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Thursday Night Football: Titans Vs Steelers
Published: September 9, 2009
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STEELERS
QB
Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger isn’t a gunslinger by any means. In fact, if you just look at past history, you have to think he won’t throw much – after all ‘the Steelers are a run first team’ right? Well, it’s hard to know for sure that it’s a true statement anymore. The reality may be that this team is NOT a run-first powerhouse as it once was.
Frankly, the offensive line is better protecting Big Ben than it is blocking for the running backs. The Offensive line has had problems for a couple of years now on the ground but have improved enough to give Roethlisberger a chance against a defense that is trying to make do without Albert Haynesworth.
However while Roethlisberger is a safe start, I wouldn’t want to start him. Unless you are in a spot where Matt Cassel is your quarterback or have some real question marks Roethlisberger will give you serviceable points, but not the sort of fantasy value you want to roll out your first week.
RB
Willie Parker: It’s been a tumultuous pre-season for ‘Fast’ Willie Parker. Parker set out to capture the goal line duties and as of this week he did – though probably more due to the underwhelming play of Rashard Mendenhall as much as anything else. Parker faces a once stout run defense which is now a question mark – will the absence of Albert Haynseworth affect the Titans run defense? I say to some extent, yes. But overall this unit is more than just the sum of one part and while I think Parker will get the lion’s share of carries, he still faces a tough unit. For what it’s worth, in the preseason, the Titans allowed an average of just 3.5 yards a carry but a middle of the road 467 total yards in four games. You can’t read into it too much – the starting unit only plays a handful of snaps. Parker is an ok start, but as he’s likely to be your RB3, you probably have a better match-up on your roster. He’ll put up some points but probably won’t blow your opponent out of the water.
WR
Santonio Holmes: Since I expect Big Ben to throw a bunch you can assume that I think Holmes should be a good start. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled between five and seven catches and somewhere around 70 yards. He’s going to be a pretty decent WR2 this year and I think this will be a good game for him. The Titans struggled against the pass in preseason (again, take that for what it’s worth) and he should find room to work in the secondary. It won’t be huge night, but he’s a fine start at WR2 to kick off your season.
Hines Ward: Is there anything ever to say against starting Ward? He won’t blow up often but he also doesn’t get too many donuts. Roethlisberger likes and trusts him and goes to him often enough to make him more valuable in PPR than non-PPR leagues. As Holmes emerges as more of the prototypical WR1 threat, it will be interesting to see how Ward’s role might change. But even with slightly better play of late from second-year WR Limas Sweed, Ward won’t miss out much. Start him as a WR3 and he’ll likely reward you with a serviceable game against the Titans. His upside might be a little limited, but so is his downside.
Limas Sweed: Sweed played a little better as the preseason wore on, but not enough to be a consistent fantasy threat. As the season progresses we may see more of the youngster from Texas, but right now he won’t produce much fantasy-wise and isn’t worth a start.
Heath Miller: Once you get outside the top five tight ends, it’s almost every man for himself. But some – Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, John Carlson – are held in higher esteem than others – like Heath Miller. Miller was a hot prospect a few seasons ago, but topped out last year and now, according to Steeler beat writer Ed Bouchette, Miller is destined to remain at his 45 catch ceiling. With some of the blocking issues on the line, it’s not a surprise and while Miller is a fine pass-catching tight end, he isn’t worth starts unless a match-up really cries out for it, which this one doesn’t.
TITANS
QB
Kerry Collins: This is just not a good match-up for Collins. The epitome of a serviceable Fantasy QB, Collins usually won’t lose a game for you. Often he won’t win one for you either. The Pittsburgh Defensive unit is a terrible match-up and I can’t see a reason to stick Collins into your lineup in Week 1, on a Thursday. Too shaky, too early, to risky.
RB
Chris Johnson: There are a bunch of RBs I would take ahead of Johnson this week – unfortunately you probably don’t own any of them or if you do, not more than one. Still, as tough as this match-up is, Johnson and the Titans have produced against brutal Run Defenses before. While I’m not sure he tops 100 total yards, I think he gets enough – and in a PPR league, enough catches – to make him a pretty good start this weekend. Maybe not a lock-down RB1 but a solid one, or an outstanding RB2.
LenDale White: White will continue to get the short yardage and red zone work, but I don’t know how much red zone work he’ll see against this defense. You know White – he could have a big game or he could disappear. Given that he’s threatening to stomp Terrible Towels again this weekend, my guess is Pittsburgh’s Steel Curtain will take a certain amount of pride in shutting him down – and up. There will be plenty of times to start White – this isn’t on of them.
WR
Justin Gage: Despite the match-up, Gage may have himself a nifty little game. Collins won’t be able to rely on rookie Kenny Britt that much and even if he plays, will Nate Washington be reliable and healthy enough to have a great impact? Gage may get a bunch of targets and if Collins finds himself behind and throwing, Gage will be the beneficiary. Gage is a solid WR3 start with the upside for outplaying his starting spot on your team.
Kenny Britt: I like Britt’s overall prospects but I can’t imagine going to him this early in your fantasy season when we have little if any idea how he’ll play and against a very tough defense. In a deeper league WR4 isn’t out of the question, but it may be a tad early in the week for a Hail Mary even at that spot.
Nate Washington: Washington is looking like he might go Thursday which should be interesting to watch. Will his hamstring hold up? Will they work him a little? A lot? How will he fit in after missing a chunk of the preseason? Is the Washington we were watching dazzle prior to the injury the real deal? Will he regain that now? Too many questions for me – if I can do it, I avoid him this week. I’d rather risk missing out on a good game by playing another WR who can contribute as much with less risk, versus starting Washington and getting little to nothing to show for it.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
NFL Preseason Week Three Review: Part Two
Published: August 31, 2009
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Ravens 17, Panthers 13
Joe Flacco showed a little of the game he had last year with a 247 yard, one touchdown performance, but it was Ray Rice’s eight catches for 67 yards that stood out. Unfortunately, so did his 10 carries for 32 yards which weren’t all that scintillating. Willis McGahee keeps hanging around and had a touchdown to go with his six carries for 16 yards. Jalen Parmele looked outstanding with his four carries for 68 yards but it’s hard to know where he’ll fit in here.
The two players who stood out to me for the Panthers were rookie running back Mike Goodson and Muhsin Muhammad. Goodson has had an outstanding preseason and if second year running back Jonathan Stewert can’t stay healthy, Goodson will get a shot and produce. Muhammad is a guy who is often overlooked because of his age, but there’s nobody else worth looking at in this wide receiver corps not named Steve Smith. Muhammad plays well and looks good for his age, continuing to defy his critics.
Jets 27, Giants 25
Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez looked much more comfortable against a solid Giants defense than he did against the Ravens. It’s not a shock—this is how he developed at USC last season. The play everyone has been talking about took place when Sanchez saw the Giants blitzing, scrambled out of the pocket and connected with Chansi Stuckey on a 31 yard pass—all while three defenders were breathing down his neck. Stuckey turned it into a TD and Sanchez took a step forward in his development.
Meanwhile, Thomas Jones is looking rough out there, especially next to Leon Washington. I thought Jones had another season left in him. That may not be the case and Shonn Greene—when he returns and is healthy—might steal his job by the end of 2009.
On the other side of the field, the Giants really could use some wide receiver help, with just about every player thrown to dropping at least one pass. Steve Smith dropped an easy touchdown. Mario Manningham dropped several. On the plus side, David Carr found rookie Hakeem Nicks for a pair of touchdowns and you can’t imagine seeing Nicks with the second stringers again this preseason. Eli Manning could use the help, after all.
49ers 20, Cowboys 13
The story of the weekend was injured wide receiver Roy Williams, who sat out with a shoulder injury which I believe happened when he leapt to catch a ball and ran into the low-hanging video board. Regardless, quarterback Tony Romo played well overall but struggled a bit, adding an interception to his 11/17, 125-yard effort. He could use more reps to get his timing down with his top wide receiver, so the Cowboys could use Williams back sooner than later. The only other note was Tashard Choice stood out with the backups, compiling 55 yards on eight carries.
The 49ers continue to improve overall, though Shaun Hill has a ways to go before he’s really solid at the quarterback spot. Rookie Nate Davis is someone I still say could be the future of the franchise and he looked very good, completing 10/15 for 132 yards. Davis also has some way to go before being ready for prime time, but could be an interesting developing player.
We’ve been talking about Glen Coffee at running back, but don’t forget fellow rookie Kory Sheets. Sheets looked solid with 11 carries for 42 yards a pair of touchdowns. The Niners will run a ton with Gore and likely Coffee. If Sheets continues to play hard, he’ll find a way to get a few carries in there and I think produce. If someone gets hurt, Sheets will get those carries.
Falcons 27, Chargers 24
Both teams looked ready for the season and the Chargers especially look like the far-and-away favorites to win the AFC West. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw for a nice 185 yards and led scoring drives on two of his three possessions. Rookie Gartrell Johnson put together a nice 77 total yards and journeyman Michael Bennett—of all people—had over 100 total yards, including three catches for 84 yards and a touchdown.
LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates watched from the sidelines but that didn’t hurt this offense one bit.
On the other side of the field, second year quarterback Matt Ryan is still looking like he just picked up from where he left off last season. His 14/20, 140-yard effort included a 12-yard touchdown toss to Brian Finneran.
Running back Michael Turner also looked rock solid with 47 yards on 12 carries. The only downside was running back Jerious Norwood’s knee injury, though that is believed to be day-to-day and not serious, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Seahawks 14, Chiefs 10
It just goes from bad to even more bad with the Chiefs. Sure, they lost the game, but the bigger loss might be quarterback Matt Cassel. Cassel was lost almost right away, dragged down by Defensive Tackle Brandon Mebane from behind.
Profootballtalk.com and Yahoo Sports both report Cassel has a MCL injury and might miss Week One. Of course, the Chiefs aren’t forthcoming with the injury information but that’s not shocking—it’s another ‘New England satellite franchise’ so what do we expect? They’re like Starbucks—they are everywhere.
Matt Hasselbeck looked good for the Seahawks, completing 19/25 for 216 yards and two touchdowns, one to second year tight end John Carlson (5-68-1) and one to new addition TJ Houshmandzadeh (5-60-1).
With Edgerrin James not yet playing, Julius Jones took the lion’s share of the carries and carried the rock fifteen times for 57 yards. The Seahawks say they will keep using him as the primary back, Edge or not, so until I see different, James’ impact is still an unknown quantity.
Bears 27 Broncos 17
In the Battle of Egos, former Bronco and current Bears quarterback Jay Cutler seems to have one over on his old team. Cutler put together a nice little 15/21, 144-yard performance with a touchdown to Matt Forte to cap it off. Cutler pumped his fist in celebration after that touchdown so, call me crazy, I think he wanted this one bad. Matt Forte looked good in limited action. While his yards per carry was low (2.33 after nine carries for 21 yards), he scored twice, once on the ground and once in the air. He totaled four catches for 11 yards so it could be that Cutler will utilize him more in the pass game than anticipated.
If that’s the case, his fantasy stock might actually manage to rise past Maurice Jones-Drew and challenge Adrian Peterson. Hard to imagine he’ll have 60 catches again, but 40? Not far-fetched.
Kyle Orton (12/16, 96 yards) didn’t look bad—he just didn’t look like Cutler. But he found Eddie Royal (5/44) often enough. Peyton Hillis continues to look good on the ground, where he carried the ball seven times for 27 yards and a touchdown as well as in the pass game, where he caught a pair of balls for 21 yards.
Rookie Kenny McKinley (3/76) also looked good but his biggest problem (as I talked about with Frank Schwab of the Colorado Springs Gazette last on Wednesday’s Thundering Blurb show) is inconsistency. McKinley still has some work to do, but could emerge in a year or so as a real player, especially if Brandon Marshall stays petulant and ends up leaving Denver.
Shaun Hill Wins 49ers QB Gig
Published: August 24, 2009
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Finally the San Francisco 49ers have named their starting quarterback, and as expected, at least by me, Shaun Hill will get the nod.
It’s unfortunate they waited so long as Hill now has just a few weeks before the season to work on his final timing and plays with the “A” team, but hopefully that will be enough.
Hill’s leadership and overall poise were pointed to as reasons for his ascendancy to the top spot. Alex Smith’s currently injured thumb probably pushed the decision forward as well, but again this was a move the staff was rumored to have liked a long, long time ago.
Hill played well in 2008 once he emerged from the chaos of the last days of the Mike Nolan regime, with solid if not spectacular football.
Hill lacks the arm that Alex Smith has, however he isn’t quite as squirrely in the pocket under pressure and is accurate in the short game.
He certainly looked at tight end Vernon Davis often in the first preseason games and I expect Davis to continue to be a beneficiary of Hill’s largess. As I have said before, this could be a big year for Vernon Davis.
Josh Morgan might not see the amount of deep balls he would have had Smith won the job, but the Niners need to stretch the field and Morgan is all they have. He has to show last season wasn’t a fluke, and I expect him to do a lot with his opportunities.
Isaac Bruce will probably see a good amount of targets—Hill looked to him often once he was in the drivers seat. While I think Morgan will see a ton of work now that he’s healthy (unlike last year), Bruce’s presence and reliability cannot be denied.
Overall, this was a move I—and many others—expected to happen at some point. Alex Smith has not been able to gain enough momentum at any point in his career to warrant much optimism, and that held true again this year.
In my opinion, neither quarterback will be the future of this franchise—perhaps Nate Davis has a chance at that. But Hill is a good enough QB to shepherd the 49ers through the NFC West this season
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Trent Edwards
Published: July 18, 2009
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For the last set of quarterback rankings, please check this article HERE.
Trent Edwards finds himself in a classic “put up or shut up” situation this year.
The Bills went out and made some noise by signing Terrell Owens to a single year contract, giving fellow wide receiver Lee Evans someone who will draw coverage off of him and Edwards a second legitimate target.
Of course, the danger with T.O. is well known—calling him “QB-Killer” wouldn’t be out of line. Still, he’s usually good for at least one season of production before an implosion and the Bills were wise in giving him just a year contract.
Plus, if you look at his history quarterbacks tend to do pretty well with him at least the first year.
So Edwards could be in line for a nice bump in production.
On the downside, Edwards is losing Marshawn Lynch for three games. Fred Jackson looked very good last year and the team brought in Dominic Rhodes, so one hopes the run game won’t stumble too badly to open the season.
Rhodes hasn’t been spectacular the last few seasons and we only have part of a season to go on in terms of gauging Jackson’s production though, so it is a bit of an unknown factor.
More concerning is the offensive line. There is a lot of disagreement as to how good a Left Tackle Jason Peters was, but the fact is, even a decent LT is at a premium and now Buffalo has three new guys filling in across the line.
It will be a worry up until the point we actually see them play and maybe even beyond. The AFC East will test them early and often and the defenses there will not be forgiving if the line shows itself to be weak.
Edwards himself could use the time a good offensive line would grant him. The longer he has, the better the chance he won’t check-down early and might throw the ball further down-field. Some of that is play-calling, but some of that is Edwards and if he’s going to take advantage of his new toys, he has to take a few more chances.
You know darn well T.O. will voice his displeasure if Edwards doesn’t throw to him, and if things start slow that’s going to be a concern.
So far in his career, Edwards hasn’t been a great Fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t throw for a ton of touchdowns (21 in 24 games, three of which were rushing scores) but let’s be honest here—Lee Evans can only do so much with every defensive back hanging onto his shoelaces while James Hardy, Josh Reed, and Roscoe Parrish flounder around the field. T.O. can make a huge difference.
I want to see what happens in Training Camp. How will he click with his new weapon? Can the offensive line gel? Will the run game miss any beat?
If some of these questions are answered in Training Camp, Edwards could go from a decent backup to something much more.
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Kyle Orton
Published: July 18, 2009
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For the last set of quarterback rankings, please check this article HERE.
At first blush, you have to wonder what Denver was thinking here.
First, the Broncos mishandle trying to trade for Matt Cassel, and then they completely screw up calming Cutler down.
Then they trade a franchise quarterback for a perennial backup.
Or did they?
Sure, Kyle Orton didn’t wow us back in 2005 when he stepped in to cover yet another glorious Rex Grossman setback and played well enough to not lose.
And sure, while he looked incredibly good in the first portion of the 2008 season, he hurt his ankle and then completely fell apart.
But a bad ankle can hurt any quarterback and shouldn’t diminish what he did when healthy.
So the question is: Which Orton is the one coming to Denver?
Certainly you have to credit Orton for stepping in during the 2005 season and holding the fort. It’s a lot to ask of any rookie, especially a guy like Orton who was a fourth round draft pick—expected to have to no more than back up duties to incumbent Rex Grossman in his first year.
He wasn’t perfect, throwing just 9 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. But he was serviceable.
It’s odd, but the perception is often that Orton is very accurate, and that’s not necessarily a fact. On the surface, his TD/INT ratio is almost 50/50 (30/27 actually). Mind you, it’s not much data to go on—he’s only got 33 games to go on.
But he’s not a laser-accurate passer by any means.
The other assumption is that Orton lacks the arm strength to take advantage of his wide receiver corps. But in the same breath, many say that Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal automatically spell big numbers for Orton.
Once again, we don’t have a good measure of what Orton can do based on just two seasons, one of which was filled with a lingering injury.
Certainly Marshall, Royal and—to a lesser but no less important extent—Brandon Stokley and Tony Scheffler, all contributed to Jay Cutler’s success.
But I would make the argument that he made them as much as they made him, if not more.
The fact is, I think Orton will benefit from throwing to the group of targets he has in Denver. He’ll also benefit from having to throw more than in Chicago.
Denver hasn’t yet made enough strides for the defense to avoid struggling again this year and it’s possible the team will find themselves behind often enough to where Orton may have to come from behind.
The question is whether Orton has what it takes to come from behind and succeed. According to stats on footballguys.com, trailing the opposition last season, Orton threw for 1,002 yards but had a TD/INT ratio of 6 TDs to 7 INTs.
Again, some of that surely comes down to his wide receivers. Still, some of that is Orton and he’ll need to be able to be more accurate in Denver.
In the end, I’m not totally sure what we can expect from Orton and that’s a great deal of the problem. He’s been hot and cold, produced well and not at all, had few decent wide receivers, and was in an offense which favored the run because they didn’t trust their quarterbacks.
He’s done a bunch of different things in different situations but what he hasn’t been is around long.
We have very little to go on which is dependable.
In this Denver offense, it’s tempting to just plug Orton in and assume the same numbers Cutler had will emerge. By the same notion—given the not-always-impressive numbers previously put up—it’s easy to dismiss him.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. But the doubts I have place him a little further back right now in my rankings.
I can’t get too hot and bothered about Orton, even if he played well half of one season. He’s got the job, so no Training Camp battle. But until camp starts, we won’t see how he clicks with his receivers – the best of which might not even be there.
This gets worse not better if Marshall gets traded or holds out (right now, Marshall says he’ll be in camp and the Broncos say they will not trade him). Again, nothing I can judge now.
So while I reserve the right to move him up later, in mid July, Orton is where he deserves to be on the list.
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Jay Cutler
Published: July 16, 2009
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On the surface, Chicago sure seemed to get the better of the Orton/Cutler trade. Denver got some nice draft picks, Orton, and a bag of chips, while Chicago got something it hasn’t had in an incredibly long time: a franchise quarterback.
Or did they?
There has been a ton of discussion about Cutler’s off-the-field issues and attitude and how it could affect his play. And from what I hear, there is some truth to the rumors out there.
Put that aside though, the more important question is: Who will he throw to?
The crux of that might come down to whether you think Cutler made Marshall/Royal or they made him?
I think the truth lies in the middle. It’s not the cop-out it may seem, if you look closely.
Cutler throws a lot. It’s the way he rolls and he has the arm to back it up, although sometimes his accuracy is a tad skittish. He’ll throw a ton, and it’s one of the worries I have for Matt Forte—the dump offs he got last year won’t be there as Cutler forces the ball downfield.
But back to Cutler: We know the Bears will have him throw the ball. They didn’t trade the house to have him hand it off. And we know he can throw the ball well and far.
He just isn’t throwing to quality wide receivers.
Two things are often mentioned when this comes up:
1) Devin Hester is JUST about to break out this year. I know people said it would happen last year but it WILL happen this year. Listen, I didn’t say it last year and I won’t this year. Hester is fast and deadly with the ball in his hands.
But getting the ball into his hands—well, he hasn’t shown me he can make the tough catches needed to be a top wide receiver. Marshall was able to adjust to some of Cutler’s ‘special’ balls. Hester? We’ll see.
2) Cutler knew Earl Bennett at Vandy—instant chemistry! I wouldn’t be my house on it. Sure, they know each other but they haven’t played together in a long time. Not saying they won’t click—but counting on it is a little risky.
The rest of the receiver corps is a collection of also-rans and rookies.
Now if this is the case, how is he currently 10 on my list?
Simple—he will elevate that group more than they pull him down. While I don’t think Hester is close to elite, he’s more than serviceable and his vertical game matches up well with Cutler’s.
Cutler also has Greg Olsen, a young tight end who can also stretch the field as well as make shorter catches.
Now while the Bears will run the ball, they won’t run it exclusively. I very much expect Cutler to throw more than hand off. In fact, Forte’s ability to run the ball will help open up the secondary for Cutler.
Still and all, you have to assume there will be some issues. So while I think he could put up very good numbers, I’d be leery of depending on him and only him for most of my season.
Cutler brings out some real emotion in many corners, as evidenced by my intense debate with Greg Kellogg on The Thundering Blurb Show recently. Somehow, you’re either with Cutler or against him and there is little in between.
If you can put aside your Bronco or Bear colored glasses, I think you’ll see a player who is a very good quarterback. Remember—regardless of the whining and less-than-distinguished manner of his departure from Colorado—that this is a Pro Bowl quarterback who can excel.
I believe that as a portion of your quarterback by committee—even the main part—you would be more than happy to have him.
But I also believe if you reach for him expecting top-five numbers, you run the risk of being disappointed and struggling this season at quarterback.
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart
Published: July 16, 2009
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It’s easy to just focus on Kurt Warner given the last few years.
While Matt Leinart has floundered with Internet drinking photos, poor displays of prowess in his limited game action, and perceived general lack of discipline, Kurt Warner keeps putting up great numbers.
At least that’s what it all looks like at first blush.
Warner certainly deserves the accolades for his 2008 season.
His 4,582 yards were his second highest total ever (second to his 4,830 in 2001) and his 30 touchdowns marked his third highest total. He also finished the season, something he hasn’t done as a starter in—well, let’s just say “in some time.”
That’s your first red flag, though. Call it luck, point to vastly improved offensive line play, say he got cybernetic implants—whatever the reason, he made it through the whole season without missing a game.
Never forget though, in his 11-year-old career, he has played a whole season as a starter just three times.
Sure, discount 1998 when he wasn’t a starter, or 2004 when Eli Manning stole his job. But historically, the man cannot stay healthy, and at 38, isn’t getting more durable with age.
There is a fair chance he will get banged up.
Then why, you may ask, do I have him as a top quarterback?
Well, simply put, he’s the starter on a dynamic pass-driven team with two of the best wide receivers in the game at his command. And no, I don’t expect Boldin to be traded at this point. Even if he was, Steve Breaston could step in very ably as well.
Even when he doesn’t play every game—like in 2007—he still put good enough numbers up to be a top 10 quarterback. The weapons at his disposal are just too good and if the blocking keeps up, the sky could be the limit.
Which brings us to Leinart, who has to make some sort of showing in his fifth year in the league.
He hasn’t done a whole heck of a lot thus far.
Leinart has athletic ability and I believe he has the general skill-set to succeed in the NFL, though after several years of a whole lot of nothing, I doubt he’ll ever reach an elite level.
As much as anything else, his head has gotten in his way. He was reportedly focused more during last season, as well as this offseason, but frankly, I’ll believe it pays off when I see it pay off.
Still, since Warner has had issues with injuries in the past and the offensive weapons are outstanding, you have to consider Leinart. Given the value he could have, it’s worth thinking about snagging him as a security blanket for Warner later in your draft.
However, until you see Leinart have even a moderate version, don’t grab him early expecting him to easily replicate Warner’s numbers if the old man can’t finish.
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Peyton Manning
Published: July 13, 2009
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For a complete look at my rankings, take a look at this article here. It will be edited to link to these breakdowns as I do them.
Peyton Manning used to be the picture of stability. Never got hurt, always had solid receivers and running backs. Coaching staff was the same guys (for the most part) for his whole career.
What a difference an offseason makes. At least he’s still incredibly durable.
Manning lost Head Coach Tony Dungy, a pair of other offensive coaches, and finally Marvin Harrison. While that happened, his main back Joseph Addai came up lame again and the offense as a whole started very slow last season as Manning himself came off injury.
But how much to worry?
Reggie Wayne has played well as the official No. 1 target in the offense. Harrison had been the nominal top cat in the pass attack but really Wayne has been the guy carrying a huge load for many years—Anthony Gonzalez.
Both underperformed last year, but are expected to bounce back. A big reason for the bad year was Manning’s own slow start recovering from a knee surgery which caused him to miss large portions of Training Camp.
At running back, rookie Donald Brown is expected to step in and at least spell Addai, if not replace him outright if Addai stays banged up. There is a good chance that the run game will be on track and help to set up the dynamic pass attack which feeds the Colts offensive attack.
As for the head coach, early reports are that Manning is just fine with new Head Coach Jim Caldwell and that the former offensive coaches who “retired” will be back in some capacity.
The disruption should be minimal. All the above concerns are something to keep an eye on but it shouldn’t be something which causes you to pass on him if you’re looking for a quarterback early, especially if Brees and Brady are gone.
Manning should be a top fantasy quarterback this season again, with less of a roller coaster experience than his owners felt in 2008.
Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Drew Brees
Published: July 13, 2009
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For a complete look at my rankings, take a look at this article here. It will be edited to link to these breakdowns as I do them.
It’s hard to imagine Drew Brees matching is output from 2008. 5,069 and 34 touchdowns isn’t a minor total.
The question isn’t can he do it again—it’s dangerous to assume he can, as rare as the yardage total is—but how close can he come?
The answer is: pretty darn close.
If you look at the totals since Brees arrived in New Orleans, the man has consistently put up very good yardage totals (4,418 in ’06 and 4,428 in ’07), with pretty good touchdown totals (26 and 28) to go with them.
The Saints are a team which loves to pass and Brees is a great fit for them. Somehow, New Orleans excels through the air even when they have lost huge chunks of their offense as they did last season when Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey were sidelined for portions of the year.
Yet players like Lance Moore, Pierre Thomas and Billy Miller filled in more than adequately. So far this offseason, everyone seems to be ready—and healthy—for camp.
Despite the ability that New Orleans has to replace cogs in their machine, the offense needs to stay healthy this season. You can’t lose guys like Colston every season and not slip at least a little.
Still, Brees is looking like a great bet to finish in the top three in fantasy at his position again this year.
The team loves to throw the ball, has the weapons to excel at it and the defense continues to put the team in positions where Brees has to throw. Even when they are ahead, though, this is a team that goes for the throat and does it through the air.
Brees has the weapons, the opportunity and the ability to top 4,000 yards with a more than respectable 25 or so touchdowns.
While it is very difficult to repeat numbers like Brees had last season, it’s hard to discount a guy who has been a top fantasy quarterback for several years in a row.
Add to this some concerns over Manning’s changing coaching staff and Brady’s coming back fro man injury and Brees has just enough going for him to edge out the first two for the top ranking.
Fantasy Football 2009: Quarterback Rankings For 7/9/09
Published: July 9, 2009
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There will be much deeper discussion about these ranking over the next couple of weeks, but by Training Camp these will change, maybe radically.
Blurb Breakdowns will start posting this weekend. I’ll begin with some of the obvious ones – Brees, Manning, Brady – and segue into the middle and long-shot guys as well.
As we go, feel free to request suggestions via my email, twitter, or facebook. When I add a breakdown, I will try to hotlink it to the player’s name here.
1 Drew Brees
2 Tom Brady
3 Peyton Manning
4 Kurt Warner
5 Donovan McNabb
6 Aaron Rodgers
7 Philip Rivers
8 Carson Palmer
9 Tony Romo
10 Jay Cutler
11 Matt Schaub
12 Matt Ryan
13 Ben Roethlisberger
14 Matt Hasselbeck
15 David Garrard
16 Eli Manning
17 Trent Edwards
18 Jake Delhomme
19 Jason Campbell
20 Kyle Orton
21 Matt Cassel
22 Joe Flacco
23 Chad Pennington
24 Marc Bulger
25 Shaun Hill
26 Kerry Collins
27 Brady Quinn
28 JaMarcus Russell
29 Mark Sanchez
30 Byron Leftwich
31 Brett Favre
32 Tarvaris Jackson
33 Josh Freeman
34 Kellen Clemens
35 Matthew Stafford
36 Sage Rosenfels
37 Daunte Culpepper
38 Derek Anderson
39 Jeff Garcia
40 Chad Henne
41 Vince Young
42 Alex Smith
43 Chris Simms
44 Matt Leinart
45 Jon Kitna
