Packers-Cardinals: Playoff Preview?

The Green Bay Packers travel to Arizona to take on the defending NFC Champion Cardinals Sunday at 1:15 PST. There has been speculation that the teams may rest players, and that would be bad news for fans of these exciting teams.

The good news is that with the game between the Eagles and Cowboys being moved to the same timeslot as this game, both the Packs and Cards are likely to still have a playoff seeding—fifth or sixth for the Packers, second to fourth for the Cardinals—to play for. This means it is likely that starters will play for most if not all of the game.

Only three games affect seeding in the NFC—the aforementioned two and the Minnesota Vikings hosting the New York Giants. And no matter how that game turns out, it relies on the other two games to complete the picture.

However, an authentic preview of this game can’t be created because there is a very good chance both teams will go “vanilla” with the gameplan.

But, like my brother-in-law is fond of pointing out, vanilla is still a flavour. There is no such thing as plain ice cream.

So think of offenses and defenses as ice creams, with your fundamental plays being vanilla. Going into tasting ice cream blindfolded, the things that might not be expected would be the flavour swirls, chips, nuts, fruit…even more complicated combinations like cookie dough.

They equate to complicated blitz/coverage schemes and specific plays designed to exploit the opposition’s defensive weaknesses. These are things both teams may be reluctant to unveil for fear they will lose the element of surprise the following week.

Disregarding ties—not because, like Donovan McNabb, I am so clueless as to not know (or see) that they happen, but because a tie unnecessarily complicates the picture when the probability of it happening in even one of the games (based on frequency of the last 12 years) is less than 1 in 600—there are eight potential result combinations. In four of them, these two teams go right back at it, same bat-time, same bat-place, (probably even) same bat-channel.

If Minnesota wins at home, no matter what happens in the other games, the Packers and Cardinals will engage in a rematch next weekend. If the Vikings lose, only a Cardinals victory avoids these two being back at it.

Thus, for all of us Packers fans rooting for a matchup with the Vikings in the first round, that happens if both the Vikings and Packers lose. But be careful what you wish for—it is a fallacy that it is hard to beat a team a third time, as the majority of teams with the chance to do so close out the sweep.

(Of course, we all know Brat did not read that memo—or the Vikings defense—in 2004, when he threw four picks to let an 8-8 team win on the hallowed ground of Lambeau Field. It was his second home playoff loss, and the second in franchise history; he would go on to a third.)

Not only do six of eight possible outcomes for this weekend result in Green Bay returning to Arizona for the first round of the playoffs, the chances are actually better than 75 percent. Despite how they are playing, the Vikings have to be considered to have at least a 60 percent chance of beating a team that has much less to play for.

For this reason, I think any analysis of this game would be skewed. I think if you take out the Packers complicated blitz schemes and just line up players, the deep athletic receiving corps of the Cardinals tests the injury-riddled Packers secondary, neutralizing the defensive advantage Green Bay has. Combined with the better offensive line and special teams, that outweighs the Packers better offensive balance, and Cards win 31-28.

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Green Bay Packers: Ten New Year’s Resolutions for 2010

The Packers are completing a successful season in 2009, but the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl is a longshot this year, and there are simple things that can be done for the team to go to the next level. With the new decade rolling in, here are my top ten Packers’ New Year’s resolutions for the upcoming year to make that jump to the Super Bowl.

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NFL Pro Bowl: Green Bay Packers Are the Epitome of Team

The Green Bay Packers are fourth in the league in yards and scoring offense. We are second in the league in yards and ninth in scoring defense. It all adds up to 10-5 and a playoff berth.

So when the Pro Bowl rosters were announced, you may have been expecting a lot of players to be on the list. If so, you would be disappointed: Charles Woodson is starting, Nick Collins is the backup free safety, and Aaron Rodgers is the third-string quarterback.

How can this be? Because the Packers’ achievements have not come through star players, but a deep roster with more talent than any team can gameplan for.

Think about it. Who else belongs in the Pro Bowl? Here are the other outstanding Packers players to consider:

Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have had solid seasons, but who are you going to remove? Sidney Rice and Miles Austin had more catches, touchdowns, and yards than either of them. DeSean Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald are the most dynamic receivers in the league and have both Packers receivers in two of the three categories.

Ryan Grant is third in the conference in rushing, more than DeAngelo Williams on the NFC team. His 10 scores are better than Williams or Stephen Jackson on this team. He has more yards per carry (barely) than Adrian Peterson and does not fumble nearly as often. But are you going to remove a guy who has 17 TDs (Peterson), one who averages almost a yard more per carry (Williams) or one who accounts for over three in every eight yards of his team’s offense (Jackson)?

Sure, you could remove Jared Allen, who has less production in the 13 other games than he does in the two games against the Packers, and Johnny Jolly and Cullen Jenkins have been great. But there are a dozen other defensive ends who have gaudier stats because the 3-4 does not provide opportunities for linemen, and there are others from the same defense with as much claim to the spots.

Clay Matthews and Nick Barnett have had the most outstanding seasons at linebacker for the Packers, but Barnett has been no more impressive than Minnesota’s Chad Greenway and Dallas’ Keith Brooking, who also did not make the Pro Bowl.

 

There really are not even any other players who should be considered. Oh, there are some bad Pro Bowl appointees.

For instance, how do the Vikings, in the midst of a 1-3 slide in large part because the offensive line has faltered—it ranks 20th in sacks yielded and 22nd in average yards per carry with Adrian Peterson running the ball!—land two starting Pro Bowl linemen?

But you are not going to tell me that anyone from our offensive line should be on the team. Or a good tight end who ranks fifth in the NFC in receiving yards over the top two, one of whom has a shot at setting the record for touchdowns for the position.

Or a cornerback who is only starting for half the season because of an injury. Or a solid strong safety who has not even played in every game.

Perhaps a couple linebackers could have been chosen, and they and a running back or maybe even a receiver might go as an alternate.

The only other team with a winning record with as few Pro Bowl players is the Cincinnati Bengals. They beat the Packers in Lambeau Field in Week 2, have 10 wins, and no players headed to the Pro Bowl, although Cedric Benson should be.

Do not take away from the announcements of the roster that the Packers had only one starter and two reserves.

Instead, focus on how we stopped to think why several other players did not make it, because what this year’s Pro Bowl roster really says is that we win as a team.

 

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes .

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NFL: Packers Return to Playoffs in Impressive Fashion

The Green Bay Packers won decisively over the Seattle Seahawks Sunday in front of their home crowd. Even as that crowd watched the scoreboard of the Carolina Panthers doing the same with the New York Giants. It was very reminiscent of 2004, when an inferior team helped the Packers make it into the playoffs by beating the Vikings even as the Packers thrashed the Denver Broncos.

The only question that remains is, will the Pack be the fifth seed or sixth? That may be determined before Green Bay even takes the field Sunday in Arizona—if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles, the Packers are the fifth seed. If they tie or win, the Packers need to do likewise to be seeded ahead of either them or Philadelphia.

For now, we will dwell on getting in following a 4-4 start and a loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (a loss that does not look as bad in light of two straight road wins, including one over top-seeded New Orleans). It was an all-around team effort, and here are the grades by unit:

 

Quarterbacks: A-

Aaron Rodgers had another strong performance, finishing the game with a 103 passer rating that probably does not do his game justice since it overemphasizes completion percentage. He may have only been 12-23 (.522), but he threw for 19.8 yards per completion (237 yards). He may have had only one touchdown but had no turnovers and set up the team’s rushing success; before his deep completion to Greg Jennings, the Packers had no carries for over three yards and a total of nine on five carries.

Rodgers had only one carry for nine yards himself and was sacked once for nine; Matt Flynn had only two kneeldowns for two yards total lost. Flynn was four of six for 36 yards in relief of Rodgers (plus drew a 36-yard pass interference) during garbage time. Overall, that gives the quarterbacks 271 yards on 33 plays, an 8.2-yard average.

 

Running Backs: A+

In what was easily the best performance of the year, all three running backs got into the action, both with yardage and scores. Thanks to a 56-yeard score, Ryan Grant led the way with 16 carries for 97 yards (6.1 average) and two touchdowns. Ahman Green also had one touchdown among his eight runs, and although he averaged under four yards per carry (3.6) with just 29 yards (most of it on one 16-yard carry), he made the most of what he was given.

Brandon Jackson had just 20 yards on five carries (4.0), but one was a nice cutback score and he got into the endzone on another carry. Moreover, he caught three passes for 19 yards, including a 13-yard touchdown. Korey Hall also had a catch for seven yards, giving the unit 162 yards on 33 touches (4.9 average) with no turnovers and all six touchdowns.

 

Receivers: A-

With no drops and an average of 20.6 yards per catch, why the minus on that A? Easy: no scores and no remarkable catches.

Still, it was an impressive performance by the unit, led by Greg Jennings’ four catches for 111 yards (27.8 average). Jermichael Finley had three catches for 80 yards, an incredible 23.3-yard average for a tight end. Donald Driver had three catches for 33 yards, Jordy Nelson had one for 17, and James Jones had one for six.

 

Offensive Line: B-

It may be nitpicking, but Rodgers was sacked twice more than the one listed on the sheet; they were just nullified by penalties. Also, the holes to run through were not there consistently enough.

Still, one official sack (even against a subpar pass rush) and an average of 5.2 yards per carry (albeit also against a subpar rush defense) excluding kneeldowns is pretty good. It should also be noted that Green Bay was able to get backup linemen T.J. Lang and Evan Dietrich Smith over a quarter of play.

 

Defensive Line: A

Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly seemed to be disrupting Matt Hasselbeck on every play. Their efforts may have only netted five tackles and an assist, but also led to three sacks by the linebacking corps.

While Seattle’s two running backs had 109 yards on 28 carries (3.9 average), 61 of those yards came on the 10 carries after the Packers had reached a five-touchdown lead. In other words, in the two-plus quarters before the game was a total blowout, they held Seattle’s backs to 48 yards on 18 carries (2.7 average).

 

Linebackers: A-

Linebackers accounted for a whopping 32 tackles and seven assists, with seven different players getting in on the action as the Packers emptied the bench. The ‘backs did catch seven passes for 55 yards, and the linebackers also have tight end John Carlson’s eight-yard catch on their hands—a total of 63 yards on eight passes for a productive 7.9 average.

Nick Barnett had led the way with a huge game: six tackles, three assists, and a sack. A.J. Hawk had five tackles, an assist, and a pick. Rookie seventh-round pick Brad Jones (proof that one thing Tightwad Ted Thompson can do is draft!) had five tackles, an assist, and a sack, while Brandon Chillar had four tackles and a sack.

Defensive rookie of the year Clay Matthews had three tackles and an assist, and Desmond Bishop also added a tackle and an assist. Brady Poppinga got a tackle, and Cyril Obiozor, in his first action at linebacker this season, registered a tackle.

 

Defensive Backs: B+

In the past three weeks, Charles Woodson has gone from a lock for defensive player of the year to one of the players on the short list. He played fine, registering four tackles and not getting beat for any big plays. He held T.J. Houshmandzadeh to four catches for 51 yards and no scores, but had no big plays himself, either. Overall, the wide receivers had 10 catches for 119 yards.

This time, a non-Pro Bowl player—Atari Bigby—led the way with two tackles, five assists, and two picks. However, safeties have to take primary blame for the one 16-yard score to tight end John Carlson; Nick Collins had five tackles.

The surprising play was from the rest of the backfield that was torched by Pittsburgh. They were largely responsible for Hasselbeck’s relatively low completion percentage (.514) despite the plethora of short passes (10.4 yards/completion).

Jarrett Bush actually made a play, getting an interception to go with his two tackles. Brandon Underwood had two tackles, Tramon Williams added one to his two assists, and Josh Bell had a tackle.

 

Special Teams: B

I don’t remember the last time I gave this unit this high a grade. Let’s start with the bad: Jeremy Kapinos had a pedestrian 41-yard average on his four punts, one of which was returned for 20 yards; on the other hand, no others were even returned.

Granted, Mason Crosby did not have to make a pressure kick, but his 52-yard attempt went right down the middle, and he hit a 29-yarder plus all six extra points. He also put three of eight kickoffs into the endzone, including one touchback and helped the Packers hold Seattle to just a 20.3 average per return with a long of 30 yards.

There were no punt returns and Nelson let a ball go he should not have, yielding an extra 15 yards. But kick returns were pretty good, with Nelson getting one for 33 and another for 23; Woodson had one for just 12 because the Packers had the hands unit out there and no blocking set up for him.

 

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes. Please also check me out on PackerChatters.

 

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NFL: Packers-Seahawks Preview

The Green Bay Packers go into Sunday’s game with an outside chance of clinching not only a playoff birth, but the fifth seed in the NFC overall.

In order to clinch that spot, we need a win and either a Dallas loss in Washington or a Giants loss at home against the Panthers. To clinch the fifth seed, Philadelphia would also have to beat the Broncos at home.

I figure two of the four things will happen—they just will not be the right two. However, a loss will make it very hard for the Packers to make the playoffs at all, so a lot is riding on this game.

Seattle, on the other hand, became just the second team to lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, along with their opponent this week; they are the only team to lose to them at home. This team is a mess, having scored a single touchdown in each of the past two weeks and giving up an average of 29 points.

The week before, they only won because of horrible officiating; the week before that, only because they were playing the worst team in the NFL (the Rams). They have only one quality win among their five, beating a Jacksonville team that, at the time, was struggling.

The Seahawks are likely to be without starters LB Aaron Curry and WR Nate Burleson. RB Julius Jones and WR Ben Obomanu are listed as questionable—it is safe to say they will be at less than 100 percent if they do play. In addition, LT Walter Jones and LB Lofa Tatupu are among major players on the injured reserve.

The Packers have more significant injuries. We are without reserve OLB Jeremy Thompson, and NT Ryan Pickett is listed as questionable—expect him to suit up for depth but rookie B.J. Raji to get his second straight start after a strong performance in Pittsburgh. Green Bay also has starting cornerback Al Harris, dimeback/kick returner Will Blackmon, linebacker Aaron Kampman, and C/G Jason Spitz on injured reserve.

Still, while injuries offer a slight advantage for Seattle, Green Bay has done without most of those players for the majority of the season. The intangible benefit of any home game far outweighs this, and Pacific Coast teams tend not to fare well in the cold.

The Packers have also dominated the Seahawks of late. But most importantly, having something to play for and having won five of the last six gives the Packers a huge advantage in the intangible category.

We also have a distinct advantage in miscellaneous statistics that are measurable, such as a +18 vs. -5 turnover ratio and a 32:47 vs. 27:29 average time of possession advantage. The Packers are also better on third down percentage on both sides of the ball: 47 percent (third in the league) on offense and 36 percent on defense (seventh) vs. 33 percent on offense (26th) and 37 percent on defense (15th).

This is one reason that Green Bay averages 27.1 points per game (seventh) while generating the sixth most total yards (378.8). Seattle scores 18.4 (22nd) and generates 319.2 (22nd). The Packers give up just 20/game (10th) and allow 290.9 (2nd) while the Seahawks allow 23.2 (23rd) and 355.9 (24th).

About the only measurable miscellaneous statistic Seattle leads the Packers in is penalties, with 27 fewer penalties for 274 fewer yards.

Green Bay has the league’s eighth best passing attack at 262.9 yards per game thanks to a receiving corps that is second in yards after the catch (1,931) and a quarterback who is fourth in passer rating (102.4). Only five teams are better than the Packers’ 8.0 yards per play passing.

The one weakness here is a line that, despite improved play in November and December, still has yielded more sacks than any other. The Seahawks, however, seem unlikely to be able to exploit that—only eight teams have fewer sacks than their 27 overall. Seattle struggles in pass defense, ranking 29th in total yards (249.4) and 22nd in yards per play (7.2).

This leads to a huge advantage for the Packers when they are passing.

Green Bay also has a decent running attack, averaging 115.9 yards per game (ranking 15th) and 4.4 per carry (tied for ninth). The Seahawks, however, are ranked 13th in yards per game (106.4) and are tied for 16th in yards per carry (4.2). So on the rare occasions the Packers choose to run, the two sides are even.

However, the Seahawks running attack is anemic, averaging just 93.6 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 3.9 per carry (also 28th).

Meanwhile, the Packers rush defense is among the best in the league, even if you do not consider they have faced many of the league’s top rushers (Cedric Benson, Stephen Jackson, Ray Rice, the trio of Cowboys backs, and Adrian Peterson twice). The run defense ranks second in yards per game (83.6) and is tied for first in yards per carry (3.6), giving the Packers an immense advantage when the Seahawks try to run the ball.

Thus, expect the Seahawks to do what they have had to for most of the year: pass. The Packers showed they are vulnerable against three- and four-receiver sets because of the injuries to the defensive backfield, although without Nate Burleson, Seattle appears to lack the necessary depth to exploit it.

However, Seattle does still have a potent passing game, averaging 225.6 yards per game (14th in the NFL) thanks to a receiving corps that is fifth in yards after the catch (with 1,855). However, some of those are padded by the frequency by which they do pass, as they are only 24th in the league in yards per play (6.2) and Matt Hasselbeck is only the league’s 19th-ranked passer (79.6).

Seattle also gives up the 10th most sacks in the league (35) while the Packers are tied for the eighth most with 34. All of this leads to a significant advantage for the Packers when the Seahawks pass, especially since they will know that is likely to be the case—probably increasingly so as the game wears on.

The one advantage the Seahawks have is no surprise, and it is significant: special teams. The biggest advantage is in a comparison of kickers: Olindo Mare is 21-23 (.913) with only one miss inside of 40 yards, while Mason Crosby is 24-33 (.727) with two short misses and a missed extra point.

Remember how the Packers got rid of punter Jon Ryan? Good thing, since he is averaging 46.9 yards per punt and has had 26 punts downed inside the 20 as opposed to only eight touchbacks.

Green Bay’s Jeremy Kapinos averages a respectable 43.8 per punt, but has had 10 touchbacks to just 14 downed inside the 20. Oh, and he had a punt blocked that resulted in a Tampa Bay score.

Things do get a bit better when comparing punt and kick return to coverage. The Packers average a woeful 6.9 per punt return and give up a whopping 10.2 average, but the Seahawks actually are worse, getting 7.2 but yielding 11.1—a net advantage of about two feet in the Packers’ favour.

However, the Seahawks have an almost negligible net advantage of 0.1 yards in kick returns, getting 22 but yielding 23.5 vs. the Packers 21.6 and 23.2, respectively.

Still, all in all the Packers have so large an advantage in this game that the only way they will lose is if they do not give full effort. Such a performance would be grounds for putting the coaching staff on the hot seat given the stakes, so I am predicting a Packers blowout: Green Bay 38, Seattle 14.

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NFL Final Standings Predictions for 2009

With three weeks left in the season, the rest for the season is coming into focus. No longer are there those games where you wonder, can the Vikings win on the road over a good Cardinals team (at least if you ignore last night’s seven-turnover debacle) or beat a good Bengals team at home?

With that in mind, here are my predictions for each division, followed by those for the playoffs in my next piece. I will start with the best division in football and work my way down.

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NFL: Packers-Bears—Previewing the Rematch

The Green Bay Packers travel 180 miles down the shores of Lake Michigan Sunday for a 10 AM PST tilt against the only team in NFL history that has been in its home longer. But the two most storied franchises in the league have completely different goals…

With a win Sunday, the Green Bay Packers can ensure a winning record and at least second place in the NFC North. We cannot, no matter how things go in other games, lock up a playoff berth, but we can move into the top wild card seed for the time being.

The Bears, with their season all but over, will still be able to keep their extremely slim second place and even slimmer playoff hopes alive. For one week, Jay Cutler could make fans stop longing for Kyle Orton (much less all the additional value given up in the trade), and Lovie Smith could put off sending out that resume.

What a difference a month makes. At the start of November, these two teams were tied at 4-4, but the Packers have rattled off four straight wins for the fourth time in Mike McCarthy’s four years coaching this team. The Bears lost four in a row before getting an unimpressive home victory over the one-win St. Louis Rams.

All the intangibles except desperation point toward the Packers, and with the lack of hope for the Bears, even urgency might not favour them over a team fighting to secure a playoff birth. The most significant mitigating factor becomes the trend that rivalry games favour the underdog in that games that do not look close usually still are, but the result is still a big advantage to the Packers for intangibles.

The Packers are beat up on the defensive line, with all four players in the rotation listed on the report. The team’s best run-stuffer, nose tackle Ryan Pickett, is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Versatile back-up DT/DE B.J. Raji and end Cullen Jenkins are listed as probable and likely to be a little less than 100 percent. However, defensive end Johnny Jolly is questionable—my guess is he will suit up but see limited action, and that the team will promote practice squad NT Anthony Toribio as well as lean on DEs Michael Montgomery and/or Jarius Wynn.

Green Bay is also without linebackers Aaron Kampman and Jeremy Thompson as well as defensive backs Al Harris and Will Blackmon. Other players listed as probable on the injury report, all of whom should not only play but be close to 100 percent, are tackle Chad Clifton, tight end Jermichael Finley, cornerback Charles Woodson, and linebacker Nick Barnett.

As one would expect at this time of the year, Chicago has injuries, as well. They have been playing without linebacker Brian Urlacher since he was injured in the opening week against the Packers, and list both of their remaining outstanding linebackers (Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer) as probable—expect them to play at a high level, just as their defensive tackle teammates Tommie Harris and Israel Idonije.

However, converted wide receiver Devin Hester and tackle Orlando Pace are questionable. While both will probably play, they will not likely be at their best. Nevertheless, it is obvious that injuries are a big advantage for the Bears.

The Packers passing game is in the top quarter of the league in total yards and fourth in yards per pass play for two reasons:

1. Aaron Rodgers has inserted himself into the MVP debate (even though he will not and should not contend for it unless he has the best four-game stretch of his career) by ranking fourth in the league in passer rating, third in the league in total yards (passing plus rushing) and second in total touchdowns.
2. Packers receivers are once again in the top four in the league in yards after the catch. They are one of six corps in the NFL to have two players on pace for 1000-yard receiving seasons (incidentally, New England already has two there!), and are one of four teams with four receivers in the top-50 of the NFC for receiving yards.

However, the Bears are a stout ninth in both total passing yards and yards per play. The Packers seem to have improved their weakness of yielding sacks, giving up just four in the last three games, but they did face some pretty weak pass rushes (the week before that, they gave up four against a stout Cowboys’ pass rush). With the Bears being about the middle of the pack in this category, this works out to be only a slight advantage for Green Bay passing against the Bears defense.

Ryan Grant has struggled in the last two weeks, but last week he was against a Ravens defense that ranks first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed and knew the Packers would be running the ball most of the second half. Grant is still on pace for another 1200-yard season, and Rodgers leads the league in quarterback rush yards.

Overall, Green Bay is ranked 11th in yards per carry and 13th in total yards rushing. The Bears are ranked 25th in both total yards allowed and yards per carry. Thus, the Packers have a big edge running against the Bears defense.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defense is third against the pass in total yards and fourth in yards per play. This is thanks in large part to the best secondary in the league, even after the loss of Al Harris, led by the current front-runner for defensive player of the year, Charles Woodson. The team has even moved up to the middle of the pack in sacks, being tied for 15th.

Chicago ranks 16th in passing yards per game and just 19th in yards per play and their best receiver is hobbled. They are 16th in sacks allowed and their second best lineman is hobbled. This adds up to a big advantage for Green Bay’s defense against the Bears passing attack.

The Packers rush defense ranks fourth in both yards per game and per play thanks to a stout line, deep linebacking corps, and great tacklers in the secondary. However, the line deserves the plurality of credit for this, and they are banged up.

The Bears rushing attack has fallen off for two reasons: Matt Forte’s production is suffering from the sophomore jinx and the coaches have fallen in love with Jay Cutler’s arm, convinced their play-calling has been better when statistically this offense is worse than last year’s. Thus, the Bears are ranked 31st in rushing and 24th in yards per carry, leading to an huge advantage for the Packers when the Bears are running the ball.

On special teams, I have repeatedly documented the Packers being among the bottom third (and often bottom quarter) of the league in every statistical category (punt net average, punt return average, kick return average, kick coverage, and field goal percentage). I am certain enough that this remains true that I will not subject myself to the depression of verifying it.

Meanwhile the Bears have two potential Pro Bowl kickers and good punt and kick return statistics. Their coverage is not very good, especially on punts, but this still adds up to a big advantage for Chicago on special teams.

Overall, the Packers are first in the league in turnover ratio (plus-18), seventh in points scored (26.9) and ninth in points against (19.1). Green Bay is also second in time of possession (33:36) thanks in large part to a fifth-place ranking in third down percentage (45.7) on offense and sixth place defense(34.4).

Meanwhile, Cutler leads the league in interceptions and is horrible in the red zone, meaning a lot of those yards the team gets through the air are for naught; they are minus-four in turnover ratio for the season. In addition, 24th in time of possession (28:34) because they are only 20th in third-down percentage on offense (36.9) and 29th on defense (42.9).

Adding this statistical domination to the Packers’ one slight and four big advantages I listed above, and the Bears’ two big advantages are dwarfed. My prediction: Packers 34, Bears 13.

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Packers-Ravens: Green Bay Wins Flag Fest

It’s official: with Monday night’s 27-14 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Green Bay Packers are sitting in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. The team controls its own destiny—win three of four and there is no mathematical possibility of missing the playoffs; win two of four and there is little chance of it, especially if those two wins are against the three NFC opponents remaining.

 

The remaining schedule is kind to us Cheeseheads: barring an Aaron Rodgers injury, Green Bay will be the favourite in Chicago and at home against the Seahawks. The Packers might also be favoured at the struggling Steelers and/or in Arizona should the Cardinals have their playoff position set by the last week of the season.

Right now, Green Bay even owns the tiebreak over every potential wild card team but the Eagles. In all, I would put the Packers’ odds of making the playoffs above 2:1.

 

However, there are some very alarming things that arose out of the Ravens’ game. For example, the Packers benefited from some questionable officiating.

 

It also seemed like on a couple of occasions the officials were persuaded into making a call by the Packers. For instance, Ray Lewis clearly was guilty of a facemask against Greg Jennings, but the flag came in only after pleading from the aggrieved team. Likewise, Derrick Mason clearly pulled Charles Woodson past him for his only downfield catch, but he had already made the catch and been tackled by the time the laundry came flying in.

 

Actions this late smack of being home team calls, even if they are correct. The referees also missed at least one blatant pass interference penalty on the Packers (despite them getting flagged for four of them), and they may have given the home team a favourable spot on the first drive. There was also a question raised about the clock operation leading to the two-minute warning that was never answered, so we do not know if that unfairly allowed seven seconds to run off.

 

Not that I am complaining. (Actually, I am sort of complaining: I expect a level playing field, and never have felt any comfort in the “what goes around comes around” attitude.)

 

Here’s a look at how the Packers units measured up:

 

Quarterback: B-

In some ways, this is an unfairly low grade for Rodgers. He was the victim of four drops, one of which resulted in an interception; without these, he completes 75 percent of his passes and gets 300 yards, with three scores and just one pick.

 

But the drop by Donald Driver was not the best pass, and his other pick, while the equivalent of a punt (an argument I used to make all the time for the Old Guy), was a dumb decision. In 40 passes, you can expect two drops, so he was only really let down on two. (Mark Tauscher also caught a deflection, and while it took three yards off Rodgers’ totals, it helped his completion percentage; it was also a great catch, so maybe Tausch should lead the pass-catching drills this week.)

 

Rodgers also missed a few open receivers, usually throwing high, and while he moved around well in the pocket (dare I say he has matured in terms of avoiding sacks?), the reality is he was not under duress to excuse such misses. Still, 26-40 (.650) for 263 yards (6.6 per attempt) and three scores to two picks is a good performance. Add four carries for 30 yards and just one sack for seven, and Rodgers accounted for 286 yards on 45 plays—a 6.4-yard average per play is pretty good.

 

Running Back: D

The only reason this unit ranks this high is that the Ravens came in as the best rush defense in the league in yards per carry; the fact that they were lacking Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed meant much less to their rush defense than the pass defense. Ryan Grant had just 41 yards in 18 carries (2.3 average), with a long of eight. Ahman Green did pretty well, getting 23 yards on five carries (4.6), but that still gave the unit 23 carries for just 64 yards (2.8).

 

Korey Hall and Brandon Jackson contributed just three catches for 27 yards, meaning the backs had 26 touches for 91 yards (3.5 average)—this might be acceptable for one player against a very good defense like the Ravens have, but not an entire unit. That being said, they did manage to help the Packers kill the clock and keep the Ravens honest.

 

Receivers: B-

 

Here we have to downgrade the corps because of the four dropped passes and Driver’s fumble lost that set up the Ravens’ first score. But we must also consider that they drew five pass interference penalties and acknowledge that the ball is harder to catch in the cold.

 

In all, they still accounted for a solid but unspectacular 22 receptions for 239 yards (10.9 average) and three scores to compensate for the drops and fumble. Jermichael Finley led the unit in catches (seven), yards (79), and touchdowns (two) despite missing time with a minor knee injury. Jennings was close behind with six catches for 77 yards (12.8 average), and Driver did get the other score among his three catches and 31 yards (10.3).

 

Offensive Line: D

 

Rodgers being sacked only once and not having to run for his life to avoid more than a couple others was the line’s biggest task. However, it is not that impressive a one considering the Ravens came in with just 21 sacks in 11 games. Coupled with the failure to open holes for the running game, albeit a tall order against this defense, nearly pulls this down to a failing grade.

 

Defensive Line: B+

While the line once again was almost invisible on the stat sheet (six tackles, three assists), they were not on the field. They plugged the line to allow the linebackers one of their better games and were largely responsible for holding the Ravens solid rushing offense to just 66 yards on 21 carries (3.1 average) and just one score to go along with a fumble. The five tackles for loss (14 yards in total) were largely from the line’s penetration.

 

Linebackers: A-

They combined for 16 tackles and seven assists, three sacks, an interception, and a fumble forced. (Desmond Bishop’s fumble recovered was on special teams.) Rookie Clay Matthews led the way with five tackles, an assist, two sacks, and the forced fumble.

Baltimore did get some production out of their tight end, Todd Heap, but not only is he a formidable weapon, but some of his coverage responsibilities were on the safeties. In all, he and Ray Rice combined for eight catches and 69 yards, just an 8.6-yard average.

 

Defensive Backs: B+

 

True, they are partially responsible for Joe Flacco’s low completion percentage (.417), but not much more than his receivers or Joe himself. However, they did come up with two interceptions and gave up only one score and seven catches for 68 yards (9.7 average). They also supported their teammates with 12 tackles. Were it not for a few plays in which they were responsible for Heap’s coverage, this grade would be an A.

 

Special Teams: D

With the offensive line giving up just eight sacks in the last five games, this is fast becoming the team’s worst unit. Jordy Nelson did well on the only legitimate kick return (38 yards), but averaged about two yards per punt return. Evan Dietrich-Smith fumbled on his five-yard return of a short kick and the Packers were lucky to get the ball back. On the Ravens only other kick (another short one), they called for a fair catch.

Jeremy Kapinos had three punts with just over a 34-yard net, one of which was fair caught at the 17 for a sub-30 yard net and another for a touchback; his other was returned for six yards. Kick coverage once again allowed a huge return (68 yards), but a relatively modest 25-yard average considering that breakdown.

 

Mason Crosby missed his first field goal attempt under 40 yards (38) this season, and while I can tell you first hand how much harder it is to kick in the cold, you have to make kicks that short. His only successful kicks were from 28 and 32, and not one of his six kicks made it into the endzone.

 

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL: Packers-Ravens Preview

The 7-4 Green Bay Packers host the 6-5 Baltimore Ravens Monday night, and both teams’ seasons may already on the line.

There is no doubt this is true for the Ravens—mark my words: there will not be a 9-7 team to make it in either conference. Losing this would mean the team must win every game the rest of the way, and they still have to play at Pittsburgh, a team they needed overtime to beat at home despite Ben Roethlisberger not playing.

The Packers could lose this one and still have a one-game margin of error. However, with a loss the green and gold would fall out of the playoff picture as of now, and have two tough road games to follow: a division game against a desperate Bears team and then one against the desperate Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

What’s more, they finish the season against the Arizona Cardinals, who may be playing for the second seed based on tonight’s thrashing of the Vikings.

Let me put it bluntly: I believe there are two losses in those three games. (We should beat the Seahawks at Lambeau since they only beat the Niners because of three or four bad calls. But then we were supposed to beat the Buccaneers, too, so nothing is a given.)

So let’s take a look at how the teams match up:

 

Injuries/Intangibles: Slight Advantage, Packers

With the Packers playing at home, where we are 4-2, and the Ravens on the road, where they are 2-3, this should favour the Packers. But while the Ravens are closer to having their season end, it has not yet, making their sense of desperation higher. The Packers, as the favourite, also have more pressure.

None of that is very significant, however. What is? The Ravens have played a much tougher schedule and have two quality wins (@ Chargers, vs. Steelers) and four losses in which they were within one score. Green Bay has only one quality win (vs. Cowboys) and two close losses (vs. Bengals, @ Vikings).

The Ravens are just plus-four in turnover ratio, while the Packers are plus-17. Since both teams have accrued a lot of penalties, the slight advantage of the Ravens here is negligible.

The injury report is not great for either team. Green Bay is without returner and dimeback Will Blackmon, starting corner Al Harris, center Jason Spitz, and linebackers Aaron Kampman and (back-up) Jeremy Thompson. There are also two other significant offensive line injuries, but Chad Clifton should play (he is listed as probable) and questionable T.J. Lang is only a back-up.

The Ravens’ situation is much worse. They are without linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo and corner Fabian Washington, and have tight end L.J. Smith and linebacker Terrell Suggs listed as doubtful. Furthermore, they have three defensive backs listed as questionable: corner Cary Williams and safeties K.J. Gerard and Ed Reed. And while defensive tackle Haloti Ngata will almost certainly play, he is not going to be 100 percent.

With that many pass rushers and backs out, the Packers vaunted passing attack will be that much more free to roll. This in total is a bit more significant than the intangible edge the Ravens have.

 

Packers Passing Attack vs. Ravens Pass Defense: Advantage, Packers

The Packers are the sixth-ranked passing attack in the league, averaging 262.8 yards per contest, and rank eighth in yards per play. The Ravens are the 12th-ranked pass defense, yielding 211.3, and rank 19th in yards per play.

Green Bay’s stats are inflated by some weak pass defenses—two games against the Lions and one against Cleveland—but the Packers have spent much of five games running out the clock with the game well in hand in the fourth quarter. The Ravens have played three bad passing attacks—the Chiefs and the Browns twice—and have had to face more passing in just three games that were won by two scores.

 

Packers Rushing Attack vs. Ravens Rush Defense: Big Advantage, Ravens

The Packers average 119.2 yards per game, good enough to rank 13th in both total yards and yards per play. The Ravens give up 97.6 yards per game, good enough for sixth in the league; however, no team gives up fewer yards per play.

While Green Bay has played some tough run defenses (Minnesota twice, San Francisco, and Dallas), the Ravens have played the Bengals, a top rushing offense, twice. Green Bay’s numbers are inflated by needing to grind out five games, while the Ravens have never been blown out where they might face teams doing the same.

 

Packers Pass Defense vs. Ravens Passing Attack: Advantage, Packers

Green Bay ranks seventh in the league by giving up just 192.5 yards per game; they are sixth in yards per play. The Ravens are 13th in both yards per game and yards per play.

The Packers have had to face many teams passing a lot to try to catch up, but also some horrible passing attacks—the Browns, Rams, and Buccaneers are all in the bottom ten of the NFL. The Ravens have never had to abandon the run to make up ground, and have played only the Broncos and Chargers among the top ten pass defenses.

 

Ravens Rushing Attack vs. Packers Rush Defense: Big Advantage, Packers

The Ravens are barely above average running the ball, ranking 14th in both yards per play and per game (117). The Packers are ranked fourth in the league in yards per game (89.1) and second in yards per carry.

True, the Packers have had to face just one team running out the clock, but this defense has shut down Adrian Peterson twice (a total of 152 yards on 50 carries), Steven Jackson, and Frank Gore. The only back to gash the Packers was Cedric Benson, who is among the best in the league this season. Meanwhile, the only top-ranked rush defense the Ravens have played is the Vikings, and they have tried to run out the clock in three of their games.

 

Special Teams: Big Advantage, Ravens

True, Baltimore has struggled in the kicking game, missing two potential game-winning field goals and six of 22 overall (77.8 percent), but they made the switch to Billy Cundiff last month, who has only missed one inside of 50 yards. Sam Koch is one of the best punters in the game, and the coverage for both punts and kicks is pretty good. Their punt return game is below average, but their kick returns are above average.

Meanwhile, the Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league. They rank in the bottom third in every category: punt net average, punt return average, kick return average, kick coverage, and field goal percentage. ‘Nuff said.

Prediction: Packers 27, Ravens 23

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes .

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFC North Unit Rankings, Defense and Special Teams

Looking at special teams and the defensive side of the ball, the division is much more balanced. The Vikings still hold the top spot in two of the four units, but the Packers have the single best defensive unit in the division to go with another top ranking to earn them the rnaking of No. 1 defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions defense is historically bad, as one can see by their units ranking lowest in three of the four categories again.

Note: I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes: http://www.sportsscribes.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1027:nfc-north-unit-rankings-part-ii&catid=81:green-bay-packers&Itemid=170

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