have been playing. But I think there is more to it. I’m not a fan of Tony Romo but I don’t feel good about this matchup in general. I’m banking against both Choice & Romo but if one proves me wrong, it’s more likely to be Romo.

Kurt Warner vs. Bye Week – Yeah. Just being funny. Considered putting him in the Start section. But all my jokes in that area were inappropriate.

Philip Rivers @ Pittsburgh Steelers – This one is not a joke. The Troy-less Steelers have had a hard time the past two weeks. But the only team they know better than the Ravens is the San Diego Chargers. This has become a fairly heated matchup as many of the past couple games have been low-scoring nail biters. Don’t be shocked to see yards without TDs on both sides of this game.

 

WRs (Extra Note: I did horrific in the WR area last wk. In an effort to improve I am only going to list two sits & two starts, quality over quantity right?)

Start:

Santana Moss vs. Tampa Bay – There is no doubt of the who the burner for the Redskins is. What a great week to have him going up against arguably the worst safety duo in the NFL. I’m expecting a HUGE game for Moss…. don’t mess it up Zorn

Tory Holt vs. Tennessee Titans – Mike Sims-Walker has become the talk of the town in Jacksonville. But most of that has been due to excellent matchups. I think teams will start to see him as the only explosive Jag WR & put a stop to his production. Expect the veteran Holt to make the backup Titan DBs look foolish.

 

Sit:

Calvin Johnson @ Chicago Bears – You heard it here first. I’m worried about Calvin Johnson. I don’t see a big game coming this weekend if Kevin Smith can’t play and lure the extra safety into the box.

Andre Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders – Wow. I didn’t intend to name two top tier WRs. But it just happened. Only thing Oakland will do right this weekend is keep AJ from beating them. Eat your heart out Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels.

 

TEs

Start:

John Carlson vs Indianapolis Colts – The Colts pass defense has been fairly good this season (to the surprise of many). But with one of their big name DEs out this weekend, their pass rush will suffer. Having to blitz a LB is never a good thing in a 4-3 but the Colts may need to do it to get after Wallace. All of this spells out a good game for John Carlson.

 

Sit:

Greg Olsen vs Detroit Lions – I’m still hearing stirring of how Cutler will make a connection with his TE. Sorry but Cutler has never been a real “lean on the TE” type QB. Those underneath, short gain, loose coverage type throws aren’t manly enough for the great Jay Cutler! (I love making fun of Cutler… but I actually like him quite a bit) Needless to say. Don’t get sucked in this week. The CHI WRs are going to make the DET DBs look silly. Olsen wouldn’t do well in a PPT (Point Per Target) League on Sunday.

 

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AFC Team By Team: Fantasy Notes, Targets and Looks

The teams in the NFL are passing 55 percent of the time this season, which is one percent higher than in 2008. Using the exact format I used one week ago in the NFC Depth Chart Notes, for each team this week, I will first list the percentage of each team’s plays that were pass attempts so far, and append their league rank in that department in the brackets (one will be the minimum, and will correspond to passing, and 32—the maximum, and will correspond to running).

In my team analysis, I will discuss that percentage’s impact on the team.

 

Buffalo, 55 percent (17)

The Bills have run a balanced offense so far and Trent Edwards has done a nice job managing it. He is about the average in yards per attempt and completion, and better than average in touchdowns per completion, and also in interceptions per attempt.

Marshawn Lynch will return from his suspension in Week Four and will split carries with early-season stud Fred Jackson, who leads the NFL in looks and has carried the ball on 81 percent of Buffalo’s run plays. He’s also been targeted on a team-high 22 percent of Edwards’ throws.

Terrell Owens has been targeted only 15 percent of the time, which is likely less than he was expecting when signing up with Buffalo. Lee Evans (19 percent) is seeing more of the looks. Edwards likes to use his tight end and because of that Derek Schouman (pre-injury) and Derek Fine are reaping the benefits.

Twenty nine percent of Edwards’ pass attempts have gone to a tight end. Josh Reed has been targeted 11 percent of the time and has responded by catching all 10 of those targets.

 

Miami, 48 percent (29)

Only three teams have run the ball at a higher rate than the Dolphins, who have put Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to good use. Brown has taken care of 51 percent of the carries and nine percent of the targets. Williams has carried it 33 percent of the time and has been targeted 11 percent of the time.

Ted Ginn has been targeted a team-high 30 percent of the time, but most of that is due to 16 looks in Week Two. Totaling 13 catches on 27 targets for 134 yards, he was shut out on six targets in Week Three and isn’t even the team’s leading receiver as Davone Bess (21 percent of targets) has 17 catches on 19 targets for 140 yards.

Greg Camarillo (eight percent) and Brian Hartline (six percent) have also been involved.

No team has used their tight ends less than Miami.

Starter Anthony Fasano has seen just six percent of the targets (six total). Most of that production was with Chad Pennington behind center. Now that Pennington is out for the season, it will be interesting to see if Chad Henne distributes the ball similarly.

New England, 63 percent (three)

The Patriots are throwing it a ton, but it hasn’t shown on Tom Brady’s statistics sheet…yet. Brady’s 3.4 percent TD/Completion rate is one of the worst in the NFL and could only improve.

His 10 yards-per-completion rate is also well below league average.

Fred Taylor appears to be the go-to running back after his 21 carry effort in Week Three. He has carried the ball on 46 percent of the Patriots run plays so far. Laurence Maroney is second on that list at 24 percent, with Kevin Faulk (13 percent), and Sammy Morris (nine percent) not far behind.

Randy Moss has been one of the most targeted players in NFL history for the three weeks since it resumed. He’s responded with 26 catches on 40 targets. Twenty eight percent of Brady’s passes have gone to Moss. Eleven percent have gone to Welker, but that figure is misleading considering Welker missed two of the team’s three games.

Joey Galloway (13 percent) and Julian Edelman (15 percent) have also been targeted more than 15 times.

Ben Watson has been quiet since a big Week One, but has still seen 10 percent of Brady’s passes directed at him. Chris Baker (four percent) is not seeing as many as most expected. Faulk has seen nine percent of Brady’s targets come his way, the highest mark for a Patriot running back.

New York, 44 percent (32)

The Jets are league’s run heaviest offense through three weeks.

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have been splitting the majority of the looks. Jones has carried it 46 percent of the time and was targeted four percent of the time for a total of 51 looks. Washington has carried it 39 percent of the time and has seen 13 percent of the targets for a total of 52 looks.

That is what you call a platoon.

Jericho Cotchery (30 percent) and Chansi Stuckey (25 percent) have seen a similar amount of targets, but Cotchery has caught eight more passes than Stuckey. Brad Smith (four percent) and David Clowney (one percent) have been non-factors in the offense. Dustin Keller (19 percent) has seen around five balls a game thrown his way.

Houston, 63 percent (four)

Matt Schaub has been fantastic after a rough Week One and the Texans playcallers are letting him do his thing by calling passes more than all but three NFL teams. Steve Slaton has struggled thus far, but was better in Week Three and is getting 59 percent of the team’s carries.

Chris Brown is getting a bit more than expected at 30 percent. Overall, Slaton is getting significantly more looks, thanks to him also seeing 13 percent of the targets, compared to just three percent for Brown. Andre Johnson has been targeted a team high 28 percent of the time.

Owen Daniels isn’t far behind at 21 percent.

Kevin Walter missed two games, but made up for it in Week Three by catching all seven of his targets. WRs David Anderson, Jacoby Jones, and Andre Davis (who has also missed time) each have seen between five and nine percent of the targets each. It’s worth noting that should Owen Daniels go down with an injury, Joel Dreessen appears to be the Texans tight end to replace him in the passing game.

Dreessen is the only other Houston tight end with a target (four, four percent of the team total).

Indianapolis, 57 percent (13)

The nightmare for Joseph Addai owners seems to be commencing.

Donald Brown has seen a bigger portion of the workload each of the first three weeks of the season and has impressed. Overall, Addai has seen 49 percent of the carries, compared to 40 percent for Brown. Addai also has the advantage with 11 percent of the targets going to him, compared to five percent to Brown. However, after a 23-13 advantage in looks in Week One, the ratio dropped to 7-5 in a weird Week Two matchup against Miami before getting even closer at 17-16 in the team’s Week Three contest.

I suspect that Addai will still get slightly more looks each week, especially considering he is averaging almost a half a yard per carry more than Brown, but that could change if the rookie continues to improve. Stay tuned.

Reggie Wayne has seen 30 percent of the team’s targets and that number is sure to stay high all season, especially considering that Anthony Gonzalez will still be out for several more weeks. Pierre Garcon seems to be adjusting well to the WR2 role and he’s seen 13 percent of the targets. Austin Collie isn’t far behind at 13 percent. Dallas Clark has seen 24 percent of Peyton Manning’s passes come his way.

Jacksonville, 57 percent (14)

Maurice Jones-Drew has been the offensive workhorse and that will continue as long as he stays healthy. He’s seen a team-high 74 percent of the carries (would be even higher, but David Garrard likes to run and is responsible for 17 percent of the team’s run plays) and is second on the team in the targets department with 22 percent going his way.

Backup RBs Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings would be players of fantasy relevance should MJD go down for a while, but to date, they’ve only seen four percent and three percent of the carries, respectively.

Torry Holt seems to be the number one receiving option as of now, but that could change quickly as Mike Sims-Walker is coming on strong. Holt has seen 23 percent of the targets, while Sims-Walker has seen 20 percent. Nate Hughes (cut) and Troy Williamson (IR) had combined for 12 percent of the targets, but both are now gone. Mike Thomas will pick up the slack. At tight end, Marcedes Lewis has seen 13 percent of the looks, while Ernest Wilford has seen two percent in limited action.

Read the full article for the remaining nine teams.

Depth Chart Notes rotate each week from the 16 NFC teams to the 16 AFC teams. If you are curious about something you see here or have a question about an AFC team (should it be a week I’m focusing on the NFC, for example), feel free to email me at mclay8823@yahoo.com, leave a comment, or shoot me a tweet @FDC_MikeClay .

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Fantasy DC’s Week Three: Buy/Sell Report

Santana Moss WAS, WR
10 receptions, 178 yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Sell—Some fantasy owners are so worried about filling a need that they will overlook a player’s true production. Moss can be that trading chip that gets you that missing piece. Moss will be productive but I will stay with my strategy of staying away from players on bad teams.

Bill Smith—Sell—Moss is a very streaky player. He didn’t do anything the first two weeks of the season and his numbers are inflated by his huge day against the Lions. On top of all that, Jason Campbell is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

Vernon Davis SF, TE
7 receptions, 96 yards, 2 TDs

Jon Dove—Sell—I don’t trust anyone on the 49ers offense. Except for Gore’s big game last week they struggled to put up impressive points. Teams know they want to run the ball so that should open things up for Davis. However, I can’t forget that scene last year when Coach Singletary kicked Davis off the field. I want to see if Davis could keep his attitude in check before I completely trust him.

Bill Smith—Buy—The 49ers are for real. With Shaun Hill running the show, look for San Francisco to run the ball and make safe passes to Davis.

 

Joe Flacco BAL, QB
342 yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Buy—It is very unlikely that Flacco is a team’s main quarterback so you might be able to pry him away for cheap. If you own Flacco you could move your other quarterback and pick up some extra pieces.

Bill Smith—Buy—Flacco is fourth in the league in TD passes and the Ravens (!) are second in the league in scoring. Most fantasy owners probably have Flacco on their bench, so if you are in need of a QB then he would be a great pick up.

 

Kevin Walter HOU, WR
7 receptions, 96 yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Hold—I agree with Bill that Walter will benefit from having Johnson opposite from him but this team worries me. I want to see Schaub stay healthy because if Dan Orlovsky is the quarterback I am selling all Texans.

Bill Smith—Buy—The Texans are going to throw the ball a lot. Andre Johnson is going to get all the attention leaving Walter with more one-on-one coverage.

 

Jerricho Cotchery NYJ, WR
8 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Buy—I am buying Cotchery and the J-E-T-S. Mark Sanchez has shown he is capable of making all the throws and you have to love that defense. I expect that the defense will cause tons of turnovers giving more opportunites to Cotchery and the offense.

Bill Smith—Sell—Cotchery is Mark Sanchez’s most dependable receiver and is having a really good year. However, he is going to start drawing double teams, and more pressure is going to be put on Sanchez (who I will talk about more in a moment.) This might very well be Cotchery’s high point.

 

Devin Hester CHI, WR
5 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Sell—I would move Hester ASAP. He will put up some good fantasy numbers but I think other fantasy owners will over pay for Hester. I will stress that I would only move Hester if I was offered a very good deal.

Bill Smith—Hold—Hester has a lot of name value and has solid numbers to this point. However, Hester is getting most of his yardage off screen passes. Look for defenses to start jamming Hester at the line and forcing him to get open deep. That might prove to be something very difficult for a guy playing his second year at wide out.

 

Mark Sanchez NYJ, QB
171 yards, 2 TDs, 10 rushing yards, 1 TD

Jon Dove—Hold—I am not really sure how much trade value Sanchez will have. He is a good bye week option but I would give up more than a third string running back for him. Sanchez could have more value if a big time quarterback gets injured.

Bill Smith—Sell—Sanchez is going to have to start throwing more and is getting a lot of hype with the Jets’ fast start. Sanchez owners should capitalize on the hype and sell before Sanchez gets exposed.

….

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Fantasy DC’s Week Three: Waiver Wire Rush

All players mentioned will be below 70 percent owned in 10 team formats and likely available in most leagues.

Go For It:

Jason Campbell, WAS, QB (32 percent owned in 10 team format)—Washington has played really poorly, and Sunday was the culmination of bad play.  But even in losing to the previously 0-19 Detroit Lions, Jason Campbell maintained his position in the top 10 of QBs. 

The Redskins are going to be playing from behind all year, and the running game has been bad at best.  Campbell should have every opportunity to air it out while the Skins stink it up.  (Target: All leagues)

Donald Brown, IND, RB (49 percent)—Every time Donald brown touches the ball he’s bowling over someone on the defensive side of the field.  He’s a true beast and is slowly taking carries and time from Joseph Addai.  He may not be a weekly starter right now, but he’s a spot flex and his role will continue to grow.  Get on the bandwagon early.  (Target: All leagues)

Tashard Choice, DAL, RB (15 percent)—For at least one more week Tashard Choice deserves a spot on your roster.  MB3 is still banged up, and Felix went down for a bit during the game against the Panthers as well. 

Choice looked incredibly explosive and seemed like he could be a number one for a team in the future.  Feel free to start Choice this Sunday is his backfield mates are still banged up.  (Target: 12 team leagues)

Nate Burleson, SEA, WR—No one is happier, other than maybe John Carlson, to see Seneca Wallace behind center in Seattle.  Burleson was targeted 12 times Sunday, and has always been a heavy target for Wallace.  Even when Hasselbeck comes back Burleson is the only receiver for the Seahawks to separate from the pack and be a reliable target.  Lock in on Nate and look for his production to increase. (Target: All leagues)

Repeat of previous weeks: Correll Buckhalter, DEN, RB (38 percent), Ricky Williams, MIA, RB (39 percent), Nate Washington, TEN, WR (25 percent), Vernon Davis, SF, TE (51 percent), Brent Celek, PHI, TE (62 percent)

All Things Depending:

Mark Sanchez, NYJ, QB (42 percent)—The Jets have to be the surprise team of the short season.  The primary reason for their success is the amazing defense they play.  The running game, anchored by Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, has also been very good. 

But Mark Sanchez is playing good, safe football; throwing the ball to the right players and making a minimal number of mistakes.  You won’t win your league with Sanchez, but he’s a solid back-up with spot start ability.  (Target: 12-14 team leagues, dynasty+)

Glen Coffee, SF, RB—News came out late Monday that Frank Gore is out for at least three weeks.  Now Frank Gore is one of the best RBs in the league, but to average over six YPC takes more than talent, and Coffee should be able to step in and be a serviceable player in the nest few weeks.  Don’t drop Ray Rice or Pierre Thomas for Coffee, but feel free to take a flyer on him.  (Target: 12-14 team leagues)

Kelley Washington, BAL, WR (4 percent)—Obviously Baltimore airing it out in week one was not a fluke.  Flacco is tossing the ball so easily, and though it may not last all year, Washington has been the biggest beneficiary of the new offense. 

He’s played his way into the No. 2 WR role, overtaking Mark Clayton and playing alongside Derrick Mason.  Feel free to put a bid on Washington in deeper leagues, and keep a close eye on him as the season continues.  (Target: 12-14 team leagues)

Pierre Garcon, IND, WR—Every receiver for the Colts will be solid.  This is factual information.  Although Garcon has great numbers and should continue for a few more weeks, he’s not worth the long-term investment most teams would have to make. 

Anthony Gonzalez  will be back and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark will always be the primary guys for Peyton Manning.  Feel free in deeper leagues, but let someone else grab Garcon, then go after their better player.  (Target: 14 team leagues)

Repeat of previous weeks: LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB (53 percent), Fred Taylor, NE, RB (35 percent), Johnny Knox, CHI, WR (51 percent), Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, WR (40 percent), Tony Scheffler, DEN, TE (22 percent)

Hold Off For Now:

Kevin Kolb, PHI, QB (10 percent)—Kevin Kolb has been a more than adequate starter in the wake of Donovan McNabb’s injury.  A lot of people, my self included, were worried when the Eagles signed Jeff Garcia and with the knowledge that Michael Vick was coming off of the suspended list. 

But Vick barely played last week and Jeff Garcia is getting cut.  Kolb has put up better numbers than Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Kurt Warner.  All of that said, the Eagles have a bye week and McNabb will be back after that.  Feel free to cut Kolb loose or let someone else waste a waiver pick on him.  (Target: Very deep dynasty only)

Jerome Harrison, CLE, RB (6 percent)—Harrison had every chance with Jamal Lewis out to take the starting job and run with it.  He didn’t play the worst game, but he didn’t do enough to add to his playing time other than on third down.  That’s not what you want on your roster.  No need for Harrison to hold a roster slot for someone more deserving.  (Target: 14+ team leagues)

Keenan Burton, StL, WR / Donnie Avery, StL, WR—With Laurent Robinson out it’s easy to try and get his replacement.  But Donnie Avery went into the year as the Rams No. 1 and quickly lost that position, and Keenan Burton is a poorman’s possession receiver. 

Add Bulger being hurt and none of this makes for a good situation.  Your WRs should be better than either of these, and if they’re not than you’re probably 0-3 and could invest your time in teams that have won a game or two.  Good luck.  (Target: 14+ team leagues for Avery, N/A for Burton)

Repeat of previous weeks: Michael Bush, OAK, RB (25 percent), Mark Clayton, BAL, WR (53 percent), Chris Henry, CIN, WR (24 percent), Kevin Boss, NYG, TE (43 percent)

…

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Fantasy Football Waiver Hawk: Week Three

How to burglarize your waiver wire before anyone gets a chance to.

The concept is simple. Grab the waiver-wire pickups the week before they become hot so you do not have to luck out on the wire. Each week I will predict NEXT week’s hot waiver-wire pickups so you can snag them before they become a hot commodity.

I will continue to focus mainly on running backs and wide receivers because that is where your bread is buttered in fantasy football. The players are listed in order of relevance, and it is up to you to decide on which one is valuable enough to fit in a league your size.

Make sure you don’t miss this article each week to become the waiver hawk in your league.

 

Some Highlights from Last Week’s Digging Deeper

Correll Buckhalter RB, Denver Broncos 22% (28%)
Chansi Stuckey WR, NY Jets 9% (15%)
Laurent Robinson WR, St. Louis Rams 5% (23%)
Johnny Knox WR, Chicago Bears 1% (39%)
Biggest Movers from past articles
Carnell Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22% (65%)
Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo Bills 49% (84%)
Brandon Stokley WR, Denver Broncos 4% (18%)
Robert Meachem WR, New Orleans Saints 8% (16%)
Louis Murphy WR, Oakland Raiders 0% (12%)
Julian Edelman WR, New England Patriots 0% (4%)

 

This Weeks Pickups

Lynell Hamilton RB, New Orleans Saints (1%)

Arguably the waiver–wire darling of this week, Hamilton is a must-add if he is available. Hamilton could potentially get the start in New Orleans this week after Mike Bell suffered a MCL sprain in Week Two. The latest news is Mike Bell is expected to miss three to four weeks.

Hamilton is a very capable back that showed some elite ability in college at San Diego State. Hamilton is a good runner between the tackles and has pass-catching ability if Reggie Bush is limited. While I would hold off on putting Hamilton in your lineup immediately, he could find his way on many starting rosters after Week Four.

 

Jacoby Jones WR, Houston Texans (3%)

We remember Jones because of his sleeper status his rookie year. He immediately was productive and was injured and has been limited to mainly special teams since. The injury bug has found its way to the Texans receiving core and Kevin Walter should be a game-time decision. The buzz in Houston is Jones will at least steal some snaps from Walter this week. Jones is just another deep threat on a dangerous offense. This one has “upside” written all over him.

 

Derek Anderson (2%) QB, Mohammad Massaquoi (0%) WR, Cleveland Browns

This is more of a speculative add for deep leagues, especially dynasty leagues. Cleveland is 0-2 and has an upcoming schedule with some very tough pass defenses, including Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in its next four games. I would not be surprised to see Derek Anderson be inserted into the lineup soon and Massaquoi be given a shot to take attention off Braylon Edwards.

Cleveland’s defense is allowing 30.5 points per game so far and shows little sign of slowing down, so the Browns should be playing from behind quite a bit. The talent between Edwards, Massaquoi, and Anderson is enough to warrant an upside claim in a deeper league.

 

Seneca Wallace QB, Seattle Seahhawks (2%)

I cannot see any way Matt Hasslebeck plays this week. Seneca Wallace, meanwhile, was secretly very productive last year. He completed almost 60 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in eight games. Not eye-popping stats, but these are solid stats considering the lack of weapons Seattle had last year. Now he gets a healthy Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and a dangerous pass-catching running back with Justin Forsett. Seattle plays much better at home and could surprise Chicago this week.

 

Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans (24%)

Dropped in many leagues early on, Washington now is healthy. Nate was on the field for 93 percent of the Titans’ plays against Houston compared to that of just 34 percent for Kenny Britt.

 

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Denver Broncos (2%)

Wait, Jabar Gaffney? What? Yes, that’s how I feel about it too, but let me explain before you hate Jabar. Many have attributed Eddie Royal’s and Brandon Marshall’s trouble to Kyle Orton’s incapability of throwing. The real problem has been Josh McDaniel’s relying on Brandon Stokley and Gaffney.

In Week Two, the only player on the field for more than 51 percent of the plays was Gaffney, at 82 percent. Denver is 2-0 and doesn’t show any real sign that things will change. As of now, it is safe to assume Gaffney is the WR1 on the Denver Broncos.

 

Bobby Wade (6%), WR, Dantrell Savage (0%), RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Todd Haley and McDaniels remind me of each other with their ability to completely ignore depth charts of popular opinion. We saw Wade join the team and earn the WR2 role immediately. I frankly would not be astonished to see Savage take Larry Johnson’s RB1 role as well. You just never know with guys like Haley and McDaniels. Savage is said to be being groomed by Priest Holmes himself and some claim he has the same late-round upside as Holmes.

 

James Davis RB, Cleveland Browns (9%)

Mentioned in previous articles, it is now Davis’ time to shine. With Jamal Lewis’ hamstring injury, Davis could get the start and majority of carries.

 

Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars (25%)

He should be owned in almost all leagues as he is now the WR1 in Jacksonville.

 

Digging Deeper

Tashard Choice RB, Dallas Cowboys (10%)
Justin Forsett RB Seattle Seahawks (7%)
Matt Leinart QB, Arizona Cardinals (2%)
Brandon Jones WR, San Francisco 49ers (0%)
Michael Bennett RB, San Diego Chargers (0%)
Jared Cook TE, Tennessee Titans (0%)
(More Digging Deeper In Full Article)

…

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Fantasy Depth Chart’s Week Three Sits and Starts

Another week of great NFL football leads us into another week of chaotic fantasy football. Lets look back at my predictions last week and on the season. To see the full article (including wide receivers and tight ends) check in at FantasyDC.com

 

Week 1: 11-5, Week 2: 15-8

 

HITs: TEN running backs (Start), Matt Forte (Sit), Steve Slaton (Sit), Julius Jones (Sit—was an obvious Week One wonder), McFadden (Start—the TD saves my prediction but I was off on this one), DEN running backs (not enough touchdowns, but still good yardage games for RBBC), Trent Edwards (Start), Brett Favre (Start—Two touchdowns saved a poor yardage game), Matt Ryan (Start—Has become a must start and won’t appear in any more articles), Dwayne Bowe (Start—Touchdowns define good wide receiver production), Johnny Knox (Start—His speed forced the Bears to start him the whole second half…don’t expect a repeat performance though), Antonio Bryant (Sit—He didn’t even play so this one doesn’t really count), Roy Williams (Sit—From Stud to Dud but you don’t hear the media talking about it), Dustin Keller (Start—Three touchdowns on the season and you could get him in the 12th-14th Round…when will people learn?), Owen Daniels (Start—72 yards and one touchdown is great tight end play)

MISSes: Brandon Jacobs (Start), Matt Schaub (Sit—This one stings…sorry everyone), Kurt Warner (Sit—Wasn’t a huge game, but it was very good), Palmer (Sit—Not a good week for sitting quarterbacks from me), Greg Jennings (Start—That’s a zero point ouch), Antwan Randle El (Start—Four receptions is not enough), Braylon Edwards (Sit—Six receptionss for 94 yards is a great game without scoring a touchdown), Antonio Gates (Sit—Five receptions for 78 yards isn’t good enough for Gates but it is for the average tight end…so he proves me wrong and upsets his owners)

 

RBs

Start:

Felix Jones vs. Carolina Panthers—The Panthers are giving up 168 yards per game thus far this year. With Marion Barber nursing a strained quad, it doesn’t really matter if he plays or not. Big plays are needed from the Dallas running game (to counter a hot/cold Romo) and Jones is going to be the player to provide them this week. Look for them to use a few more screens and short passing plays to get Felix into the open field but also expect an increase in standard looks/carries. Tashard Choice may snipe a couple carries, but Jones looked strong near the goal line against the Giants.

Ray Rice vs. Cleveland Browns—The Browns haven’t provided great weeks of fantasy football production to AP and a RBBC. This week the efficient Ravens will run all over them, keep them from scoring and then run out the clock. Both Rice and McGahee should be used at worst as flex plays, but I side with Rice this week to rebound after a poor Week Two.

Clinton Portis at Detroit Lions—The Lions have played a great first half twice in a row only to fall apart in the second half. I guess 30 minutes of good football is an improvement over last year? Portis was not overly impressive last week against the Rams and hasn’t really been his explosive self this year. But this is the week to have him in your starting lineup and then try to sell high.

 

Sit:

Leon Washington vs. Tennessee Titans—You noticing a trend when running backs play the Titans? This will be the first time a productive running back goes up against this Tennessee defense and it should be fun to watch. Washington is gaining steam as an excellent flex play at worst and a possible No. 2 running back depending on the matchup and roster situation.

This week will really come down to one big play, if Washington makes it, he should see a good stat line. But if the consistent Titans defense finally puts their foot down, Washington could be in for a long day of short receptions and negative yardage runs.

Darren Sproles vs. Miami Dolphins—The little guy lit up a very good Baltimore Defense to the tune of 171 receiving yards and one touchdown. The very physical Baltimore defense (4-3) doesn’t matchup well against pass catching running backs and Sproles put on a one man show. However, the Dolphins 3-4 fields some excellent defensive backs used to handling underneath throws and linebackers used to man coverage. Sproles should still see his fair yardage but expect a steep decline and no touchdowns.

Michael Turner at New England Patriots—The Pats have allowed third down running backs to produce against them the last two weeks. But Turner is the stud furthest away from that designation. Even with the loss of Mayo, the Pats will be able to stop the running game Turner brings by maintaining gap control and not overpursuing. However Matt Ryan should make them pay to the tune of a big big day.

 

QBs

Start:

Matt Schaub vs. Jacksonville Jaguars—This isn’t a knee jerk reaction to Schaub’s big week. Its an acknowledgment that the Jaguars are doing little right as a team and doing even worse in pass defense. Schaub looked great given time to throw the ball (something the Jags will provide him with) and even spread it around successfully. He won’t match last week’s numbers but he’ll be worth starting this week.

Ben Roethlisberger at Cincinnati Bengals—Fantasy owners should always be aware of division games. While it is important to looks back on historical production, that can sometimes lead to false conclusions (Slaton having two 100-yard games against the Titans last year).

However, Ben has showed some maturity in the passing game leading to many more passing attempts and better ball control. Interceptions could become a concern if pressure is consistent throughout a game but the Steelers offensive line may actually be showing signs of not being horrible and simply being bad (I’m a Steelers fan so I can say that). If the offensive line can give Ben the time, he’s shown he can make defenses pay.

Aaron Rodgers at St. Louis Rams—The Packers offense that looked so great in the preseason has not fully arrived here in the regular season. That all changes this weekend against the battered Rams. Rodgers is a must start for any team this week (unless you have Drew Brees).

 

Sit:

Kerry Collins at New York Jets—This is more for those out there that might view Collins Week Two performance as anything more than an aberration. Collins faces a very tough New York Jets defense that is punishing everyone they play. Collins should be used only in the worst of situations.

Matt Cassel at Philadelphia Eagles—The Eagles defense had a tough matchups last weekend against Drew Brees, this week they will take it out on a team much lower on the totem pole. I look for Cassel to be harassed and sacked often on Sunday. Keep him on your bench.

Byron Leftwhich vs. New York Giants—Leftwhich shouldn’t be starting anyways, but the high number of touchdowns and yards coming from him might lure owners into a false sense of productivity. The Giants should be balanced this week allowing a decent running game from Tampa Bay whiling making sure Leftwhich eats grass.

 

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Week Two: Waiver Wire Rush

After Week One, FantasyDC suggested you go after these players. Now after Week Two, we have a whole new list for you to enjoy.

All players mentioned will be below 70 percent in 10 team formats and will likely be available in most leagues.

 

Go For It

Trent Edwards, BUF, QB (61 Percent Owned in 10 Team Format)

As of now Trent Edwards is ranked in or at the top five for QB’s in standard scoring leagues. Will he stay there all season? Not likely. But will he be in the top 20? There shouldn’t be a doubt.

He’s had two very solid games and doesn’t seem to be making many terrible throws forcing it to Terrell Owens, something even Tony Romo couldn’t seem to figure out. I think the best argument for Edwards is that he’s putting up these numbers, while having a running back, Fred Jackson, put up top five numbers as well.

Edwards is a spot starter with season-long roster appeal.

Target: All leagues.

 

Cadillac Williams, TB, RB (62 Percent)/Correll Buckhalter, DEN, RB (22 Percent)

Tampa Bay and Denver are both tough backfields to work through. Both have a stable of capable backs, with the Bucs signing Derrick Ward in the offseason and Denver drafting Knowshon Moreno.

That said Cadillac and Correll have played well enough the first two weeks to keep their starting role and will be on the better end of the RB split for their respective teams for at least a handful of weeks.

Target: All leagues for Cadillac, 12 team leagues for Correll, backups only for both.

 

Mario Manningham, NYG, WR (43 Percent)

This is probably the easiest of all adds. Mario Manningham looked like a man on the field this week, and although he went in the Giants No. 3 WR, he walked out the No. 1 WR in the NFL through week two.

He will not stay there; no one can argue that. But the Giants haven’t found a ground game yet and are throwing the rock all over the place. Eli Manning found his possession receiver last week in Steve Smith, and now he found his home run hitter in “Super” Mario.

Nicks is still down, Hixon is a little hurt and is sub-par at best, and the Giants intentionally did not sign a WR in the offseason, while dealing with the Plaxico situation.

Manningham is your guy, and he’s better than someone you have on your roster right now.

Target: All leagues, with a bullet.

 

Nate Washington, TEN, WR (24 Percent)

Nate Washington showed this week that week one was a bit of a fluke. Britt and Gage will get theirs, and Chris Johnson will continue to have out-of-this-world games from time-to-time, but Nate Washington was signed this offseason as the answer to Tennessee’s receiving problems, and he did nothing this week to convince us otherwise.

Don’t sign him unless you have a player to drop, but most should have someone they can let go.

Target: 12 team leagues.

 

Marcedes Lewis, JAC, TE (Three Percent) / Vernon Davis, SF, TE (43 Percent)

Jacksonville is losing receivers like crazy, and although Mike Sims-Walker played well last week, Marcedes Lewis is fast becoming David Garrard’s favorite target. He’s looking for him when he needs a first down and is more than a viable bye-week starter.

Vernon Davis is also playing on a team looking for someone to step forward when the team needs a catch. With Coach Singletary giving more trust to Davis, even making him a team captain, there is reason to believe his personal maturity is catching up to his athletic ability.

He’s already putting up numbers of a starter, and those numbers should continue to make him worthy of a roster spot on any team.

Target: All leagues, spot starts for Davis, backup for Lewis.

 

All Things Depending

 

Byron Leftwich, TB, QB (12 Percent)

Who has the most pass attempts through two weeks of the NFL season? No surprise, its Tom Brady. But No. 2 is a huge surprise in Byron Leftwich.

I can’t guarantee he keeps throwing the ball for his team all season, especially if they keep losing. But while he’s in there and as the Bucs keep losing, Leftwich will keep throwing at a huge rate. He’s horribly immobile, which adds 5-10 throws a game that would have otherwise been runs. His TD:INT ratio may not be good, but he’ll give you yards and completions.

If you’re thin at QB think about adding Byron, at least until he gets benched.

Target: 12-14 team leagues, backup only.

 

LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB (42 Percent)/Felix Jones, DAL, RB (70 Percent)

Both Marion Barber III and Brian Westbrook are a little dinged up which plays into Felix and LeSean’s hand. But Felix has his own “ding” problems, and the Eagles are used to Westbrook being on the injury report.

Both are required as handcuffs, and could be valuable in general to those thin on RB’s.

Target: 12-14 team leagues, PPR-plus for Felix.

Tim Hightower, ARI, RB (64 Percent)

Tim Hightower is still the starter, but Wells is looking more and more comfortable in Arizona.

No Arizona back should be starting in traditional leagues, but in deeper leagues you can get away with playing whoever is starting that week. For now it remains Tim Hightower.

Target: 12-14 team leagues.

 

Hold off for Now

 

Michael Bush, OAK, RB (24 Percent)/Fred Taylor, NE, RB (24 Percent)

Both are putting up reasonable numbers in very bad time-shares.

Taylor is being given every chance to be the No. 1 RB in New England, and Darren McFadden is doing nothing to make the Oakland staff give him more time on the field. But neither Taylor nor Bush are doing enough with their time and are getting unplayable numbers for it.

There are much better plays for you, no matter the situation.

Target: 14-plus team leagues.

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