NFL Playoffs: Worst to First, Ranking the 12 Quarterbacks Left Standing

In any number of ways, this past decade could rightfully be called the decade of the passer.

In 2009, this is especially true. Now, passing success has always been a large indicator of a team’s success, but it seems that having an elite quarterback is the hallmark of every playoff team still alive.

It seems a given that having an elite player at such a key position would be a fast track to the playoffs, but you could argue that the league’s best running back, cornerback, inside linebacker, defensive tackle, wide receiver and left tackle are all sitting home right now.

(For posterity’s sake that list would be Chris Johnson, Nnamdi Asamugha, Patrick Willis, Albert Haynesworth, Andre Johnson and Joe Thomas, in my humblest opinion, though Darrelle Revis is just as good as Asamugha)

Contrast that with the fact that the only elite quarterbacks not in the playoffs are Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, and it’s obvious: the NFL is a quarterback-driven league.

With that, let’s rank the 2009 playoff quarterbacks from worst to first, based on their current level of play and what we can expect to see from them in the playoffs.

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Mike Shanahan and Jim Zorn: The NFL Coaching Merry-Go-Round Continues

With Mike Shanahan seemingly closing in on a deal to take over the coaching reins in Washington, D.C., hearts are breaking in upstate New York.

But having lived in D.C. the past three years, I can tell you it’s a familiar feeling for Washington.

The excitement when Zorn was hired wasn’t what you’d call palpable, but it was real.

Redskins fans I knew said they’d have a guy who could provide some much-needed creativity and stability—and a young quarterback—to a franchise that hadn’t seen much of either in recent years.

Now two years later, Jim Zorn is looked upon as a failure in D.C. for two sins that were largely out of his control: failing to pierce one of the toughest divisions in football and not being able to turn Jason Campbell into the elite quarterback he’s capable of being.

At least Zorn isn’t alone on the unemployment line. Across the league several coaches and coordinators are polishing up their resumes, whether they’ve been fired yet or not.

Watching the Shanahan news break, a co-worker quipped about Zorn: “Well, he’ll not get hired anywhere in the NFL again.”

And yet, that’s probably exactly what will happen. Jim Zorn will likely have to work his way back up through the ranks, never having been a head coach before his time in Washington. But he’ll probably get another shot in a league that loves to recycle its people.

Head coaches in the NFL survive largely on the basis of perception. Wade Phillips won the NFC East and has guided the development of Tony Romo to elite status. And yet, you still have the feeling that anything less than an NFC championship could see him out the door if Bill Cowher’s on the line.

Chargers coach Norv Turner looked to be a sure bet to lose his job by midseason before his team decided to rattle off 11 straight wins en route to becoming, once again, the sexy Super Bowl pick.

This is before we even get to the coaches who didn’t help their teams win division titles this season.

In truth the NFL is a closed fraternity. Of the coaches fired last season, most don’t stray too far from the game. Eric Mangini went to the Browns, Mike Shanahan is now back in the running for the Washington gig (reportedly after receiving a hefty sum to not coach this year), Rod Marinelli is the defensive line coach of the Chicago Bears, Herm Edwards is an ESPN analyst, Tony Dungy walked away voluntarily, Jon Gruden was on Monday Night Football. The list goes on and on.

Of all the head coaches who were fired after the 2008 season, only Romeo Crennel looks to be completely out of football for the moment—although even now it looks as though he may have a chance to become a defensive coach (and possibly coordinator) with the New York Giants.

But is this good for the NFL?

Obviously hiring former head coaches is no guarantee of success.

Several teams have then experimented with their hires in recent seasons, bringing in guys with no head coaching experience, trying to plumb the depths of the college game, or going after candidates who were not even coordinators previously.

Raheem Morris, Tom Cable, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary, and Jim Mora were all brought in as head coaches during the 2009 offseason (or in the middle of the 2008 season) with no previous NFL head coaching or coordinating experience.

Other than Jim Caldwell, none really saw a great deal of success this season, although with only a season under their belts, it may be too early to make any real judgements on their abilities.

Still, one has to wonder if one year is enough time to really get a hold on the NFL game; to implement a system and find success, especially when candidates are largely asked to learn on the job.

In many ways, some of these guys may be better off as coordinators. Two perfect examples are Cam Cameron and Mike Nolan. Both were very good in their previous stints as coordinators and, after finding little success as head coaches, have moved back to their previous job.

Cam Cameron has put together a nice offense in Baltimore despite having a rookie quarterback who struggled diagnosing the blitz last season. Mike Nolan put together a defense that was quite able despite being saddled with veterans who, physically, weren’t at their peaks in 2009.

It’s a refreshing sign to see guys working at a capacity that suits their talents better, but even these are most likely pit stops for Nolan and Cameron until head coaching jobs open up in the next couple of seasons.

Remember this is a league where Mike Shanahan—a coach with two Super Bowls to his name— is championed as the savior of D.C. just two years after being removed for sliding performance in Denver.

This isn’t to say Mike Shanahan isn’t an effective football coach. He’s very good. But the simple fact remains that the league is always evolving in play while continually looking backwards for coaching.

The truth for Nolan and Cameron is that, as coordinators, they have little control over their futures with their current clubs. If John Harbaugh or Josh McDaniels get the axe, there’s no guarantee either coordinator would remain on staff.

So take heart, Jim Zorn. At least the likely hiring of your replacement shows there’s always a place for former head coaches with an NFL franchise on their resume.

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Wes Welker’s Knee and Patriots Playoff Hopes Have One Thing in Common

They’re shredded.

I’m not saying the Patriots can’t win the playoffs, but to do so would be a feat on par with what the 2007 Giants pulled off during their improbable run to the title.

Now, this is not a knee-jerk reaction (tell me you saw that one coming).

This is a simple fact: the Patriots, already on shaky ground to begin with entering the playoffs, now have to attempt to outscore teams without their most potent weapon.

This is for one reason and one reason only: blitz protection.

The Patriots do not have an offensive line that is so talented that it can swallow up extra pass rushers. Not many teams in the NFL do.

Most offensive lines live with the fact that if a team brings more than six rushers, there’s going to be one free guy. In an 11-on-11 sport, that means there’s an open receiver that the quarterback has to find and hit before he gets pancaked.

Teams can disguise coverages, they can use a running back or tight end to block, but generally it comes down to five or six trying to block six or seven, and it’s up to the quarterback to hit his hot read.

Wes Welker was that hot read.

Brady can get rid of the ball extremely quickly, but the issue now is that teams can blitz Brady on any and all passing downs and know that, even if Brady finds Julian Edelman, they’re going to get a nice big hit on a guy with, reportedly, three broken ribs and a broken ring finger.

Now, Belichick vehemently disputed the report today, going so far as to truly level Charlie Casserly’s reputation when asked about Brady’s ribs. The Providence Journal’s Shalise Manza Young confirmed the report, though ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his source put Brady’s broken ring finger as his biggest worry.

It’s impossible to truly know, although if Brady’s got broken ribs and the Patriots aren’t saying, that’s a big league issue. For the purposes here, we’ll just assume the ring finger is broken, and he’s banged up regardless.

Still, Baltimore’s gameplan will most likely look an awful lot like what former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan brought out in week two when the Patriots were in a similar situation: Brady looking shaky and playing hurt, the offensive line without key personnel, and no Wes Welker.

The Jets responded by doing what they’ve done most of this year. They brought bags of pressure, extra blitzers, and survived on man coverage against New England’s receiving corps.

The Ravens don’t have a Darrelle Revis to play shutdown corner on Randy Moss, but the Patriots also don’t have a potent second weapon to make the Ravens think twice about Ed Reed staying in Randy Moss’ back pocket all game.

It all comes down to what the Patriots can do without Welker. Edelman is a reasonable facsimile of the little slot man, and the yardage will certainly be there for him. The issue is whether or not those yards come in key situations, when the Ravens bring a third down blitz and the first down is what matters.

Edelman was productive against Houston and in his first start against the Jets, but productivity alone won’t be enough. He needs to get those yards at the right time for New England to succeed and keep his quarterback on his feet.

Long story short: the Ravens are going to try and hit Brady, and hard.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Baltimore will walk away from Gillette Stadium with a victory, mind you. The issue here is that Brady will take a pounding on Sunday, win or lose.

The key to the Patriots going anywhere in the playoffs will rely entirely on their ability to keep the Ravens on their back foot.

They’re going to have to pull all the old tricks out of the bag: bubble and tight end screens, short slant routes, a lot of draw and delay run plays, and try and run the ball until the play action becomes an effective way to get Randy Moss the ball in space.

If they can do that, they can move the ball on this Ravens team, at a penalty. Depending on how serious the injuries to Brady are, he may wake up on Monday morning wishing they were staying home for the winter.

The key to the New England offense will end up being the success of their run game and their ability to utilize their tight ends.

Over the past few weeks, they’ve done that much more than in the past, working in more power running sets and passing out of two tight end formations.

They’ve also gotten the ball to their tight end much more in 2009 than in the previous two seasons. Benjamin Watson had just 22 receptions and two touchdowns in 14 games in 2008, yet managed 29 receptions for five touchdowns in just 12 games this season.

On top of that, New England has gotten the ball to veteran Chris Baker—an offseason acquisition who is a better blocker, though not quite as athletic, as Watson—on 14 pass plays this year, with two going for touchdowns.

But most important for this New England team may be their young defense. Brady can’t hang in there and keep getting hit, not if he’s carrying as many injuries as he seems to be.

Even though the offensive line is deeper than it seemed to be at the beginning of the year, it’s unlikely you’ll see the air-it-out four wide receiver sets too frequently this postseason.

It will be up to the young defenders like Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, and the more veteran guys like Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden to patch together a playoff run where they can’t expect to outscore every team 34-30.

With Welker likely out for the playoffs, Edelman perhaps not ready to be the same type of weapon, and Brady’s injury secret out, that may be their only chance in a playoff pool filled with great offensive teams.

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Peyton Manning And Colts Last To Lose: Is Perfection Really Worth It?

In many ways, it’s all the Dolphins’ fault.

It’s the Dolphins—those pesky, perfect Dolphins—who maintain their hold on the national consciousness every year and deprive great teams of the rightful place at the top of the heap.

It’s those champagne-soaked Dolphins that have skewed the perspective of fans league-wide as to what constitutes a “perfect” season for the better part of four decades.

Is it winning all your games? Is it winning the Super Bowl? What is perfection really worth when you can win 18 straight and lose the one that matters?

Every year it’s the same thing: Team X goes on a run to begin the year, stretching their perfection into December, and every year they lose it as the bogey of perfection finally pulls them down.

Utter tripe.

The Colts will go into the record books, in all likelihood, with only a one or two in the loss column. But does that make them any less of a great football team?

The 1985 Bears crushed all comers in the playoffs, embarrassing team after team of professional football players who didn’t belong on the same planet as them.

Their defense was ferocious, their offense nearly unstoppable (they had three games all year where they finished with less than 300 yards of total offense). They had six games where they got five or more turnovers, including six in the Super Bowl. 

They were undone by one special performance by one of the all time greats, on Monday Night Football.

If it weren’t for Dan Marino playing one of his best games of all time, the idea of a perfect regular season would be demoted to an interesting statistic rather than the main December talking point each year.

It’s all a rather meaningless hiccup in the percentages, anyway.

The 1972 Dolphins were really no better that year than they were in 1973. They were no better than the Bears in 1985 or the Patriots in 2007 or the Colts or Saints in 2009.

They were among the greatest. Among.

How many casual fans can name a single player not named Csonka on that 1972 team for what they did in 1972 and not what they said in 2007?

I don’t want to discredit the 1972 Dolphins. That would be impossible. But they shouldn’t be famous simply because of the fact that they didn’t lose. They won the Super Bowl in true style and did so again in 1973.

They were back-to-back champions. They were the first Super Bowl team to sport the 3-4 as their base defense. They are one of the greatest exemplars of the power running game yet seen.

Perfect in the NFL isn’t winning all your regular season games. It’s winning all your playoff games. Ask any player if they’d rather be the 2007 Giants or the 2007 Patriots.

That the Colts players and coaches won 14 1/2 games this year, clinched a bye in the playoffs, the inside track to a Super Bowl title, an MVP for their quarterback, and then were booed by their own fans because they had the audacity to commit the sin of perspective is among the more ridiculous things I’ve heard this season.

That the Colts didn’t pursue perfection at all costs should applauded, rather than booed. That some fans can still be so short-sighted when such a fitting parable of what chasing tough wins against playoff-hungry teams late in the season can do to your Super Bowl chances is so readily available is remarkable.

The New England Patriots went at the New York Giants in the final week of 2007 and pulled out a tough win. The Giants didn’t push hard for the victory, and they didn’t pull out all the stops.

They kept a lot in the playbook; they studied, and they waited. In the Super Bowl, they out-schemed the Patriots en route to their eventual upset victory. This wasn’t an aberration, this was football. The Patriots let the idea of being the perfect team go to their head and lost everything when it mattered.

In truth, the Colts are not a perfect football team. Neither were those Patriots and neither were the Bears or Dolphins before them.

They’re young, they have holes, and they have injury issues. This is a team that has won some very lucky games. They’re only fifth in points scored and only fifth in points allowed. Their expected win-loss, according to Pro Football Reference, was just 10.5-3.5 after 14 games.

This is a team that should be glad to be rid of the weight of perfection, and can now use the next few weeks to great advantage as they prepare for the playoffs.

I say rest ’em all next week, perfection be damned.

At least you know Buffalo fans won’t be booing.

 

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NFL Playoff Scenarios: With NFC Teams All But Set, Who’s Primed For The Big Run?

This is a breakdown of the NFC Playoff picture, for a look at the AFC and which teams are in the best shape to grab the two Wild Card berths, see here .

With one strip sack, DeMarcus Ware finally laid bare what has been a startlingly obvious truth over the past month: the Saints aren’t going to just blow everyone out en route to the Super Bowl.

Despite the upheaval the Cowboys’ victory will cause to our perception of New Orleans, there is little chance that the NFC playoff picture will change much in the final two weeks.

Four teams have already clinched playoff berths, with all but the NFC East title decided as Dallas and Philadelphia still have one final Week 17 showdown to play.

While that game will have a great deal to do with which team gets the wild card and which wins the division, between Philadelphia, Dallas, and Green Bay in the NFC North, the six playoff teams seem all but decided.

Still, what isn’t decided is how the playoff matchups will play out, and how each team will fare as the regular season crescendos into playoff football.

Let’s look at each of the possible playoff teams and, going a little bit deeper than simple statistics, investigate how each team matches up with their opposite numbers.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are perhaps the hottest team in the NFC right now, winners of five straight since losing at San Diego and Dallas in back to back games at the beginning of November.

The Eagles are the absolute epitome of a “big play” team. Their fortunes often turn on a single play, for good and bad.

That ability is not without its drawbacks, however. Their top corner, Asante Samuel, has eight interceptions on the year, but quite frequently is beaten over the top.

According to Pro Football Focus he’s had four touchdowns thrown to men he’s covering, allowing a 14 yard average and missing an indefensible 17 tackles, by far the most of any cornerback who plays as much as he does.

I don’t mean to just rain on Asante Samuel. He’s a good cornerback and this is what his game is. He’s got some of the best instincts in the game for sniffing out routes and he’s not afraid to gamble. That makes him valuable. Interceptions at crucial moments win football games in a way that an extra pass defensed or made tackle simply won’t.

On offense, DeSean Jackson is a revelation, a receiver who seems to only score on pass plays of 50 yards or more. Unfortunately, like Samuel, Jackson’s worst trait is also his best: he only seems to score on pass plays of 50 yards or more.

Again, he’s by no means a bad receiver, but he struggles in close coverage. When he’s able to get behind a defense he’s almost uncatchable, but it’s telling that Jason Avant and Brent Celek are, far and away, the preferred targets in tight situations (inside the opponent’s 10, 20, and on third down).

Obviously, part of this is teams clamping down on Jackson in key areas and it shows Philadelphia’s depth, but if Philadelphia comes up against a team like New Orleans who have the safety talent to match Jackson downfield, will they be as successful moving the football?

That’s the question they need to ask of themselves and their opponents in the coming weeks.

Dallas Cowboys

If you want to do a study of momentum in football, the Dallas Cowboys are certainly a team you’ll want to investigate closely in the next two weeks.

The Cowboys are scrutanized perhaps even more closely than the New York teams and now a few unfortunte December games gone awry has turned into a full-blown trend of winter collapses.

How then do we explain their unseating of the NFC’s top team this past weekend, right when they should be prostrating themselves before a conference full of teams not hampered by such obvious curses?

Of course, this narrative has nothing to do with a football team that has finally found its offensive stride and, now healthy, looked to be operating at full-bore against New Orleans, especially on defense.

Their four sacks of the previous un-sackable Drew Brees only put an exclamation mark on their remonstration of the belief that for some reason losing games in Decembers past somehow makes it more difficult to win them in Decembers present.

I’m still holding out judgement on the Cowboys until I see their final week matchup with Philadelphia. Their secondary is an area of concern, especially with half the playoff quarterbacks checking in with QB ratings over 100 this season.

But when you have a guy like DeMarcus Ware on your side and a quarterback with the raw ability of Tony Romo, it’s impossible to count you out of any game.

Arizona Cardinals

I’m going to say it pretty plainly: I don’t see this team winning in the playoffs.

While that may be a bit rash given the fact that this is the same team that got bushwhacked by the Patriots to close out last year and was a toe’s length away from winning the Super Bowl, I just don’t see them matching up with the other elite NFC playoff teams.

At 9-5 they’ve cakewalked through a division that presented little challenge. Their only truly quality win came against the Vikings in Week 13.

I’m not saying you should completely overlook the Cardinals. You don’t beat the Vikings without playing well, and they did that. But beyond that, they are maddeningly inconsistent, and seem intent on breaking every logical “rule” we have about football.

They’re just 3-3 at home and 3-2 in their division, hardly the best mark when you play in the NFC West.

Passing on third down they’re middle of the road in conversion rate and are absolutely the worst in the league in running for first down on third and short.

On defense they began the year very brightly, especially regarding their run defense. They didn’t allow a strong rushing performance from anybody until DeAngelo Williams went and had himself a day in Week 10, going for 158 yards. Since then they’ve allowed an opposing player at least 115 yards in five of their last seven games. 

Their passing game in the red zone is good, and they have a number of quality weapons in that regard.  However, beyond Fitzgerald’s solid performance and Beanie Wells looking to have a future if he can learn how to pass block, they’re unremarkable in so many ways on offense and defense right now that it’s tough for me to see a way for this team to make it through the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

Like the Cowboys, the Packers look to be a sure bet to take one of the two Wild Card positions in the NFC.

Despite losing to the Steelers after taking a fourth-quarter lead, the Packers are not dissimilar from the other NFC playoff teams. Like Minnesota, Dallas, and Philadelphia they have a high-octane passing offense capable of the big play paired with a solid rushing attack, decent pass rush, and somewhat limited defensive secondary.

The book on the Packers has been their supposed inability to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet.

Yet watching the TV feed on Rodgers, its clear that the major issue—him holding the ball too long—has largely been remedied.

In the first ten games this year the Packers surrendered 41 sacks, including 14 in two games against the Vikings.

In their past five games they’ve given up a grand total of eight sacks, an obvious marked improvement.

Rodgers was good in those first ten games but he’s been spectacular since then, excepting only a tough matchup against Chicago on the road two weeks ago in which the Packers leaned heavily on Ryan Grant to get the job done.

In my opinion the Packers are the absolute dark horse in these playoffs. They’ve won seven of their last ten after starting 2-2, including a tough loss to Pittsburgh this weekend.

They’ve proven they can win in just about any condition and their ability to move the ball on the ground.

On third down and in the red zone they are at their best, with Aaron Rodgers actually having the second best percentage of third down rushes resulting in first downs (11 for 15 on the season) and Grant scoring from inside the three at a higher rate than anyone else (five out of six attempts were touchdowns).

The ascendancy of young tight end Jermichael Finley, a physical beast, gives them another weapon to use in tight.

The only drawback to this Packers team is that they seem built to win outdoors—in a year that half the playoff teams play in domed stadiums.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are a very interesting team to watch. Quite simply, I don’t remember ever seeing Brett Favre play this well this decade.

He’s effective on short down, he’s effective on long ones. He’s absolutely phenomenal inside the red zone and he simply doesn’t let his mistakes get to him. 

As such he’s put together a season that, while not as spectacular as Drew Brees’, is still very good.

Combine that with the talents of Adrian Peterson, who I’m pretty sure is capable of just about anything and is a real wildcard in the NFC playoffs, and the Vikings are a plain old tough team to beat.

Where they really have to shine if they’re going to get through a thick crowd of talented NFC teams is on defense, however.

We all know of their dominant defensive line, but in the secondary they need to improve to match the imposing passing offenses of Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, and Arizona.

The NFL is a passing league, more than anything else, and the ability to play your playoff games inside a dome is a double-edged sword. As much as the Vikings will benefit from letting Brett Favre play in a climate-controlled dome, their opponents will also be able to run their offense with a greater efficiency.

The Vikings’ defensive line is extraordinarily dominant, sacking the passer more than any other team in the league (43 times this season). Despite this, they’ve given up 44 passing plays of 20 yards or more, nine of over 40 yards, and are allowing opposing quarterbacks an average rating of 92.6.

These aren’t the worst marks in the league, but they’re not exceptional by any stretch. The real key for the Vikings may be the return of cornerback Antoine Winfield.

I don’t want to place too much burden on one name, but Winfield has already made a half dozen huge plays since returning from injury and his ability to match up physically with the toughest pass-catchers in the league will give Minnesota more bite in the secondary.

If that gives their great pass rush another half a beat to get to the quarterback, that might be enough defensively to keep the Vikings ahead of their opponents.

New Orleans Saints

The “Big Daddy” of the NFC right now, the New Orleans Saints have, wire-to-wire, looked to be the premier team in the NFC as they’ve put together a stunning 13-1 turnaround campaign that has lifted the city that needed it most.

They’ve done it by succeeding in all facets of the game. They’ve played stunning offensive football both in terms of spreading the ball out and playing a hard-nosed running style.

Defensively they’ve built on a foundation that has been around for a few years with keen offseason additions that have given them a roster that is deep and talented and able to match up well against many different types of offense.

The problem is that defense still frequently gets beaten. It doesn’t tend to make much of a difference as the game is usually well in hand when the opposition begins scoring, but the Saints have given up 90 points more than any other team in the NFC.

That’s not a minor detail. If they are slow out of the gate on offense in the playoffs, it won’t take much for any of the talented offenses around to dig a nice, deep hole for the Saints to try and climb out of.

Like nearly every other team that has managed to amass such an impressive record, it hasn’t been done entirely with 40 points blowouts. Like the Colts, New Orleans has had to work for many of its wins.

Their offense sputtered against the Jets and Broncos, their defense struggled to keep up with several of their opponents, and they’ve looked increasingly beatable in the last three weeks (of course culminating with them actually being beaten by the Cowboys in the Superdome).

Even at their “worst,” the Saints are a difficult matchup for any team. Their offense is not reliant on one or two players, but a host of receiving options that challenges any defense to keep up with each on every play.

Their offensive line is extraordinarily successful as well, though they’re doing it largely with players you wouldn’t associate with protecting the premier quarterback in the league.

Their primary left tackle is Jermon Bushrod, a fourth round pick from the 2007 draft, who would struggle playing in front of a quarterback who didn’t get the ball out quite so fast, but works in New Orleans’ system. At right tackle they’ve got the exceptional Jon Stinchcomb, who has performed as well as any at the position in the league this year.

Where this line really shines is in the interior, however. Their guard combination of Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks has simply dominated the interior of nearly every defensive line they’ve faced so far, both when running and passing the ball. 

With such a strong base on the offensive line, Drew Brees’ comfort with the offensive system and quick release, and their ability to spread defenses out to ensure they have at least one free receiver on most plays, it’s no wonder the Saints are difficult to stop on offense.

Such a combination means they’ve allowed only nineteen sacks all year, one of the best marks in the league, with Drew Brees posting dominant numbers in nearly every offensive category.

Back in Week 11, Drew Brees was asked about his team’s performance after a 38-7 shellacking of the Buccaneers in Tampa. He said at the time they hadn’t “peaked” as a team yet.

Well the following week, they did just that, destroying the New England Patriots in absolutely every way, forcing Bill Belichick to essentially concede the match with plenty of time left on the clock.

Unfortunately the other side of the peak is inevitably a downslope, as they’ve played worse and worse each week since then. Their offense was lucky, if effective, against the Redskins and, if not for a stellar performance by the New Orleans offensive line holding Washington a single sack, they would’ve lost their first game that week instead of against Dallas this past weekend.

Brees racked up more than 400 yards of passing in that game but was unable to finish off drives or move the ball on third down. They didn’t get their second real offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter, having to rely on Robert Meachem turning an interception into a touchdown the other way.

The Cowboys, like the Redskins, pushed the Saints hardest on third down, which seems to be the key to unseating New Orleans this season.

Playoff prediction:

The Saints seem to be the clear favorite heading into the playoffs with their ability to make plays on both sides of the ball coupling with their sheer efficiency in every aspect of the game.

If you’re going to beat the Saints it has to be done on third down; they have too many weapons to shut them down in coverage and the offensive line is too good and Brees too quick to shut off the supply consistently.

If you follow the blueprint that has been most effective the last month, the Redskins and Cowboys were most successful when they brought pressure on third down, especially in the red zone.

Brees, while dominant in many categories, is merely “very good” when his team gets in the red zone or passes on third down. He’s ninth in the league in completion percentage inside the opponent’s 20, yet first in big plays over 25 yards.

The team that beats the Saints will have to have an elite pass rusher who can bring pressure in those tight situations, contain their passing game by employing effective safety help over the top, and take advantage of the precious few mistakes the Saints will make.

If you can hold the Saints to field goals early, understand that you will get cut by the big play but make sure to keep the Saints playing in front of you, and shut them down when they rush on third down, then this is a beatable team.

Unfortunately they’re just less beatable than every other team in the NFC and, with the monkey of a perfect season off their back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them torch their final two division games and ride high into the playoffs.

From there, all bets may be off. You can definitely score on this Saints team, especially if you’re the Cowboys, Packers, or Vikings.

The question is, will that be enough?

I guess we’ll find out.

 

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NFL Playoff Scenarios: Ravens, Broncos Lead Crowded AFC Wild Card Race

One of the truths you have to accept when you write about a sport like the NFL is just how ephemeral our conclusions can be.

For instance, this was written in total seriousness less than a month ago:

“There’s plenty of head-scratching going on over the sudden collapse of the Broncos, but when the team is 25th in points per game, 19th in passing offense, and just 16th in rushing offense, not to mention allowing 117 points in four games against the Redskins, Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers, it’s safe to say things aren’t turning around anytime soon.

The Broncos don’t have an impossible run down the stretch, but with games against the Giants, at the Colts, and at Philadelphia left to play, don’t expect any Lazarus jokes this season.”

Way to go, me.

Of course, Denver responded by rattling off two straight victories over the Giants and Chiefs, giving up a combined 19 points, and then nearly beat the Colts on the back of a 200 yard receiving day by Brandon Marshall.

Needless to say, egg on my face. Luckily for me they, like the Steelers, have attacked their own playoff ambitions with a ruthlessness only a von Clausewitz could love, losing to Oakland 20-19 yesterday.

Yet here we are, with two weeks to play, and the Broncos not only still have a shot at the playoffs despite the loss to the Raiders, but actually have the inside track with their 8-6 record.

Denver and Baltimore (also 8-6) are the current leaders for the two AFC Wild Card spots, but they just highlight what is an incredibly crowded group that includes six teams sitting at 7-7 just waiting for the Ravens or Broncos to slip up.

Let’s look at each’s playoff candidacy and see who has the best chance to sneak in under the wire.

 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made the playoff picture very interesting on Sunday, with Chad Henne throwing an overtime interception against the Titans that, once again, proved Vince Young might be the luckiest man of all time.

But what makes the Dolphins so intriguing is not their young, developing quarterback but one of the most overlooked players at his position this decade: Ricky Williams.

Six years after posting his last complete season, in which he ran for over 1300 yards, Williams is just 25 yards shy of breaking the 1,000 yard mark.

Our brains’ odd fascination with round numbers aside, he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry, the best of his career.

Williams is a subject for another day, but he has maybe the youngest legs any elite running back has ever had at his age. He’s still only 32, so if you allow that he hasn’t undergone the usual battering that elite running backs suffer, he may still have several more years ahead of him if he changes his mind about retiring.

Even with Ricky running as well as he ever has, the Dolphins have a tough road to the playoffs. Their final two games are against the Texans and Steelers, who are both also 7-7 and fighting for their playoff lives.

 

New York Jets

As tough as the Dolphins have it in their final two games, the Jets are really in for a treat with games against the Colts and Bengals left for the final two weeks.

With the Colts now the only team left without a defeat on their record, I’m not expecting them to suddenly go and bench their starters until the game is decided.

You don’t want to be the coach that gets Manning or Wayne injured with such a clear run to the Super Bowl on the line, but three weeks is a long time to keep your stars on the sideline before the playoffs even begin.

Maybe it’s the fact that I’ve got Peyton Manning leading the way for my fantasy team, the Tecmo Bowl Bo Jesuses, but I’m hoping they go after history, if only to make the Brady/Manning debate infinitely more interesting.

Still, even if the Colts don’t sit Manning, the Jets have shown a resiliency you don’t usually associate with teams employing a rookie head coach and quarterback. After starting brightly this season they lost six out of seven games and looked dead in the water.

Then they went and rattled off three straight wins over Carolina, at Buffalo, and at Tampa Bay before tripping up to Atlanta this past weekend.

Truthfully, they’re not a half-bad football team at 7-7. Still, it looks like it’s going to take nine wins to get into the playoffs and it’s going to be a tough road to beat both the Bengals and Colts, especially when they’re already behind the Dolphins due to head-to-head losses.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Can anyone figure out the Steelers? Anyone? Bueller?

This really is getting ridiculous. Can they just decide if they’re a cursed, Super Bowl hangover team or if they’re just an unlucky, injury-prone team that is capable of beating anyone on their day?

They just capped off a five-game losing streak by having their recently-concussed quarterback toss for over 500 yards, knocking off one of the sneakier talented teams in the league 37-36.

Of course before that five-game skid they won five in a row, handing the undefeated Vikings their first loss of the season.

The Steelers now have to take on the Dolphins (discussed above) and the Ravens in their final two games.

They better have that league-best run defense revved up because it’s going to take one hell of an effort in that regard for the Steelers to get to the necessary nine wins.

Unfortunately they’ll have to rely on just about every other playoff bubble team in the league going to pot because even if Pittsburgh knocks off the Ravens next week, their division record will still be a pedestrian 2-4.

The only saving grace they may have is if Denver beats Philadelphia and loses to Kansas City, Pittsburgh’s head-to-head win over the Broncos will put them into the playoffs.

If Denver goes the other way and loses to Philly but beats Kansas City, the Broncos’ 7-5 division record will give them a great shot of taking the last wild card spot.

Either way, the Steelers no longer have their destiny in their own hands.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Other than the Broncos and Ravens at 8-6, the Jaguars are actually the most likely team to get into the playoffs, shockingly enough.

Despite being outscored by 56 points this season, the Jaguars have just about every tiebreaker necessary to get them in over any other team in the conference.

Within their division they have a 3-1 head-to-head record among themselves, the Titans, and Texans while, if they win their last two games, they’d finish up with an 8-4 conference record, enough to put them over any of the other potential 9-7 clubs who they might be tied with.

The only team that has a tiebreaker over Jacksonville is Miami, because of the Dolphins’ victory in week 14. Still, their ace in the hole might just be that conference record which, because of a lack of any head-to-head matchup, actually gives them the leg up on Baltimore and the Broncos if either or both team falters in the last stretch.

Let’s face it, that’s not exactly outside the realm of possibility.

The big hiccup in that scenario is that in order to get to that superior 8-4 conference record they have to win their final two games against New England and Cleveland–both on the road.

 

Tennessee Titans

For all the reasons I just wrote about, the Titans and Texans are in it pretty deep against the rest of the conference in the hunt to lock down the wild card spots in the playoffs.

The Titans have a 2-2 record against the Texans and Jaguars on the season (and are just 2-4 in the conference as a whole), meaning they’d have to finish with a better record than the Jaguars to get in. They also were on the losing end of that overtime season opener from so long ago, putting them behind the Steelers as well.

They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami after this weekend, but a lot of chips have to fell Tennessee’s way to get them back into the playoffs.

Still, after beginning the season 0-6, the Titans did all of us who called them “the most talented team without a win” a big favor by proving us right.

They’re still a pretty talented team, but their lucky rabbit’s foot has to be Vince Young, who is now 7-1 in his return as a starting quarterback.

It hasn’t been pretty by any stretch, but Vince Young has grown by leaps and bounds since his first bout as a starter.

While he owned a winning record in those first two seasons, going 17-11 as a starter, he always relied too heavily on his athleticism. It always seemed that he was resisting the gameplan, swimming against the current and not trusting the system around him.

I’ve always been of the opinion that quarterbacks can get by on their own only so much. Football is a team game. It relies on systems. It’s why coaching can have such a dramatic impact on the success of a team.

Again, this is my opinion, but the ability of a quarterback to truly learn a system, to pair what the system can do with his own abilities, is what allows great quarterbacks to be great quarterbacks.

Michael Lombardi, I believe, made this point somewhat in a podcast with Bill Simmons not too long ago, discussing the career arcs of Peyton Manning, who has been in basically the same system his entire career, and that of Jason Campbell who has shown flashes of quality but has had a new offensive system almost every year of his career dating back to college.

In his return to the field, you can sense Young trusting the system more and his abilities less. He performs his checkdowns, his footwork has been greatly improved, and he keeps his eyes downfield on his receivers. 

He still runs well and can make plays with his feet, but he’s shown, to me at least, that his ceiling as a quarterback is maybe higher than we once thought.

This season may be lost for the Titans, unless their run of luck continues unabated, but their future looks brighter than it did a year ago.

 

Houston Texans

I’m including the Texans here mostly out of courtesy. They’re 7-7 of course, but with two games remaining against the Dolphins and Patriots, a pitiful 1-5 division record, and their only quality win of the season coming against the Bengals, their playoff hopes are basically null.

The Texans are actually a good team, to be fair. You don’t win seven games in the NFL without being somewhat okay at this tackle football thing.

The problem is the Texans just haven’t been good enough. At some point, you have to figure their growing talent base will result in a solid 11-5 season.

In all likelihood, it just won’t be under Gary Kubiak.

Prediction

So how is all this going to shake out?

Obviously the Ravens are in the driver’s seat going forward as they sit at 8-6 with games against the Steelers and Raiders left. The way they’re playing I think they have the best shot going forward to win out and claim one spot.

After that, I don’t have the foggiest who is going to pull into that last spot. With so many games left between teams still fighting for playoff spots, there’s just too many moving parts to really pin down with any certainty what will happen.

Denver, as I wrote at the beginning of the article, are in the lead. But with a loss to the Raiders to chew on all week and nothing but hungry teams in the rearview mirror, I’m not hitching my wagon to the Broncos just yet.

No matter what, if you’re a neutral it’s going to be an exciting two weeks.

If you’re a football fan in Denver, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, New York, Houston, Tennessee, or Jacksonville, however, then congratulations on the impending ulcer.

 

 

 

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All Flights Grounded: The Most Feared Defensive Backs in the NFL

One of the toughest positions in the NFL is that of the defensive back. Your failures are magnified and, barring the infrequent big play or big hit, your successes are forgotten.

The NFL is a star-driven league and those roles are usually preserved for the guys moving the ball down the field. But if you’re a wide receiver or a tight end in the NFL and you find yourself lining up across from one of these guys, you’re in for a long day.

Receivers and tight ends are physical freaks. Monsters with nearly seven foot wingspans, incredible vertical leaps, and 40 times that would make a Ferrari blush. Defensive backs, not so much.

Usually small, sprite guys who rely more on fluid hips, great instincts, and the desire to put make the big play when called upon, corners have their work cut out for them. Safeties pack a little more wallop, and they’re included here, but make no mistake that when you’re talking about stopping the most physically gifted guys in the league, it’s the defensive backs who turn solid gains into game-changing plays. These are the five who are the best at it, right now.

There are a few notable exclusions and there are a host of guys who are certainly close to entering this group, but these five, to my eyes, stand apart.

(Note: Just so we’re clear, this is on the five best defensive backs for 2009. Some guys have had bad years or have been injured and, subsequently, aren’t on the list. Don’t yell at me because your favorite player is the best safety on injured reserve.)

Begin Slideshow

The Randy Moss Conundrum: His Old Back or Back to His Old Ways?

Anybody who believes in the old football axiom that winning cures everything clearly didn’t see the performance of the New England Patriots on Sunday.

It’s rare to see a team so dysfunctional on offense in the first half turn around and still win the game despite not getting a phenomenal game from some of its star players.

Most obvious among those players was Randy Moss who, if you believe the media firestorm that has erupted today and last night, obliterated any good will he had in New England by turning in a performance that has been described in words that are anything but complimentary.

Others in the media even went so far as to trot out the old guard of ex-receivers to talk about Randy’s history of dogging it in games.

Now, let me just put this right out there: I don’t know what’s going on with Randy Moss. Neither does anybody else. He looks slow. He looks frustrated.

There’s maybe a half dozen guys who know what’s up with Randy, whether it’s a lack of effort, a lack of preparation, some outside distraction or, infinitely more likely, an injury.

But let me make this clear: Jerry Rice and Chris Carter and Drew Bennett and others who fed the media frenzy today? They’re probably not in that group.

Let’s just look at the facts: plain and simple, Randy Moss has not been playing well. That’s the extent of what we are absolutely positive on. Randy Moss has not been productive.

And that’s the rub, really. The problem with the New England Patriots is not one of philosophy and it’s not a matter of Randy Moss needing to “try harder” like his buddy Welker.

Moss needs to simply catch more passes thrown his way and make plays so New England can win on Sunday.

The “effort” thing has dogged Moss for a long time, straight into New England now. The thing is, Randy Moss never looks like he’s trying hard. Yet there he is, second all-time in receiving touchdowns (144 career), looking like he’s coasting downfield.

People rarely appreciate just how productive Moss has been until you look closely at the numbers. This isn’t some washed-up receiver hanging on for a few more years. 

He’s 32 years old. Compare that to T.O., who is just behind him in touchdowns and yet is four years older. That Moss has already eclipsed the career of every receiver that came before him except for one is surely not lost on some of his detractors.

He looked this way in 2007, he looked this way in 2002, he looks that way now. He never looks like he’s trying hard. The only difference is now he’s not catching the ball when it is thrown at him.

Wes Welker? He’s a mile-a-minute burner who doesn’t possess the natural abilities of Randy Moss, he has to try hard. But even he, like Moss, doesn’t seem to be pushing himself.

Excepting his outburst during a great second half drive in which he caught five passes and pumped up the crowd and his team, Welker’s usually not the type to wear his emotion on his sleeve.

What I’m getting at is that gauging effort based on how a guy “looks” is ridiculous.

Watching the game on Sunday the effort thing didn’t cross my mind. What crossed my mind is that Moss looks hurt and he looks frustrated. He looks like something is biting at him every time he moves.

This is what I don’t understand: Moss is being killed for a “lack of effort” on several plays because that’s “what he’s always done when he’s not getting the ball.”

Except on every one of those plays, Moss was getting the ball. Yes, he doesn’t always sprint through routes where he’s not designed to get the ball, whether that’s by design or simply his way. But when has Moss been known to not give full effort when the ball’s coming his way? Why is that suddenly the book on Moss? Because Chris Gamble says so?

What I saw was a guy who comes out of breaks slow likely because of a back injury that is well-documented that was so bad earlier in the year he was widely lauded for playing through it by his teammates and the coaching staff. Guys don’t get that kind of praise unless it was bad and everyone knew it. It’s football; everyone plays hurt, especially at this time of year.

He looks like a guy that when he jumps to catch a ball probably has a sharp pain somewhere that makes it awfully distracting when trying to catch footballs in traffic.

He looks hurt. I don’t think, in his three years in New England, I’ve seen more than a half dozen balls bounce off his hands like the one he lost on Sunday. So now he just won’t catch the ball because he doesn’t care?

Furthermore, Moss has been on the injury report nearly every single week this season with either a back or a shoulder. On weeks he wasn’t listed with an injury he was given Wednesday off for “non-injury” related reason.

Anyone buying that one from Belichick, the injury report wizard? He couldn’t possibly be giving Moss a free pass on the first contact day of the week because Randy’s got a nagging injury that he doesn’t think he technically has to list?

As someone who has injured his back before I can tell you that it is absolutely no cakewalk. I did it at 18 playing basketball and there were days I’d tweak it the wrong way and couldn’t walk. It’s not an injury that heals overnight.

Now I don’t know any specifics, here. Nobody in the New England locker room is feeding me info on Moss being injured. Nobody’s giving me photos of clandestine cortisone shots.

But that’s the key: nobody else is getting any inside info either. It’s just rampant  speculation. Moss left without talking to reporters after the game and he’s not going to cry injury at this point in the year.

All we know is what we saw on Sunday and what we’re hearing from Belichick and Brady who, instead of giving the “it it what it is” routine, are going out of their way to call Moss one of the best players on the team.

If Randy truly is dogging it then he should be benched. If he’s not going to be productive and he’s not going to at least try to work his way out of it, Belichick should bench him.

The idea purported by SI’s Peter King that Belichick learned from Bill Parcells that you have to baby some guys and be hard on others is bull-hockey. So now Bill Parcells babied Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn? The guys he publicly called out in the media for being divas and not being tough enough?

I’m not buying it. I’ll give you that Parcells gave a wider birth to star guys like Lawrence Taylor, but if Taylor wasn’t producing and wasn’t trying, Parcells would’ve benched LT, too.

So why is Bill then going out of his way to support a guy that is being creamed in the media and, ostensibly, seems to care little?

He’s not going to come out and say “Randy is injured, he’s got a bad back,” because that’s just going to make teams go after the injury. If it doesn’t require treatment and it won’t hold him back in practice from participation then Belichick doesn’t have to list him.

Per a USA Today article on the subject of the injury report:

“Brady, when discussing the Patriots’ injury reports, says Belichick doesn’t “give away a lot of information and talk about injuries and everything that everyone probably wants to know, but … that’s for the players. He protects us because he wants us to have the best advantage every single week.”

I’m not going to sit here and just give Moss a blanket defense. The guy’s not producing and in the NFL, especially when you’re a star player getting star money, that’s the real cardinal sin.

The real truth here is that, even if Moss isn’t “trying hard” anymore, it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t. What matters is production. They need him to be producing on the field.

This is a team that is built around their ability to generate the big play and Moss is the only guy who can consistently create that play in tough coverage. When he can’t do that, they’re going to lose.

But the dime store psychology sessions need to end. Nobody but Randy, the training staff, and the coaches know what is truly wrong with Moss.

If it’s an effort thing then he needs to fix that but I’m not buying. So he let a ball bounce off his hands after running a route because he’s not trying hard? Because he didn’t want to be bothered to run any further? He let a pass go by him and get intercepted because he thought he wasn’t getting the ball? Please. If Belichick was so concerned about not offending Moss why would he send him home on Wednesday for being less than ten minutes late? None of these theories hold water.

As I said, I don’t know anything more than they do, but I’m willing to admit that. What my eyes see is a guy who is slow out of breaks and has lost a great deal of explosiveness because the back he injured earlier in the season is still bothering him.

Could it be lack of effort? Of course, but I don’t see it. Moss just looks like a guy who isn’t hurt enough to sit out, isn’t going to complain about being injured on a team filled with them, is too hurt to produce like normal, and is too important in a tight play-off race to simply bench until healthy.

That’s the real Randy Moss Conundrum, and that’s what he has to overcome.

 

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Is It Time To Write Off The Patriots In AFC East?

With the decade drawing to a close, there’s already been thousands of column inches dedicated to the ultimately meaningless question of (cue dramatic music) Team of the Decade.

Chief among those candidates, based on their sudden transformation from afterthought to dynasty, was the New England Patriots.

Yet, looking at the New England Patriots team that has taken the field this year, especially on the road in the second half, you’d be forgiven for thinking the last 10 years simply never happened.

Remember for a moment, that this was a Patriots dynasty built on everyone doing the little things, making the big play when necessary, and not making mistakes. They were rarely the most dominant or most talented team, but they simply refrained from shooting themselves in the foot, often winning by simply getting the right call at the right time. 

But while the Patriots gave away games with a frequency usually reserved for comets and Black Swans earlier in the decade, they’ve done so in nearly every one of their five losses this season.

So while the question of the decade is perhaps meaningless, far more paramount to the rooting interests of those here in New England is the question of whether the Patriots have any chance of competing for another Super Bowl title this season.

In truth, the Patriots are much the same squad that decimated the Titans and Buccaneers. They’re the same squad that put up an early lead against the Colts and they’re the same squad that, not too long ago, was still in the hunt for a first-round bye and a short run to the title game.

In fact, in many ways they’re a better team than they were a few weeks ago. In one major way, in fact: they’re healthier.

With Sammy Morris and Jarvis Green seeing a more normal workload again, the Patriots were able to add depth at two key areas where health has been a question all season.

While, like most teams, they have been slowly whittled away by injuries all season, they have yet to truly lose any of their key people for the year to injury and are still relatively healthy.

But if the problem with New England is not a matter of depth, then what? Anybody with two eyes and the grace of television can see not all is right in the state of Foxboro.

It’s not a matter of preparation, either. These are not teams finding a chink in the armor of the Patriots, exploiting some miniscule facet of the defense that New England cannot protect against; this is not the Miami Wildcat Game, part two.

No, in fact, the Patriots have said after each of the last two weeks that they saw little, if anything, that they did not fully expect the Saints and Dolphins to run.

And yet, New England sits at 7-5, their lead in the AFC East precarious and hopes of a first-round bye gone quicker than warm December air.

The problem with New England is far simpler than many writers think, to my eyes. It’s not a matter of a half decade of poor drafts, it’s not Bill Belichick suddenly forgetting how to coach, or the karma of Spygate finally catching up with Bill’s legacy.

It’s simply a matter of execution. Players not making plays, coaches not making adjustments.

The proof is in the box score. The Patriots have been simply unable to make adjustments at halftime and in the second half, to react and stop what opposing teams are doing.

Worse still, other teams have been able to make adjustments at key moments to stop the Patriots.

You can highlight many areas where New England has struggled—on third down, in the secondary, in rushing the passer—but perhaps key among them are the offense’s inability to get into the end zone when they get inside the 20.

The Miami game hung on just that deficiency as Vontae Davis finally got the best of Randy Moss when it mattered, making the play that allowed the Dolphins to really confirm the Patriots are going to need some serious work in the final four weeks of the year if they’re going anywhere in the playoffs.

It was a highlight in poor clock management and play-calling as Tom Brady looked to be trying to make some last minute audible, had to rush his routine, and throw an off balance shot to Moss’ back shoulder that neither seemed prepared for at that moment.

Worse, it was exactly what the Dolphins were prepared for as Davis cheated up on Moss and would’ve been perfectly out of position for a fade that Brady didn’t have time to dial up.

Unimaginative was the only word that came to mind when I saw the play. With all three timeouts at their disposal and clearly on the wrong page, I never expected anything but a timeout and maybe a frustrated chin-strap removal from Brady.

Yet there he went, having so little time that he had to make that little two-stamp with his left foot in about .000042 seconds.

I just don’t understand the offensive philosophy of New England right now. In the red zone their offense has been practically unstoppable when they man up and run the ball.

In the last four weeks, seven of their 10 touchdowns in the red zone have come from running the ball.

That’s not even counting the red zone touchdown Maroney gave up by fumbling against the Colts and that’s including two red zone passing scores against the Colts.

So for those keeping track at home, that’s one red zone touchdown via the pass in the last three weeks compared to five on the ground.

The big play has returned to New England, as was evidenced by not one, but two long touchdown passes against the Dolphins, but the finer points of execution, especially on critical plays, have abandoned the Patriots.

Not to mitigate the weight of my own article, but while New England has lost three of the last four, they’ve done so against two teams that are 12-0 and the Dolphins, a .500 team better than their record, even without their top rusher.

At least now there’s no confusing what New England has to do in the last month of the year: win out, build some sort of momentum, get to 11 wins, and hope it’s enough for a first round bye.

Failing that, the road back to the Super Bowl may become impossibly steep for a New England team that seems to stumble at every rock in the road lately.

 

 

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Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, and The Best Rookies of 2009

In the NFL more than just about any other sport, the draft can make or break a franchise. Rookies in the league are required to learn on the job and, right from the beginning, are expected to contribute.

The draft is about talent and thinking toward the future, but with more and more money riding on draft picks, there’s pressure right away to perform. As has been seen again and again, sometimes that pressure gets to young players.

In a meritocracy like the NFL, few players get a free ride. Even though the top drafted players are already collecting a king’s ransom, many have already begun earning their keep with stellar performances this year.

With that, let’s look at the ten rookies making the most of their rookie campaigns and how important they have been to their teams.

Percy Harvin, WR/KR, Minnesota Vikings

Harvin has been as good as advertised in his first year in Minnesota. The kid just makes plays for his team.

He likely already has the rookie of the year award sewn up, barring a stunning final month from some of the other candidates, but it’s worth going into what he’s done so far.

Through 11 games he already has 693 yards from scrimmage, third among rookies. You can also add to that his 924 return yards, giving him the most aggregate yards of any rookie.

But more than just racking up real estate, he’s already managed seven touchdowns (five receiving, two on returns) with nearly 30 yards per return on average, tops in the league, also giving him the league lead for yards per touch.

All told, Harvin is just an offensive machine. He’s a big play waiting to happen. He’s not the best receiver or the best kick returner in the league, but his combination of talent and penchant for making a big play whenever needed makes him the no-question answer for rookie of the year, currently.

Brian Orakpo, OLB/DE, Washington Redskins

The way Harvin makes big plays on offense, Orakpo does on defense. He broke the rookie franchise sack record in Washington by the second week of November and keeps getting better.

He’s already got seven sacks on the year to go along with six QB hits and eight pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.com. (They also credit him with nine sacks, but he officially has seven.)

He’s managed that despite only rushing the passer on 212 snaps.

Sure, playing next to Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter will get you some pretty sweet matchups when you’re rushing the passer, but Orakpo is not a dog off his leash.

He’s a much more versatile player and his coverage skills, while still developing, have allowed the Redskins to use him in pass coverage on another 132 snaps.

You win as a rookie by being versatile and stepping in to help your team wherever possible. Orakpo has done that and has a bright future ahead of him because of it.

Jairus Byrd, S, Buffalo Bills

There are easy ways to get noticed as a rookie in the NFL. One of them is to tie for the league lead in interceptions in your first year.

Byrd’s done that, tying with New Orleans’ Darren Sharper with eight picks. Even more impressive? He’s done that in just 519 snaps, 132 less than Sharper.

He doesn’t provide the all-around safety skills that Sharper does, as he’s used mostly in a coverage role, but he’s not asked to do those things in Buffalo’s defense.

Byrd’s got a bright, bright future ahead of him. He plays with a lot of talent in the Bills secondary, but he’s carved himself out a nice niche despite that.

Not bad for the 42nd pick in the draft.

As I said before he’ll have to develop some of the more all-around skills a safety needs beyond ball hawking, but if there’s any rookie that can lay claim to being “the next Ed Reed” it’s Byrd.

Michael Oher, T, Baltimore Ravens

While Oher has gotten plenty of publicity for his tortuous life path that has led him to the NFL, it’s the work he’s put in during his first year that has impressed me the most.

Oher has started every game in his rookie year for the Ravens, helping man the edge of one of the best run-blocking units in the league. He’s a big, bruising, nasty player and is a pleasure to watch.

Simply put, he’s one of the best right tackles in the league already. His sheer athleticism and raw technique make him a perfect fit for the position.

He was drafted as high as he was because of his possible future as a franchise left tackle, but with Jared Gaither still in Baltimore he has some time to wait.

Still, he’s already filled in admirably guarding the blind side in the two games Gaither was injured against Cincinnatti and Minnesota as the Ravens gave up just five sacks in those two games.

Clearly, he’s got a big future ahead of him.

Sebastian Vollmer, LT, New England Patriots

When Matt Light went down with a knee injury in the fourth quarter of what would eventually be a loss to Denver, New England’s season seemed to be going down the toilet.

It’s not often that a team already having protection issues can lose its Pro Bowl left tackle and find an immediate replacement in the form of a late second rounder who didn’t even start playing football until he was 14.

Yet from the time Vollmer stepped into the limelight, he’s been a revelation, to the point that many in New England are questioning whether Matt Light, who has at times looked lost against the best pass rushers in the league, should even get his starting job back.

Vollmer was lucky enough to be eased into the league with early starts against the Buccaneers and Titans but when faced with Joey Porter of the Dolphins and the Colts’ Dwight Freeney, he stepped up to the challenge, holding both sackless.

He’s been given help in the form of tight ends and chip blocks from New England running backs, as Michael Oher has in Baltimore, but even when left on his own, he’s been as good as one could possibly hope.

With left tackle one of the premier positions in the sport, it’s a miracle he slipped as far as he did. That New England traded out of the No. 23 spot with Michael Oher still on the board is somewhat less unforgivable because of Vollmer’s performance.

Brian Cushing, OLB, Houston Texans

Pick a USC linebacker, any linebacker was the mantra going into this year’s draft and with Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, and Cushing all looking like first-round picks, it was clear why.

Maualuga had perhaps the most hype despite his injury, Matthews would ultimately beat him off the board, but it’s Cushing who has had the best rookie year of the trio.

He’s been outstanding this year, winning AFC defensive player of the week twice. He’s a leading candidate for defensive rookie of the year and has done everything the Texans have asked of him.

Like some of the other names on this list, he plays among a talented group that has allowed him to shine by taking some pressure off him, but he’s performed very, very well in nearly every game.

He’s second on the team in tackles, sacks, and stops according to Pro Football Focus. With all the talent around him, even on a team that doesn’t play great team defense, that’s amazing.

He’s a workhorse, too, playing in 687 defensive snaps, second on the team behind only DeMeco Ryans.

He was the second linebacker taken in the draft but with all he’s done for the Texans this year and how bright his future looks, he’s earned every penny of his rookie money.

So that’s the list. There are others, of course. Knowshon Moreno and LeSean McCoy certainly deserve an honorable mention (though they’re lagging behind last year’s rookie runners), but this group has distinguished itself as some of the best rookie players this year.

One of the common themes, as I touched on briefly above, is the fact that these guys have had considerable help and play on, for the most part, very talented teams. It’s part of the curse of being drafted high; when you go to a bad team, opposing teams can gameplan to stop you. 

I think that, for the most part, there are more talented rookies who, for one reason or another, haven’t stepped up to the level of these players yet. Part of it’s opportunity, part of it is the natural development that being a rookie requires, but for 2009, these guys deserve the notice they’ve gotten.

Got a favorite or think I missed someone? Feel free to shout it out in the comments or shoot me a message here .

 

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