The Trade After Five Weeks

After an offseason full of sports pundits roundly criticizing every move the Denver Broncos made, a 5-0 start has finally silenced the critics. Most of the controversy in Denver has been replaced by the sheer joy of winning.

 

The few hardcore Bronco haters out there are reduced to mumbling drivel about luck and making excuses for the teams that should have beaten the Broncos and couldn’t.

 

Only one argument has yet to be settled. Was Cutler for Orton really the trade of a franchise quarterback for a mediocre quarterback?

 

The numbers say some interesting things about the trade.

 

Kyle Orton has quietly moved into a seventh place ranking among quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of such notables as Favre, Rivers, Romo, and Flacco. Meanwhile Jay Cutler’s 25^th place ranking has him keeping company with the likes of Byron Leftwich and Matt Cassel according to Football Outsiders.

 

 

Given the criticism of Orton, that he has a weak arm and only throws short passes, one would expect Cutler, well known for his more powerful arm and deep passes, should have a higher yards per attempt. Instead, it is Orton whose yards per attempt stands at 7.49 while Cutler’s is 6.98.

 

Cutler’s 89.3 quarterback rating equally suffers next to Orton’s 97.4 rating. Cutler’s 901 yards through four games compares to Orton’s 906 yards on his first four, but Orton had no interceptions in those games to Cutler’s five and Orton was playing with an injury.

 

One oddity in the numbers is the changes in ratings both quarterbacks are experiencing this year. Kyle Orton’s rating shot up 17.8 points while Cutler’s rating of 89.3 represents an increase of 3.6 over last year.

 

The increase in Kyle Orton’s numbers is part of a pattern. His quarterback rating has risen every year since his rookie year when it was only 59.7. At 97.4, if Orton’s numbers hold up, he would have a quarterback rating better than the career ratings of guys like Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

 

Orton’s play during the New England game was the kind of play that one would normally expect from Tom Brady. Was this just a one game fluke or can Orton continue that all season? The answer to that question may just be that Orton has emerged as a franchise quarterback in his own right.

 

Jay Cutler had a remarkable 88.5 rating as a rookie and has substantially the same rating now.

 

The perception of Jay Cutler as a franchise quarterback was formed early on from the remarkable skill set he showed as a rookie. Cutler’s powerful arm, ability to throw touch passes, accuracy, and pocket presence were all evident from his first start. Cutler has skills that many good quarterbacks never develop.

 

The main thing holding Cutler back, and the main reason Orton is leading him in the rankings, are his interceptions. Last year Cutler was second in the league in interceptions with 18, the year before he threw 15 interceptions.

 

So far this year Cutler has thrown five interceptions, but four of them came in the first game of the season. If that game was a fluke and Cutler throws relatively few interceptions then he becomes the franchise quarterback so many people think he is. Brett Favre has made quite a nice career for himself with a career quarterback rating just under Jay Cutler’s at 85.7 and he overcame similar interception problems.

 

There is no doubt at all that Kyle Orton gained more than Jay Cutler in the trade. Orton moved into an offense that gives him a lot of targets and gives him the freedom to choose which one he thinks is the most open.

 

Jay Cutler went into a situation that gives him fewer targets, but Cutler has managed to play efficiently and get the most out of the targets he has. The result for Cutler has been less yardage, but he still finds ways to keep his team in games with his ability to get the ball to his receivers in key situations.

 

The Broncos stand 5-0 and the Bears at 3-1. Both teams are entering very tough stretches during which we will find out a lot about these players. They just may both prove to be franchise quarterbacks.

 

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Broncos ’09: Who Are These Guys And What Did They Do To My Team?

Ask any Bronco fan who the best coach in Bronco history was and they will answer with no hesitation, Mike Shanahan. No one casts a bigger shadow.

After the Broncos second Super Bowl, Shanahan became Broncos football. Somehow every year was going to be a Super Bowl year. That was the Shanahan promise.

Every year we started with a bright shiny offense that ran like clockwork and if something went wrong that was okay because next year we would just adjust this or that.

There is little doubt that Shanahan needed Elway as much as Elway needed Shanahan.  Most of Shanahan’s career after Elway was a search for a new Elway. No one ever looked more like Elway than Jay Cutler.

Cutler was going to be Shanahan’s salvation, the second coming. Shanahan was betting everything on the development of the young quarterback and the fans believed in Shanahan.

At the end of Cutler’s second year as a starter people began to doubt, the team was getting worse. Then Shanahan was fired and for some Broncos fans the world had been completely transformed. The certainty that seemed to exist with Shanahan was gone.

Suddenly the star quarterback was questioning the team owner. Demands flew, ultimatums were given.  The owner hired a young prodigy named Josh McDaniels and the star wouldn’t talk to him.

The drama kept on, the star traded, another star complaining. None of this happened with Shanahan so it must be the new guys fault. The witch hunt was on.

Through all of this the team was rebuilt, the preseason played and with the season about to begin few people really know who the Denver Broncos are anymore.

Last years defense, we are told, was terrible, so this year’s defense will have to be worse. Every small stumble was pointed to as the fatal flaw.

What has happened to the Broncos? Have they been rebuilt? What kind of season will they have? For the first time in 14 years Bronco fans are asking questions.

 

OFFENSE

The new offense has a lot of similarity to the old offense with a couple of notable changes. 

Orton is not Cutler

Cutler has a great arm. There was no throw Cutler couldn’t make. With Cutler on the field the Broncos were dangerous regardless of their field position.

Orton is a lot more of a ball control quarterback. He won’t hold the ball for the deep pattern, instead he’ll take the short pass and work down the field.

Orton’s first preseason game was labeled as disastrous because of three interceptions.  Before the first of those interceptions Orton had led an impressive drive. The second game saw Orton lead the same kinds of drives.

All of the evidence suggests Orton will have a strong year this year.  He progressively did better at controlling turnovers and made good throws. Even in the Chicago game, when he constantly had to overcome holding penalties he went 12-16 with no interceptions.

The question that the preseason left about Orton is whether he only threw short passes by design or because that was all that was available. The fact that the second team used more long throws suggests that Orton was throwing shorter by design because his strength is getting the ball out quickly.

 

Who Will Catch the Ball?

The wide receiver spot has gotten a lot of attention because of the Brandon Marshall hold out. Many pundits assumed that without Marshall the Broncos will struggle in the passing game.

The truly odd thing about Marshall is that he has one of the lowest catch rates among starting wide receivers. Marshall’s catch rate of 57 percent pales in comparison to that of his own teammate Eddie Royal whose catch rate of 71 percent is one of the best in the league.

In fact both Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney have catch rates of 58 percent. The evidence from preseason is that they are more than adequate replacements for Marshall

Add in Tight Ends Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham at 66 and 64 percent catch rates respectively, along with good pass catching running backs Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis, the Broncos actually have plenty of solid receivers for a variety of situations.

The Offensive Line

One legacy of the Shanahan era is a solid offensive line. The only knock on the offensive line was depth. McDaniels addressed that nicely in the draft with Seth Olson and in free agency and with solid veterans like Russ Hochstein and Brandon Gorin. The Broncos front line will be bigger and deeper.

 

Running the Ball

Perhaps the biggest question mark offensively is the running game. The Broncos steadily progressed in the running game but really only showed up in the final preseason game. 

Moreno’s carries have been very limited due to injury, Buckhalter has been lackluster, and Lamont Jordan has not impressed. Hillis, last year’s surprise starter at running back for a few games, may be the second best running back on the team. A lot depends on Moreno staying healthy in the running game.

 

DEFENSE

The good thing about last year’s defense is that it wasn’t as bad as Detroit’s. The bad thing is that it was almost as bad.

After the Cutler debacle criticism of McDaniels was that if he didn’t devote the draft to the defensive line it would be a failure. When only one draft choice was used on a defensive lineman a new round of criticism began.

Almost unnoticed was a series of quiet free agent pickups that will prove to be very wise over the course of the season.

 

The Defensive Line

The symbol of Denver’s defensive futility in 2008 was its smallish defensive line. Teams simply overpowered in the running game and ignored them in the passing game.

While the critics lambasted McDaniels for not spending draft choices on defensive linemen, McDaniels was quietly importing free agent Ronnie Fields, Ryan McBean and LeKevin Smith.  Along with holdovers Kenny Peterson and Marcus Thomas, both of whom bulked up, the Broncos became much larger on the defensive line with McBean being the smallest at 290 pounds.

The preseason has revealed this squad as being strong enough to control the line and create penetration both against the run and the pass. They have been a large part of a very successful preseason defensive debut as none of their opponents have been able to sustain any significant offense.

They totaled 10 sacks in their four games and against Chicago they registered seven three-and-outs. Moreover they held last year’s Super Bowl contender’s first-string offense scoreless in the first quarter of their last preseason game.

 

Linebackers

This has been the biggest area of concern.  The linebacker corps includes four former defensive linemen who are making the transition to outside linebacker.

Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss have shown very good pass rushing skills from their outside linebacker positions but have missed assignments when called on to drop back into coverage.

Darrell Reid has been quieter but his interception against Arizona might have been a sign that he understands the coverage assignments a little better.

In the middle veterans D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are solid anchors while Mario Haggen provides a solid outside linebacker presence as the starter on the left side.

This linebacker corps in the three four defense give the Broncos a great ability to rush from a variety of positions on any given play. Dumervil and Moss, if he makes the team, will prosper in this scheme.

 

The Defensive Backs

One of the biggest free agent moves McDaniels made was the acquisition of Brian Dawkins. Renaldo Hill and Andre Goodman came over from Miami to join with Champ Bailey in forming one of the oldest defensive backfields in the league. Through the preseason they have shown that won’t be a problem.

Dawkins provides the anchor for the safety position that the Broncos have lacked since John Lynch retired. Known as an intense player he has already proved himself a great on field example for the younger players.

Bailey is widely considered one of the top cornerbacks in the game. His reputation alone prevents many quarterbacks from challenging him during games.

Goodman is a solid corner with good coverage skills. He will be the corner most tested this season. So far he looks up to the challenge but Cincinatti will be his toughest test so far.

Hill has had a decent career. Last year in Miami he was beaten out for the starting  safety job by the end of preseason. When Miami’s secondary was burned in week two, Hill was inserted back into the lineup and is credited for solidifying the secondary that year.

Backing them up are a trio of second-round picks including Alphonso Smith, a much criticized pick by McDaniels who traded a first-round pick in next years draft to pick him. Smith has a reputation as a ball hawk. He has looked promising in the preseason at both nickel back and as a punt returner.

Darcel McBath and David Bruton are the two second-round safeties. They have both shown nice coverage skills and a willingness to make the big hit.

 

PREDICTIONS

The defense is going to get a lot of the attention early on. It shows signs of gelling quickly and has the right personnel to control most offenses. 

None of the Broncos preseason contests were against strong running teams. The defense might struggle against power running teams like Pittsburgh and New York.

Teams like New England and San Diego will test the linebackers with passes to tight ends and running backs. The Broncos should work out their linebacker coverage but if they haven’t by the time they meet San Diego they will be in deep trouble.

Defensively the Broncos will end the season ranked somewhere between 12^th and 17^th.  They will be solid against the run but vulnerable over the middle to passes to tight ends and backs out of the backfield.

Offensively, the Broncos have revealed very little in the preseason about how they will play. Will they stay strictly with the short game while Orton is out there? Will Moreno solidify the running game?

Fortunately the Broncos go against two relatively soft defenses in their first two games. Look for McDaniels to open up the playbook a little with a variety of misdirection plays and crossing routes.

The Broncos offense will be erratic for the first couple of games as they continue to absorb the new offense.  They should settle a little for the Oakland game and be pretty decent in time for Dallas.

I do think McDaniels will pull out all the stops for Dallas. That will be a key game as the next four are very tough opponents.

Moreno’s durability will be a key issue in the performance of the Bronco offense. When healthy his skills are enough to make the Bronco running game a real threat. Good running performances by Moreno will go a long way to keeping pass rushers honest and forcing opposing defenses to keep more defenders in the box.

Should Moreno miss significant time to injury, backups Buckhalter and Hillis can provide a serviceable running game but neither will be enough of a threat to force defenses to focus on the running game.

Realistically the Broncos will see 8-8 but if they can split with San Diego, 9-7 while giving San Diego a scare for the division title. More than that is possible but it will depend on how well the offense comes together and on Moreno’s durability.

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Kyle Orton’s Broncos Debut: Was It Really That Bad?

The first preseason game of 2009 has been played. Most Bronco fans came away encouraged by offensive and defensive upgrades, but the overwhelming impressions many have of the game were formed by Orton’s three interceptions. Are they harbingers of football doom or merely the growing pains of a new system?

Clearly every Bronco fan was excited by the beginning of Denver’s first offensive drive. Orton went 7-of-8 in marching the Broncos from their own 28-yard line to the San Francisco 4. Then the wheels came off.

Orton’s first pass into the end zone was a bad read on his part. Instead of throwing the ball right to Daniel Graham, Orton led him into coverage. The result was an interception.

The next drive saw the 49ers ramp up their defensive coverage. Orton was 1-of-3 before making another bad read over the middle, when Dre Bly stepped in front of Brandon Stokley.

Orton’s very next pass was a slightly underthrown 24-yard pass down the sideline. Jabar Gaffney was open in an area about five yards behind the deep-zone defender and five yards past a mid-zone defender. Orton clearly underthrew the ball because he was worried about the deep defender coming up on Gaffney, leaving the ball just short enough for the athletic young Reggie Smith to make a great play on a third pick.

For the half, Orton went 9-of-16 for 89 yards with three interceptions. Should Denver fans be out in the streets with torches and pitchforks? Maybe not.

Last year Orton threw no interceptions in nine of the 15 games he played in. Orton’s worst season was his rookie season when he threw only 13 interceptions. 

A comparison of quarterbacks who had similar numbers of attempts last year shows Orton’s 12 interceptions as comparable with other quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and others. Orton actually threw more touchdowns in 2008 than highly touted young quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as well.

Since the Cutler trade, much has been heard about Orton’s tendency to throw interceptions, but the statistics show something very different. Why is this?

There could be a simple reason. 

Chicago fans had a Super Bowl team in 2006 largely led by a strong defense. The huge dropoff they had in 2007 and 2008 are usually blamed on Brian Griese and Kyle Orton, but both of those quarterbacks actually outperformed Grossman’s Super Bowl run effort.

The fact is that Chicago’s defense wasn’t as strong in the years after 2006 but because the quarterbacks they had weren’t winning games the passers got the blame. Orton, in particular, partly because he was so inexperienced, became a popular scapegoat, his every mistake magnified.

Orton’s own efficiency added to this perception. Though he only threw interceptions in six games, he threw two interceptions in four of those games and three interceptions in one of them. 

All but one of those multiple-interception games in 2008 were games in which Orton was sacked three or more times. In fact, Orton only throws three interceptions during the entire season in games in which he is sacked less than three times, that’s only three interceptions in 11 games. This suggests that, when under pressure, Orton can be forced into bad decisions, but if he is given time he can be very efficient.

During the first Bronco preseason game, Orton was not only not sacked but hardly saw any significant pressure. He’ll see more pressure during the year but nothing like what he saw in Chicago.

His only obstacles are going to be learning the offensive system and getting used to his receivers. Give him time to develop rapport with his receivers, and the stats suggest that we’ll see very few mistakes over the course of the year.

The Reason for Brandon Marshall’s Drama Becomes Clear

Amidst the offseason turmoil Bronco’s fans have endured was the dramatic trade request by Brandon Marshall. Coming on the heels of the Jay Cutler fiasco Marshall’s trade demands seemed to indicate the franchise was alienating its players.

Marshall’s holdout lingered all off-season, sharply dividing Denver fans. When Marshall finally did end his holdout it was only because he ran the risk of being fined.

The complaints coming out of Marshall’s camp were myriad: 

He was locked into a rookie contract that left him vastly underpaid.

The Bronco training staff misdiagnosed the severity of a hip injury that led to his requiring off-season surgery.

He didn’t trust new head coach Josh McDaniels

Just before training camp began Marshall bragged about his workouts with Larry Fitzgerald. His claim was that his only issue was that he needed to work on his speed.

Then came training camp with a pouty Brandon Marshall dramatically ending his holdout. He looked great in showing off his conditioning but ominously had to sit out the first day of practice.

On the third day of practice Marshall pulled up with what was widely reported as a hamstring pull. The Denver Post is reporting today that Marshall did not sit out of practice because of a pulled hamstring but due to pain in his surgically repaired hip.

The reality of Marshall’s surgery is that players generally need six months to a year to fully recover. Marshall had surgery in March, just four months ago.

Even leaving aside the question of whether Marshall can fully recover he may not recover fully this season. This is particularly devastating in a contract year when Marshall needs to elevate his worth.

The offseason complaints by Marshall clearly were a way of trying to get a new contract before the Broncos realized that Marshall may not be able to be as effective as he had been.

The Big On Field Battle in Denver

Finally the long hot summer is beginning to end.

The boys of summer will soon give way to the warriors of winter. The crack of the bat will be replaced by the crash of body armor against body armor.

Denver fans have been waiting since January for some glimpse of the post-Shanahan era and what it really means. The first big battle won’t be Denver versus some other team though.

An era has changed; there is a new attitude in Denver.  One clash remains, the last vestige of the excesses that doomed Mike Shanahan still remains to be washed away. The big pre-season battle to watch will be Royal versus Marshall.

Marshall was the coddled star, whose poor off-field decisions were tolerated because on the field he could make great plays. The last year of Shanahan’s tenure was marked by a reliance on two young talents with great potential, but great flaws. 

While Marshall enters his third season Royal comes in as a second year player who has quietly gone about his business well enough to have an excellent rookie campaign. The new attitude in Denver is hard working, no fuss type players.

Over the last couple of years McDaniels’ offense has featured precise disciplined routes run by receivers like Moss and Welker with the quarterback throwing to spots. A player like Royal fits that concept like a glove, but Marshall has never been a disciplined route runner.

Marshall and Cutler worked well together, with Cutler buying time with his feet while Marshall used his size to ward off smaller defenders.  Cutler was looking for him anyway so it didn’t really matter if Marshall was in exactly the right place.

Marshall caught 57 percent of the passes thrown to him, Royal caught 71 percent.

There will be a battle.

Marshall has to prove to the league that it is worth putting up with his poor off-field decisions. A bad season by Marshall could mean little to no interest in him as a free agent.

This battle is a microcosm of the Denver Bronco offseason.

Can Marshall show the kind of discipline the new system will require? He will get his chances but if he can’t stay with Royal in the preseason he may end up somewhere else before his trading value drops too far.

 

Kyle Orton: What Is Being Said Versus the Evidence

New Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton has received a lot of criticism lately. He has been called weak—armed and interception prone.

Are these charges true? Let’s take a look.

Kyle Orton’s interceptions

Ever since the Cutler—Orton trade much as been made of Orton’s interceptions.  In 2008 Orton threw 12 interceptions out of 465 pass attempts. The interesting thing is that nine of those interceptions came during games in which Orton was sacked three or more times. Chicago split those games, going 2—2.

Orton does throw two interceptions against New Orleans, a game where he was only sacked one time. He goes on to lead a drive at the end of the game to tie it and another drive in overtime to win it.

The very next game was against Green Bay. This was a game in which Orton was sacked three times but also led a game tying drive in the fourth quarter and a game winning drive in overtime.

Clearly Orton can be pressured into throwing interceptions. Does that mean he will always throw interceptions when he is under pressure? This video suggests otherwise.  Note that the longest completion on that drive is thrown by Orton as he is taking a fierce hit.

The evidence suggests that given reasonable time in the pocket Orton can make the throws he needs to make.  It also suggests that Orton is capable of standing in and taking a hit while delivering the ball.

Orton has a weak arm

One of the more bizarre charges against Orton is the he can’t throw deep. What makes this such a strange accusation is that it completely ignores a draft system that is set up to choose the best players from the hundreds of colleges and universities across the country.

While at Purdue Orton managed to pass for enough yards to be fourth on the Big Tens all time career list. 

Any quarterback who gets drafted will have been thoroughly scrutinized and no coach will ever handicap himself by taking a quarterback who can’t make all the throws he needs to. Generally when a quarterback is called ‘weak—armed’ it is because they strongly prefer to throw short passes.

‘Weak—armed’ quarterbacks have included guys like Joe Montana and Tom Brady. A quarterback in an offense that emphasizes short passes is often the target of the term ‘weak—armed’.

Orton’s scouting report from Scouts Inc., the service ESPN uses, says the following: “He has a strong arm and can make all the throws.” 

Pro Football Weekly says,  “Can zip the ball with velocity, make back-shoulder throws and shows good overall accuracy when his feet are set and he steps into his throws.”

Maybe the best evidence is this video which pretty well shows off Orton’s ability to get the ball down—field.

Just by way of comparison, Peyton Manning, in 2008, completed passes over 20 yards at a rate of 35 percent while Orton is at 37 percent. 

Orton is immobile

Perhaps the most serious charge against Kyle Orton is that he can’t move in the pocket. Even many of the scouting services list him as ‘heavy footed’.

Needless to say the two videos previously referred to in this article show Orton moving quite well while rolling out and getting back to pass as does this video. 

One of the striking things about Orton’s statistics is the difference in quarterback rating before and after the November 2 game against Detroit. He goes from an average rating of 89.92 in the first eight games to an average of 66.95 in the last seven games, nearly a 23 point drop.

Eight of Orton’s twelve interceptions are in this last half of the season, after he injures his ankle against Detroit.  He also, in consecutive games during this period, leads drives in the fourth quarter that force overtime and ends up winning both of those games.

Orton’s mobility in the last half of 2008 was poor and that drastically affected his performances.  During the first half of the season Orton played well and his mobility was fine.

The verdict

Kyle Orton doesn’t really have a long track record in the NFL but what there is suggests he is a decent quarterback that was on a poor offensive team.  His poorest games came when he was pressured by the opposing team and that pressure was made worse by his ankle injury.

His arm is average by NFL standards with good accuracy when he is allowed time to throw.  Given the targets he had in Chicago he had a reasonable career so far.

He’s never had the kind of multiple targets he will have in Denver and his protection will be better.  While it is impossible to know how well he’ll be able to use all those targets his history suggests that given the time to throw he will do very well.

 

What Josh McDaniels Was Thinking

When Mike Shanahan was fired at the beginning of 2009 he was quoted as saying that he thought any new coach coming in would be a fool to substantially change the offense. The eventual trade of Jay Cutler and revamping of the Denver Broncos has been a bone of contention for many Denver Bronco fans ever since.

The end of 2008 saw the Denver offense compared to the best offenses in the league. Jay Cutler was being widely touted as a future star, his record an aberration blamed on a very poor Denver defense. Why then, did new coach Josh McDaniels change the offense?

Comparing the offenses of the 2007 New England Patriots and 2008 Denver Broncos one striking thing is that they both averaged close to the same yardage per play. This is what most pundits point to when they tout the 2008 statistics of Jay Cutler. What they don’t point out is that the 16-0 Patriots scored 589 points while the 8-8 Broncos scored only 370. 

Just three years before that Denver scored 395 points with far fewer turnovers and went 13-3. In fact a comparison of the 2008 Scoreability Index and the 2005 Scoreability Index suggests that the Broncos were less efficient and 2007’s Scoreability Index was worse than 2008’s.  Notice the team at the top of the 2008 Scoreability Index?

Of course everyone in Denver remembers the big falloff in 2006, when Denver recorded an 8-8 record. The end of that season saw Shanahan firing defensive coordinator Larry Coyer and trade starting quarterback Jake Plummer away. 

Since 2006 the defense has been poor and is popularly blamed for Denver’s woes.  Plummer was replaced by Jay Cutler, a young player with an impressive arm. The Broncos were 7-9 in 2007 and 8-8 in 2008.

Denver’s defense certainly never recovered its efficiency. Relatively unnoticed is the fact that while Denver’s yardage soared with Jay Cutler Denver’s scoring was going down.

Cutler’s gaudy yardage statistics, impressive as they were, were accompanied by more attempts and less scoring. Hidden in the stats was a growing problem for Denver’s offense, an inability to score touchdowns.

Denver’s rushing offense was a big factor in its two Super Bowl wins. Elway may never have won a championship without TD. Over the years Denver’s rushing game was a big key because it set up play-action passing and it forced defenses to choose whether to take a chance on whether to cover a Bronco receiver one-on-one.

2005 was a fairly typical year with Denver gaining 2539 yards rushing.  Denver’s rushing yardage dropped steadily every year, Denver only had 1862 yards rushing last year even though Denver’s yards per carry was almost identical between the two years. 

In fact last years yards per carry compares favorably to the yards per carry of Denver’s last championship team in 1998 when they still had Terrell Davis.

The Broncos had never really replaced Terrell Davis with a single back. Instead Shanahan had adopted the attitude that he could always find a back to be successful in Denver’s system and he was more or less proven right.

Why didn’t Denver rush more?  The popular reason given is that Cutler was a better passer than Plummer but their yards per attempt when one compares 2005 and 2008 is identical. The only real difference between the quarterbacks statistically is that Cutler threw 620 times to Plummer’s 465.

Shanahan, like many others, had fallen in love with Cutler’s arm and abandoned the offensive balance that had been a major part of his success. The result was worse offense to go along with worse defense.

When Shanahan was fired many Denver fans assumed that nothing was wrong with the offense; that Shanahan’s failings were only on the defense. Many people expected a defensive head coach to replace Shanahan.

When Denver Broncos’ owner Pat Bowlen hired a former New England Patriots offensive coordinator to be head coach it came as a shock to many who saw Denver as having no offensive problems. Before McDaniels had any chance to do anything Cutler made it evident he wanted out and forced a trade.

McDaniels was immediately faced with a team loaded with offensive talent that had been abandoned by its quarterback and a defense that had lost confidence. One of McDaniels’ first moves was to bring in defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

Mike Nolan has made a career as defensive coordinator of some of the best defenses in the NFL. His success on defense led to a brief stint as the head coach of the San Fransisco 49ers.

McDaniels then made some smart free agent pickups of veterans like Brian Dawkins, Andra Davis, J’Vonne Parker and Ronald Fields. Quiet acquisitions like Darryl Reid will address Denver’s questions along the defensive line while letting Bronco linemen like Elvis Dumervil and Jarvis Moss assume more natural positions.

On offense he traded disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler and a fifth round draft pick for a more enthusiastic Kyle Orton, two first round draft picks and a third round draft pick. If we go back to the 2008 Scoreability Index the team with the best scoreability index was the Kyle Orton led Chicago Bears.

Essentially McDaniels pulled off a coup, swapping starters and getting two first round picks and a third for a fifth round pick. This is possibly the area in which McDaniels made his soundest move.

In the draft McDaniels was able to add a great running back prospect, a solid pass rusher, several good young defensive backs, depth along the offensive line and a good young quarterback prospect. Between the draft and free agency McDaniels has quietly added depth, youth and experience while simultaneously shoring up several Denver weak spots.

Critics of McDaniels focus on the Jay Cutler fiasco but McDaniels really had little he could have done with that situation. As things stand he may well have improved Denver greatly.

Is Jay Cutler a Franchise Quarterback without Mike Shanahan?

In the wake of the dramatic restructuring of the Denver Broncos, the big story has not been the acquisition of a new coach or changes in offensive and defensive philosophy, but the trade of Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears.

Many people have been so caught up in the loss of Cutler that they consider the Broncos’ season over before training camp has even begun. What do the numbers really say about Cutler and his success in Denver?

The most impressive thing about Cutler is his arm. No one in football has a stronger arm. Add to that Cutler’s mobility and ability to throw on the run, and he can be a formidable weapon as he has proven in his brief career. Cutler has the ability to make any throw on the field.

Oddly enough, Cutler’s one weakness is that he is much less effective when forced to stay in the pocket.

During his brief tenure in Denver, Cutler was surrounded by great offensive talent at the receiver position and was one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the league. One would expect great numbers from a great quarterback in this situation, and Cutler delivered, but how do his numbers compare to other great quarterbacks in similar situations?

The Broncos were 7-9 in Cutler’s first year and 8-8 in his second, but much of that is blamed on Denver’s defense. 

 

How bad was Denver’s defense?

That’s not as easy to evaluate as one might think. In 2008, the Broncos had a turnover differential of -17. In 2008, Bronco opponents got 101 points off of Broncos’ turnovers.

In 2008, Cutler alone threw 18 interceptions and fumbled five times. This might be forgivable if Cutler was under great pressure all the time, but Cutler was sacked only 11 times all season. Cutler had 20 of the team’s 30 turnovers.

The 448 points given up by the Bronco defense made them the third worst in the NFL, but 101 of the points given up were from turnovers directly attributable to Cutler. Had the Broncos only given up 347 points, they would have been a middle-of-the-road defense. Even a more realistic 400 points would have potentially been good enough to make them a playoff team.

The Bronco defense was still not very good, and had they gotten into the playoffs, it would only have been because the Chargers had an off year. The point is that Cutler added to the defensive woes by giving his opponents extra possessions and short fields to work with.

 

How do Cutler’s stats measure up?

Cutler’s passer rating ranks him 14th in the league and his completion percentage is 16th in the league. Only one passer threw more times than Cutler in 2008, but Drew Brees has a significantly higher QB rating and completion percentage. 

Cutler’s yardage stats are impressive, but they suggest Cutler is only great between the 20s. When you look at Cutler’s completion percentage in the red zone, it drops all the way down to 56.9 percent. By comparison, Brees’ percentage goes up to 71.4 percent in the red zone. In fact, Cutler’s red zone percentage puts him in 11th place in the NFL, again mediocre.

The Broncos were second in yardage per game but only 16th in points scored. When you rate Cutler and the Denver offense by yardage, they were great, but if you go strictly by scoring, the Broncos were a mediocre team. 

 

Cutler’s team or Shanahan’s team?

One of the things people tend to forget when they look at Cutler is just how loaded Denver is on offense. In 2008, Cutler was surrounded by two receivers who were close to 1,000 yards in receptions; Brandon Marshall was well over and Eddie Royal just under, along with one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league. Cutler was also working behind an offensive line that gave up only eight sacks. In a lot of ways, Cutler was in the ideal situation for a young quarterback.

Mike Shanahan had designed his offense for John Elway, and Cutler has very similar skills. Between Shanahan and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, Cutler was being carefully groomed in the mold of Elway. Cutler’s decision-making in the Shanahan system was minimized.

Shanahan had already been successful with a running system that left only very basic decisions to the running back. For years, he could plug in any running back and boast a decent running game. 

The quarterback spot was being run in a very similar way. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Cutler all had similar success over the years. Griese’s third year saw him with 19 touchdowns to only four interceptions and a quarterback rating of 102.9. Plummer’s best years as a pro were in Denver.

Comparing Cutler to his post-Elway predecessors, Cutler has better yardage but many more interceptions than Griese, while he has similar yardage and slightly fewer interceptions than Plummer. Both Plummer and Griese had higher winning percentages than Cutler though. Neither Plummer or Griese would ever be mistaken for a franchise quarterback.

One thing that is very different though is that both Griese and Plummer were better at diversifying the offense. Cutler’s 181 throws to Marshall was unusual for a Shanahan quarterback.

 

The mastermind

Any Broncos fan of the last 12 years will always have a soft spot for Shanahan. Without Shanahan, Elway retires a loser and the Broncos are just a team that wants to win a Super Bowl.

He was brought in because he was an offensive genius, and he proved it with back-to-back Super Bowl wins. The offensive scheme Shanahan created was good enough to work even after other teams in the league had caught on to it and knew how it worked.

Shanahan gained a large part of his reputation early on by working with Elway in the early part of his career. He furthered that reputation in San Francisco when he helped Steve Young turn his career around after Joe Montana was gone. One thing Shanahan does very well is build an offense around a quarterback.

Shanahan’s success with quarterbacks like Griese and Plummer suggest that he can make even a questionable quarterback look very good.

 

Conclusion

When the Cutler trade was announced, Mike Ditka was quoted as saying; 

“People ask me one question: Is he a good quarterback? Well, he has a great arm. He had great receivers up in Denver, they had an offense that threw the football a lot, so it highlighted his strengths. If he’s in an offense that doesn’t highlight his strengths, what’s his strength going to be? It has to be leadership, like Tony said. And he has to prove that.”

Tony Dungy said:

“He is a very talented guy who can throw the ball very well. But quarterbacking is so much about leadership and so much about doing things under pressure. There is going to be a lot of pressure on him.”

“We’ll see about his maturity level. That’s what I would question. And some of the things that happened leading to him leaving Denver … that would concern me as a head coach. He can make all of the throws, but quarterbacking is much more than just making throws.”

These two former coaches both recognize one thing. Cutler has spent all of his three years as a pro in an offense designed for him and with a coach who carefully led him through the game. Lovie Smith is not Mike Shanahan; he won’t alter his offense drastically to suit Cutler.

Cutler won’t be surrounded by the kind of offensive talent he had in Denver. He will be surrounded by the winds that Chicago is known for. He’ll be expected to adapt his play to a more conservative game plan which emphasizes protecting the ball.  

Shanahan’s magic is gone. Will Cutler disappear without it?

 

Rocky Mountain Blues: The Ultimate Denver Is Doomed Article (Satire)

Given all of the drama surrounding the Denver Broncos this off-season, it comes as no surprise that there have been a flurry of articles predicting a disastrous season for that team.  There have, in fact, been so many articles that it has started to become obvious that the writers of these pieces are having trouble thinking up new material. Fortunately I am here to help with a few suggestions.

 

Josh McDaniels has destroyed the team.

Before this offseason, Denver was a football paradise.  Under Mike Shanahan, the Broncos were so dominant that they lost games just to encourage their opponents.  Their opponents needed increasing amounts of encouragement.

Pat Bowlen became so bored with the everyday perfection of the Bronco team that he snuck up behind Coach Mike Shanahan while he was watching a play at Ford Theater and shot him in the head.  Later it was proved that Bowlen had been hypnotized by Bill Belichick.

Then Bill Belichick secretly infiltrated the crafty Josh McDaniels into the situation to further destroy the most amazing team ever. Bowlen, who was still under hypnosis, was made to hire McDaniels and act like a chicken whenever he saw John Madden. This explains why you never see Bowlen and Madden together.

McDaniels’ first step was to call the Bronco star quarterback, Jay Cutler, and tell him that he would be required to do musical theater in Boise, ID during the offseason. He then leaked a story about what a wonderful singer and actor Matt Cassel was.

After Cutler left in tears, McDaniels called Brandon Marshall and told him the police were looking for him. Marshall fled to Florida and hid under his mother’s bed.

As the final part of McDaniels’ master plan, he brought in a bunch of proven veterans and promising young players and made them compete for jobs.

 

Jay Cutler was replaced by Kyle Orton

After the hiring of Josh McDaniels, Jay Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears. Jay Cutler was the only player on the Denver Broncos roster. A little known fact is that Denver was actually built by Jay Cutler while he was attending Pro Bowl games as a fetus.

It is a well known fact that John Elway only won his Super Bowls because he was actually Jay Cutler. Cutler was such a good quarterback that he often completed passes for both teams. 

When Cutler was traded to Chicago, everyone in Denver tried to shoot each other but they all missed because Jay Cutler was the only guy in Denver that could hit anything.

Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears for an armless, legless man named Kyle Orton who used to ring the church bells at Purdue. His scouting report said, “We don’t know who this guy is but his face sure rings a bell.”

 

Brandon Marshall holds out

Brandon Marshall, the only other player for the Denver Broncos, decided that while he was hiding under his mother’s bed, he should ask for more money. Everybody laughed.

 

Predictions

Kyle Orton will be mistaken for a tackling dummy and killed by his own team. Orton’s brother, who patterned his life after Kyle, will, upon hearing the news, throw himself from the church tower at Purdue. The obituary will read, “…he was a dead ringer for his brother.”

His backup, Chris Simms, will gradually lose all his internal organs during the season.

Brandon Marshall’s apparent longest touchdown of the season will be called back when referees realize that he didn’t catch the ball but instead caught Chris Simms left kidney.

The Raiders will still finish last in the division.

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