Mike Blewitt’s NFL Power Rankings: End Of Season Edition

Since each NFL season carries with it the weight of expectations and the ultimate stark realities for every team and their fans, I tried something a little bit different for the final edition of NFL Power Rankings for the 2009 season.

With the end of the holiday season and the end of the NFL season running parallel to one another, I decided to get some of my friends, colleagues, and readers involved in the assessment of their respective team’s season. It’s a ranking by the people, for the people, if you will.

Also, I did not try to justify any non-playoff team being better than one who actually made “the tournament”—you’re either good enough or you’re not (I’m looking at you Steelers, Texans, and Falcons). On that note, I wish you all a Happy New Year, thanks for reading, and one last time…let’s navigate all the way from No. 1 to No. 32…

 

1.   San Diego Chargers (13-3) : Ten wins to close out the year and a red-hot offense has San Diego ranked at the top of the list. My preseason pick for the AFC Super Bowl rep looks to be in great shape all around but “uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.” A well-earned bye week awaits the Bolts.

2.   Indianapolis Colts (14-2) : All one can say is “I hope they know what they’re doing.” They bailed on the 19-0 campaign only to insert starters in horrible conditions for personal milestones—seems counter intuitive. A loss in their first game of the playoffs will bring the entire organization into question but we have a week to wait on that debate.

3.   New Orleans Saints (13-3) : From 13-0 to 13-3 is not the way to close things out but the Saints don’t appear to be concerned about it. They earned home-field advantage throughout and will await some legit potential opponents for next week. The league’s No. 1 offense should be fine in the comfort of the Superdome.

4.   Minnesota Vikings (12-4) : The Vikings pounded the Giants into the next decade and earned a week off. Similar to the Saints, the Vikes will enjoy the comfort of dome and weather has been eliminated as a factor in the NFC playoffs altogether. Can Favre pull off another title and walk into the sunset? And then come back again?

5.   Dallas Cowboys (11-5) : Big D posted consecutive shutouts for first time in franchise history and grabbed the NFC East title, but this ranking is based on how I think they stack up. ML from Boston: “I came away satisfied from the season but not feeling Dallas has played their best yet—too many penalties and poor tackling.” For his sake, let’s hope he’s right. And, would Wade survive a first round loss to Philly?

6.   Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) : Despite getting shellacked in Dallas on Sunday, MM likes his team to come back and beat Dallas this week but concedes, “the defense will not get them to the Super Bowl…and anything short of that is a disappointment.” Andy Reid has never lost a first-round playoff game and if he does this week, there will be no calls for his head given the contract extension he just signed.

7.   Green Bay Packers (11-5) : The Packer bandwagon is pretty full at this stage. The sixth-ranked offense and the second-ranked defense reside in Green Bay, and QB Aaron Rodgers looks the part of a seasoned veteran, except he has no postseason experience. Arizona may not be bad place for this team to start even thought the smackdown last week was against backups.

8.   Arizona Cardinals (10-6) : The Cardinals are not an easy team to figure out. Last year, they shocked the football world and nearly won the Super Bowl after a 9-7 season so given their explosive nature on offense, it would not be wise to count them out. Looking towards 2010, a lot will depend on Kurt Warner and/or Matt Leinart’s future.

9.   New England Patriots (10-6) : A meaningless game in Houston resulted in a loss on the scoreboard and the loss of go-to WR Wes Welker who is out for the playoffs after wrecking his knee. With Tom Brady rumored to be ailing as well, the Pats’ playoff expectations have taken a hit in the public’s eyes. Even die-hard New England fan RS admits “this team seems destined for a second round playoff loss at San Diego.”

10. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) : The AFC North champs did very little against the Jets last Sunday so that they could prepare for, um, the Jets on Sunday. Hosting a playoff game in Cincinnati will be a solid home-field advantage, but if they don’t stop the rushing attack early, they will be home early. Overall, Marvin Lewis finally has his team built the way he wants moving into the new decade.

11. New York Jets (9-7) : Living in NY, I am surrounded by slightly euphoric Jets fans this week who are dreaming of a Super Bowl appearance. DA is “very happy with Rex Ryan as he learned…and got better.” LJ adds “Sanchez’s regression was a bit alarming but I think there’s a reason to be optimistic for the future.” It seems most Jets fans would love a win this week in Cincy but are realistic about not advancing after that…for now… 

12. Baltimore Ravens (9-7) : The Ravens did what they needed to do in Oakland by running all over The Black Hole. They make the third playoff appearance in four years and will head to New England to try to advance. Joe Flacco’s less than stellar play (9TDs and 7 INTs in his last nine games) has some worried and a banged-up Ed Reed further hurts their chances to advance but with the way the Pats look, they may just steal one before bowing out.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) : MO agreed that watching the Steelers blow five fourth quarter leads was excruciating but “it might have been worse watching the Jets win two games that the other teams just handed to them.” Even with the Polamalu injury and winning out tough games against Green Bay, Baltimore, and Miami, there are no excuses for the Steelers dropping earlier games to the Chiefs and Raiders. Getting healthy, building some depth through the draft, and revamping special teams is likely to be the approach to get back to the playoffs in 2010.

14. Tennessee Titans (8-8) : Closing the season on an 8-2 run ranks them right up there at the top of the league in those last 10 games. Unfortunately, there are those pesky six losses to open the season that did not vanish from the record. But, the Vince Young Era has officially resumed and they will go into 2010 with a clear picture of who is leading them; Chris Johnson will be tearing up opposing defenses as well.

15. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) : A win over the Bucs secured consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history. Unfortunately, the Falcons were the only NFC team with a winning record to miss the “second season” but DH from Atlanta is less worried about “not meeting lofty expectations” for 2009 than he is about QB “Matt Ryan not progressing from his rookie year.”

16. Houston Texans (9-7) : The Texans beat the Pats to secure their first-ever winning season but the celebration was tempered after being eliminated from the playoffs on tiebreakers. Matt Schaub led Gary Kubiak’s explosive offense very well, and the defense has plenty of talent but poor special teams play led to some close losses that find them on the outside looking in yet again.

17. Carolina Panthers (8-8) : John Fox teams never quit; you have to give him credit for that. Saddled with an aging, expensive QB in Jake Delhomme the team struggled until he was injured. Backup Matt Moore won four of the last five games to get them back to .500 which gave all the doubters “evidence” to call for Delhomme’s pink slip. Changes will be made to the roster but expect the Panthers to challenge for the playoffs in 2010.

18. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) : The Niners throttled the Rams to close out the season winning three of their last four to finish a respectable 8-8 but clearly, the expectations are higher in San Fran. Mike Singletary: “In order to make wise decisions, we have to evaluate closely what we need to do. We’re going to take our time and be thorough.” So far, the special teams coach has been axed and while Alex Smith remains the top guy for now, the QB question will rage on throughout the offseason.  

19. Denver Broncos (8-8): The most hot-and-cold team in the NFL this year along with the Giants, the Broncos 6-0 start did not hold up when they lost their last four games to miss the important January games. Rookie head coach Josh McDaniels will have to deal with more drama regarding star wideout Brandon Marshall which is likely to end up in a trade around draft time. To an extent, I feel like they overachieved based on expectation but the perception is that they choked big time in ‘09.

20. Miami Dolphins (7-9) : Miami’s playoff hopes were officially dashed with a loss to the Steelers. KK from NYC thought his Dolphins had “hope and promise with a young, flourishing QB, but momentum was lost when Ronnie Brown went down.” Never lacking confidence in his beloved Fish he “guaranteed an AFC East title” in 2010.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) : The Jags stood at 7-5 and controlled their own destiny to the playoffs only to drop their last four and end the season with a loud thud in Cleveland. Head coach Jack Del Rio is likely to stick, as he is owed $15 million over three years and rumors of the team being for sale swirl constantly these days. Del Rio tagging his QB David Garrard as “middle-tier” this week is accurate but a strange motivational tool when there is no football for such a long period after that commentary.

22. Chicago Bears (7-9) : While the Bears ended the season on a positive note by winning their last two, KL from Los Angeles summed up ‘09 by saying “this season got intercepted by another errant Cutler throw.” Ouch. The guillotine fell hard in Chicago already as six coaches were let go this week.

23. New York Giants (8-8) : The Giants uncharacteristically mailed in the last two games, getting blown out and costing people jobs, namely defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan. AJ from PA sees a glaring “need for personnel changes” and “wouldn’t be surprised to see as many as 10 new starters,” which is a long way from where the expectations were going into the season.

24. Cleveland Browns (5-11) : Jerome Harrison put the team on his back in this last month to close out 2009 on a positive note. TR says the Browns were “disappointing in every aspect” but admits that you “can’t sleep” on their first four-game winning streak since 1994. The Mangini-hating also seems to have quieted with the wins and the arrival of football guru Mike Holmgren. Promise in Cleveland? Always…

25. Oakland Raiders (5-11) : When a team is 5-10 and down eight points with three minutes to go in its final game, is punting and playing the field position/timeouts strategy really the way to go? Live a little, Tom Cable, it’s not like your job hung in the balance during the loss to the Ravens. Or maybe it did, I don’t know, but I’m not about to try to get into Al Davis’ head—I may never come back. Cable throwing JaMarcus Russell under the bus will not help save his gig since Al is apparently still a fan—we’ll know more next week regarding this soap opera.

26. Buffalo Bills (6-10) : The Bills beat up on the fake Colts in the snow and then fired the entire coaching staff following a very disappointing year that saw them finish in last place in the AFC East for the second year in a row. Interim head coach Perry Fewell will interview for the head job there but he is unlikely to land it as they look for someone with a strong resume to come in and turn this around. Bill Cowher will provide writers like me with a lot of puns, so, there’s that…

27. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) : The Chiefs surprisingly stomped the Broncos right out of the playoffs with a resounding win at Denver. KC was a sneaky sleeper pick for many before the year but after ranking 25th in offense and 30th in defense, it appears the rebuild will continue onward towards 2010.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13) : After the Bucs dropped the finale to Atlanta, RH wondered “Does the ship have a rudder?” which indicts everyone from the Glazers down through rookie Head Coach Raheem Morris. While Morris was officially retained, wholesale changes will need to be made to the roster and among the coaching staff. Josh Freeman has shown potential, but we all know that’s a long way from being any good at the QB position in this league.

29. Washington Redskins (4-12) : Jim Zorn was our first postseason coaching casualty as new GM Bruce Allen made his first major move after a disastrous season. The ‘Skins lost 18 of their last 24 games under Zorn and have more roster issues now than when he first came on board. Kevin H. from D.C.: “Poor coaching and bad players…you get what you see.” I think Kevin will feel just fine with new coach Mike Shanahan but will Jason Campbell be around for 2010?

30. Detroit Lions (2-14) : Everyone expected a long road ahead for the Lions and two separate six-game losing streaks locked up the No. 2 pick in the draft. Building blocks like QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson on offense are bright spots for 2010.

31. Seattle Seahawks (5-11) : There’s nothing worse than watching a team quit like the Seahawks did this season. They didn’t make it too tough for the Titans’ Chris Johnson to break the NFL yards-from-scrimmage record but they have made it tough for their fans to have faith in the direction of the team. What can Jim Mora, Jr. say to defend himself, that “we played like diddley-poo?”?

32. St. Louis Rams (1-15) : CG said about his beloved Rams: “With so many holes and so few current players showing much, it is hard not to see this as a three-plus year project back to respectability.” It may not be the sexiest No. 1 overall pick ever but everyone’s guess is that it will be Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh since he will be a stable building block in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense for years to come. With that, the Rams are officially on the clock…

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2010 NFL Power Rankings: Playoff Edition

You can never learn anything if you don’t retrace your steps.

That’s why, instead of merely assessing each team’s standing in the rankings for the final Power Rankings of the season, this writer is looking back to Week One, both to judge the teams that failed us, as well as the writer’s original thoughts on the team.

The original 2009 Week One NFL Power Rankings can be found here.

Take a look at where each team was and then take a look at where it finished on the season.

 

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

They only lost because they sat their starters. They don’t drop from the top spot. Not a chance.

2. San Diego Chargers (13-3)

Make it 11 straight wins. Is it just me, or is this the 2008 Colts all over again?

3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

The Vikings finished on a terrific note and showed that they impose their will on others on both sides of the ball when they’re clicking. The week off should do them some good.

4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

They get Philly for the second straight week. Ouch. Good thing it’s at home.

5. New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Three straight losses to end the season? Yikes. They’ll need every bit of that first round bye to remember what it was like to win a game.

6. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

They’re a hot team with seven wins in their last eight games. But do you think their inexperience will show against a Cardinals team that was in the Super Bowl last year? I do.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

There’s no denying their solid defense and explosive offense, but something isn’t right about this team. They can’t be too confident about going back to Dallas, the same place they just got shut out of in Week 17.

8. New England Patriots (10-6)

Losing Wes Welker sums up this entire season. This team has either disappointed or simply been underwhelming all season long. Still, with Tom Brady and Randy Moss, you just can’t count them out.

9. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

Why do I get the feeling that Ken Whisenhunt didn’t try too hard against the Packers in Week 17?

10. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

Is there even an inkling of a chance that the Jets blow them out of the water this week? Nah.

11. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

If you take a close look at every game they’ve played, this team could easily be 15-1 if things went a little bit differently. The Patriots should be at least a little afraid.

12. New York Jets (9-7)

Mark Sanchez endured a trying rookie season. Now it’s over. His second season starts in the playoffs, and we’re about to find out if he learned anything in those previous 17 weeks.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

It was a nice run, but as the old adage says: Too little, too late.

14. Houston Texans (9-7)

Congratulations to Gary Kubiak for getting Houston its first winning season, and for keeping his job. For now.

15. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

They closed out the season in strong fashion, reminding next year’s competition that if it weren’t for some injuries and the fact that they faced the Saints twice, they could be in the playoffs.

16. Carolina Panthers (8-8)

John Fox and his staff are back for at least one more year after a strong finish. Just cross your fingers that he’s sticking with the impressive Matt Moore and not Jake Delhomme.

17. Tennessee Titans (8-8)

After starting 0-6, reaching 8-8 is like getting to the Super Bowl. Vince Young has fought his way back to the top. Now let’s just see if he can hold on in 2010.

18. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

They finished the season strong and know now that Alex Smith is their guy. Whether he can get them to the playoffs, however, is a whole different debate.

19. Miami Dolphins (7-9)

It’s never easy when you play in the AFC. Injuries and inconsistency killed Miami down the stretch, but they still showed they can play with just about anybody. They’ll be back in the hunt for their division next season.

20. Chicago Bears (7-9)

It was nice to see Jay Cutler and the offense play like they did in the past two weeks. Now, if he could only get some real weapons.

21. Denver Broncos (8-8)

Two four-game losing streaks show how inconsistent this team really is. But don’t lay it all on Josh McDaniels. The rookie head coach turned a lot of heads with his strong philosophy.

22. New York Giants (8-8)

Tom Coughlin has to be on the hot seat once again after a collapse like that.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)

The Jags lose four straight to drop out of the playoff race, and Jack Del Rio gets his job? I’ve never seen a coach do so little to earn so much.

24. Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Perry Fewell and the rest of the coaching staff are gone. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the offensive side of the ball.

25. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Was a four-game winning streak enough to save Eric Mangini’s job? It probably shouldn’t be. The addition of Mike Holmgren shows this team is finally serious about winning.

26. Oakland Raiders (5-11)

The big question mark continues to be at quarterback. Does Al Davis dare draft another passer in the first round?

27. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

They ended the season on a high note with an impressive offensive performance. That Jamaal Charles is something special.

28. Seattle Seahawks (5-11)

Matt Hasselbeck can’t get it done anymore. If this team wants to win in the next two to three years, they need to move in another direction at quarterback.

29. Washington Redskins (4-12)

Firing Jim Zorn was the right move. So was bringing in Mike Shanahan. Two good moves in a row for the Redskins? This is unheard of.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)

Raheem Morris was retained for good reason. He developed a young team into a competitive bunch and turned a young quarterback into a solid performer. They’ll be better next season.

31. Detroit Lions (2-14)

They won two more game than they did last season. Getting that winning feeling was step one. Now it’s all about the development of Matthew Stafford.

32. St. Louis Rams (1-15)

They need a quarterback badly. Steven Jackson can’t keep doing it on his own.

 

For more NFL news and articles, go here.

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NFL Playoffs: Worst to First, Ranking the 12 Quarterbacks Left Standing

In any number of ways, this past decade could rightfully be called the decade of the passer.

In 2009, this is especially true. Now, passing success has always been a large indicator of a team’s success, but it seems that having an elite quarterback is the hallmark of every playoff team still alive.

It seems a given that having an elite player at such a key position would be a fast track to the playoffs, but you could argue that the league’s best running back, cornerback, inside linebacker, defensive tackle, wide receiver and left tackle are all sitting home right now.

(For posterity’s sake that list would be Chris Johnson, Nnamdi Asamugha, Patrick Willis, Albert Haynesworth, Andre Johnson and Joe Thomas, in my humblest opinion, though Darrelle Revis is just as good as Asamugha)

Contrast that with the fact that the only elite quarterbacks not in the playoffs are Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, and it’s obvious: the NFL is a quarterback-driven league.

With that, let’s rank the 2009 playoff quarterbacks from worst to first, based on their current level of play and what we can expect to see from them in the playoffs.

Begin Slideshow

NFL Wild-Card Weekend: Packers Vs. Cardinals | Preview & Predictions

 

Wild-card Weekend

Green Bay Packers  vs. Arizona Cardinals  (-1 )            Current Over/Under 47

4:40 PM ET, January 10, 2010: U of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ on FOX

In the third rematch from a week ago, 11-5 Green Bay returns to the desert to take on 10-6 Arizona in a 4:40 P.M. start. The Packers come into this game as the #5 seed, clinching a spot two weeks ago with a win over Seattle, while the Cardinals are the #4 seed after clinching their second straight NFC West title with a win over Detroit in week 15.

In last week’s game both teams realized there was a very good chance that they would be facing each other in the first round, so you had no idea what to expect. Arizona pretty much folded up the tent early as QB Kurt Warner only saw limited action as did many of the other starters.Green Bay on the other hand decided to go full tilt for almost three quarters and the result was a 33-7 throttling of the Cardinals.

It is hard to say which team’s approach will pay off in this game, but one thing is certain; the Packers are playing at a high level and last week’s display at the very least has to put a bit of fear into their opponent’s hearts. Statistically, little can be taken from last week, but Packer QB Aaron Rodger’s performance was nothing short of perfect. He completed 21 of 26 attempts for 235 yards and one TD for a passer rating of 117.1

Green Bay heads into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league. After an embarrassing 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay in week nine, they went on to win seven of their final eight games, with their only loss coming against Pittsburgh on a last second TD. While their offense has averaged almost 31 points a game in this span, their defense has only given up an average of 14. Overall they are ranked sixth in total offense and Second in total defense.

The real heart and soul of this team has been Rodgers. Despite the fact he has been sacked a league high 50 times, he has shown the ability to take a hit in order to make the play. While he has thrown for over 4,400 yards he has also run for over 300, making him a legitimate threat with both his arm and his feet.

Arizona biggest concern heading into the playoffs is trying to figure out which team is going to show up on Sunday. They hope it is the one that completely dominated Minnesota in a 30-17 win back in week 13 and not the team that lost to San Francisco 24-9 the very next week. In last year’s dramatic playoff run that took them all the way to the Super Bowl their defense had as much to do with their success as their offense.If they are to have any chance to repeat this performance they are going to have to play much better than they have so far as they are giving up far too many yards on the ground and through the air.

Offensively they have QB Kurt Warner and WR’s Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin which is still enough to beat almost anyone. Rookie RB Beanie Wells provides some run support, but they are still going to try and beat you throwing the ball.

For Green Bay, it comes down to sticking to their game plan on both sides of the ball. They have an offense that can go point for point with Arizona if they have to and a defense that can easily prevent that from being the case. They need to continue to protect Rodgers as he has only been dropped two times in the last three games. If he has time in the pocket he should be able to pick Arizona’s 23^rd  ranked pass defense apart.

For Arizona, this game rests squarely on the shoulders of Warner. When he is in the zone there are few defenses that can stop him as he has the ability to get rid of the ball quickly and find the open man. Another key will be the health of Boldin, who is suffering from a sprained left ankle. They need him at full speed to keep Fitzgerald from getting double teamed. Defensively they need DT Darnell Dockett and the rest of the defensive line to put some kind of pressure on Rodgers to keep him from getting into any kind of rhythm.

Arizona had a magical run in last year’s playoffs, but that was a much more balanced team than this year’s version. Green Bay is playing as good as anyone and has a defense that matches up very well against the Cardinal’s strengths. I’m taking the Packers and the OVER .

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NFL Wild-Card Weekend: Ravens vs. Patriots

NFL Wild-card Weekend

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3.5)       Current Over/Under 43

In the early game on Sunday, the 9-7 Baltimore Ravens will travel to Foxboro to play the 10-6 New England Patriots in a 1:00 p.m. start.

It took them to the final week of the regular season, but Baltimore was able to scratch and claw their way into the postseason by winning three out of their last four games to wind up earning the No. 6 seed.

New England had their share of ups and downs this season but they were also able to pull things together down the stretch winning three of four to capture the AFC East and lock up the No. 3 seed. These teams did meet earlier in the year with the Patriots coming away with a 27-21 win at home.

The Ravens head into the postseason after pounding out a 21-13 win over Oakland last week. Despite the fact that the Raiders had only won five games all year, they still gave them all they could handle doing their best to play spoiler two years in a row after knocking Tampa out of the playoffs in 2008.

Baltimore relied on a solid ground game racking up 240 rushing yards with Willis McGahee accounting for 167. Second-year QB Joe Flacco, who has struggled at times this year managed the game well completing 11-of-19 attempts. Overall, like many of the Ravens games the second half of this season it was not necessarily pretty, but effective.

New England came into the final week with the sole intention of staying healthy, as a win or loss had little bearing on their playoff position. Unfortunately that did not prove to be the case as their go-to receiver, as Wes Welker went down with a left knee injury early in the first quarter and is lost for the season. They went on to lose to Houston 34-27, but that pales in comparison to the loss of Welker.

Baltimore has been a hard team to figure out all season long. In their first seven games they scored over 30 points five times. In their last nine games they went over that total only twice; against Detroit and Chicago.

Their defense has remained solid, giving up an average of 16.3 points and 300.5 yards per game which is third best in the league, but Flacco’s overall inconsistency offensively have been part of the Ravens’ problems. He did throw for over 3,600 yards with a passer rating of 88, but it did not always translate to points on the board. The real strength of this offense is their running game led by Ray Rice. Rice ended up with 1339 rushing yards on 254 attempts for an average of 5.3 yards per carry. He also had 78 receptions for 702 yards to go over 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the year.

As Tom Brady goes, so does New England. After missing almost all last season with a knee injury, Brady got off to a slow start, but was still able to lead his team to six wins in their first eight games. After losses to Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Miami people began to question if they would even make the postseason, but in typical Brady fashion he rallied the team to another division title.

Statistically, this team is as good as any other in the playoffs. Their offense is ranked third overall, and their defense, which has bared much of the blame for a subpar season by their standards, is ranked fifth in points allowed.

For Baltimore, they need Rice to come up with his biggest game of the year in order to control the clock and minimize Brady’s time on the field. They are not going to beat the Patriots with Flacco having to throw the ball 30-40 times.

Defensively, they need to take Randy Moss out of the game as he is still a deep threat. Without Welker in the lineup, this could be the perfect time to force Brady to beat you with his arm as he will most likely struggle without his favorite target.

For New England, they need Moss to get open down-field and make a few big plays to put some quick points on the board. They will struggle to run against the Ravens, so Brady will have to be able to spread the ball around to which ever receivers are in the game. Keep an eye on rookie WR Julian Edelman as he could come up big in this one. Defensively, they have to contain Rice and keep him from tearing off any big runs. Their best bet is to try and rattle Flacco from the start to throw him off his game.

You cannot discount the loss of Welker to New England, but you also cannot discount the resolve of this team. They have been there before and know how to win these types of games. Baltimore will be able to keep this one close, but in the end it will not be enough. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

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2010 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1

The 2010 NFL Draft is still a while away, but it’s never too early to speculate!

 

1: St Louis Rams- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska.  While it is true that St. Louis needs a quarterback badly, I think that Suh is too good of a player to pass up and is a presence that will instantly improve a teams defense. 

2: Detroit Lions- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State.  The Lions didn’t do much last year to strengthen their offensive line, and Okung is a big man who can provide big help to an offense that struggles with moving the ball.

3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma.  Tampa Bay has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Gerald McCoy is second only to Suh in this draft and, while not as imposing as Suh, can still make himself heard on the field.

4: Cleveland Browns- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee.  The Browns are in the same boat as the Bucs in having a poor defense.  Their offense has picked up as of late and could be on their way to being decent on that front, but their D really needs work.

5: Kansas City Chiefs- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland.  Kansas City has heavily invested in Matt Cassel and now they need to protect him.  Kansas City has allowed some of the most sacks in the league and Campbell could really help solidifying their O-line.

6: Washington Redskins- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma.  Despite having injury concerns, Bradford is still one of the best QB’s in the draft.  Washington has seen that Jason Campbell isn’t consistent enough to be the QB of the future, and Shanahan could mold Bradford into a champion.

7: Buffalo Bills- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame.  Buffalo is atrocious while passing the ball.  Starter Ryan Fitzpartrick only threw 9 touchdowns all season and any time that T.O. only has 5 TD catches in a season, you know there are problems.

8: Seattle Seahawks- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers.  Seattle is very bad running the ball and an offensive line would be a good start to recovering.  Since Shaun Alexander, they haven’t had a prolific rusher. 

9: Denver Broncos (From Chicago)- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama.  Denver is a better team starting 6-0, but they continue to fall off.  Orton is good enough to build around, at least for now, but their defense still needs work.  McClain is the best linebacker in the draft and should go to work immediately.

10: Oakland Raiders- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma.  The Raiders are in flux on who their QB will be going forward.  The only thing that isn’t a question is that they need to protect whoever that QB might be.

11: San Fransisco 49ers- Joe Haden, CB, Florida.  The 49ers have two first round picks and Haden is too good of a talent to overlook this early.  Haden coming out early will make the 49ers happy come the 2010 season.

12: San Fransisco 49ers- Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa.  The 49ers also need an offensive lineman to help give Frank Gore a running lane.  Bulaga is a great run blocker and is proven to be effective.

13: Houston Texans- Earl Thomas, S, Texas.  Houston is on the verge of being a very good team, but they still need some secondary help.  Earl Thomas is a great lock down safety.

14: Tennessee Titans- Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida.  Tennessee is in the same boat as Houston, they have a lot of potential but have some holes.  Brandon Spikes is an absolute beast and will provide some balance on the defensive side.

15: Pittsburgh Steelers- Taylor Mays, S, USC.  With Troy Polamalu being injury prone as of late, the Steelers need a backup plan.  Mays is no Polamalu yet, but he is a solid backup and in time could work opposite of Polamalu.

16: New York Jets- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech.  This is a great steal in the 16th pick.  Morgan is a terrific pass rusher and can run stop as well.  The Jets need some help pressuring the opposing QB’s and Morgan can definitely do that.

17: Atlanta Falcons- Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State.  The Falcons have some problems in the secondary and Robinson is one of the best CB’s in this years class.

18: Miami Dolphins- Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama.  Terrance Cody isn’t the best athlete in this draft but his shear size and magnitude make him an amazing run stopper.

19: Baltimore Ravens- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas.  Ray Lewis is getting up there in age and now is a good time to start prepping the next batch of line backers to take his spot. 

20: New York Giants- Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina.  New York has some holes in their defense, especially stopping the run.  Carter is a fast linebacker and could fill some holes on the corner.

21: Jacksonville Jaguars- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State.  Some people think Tebow will be Jacksonville’s pick at this spot, but I think that he is a second rounder.  Dez Bryant is a very good WR and the Jaguars need some potency on offense.

22: New England Patriots- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson.  It’s a wonder that Spiller fell this far in my draft but no one really needs a running game as a top priority.  He is a very versatile player and the Patriots could use some mobility in the backfield.

23: Green Bay Packers- Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama.  This is my surprise pick in this mock draft.  The Packers have an aging secondary and Javier Arenas is a sleeper at the CB position.  He is very athletic and has good speed.

24: Philadelphia Eagles- Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State.  The Eagles need some help at linebacker and Bowman is one of the best athletes in this years class.  He is also a good run stopper, which the Eagles have struggled against as of late.

25: Dallas Cowboys- Ricky Sapp, DE, Clemson.  Dallas has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  Their pass rush is good but could still use some work.  Sapp is fast off the edges and could be a solid player down the road.

26: Seattle Seahawks (From Denver)-Colt McCoy, QB, Texas.  Hasselbeck is getting old and McCoy could probably have 2 seasons to sit behind Hasselbeck to learn the pro game.  In the end, this is a very good pick for the Seahawks.

27: Arizona Cardinals- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma.  Gresham is a true specimen at the TE spot.  He is a great receiving tight end, though his blocking could use some work.  In a throw first offense, expect Jermaine to be an instant weapon.

28: Cincinnati Bengals- Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame.  With the tragic loss of Chris Henry, the Bengals need a playmaker to accompany Chad Ochocinco.  Golden Tate is small, but fast.  He could be a great replacement for Henry.

29: Indianapolis Colts- Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse.  The Colts are about as solid as can be.  They could use some help on the defensive line and Jones could be a solid starter in the next couple of years.

30: New Orleans Saints- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida.  The Saints will fall flat in the NFC Championship and their defense will be to blame.  It’s no secret how good their offense is, but their D gives up too many points.  Pierre-Paul is a good pass rusher and could help them out.

31: San Diego Chargers- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida.  The Chargers could use some help stopping the run and Dunlap is a good run stopper.  His size and speed make him good off the edge too.

32: Minnesota Vikings- Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan.  This is another surprise pick.  Dan LeFevour is simply a winner.  He has set numerous NCAA records and has an amazing arm.  The Vikings will need a replacement for Favre and someone to compete with Jackson for the starting role.

Well there it is.  These are my picks for the draft.  Leave your thoughts, suggestions and opinions.  Thank you for reading!

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Who Will Win The NFL MVP Award? Peyton Manning Appears Most Deserving

It is without question the greatest honor an individual player can earn in the National Football League.

It is the Associated Press’ NFL league MVP award and it is given to the absolute best player the NFL has to offer.

Or at least, that is the intent.

No, it’s not the top goal of these NFL stars to win this MVP award, but winning it can often be more reflective of an individual’s contributions than any other accolade the NFL has to offer.

Right now, the NFL’s finest teams are preparing for the post-season and their goal is to win the Super Bowl.

But more often than not, the best player in the NFL does not happen to play for the best team.

It’s a sad reality that many people fail to come to grips with because they desire so much for that best player to be paired with the best team.

How poetic.

It is the reason why we have seen less productive players pushed beyond their capacity for actual performance on the field into the realm of beloved heroism for exploits achieved by their entire team (as a whole) while they themselves continue to contribute less than should be expected for aforementioned praise they receive.

Right now, I’m talking league MVP’s.

I’m talking about players who at an individual level, contribute more to their team’s chances of winning than anyone else in the National Football League.

This year, we have a number of qualified candidates but none more deserving than the most productive player in the 90-year history of the sport.

Peyton Manning.

We’re talking about a man who, despite the loss of a future Hall of Fame head coach, the loss of a starting wide receiver, and backed by the worst rushing support in the entire league, managed to perform at a level above and beyond what he contributed on the football field during times far more favorable.

We’re talking about a guy who helped lead his team to an undefeated record.

No, that’s not a typo.

Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts went 14-0 while Curtis Painter’s Indianapolis Colts went 0-2.

Or perhaps you are of the belief that the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills were simply better teams than the Colts.

I’m not concerned with the perception of reality.

I value reality itself.

You often hear people saying that “most people believe that…” and that is exactly what I’m disregarding.

False perceptions of reality.

But lets talk about this year’s MVP award.

The goal of each player might be to win the Super Bowl, but the best player from an individual standpoint is honored with an award that is reflective of 80-percent-plus of an entire season, not simply its conclusion.

For the same reason that Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning in 2007 and for the same reason that Peyton Manning was better than Ben Roethlisberger in 2008, this year’s MVP (should) represent the best player the NFL has to offer regardless of what happens from this point forward.

League MVP’s who happen to win championships during the same season are a rare breed, and ones that should be valued beyond measure.

Peyton Manning will have the chance to do that this season, as will the runners-up to the MVP award.

While the award has yet to be announced, I imagine that Manning will capture the votes necessary to pull away with the honor, despite the number of candidates who might take some votes away from him.

Drew Brees and Brett Favre come to mind for me, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Philip Rivers gets a few more votes that he deserves.

Rivers has had an impressive season, but I feel the “high” journalists have been on lieu of the Chargers 11-game winning streak might push Rivers to the top of some voters’ lists.

The issue I have here is the one that is bound to be overlooked.

As I see it, the MVP award is given to the best player in the NFL over the course of the entire regular season.

A great performance in week 16 is no more or less valuable than a great performance on opening weekend.

Had the Chargers began their winning streak early but lost three games towards the end of the season, Rivers wouldn’t even be in this discussion.

It’s the very reason why Drew Brees will not get the recognition he deserves.

By contrast, if the Colts started off 0-2 and won their next 14, this MVP race wouldn’t even be up for debate.

The point being, voters should not get consumed with what has happened more recently because the league MVP award is not about the finish, it’s about the entire season as a whole.

Then we have Chris Johnson.

A player who has certainly had an MVP-caliber season from a running-back’s perspective.

But that just so happens to be the problem; no matter how unfair it might seem.

I don’t hold the Titans’ 8-8 record against Johnson one bit.

It is not as though his NFL record 2,509 total yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns weren’t enough to give his Titans the best opportunity to win.

Football, being the team sport that it is, requires far more than the performance of one MVP-caliber player to get them as far as they’d like to go.

In Johnson’s case, I hold the fact that he is a running-back against him (only) as it pertains to this year’s MVP race.

Quarterbacks might often receive the lion’s share of the recognition, but no player on the field has the opportunity to contribute as much to their team’s chances of winning.

Johnson ran for 2,006 yards, but Matt Shaub threw for 4,770.

Johnson scored 16 total touchdowns, yet Drew Brees threw for 34.

It’s simply the nature of the position and for the same reason that no defensive player will have any reasonable shot at winning the MVP despite how well they may play at their given position, Chris Johnson will not win the MVP award either.

Which brings me to Peyton Manning.

He finished second in the NFL is passing (4,500), second in touchdown passes (33), second in completion percentage (68.8), and sixth in quarterback rating (99.9).

Statistically, Drew Brees seems to be the logical selection.

He led the league in touchdown passes (34) and quarterback rating (109.6) while setting an NFL record with a completion percentage of 70.6.

The fact that his Saints dropped their final three games (two of which Brees was active for) will likely be held against him.

Their final loss of the season had nothing to do with Brees but that might not be relevant to a number of voter who simply remember the 0-3 finish.

His back-ups losing instead of winning is bound to have some impact on Brees’ chances regardless of the lack of logic.

As I said before, it doesn’t make a difference whether the losing games (or bad games) came at the beginning or end of the season because this is not the MVP of December award.

In this case, it’s more a matter of how impressive Manning has been than it is a matter of Brees not being impressive enough.

Manning’s Colts ranked 32nd in the NFL (dead last) in rushing compared to the Saints who ranked sixth.

That is a monumental difference in terms of support.

When your running-game becomes non-existent, it forces your quarterback to play under far more pressure because defenses know that they need to throw the football to have any reasonable chance of winning.

Yet despite being backed by the league’s least productive rushing-attack, Manning was able to become the most productive quarterback in the league.

Had he been given the opportunity to play the entire season (even if Brees played his final game), it would be fair to assume that Manning would have led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns.

His cameo appearances in the Colts final two games skew his per-game averages to the point in which they are not logically applicable to the discussion.

The trade-off between Manning and Brees comes down to interceptions (Manning’s 16 to Brees’ 11) but those figures were severely impacted by level of rushing support.

Defenses that played the Saints feared both the pass and the run.

When defenses played the Colts, it became all about protecting against the pass and that leads to interceptions.

Just ask Drew Brees.

He threw 17 interceptions in 2008 while being backed by a rushing attack far more productive than the Colts had this year.

What makes Manning’s 2009 season all the more impressive is who he has been throwing to.

People will be quick to say that he had Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, and they’d be right regarding Wayne.

But with Clark, we’re talking about a player who averaged 43 reception for 513 yards and five touchdowns per-season prior to this year.

Yet people talk about it as though he has been a Pro Bowl caliber receiver.

Manning was paired with one such target (Reggie Wayne) and a tight end who has only recently developed into an exceptionally productive target.

Manning lost his starting receiver in Anthony Gonzalez yet still managed to turn two late-round draft picks (Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie) into productive targets.

Over the course of doing so, he led the Colts to an undefeated record.

I’d mention Manning’s NFL-record seven fourth quarter comebacks but something makes me hesitant to do so.

The Colts should have played better during the first three quarters of those games, and while while I don’t put too much stock in the heroics of these “clutch” moments, they should be recognized because the Colts wouldn’t have likely been in those kinds of situations if it wasn’t for an atrocious running-game to begin with, yet Manning still managed to prevent his team from losing each and every week.

Remove Brees, Favre, and Rivers from their clubs and I’d imagine they’d still be winning teams.

Not nearly the same threats mind you, but good teams loaded with talent never the less.

Take Peyton Manning away from the Colts and…well…we see the Colts of weeks 16 and 17.

Think about this for a moment.

The Colts had seven fourth quarter comebacks in 2009.

Remove Manning from the team and do you honestly think they would have had an opportunity to win any of those seven games?

That’s provided that Jim Sorgi or Curtis Painter produced at Manning’s level for the first three quarters of all those games (which clearly isn’t logical).

You can then add another seven “L’s” to accompany the two that Curtis Painter’s Colts earned.

That brings the Colts to a 7-9 record under the absolute best of circumstances.

There is simply no player as valuable to his team as Manning is to the Colts.

You cannot ignore his knowledge of the playbook, his mastery of the audible, his desire to work with the younger talent to help them develop, none of these things you get to nearly to the same extent with another quarterback under center in Indianapolis.

The fact that he managed to still be so productive and remain undefeated while being backed by horrendous rushing support and a very young receiving corps speaks volumes.

That to me, more than warrants an NFL-record fourth league MVP award.

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NFL 2009 Week 17 Wrap-Up

Finally, after the last game of the season, the playoff field is set. A lot of players have a lot to prove in the second season and some started proving it in Week 17 with stellar performances.

Buffalo (6-10) def. Indianapolis (14-2), 30-7: Most expected Indy to rest their starters and Buffalo took advantage in administering this beatdown.

However, it bothered me that Indy’s starters were basically in just to get Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark to 100 catches, yet Bill Polian said the organization didn’t feel like the undefeated season was a “historic achievement.” That’s ridiculous by itself, but it’s made even worse by the fact that they obviously think 100 catches is more important.

Cleveland (5-11) def. Jacksonville (7-9), 23-17: The Cleveland Browns ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak.

The Cleveland Browns ended the season on a four-game winning streak.

I still can’t wrap my head around that.

Dallas (11-5) def. Philadelphia (11-5), 24-0: I didn’t see this coming at all. Dallas dominated throughout the entire game, making it look easy at times. Tony Romo continues to prove doubters wrong and the defense was great. Philly will have to fix a lot of things if they’re going to beat Dallas on Saturday.

Chicago (7-9) def. Detroit (2-14), 37-23: As with most games last weekend that had no impact on the playoffs, this game was fairly uneventful. Jay Cutler played well, but it was too little and far too late.

San Francisco (8-8) def. St. Louis (1-15), 28-6: For a little while, it looked like the Rams might play themselves out of the first pick of the draft. Then the real Rams showed up and order was restored.

Pittsburgh (9-7) def. Miami (7-9), 30-24: This game was almost a microcosm of the Steelers’ season. They built up a big lead and then almost let it evaporate. They got the win, but it wasn’t enough as Baltimore would eliminate them three hours later.

Minnesota (12-4) def. New York Giants (8-8), 44-7: Pathetic, pathetic performance by the Giants. The Vikings had their way with them and never let up. This is exactly how Minnesota needed to go into the playoffs after a shaky December.

Atlanta (9-7) def. Tampa Bay (3-13), 20-10: This game had no impact on the playoffs, but it was historic because it gave the Falcons their second straight winning season, a first in the franchise’s history. A team playing hard with nothing to play for? Other teams can learn from them.

Carolina (8-8) def. New Orleans (13-3), 23-10: Speaking of teams with nothing to play for playing hard, Carolina has quietly rebounded from their bad start. They should think about at least letting Matt Moore compete for the starting quarterback job this summer.

New Orleans is looking pretty bad right now. Yes, they played their reserves, but going into the playoffs (especially with a bye) on a three-game losing streak is not ideal.

Houston (9-7) def. New England (10-6), 34-27: First of all, I love how the Pats played this game. Yes, the Wes Welker injury is horrible, but that could’ve happened anywhere. They got a good amount of work in for the starters and got Brian Hoyer, who actually played very well, and some other reserves into the game.

When New England took a 14-point lead, it looked like the Texans were going to choke again. However, they came up big and, if only for a few hours, kept their playoff hopes alive. They will be very dangerous next season.

Kansas City (4-12) def. Denver (8-8), 44-24: This was pretty much all about Jamaal Charles shredding Denver’s defense in what should have been a much closer game than it was. This loss also cemented another Denver collapse.

Baltimore (9-7) def. Oakland (5-11), 21-13: For a while, Oakland was giving hope to Pittsburgh and Houston. Baltimore was never able to deliver the knockout shot to the Raiders (excluding this from Willis McGahee), letting them hang on until the end.

Green Bay (11-5) def. Arizona (10-6), 33-7: Obviously, this will be a different game in the playoffs with Kurt Warner playing, but this game was all Packers. However, they need to get healthy before the game.

San Diego (13-3) def. Washington (4-12), 23-20: Even against San Diego’s reserves, the ‘Skins couldn’t get the job done. Mike Shanahan has a lot of work ahead of him.

Tennessee (8-8) def. Seattle (5-11), 17-13: Getting to 2,000 yards in one season is a great accomplishment for Chris Johnson. Although he didn’t pass Eric Dickerson, he did pass the great Marshall Faulk for most yards from the line of scrimmage in a season. I’d say that’s a pretty good day at the office.

New York Jets (9-7) def. Cincinnati (10-6), 37-0: I don’t know how much anyone can take out of this game going into the rematch, but it’s definitely not meaningless. Cincy, once an offensive power, set offensive football back about six decades. The Jets feasted on them all game long.

Top 12 Teams (Last week’s ranking)

1. San Diego Chargers (1): No team enters the playoffs hotter than the Chargers. They are probably the favorites to win it all. Next week: N/A
2. Indianapolis Colts (2): There is no reason to drop them after they took it easy in Buffalo. Next week: N/A
3. Dallas Cowboys (4): They’ve looked great in their last three games. They will be a tough out. Next week: vs. Philadelphia (11-5)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3): They looked pretty pathetic in Dallas, but one bad performance shouldn’t undo the string of very good ones before it. Next week: at Dallas (11-5)
5. Minnesota Vikings (7): The dominating performance they put on was exactly the way they needed to go into their bye after all of December’s drama and bad play. Next week: N/A
6. New Orleans Saints (5): Has a No. 1 seed ever looked more vulnerable than the Saints do? Next week: N/A
7. Arizona Cardinals (6): They really shouldn’t have dropped a spot, but I’m not sure they can beat New Orleans or Minnesota on the road. Next week: vs. Green Bay (11-5)
8. Green Bay Packers (9): They have been pretty dominant over the last month or so. Nobody wants to play them right now. Next week: at Cardinals (10-6)
9. New England Patriots (8): I loved how they played in Houston, but the Wes Welker injury is crippling to their Super Bowl chances. Next week: vs. Baltimore (9-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (10): Cincy wanted a primetime game all year to prove doubters wrong. After their first one, they’ve got more doubters than ever. Next week: vs. New York Jets (9-7)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (11): Bad play-calling and fourth quarter collapses killed them all season long and they have no one to blame for missing the playoffs but themselves. Next week: N/A
12. Tennessee Titans (12): I see no reason to drop them after a win and more specifically after the way they played in the second half of the season. Next week: N/A

The end of the regular season is usually a depressing time for fans, but at least we don’t have to sit through anymore AFC and NFC West games! I’ll have my playoff picks up sometime before the end of the week.

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Is This NFL Playoffs the Year of the Wild Card?

Thanks to the NFL’s playoff format, with the top two seeds getting a bye in the first round, it is not uncommon for a wild-card team to advance deep into January.

Last year’s playoffs saw a 50-50 split with Philadelphia and Baltimore (No. 6 seeds) advancing. In 2007, the Giants and Jaguars also earned wild-card teams a .500 record.

This season, however, might just be the first year for all wild-card teams to advance.  No divisional team (especially within the third and fourth seeds) appears dominant at this point in the year, and several of the wild-card teams have a momentum advantage over their division-winning matchups.

As the wild-card team “most likely to succeed”, Green Bay faces an Arizona team that has been Jekyll and Hyde all year. Green Bay is possibly the most dangerous team in the NFC with New Orleans and Minnesota both showing cracks in the armor across the final quarter of the season.

The Packers boast the NFC’s top defense (and are the only top-five defense in the NFC) along with a powerful passing game led by Aaron Rodgers. Arizona has proven to be up for a challenge before, dominating Minnesota on both sides of the ball in Week 13, but overall they have a softer defense (20th overall) and a limited running game.

If Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald don’t have another transcendent playoffs, this team could easily bow out to a hot Packers team that has only lost one game across the entire second half of the year. That lone loss came by only one point to a resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers that could easily have made the playoffs had they sharpened their game a week earlier.

The Eagles have a slightly more daunting task as the NFC’s other wild-card game. The Dallas Cowboys swept Philly in the regular season and are riding a three-game winning streak entering into the playoffs.

Aside from momentum, what Dallas also has is pressure, having not won a playoff game since 1996. With obtrusive owner Jerry Jones eager to remind Cowboys players of their duty, this team could easily enter the playoffs tight and nervous. Philadelphia will have to strike early to get Dallas thinking of their troublesome history late in the year.

The Eagles are also looking to avenge the Week 17 drubbing that allowed Dallas to overtake them to win the division. Until that point, the Eagles had been the NFC East leader and were not thinking of themselves as a wild-card team at all. 

Andy Reid’s team has given McNabb the most offensive weapons he has ever had to work with, and the Eagles have spent much of the year as a trendy pick to upset Minnesota or New Orleans in the NFC Championship.

In the AFC, neither wild-card team put up the impressive 11-5 records of the NFC wild-cards, but both have momentum on their side going up against the third and fourth seeds—the Patriots and Bengals, respectively

New York fares as the most likely of the two AFC wild-card teams to see some postseason success. They hold the playoff tested formula of a strong running game and superior defense (first in the NFL by almost 30 yards per game). The weakness of rookie Mark Sanchez—and his 20 interceptions—is tempered by the playoff opponent they’ll face on Saturday.

Cincinnati comes into the playoffs playing its worst football of the year. A 7-2 start has cooled to a 10-6 overall record that included three losses in its last four games. It mimics New York in its physical defense and strong running game, but falls short of the Jets on both fronts.

The one chief advantage of Cincinnati, veteran quarterbacking from Carson Palmer, will be limited by a slowed Chad Johnson (injured but likely to play) and the tragic loss of deep threat wideout Chris Henry. Palmer has a strong past resumé, but essentially put up game manager numbers (barely over 3,000 yards in a pass-happy year) this season. 

If New York’s top ranked pass defense can keep the Bengals one dimensional, then the Jets should be able to come out of Cincinnati with an upset. If Week 17’s 37-0 drubbing was any indicator, the Jets should be able to handle the Bengals in the playoffs.

The final wild-card matchup is quite interesting. In Week 16, this would have weighed much stronger in New England’s favor. The Baltimore Ravens hold the sixth seed, but have not established any particular momentum entering the playoffs (winning against a 5-11 Raiders team in the season finale after falling to Pittsburgh the week before).

The Ravens, however, boast consistency, having not been dominant in any one area but playing the run game strong (both fifth in rushing offense and defense), while putting up respectable numbers in the passing game.

Their one defensive liability, defending the pass, will be helped considerably by the unexpected self-destruction of Wes Welker’s leg. This injury changes the entire dynamic of a Patriots offense that burned teams underneath and across the middle with Welker’s fearless receiving out of the slot.

New England is battle-tested and helmed by one of the best clutch players in Tom Brady, but also has to be disheartened by the loss of Welker, and nervous about an underwhelming defense that had been one of the Patriots’ greatest assets. 

The NFL has always prided itself on the ability for “anything can happen on any given Sunday” across the years.  This year could easily prove to be a prime example of this, where little really separates the four wild-card teams from their division-winning counterparts. 

With chinks in each division champ’s armor, it would not be at all surprising for all four of these wild-card teams to make it out of the opening round of the playoffs, and potentially drive all the way to a Super Bowl. The 2009 NFL season may just prove to be the “Year of the Wild Card.”

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2009 NFL Season: Week 17

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