2009 Buffalo Bills Offense Preview

2009 Buffalo Bills Offense Preview: After years of futility, the Bills are looking to the past in order to move their offense into the future.

 

By SaviorEdwards

 

The old adage “Defense wins championships” is still very true in the 21st century NFL. But “Offense wins games” and “Offense sells tickets” is also still true.

 

Obviously the latter two are more important in regards to the current state of the Buffalo Bills. If they don’t have the offense to win enough games in the regular season to position themselves for a playoff birth, the former is irrelevant.

 

For the greater part of this decade the Buffalo Bills’ offense has been put on the PUP. Not the ‘Physically Unable to Perform’ list, but the “Pathetic, Unbearable, and Predictable” list.

 

In fact, those are just a few of the many words that come to mind when describing the Buffalo Bills offense, which has been ranked 25th or worse in each of the last six years.

 

And ironically, the coaching staff in Buffalo (who can also be described by the same words) has opted to make bold and unprecedented changes in 2009 by retooling the entire offensive line. They signed one of the greatest (and most controversial) wide receivers to ever play the game and implemented a fast-paced, no-huddle attack. Their actions will no doubt bring a smile of hope to fans of the early ’90s super bowl teams still yearning for a return to greatness.

 

So, for this piece I’ve decided to look at the projected 2009 Bills’ offensive depth chart and figure out if enough changes were made to finally get back to the playoffs. I will use a 1–10 grading scale in evaluating each position:

 

1-3: Terrible, 3rd string at best
4: Below Average
5: Average
6-7: Above Average
8-9: Pro Bowl Caliber
10: Elite (Top 5 at position)

Also, if I have a back up graded higher than a starter, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s better than the starter. It just means he’s a very good backup with potential and could start for the Bills or another team.

 

 

Quarterback

 

Projected Depth Chart: Trent Edwards (starter), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gibram Hamden

 

Individual Analysis

 

Trent Edwards: Grade 8/10

Make no mistake about it, the 2009 season will be determined by one player. My grade is purely based on the expectation that Edwards will progress in 2009 as the leader of this offense and solidify himself as a franchise QB for the Bills.

 

He also must silence the critics regarding his durability and stay healthy for a 16+ game season in 2009. If you’ve followed his progression, you really have to like what you’ve seen from Edwards in just two NFL seasons.

 

He’s clearly made significant strides in several key metrics last year, including completion percentage, QB rating, and yards per attempt. His most recent stats put him among the league leaders last year. He’s been given the keys to the brand new convertible, and I expect a pro bowl caliber season from him in 2009.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Grade 5/10

Despite the early negative reads from our new back up QB, Fitzpatrick did show some promise when he stepped into the starting lineup for the Bengals last year and led that mess of a team to some late season wins.

 

Regardless, I’m not sure he’s the right fit for what Buffalo is trying to accomplish in 2009. We’ll know a lot more in a few weeks, once camp is well under way, and hopefully he’ll be able to handle more than just mop up duty.

 

Gibram Hamden: Grade 3/10

Hamden is nothing more than a third string journeyman whose career highlight was having an MVP season in the now defunct NFL Europe league. He’s good friends with Edwards, but other than that, he brings no added value to this team.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s cut this summer, especially if Fitzpatrick fails to inspire confidence among the coaching staff, and they need to bring in another body. However, I’m told that he’s very popular with female Bills’ fans in certain circles.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 8/10

 

Expectations:

The starting QB is expected to play 16 games, so the rating has to reflect his. But if Trent does get hurt again, there will be little to no confidence in Fitzpatrick or Hamden to carry the load for an extended period of time.

 

Signing John Kitna or Byron Leftwich would have been a shrewd move, but we are going to have to live with the current QB depth chart unless a surprise move is made via trade or FA signing. Brian Griese has to be on Buffalo’s radar if it is considering other veteran options this summer.

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Projected Depth Chart: Lee Evans (starter), Terrell Owens (starter), Josh Reed, Steve Johnson, James Hardy, Roscoe Parrish

 

Individual Analysis

 

Terrell ‘TO’ Owens: Grade: 9/10

You know the name, and you know the MO of TO. And he was definitely the biggest free agent addition in Buffalo since Drew Bledsoe. He may no longer be the best wide receiver in the NFL, but even at age 35, he’s more than capable of being a game changer.

 

The real benefit he brings to the table is opening things up for the rest of this offense. I still have to pinch myself sometimes as I try to come to grips with the reality that TO is a Buffalo Bill.

 

Thank you Jerry Jones, this definitely makes up for the Losman trade a few years back.

 

Lee Evans: Grade 8/10

His supporters will certainly try to blame the multiple QB’s, offensive coordinators, and lack of talent around him for the reasons that Evans hasn’t been able to put up huge numbers thus far. But if Evans is truly a bona fide No. 1 NFL wide receiver, we will find out once and for all in 2009.

 

I do give him the benefit of the doubt and tend to believe that is the case. I also think he’ll break through and have a career year in terms of receptions, receiving yards and most importantly, TD receptions in 2009.

 

Josh Reed: Grade 7/10

Reed has proven to be Trent’s go to guy and could be one of the better No. 3 WR/Slots in the NFL in 2009. And even though he’s been given multiple opportunities over the course of his career, he just isn’t good enough to carry the load as a No. 2 WR.

 

If there is one player that has significant trade value, it’s Reed. But hopefully he sticks around as a major contributor to this offense as we gear up for a playoff run.

 

Roscoe Parrish: Grade 5/10

As a punt returner he’s among the best in the NFL, but as a pure wide receiver he’s average at best. Parrish and his fan club have complained he’s been underutilized from day one. If that’s truly the case, then he should have a few chances per game to make plays.

 

In the end, he just doesn’t have the size or skill set to be anything more than a role player, and that’s probably the reason we weren’t able to trade him for a decent draft pick when he was reportedly on the block this offseason.

 

Steve Johnson: Grade 7/10

If all the hype coming out of OBD is accurate, then Steve Johnson might be the most dangerous WR out of the entire group this season. His rookie numbers weren’t eye-popping, but he could be a steal if he lives up to billing and takes a quantum leap this summer. And if he does look good in preseason, it’s going to be awfully hard keeping him off the field despite the loaded depth chart.  

 

James Hardy: Grade 3/10

It’s boom or bust with this kid. And after one year, he is certainly not a boom. He is recovering from injury and buried on the depth chart, so we still might not know what we have until 2010, at the earliest.

 

If he’s activated for any games this year, I hope he will be a good red zone option.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 9/10

 

Expectations:

The complete body of work is very intimidating on paper. With two legit No. 1 WRs, everybody else could flourish as opposing defenses scramble for ways to contain TO and Evans as they dictate coverage. One thing I do know: if an NFL offense can dictate coverage, then it is going to win games.

 

If the offensive line can be average at worse (or at least no worse than last year), and Trent stays healthy, then this unit has the potential to be a top three NFL receiving corps in 2009.

 

There also appears to be more than enough depth to sustain production if one of the top dogs misses a few games due to injury.

 

Side note: Look for Justin Jenkins to make the team as the No. 6 WR to open the season if Hardy goes on the PUP.

 

 

Running Back/Fullback

 

Projected Depth Chart: Marshawn Lynch (starter), Fred Jackson, Dominick Rhodes, Corey McIntyre

 

Individual Analysis

 

Marshawn Lynch: Grade: 8/10

Lynch is no Adrian Peterson, but he’s definitely one of the better backs to enter the league in the last few years.He has a tremendous upside if he can keep his nose clean and avoid another off-the-field incident this year.

 

He’s missed a few games each year to injury and will miss a few more this year because of suspension. However, he still might have a career year when you consider that the amount of eight man fronts this team faces should decrease exponentially in 2009.

 

Fred Jackson: Grade 8/10

If Jackson gets off to a hot start during Lynch’s suspension, then it might just force the coaching staffs’ hand in terms of who gets the bulk of the carries in 2009. But no matter what, he is going to see a lot of action on the field as a RB or receiver.

 

Jackson is definitely a poor man’s Brian Westbrook, but nobody in Buffalo is complaining about that, considering how far this kid has come.

 

Dominick Rhodes: Grade 7/10

The addition of Rhodes was an under-the-radar signing, but he brings a lot to the table. His playoff/championship experience, great blocking skills, and familiarity with a fast-paced offense, as well as all the years he played with Manning and company in Indianapolis should make him a definite asset.

 

He has a lot of tread on the tires, but he’s still very capable of starting.

 

Corey McIntyre: Grade 5/10

We probably will keep four RBs, but I’m still not sure if McIntyre is a lock yet. He might be in trouble if Xavier Omon is a beast this summer.

 

If McIntyre does stick, it will be strictly for special team purposes. He likely won’t see any playing time or carries in the regular season if we are running the no huddle and spread packages a majority of the time.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 8/10

 

Expectations:

With the addition of Rhodes, the Bills boast one of the deepest backfields in the NFL as they head into their 2009 campaign. There might not be a true superstar here, but all three can run, all three can block, and all three can catch.

 

Look for a lot of two back sets, which should create match up nightmares for defensive coordinators, once Lynch returns from suspension. If we aren’t going to be a pass first offense in 2009, I could see both Lynch and Jackson having 1000 yard rushing seasons.

 

Hopefully the no huddle will feature a lot of screens because all three will do some serious damage if our blocking holds up.

 

 

Tight End

 

Projected Depth Chart: Derek Fine (starter), Shawn Nelson, Derek Schouman

 

Individual Analysis

 

Derek Fine: Grade 5/10

Fine reportedly looked very good during the OTA’s, and therefore may have the slight edge entering camp as the starter, even though Trent prefers the other Derek at this point. Fine showed flashes last year and is probably the best blocker of the bunch, which will factor into the offensive coaching staffs’ decision as well.

 

Derek Schouman: Grade 5/10

Schouman made some nice plays last year when given the opportunity. But the biggest question at this point is: Who is the the better Derek? Right now, Schouman is just another painfully average tight end trying to stand out in training camp.

 

Shawn Nelson: Grade: N/A

He is a raw talent that could end up being a major factor in the passing game as the season wears on. He’s already being called a steal because he was rated as high as late first round picks on many draft boards.

 

While the main concern is his blocking, there is no questioning his receiving abilities. If he isn’t getting a majority of the reps at TE by midseason, it will be a disappointment.  

 

Overall Unit Grade: 5/10

 

Expectations:

Aside from the offensive line, this is a very difficult unit to gauge because all three have the potential to be really good. Whoever is on the field at the TE position should be wide open early and often because defensive coordinators will be focused on covering the plethora of wide receivers and running backs we have.

 

Regardless of which one emerges as the best receiver, we really need one of them to distinguish themselves as a blocker to help the offensive line develop.

 

 

Offensive Guard

 

Projected Depth Chart: Andy Levitre (starter), Eric Wood (starter), Seth McKinney, Kirk Chambers

 

Individual Analysis

 

Andy Levitre: Grade: N/A

If I had to grade on strictly potential at this point, I’d probably give him a 6 or 7. The worse case scenario with Levitre is that he will be a marginal upgrade over Dockery, or play at the same level as a rookie. But anything less than improvement at this position will be a disaster for this team; especially if they plan on protecting Trent and running the football consistently.

 

Regardless of how his rookie season pans out, don’t be surprised if in the long run he ends up being a better player than Wood. He has the talent and ability to be a pro bowl guard in this league.

 

Eric Wood: Grade: N/A

In terms of grading on “potential,” Wood is pretty much in the same boat as Levitre. He is definitely the more versatile player of the two rookies expected to start in 2009. And Wood has everything you look for in an offensive lineman; he was one of the top ranked center/guard prospects going into the draft.

 

Unless he’s a disappointment or gets hurt, he should step in as a rookie and add a lot a commanding physical presence to this new look offensive line.

 

Seth McKinney: Grade 5/10

McKinney is a solid veteran that might be a starter to open the season. There’s no upside here, but he does bring a lot of experience to the table, is very familiar with the division, and understands the 3-4 defenses after recently playing for the Browns.

 

Before the Browns, he spent time with the Dolphins, so he knows what it’s like to go up against Belichik and New England. I just hope he has enough desire and motivation to be more than another Jason Whittle clone at this point in his career.

 

Kirk Chambers: Grade 6/10

Chambers has come a long way the last few years, and he is making the transition to guard despite the fact that all of his experience thus far has been at tackle. His versatility and experience are invaluable to this offense, and will help him take on the starting left guard spot to open the season if the rookies aren’t ready.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 6/10

 

Expectations:

This is the hardest offensive unit to gauge because it’s very probable that two rookies will be starting at left and right guard when the 2009 season commences. Both are day one draft picks, and the low bust rate for interior linemen is working in our favor.

 

But what is working against us is the lack of chemistry and experience, and the fact that both will be playing at new positions in the pros. It’s all about potential right now, but in the long run I think we will be set at Guard for years to come.

 

Regardless of who starts at the guard positions in 2009, the key is if the center position can be effective against an onslaught of 3-4 nose tackles.

 

Center

 

Projected Depth Chart: Geoff Hangartner (starter)

 

Geoff Hangartner: Grade: 7/10

Even if Hangartner turns out to be nothing more than average, it should be a significant upgrade over the Melvin Fowler’s and Duke Preston’s of the world. He played extremely well for Carolina the last few years and many hardcore Panthers fans expect him to become a top-flight starting center for the Bills.

 

He became too expensive to retain after his successful audition last year in place of starting Center Ryan Kalil, and he has been consistent his entire career at Carolina.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 7/10

 

Expectations:

If for some reason ‘Hangman’ ends up being another Fowler, it’ll probably be Wood who takes over at center. We’re fortunate to have flexibility in the roster to make adjustments on the fly.

 

But again, the success of the entire interior of the line will hang on Hangartner’s shoulders in 2009. Let’s hope he doesn’t fail and is ready to rumble with the best 3-4 nose tackles not only in the division, but in the entire league.

 

If we do keep another lineman as a back up center other than Wood, I’m honestly not even sure who that would be at this point.

 

 

Tackle

 

Individual Analysis

 

Projected Depth Chart: Langston Walker (starter), Brad Butler (starter), Demetrius Bell

 

Langston Walker: Grade: 6/10

Walker played very well in three starts at left tackle in 2008. It’s expected that he’ll be no worse than Jason Peters and the 11.5 “pro bowl” caliber sacks he got in 2009.

 

There are definitely concerns about his size, especially against speed rushers, but he might just be a stop gap anyway. If Bell develops, he could be starting tackle at some point during the course of the season.

 

Brad Butler: Grade 6/10

It’s hard to gauge Butler as a tackle because he hasn’t played there since college. As a guard, he’s probably a solid 7/10 at best, but there are legitimate concerns regarding his switch to right tackle in 2009.

 

Chambers does have experience there, and Walker is the former RT. So we have the option to restore our 2008 starting right side if serious changes need to be made.

 

Demetrius Bell: Grade 6/10

Even though he’s only played five years of organized football, Bell is a player to watch this summer. He has all the physical tools, not too mention the athletic pedigree, to become a starter in the NFL.

 

If he’s ahead of schedule and has a great preseason, it will definitely make things interesting once the season starts. Let’s hope that happens even if Walker looks good as the starter.

 

Overall Unit Grade: 6/10

 

Expectations:

Aside from the pass rush, this is the one area that most fans and people close to the Bills’ organization are worried about. Everybody assumes that our tackles are going to be horrible since we lost Peters (who was statistically the worst LT in the league last year) and didn’t sign or draft a replacement.

 

Depending on how the retooled line looks in camp and preseason, I still think there is room for a veteran signing if needed. There are still several big name players available, including Levi Jones, whose name has been attached to Buffalo by everybody but the front office themselves.

 

But just as with the guard position, it’s all about potential for this group in 2009. No matter who the starting tackles are, they will certainly be under the microscope this year. They are the ones responsible for blocking the opposing defensive ends and protecting Edwards from the type of hit Adrian Wilson put on him last year in Arizona.

 

Overall Offense Grade: 8/10

 

Perhaps my overall grade is generous, but I’m looking solely at the explosive potential of the skill positions. There are definitely concerns regarding the offensive line because it is featuring five new starters, including two rookies.

 

But if the no-huddle is truly going to be a major part of the 2009 offense, then it will go a long way in masking any potential deficiencies up front. All the short drops and quick passes will confuse and wear down the opposing defenses that trying to keep up. We also have to assume that we have the weapons in place to counter aggressive pass rushes and force opposing defenses to back off.

 

The Bills have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL at wide receiver and running back. If Edwards can put it all together, then it’s possible that the 2009 squad could be a top 5-10 offense, even with an average/mediocre offensive line. You can look at the 2002 season in one of my previous articles for proof of that.

 

Dick Jauron will be a on a very hot seat in 2009. But it’s Turk Schonert and Sean Kugler’s seats that will be even hotter because they are the architects that are responsible for constructing the blueprint to make it all come to fruition.

 

For an offense that has ranked 25th or worse in each of the last six seasons, saying this unit needs to break out is an understatement.

 

But at worst they should be middle of the pack in 2009, barring major injuries at the skill positions and a complete offensive line implosion. At some point this team needs to start thinking touchdown instead of settling for field goals, and I hope that is the mindset in 2009. If not, we may find ourselves in many shootouts this year if the pass rush doesn’t improve.

Boom or Bust: Predicting the 2009 First Round Draft Class

 

Predicting the NFL draft has never been an exact science, especially when preparing mock draft boards. Even after the dust settles, predicting which newly selected NFL prospect will have a great career, an average career, or will be bagging groceries within three years is even tougher.

 

So with that said, here are my meaningless predictions of the 2009 first round draft class, and how things might shake out. Please keep in mind that if I call a player a bust, it doesn’t necessarily mean I think he’ll be another Ryan Leaf, it just means he won’t live up to the lofty expectations of a first round pick, especially if he was drafted much higher than he should have been.

 

Conversely, if I call boom on a player, it doesn’t mean he’s going to be a perennial pro bowler, and punch his ticket to the hall of fame on the first ballot. He could just end up being a solid, yet unspectacular player who lasts ten years in this league and never really achieves greatness.

 

 

1) Lions – Matthew Stafford – QB

Boom: He might not end up being the next Peyton Manning, but if Detroit develops him the right way and doesn’t force him into the starting lineup, he should turn out ok and eventually lead the Lions back to the playoffs. Has this team ever even had a true franchise QB?

 

 

2) Rams – Jason Smith – OT

Boom: Should be a franchise cornerstone for years to come, and will help immensely in pass protection. Look for Smith to have a Ryan Clady type of impact as a rookie and also open some nice holes for Steven Jackson who is in the prime of his career.

 

 

3) Chiefs – Tyson Jackson – DE

Bust: He might end up being a serviceable player, but definitely not a top 5 pick caliber player. Pioli has made some bold moves and is rolling the dice big time here as he tries to distinguish himself from “The Hoodie Empire”, and make his mark in KC. This would have been a better pick if he could have traded down and took Jackson later in the first round.

 

 

4) Seahawks – Aaron Curry – OLB

Boom: Should be a complete stud from day one and might have been the best overall player in the entire 2009 draft. There’s absolutely nothing here that indicates Curry will bust unless an injury derails his career early on. There’s also a lot of good defensive talent around him in Seattle to work with.

 

 

5) Jets – Mark Sanchez – QB

Bust: Might be one of the more over-hyped prospects in quite some time. With his new head coach already predicting big things, there is going to be a tremendous amount of pressure for him to produce from day one in a very demanding sports city. I don’t see it happening and the Jets offense could be an epic disaster in 2009.

 

 

6) Bengals – Andre Smith – OT

Boom: If not for the immature antics at the combines, he could have been the #1 or #2 overall pick. Regardless there is too much raw talent here for him to bust assuming he matures rather quickly. Starting off his career at right tackle should also help him have an impact early on.

 

 

7) Raiders – Darrius Heyward-Bey – WR

Bust: Might end up being a solid #2 down the road, but he’s pretty much a one trick pony as a deep threat, and not a complete WR at all. Definitely not the type of WR you draft with a top 10 pick, but the Raiders seem to be on a different page than the rest of the NFL in regards to their war room strategies.

 

 

8) Jaguars – Eugene Monroe – OT

Bust: I was torn on this one simply because of his injury history, obviously there’s a strong chance he could end up being a great NFL Tackle, but my gut feeling tells me that all 3 tackles taken in the top 10 won’t pan out, so he’s my candidate for the one that doesn’t.

 

 

9) Packers – BJ Raji – DT

Boom: Raji is an animal that should have an immediate impact in the Packers new 3-4 defense. Not sure he’s the best fit at where they want to play him though but the talent is good enough to overcome a positional change that he might not be suited for. I was really hoping he fell to Buffalo two spots later but it didn’t happen.

 

 

10) 49ers – Michael Crabtree – WR

Boom: Was easily a top 5 pick before the injury concerns leading up to the draft. Expectations in the bay area will be high considering guys named Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens were once catching passes there. The question is whether or not they have a Joe Montana or Steve Young to get him the ball.

 

 

11) Bills – Aaron Maybin – DE/OLB

Bust: I’m torn on this one as well, and even if Maybin can have moderate success rushing the passer, he’s not a complete player at this point. He might never get there either., but when you draft a DE or OLB in the top 15 that is what you’re typically looking for from day one. I’m really hoping he doesn’t end up being another Vernon Gholston, or it will be a disaster for a team desperate for QB pressure and sacks.

 

 

12) Broncos – Knowshon Moreno – RB

Boom: Given Denver’s success with RB’s of all flavors over the years, hard to see a first rounder busting there. Might not be an LT or Adrian Peterson, but Moreno will certainly be a perennial 1000 yard rusher and will be given the opportunity to shine in McDaniels offense from day one.

 

 

13) Redskins – Brian Orakpo – DE

Bust: Hard to read because just like PSU, Texas has had a negative history when it comes to highly touted first round prospects. Also the Redskins plan to play him at OLB in a traditional 4-3 defense in which I don’t see him being a good fit. Then again he will be playing behind a defensive line featuring Albert Haynesworth.

 

 

14) Saints – Malcolm Jenkins – CB

Boom: Another player that many scouts had rated as high as a top 5 pick on their draft board. He’s a versatile athlete capable of playing safety at the next level as well. He should be an instant upgrade on one of the leagues worst defenses.

 

 

15) Texans – Brian Cushing – OLB

Bust: Very tough to gauge this one. Even though I think Cushing could be consistent, but I’m not sure I see him as an impact player at outside linebacker in the NFL.

 

 

16) Chargers – Larry English – DE

Boom: English is a hard player to read. Is he a DE or LB? Is he a 1st rounder or 2nd rounder? Is he the next Shawn Merriman or Demarcus Ware? When it’s said and done I think he’ll pan out because I believe he was drafted by a team and defense that will know how to maximize his talent.

 

 

17) Buccaneers – Josh Freeman – QB

Bust: At one point I believed Freeman was oozing upside and potential, but the more film I watch on him the more I see another potential big armed washout with bad mechanics that is prone to turning the ball over, ala Akili Smith and JP Losman.

 

 

18) Broncos – Robert Ayers – DE/LB

Bust: Some scouts were in love with this kid leading up to the draft and felt he might be the best tweener DE/LB in the draft. For me there are too many questions marks to assume he’s going to pan out at the next level, especially since sacking the QB wasn’t something he did frequently in college.

 

 

19) Eagles – Jeremy Macklin – WR

Boom: He’s still quite raw heading into the NFL and needs to improve route running, but I do believe he fits perfectly in the west coast offense and has a great coaching staff and the right personnel around him to help develop early.

 

 

20) Lions – Brandon Pettigrew – TE

Boom: If the Lions ask him to be a dominant run/pass blocker and catch a lot of mid range passes than mission accomplished. You can’t consider him a bust if he isn’t able to be a dynamic downfield receiving threat because he’s simply not that type of player.

 

 

21) Browns – Alex Mack – C

Boom: He might have been taken a little too high, but he should be the anchor of the Browns offensive line for years to come, and likely will visit the pro bowl several times over the course of his career.

 

 

22) Vikings – Percy Harvin – WR

Bust: He has the speed, but too many questions marks about durability, route running, size, and his overall game for me to think he can be a true #1 WR in the NFL. Also big time questions as to who will be throwing him the ball in Minnesota. Missing the mandatory rookie symposium also has him on the league office radar.

 

 

23) Ravens – Michael Oher – OT

Bust: Ozzie Newsome has a great track record in Baltimore, and a lot draftniks felt that Oher was a steal considering he tumbled this far. But you can’t strike gold every year, and I feel Oher has too many flaws in his game to pan out as a top flight NFL tackle. With news of Mason’s pending retirement, they are going to wish they went WR here.

 

 

24) Falcons – Peria Jerry – DT

Bust: He would probably excel in a pure Cover 2 defense, but I’m not sure Atlanta is the best fit for him. There are also concerns about durability, and his overall football IQ heading into the pros. He will be asked to produce from day one on a suspect defense as well, which will add significant pressure.

 

 

25) Dolphins – Vontae Davis – CB

Bust: Probably one of the more overrated players heading into the draft, and there are definitely concerns about his inconsistency and lack of overall playmaking ability. Can’t really see him being anything more than a solid nickel back at best in the NFL but Parcells does have a good track record with drafting DB’s so that is one thing going in his favor.

 

 

26) Packers – Clay Matthews – OLB

Bust: Definitely a head scratcher, especially since the Packers gave up valuable draft picks to the Patriots to move up and get him. I guess this was Green Bay’s way of apologizing to New England for trading Favre to the rival Jets last year. Matthews was really nothing more than solid reserve/ST stud at USC so it’s hard to fathom him being anything more in the NFL.

 

 

27) Colts – Donald Brown – RB

Boom: Solid all around back that will be another weapon for Peyton Manning out of the backfield. Should produce from day one and take carries away from Addai gradually over the course of the season.

 

 

28) Bills – Eric Wood – C/G

Boom: Definitely the better first round choice for Buffalo as he will provide immediate help at guard. Will likely end up playing center down the road, but regardless he’s a great blocker that should be a cornerstone for years to come and will shore up the interior right away.

 

 

29) Giants – Hakeem Nicks – WR

Boom: Very solid all around WR that is probably more NFL ready than the rest of the 2009 WR draft class. Playing in a physical, run oriented offense will maximize his potential in New York.

 

 

30) Titans – Kenny Britt – WR

Bust: Hard player to read because of his inconsistency in college and questionable first step. He’s most certainly a long term project, but he landed on a team looking for an immediate impact at WR, and what complicates matters is the QB situation as well.

 

 

31) Cardinals – Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells – RB

Boom: Hard to imagine he was the third RB taken in the 2009 draft considering many had him rated as a top 10 pick. Regardless the Cardinals had to feel grateful that he fell all way to them at #31 because he’s going to be a dynamic weapon for an offense already loaded with stars and plenty of firepower.

 

 

32) Steelers – Evander Hood – DT

Boom: Do the Steelers ever draft bad defensive players? Everything I’ve seen from Hood indicates he should be on his way to being yet another perennial pro bowl fixture for a team that already boasts the NFL’s No. 1 overall defense.

 

 

 

 

10 Answers: What Needs To Happen For a Buffalo Bills Return To The Playoffs

10 Answers: What Needs To Happen For a Bills Return To The Playoffs in 2009?

 

One of the burning questions this off-season is as follows: what exactly needs to happen for the Buffalo Bills to return to the postseason? On the surface, simple answers include improving the offense, keeping Edwards healthy for 16 games, and improving the anemic pass rush.

 

But the more complex answers are in reality a multitude of factors that need to manifest themselves for this team to overcome the odds in 2009. In a perfect will everything will come together, but the Buffalo Bills live in a not so perfect world.

 

So let’s take a detailed look at just what needs to happen for the bills to make an elusive postseason appearance in 2009:

 

 

1. Attrition and Parity

 

On paper, the Bills play three of the toughest divisions in the NFL, including their very own AFC East. And on this same piece of paper the schedule is far more brutal and unforgiving than it was last year.

 

Given recent history, it’s probably safe to assume that some these teams will take a step backwards in 2009, or will flat out disappoint and not live up to lofty expectations. After all, only 6 teams in each conference make the playoffs when it’s all said and done.

 

But conversely, there are always teams that come out of nowhere to make a run when very few believe they would. So in banking on the former scenario, we all know that Jauron has no problem beating the sub-.500 teams.

 

And if teams like Miami, Atlanta, Carolina and Tennessee all have a down year that will help the Bills cause immensely.

 

 

2. Reanimation of the corpse

 

Not to be confused with the 1985 cult classic film, but Richard “The Corpse” Jauron needs to find a pulse in 2009 and recapture some of his early coaching career magic when he was the NFL coach of the year in 2001.

 

Jauron is known for being smarter than the average coach with his Yale pedigree, but his record against good teams (i.e. teams with a  record above .500) is downright pathetic. And many of his critics have said he’s one of the best coaches in the league when it comes to Monday–Saturday, but come Sunday he’s simply in over his head.

 

But the bottom line is that with the most talented offensive roster he’s ever fielded, he needs to turn it around in 2009 because if he don’t Buffalo will no longer have any use for a limp…(you know).

 

 

3. Exterminating the injury bug

 

There’s no question that Trent Edwards is the key player that must stay healthy for 16 games in 2009, but for the Bills to take the next step they need to squash the nagging injury bug that has hit this team hard the last few years.

 

Sending 10+ players to the injured reserve by midseason seems to be the norm in Buffalo as of late. And although it’s a convenient excuse as to why the Bills have struggled and failed to get back to the playoffs under Jauron, this is one trend that cannot continue in 2009.

 

At some point the strength and conditioning staff need to be held accountable, especially if we see another rash of injuries starting next month in camp.

 

Injuries are part of the game, and they’ll be some again in 2009, but at some point you need to win games and overcome them like all playoff teams do.

 

 

4. Edwards, TO, Evans and Lynch doing their best impersonation of Kelly, Reed, Loften, and Thomas

 

The news that Buffalo is going to utilize a no huddle offense in 2009 has brought tears of joy to many hard core nostalgic fans yearning for a return to glory. And even though it probably won’t be used more than 50 percent of the time, the personnel on the field needs to execute it early and often or it might be scrapped by midseason.

 

But regardless, many jaded fans are skeptical as to whether or not we’ll use it all. And there are definitely lofty expectations considering all the talk and hype about it this off-season, and if Jauron is serious about keeping his job than drastic change is needed regardless because his offensive philosophy the last three years has failed miserably.

 

It’s time for a chance one way or the other.

 

 

5. Taking advantage of the home field advantage

 

Cold weather teams are supposed to have a major advantage in their home stadium come November and December. But unfortunately the Bills have struggled in the cold weather at home the greater part of this decade, even against warm weather teams that aren’t supposed to win games in the north east.

 

This is going to have to change and change fast, especially since this team was near invincible at home during the glory years of the late 80’s and early/mid 90’s. Last year was a clever façade as the Bills started 3-0 at home, but then they went on to lose their last five including the Toronto “home” game.

 

What’s the point of playing games outside if you can’t win them? Might as well build a new dome in downtown Buffalo if this franchise stays put long term.

 

 

6. Continue to build on recent road success

 

One thing that hasn’t been talked about much under Jauron is the Bills road record. Jauron himself will tell you that it’s very difficult to win games in this league, especially on the road.

 

And his 10-14 record on the road isn’t too shabby when you factor in all of the losses against good teams that could have been wins with a better game plan and a healthy roster.

 

The Bills quietly went 4-4 on the road last year and were a J.P. Losman fumble away from finishing 5-3. If the Bills are going to make the playoffs in 2009 they are going to have to break even at minimum to have a chance.

 

Beating bottom feeders and other mediocre squads on the road is nice, but now is the time to beat some contenders away from home as well.

 

 

7. Turk Schonert as an offense taker opposed to an offense maker

 

Remember the Chiefs game last year? If the aforementioned no-huddle plan comes to fruition, we could see a lot of similar outcomes in 2009 in Buffalo’s favor. But for this to happen, Schonert needs to hand the reigns off to Trent Edwards and not look back.

 

After losing four straight last year, Schonert moved upstairs to the coaching box to see the field and get a better idea of the flow of the game. It was a great start, but he still needs to relinquish control of the offense because if he can’t swallow his pride this offense will be stuck in neutral.

 

Edwards is a smart QB that is more than capable of letting the offense run through him.

 

 

8. Significant production from the unexpected

 

I did a piece recently about 9 players who will breakout in 2009, and even though it’s highly unlikely that all of them do, we need at least three of them to. The ones that are most crucial include John McCargo, Trent Edwards and Leodis McKelvin.

 

But here’s hoping that somebody like Aaron Maybin, Poz, or even Chris Ellis can emerge as an untamed beast on defense in 2009 because we still have several gaping holes on that side of the football that could hold this team back.

 

It would also be nice if Schobel regains his 2006, pre-mega contract form as well because this team is starving for sacks.

 

 

9. Refusing to raise the white flag in the trenches

 

Cliché time: The game is won in the trenches, and all eyes will be on Buffalo’s retooled offensive line in 2009.

 

The brain trust in Orchard Park believes they’ve addressed the interior of the line more than enough to handle the onslaught of nose tackles in a division where all three rivals play the 3-4, but the biggest questions will be at the tackle positions that protect the pass rush from the outside.

 

This line was brutal in 2008, and if they are worse this year than there will be no chance of making it to the postseason, let alone Edwards lasting 16 games. Conversely, the defensive line needs to produce some semblance of a pass rush in 2009 and hope the run defense holds firm like it did last year.

 

 

10. Rise of a superstar

 

The last and most important aspect that will determine the 2009 Buffalo Bills playoff fate is simple. Most playoff teams have one thing in common: they either send multiple players to the pro bowl or they have one key player that single-handedly carries the team in MVP fashion.

 

If one player truly needs to rise to the occasion in 2009 and have a career year, it’s Trent Edwards. But even if Edwards is marginally improved from 2008, that could pave the way for somebody like Evans, TO or Lynch to emerge as a prime time player capable of taking a game over.

 

On defense McKelvin and Whitner are young defenders that have shown flashes, but to truly become a playmaker, somebody needs to make plays and consistently take the ball away from opposing offenses.

Seven and Nine: Seven Key Games on The Bills 2009 Schedule.

Seven and Nine: Seven key games to win that will end Buffalo’s nine year playoff drought.

 

Seven and Nine are familiar numbers to Buffalo Bills fans, and it’s a dubious combination that the team itself wants to avoid at all costs when the final standings are sorted out the evening of January 3, 2010.

 

One thing is for certain, if the Bills finish 7-9 again this season, not only will they extend their playoff drought to double digits in terms of years, but there will likely be wholesale changes made in the front office, coaching staff, and roster.

With the exception of last year’s 5-1 start, a major reason why the Bills have failed to make the playoffs is because of their notoriously slow starts the greater part of this decade.

 

If they ever want to get back to playing football in January and February, they can ill afford another slow start. It’d be nice to replicate last season’s fantastic start, but even if they can manage a .500 record through their first six games, they should be in good shape heading down the stretch.

 

Obviously, an NFL season isn’t as long as the other three major professional sports leagues, so you can argue that every game in a 16 game NFL schedule is equally important.

 

Here are seven key dates that are significantly more important than the other nine. And what makes them so important is that they are either divisional or against fellow AFC conference rivals that all have the same goal in mind. So mark your calendar now, because the Bills are likely going to need to win at least four or five of these contests to have a chance at making it back to the playoffs this year.

 

 

 

1) AT New England 09/14/09

 

Considering the venue, the hype, and the prime time slot, this game has all the makings of another lopsided blowout in the Patriot’s favor.

 

But what if the Bills go into Foxboro and do the unthinkable? It could very well set the tone for a special season, and would certainly be a disaster for the media circus that is anticipating nothing short than a Patriot rout of the Bills as Tom Brady makes his triumphant return to the NFL.

 

I would also imagine that the Vegas gambling network would collapse considering how much money is likely going to be waged on this one in the Pats favor, as they will likely be at least 14 point favorites by kickoff.

 

 

 

2) AT Miami 10/04/09

 

Whether you want to call it Land Shark Stadium, Joe Robbie Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, etc; the Bills have won three of last five in South Florida. This is a very key game for both teams because the Dolphins could very well be 0-3 going into this one, which would give the Bills an opportunity to go for the jugular early.

 

Conversely, if the Bills lose in New England, they will be desperate to avoid a 0-2 start in division play, and for a team that went 0-6 in division play last year the pressure will mount fast.

 

Given the schedule, there’s also a chance that the Bills are 1-2 heading into this one. So again, to avoid an early season hole, this one has “must win” written all over it.

 

 

 

3) Houston 11/01/09

 

A very big game before the bye week and this one will likely have major tie breaker ramifications for both teams in terms of potential playoff seeding and a wild card spot.

 

The Texans could be very good in 2009, and like the Bills they are looking to not only make the playoffs for the first time this decade, but also the first time ever. Luckily the Bills get them at home despite the fact they’ve been far from dominant there in recent years.

 

Houston has only been to Buffalo once, but did come out victorious in that contest. Buffalo has visited Houston twice and won both games there as well. With two young up and coming teams, I smell a potential rivalry brewing.

 

 

 

4) AT Tennessee 11/15/09

 

Coming off the bye week, another huge game against the AFC South looms large. Even if they aren’t the juggernaut they were last year, the Titans will likely be in the thick of the playoff race at this point.

 

Buffalo could be looking to avoid falling below .500 here or get on a roll as they make a strong push for the playoffs. But for the Bills to get back to the postseason, they need to win games on the road against contenders.

 

This contest should be a game that tells us exactly who the 2009 Buffalo Bills are. They need to prove they can hang with physical teams and run the football against them.

 

 

 

5) New York (Toronto) 12/03/09

 

Buffalo’s new second home is in Toronto, but it’s really just a neutral field on foreign soil.

 

It’s always tough to play a Thursday game with just a few days of preparation, and considering this is a division rival that makes it even more difficult. Also factor in they will play Miami in Buffalo just a few days before this game.

 

The Jets might be in the playoff mix, or looking ahead to 2010 by this time, but either way the Bills need to win their first “home” game in Toronto.

 

Playing in the dome should help as well since neither team will have to worry about the inclement weather conditions that comes with the territory in December.

 

 

 

6) New England 12/20/09

 

Twas the Sunday before Christmas, when in a jam packed Ralph Wilson stadium, not a fan was quiet, and if the Bills could win this game it may incite a riot. Or it might just be another lopsided win in New England’s favor, and the Bills could be out of playoff contention by then.

 

After all that has been the norm in Western NY for far too long. But could you imagine if the Bills go into this one with a chance to not only sweep the Patriots, but to put a stranglehold on the AFC East?

 

If this game does end up having serious division and playoff implications, look for it to be moved to the prime time Sunday night slot.

 

 

 

7) Indianapolis 01/03/10

 

This could very well be a win and get in game. And against a veteran team like the Colts, it won’t be an easy task.

 

One thing’s for sure though, the last thing Bills fans want is another game like the 2004 season finale against the Steelers, especially if the Colts don’t need to win this one.

 

Regardless the implications, it’s never an easy task playing a Manning led offense. And these Colts have come a long way since being a former AFC East cellar dweller that was usually good for two easy wins a year.

 

Here’s hoping this isn’t the only game Buffalo will be playing in January 2010. This is also another possible flex scheduling candidate.

NFL 2009 Season Preview: Separating the Dark Horses from the Trojan Horses

With the exception of recent dynasties like the Patriots and Steelers, the NFL is still rife with parity. And as a result, every year several teams come out of nowhere to shock the NFL world.

 

After finishing last the previous season in their respective divisions, we saw Philadelphia, Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta rise from the ashes to make the 2008 postseason.

 

The Eagles’ and Ravens’ turnarounds weren’t necessarily surprising considering both teams had significant playoff success this decade, but there likely isn’t an “expert” out there who had the Falcons and Dolphins making a return to the postseason.

 

Conversely, every year there are teams with lofty expectations pegged as playoff locks and championship contenders that fall short of expectations. These teams resemble the  computer version of a Trojan horse: they appear legitimate based on recent history, but inherent destructive elements are in place that could ultimately lead to undesirable results.

 

Last year, such 2007 playoff teams as Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle, and Jacksonville all met this fate—and most of them fell hard. In fact, with the exception of Tampa, these teams made it to at least the second round of the 2007 playoffs before failing to qualify at all in 2008.

 

So, who are the likely 2009 dark horse and Trojan horse candidates? Let’s take a look at all eight divisions and pick a team with the potential to rise, and one with the potential to fall.

 

 

NFC East

 

Dark Horse: Washington Redskins

 

The NFC East could quite possibly be the best division in the NFL in 2009. Most everyone in the football world has the Eagles and Giants penciled in as not only the top two teams in the division, but the top two teams in the conference. Some would suggest they are the top two teams in the NFL.

 

I’m not a Dan Snyder fan, but if Albert Haynesworth stays healthy and doesn’t turn into another bloated unmotivated fat cat, the ‘Skins defense should be among the league’s best in 2009. It will be interesting to see how Jason Campbell reacts knowing ownership doesn’t believe in him as the QB of the future.

 

When you consider the 2008 Redskins raced out to a 6-2 start, there are elements in place that tell me this team could surprise in 2009 and sneak up on the two favorites.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Philadelphia Eagles

 

The Eagles are the consensus “sexy” pick in 2009 to win the division and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If all the key players stay healthy and the draft class produces, I agree they are a wild card team at worst.

 

But that’s in a perfect world; in reality there are some combustible elements here I don’t like. First of all, if Donovan McNabb gets hurt this team isn’t going anywhere.

 

Brian Westbrook is the key to making the entire offense work, and he has never played a full season in his NFL career. There are already big time questions regarding his health heading into the season.

 

A lot of experts also think the offensive line will be dominant in 2009 with the addition of Jason Peters, but he is another player with injury concerns. A lot of curious eyes will be watching to see if he truly is a Pro Bowler, or just a pretender. As a Bills fan who knows the real Jason Peters, I’m betting on the latter.

 

Defensively, longtime cornerstones Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard have moved on via free agency, and there is likely going to be a new defensive coordinator as well. See where I’m going with all of this?

 

NFC North

 

Dark Horse: Green Bay Packers

 

It wouldn’t be a shock if the Packers make the playoffs in 2009; after all, they went 13-3 just two years ago and possess a great young QB in Aaron Rodgers. Regardless, they do play in what should be a vastly improved division, and they are making the transition to 3-4 defense as well. This could perpetuate the defensive struggles that held them back last year.

 

Rodgers was definitely the best choice in the 2005 QB draft class despite the fact he tumbled on draft day, and offensively the Pack should have enough firepower to win games as he continues to grow.

 

I really feel they will be a surprise because most pundits have the Bears and Vikings as the division favorites and aren’t even mentioning the Packers in the conversation. You have to go way back to the pre-Favre days to see a Packers team flying under the radar like this one.  

 

 

Trojan Horse: Chicago Bears

 

It’d be too easy to pick Minnesota because of the imminent signing of a declining Brett Favre and the potential media circus and locker room mutiny that will follow him there.

 

Still, I don’t see the Vikings falling off; with or without Favre they are the team to beat with Adrian Peterson and their defense. They also have a pretty easy schedule to open the season that can help overcome the looming suspension of the Williams boys.

 

Moving on, I know the Bears weren’t a playoff team last year, but they did finish second at 9-7. A lot of people think they are a lock in 2009 because they landed Jay Cutler, but if you take a closer look I see this team regressing in 2009.

 

Many of the key players on the defensive side of the ball have started to show their age. And on offense I do believe Cutler will be exposed for the turnover machine he is and won’t come close to passing for as many yards as he did in Mike Shanahan’s offense.

 

If there’s a more overrated player in the NFL today, please show him to me. Even if Cutler as expected, the 2009 Bears might look a lot like the 2008 Broncos.

 

 

NFC South

 

Dark Horse: New Orleans Saints

 

Here’s another team that might not be a playoff surprise given how good their offense is, but when you finish last in your division in 2008 to make the playoffs in 2009 would be considered an improvement.

 

Teams like the Saints are somewhat of an enigma, though. Since winning the division in 2006 and making it the NFC Championship, they have fallen on hard times. Numerous defensive adjustments haven’t helped support their prolific offense.

 

They also need to improve away from the Superdome as they’ve been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team on the road. Odds are this year they get the defense fixed and their offense could be even better in 2009—if that’s possible. Here’s hoping Drew Brees’ career doesn’t go the way of Dan Marino’s.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Atlanta Falcons

 

Knowing they were starting over after the Michael Vick dog-fighting debacle, nobody expected the Falcons to win more than five or six games in 2008.

 

How can you root against them now after Matt Ryan’s ridiculous rookie campaign? Let’s be realistic: They will now be the hunted, and Ryan will have a major target on his back in 2009.

 

Also consider the fact they face the loaded AFC East, NFC East and their own division, in which all four teams finished with 8 or more wins in 2008. You get the picture.

 

Assuming Ryan avoids the dreaded sophomore slump, they might be even better offensively in 2009. But defensively I see all kinds of question marks that will no doubt be answered in a negative way come September. History is not on Atlanta’s side as the Falcons have never posted back-to-back winning seasons. Add it all up and they have all the makings for a classic letdown.

 

NFC West

 

Dark Horse: San Francisco 49ers

 

When you watch Mike Singletary on the sidelines, you see an old-school throwback to the good old days. And I do believe it was the right move by the 49ers to retain him for the long term.

 

San Fran’s disciplined 3-4 defense is very underrated. They were one of the hotter teams down the stretch last year, winning five of their last seven.

 

Heading into 2009, the biggest question they have to answer is at QB. Shaun Hill was very effective last year after taking over as the starter, and word out of the Bay Area is that former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith may be ready to rise to the forefront as well.

 

Despite the fact the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl last year, the division remains relatively weak. Look for the 49ers to take advantage.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Arizona Cardinals

 

Will the dreaded curse of the Super Bowl loser continue? Perhaps, but the reason I think the Cardinals could be a potential disappointment in 2009 is simple: Just like the Falcons, Arizona has been hard-pressed to post consecutive winning seasons—let alone playoff runs.

 

Keeping Warner was the right move, but he isn’t exactly a spring chicken. His history of injury is cause for concern as well. There are also major contract issues with just about every star player on the roster demanding a new contract this offseason.

 

But the biggest question might be continuity in terms of coaching considering the Cardinals lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to Kansas City.

 

Let’s not forget that despite their deep playoff run last year, this team pretty much backed into the playoffs by finishing 9-7 after a 7-3 start. And they had some very ugly losses in the process.

 

 

AFC East

 

Dark Horse: Buffalo Bills

 

After three straight 7-9 seasons and going 0-6 in the division last year, not many people outside of western New York are giving the Bills much of a chance. No matter that they added one of the biggest names in professional sports history.

 

“That Player,” as Bill Parcells called him in Dallas, will make a major impact on the offensive side of the ball whether or not this is truly a playoff-caliber team.

 

I like Buffalo this year, and not just because I’m a Bills fan. I believe pseudo-GM Russ Brandon has a made a lot of bold power moves to get this franchise heading in the right direction.

 

Trading Jason Peters was a coup despite what a lot of the so-called experts think. By trading the overrated, unmotivated diva, they likely added a franchise offensive lineman and top-flight tight end.

 

They might not be the best team in the division yet, but they won’t go 0-6 either. Aside from the addition of Terrell Owens and other solid veteran help, there is a plethora of young talent on both sides of the ball primed to explode.

 

Even if the coaching staff remains suspect, it’s the players on the field that ultimately win games. In 2009, Buffalo will likely field their most talented roster this decade.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Miami Dolphins

 

Nobody expected the 1-15 dolphins to become the 11-5 dolphins, but the Parcells magic prevailed, and Brett Favre sent a gift-wrapped package to south Florida in the form of a starting QB.

 

The Jets may have dumped Chad Pennington in favor of the aforementioned prima donna, but it was them—not the Fins—who ended up all wet.

 

But 2009 will be a far different story for the Cinderella porpoises. On paper they had the easiest schedule in the league in 2008, but on paper in 2009 they have the hardest.

 

History has shown that Pennington is an up-and-down QB. Even if he is healthy, he’s never had back-to-back winning seasons. Also, the wildcat offense was a great idea last year, but this year it won’t be a surprise to opposing defenses.

 

And speaking of defense, a lot of the key players on that side of the ball are aging. The Dolphins have yet to patch up a suspect secondary and will be relying on rookies to improve the pass defense. Add it all up and I believe they take a step backwards this year and could find themselves treading deep water early.  

 

AFC North

 

Dark Horse: Cincinnati Bengals

 

With the exception of Chad Ochocinco’s latest off-the-field antics, the Bengals are quietly flying under the radar this offseason. But then again when have the Bengals ever been expected to do anything the last 20 years?

 

I’m not overlooking them, though, and I think this team might have had the best overall offseason in terms of draft and free-agent signings. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, the Bengals should field their best team since 2005, when they last won the division and made the playoffs.

 

They likely aren’t good enough to knock off the defending world champion Steelers for the division crown, but there just might be enough here to steal a wild card spot if they can string together some wins early. Marvin Lewis is perched on one of the hotter seats in the NFL in 2009, so they’ll need to produce in order to keep him around for the long term.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Baltimore Ravens

 

I don’t believe the Ravens will fall off the map completely in 2009, but I don’t see them being as good as they were last year.

 

They lost defensive coordinator and evil genius Rex Ryan, who is currently in New York making bold prognostications and statements. He brought some key pieces to the puzzle along with him to his new team that will ultimately hurt the Ravens.

 

Offensively I’m not sure Joe Flacco will be able to improve much considering he still doesn’t have a legitimate playmaker to catch the ball. The run game should be solid, but overall they definitely don’t have a team capable of beating the Steelers.

 

And with Ray Lewis in the twilight of his career, they definitely need to start thinking about the future.

 

 

AFC South

 

Dark Horse: Houston Texans

 

I’m jumping on the standing-room-only Texans bandwagon. I do believe this team is due to break through and make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They are loaded with great young talent on both sides of the football, and just like the Saints they are banking on the defense to make a marginal improvement to propel their top five offense into the playoffs.

 

They play in a very tough division, and face a very tough schedule on paper in 2009, but at some point talent prevails. Instead of knocking on the door, they may just break it down.

 

The recipe for success is pretty simple: Get off to a fast start, beat the Colts, and keep Matt Schaub healthy. I think all three happen this year.

 

 

Trojan Horse: Tennessee Titans

 

Even though I see the Colts as a potential disappointment as well, it’s easier to pick the Titans because they don’t have a guy named Manning playing for them.

 

Jeff Fisher has done a great job during his extended tenure as head coach—going all the way back to the Houston Oilers days. But no matter which way you slice it, losing Haynesworth was a major blow to a physical team built on defense. He was the Hoover Dam that kept the Colorado River from bursting through.

 

Offensively they should have continuing success pounding the rock with two great running backs. However, in terms of the passing game you have the feeling that Kerry Collins might not have enough left in the tank. Vince Young is another cancerous element waiting to join the elite diva ranks of Favre and T.O.

 

The division hasn’t gotten any easier, and the Titans could take a step back in 2009 if a lot of things don’t go their way.

 

AFC West

 

Dark Horse: Oakland Raiders

 

The Raiders played much better in the second half of last year under Tom Cable. They had some big wins against teams fighting for a playoff spot, including the Jets and on the road against the Broncos and Buccaneers.

 

They have a sound offensive line and great running game, and if JaMarcus Russell can prove he’s more than another strong armed QB, all the ingredients are in the mixing bowl for this offense to score a lot of points in 2009.

 

The division is weak, and signing defensive end Greg Ellis was a shrewd move to help a defense that has been pretty solid the last few years and features the NFL’s top cornerback.

 

Their top two draft picks in April raised some eyebrows, but perhaps there is a method after all behind Al Davis’ madness. An opening-day win against the Chargers on the Monday Night Football doubleheader would surely set the tone for the season. Don’t forget they blew a big lead at home against the Chargers last year.

 

 

Trojan Horse: San Diego Chargers

 

Considering how weak this division was in 2008, it’s hard to pick a true “disappointment” here. But despite making a late-season charge to make the playoffs, San Diego was only 8-8 last year. In fact, they were 4-8 at one point, which definitely qualifies as disappointing.

 

In an ironic twist of fate, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a huge win in Denver on Week 16, setting the stage for San Diego to clinch the division in the season finale.

 

Philip Rivers is a top-five QB, but there are concerns that LaDainian Tomlinson is finished. Some rightly wondered whether San Diego kept the right running back when they traded Turner to Atlanta last year.

 

On defense, one wonders if Shawne Merriman’s return will be enough to improve a defense that had many gaping holes in 2008.

 

I still think they win the division by default, but their overall record could once again be disappointing. And they might not steamroll through the division this year if Oakland and Kansas City improve as expected. Don’t be surprised if Denver is more competitive than people think they will be.

Breaking Down the Bills 2009 Schedule: Part Four, Where The Bills Fit In

Definition of Improvement:

1: the act or process of improving
2 a: the state of being improved ; especially : enhanced value or excellence b: an instance of such improvement : something that enhances value or excellence

 

Technically, every year all 32 teams in the NFL “improve” because of free agency and the draft, yet only 12 will make the playoffs. The other 20 teams will be looking ahead to next year—some with many holes to fill, others only a player or two away from taking that next step, and the rest are left wondering what went wrong—believing they made the necessary moves to make the playoffs, but didn’t.

A common theme we’ve heard this offseason from the media talking heads and “expert” NFL analysts is that the Buffalo Bills have gotten better (at least in some areas), but so has the rest of the AFC East; negating the improvement on our end. therefore we are destined to finish last place again for a second consecutive season.

 

We’re also led to believe we play two extremely difficult divisions from the AFC South and NFC South in 2009. Both divisions sent two teams to the playoffs last year, and the worst team in the NFC South finished 8-8.

 

Of course, all of this could end up being true. But that’s why they will line up and play the games this fall.

I’ve decided to break down all the teams on the Buffalo Bills 2009 schedule and take a look at who improved, who will maintain the status quo, and who took a step backwards.

Here is the fourth and final installment in which I’m taking an in depth look at the fourth place AFCN and AFCW teams we play (Chiefs and Browns) and also where the Bills fit into the equation.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

2008 Results: 2-14, fourth place AFCW, no playoffs

Key Additions: Matt Cassel, Todd Haley Tyson Jackson, Mike Vrabel, Monty Beisel, Terrance Coppor, Bobby Engram, Mike Goff, Zach Thomas, Tony Curtis

 

Key Losses: Herm Edwards, Damon Huard, Patrick Surtain, Donnie Edwards, Tony Gonzalez, Pat Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Quinn Gray

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

When you are 2-14 there’s not much room to go but up, but with a new head coach, a new 3-4 defense and no more Tony Gonzalez, getting to six wins could get Todd Haley coach of the year consideration.

Still have questions about: TE, WR, OL, DE, DT, LB, Secondary

The key to their season: Matt Cassel proving his 10-5 record with the Patriots was no fluke and that he can produce outside of the evil empire.

 

Without “The Hoodie”, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and the invincible aura that surrounds Foxboro, we might be referring to Matt Cassel as Scott Mitchell version 2.0 after the 2009 season.

 

Chief fans also have to hope the new 3-4 defense can get more sacks than last year’s anemic unit whose low point of the season was getting 54 points dropped on them at home by the Bills, who were far from an NFL juggernaut in 2008.

 

Unfortunately it usually takes at least one year for teams to make a successful transition to that style of defense despite the personnel on the roster.

 

Best case scenario: Six to eight wins, no playoffs
Worst case scenario: Three to five wins, no playoffs
What I expect: 5-11, no playoffs

 

Cleveland Browns

 

2008 Results: 4-12, fourth place AFCN, no playoffs

Key Additions: Eric Mangini, Alex Mack, Brian Robiski, Robert Royal, Abram Elam, Bret Ratliff, David Bowens, Eric Barton, Cory Ivy, Kenyon Coleman, Mike Furrey, Rod Hood

Key Losses: Romeo Crennel, Kellen Winslow, Andra Davis, Sean Jones, Willie McGinest, Joe Jurevicious, Kevin Shaffer

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

From one Belichik disciple to another, but the new one at least has taken a team to the playoffs and two of his three years as head coach in NY resulted in winning records.

An overhauled roster and expectations that Brady Quinn will emerge as a first round QB will likely field a more competitive team in 2009, but I don’t expect a quantum leap in terms of wins. Then again stranger things have happened and this is a team that just two years ago managed 10 wins.

At this point I’ll take the safe bet and say they will be the worst team in the AFC North.

Still have questions about: OL, DE, safety, LB, QB

The key to their season: Brady Quinn, assuming he emerges from the camp battle, needs to prove he is the QB of the future for Cleveland especially in a division against two of the top three defenses from a year ago.

Mangini also needs to capture some of the magic from his debut with the Jets in 2006 when he went 10-6 and made the playoffs.

Best case scenario: Six to eight wins, no playoffs

Worst case scenario: Two to five wins, no playoffs

What I expect: 4-12, no playoffs

 

Now on to our very own Bills with a more in depth look…

2008 Results: 7-9, fourth place AFCE (0-6), no playoffs

Key Additions: TO, Bob Sanders (DL coach), Aaron Maybin, Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drayton Florence, Geoff Hangartner, Pat Thomas, Dominick Rhodes, Seth McKinney, Shawn Nelson

Key Losses: Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Robert Royal, JP Losman, Angelo Crowell, Melvin Fowler, Duke Preston, Jabari Greer

Key Re-signings/Extensions: Fred Jackson, Marcus Stroud, John ‘The Digi’ Digiorgio, Corey McIntyre, Kirk Chambers

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

Unfortunately the same inept coaching staff that has managed not one, not two, but three consecutive 7-9 seasons is intact with the only change coming in the form of new DL coach Bob Sanders.

When you look at Richard “The Corpse” Jauron’s career resume, several words come to mind including mediocre.

Buffalo was able to secure the premier, albeit controversial, free agent available this off season. TO brings a lot of baggage off the field, but you can’t deny what he brings on the field even if he’s not the same player he was five years ago.

Buffalo also trimmed a lot of the perceived “dead weight” this offseason, and sent a clear message to other remaining “fat cats” and underachievers by trying to trade them.

The addition of TO alone improves this team, and on paper the 2009 has been perceived as one of the best in the league by most pundits.

Strengths: WR, QB, RB, DB

Could go either way: MLB S, DT, DE, TE, OLINE

Weaknesses: Coaching, OLB

Biggest area of potential progression: QB, OL, WR, TE, RB, S, DB, DE

Biggest area of potential digression: MLB, OLB, DT

The key to their season: First, Trent Edwards. If he takes the next step and builds off the promise he’s shown through his first two NFL seasons, it should be enough to compensate for the average at best coaching.

The Corpse is bound to blow at least one game this year as that’s his usual MO, but if No. 5 progresses then he could carry this team and win many games with his knack for clutch fourth quarter play.

Second, Schobel’s return combined with the development of young defensive talent will dictate how much the defense can improve on from a respectable 14th ranked unit in 2008. But more pressure on opposing QB’s is needed regardless as the 2009 schedule is far more unforgiving (at least on paper) than the 2008 slate.

And finally third, Buffalo did manage to go 7-3 last year outside the division, and they very easily could have been 9-1 in those games if the ball bounces the other direction on a few plays.

And as inconsistent as Jauron has been as a coach, he did go 3-3 and 4-2 against the AFCE in his first two season, but last year the wheels came off as he went 0-6. That has to improve, and for the Bills to get to the playoffs they have to go no worse than 3-3 in 2009.

What happens if this team doesn’t make the playoffs:

Say goodbye to “Corpseball,” and depending on what happens with Edwards, TO, and the defense, we might be looking at a wholesale housecleaning that will leave us further away from the postseason entering 2010 than we were entering 2009.

Best case scenario: Nine to 12 wins, AFC wild card as No. 5/No. 6 seed, deep playoff run

Worst Case Scenario: Four to eight wins, no playoffs

What I expect: 10-6 (7-3 non division play), second place AFCE (3-3 record), fourth/fifth seed in playoffs and one playoff win.

As always, feel free to critique, discuss, flame, and offer your own analysis/insight…..

Upcoming articles: Savior Edwards 2009 NFL preview, 10 Bold predictions for the 2009 Bills, predicting the Bills 2009 schedule, and plenty more…..

Breaking Down the Buffalo Bills 2009 Schedule Part 3: NFC South

Definition of Improvement:

1: the act or process of improving
2 a: the state of being improved ; especially : enhanced value or excellence b: an instance of such improvement : something that enhances value or excellence

Technically, every year all 32 teams in the NFL “improve” because of Free Agency and the draft, yet only 12 will make the playoffs. The other 20 teams will be looking ahead to next year—some with many holes to fill, others only a player or two away from taking that next step, and the rest are left wondering what went wrong—believing they made the necessary moves to make the playoffs, but didn’t.

A common theme we’ve heard this off season from the media talking heads and “expert” NFL analysts is that the Buffalo Bills have gotten better (at least in some areas), but so has the rest of the AFC East; negating the improvement on our end. therefore we are destined to finish last place again for a second consecutive season.

 

We’re also led to believe we play two extremely difficult divisions from the AFC South and NFC South in 2009. Both divisions sent two teams to the playoffs last year, and the worst team in the NFC South finished 8-8.

 

Of course, all of this could end up being true. But that’s why they will line up and play the games this fall.

I’ve decided to break down all the teams on the Buffalo Bills 2009 schedule and take a look at who improved, who will maintain the status quo, and who took a step backwards.

Here is the third installment in which I’m taking an in depth look at the NFC South:

 

 

1) Carolina Panthers

 

2008 Results:12-4, NFCS Champion, No. 2 seed, 2nd round loss at home to No. 4 Arizona

Key Additions: Everette Brown, Sherrod Martin, Justin Geisinger

 

Key Losses: Jeff Hangartner, Nick Goings, DJ Hackett, Darwin Walker, Ken Lucas

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

When your biggest FA acquisition is a former 7th round pick of the Buffalo Bills, it’s a bold statement to claim you’ve improved.

 

They also mortgaged a 2010 1st round pick to draft Everette Brown as a possible insurance policy, who tumbled from a top 15 prospect all they way to the middle of the 2nd round.

 

Resigning the aging Jake Delhomme to a big contract raised eyebrows around the NFL world especially after a shaky finish and 6 INT performance in the playoffs.

 

Let’s not forget that the face of the franchise’s status is very much up in the air, in addition to Peppers demanding a gargantuan payday.

 

Yes, they return a bulk of their core that won the division last year, but I don’t see this squad being improved and maintaining the status quo might not be enough in a vastly improved NFC conference.

Still have questions about: QB, OL Depth, TE, Safety, DT

 

The key to their season: Julius Peppers. Will he be motivated and productive if he returns? Also, Delhomme will have to rebound in a major way from his horrible playoff performance and late season funk for this team to get back to the playoff. What will be working against him is his “Penningtonesque” track record of following a playoff year with an injury riddled and inconsistent season.

Best Case Scenario: 10 to 12 wins, NFCS title/wild card, deep playoff run
Worst Case Scenario: 6 to 9 wins, no playoffs
What I expect: 8-8, no playoffs

 

 

2) Atlanta Falcons

 

2008 Results: 11-5, 2nd place NFCS, No. 5 seed, 1st round loss at No. 4 Arizona

Key Additions: Peria Jerry, William Moore, Tony Gonzalez, Mike Peterson

 

Key Losses: Todd Weiner, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Lawyer Malloy, Marcus Pollard, Wayne Gandy

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

Anytime you add an HOF player that still has gas in the tank you would deem that an improvement, but given their schedule in 2009 and all sorts of holes on defense, I believe they took a step backward even if Matt Ryan takes a step forward and avoids the dreaded sophomore slump.

Still have questions about: OL, DT, LB, Safety, DB

The key to their season: Matt Ryan doing his best impersonation of Peyton Manning and taking his game to next level to outscore teams week after week in shootouts.

 

Also, Mike Smith will have to build on his impressive rookie coaching campaign to compensate for a lack of talent on defense.

 

Atlanta has never posted back to back winning seasons in their entire franchise history, so that’s a good motivation point for Smith and his staff to utilize as a team that will not sneak up on anybody in 2009.

 

Considering the Falcons have the AFC East and NFC East on their schedule, Smith should win “the coach of the decade” award if they can manage to post a winning record and make to the playoffs in consecutive years.

 

Best Case Scenario: 10 or 11 wins, NFCS Title/ Wild card, deep playoff run

Worst Case Scenario: 5 to 9 wins, no playoffs

What I expect: 7-9, no playoffs

 

 

3) Tampa Bay

 

2008 Results: 9-7, 3rd place NFCS, no playoffs

Key Additions: Kellen Winslow, Josh Freeman, Derrick Ward, Angelo Crowell, Byron Leftwich, Raheem Morris (New Coach), Mike Nugent

 

Key Losses: John Gruden, Derrick Brooks, Ike Hilliard, Warrick Dunn, Cato June, Joey Galloway, Phillip Buchanan, Jovan Haye, Jeff Garcia,  Will Allen

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

Definitely not. After parting ways with a Super Bowl winning coach and purging the roster of older, high paid Free Agents, one word can sum up the 2009 Bucs: REBUILDING.

 

I look for this team to return to the good old days of the 1980’s when they were the “Putrid Pirates” as opposed to the “Pewter Pirates”.

Still have questions about: QB, WR, OL, DT, DE, LB, S, DB.

The key to their season:  Byron Leftwich emerging from camp and having the type of resurgence that Chad Pennington had in Miami last year.

 

Also, getting a significant contribution from all the young players on defense would go a long way in attempting to field a competitive team.

 

Best Case Scenario: 6 to 8 wins, no playoffs

Worst Case Scenario:  2 to 5 wins, no playoffs

What I expect: 4-12, no playoffs

 

 

4) New Orleans Saints

 

2008 Results: 8-8, 4th place NFCS, no playoffs

Key Additions: Malcom Jenkins, Jabari Greer, Dan Morgan, Heath Evans, Paul Spicer, Pierson Prioleau, Anthony Hargrove

 

Key Losses: David Patten, Deuce McAllistor, Aaron Stecker, Mark Campbell, Martin Grammatica, Josh Bullocks, Hollis Thomas

 

Have they improved from 2008 to 2009?

Three former Buffalo Bills highlight their off season additions and it’s pretty much playoffs or bust for the Saints in 2009 or a coaching change is likely imminent.

 

A top five NFL offense returns pretty much intact. If the defense can improve marginally it might be enough for a playoff spot but the question remains if an overhauled unit will improve in 2009.

 

They play the same beastly that the rest of their division does which includes the AFC and NFC East so a defensive improvement may not necessarily yield the results Payton and his staff are looking for.

 

Still have questions about: DB, Safety, LB, DE

The key to their season: Defense. Plain and simple.

 

Last year the offense proved they can score with the best of them, but unfortunately their defense gave up as many points as they scored which resulted in a .500 season.

 

Another potential roadblock is the pending suspensions of key defensive players, and for a team trying to establish a new defensive identity early on in the season, that could be a major problem.

 

Best Case Scenario: 9 to 12 wins, NFCS Title/ Wild card, deep playoff run

Worst Case Scenario: 6 to 8 wins, no playoffs

What I expect: 9-7, NFCS champion

 

As always, feel free to critique, discuss, flame, and offer your own analysis and insight…..

Coming soon, part 4: The Chiefs, Browns and where the Bills fit in to the equation

Breaking Down the Bills’ 2009 Schedule: Part One, AFC East

Definition of Improvement:

1: the act or process of improving
2 a: the state of being improved; especially: enhanced value or excellence b: an instance of such improvement: something that enhances value or excellence

Technically, every year, all 32 teams in the NFL “improve” because of free agency and the draft, yet only 12 will make the playoffs and the other 20 teams will be looking ahead to next year.  Some are left with many holes to fill, others are only a player or two away from taking that next step, and others are left wondering what went wrong.

A common theme we’ve heard this offseason from the media’s talking heads and “expert” NFL analysts is that the Buffalo Bills have gotten better (at least in some areas), but so has the rest of the AFC East. So that will negate the improvement on our end, making us destined to finish in last place again for a second consecutive season.

We are also led to believe that we play two extremely difficult divisions from the AFC South and NFC South in 2009, considering both sent two teams to the playoffs last year, and the worst team in the NFC South finished 8-8. Of course, all of this could easily end up being true, or it could easily end up being false. But that’s why they will line up and play their games this fall.

So I’ve decided to break down all the teams on the Buffalo Bills 2009 schedule and take a look at who really improved, who will maintain the status quo, and who took a step backwards.

In this first installment I will start with the AFC East division rivals:

1. New England Patriots

2008 Results: 11-5, second place AFCE, missed playoffs

Key Additions: Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway, Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, Greg Lewis, Al Johnson, Patrick Chung, Darius Butler

Key Losses: Matt Cassel, Rodney Harrison, Rosevelt Colvin, Heath Evans, Mike Vrabel, Ellis Hobbs

Have They Improved for 2009: Absolutely. The biggest boost to this team will be the return of Tom Brady, and even if he’s 75 percent, the Pats will be good enough to win it all in 2009.

Still Have Questions About: linebacker, offensive line depth, new offensive coordinator

The Key to Their Season: Tom Brady staying healthy and all of the new faces on defense gelling. Barring an atomic bomb being dropped on Boston, the Pats are still among the NFL’s elite franchises. I expect them to send a message to the rest of the NFL early.

Best Case Scenario: 11-16 wins, AFC East title and Super Bowl appearance/championship

Worst Case Scenario: 8-10 wins, miss playoffs

What I Expect: 13 wins, AFC East Title, AFC Championship appearance at least

 

2. Miami Dolphins

2008 Results: 11-5, AFC East Champion, third seed, first round loss at home to No. 6 Baltimore

Key Additions: Vontae Davis, Pat White, Gabril Wilson, Jake Grove, Jason Taylor

Key Losses: Al Johnson, Samon Satele, Vonnie Holiday, Renaldo Hill, Andre Goodman

Have They Improved for 2009: Most will tell you “yes” because Bill Parcells is still in the front office. But this is a team I look at as maintaining the status quo at best.

We are quick to forget this is a team that is one year removed from being a 1-15 squad, and if they get off to bad start in 2009, things could downhill fast in South Florida. Also, I do believe that last year’s miraculous turnaround was more of a product of Pennington’s and Joey Porter’s resurgences, as opposed to the new coaching staff.

Still Have Questions About: age of key defensive players, offensive line, secondary, QB, WR

The Key to Their Season: Chad Pennington is going to have to match and exceed his career-best 2009 numbers for this team to have a chance to win more than eight games given their schedule. Unfortunately, history has shown that he has never made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and typically follows up a good season with a bad/injury-riddled season.

I’ll go with the trend here. Also, if I’m Tony Sparano, I’m not banking on the wildcat to have the type of impact it did last year in 2009.

Best Case Scenario: 9-10 wins, possible AFC wild card

Worst Case Scenario: 4-8 wins, miss playoffs

What I Expect: 7-9, miss playoffs

 

3. New York Jets

2008 Results: 9-7, third place AFCE, missed playoffs

Key Additions: Mark Sanchez, Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, Jim Leonard, Rex Ryan

Key Losses: Brett Favre, Eric Mangini, Lavernious Coles, Chris Baker, Mike Nugent, Ty Law, Abram Elam

Have They Improved for 2009: Rex Ryan will try to do what Mike Smith did in Atlanta last year, but it will be a tough feat given the conference and division he’s in.

Defensively, I believe the Jets improved on paper, but can they avert another second half collapse? Offensively, they will be hard-pressed to improve or even keep up with what last year’s Favre-led squad did.

Plus, if Thomas Jones holds out, that will not be a good thing for a team looking to lean on their running game in 2009.

Still Have Questions About: age of key defensive players, WR, special teams, QB, new head coach and staff

The Key to Their Season: Aging defensive players staying healthy and producing at a high level. Also, finding a QB that can be a bus driver in a run-oriented offense.

Best Case Scenario: 8-10 wins, possible wild card

Worst Case Scenario: 4-9 wins, miss playoffs

What I Expect: 6-10, miss playoffs

 

As always, feel free to critique, discuss, flame, and offer your own analysis/insight.

Coming soon: Part Two, AFC South breakdown…

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