Lions Should Roar In Chicago: Cutler and Lovie Leave Forte Alone Again

In Las Vegas, the Bears are listed as 10 point favorites at home against the Lions. Both are fresh off their best games of the season, but are the Bears really that much better than Detroit?

If we look at what the Bears have done this season, it’s a whole bunch of interceptions with the purpose of allowing Jay Cutler to become the superstar the Bears thought they traded for. In the process of doing so, they have completely abandoned the run, one of the stretgths of their team coming into the season.

Last season Matt Forte accounted for over 2,000 yards of offense and now they’re treating him like a jouneyman in favor of Cutler’s style of play. Why? What has Cutler accomplished?

Has he ever led his team to the playoffs? NO!

Has he ever had a winning record in any season? NO!

Could he win one game in the final three to clinch a playoff birth in 2008? NO!

Has he thrown a lot of bad passes in critical junctures of games? Ahhh, yes, he has done that.

Has he lost to several less talented teams on his home field over his career? Definitely, yes! 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise from Lovie Smith though—who lived and died with the erratic game of Rex Grossman until the media finally ran Grossman out, not Lovie. For some reason, Lovie thinks that Chicago should have a passing game, something that hasn’t been part of Chicago’s frigid cold fall months since Sid Luckman in the 1940’s.

Is it really the luck of the draw with getting quarterbacks, or could it be by some educated design that the run and defense have always been staples in Chicago.

Here’s how I see the game going this week.

The Bears will come in a little over-confident and it’ll bite them right away as the refreshed Lions play loose and free on offense, defense, and special teams.

A healthy Kevin Smith, with Maurice Morris, should keep the chains moving taking pressure off of Matt Stafford. And just when the Beras are geared to stop the run, Calvin Johnson gets free for a long deep touchdown.

Oh my, the Lions strike first…emphatically!

The Bears try to answer, and actually use Forte a little bit with some success, but have to settle for a field goal after near interceptions from Cutler on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs stalling a good drive and settling for a field goal.

Not quite the answer Lovie was looking for, but he’ll take it—Lions 7-3.

On the ensuing kickoff, Aaron Brown goes almost untouched for a touchdown. The Bears are stunned and find themselves down 14-3 before they even know what happened. And now it’s up to Cutler to try and make something happen, lookout!

Over his career at Denver and in early sequences with Chicago, Cutler doesn’t respond well when behind. He tries to show off his arm, you know the arm he claimed in Denver that was stronger than Elway’s.  Even if it was, why say it in that city?  He then tries to squeeze one in a tight spot with two Lions draped over him and what do you know, picked off, and to make it fun let’s just say it goes for six.

The Bears try to respond through the air again, and connect on a 50 yard pass down the sideline to Johnny Knox, but then as time is winding down in the half, a series of three incompletions happens again for the anxious Cutler and the field goal unit comes out.

At halftime the Bears are booed off the field as the Lions have a nice 21-6 lead. They try and regroup, but too much pressure and weight is on the QB to make anything happen.

The Lions play ball control with Smith taking time off the clock until he breaks the Bears back by finally shaking a DB going the distance. Smith has been getting past the front seven on occasions, but has been stopped by the secondary. Last week against the Redskins he had several runs that he nearly broke in the first half. This time he goes the distance—Lions 28-6.

The Lions go into conservative mode and take more time off the clock. The Bears are able to get another field goal, but the pressure is mounting and the fans are lining out of the stadium with their final boo’s for Cutler.

After the stadium is nearly empty, the Lions give up a late TD pass to Cutler yet miss the two-point conversion, but it’s game-set-match anyway, Lions win 28-15 and are now tied with the Bears and soon to be Packers for second place.

Good Lucks Lions!

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Jets Calling Out The Pats: Are You Sure You Want That?

 

Japan’s great Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, is said to have made the statement, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve,” immediately following their attack on Pearl Harbor.

This week the New York Jets have freely, and openly, sent a message to the Patriots through the media. Whether it turns out to be the same fate suffered by Yamamoto’s squad, has yet to be seen, but it sure is making the game seem much more interesting now.

“It’s to the point where enough is enough,” said New York Jets free-safety Kerry Rhodes.

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

He also said that the Jets Defense would hit Tom Brady more than six times, the number of times that Brady was hit this past Monday night by the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Rhodes comments were made a day after new Head Coach Rex Ryan talked very positive in an emphatic manner that his Jets aren’t going to be bullied around anymore by the Patriots who have put a Beat-down on the Jets eight straight games at the Meadowlands.

“Talk is cheap,” Brady said Wednesday, referring to Ryan without even knowing what Rhodes said.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichik has shown Patriots the article and left it at that. None of the players had much to say regarding Rhodes comments.

You have to like the inspiration and motivation before games, but I don’t think it turns out too well for teams that call out the Patriots. It seems to make them stronger and more focused crusading with a common goal, yet not speaking about it and as a unit.

Remember Anthony Smith? He used to play the safety for Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007 he guaranteed a victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady responded with 399 yards and four touchdowns in the Patriots 24-13 win.

The most memorable moment, or response to bold statements, was when Brady threw one of his bombs, or the final nail in the coffin.

He proceeded to run down field towards the end-zone, found Smith after he‘d been burned, and gave him some choice words not meant for reporters. Brady yelled the message out personally to Smith, as if to say, “this how I‘ll call you out, on the field!”

I haven‘t heard much from Smith of late, but I‘m sure he‘ll think twice before making a statement against anyone, let alone the Patriots.

Perhaps this is the best way to get a team riddled with losses to change their psyche, but no one wants to be that guy that gets punked in front of millions by Brady. I guess those are the sacrifices that must be made if you’re trying change an overall mind set. The other way sure wasn’t working.

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Jets Call Out Patriots: Good Or Bad Idea?

Japan’s great Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, is said to have made the statement, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve,” immediately following their attack on Pearl Harbor.

This week, the New York Jets have freely, and openly, sent a message to the New England Patriots through the media. Whether it turns out to be the same fate suffered by Yamamoto’s squad has yet to be seen, but it sure is making the game seem much more interesting now.

“It’s to the point where enough is enough,” said New York Jets free-safety Kerry Rhodes.

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

He also said that the Jets Defense would hit Tom Brady more than six times, the number of times that Brady was hit this past Monday night by the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Rhodes comments were made a day after new Head Coach Rex Ryan talked very positive in an emphatic manner that his Jets aren’t going to be bullied around anymore by the Patriots who have put a Beat-down on the Jets eight straight games at the Meadowlands.

“Talk is cheap,” Brady said Wednesday, referring to Ryan without even knowing what Rhodes said.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichik has shown Patriots the article and left it at that. None of the players had much to say regarding Rhodes comments.

You have to like the inspiration and motivation before games, but I don’t think it turns out too well for teams that call out the Patriots. It seems to make them stronger and more focused crusading with a common goal, yet not speaking about it and as a unit.

Remember Anthony Smith? He used to play the safety for Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007, he guaranteed a victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady responded with 399 yards and four Touchdowns in the Patriots 34-13 win.

The most memorable moment, or response to bold statements, was when Brady threw one of his bombs; the final nail in the coffin.

He proceeded to run down field towards the end-zone, found Smith after he‘d been burned, and gave him some choice words not meant for reporters. Brady yelled the message out personally to Smith, as if to say, “This is how I‘ll call you out, on the field!”

I haven‘t heard much from Smith of late, but I‘m sure he‘ll think twice before making a statement against anyone, let alone the Patriots.

Perhaps this is the best way to get a team riddled with losses to change their psyche, but no one wants to be that guy that gets punked in front of millions by Brady. I guess those are the sacrifices that must be made if you’re trying to change an overall mind set. The other way sure wasn’t working.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Delaware Legal Sports Betting a Good Thing: NFL Doesn’t Think So

Ever since the 1958 NFL Championship game, which was the initial beginnings to televised Pro Football as we know it today, the league has taken all measures possible to distance itself from sports gambling.

That game was broadcast to a nationally televised audience by NBC and went into sudden death overtime in what is regarded as “The Greatest Game ever Played.”

The unofficial hush-hush reports from bookmakers across the major cities in America at the time was that business was huge and created whole new wave of new clients. At the same time, it also created a broad new interest for a league that lagged far behind baseball in popularity.

The point spread on the game was Baltimore around four points, give or take a half point. The alleged story goes that Colts owner Carroll Rosenbloom had a large bet on the game and informed his Head Coach, Weeb Ewbank, to not kick a field goal in sudden death, keep the drive alive, and get the touchdown so he could cover the spread rather than the easy field goal.

Johnny Unitas keeps them going and Alan Ameche goes in for the one yard dive to give the Colts a 23-17 victory, but even more important to the many new bettors out there, they covered.

The alleged story was kept very quiet at the time, maybe by the league itself and also a combination of not having today’s modern era of investigative, sensationalized media. However, many years later, the story did come out and the league was quick to refute the speculation and the source.

They have an image to protect, and rightfully so. They need the public to know that the integrity of their sport will never be compromised by someone being in on a fix whether it’s shaving points, throwing a game, or just betting on games period.

The league has gone so far in the past as to protect their integrity that they have suspended two of its star players for wagering. In 1963, Paul Hornung and Alex Karras were suspended for a year because of betting on games and associating with known gamblers.

Sports betting and Pro Football go hand in hand whether the NFL wants to admit it or not. Betting on sports, illegally and legally, is a massive market. Part of that allure and attraction by fans to the NFL is because of people all over the country, and now the world, have a little action on the games.

Blowout games still have interest for many because of the point spread or game totals. Against the wishes of the league, Al Michaels on Sunday and Monday Night Football telecasts has always gave the wink-wink hint near the end of games signifying if a game was truly “Over” or not.

Fantasy Football and bet pools all across the country are forms of gambling that have kept the league thriving because of the fans strong enough interest and willingness to spend some of their hard earned money in any form due to their fondness of the game.

The NFL even offers a fantasy football page on their official web-site that allows fans to pick their rosters and form leagues while they keep track of all the stats. Very convenient for the fan for sure, but very naïve of the league to think fantasy footballers aren’t wagering.

In recent years the league has vigorously gone after Las Vegas and other legal Nevada sports books in a move to further disassociate themselves from gambling. Despite a willingness to pay the enormous Super Bowl television advertising fees, the NFL will not let any Las Vegas commercials air on their featured broadcasts.

Some of the other threats that the league has done to Vegas ranges from breaking up Super Bowl Parties in Vegas and mandating DirecTV charge an absurd amount for their Sunday Ticket packages. They have also sent NFL agents to sports books in hopes of finding any kind of infringement of NFL trade marks, logos, or team names being used.

The ironic part about the league’s dislike for Vegas is that it’s legal. It’s not an illegal operation like the many off-shore sports books that have rented out booths in the Super Bowl fan fests every year. If anything, the league should be going after those operations in the Caribbean with all their mite. Any funds that are wagered there, stay there and are not taxed.

The NFL also doesn’t understand how regulated a legal sports betting operation is in Nevada. If there is any semblance of a fix going on in any sport, Nevada knows first and reports the irregular activities.

College scandals at Arizona State and in the MAC conference have all been uncovered and reported to the NCAA. If Nevada were not around as a police agency and suspect bets were taken by Vinnie the bookie, no one would ever know. You think Vinnie is going to reveal his operation and cooperate?

The NFL’s new venture in their stance against gambling is attempting to stop legalized wagering on their events in Delaware, in particular single-game wagering.

Delaware recently passed a bill that would allow for sports betting on professional teams. Only four states have that grandfathered ability, Nevada, Delaware, Oregon and Montana, as a result of legislation passed in 1992. All 50 states had the ability to ask for the right to be placed on the bill at the time, when only Nevada was looking to exercise their right into business practice.

Of the four states permitted, only Nevada has a special exception made for them that would allow for single-game wagering while the other states can offer pools, lotteries, or parlays on the pro games. Delaware recently changed verbiage within their legislation and wishes to offer single-game wagers at their area casinos and race tracks.

The NFL has now countered and filed papers with the Delaware Supreme Court to stop the single-game betting with hopes that Delaware’s recent amendments somehow goes against the state’s constitution.

Come on NFL, lighten up. Delaware sports betting regulations will be just as good as Nevada’s and maybe even stronger because of their infancy stage. More east coast money will be bet legally, more taxes will be paid, and best of all, more money stays in the United States.

It’s obvious the leagues concern isn’t about keeping the money in the states as evident by how they have shopped our greatest game, the Super Bowl, all over the world along with the giant voided economic impact it has on any American city that doesn’t get it.

It’s likely that this is all a show and an exhibition of showing everyone, and it’s players, just how hard a stance the league takes against gambling on their sport. It’s sort of a marketing ploy for internal and external participants.

What would be real amazing is if critical things such as injury reports and point-spreads were not made available to the public. Open any newspaper in America and you’ll find point-spreads of all the NFL games, even though wagering is legal only in Nevada.

If the NFL was truly serious about their stance on gambling on their events, then why not use some of their mite to stop media outlets carrying something in their papers that can’t be acted on, legally.

The mandated injury report release for Thursday, prior to a teams weekend game, is very curious. With the new age things of technology such as e-mail, it might be a good idea to just have each coach mail each other their report and copy the league office instead of reporting it to the entire nation.

To stop this gambling fad on the NFL, who is injured to degrees of probable, questionable, and doubtful is a major tool for the current bettor to have.

Whether they want to deny it or not, the NFL knows that fans betting on their sport is good for business. It keeps ratings up and interest in every game for an entire season.

Opening up a whole new venue in Delaware allowing fans to gather, mingle, and wager on the sport they love is not a bad thing and in the long run, could be very beneficial for the league and a small segment of America’s economy.

Week One NFL Vegas Lines: It’s Never Too Early

I made my monthly visit to Las Vegas this week with the only intention of playing some horses at the Race Book, hanging with some buddies, and letting loose with some alcohol beverages. I was staying at the Palms, which is a very nice property with several amenities most hotels don‘t have, most of which include the best group of beautiful women I have ever seen assembled anywhere.

As I go get my daily racing form and scratch sheets, I stop by the sports book to check out the wagering menu. With the NBA and NHL seasons over, the only real thing to wager on was Baseball and the upcoming NASCAR race. Then I came across and NFL sheet, where I expected it to be odds on the Super Bowl and conference titles, but low and behold, it was week one lines for the regular season.

So I grabbed a sheet and started to go over all the games while sitting in the race book getting served free Bud Light’s one after another, an amenity for being a horse race player. I figured it’s not too early to have an opinion on these games, so I might as well make some plays, even though I‘ll be back next month.

The advantage of playing early is that if I’m right on my plays, there could be a huge disparity on the point spread by the time Sept. 10 actually rolls around. All I’m looking to do is play key numbers centered around “three” and “seven,” because those are the most common numbers that games land on.

Last season, over 20 percent of the games landed on either “three” or “seven.” In 2004, the ratio was over 27 percent of the games.

If I get the line to move in my favor, I may bet the other side and attempt a middle if it straddles one of those two numbers. Should the game land on the most likely finish spread in the NFL, I could win both bets, or push on one.

In 2004, I had a really good season playing early in the week with games around “three.” I’d lay -2.5 early in the week, and then on game day when the line moved, I’d come back and take +3.5 on the same game with the other team.

It doesn’t always work out, but when factoring in the 10 percent juice lost when only one side won, the percentage on games that landed on three were far greater than the juice loss of games that didn‘t.

I tried it last season, and basically with minimal no real win or loss, just an overall push.

I don’t have the benefit of seeing any preseason games, but I feel pretty confident that based on knowing every teams key departures and additions, the possible impact rookies, and who did well last year not just in the win-loss column but also quality losses where they played well, that I should have enough of an educated guess to feel confident enough to lay down my hard-earned money three months before the games begin.

Here’s a complete list of Week One NFL Lines courtesy of the Palms:

 

Thursday, Sept. 10

Titans @ Steelers (-5 o/u 36)

The Titans are the last team to beat the Steelers. They didn’t just beat them, they humiliated them in the Week 16 matchup in Nashville.

The Super Bowl Champions used to perform poorly in their home openers when it was on Monday Night, but the Thursday Night kickoff to the season has fared well for the defending champs. Last season, the Giants played a tough low-scoring game against Washington, but won and covered. The year before, the Colts dismantled the Saints.

I’ll look for the Titans to fall off a bit from 2008, where they reeled off ten straight wins to start the season.

While the Titans have a solid game plan with two great running backs and a stingy defense, I have a hard time believing that Kerry Collins can duplicate his error-free type of leadership exhibited last season. If Vince Young somehow beats him out, the line will be closer to “seven.”

Tennessee also comes into the season with a new defensive coordinator, which surely can’t make them better.

I’ll take the Steelers in a game that should go over the total.

Pick: Steelers 27-16

　

Sunday, Sept. 13

Dolphins @ Falcons (-3.5 o/u 42)

The Dolphins may have been the best overachievers in the league last season, while the Falcons dominated at home thanks to Michael Turner being unstoppable in the dome.

The Dolphins were 5-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog, while the Falcons were only 3-3 vs. the spread as a home favorite, despite going 7-1 overall at home.

Many believe the Falcons will be one of those teams who overachieved last season that will stumble in 2009, but the Dolphins are in the same boat.

The home field is the difference here. I hate to lay the hook over “three,” but the game seems closer to a six-point spread than four, so I’ll lay the value.

Pick: Falcons 24-14

Chiefs @ Ravens (-7.5 o/u 37.5)

This is a huge test right out the gate for any new coaching staff and quarterback to deal with.

The Ravens defense is the source for such a high spread because their offense doesn’t move the ball so swiftly.

Matt Cassell will perform well this season, but not against the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens 20-10

Eagles @ Panthers (-2 o/u 44)

Big test for the Eagles early, who have expectations of winning the NFC.

Last year, the Super Bowl was supposed to go through the Panthers home field, and Arizona got five gift wrapped packages from Jake Delhomme. Surprisingly, Delhomme is still the starter this season. He’s got two super talented backs behind him, and hopefully he can shrug off the playoff performance and just throw the ball to Steve Smith.

Brian Westbrook is supposed to be back 100 percent for this game after surgery, but I find it hard to believe. McNabb has some nice new weapons also through the draft that add to his arsenal.

I still look for the Panthers to bounce back with the 1-2 punch of their running attack, even against a good defense like Philly. A game like this also has the possibility of going to “three” or higher, especially if Westbrook’s status for the worse becomes more clear during preseason.

Pick: Panthers 34-21

Broncos @ Bengals (pk o/u 45)

These two teams have had some major turmoil and can’t wait to get on the field and play.

Both defenses are not famed for stopping many teams, which should see lots of points scored.

The new system in Denver should be fine by then with Kyle Orton running a similar quick-hitting offense like he ran at Purdue, where he excelled. If Chicago taught him anything as a winning quarterback, it was patience.

Chad Ochocinco admits to his past faults and says he needs to step it up and show his teammates he means business. He’ll be able to look much better having a healthy Carson Palmer throw to him.

Don’t really like a side in this spot, but do like the total to go over 45.

Pick: Broncos 33-31

Vikings (-2.5 o/u 40) @ Browns:

Brett Favre likely will be there, and all the hoopla surrounding him will be a distraction for the team that is still Adrian Peterson’s.

The real story of the game is Cleveland falling in love again with their own Brady Quinn. He showed flashes last season before getting injured, and I see him a great opener with the crowd behind him louder than ever.

Peterson will get his 100 yards, but the Browns scrap one out and get the straight up (SU) win as a dog.

Pick: Browns 23-20

 

Jets @ Texans (-3.5 o/u 44)

Last season, the Jets played very well on the road as an underdog. The combination of Thomas Jones’ effective running and a tough defense served them well.

Gary Kubiak and the Texans have underperformed every year, but showed signs late last season of breaking out with their three-headed monster on offense and one of the greatest young pool of defensive talent in the league.

The combination of Matt Shaub, Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton should allow Kubiak’s creative mind to score all season at will. The Texans also have the benefit of opening at home this season after playing their first three in 2008 on the road.

I see the Texans being more prepared for this game than Rex Ryan’s new staff and Kellen Clemens starting at quarterback. It’s typically a good spot to take the +3.5, but there just seems to be too much going against the Jets in this one.

PICK: Texans 28-16

Jaguars @ Colts (-7 o/u 44)

A new era begins for the Colts, but the point spread still reflects the Colts of old we all know.

Last season, the Colts were six-point favorite in a Week 3 matchup in Indy that the Jaguars pulled out 23-21.

Now, in 2009, the hungry, disappointed Jags get seven against a team they feel very comfortable with, especially Maurice Jones-Drew, who has had some of his best career games against the Colts.

I like teams that underachieved the year before and taking them in over inflated lines, because the public doesn’t believe in them any more. Look for an inspired performance from Jack Del Rio’s crew against a Dungy-less Colts.

PICK: Jaguars 26-21

 

Lions @ Saints (-11.5 o/u 49)

This is a tough one to gauge because of the quarterback situation in Detroit.

Not that Duante Culpepper is anything special, but first-time starters on the road in the NFL, usually lose badly. However, Matthew Stafford may be forced into that position as starter, which could continue their losing streak longer. Culpepper at least gives the team a veteran presence and may give them their best opportunity to break the streak.

As bad as the Lions were last season, they still had the best road record ATS as an underdog in the league at 6-1. There were a few occasions that they actually made some pretty good teams sweat in front of their own fans.

The Saints faced the Lions in Week 16 last season and pasted them 42-7.

Unlike some of the other teams who changed staffs, I’ll look for improvements and a different mind-set for the Lions that will keep them somewhat competitive at least early on in the season.

PICK: Saints 31-24

Cowboys (-3 o/u 42) @ Buccaneers

So this is the new and improved Cowboys; the team that let loose 39 receiving touchdowns and over 3,000 receiving yards from the last three seasons, and they replaced him with…Roy Williams?

This may be the year that Tony Romo is exposed for who he is, which is just a barely better than average quarterback. Terrell Owens may have been easy to point fingers at after the roof caved in, but he sure could get open deep and make Romo’s job look easy after getting a nice lead.

The Bucs have a new coaching staff, and according to many on the team, the change is for the better. While Jon Gruden may have hurt some feelings, his teams always played a good brand of defense.

That shouldn’t change with Raheem Morris taking over, but they have more question marks on offense than ever before. Who is going to quarterback for the Bucs? They have about five choices right now, with it likely to come between three.

Dallas started last season with a good game plan on the road that ended in victory. This is a similar spot for the Cowboys, but with way more pressure on them.

The Bucs seem to be in this quarterback quandary each year, but fare well, such as winning their last two home openers against great offenses.

Even though I like the Bucs in the spot, I’ll take the Cowboys because I know this is a game that the public will push to 3.5 easy by game day, and possibly hit my middle if the Cowboys win by three.

PICK: Cowboys 17-14

49ers @ Cardinals (-6.5 o/u 47)

This will be the fourth straight season these two teams have kicked off their seasons together. Because of the Cardinals run last season and 49ers coach Mike Singletary’s obvious change for the better there, this game has more intrigue than any of the previous three seasons.

The Cardinals had a fantastic final run in the playoffs, but lets not forget about who the Cardinals really are which was a 9-7 team that caught fire and peaked at the right time. The biggest streak buster is a week off, and by the time they play this game, it’ll be closer to 34 weeks off.

If we look at the Cardinals as the team who we thought they were, Week 15 and 16 last season says it all. They got blasted at home by the Vikings and then whacked in the snow by New England 47-7.

I like the rivalry here and believe the game will be played closer than the spread indicates. By game day, the line should be seven or higher because of the public push for a team they’re very familiar with, cashing throughout the playoffs.

PICK: 49ers 27-24

Redskins @ Giants (-5.5 o/u 40)

A classic NFC East battle with two teams that faded down the stretch of 2008 after tremendous starts. The Giants won both meetings last season, holding the Redskins to only seven points in each contest.

The Giants get to start fresh and rid themselves of the Burress shadow that coincided with the Giants demise after starting the season so spectacularly. The line looks a little light here for the Giants home opener.

PICK: Giants 27-10

Rams @ Seahawks (-6.5 o/u 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck appears healthy and ready to go for new coach Jim Mora, Jr., which should be good signs for a proud franchise.

The Rams, on the other hand, will likely take the crown from Detroit as the league’s worst team, despite having perhaps the best all-around back in football with Steven Jackson. The problem with Jackson is that he just doesn’t play enough, and when he is in there, the games have been such blowouts that a running game doesn’t make sense.

Laying 6.5 with Seattle looks like a good option in what will likely be seven or higher by game day. This might be the pick of the day.

PICK: Seahawks 34-16

Bears @ Packers (-3 o/u 43)

Two of the better quarterbacks in the game will square off in one of the league’s classic rivalries. Last season the two split, winning on their home field. The one played in Green Bay was a 37-3 massacre, with the game in Chicago a three-point win.

The Packers will come in with their arsenal of weapons and a more comfortable Aaron Rodgers, while the Bears come in with Jay Cutler and the same bad corps of receivers. Cutler will still have their leading receiver from 2008 there in running back Matt Forte, a bad sign for any team, but may have help on the way with either Plaxico Burress or Brandon Marshall as week one gets closer.

Last seasons week 11 meeting had the Packers as 4.5 point favorites in Green Bay, which shows the value of Cutler already on the point spread. Cutler will have to play one of his best mentally tough games of his career in this game because of all the pressure he’s placed on his shoulders. In pressure cooked games of the past, like winning just one game in the final three to secure a playoff spot last year, Cutler has failed miserably.

Game day spread will straddle “three” and be closer to “four” because it is the Sunday night get back game, which means after everyone has bet and lost from the entire schedule of Sunday morning games, they have to bet this game to get back what they lost. In most cases of the “get back game“, the home favorite is always bet.

PICK: Packers 34-17

 

Monday, Sept. 14

Bills @ Patriots (-10 o/u 46)

Welcome back Tom Brady, we’ve been waiting for you and your double-digit point spreads that your excellence brings with it. After a solid 2008 with Matt Cassell getting very comfortable for the Pats, they now get their leader and with it comes the confident swagger and psychological edge.

In two games against Buffalo in 2008, the Patriots won by 10 and 13 points respectively, with one being a shutout.

Regardless of Terrell Owens, the Bills will be in for a hurting as the home opening New England crowd welcomes their prince back home. Ten points may not be enough in this game, but after this dismantling, we’ll start to get those 2007 14-point spreads real quick.

PICK: Patriots 37-13

Chargers (-6.5 o/u 44) @ Raiders

The Chargers started last season off with two last-second, heart-breaking losses to begin the year.

In Week 4, the Chargers went to Oakland as eight-point favorites and won by 10 to take their record to 2-2.

All of a sudden, this year, the Chargers haven’t lost any games yet, and the season opener in Oakland is 6.5 points. The Raiders must have really improved through that stellar draft to close the gap between them and the class of the division that quickly.

Perhaps this is the year JaMarcus Russell actually steps up and makes Al Davis right by selecting him first in the draft, but that is pure speculative with no basis or past showings to make anyone think Russell improves drastically.

The Chargers we know are good, and it’s not a stretch at all to believe they could reel off six straight wins before they race Oakland again in San Diego.

There is great value with Chargers right now, as the game likely gets closer to eight by game day, which is a Monday Night doubleheader and a double get back game for all those that had the Bears the previous night.

It’s not quite as bad as the beat down Denver opened on them in last years Monday night game, but it’s close.

PICK: Chargers 38-21

I’ll be visiting Vegas again next month, and I’ll check on the progress of the Palms week one lines. Thus far, I think I’ve got a nice mix of possible upsets, underdogs covering, and home teams winning. It’s easy to look at the games and say this team should beat that team easy, but once the spread is attached, it really makes it tough.

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010