Super Bowl Predictions: Why the AFC Will Win

With the playoffs beginning this weekend and the Super Bowl only a month away, it’s time for some fearless predictions. 

Yes, I understand that we don’t even know who is playing yet—heck, we haven’t even played the first playoff game—but if we waited until we knew who was in the game, it wouldn’t quite be a “fearless” prediction now would it?  It would be more like “kind of brave, but really a little scared” prediction.

Besides, if college football can claim a national champion based on the whims of those who don’t even play, then there can’t be much harm in this little prognostication.

So, with that said, here’s my prediction: The Super Bowl champion will come from the AFC.

Okay, perhaps that was too much of a build up for something that has a 50 percent chance of being correct, but looking deeper, those odds are probably better.

First off, since John Elway’s Broncos ended the NFC’s famous 13-year championship run in 1998, the AFC has gone 9-3 in the big game with the NFC’s only wins being the incredible one-yard-short finale between the Rams and Titans, the Buccaneer’s dominant performance over the Raiders, and the Giants monumental upset over the Patriots.

I know what you’re saying. The results of the past cannot be used to predict future activities as they are statistically independent events and therefore any correlation would be purely coincidental.

Fair enough. 

Let’s focus on this year.

First off, the best team of the year was without question from the AFC.

Peyton Manning may ultimately go down as the best quarterback in the history of football and arguably just had his best year.

And if I’m saying that as a Texans fan, it has to be true. Hell, that guy’s been ruining my weekends since he demolished Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl back in my freshman year.

If that doesn’t make the Colts the absolute favorite to win the Super Bowl, it’s only because the hottest team in football might rank above them.

The Chargers have won 11 in a row and have the quarterback who will probably be considered the best in the league in a few years. They also have a receiving corp that could pass for a decent sized basketball team.

Conversely, the top two seeds in the NFC, the Saints and Vikings are both entering the playoffs with what you might call the opposite of momentum.

The Saints have lost three straight, including a game to the then 2-12 Bucs. 

The Vikings on the other hand have lost three out of their last five.

Before you mention the Colts two-game losing streak, remember that the Colts had secured everything there was to secure, history not withstanding, while the Saints and Vikings still had something to play for.

In fact, the hottest team in the the NFC right now is the Cowboys, who haven’t won a playoff game since the Macarena topped the Billboard 100.

Still, if we take recent history as an indicator, the Cowboys and Packers give the NFC it’s best chance of success this year, but they will both face difficult tests before they can even make it to week two of the playoffs.

Back to the AFC, though, the three seed is comprised of a three-time champ, and the four seed is the emotional pick of the season.

The five and six seeds both finished the season strong and finished with a combined three losses since Thanksgiving.

Now, obviously the playoffs by their nature are unpredictable.

The Giants from two years ago won as a five seed and the Cardinals went last year as a four.

That’s why we love them.

But it wouldn’t be that surprising to see any of the NFC teams advance to the Super Bowl which means none of them can ride the “nobody believed in us” train all the way to Miami.

In fact the only team that could probably pull that off is the AFC dwelling Jets (although in the spirit of full disclosure, I don’t actually believe in them).

Ultimately, though, the simple truth is this: the best teams in the AFC are likely to play their best, but the best teams in the NFC are likely to struggle.

The NFL’s Super Bowl history is pretty much broken out into three parts.

In the first fifteen years, the AFC was dominant.  The following sixteen were owned by the NFC.

The AFC has been the stronger conference over the last twelve and that dominance is likely to extend one more year.

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Houston Texans’ Historic Season Ends in Disappointment

And there it is. Another Texan season ends in Week 17. 

That was anti-climatic. 

I really struggled with what to write about. I mean, there will be plenty of time to talk about what went right and what went wrong.

We will spend countless hours talking about what next season means to Kubiak now that McNair said he will be back.

We will analyze every option in the running game from Slaton to Foster to Randy Hickey.

We will talk about problems with our secondary, and likely come up with a top 10 list of why Dunta Robinson should shake his dreads for a new team.

And, of course, we will spend more time studying this year’s draft than we did studying in high school and college combined.

Right now, though, all I can think of is how close we came to finally breaking the drought.

I keep telling myself not to think of the near misses or individual plays that cost us so many games as it will only be more painful.

Then I think, “Screw it.” Maybe it’ll be therapeutic.

Besides, as the saying goes: Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

As we look back on this season there is one theme which resonates over everything: There are no insignificant plays.

How many times did we look back on a game and think, “Well, we may have blown it at the last minute, but we can’t really blame it on one play?” 

That may be, but any one of those plays and we could be previewing another game rather than performing another season autopsy.

I’m not just referring to the four last second plays that could have tied games.

Remember the offensive pass interference on Kevin Walter right before Chris Brown fumbled in the end zone at the end of the first Jaguar game?

Or how about the pick six that Schaub threw in the fourth quarter against Arizona.

Then there was the Moats fumble at the end of the first half at Indianapolis (not to mention the delay in getting the next play off before the two-minute warning, thus allowing the Colts to challenge the play).

We can also talk about the pass interference in the second Colts game, or the inability to tackle Vince Young on any of a number of third down scrambles on that fateful Monday night.

I’m sure that as you read this you are probably thinking of at least five plays that I’ve missed.

The fact is, any one of those plays might have turned this season around and given us what we’ve been waiting for for 16 years.

Kubiak must not forget that.

Not to mourn another season lost, but rather to understand that there are no insignificant plays.

Now, I’m sure that if you were to mention this to Kubiak he would shake his head as if you’d just said that the sky is blue

The players would similarly acknowledge this.

Somehow, though, they missed it when it counted.

Be it focus, concentration, preparation, or whatever, this team missed the playoffs not because of physical shortcomings, but because of mental ones.

That’s what’s so maddening about the whole thing.

This was supposed to be the “next year” we’ve been waiting for at the end of the previous years. 

Yes, there are silver linings—like how we’re still the youngest team in the league with a chance to be great—but at some point that potential must be realized.

Even though this team did things no Texans team has ever done, we should not celebrate this as a victory.

It’s time to raise expectations.

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Ten Fearless Houston Texans-Related Predictions for the Next Decade

About now you’re probably inundated with all sorts of “Best of the Decade” articles.

You know, stuff like “10 Best Thursday Night Arena League Games” and “10 Best Tuesday Afternoon Kansas City Royals Games Started by a Guy Named Roy”.

Well, most of those lists have one thing in common: they try to paint a pretty picture of the decade as if most if it didn’t suck.

This is not one of those articles.

Why not?

Because let’s be honest, if your a Texan fan, the past decade did suck.

But rest assured loyal Houston fans, there is hope. This is the holiday season after all.

Instead of focusing on the ten least crappy moments of the last ten years, let’s look forward and make ten fearless Houston Texans related predictions for the next decade.

Begin Slideshow

Ten Fearless Houston Texans-Related Predictions for the Next Decade

About now you’re probably inundated with all sorts of “Best of the Decade” articles.

You know, stuff like “10 Best Thursday Night Arena League Games” and “10 Best Tuesday Afternoon Kansas City Royals Games Started by a Guy Named Roy”.

Well, most of those lists have one thing in common: they try to paint a pretty picture of the decade as if most if it didn’t suck.

This is not one of those articles.

Why not?

Because let’s be honest, if your a Texan fan, the past decade did suck.

But rest assured loyal Houston fans, there is hope. This is the holiday season after all.

Instead of focusing on the ten least crappy moments of the last ten years, let’s look forward and make ten fearless Houston Texans related predictions for the next decade.

Begin Slideshow

Texans’ Playoff Hopes Hanging By a Thread, But Still Hanging

For a few weeks, I was writing a weekly “Houston Texans Playoff Outlook” column before the team decided to party like it was 2005 and blow four straight divisional games,  essentially emasculating all post-season hopes in the process.

With three weeks to go, however, the team is still technically alive in the hunt for a playoff berth—even if it is one of those “Ray Liotta at the end of Hannibal” types of alive.

So let’s dive back into our playoff scenarios and see what kind of Christmas miracles we need to be praying for.

When we last left , I was pretty much calling for a 10-6 season for a legitimate shot at making the post-season and I had identified the Steelers and Broncos as the primary threats to our Wild Card hopes. 

Well, so much for that idea.  Although in fairness, I could not have possibly been expected to predict that Pittsburgh would lose to Oakland, Kansas City, and Cleveland in upcoming weeks—hell, I still don’t really believe it happened.

Obviously a 10-6 record is now impossible for the Texans, so for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Texans win out and go 9-7 because the probability of us making the playoffs at 8-8 are about the same as Pittsburgh losing to Oakland, Kansas City, and Cleveland in the span of three weeks.

Or maybe worse than that.  Let’s move on.

Starting in the AFC East, we’re currently sitting behind Miami and New York for the Wild Card (I’m still giving New England the title, but that is no longer as clear cut as it was a few weeks ago). 

The Dolphins have a tough schedule remaining with games against Tennessee, Houston, and Pittsburgh.  Based on our earlier premise that the Texans are winning out, that means the Dolphins are losing that game and would have to beat both the Titans and Steelers to finish 9-7.  The Texans would own the tie breaker by virtue of the head to head victory.

In other words, if the Texans win out, they will finish ranked higher than the Dolphins.

The Jets also have a difficult schedule with games against Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. 

The Jets hold the tie breaker over the Texans, so the Texans have to hope that the Colts and Bengals both play to win in those games.  New York would have to go 1-2 in order for Houston to proceed.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Mark Sanchez’ knee, and how strongly Atlanta played in Matt Ryan’s absence, a 1-2 record is a legitimate possibility.

Moving to the North, we can pretty much give the division to the Bengals.

That leaves Pittsburgh and Baltimore as teams Texans fans need to keep an eye on.

The reeling Steelers have a difficult game against the Packers this weekend before Baltimore comes to town in two weeks.  They then finish up at Miami. 

That’s a very difficult schedule and if they lose even one of those games, they would end up behind the alleged 9-7 Texans.

Baltimore, on the other hand has a much easier schedule.  Aside from the game at Pittsburgh, they have Chicago at home and a game at Oakland.  Furthermore, they are one game up on Houston in the standings and hold the tie breaker. 

The Ravens would have to finish 1-2 in order to finish behind the Texans—not out of the question, but so far this is our least likely scenario.

Now things get tough. 

Because of the Texans’ pathetic play within the division, they lose the tie breaker against both Jacksonville and Tennessee. 

Jacksonville would have to go 1-2 in its remaining games, which is not impossible, considering they have to face Indianapolis and New England in the next two weeks.

Tennessee would only have to lose once, however, to eliminate their chances.  With upcoming games against Miami and San Diego, that too is a legitimate possibility.

Lastly, if we look at the AFC West, the only threat to the Texans’ Wild Card hopes are the 8-5 Broncos. 

The Broncos hold a 6-4 conference record and the only way they could end the season tied with a 9-7 Houston team is if they go 1-2 down the stretch. 

Denver would own the tie breaker unless if by some miracle, that victory was against Philadelphia and they lost to Kansas City and Oakland—something that we now know is possible.  The teams would then have to go to the third tie breaker:  record in common games, with a minimum of four.

The Broncos and Texans will have played four common opponents in Cincinnati, Oakland, New England, and Indianapolis. 

In order to find ourselves in this remote possibility, Denver would have to lose next week to Oakland which would give them a 3-2 record in these games.  Houston will have to have won against New England in Week 17 and would also then have a 3-2 record in these games.

On to the fourth tie breaker: strength of victory.

This incredibly cool sounding tie breaker means that we need to calculate the winning percentage of opponents each team has beaten.  Whoever has beaten the opponents with the highest winning percentage wins. 

If we take the current winning percentage of what would be the nine victories for each team, Denver would win by a score of .513 to .436.

Sadly, the Texans stand little chance here as they have only won a single game so far against an opponent who is currently over .500.  While they will have had to win against New England and Miami in order to find themselves in this situation, that gain would be greatly offset by adding the Rams and their paltry record to the list.

Denver, on the other hand, already has big victories against Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, San Diego, and the New York Giants.  They will also have a victory against Philadelphia in this scenario. 

So ultimately, this long-winded walk down tie breaker lane can be simplified down to this:  the only way the Texans can finish ahead of the Broncos in the Wild Card standings is if the Broncos lose out. 

Now, as exciting as this discussion was, it is greatly overshadowed by our enormous premise that the Texans have to win out.

The team can no longer afford even a single slip up and even then will need some serious help. 

When you break down each possibility, however, the only one that is truly a stretch is the one that has the Texans finishing ahead of the Broncos.

The greatest hurdle now is the Ravens. 

They play the Bears this weekend and a Chicago victory would be a big boon to our post-season dreams.

So get your Raven hating clothes out of the closet (I assume everyone has some) and let’s pull towards the playoffs!

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Texans Biggest Opponent this Week is Not Jacksonville

I live in a small coastal town in Florida and there’s a large inter-coastal river with a bunch of islands.

Every now and then, we take my friend’s sailboat and go camping on one of the islands.

A couple of years ago, we decided to sail to the neighboring county and try a different set of islands.

The plan was beautiful.  We would sail down for eight hours, set up camp, party all night, and then have another eight hour sail back home the next day.

I mean, could you possibly ask for a better weekend?  Even the weather was perfect.

It turns out, however, that our plan had one major flaw.

You see, we decided that for this trip, beer would take up too much space and we would need to bring too much ice, so we brought a bunch of whiskey instead.

I think you see where I’m going with this.

While the first part of our trip was everything we could have hoped for, the subsequent sail home turned into eight hours of wavy hell.

I normally love being on the water, but on that day, I just wanted to jump overboard and let the sweet grip of death take away my pain.

Week 13 of the NFL season feels eerily familiar.

Everything was going so well only a short while ago.  The Texans were in second place in the division, playing well, and had a real shot of making the playoffs.

Now, while we should be enjoying the marvel that is NFL football, I just get a headache.

Okay, maybe it’s not quite that bad.

The team still has a shot at the playoffs, right?

All we have to do is win out!

Hey, it’s possible.

And I’m sure that between now and Sunday, I’ll find some way to convince myself of that.

There’s no question that on Sunday I’ll be jumping up and down and screaming at my TV with all the passion and excitement that I do every week.

And we definitely have a chance to beat the Jaguars, right?

A few weeks ago, I stopped writing technical previews of the upcoming Texans games as we got to know more and more about both the Texans and their opponents.

Furthermore, we were staring right into the teeth of the schedule—four straight divisional games.

We are all familiar with the fact that Indianapolis is undefeated and that Peyton Manning is dangerous.

You don’t need me to write that Chris Johnson is a threat and not to discount Vince Young when he’s playing back home.

This week, we know that containing Maurice Jones-Drew and keeping David Garrard in the pocket are the technical keys to victory.

So what?

I can write, “This is a huge game for the Texans,” a hundred times on the chalkboard, but for the fourth game in a row, the biggest opponent is wearing steel blue helmets.

We know they have the players and the ability to win.

We’ve seen them dominate the best team in the league—just not for sixty minutes.

So far the team is saying all the right things about the attitude in the locker room and about their outlook for this game.

They really seem to believe that they still have a shot at the playoffs, and if I didn’t have such a headache, I might even agree with them.

Right now, though, I’m still feeling the effects of all those shots of Texans I’ve taken recently.

Whether or not I start to recover depends on whether or not the Texans can overcome their missed opportunities and their inability to meet expectations.

Do the players feel the same hangover?

Does the rocking of the boat make them feel like jumping?

We won’t know that answer until after halftime on Sunday.

If the Texans come out scorching hot or ice cold means nothing.

The questions will be answered at some point during an inevitable, critical second half moment when Matt Schaub drops back to pass and either confidently throws a key completion or meekly tosses a pass into triple coverage.

We’re loading up the boat for the return trip and there’s still a chance that this trip lives up to the lofty expectations we had at the beginning.

I don’t feel to confident and am struggling to garner too much excitement, but we’ve come this far and have no choice but to fight and follow through to the finish.

What’s that they say about the hair of the dog?

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Houston Texans Gear Up For Playoff Run. No, Really.

Are you a Texans fan?

Have you mentioned the word playoffs? 

Try it.  It feels dirty. 

But with just over half the season gone, the Texans are actually in position to possibly make a playoff run.

We’re sitting here at the much deserved bye week at 5-4—a record from which we could just as easily springboard toward the playoffs or crash back to the depths of mediocrity.

Looking forward at the remaining schedule, there are two games which we should absolutely win (vs Seattle and @ St. Louis), three games which are winnable, but may be tight (vs Tenn, @ Jacksonville, and @ Miami), and two games which may be really tough (vs. Indi and vs NE).

Working backwards, I think it’s not unreasonable to think we may go 1-1 against Indy and NE. We clearly could have won at Indianapolis and were it not for the crashing and burning of one Rosencopter last season, we would have beaten Indy pretty convincingly at home last season.

The Patriots, on the other hand at worst will be 11-4 at that juncture (if we give them losses @ Indy and @ New Orleans) and could be better. With any luck, they’ll be resting their starters in anticipation of the playoffs and we can pull that one out. We also benefit from the fact that both of these games are at home.

The three games in the middle category are really going to be the crucial ones on the schedule.

The Tennessee game is very winnable because a) we have two weeks to game plan, b) we have played very well in prime time games recently, c) our defense has improved drastically since we last played them, d) Dominique Barber won’t be playing.

Jacksonville is another game we should have a good chance of winning considering we historically have played well there and again, our run defense has improved drastically since we last played them.

Lastly, we should have a good chance in Miami considering we’ve never lost against them and again our aforementioned improved run defense should be able to force first year starter Chad Henne to win the game.

Considering all this, we should be able to pull off a 2-1 record in these games. Pair that with a 2-0 record against Seattle and St. Louis, and suddenly we’re looking at a 10-6 season and a shot at the wild-card.

But a 10-6 season without the wild-card would be like when you order a Negra Modelo at a Mexican restaurant and they put a lime in it. Yeah, your happy you have a beer, but there’s still going to be that sour taste in your mouth.

So let’s dive even deeper and see what else has to happen for us to get that nice crisp uncontaminated beer.

The reality of the situation is that there’s virtually no way the Texans are going to catch the Colts barring Peyton Manning suddenly transforming into Ryan Leaf, so that leaves us fighting for one of two spots. 

For the sake of discussion, I’m eliminating all teams currently under .500 from playoff contention.  The Dolphins are probably the only team with a shot, but that would require them to go 7-1 the rest of the way just to get to 10-6 which is the mark I think is going to be necessary for a wild-card.

Note:  I actually heard someone on the radio suggest that they weren’t writing off Tennessee for the playoffs yet.  If they lose even one game against Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, Miami, or San Diego, they’re out.  No chance.

That leaves the Jets as the only team in the AFC with a shot. 

They’ve been struggling lately, losing four of their last five, and would have to win six of their remaining eight to get to that 10 win mark.  With games against New England, Indianapolis, Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, and lead by a rookie quarterback, that’s just not going to happen. 

Skipping to the AFC West, either Denver or San Diego is going to get in as division champ, and the other will be fighting for the wild-card.  If Denver can go .500 against San Diego, NY Giants, Indianapolis and Philadelphia, they’ll go 12-4 and win the division. 

San Diego has a tougher remaining schedule.  They’ve got three bunnies left on the schedule, but that only gets them to eight wins.  If they can go 2-3 in those remaining games, though, they’ll hit the 10 win mark.  Those games are against Philly, Indy, Dallas, Cincy, and Tennessee.  They could definitely do better than 2-3 in those games though, so they’re a serious threat.

That leaves us with the AFC North.  Starting at the bottom, the Ravens are at 4-4, having lost four of their last five, and have some tough remaining games with Indy, Pittsburgh twice, Chicago and @ Green Bay.  That would be tough for a team that’s playing well, but with their recent struggles, they’re going to have a hard time making the push.

The Bengals have an easier schedule with games against Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and the Jets.  Even if they lose the rest of their games, winning those puts them at 11-5.  There other games are at Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, and at San Diego.  Winning just one of those pretty much seals the deal. 

The Steelers also sit at 6-2 right now, and are probably playing some of the best football in the league right now.  They have a slightly tougher schedule than the Bengals, but I think they’ll finish stronger.  Rashard Mendenhall seems to be their solution at running back and that’s helping to hide their biggest weakness—their offensive line. 

If we sum this all up, I would bet that one of the wildcard spots is going to come from the AFC North and the other is pretty much going to be a battle between us and the Chargers. 

That’s right.  The Texans are in position to possibly make the playoffs.

It still feels weird to say that, but it’s true.  They just have to keep playing good football. 

Cutting down on turnovers and penalties would help too. 

And a running game.  That would be nice.

Ok, so it’s not going to be easy.  But, there is in fact a chance.  And a not-totally-terrible one at that.

So let’s band together and root against the Chargers.  Uh… I mean, for the Texans.

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Texans Visit Colts For Their Biggest Divisional Game Ever

This weekend’s clash against the Colts may just be the biggest game in Houston Texans history.

Now, when the biggest game in team history comes in week 9 of the regular season, it probably says more about the team history than it does about the game, but for Houston fans this is the first time since Warren Moon donned Columbia Blue that the team is playing a game that legitimately may mean more than personal pride.

The Texans have ridden an explosive offense and an improved defense to three consecutive victories and are in position to solidify their standing in the playoff race if they can win this weekend at Indianapolis.

Piece of cake, right?

I mean, Indianapolis is only 7-0 with a quarterback who may end up going down as the best to ever play the game, and who is playing possibly the best football of his career.

And who cares if the Texans have never won in Indianapolis and have only ever beaten the Colts once—a three point victory in December of 2006.

This is a different Texans team and there’s got to be a first time for everything doesn’t there?

The truth is, regardless of history, the Texans are in better position both in the standings and with respect to ending their Indianapolis drought than at any other point in franchise history.

But they’ll still be facing long odds this weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The discussion of any game against the Colts must start with Peyton Manning.

Manning has absolutely dominated the Texans in their short history and the Texans’ secondary, while improved, still causes fans to collectively hold their breath every time an opposing quarterback drops back to pass.

The Texans currently rank 23 in passing yards allowed, even though they’ve only faced two quarterbacks who rank in the top 20 in quarterback rating (Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner).

The silver lining here is that against both Arizona and Cincinnati, they were able to make half time adjustments and shut down both offenses after half time.

Against Indianapolis, however, that may end up being too little too late.

Manning ranks among the league leaders in just about every passing category despite losing one of his most reliable receivers in the off-season, losing his number two receiver in the first week of the season, and having already gone through his bye week.

Part of the reason for Manning’s gaudy stats, however, is the lack of support he has gotten from his running game as he’s on track to set new personal highs in pass attempts and completions.

Joseph Addai has struggled this season as his best play was last weekend when he was doing his best Peyton Manning impersonation.

Rookie Donald Brown has looked good in limited duty so far, but he missed last week’s game against San Francisco with a shoulder injury, although he should return this week.  How much playing time he gets, however, will be a question as he has only been getting a handful of carries each game.

The Texans have employed an aggressive defensive scheme so far this season which could end up being dangerous this weekend as Manning is famous for his quick decision making.  He’s only been sacked five times this season—three of them coming last week against the 49ers—and it’s mostly a tribute to his ability to get the ball out quickly.

Unlike in previous meetings, however, the Texans will counter this week with an offense nearly as lethal as the Colts.

Matt Schaub is becoming one of the elite quarterbacks in the country and has a bevy of weapons at his disposal.

Even with the loss of Owen Daniels, the team still has arguably the best wide receiver corps in the league led by the unstoppable Andre Johnson. 

Kevin Walter can run precise routes and has reliable hands, and even Jacoby Jones is quietly becoming a serious down-field threat.

The Colts have a good defensive backfield led by Bob Sanders, but since the Jets in week one, no team has successfully stopped this offense from producing.

The real key here is going to lie in the trenches.

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are probably the best pair of rushing ends in football, and if they can put pressure on Schaub, they may be able to disrupt the passing game and force a few turnovers.

The Texans can help themselves by running the ball.  The Colts are only middle of the pack in run defense and if the Texans can figure out how to distribute the ball and not fumble, they might be able to control the clock and slow the pass rush.

Perhaps Houston’s best place to look for inspiration, however, is in last year’s games against the Colts.

While the Texans lost both games, they were in position to potentially win both before Sage Rosenfels ended both threats with turnovers.

This year, there will be no Rosencopter and no late game interceptions, so if the Texans can play like they did last year, they should at least have a chance to pull this out.

If they can, then the biggest game in franchise history may just be later this season.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Texans-49ers: Houston Won, So Why Am I Still Nervous?

Sometimes I need to remind myself not to be too negative.

I mean, we won right?

It’s hard to win in the NFL.  Shouldn’t we all be excited after a win?

Still, I didn’t wake up today with that exciting feeling that you get after a solid victory.

I wonder if Arizona fans felt this way after week five?

Let me start, however, with the things that I am very happy about.

First off, the run defense was fantastic.  I’m probably more excited about this than any other aspect of the team right now.

Yes, the passing game is stronger, but only four measly weeks ago, we weren’t just wondering if the run defense was the worst in the league, we were wondering if it was one of the worst of all time.

Now, we are coming off back-to-back weeks shutting down stellar running backs. 

Sure, Frank Gore may have been out for a few weeks, but he’s still a major threat running the ball. And did you notice what Cedric Benson did yesterday?

Cedric Benson was leading the league in rushing after five weeks before we shut him down last week. He rebounded yesterday to the tune of 189 yards and a touchdown, and he again leads the league in rushing yards.

Second, the passing game is still unstoppable.  Schaub leads the league in yards, touchdowns, has a 104.4 passer rating, and has only thrown five interceptions. 

I’ve heard some say that he is bailed out by his receivers making great catches and recording a lot of yards after the catch, but shouldn’t we then discount Tom Brady for all of Randy Moss’s acrobatic catches?

The fact is, Matt Schaub is playing at an elite level this year.  Whether he starts entering the discussion of elite players will depend on his sustaining this level of play, but after seven weeks he has to be considered among the best this season.

So why am I still concerned?

Well, there were three things that happened yesterday which make me extremely nervous.

The first is the fact that Steve Slaton fumbled two more times.

Yes, I know the box score only shows one, but just because he was ruled down on the other, doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to hold on to the ball.  It is possible—even adviseable—to hold on to the ball after your knee touches the ground.

The announcers and Slaton were talking about how it’s his fourth lost fumble of the year, but even that doesn’t fully explain the extent of the situation.

Slaton also has two other fumbles that were recovered by the Texans and two that were called back after replay.  That’s nine times in seven games where he has lost a grip on the ball.

Even more disturbing is that this has been going on for more than a month, so he has been working to fix it, but failing miserably. They must try something different.

A few years ago, Tiki Barber had a fumbling issue and started carrying the ball higher.  He had the ability to be an elite back, but until he made that change, he could not be relied upon to consistently carry the ball. 

That adjustment allowed the team to rely on him in critical situations and ultimately made him a more complete (and more wealthy) running back.

Perhaps Slaton needs to do something more drastic than just trying harder.

The second item that gave me heartburn over this win was our inability to adjust to San Francisco’s offensive changes.

To start, I have to give supreme credit to Mike Singletary with regards to completely changing the team’s offensive philosophy at half time.

Changing quarterbacks and moving to more of a spread offense took some serious guts.

If it doesn’t work, he leaves himself open to some serious second guessing and, more importantly, may have led to the demise of Shaun Hill’s confidence. It could have created a major roadblock that could derail the 49ers season.

Even if it does work, Singletary opens himself up to an endless slew of questioning about who will quarterback the team in the future.  If he re-installs Hill and he struggles, the calls will come for Alex Smith. 

So I have to credit coach Singletary for having the intestinal fortitude to make the change midstream.

That said, the Texans’ response was putrid.

I’ll admit that Alex Smith was the number one pick in the draft because he has the ability to make plays, but he was also beat out by an undrafted free agent.

Smith hadn’t thrown a regular season pass since November 12, 2007 and hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass since October 28 of the same year. The fact that he directed three touchdown drives in one half suggests that while our run defense has improved, our pass defense remains a question.

The Texans’ pass rush struggled to put pressure on Smith in the second half, and when they did, he was able to avoid it. 

Furthermore, the coverage down field made it easy on Smith with the team failing to provide tight coverage on the talented San Francisco receivers. 

But this is nothing new to Texans fans as we have watched the team struggle to find consistency in the secondary for many years.  There has been a lot of turnover in that area, but the team has not been able to shut down opposing quarterbacks.

In fact, I am already beginning to enter my annual paranoia about facing Peyton Manning in two weeks.

The last thing that has prevented me from garnering much enjoyment from this victory is the injury to Andre Johnson. 

I’ve mentioned many times that I feel that Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in football today, and perhaps no receiver in the league is as valuable to his team’s passing game.

Even on days when Johnson doesn’t register 10 catches and two touchdowns, he opens things up for Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter by the amount of coverage that he demands.

He can go deep with speed as easily as he can go across the middle with authority.

Without Johnson, the offense stalls.  We saw this two years ago when he missed seven games and the Texans went 2-5.

Now, I have heard nothing to suggest that he will miss any time, but he’s among the toughest players in the NFL, so when he leaves the field, you know he’s in pain.

Hopefully my concerns over Andre Johnson are unfounded, but the rest of my fears are real.

The Texans have won two in a row and have an excellent chance next week to push their record to 5-3.

For the first time in history, Texans fans have a chance to look at their position half way through the season and think that they can make the playoffs.

And perhaps that is why I’m more concerned this season than I have been in seasons past—there’s finally something at stake.

These are all fixable things (although more talent in the secondary wouldn’t hurt), and if corrected, we may finally see Texans football in January.

But maybe this isn’t the time to worry about those things.  Maybe I should just deal with that later and enjoy the fact that we escaped with a victory.

After all, if the Texans do make the playoffs, I’ll have plenty to be nervous about then.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Texans-49ers: Houston Won, So Why Am I Still Nervous?

Sometimes I need to remind myself not to be too negative.

I mean, we won right?

It’s hard to win in the NFL.  Shouldn’t we all be excited after a win?

Still, I didn’t wake up today with that exciting feeling that you get after a solid victory.

I wonder if Arizona fans felt this way after week five?

Let me start, however, with the things that I am very happy about.

First off, the run defense was fantastic.  I’m probably more excited about this than any other aspect of the team right now.

Yes, the passing game is stronger, but only four measly weeks ago, we weren’t just wondering if the run defense was the worst in the league, we were wondering if it was one of the worst of all time.

Now, we are coming off back-to-back weeks shutting down stellar running backs. 

Sure, Frank Gore may have been out for a few weeks, but he’s still a major threat running the ball. And did you notice what Cedric Benson did yesterday?

Cedric Benson was leading the league in rushing after five weeks before we shut him down last week. He rebounded yesterday to the tune of 189 yards and a touchdown, and he again leads the league in rushing yards.

Second, the passing game is still unstoppable.  Schaub leads the league in yards, touchdowns, has a 104.4 passer rating, and has only thrown five interceptions. 

I’ve heard some say that he is bailed out by his receivers making great catches and recording a lot of yards after the catch, but shouldn’t we then discount Tom Brady for all of Randy Moss’s acrobatic catches?

The fact is, Matt Schaub is playing at an elite level this year.  Whether he starts entering the discussion of elite players will depend on his sustaining this level of play, but after seven weeks he has to be considered among the best this season.

So why am I still concerned?

Well, there were three things that happened yesterday which make me extremely nervous.

The first is the fact that Steve Slaton fumbled two more times.

Yes, I know the box score only shows one, but just because he was ruled down on the other, doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to hold on to the ball.  It is possible—even adviseable—to hold on to the ball after your knee touches the ground.

The announcers and Slaton were talking about how it’s his fourth lost fumble of the year, but even that doesn’t fully explain the extent of the situation.

Slaton also has two other fumbles that were recovered by the Texans and two that were called back after replay.  That’s nine times in seven games where he has lost a grip on the ball.

Even more disturbing is that this has been going on for more than a month, so he has been working to fix it, but failing miserably. They must try something different.

A few years ago, Tiki Barber had a fumbling issue and started carrying the ball higher.  He had the ability to be an elite back, but until he made that change, he could not be relied upon to consistently carry the ball. 

That adjustment allowed the team to rely on him in critical situations and ultimately made him a more complete (and more wealthy) running back.

Perhaps Slaton needs to do something more drastic than just trying harder.

The second item that gave me heartburn over this win was our inability to adjust to San Francisco’s offensive changes.

To start, I have to give supreme credit to Mike Singletary with regards to completely changing the team’s offensive philosophy at half time.

Changing quarterbacks and moving to more of a spread offense took some serious guts.

If it doesn’t work, he leaves himself open to some serious second guessing and, more importantly, may have led to the demise of Shaun Hill’s confidence. It could have created a major roadblock that could derail the 49ers season.

Even if it does work, Singletary opens himself up to an endless slew of questioning about who will quarterback the team in the future.  If he re-installs Hill and he struggles, the calls will come for Alex Smith. 

So I have to credit coach Singletary for having the intestinal fortitude to make the change midstream.

That said, the Texans’ response was putrid.

I’ll admit that Alex Smith was the number one pick in the draft because he has the ability to make plays, but he was also beat out by an undrafted free agent.

Smith hadn’t thrown a regular season pass since November 12, 2007 and hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass since October 28 of the same year. The fact that he directed three touchdown drives in one half suggests that while our run defense has improved, our pass defense remains a question.

The Texans’ pass rush struggled to put pressure on Smith in the second half, and when they did, he was able to avoid it. 

Furthermore, the coverage down field made it easy on Smith with the team failing to provide tight coverage on the talented San Francisco receivers. 

But this is nothing new to Texans fans as we have watched the team struggle to find consistency in the secondary for many years.  There has been a lot of turnover in that area, but the team has not been able to shut down opposing quarterbacks.

In fact, I am already beginning to enter my annual paranoia about facing Peyton Manning in two weeks.

The last thing that has prevented me from garnering much enjoyment from this victory is the injury to Andre Johnson. 

I’ve mentioned many times that I feel that Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in football today, and perhaps no receiver in the league is as valuable to his team’s passing game.

Even on days when Johnson doesn’t register 10 catches and two touchdowns, he opens things up for Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter by the amount of coverage that he demands.

He can go deep with speed as easily as he can go across the middle with authority.

Without Johnson, the offense stalls.  We saw this two years ago when he missed seven games and the Texans went 2-5.

Now, I have heard nothing to suggest that he will miss any time, but he’s among the toughest players in the NFL, so when he leaves the field, you know he’s in pain.

Hopefully my concerns over Andre Johnson are unfounded, but the rest of my fears are real.

The Texans have won two in a row and have an excellent chance next week to push their record to 5-3.

For the first time in history, Texans fans have a chance to look at their position half way through the season and think that they can make the playoffs.

And perhaps that is why I’m more concerned this season than I have been in seasons past—there’s finally something at stake.

These are all fixable things (although more talent in the secondary wouldn’t hurt), and if corrected, we may finally see Texans football in January.

But maybe this isn’t the time to worry about those things.  Maybe I should just deal with that later and enjoy the fact that we escaped with a victory.

After all, if the Texans do make the playoffs, I’ll have plenty to be nervous about then.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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