Previewing the Cleveland Browns’ Offseason

The Mike Holmgren era officially began in Berea today and the next few weeks will probably be a dynamic time for the Browns organization. Holmgren will probably make a decision regarding Eric Mangini in the upcoming days. He also must hire a GM and build a scouting department for the draft and free agency.

I am a staunch supporter of keeping Mangini. I think he has changed the team culture and proven to the players that they can win against more talented teams by playing smart disciplined football. I certainly understand if Holmgren chooses to move on with a new head coach.

Regardless, the Browns organization and team will be quite different when they take the field next year.

Without speculating on the Mangini situation or the possible GM candidates, I predict the following things happening in the offseason.

1. Brian Daboll fired

Holmgren, an offensive-minded guru, will want to bring in a coach to run a West coast style offense. Daboll runs a ball-control, run-first offense. Even if Mangini stays, this will most likely happen.

2. Keep Rob Ryan

The Browns went from 17 sacks a year ago to 40 sacks this season. They also played with fire and passion down the stretch. The players believe in Ryan, and he is popular with the fans.

Ryan has experience with almost every form of defense and can easily switch to a 4-3 if required.

3. Jim Zorn hired as offensive coordinator

Zorn’s recent unemployment and Holmgren’s need for a coordinator are too convenient. This also leads me to my next point…

4. Sign restricted free agent Jason Campbell

Jason Campbell has run the West coast in Washington under Jim Zorn for several years now. This season, he passed for 3600 yards and 20 touchdowns. He completed 64.5 percent of his passes. His 86.4 QB rating was 15th in the league and ahead of both Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

He went most the year without Chris Cooley, his favorite target, and with an oft-injured and aging Clinton Portis.

5. Draft Joe Haden

I still think Sam Bradford would be an excellent draft choice, but I believe that Shanahan will use the fifth pick in Washington to draft Bradford. Haden helps shore up a secondary that needs help. Haden has the makings of a shut-down corner and has excellent tackling skills. Visions of Dixon-Minnifield.

6. Trade for Kerry Rhodes

Rhodes, who has had problems with the new coaching staff in New York, would be a great addition to the safety corps. Rhodes is the type of ball-hawk, hard-hitting safety the Browns need. Plus, he would complete the secondary transformation (Wright, Haden, Elam, and Rhodes as starters with Adams and McDonald as nickel and dime guys).

7. Sign Kevin Walter

Walter would give the receiving corps a veteran presence and a reliable set of hands.

8. Draft a right tackle in the second round

This draft class is deep in talented offensive tackles and one of the better tackles should slip to the Browns in the second round. Teams seldom use a first round pick for a right tackle.

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Misconceptions About Brady Quinn

As the season draws to a close, Mike Holmgren will be evaluating the players on the Browns’ roster and deciding who when keep moving forward.

No position, aside from head coach, has seen more scrutiny than the quarterback.

Many people think Brady Quinn is the quarterback of the future, while others think the Browns should cut ties with Quinn and bring in a new quarterback.

I’m not an NFL talent evaluator, but there are misconceptions among fans and the media about Brady Quinn that are apparent from statistics and watching video.

 

Brady Quinn is an accurate passer best suited to a short-passing game

Brady Quinn’s career completion percentage is 52.1 percent.

You cannot make an argument that this reflects accuracy in any way. The measuring stick for accuracy among NFL quarterbacks is generally 60 percent. Quinn has the second lowest completion percentage among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify. The only quarterback with a lower percentage is JaMarcus Russell.

Heading into this season, rampant claims were made that Quinn should be successful in the short-pass, ball control offense that Mangini prefers. His stats have not been impressive and though the Browns have won the last two games, they’ve done so in spite of his passing performances.

Brady Quinn’s completion percentage in college was just over 60 percent.

 

Brady Quinn lacks arm strength

If you watch film on Brady Quinn or watched him play in college, you’ll realize that Brady Quinn does not lack arm strength. His problem is rather that he lacks the accuracy to complete the deep passes effectively.

Both interceptions that Quinn threw in the Kansas City game came on passes downfield that were overthrown and off-target.

 

The differences between the Browns’ current offensive plan under Brian Daboll, and the West Coast are not significant. Currently, the Browns throw the ball on approximately half the plays. If they switch to the West Coast, expect that number to climb to 60 percent.

Given Quinn’s completion percentage, will it help to throw the ball more often?

I don’t believe that Brady Quinn is the answer moving forward. The Browns should be in a great position to draft the best quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Sam Bradford probably would be a Detroit Lion if he decided to enter the draft last year. This season, he suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder. While this is cause for concern, the surgery was considered a success.  If the Browns can get him with the fourth to sixth overall pick it would be of enormous value.

Bradford’s college numbers are magnificent. In 2008, he passed for 4,720 yards and 50 touchdowns. His completion percentage was 68 percent.

ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper ranks Bradford fifth on his Big Board. This is his analysis of Bradford:

Has underrated arm, great feel for position, is superaccurate.

That sounds like a great formula for a successful west coat quarterback.

Holmgren should build the team his way, with his players. Quinn does not fit the profile of a West Coast quarterback, but Sam Bradford does.

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Three Players Mike Holmgren Has To Keep If He’s Next Browns GM

Mike Holmgren has lots of decisions to make.

First, he has to decide if he wants to come to Cleveland.

If he does come to Cleveland, he’ll be confronted with questions concerning the future of Eric Mangini, questions about the quarterback, and countless roster decisions and personnel moves.

Three things should be easy decisions. The Browns must rework Josh Cribb’s current contract, and they should work on new contracts for free agents to-be Jerome Harrison and Lawrence Vickers.

Josh Cribbs once again took the Browns on his shoulders to keep them in the game in the first half. His electrifying returns have thrilled fans for years, and this year he seems to have taken on a locker room presence that resonates not only with the other players, but also with the community.

Before the Steelers game, Cribbs rose everyone’s expectations and clearly stated that the Browns could win. His big return on special teams and success in the wildcat formation led the Browns to victory.

Now the Browns have won two in a row and look like a team that believes in their ability to score.

The front-office’s resistance to signing Cribbs a new deal this offseason has probably cost them millions, but they must have a new deal in place this offseason to keep Cribbs in Cleveland for the rest of his career.

Jerome Harrison has always been an intriguing prospect. He had a strong rushing average (6.8 ypc) in limited action during his young career. Yet the two knocks on Harrison have always been his size and ability to pick up the blitz on passing downs.

Harrison has proved in the last several weeks that he can be a tremendous offensive weapon. He has proven to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield (62 yards and 2 TD’s against San Diego). This week, he racked up the third highest single-game rushing total in NFL history with 286 yards. He scored 3 touchdowns in the second half, including the winning touchdown, a 28 yard scamper with 44 seconds left.

Harrison carried the ball 34 times, proving he’s no stranger to a heavy workload. During his senior season at Washington State, Harrison carried the 304 times, or over 27 times a game. He also totalled 1900 yards and 19 touchdowns.

The Brown’s brass and Mike Holmgren have two games to see if Harrison is capable of being a feature back, but evidence to this point suggests that he can carry the load quite capably.

If you watch the highlight reel of today’s game, you’ll see Josh Cribbs returning kicks and Jerome Harrison gashing the Chief’s defense for huge gains.

If you look more carefully, you’ll see Lawrence Vickers going to work blowing up defenders and paving the way for Harrison. The fullback position is often a thankless job, but Vickers will certainly get his due from Harrison for a record setting performance and praise from his coaches and teammates in the film room this week.

Vickers has been a good fullback in the league for a while. He blocks well and he can catch the ball out of the backfield. The Browns should lock him up and make sure he stays in Cleveland.

If Holmgren does indeed come to Cleveland, he must make sure Harrison, Cribbs, and Vickers are all in a Browns uniform next year.

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Once Maligned “Opportunity Period” Paying Dividends

After James Davis was injured so early during an extended practice session that Eric Mangini terms the “opportunity period,” many reporters and fans expressed outrage that players were spending extra time after practice to work.

Mangini has cited the extra practice as a “well supervised” period in which players, especially rookies have a chance to work in drills. Mangini cites this period as a Belicheck practice method that also takes place in New England, Cleveland, Denver, and Kansas City.

The past few weeks, especially last week, Cleveland has shown that the extra work in the opportunity period is paying off.

After the San Diego game on Dec. 6, reporters and fans alike wanted to know who Evan Moore was and where he came from. Evan Moore was a practice squad member and was promoted to the active squad before the game started.

When Moore was asked about his performance, he attributed his extra work after practice with Brady Quinn as the reason for his success and Quinn’s trust in him. Suddenly the Browns have a tight end that helps stretch defenses over the middle and has the ability to convert huge third downs.

In Thursday’s victory over the Steelers, the Browns recorded eight sacks. Four of those sacks were recorded by players that are certainly participating in the “opportunity period.” Marcus Benard and Brian Schaefering, two players recently promoted from the practice squad, combined for 3.5 sacks.

Kaluka Maiava, the rookie linebacker out of USC has started at middle linebacker after the slew of injuries, contributed another half-sack on a great second-effort play after he was knocked down.

Chris Jennings, a player the Browns signed from the Montreal Alouettes , yes that’s the CFL, scored the Browns first ground touchdown by a running back since the Buffalo game…last November. He carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards against the top run defense in the league and a team the Browns have struggled to run against for years.

With the infusion of youth on the Browns roster, and 11 draft picks in the April draft, expect to see more of the practice opportunity period, especially if Mangini stays.

Would it be great to see James Davis playing this season for the Browns? Definitely. But if the Browns use the extra drills to discover several young players and help rookies develop faster, the injury risks are worth it.

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Browns 2009 Draft: Analyzing First Two Rounds

The Browns had a first round pick and two second round picks heading into the 2009 draft. After a trade with the Jets, they amassed an additional second round pick.

I, along with most fans, certainly saw this as an enormous opportunity to fill some major voids on the team with young talent.

The Browns took Alex Mack with their first round pick. They then selected Brian Robiskie with the 36th overall pick, Mohammad Massaquoi with the 50th selection, and David Veikune with the 52nd.

The common saying is “hindsight is 20/20,” but I don’t think it took a seer to see some of the talent the Browns passed up in the draft.

Alex Mack

I was distraught when the Browns selected Mack.  I realize now as I did then, that Mack was a safe pick and a smart lineman that will probably be in the starting lineup for years to come.

I saw Rey Maualuga and Chris Wells on the board, however, and felt either player would have immediately upgraded positions of higher need. Hank Fraley is an adequate NFL center.

Brian Robiskie

You can only imagine my excitement when the second round came and Maualuga was still available. I thought the Browns would surely take him. This was a “can’t miss” opportunity. Sure, Maualuga has some character risks and didn’t perform well at the combine, but THE KID CAN PLAY!

Instead, they selected Brian Robiskie.

I am an Ohio State alumni and fan, and I know the type of person and player Robiskie can be. Analysts were saying that he could be the next Amani Toomer or JJ type: solid, dependable, hardworking. Unfortunately, he has been a disappointment and has failed to crack the active roster for several games for a 1-10 team that can’t score.

Personally, I would rather have the hard-hitting, fiery personality of Maualuga. That is a presence the Browns linebackers and overall defense lack. Maualuga has started every game for the first-place Bengals. The same Bengals that won four games a year ago.

Mohammad Massaquoi

I was angry when the Browns took another wide receiver with their next pick.  With all the needs of the team, why did they take another receiver? If Massaquoi was on the radar, why did they take Robiskie? They needed a running back, offensive and defensive linemen and secondary help.

At least Massaquoi has proven to be a worthy selection, as he leads the team in receiving and has proven to be a big play threat.

David Veikune

This pick still makes me cringe. I understand that Mangini comes from the Belichick system where you amass draft picks and take a few developmental players that need a few years before they are ready to play in the NFL. The Browns, however, are not the Patriots and need immediate impact players in the first two rounds. Take your shots with developmental projects in the later rounds.

The Browns had a very good opportunity to add depth and a future replacement for Jamal Lewis with this pick. The could have selected either LeSean McCoy or Shonn Greene. Instead they drafted a player that has seen limited time and again been inactive for several games.

What Could Have Been…

Imagine this draft class:

C Alex Mack, LB Rey Maualauga, WR Mohammad Massaquoi, RB LeSean McCoy, LB Kaluka Maiava, CB Don Carey, CB Coye Francies, RB James Davis

Do you think the Browns would be 1-10 if they drafted these players?

Going Forward

Mack and Massaquoi were solid selections that have performed as you would expect rookie starters to play in the NFL. Both have had moments of inconsistency, but both have flashed ability and have learned from their mistakes.

Mangini needs to play Veikune and Robiskie as the season winds down. He needs them to play and perform to save his job. They need to prove that he can be trusted with 11 or more draft picks in the upcoming draft. They need to prove that they belong on the roster next year if/when a new coach comes to Cleveland.

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Suggestions for the Post-Mangini Browns

The ownership and new management of the Cleveland Browns are going to have to make a decision on whether or not to move forward with Eric Mangini in 2010. 

Based on his track record with the Browns, the attitude of the city toward the coach, and the likelihood that the new management will want to move forward with its own handpicked coach, things don’t look good for Mangini.

Below are suggestions and ideas for the Browns moving forward:

 

1.  Focus on Creating a President-GM Relationship that Works

The Browns have struggled since their return to implement a cohesive front office.  The president, or “football czar”, the Browns are looking to bring to Cleveland should pick a GM with whom he has a good working relationship. 

The GM should not be a yes-man, but someone that can constructively criticize and offer opposing viewpoints. This is more important than finding a coach.

The Browns need a lasting infrastructure. I would love to see the Browns get Chris Polian, Bill Polian’s son and current GM/Vice President of the Colts, as the team president, especially if none of the big names come to Cleveland.

 

2.  Switch to a 4-3 Defense

I have come to the conclusion that the Browns do not have the personnel or coaches to run a 3-4 defense.  Switch to a 4-3 and start building a defense that can make Cleveland proud again.

 

3.  Draft Ndamukong Suh

The stud defensive lineman out of Nebraska should be an immediate impact player for the Browns, and would solidify a front four in a 4-3 defense.  Imagine this defensive line: DE Kamerion Wimbley, DT Ndamukong Suh, DT/NT Shaun Rogers, DE Matt Roth. The Giants won a Super Bowl with a great front seven even though they only had a mediocre secondary.

 

4.  Trade for A. J. Hawk

Call it homerism if you want, but Hawk would immediately upgrade the linebacker corp as an OLB in a 4-3 defense. He should be available as he has seen a significant decrease in playing time with the Packers‘ switch to a 3-4 defense.

The downside is that it might take a second round pick to get him away from Green Bay.

The linebackers would feature D’Qwell Jackson in the middle with Hawk outside. The third linebacker spot would be up in the air.

 

5.  Draft a Running Back

We don’t know what James Davis can give us, and Jerome Harrison hasn’t really gotten the shot that many fans feel he deserves, but I’d rather not wait around to find out with either player.

Besides, it only helps to have more than one option in case of injuries and fatigue. 

Look for a running back in the second or third round to help create a running game.  Teams should be able to get a first down on the ground and score touchdowns with their running backs.

Of course, all of this is completely speculative and depends on Mangini getting fired, but if the Browns want to compete anytime soon, they need to change the entire atmosphere and environment in Cleveland.

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Diamond in The Rough: Matt Roth Excels Against Bengals

The Browns lost another ugly game against a division foe Sunday. The offense failed to gain 200 total yards, and to add injury to insult, Shaun Rogers is done for the season and Brodney Pool should take time to consider whether he should continue football after his fifth concussion.

The lone bright spot for the Browns was the play of newly acquired Matt Roth. Roth set the edge on rushing plays, totalled seven tackles, sacked Carson Palmer, and played with the discipline and consistency that is lacking across the board on the Browns defense.

Along with Kamerion Wimbley, he should form a solid tandem of outside linebackers for the Browns.

Although the Browns should get credit for making the waiver claim on Roth, he wasn’t a player that went unnoticed by the league.

At least five other teams claimed Roth, but the Browns had waiver priority with the worst record. I guess it’s not always bad to be the worst team.

Roth had a very successful 2008 season with five quarterback sacks and 53 tackles with the Dolphins.  He is experienced in the 3-4 defense, and has the versatility and size at 275 lbs. to switch to a 4-3 defensive end if the Browns change schemes next season.

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How to Make the Browns Competitive (Next Year), Part Two

Solutions in the draft

If Eric Mangini is doing one thing properly, it’s the way he is working to build the team through the draft. The Browns traded a great deal of talent in Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards, but they have amassed four picks and additional players in the exchange. 

In the 2010 draft, they already have 11 picks, and I would not be surprised to see them add more picks before the draft. Not only will this help the Browns bring talented young players into the organization, but it also gives them more flexibility to move up or down the draft board to target the player(s) they want.

I believe in drafting the best available player, but I also believe in considering team need. The Browns will almost certainly be drafting in the top seven in April. With that in mind, I have gone round-by-round for the first three rounds and considered how to address different needs the Browns have.

 

Round One

I am of the same mindset as Eric Mangini and many other league personnel in wanting to trade down. If they do, however, they need to focus on getting quality picks instead of quantity of players like they got from the Jets trading down this year. However, fewer teams want to pay top-dollar to draft in such a high draft position.

The list below contains some names that draft analysts believe will be available at the top of the draft:

• Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska
• Eric Berry, S Tennesee
• Gerard McCoy, DT Oklahoma
• Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma
• Taylor Mays, S USC
• Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida
• Jake Locker, QB Washington
• Jimmy Claussen, QB Notre Dame
• Rolando McClain, LB Alabama
• Russell Okung, OT Oklahoma State
• Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

One thing stands out to me in this list: there isn’t one name that jumps out at me as a sure pick, especially with the injury to Bradford. 

The two players on this list who could help the Browns most immediately are Taylor Mays and Eric Berry. Berry is constantly compared to Ed Reed for his natural athleticism and playmaking ability.

Mays is a phenomenal athlete. At 6’3″ and 235 pounds, he has the size and strength of a linebacker and the speed of a defensive back. If I had to compare him to any safety in the NFL now it would be Adrian Wilson. Mays may be the better immediate fit for the Browns, as he would be huge on run support.

Sam Bradford will probably slip out of the top five due to his shoulder injury. If the Browns draft him in the first round, it could be a steal.

If the Browns draft in the top eight, my pick is Taylor Mays.

If they trade down, look for them to address the running back position (Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller) or their linebacking corps (Brandon Spikes, Eric Norwood).

 

Round Two

So far, the Browns have one pick in the second round, and unless Braylon Edwards starts catching passes in New York that won’t change—barring a trade. There should be several talented players available at the top of the second round.

It’s possible that Eric Norwood or Jerry Hughes will be available to upgrade the edge rush opposite Wimbley. If not, the Browns could look for a running back (Jonathan Dwyer, Joe McKnight) or a cornerback (Patrick Robinson).

 

Round Three

The Browns have two third-round picks, unless the pick they acquired in the Edwards deal gets upgraded. It gets harder to predict who will be on the board the later you get into the draft, or how teams will rate those players. The Browns could use these picks to upgrade the right side of their line (Zane Beadles, Kyle Calloway, Sam Young) or the pass rush and secondary. One player that would be interesting is George Selvie, who could make a good OLB.

 

Early Mock

First Round – Taylor Mays, Safety USC

Second Round – Jonathan Dwyer, RB GT

Third Round – Sam Young, OT Notre Dame; George Selvie, DE/OLB USF

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