Looking Towards the Future: 2010 NFL Mock Draft

Some teams have locked up playoff berth,some are still in the hunt, and yet some are reserving their offseason vacations. But all 32 teams are looking forward to April 22, where their franchises next stars will be selected in the NFL Draft. This year is heavy on lineman, particularly pass rushers, but after going through each team’s needs, I decided to put most of them off to the second round (because of their abundance and lack of top-end talent, teams could wait and get one in the second round).

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Caldwell Follows Dungy’s Lead: Because It Worked So Well Before?

So, the last of the unbeatens fell. Unlike last week, this time the head coach seemed to almost rather have it that way.

Jim Caldwell pulled his star players (at least on offense) out of the game halfway through the third quarter with a 15-10 lead over the Jets. And thus, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, and Reggie Wayne watched as rookie Curtis Painter’s fumble returned-touchdown gave the Jets an 18-15 lead, which turned into a 29-15 loss.

And why not? Caldwell said weeks ago that he would continue that strategy of Tony Dungy, resting his players before the playoffs after they’ve clinched the top seed. That didn’t surprise many people, and therefore this didn’t surprise anybody.

Except in this case, I do have to ask, “Why?”

All decade we’ve seen the Colts dominate the regular season, only to fall short of the ultimate goal. Coach Tony Dungy played the same tune every year, clinching the top seed and resting Peyton Manning and Co. in the last week or two.

But no one every questioned it, because it was the accepted thing to do. Rest your players for the playoffs: the games that actually matter.

There are two advantages to resting players: getting them some rest to recuperate from the long season, and keeping them injury-free.

And this is why I don’t get the decision to sit the stars. Rest? You’ll get that during the bye. two weeks is plenty of rest: anything more than that and players start to lose their edge.

Keeping from injury is the part that normally I’d understand. As we’ve seen so many times, an injury to the wrong player can cripple a team (Tom Brady in 2008, Bob Sanders in 2006).

That being said, I think there are only two players that are valuable enough to be rested to be protected from injury: Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark.

That’s not to say other players aren’t important, but injuries are rare enough in the NFL that i don’t think its worth throwing away an undefeated season to protect anybody else from injury. Reggie Wayne? Borderline. But Peyton Manning makes everyone around him good enough he wouldn’t be as missed as he would on another team.

Dwight Freeney? Also borderline, but as long as they have either him or Robert Mathis on the field, they’re going to get pressure. But I wouldn’t object to resting either of those two. I don’t object to the resting of Dallas Clark either.

But Peyton’s a different story. As long as he’s on the field, the Colts will be the better team. He’s that good. So i would understand resting him except for one thing: Calvin Pace’s sack of Curtis Painter on his first drive was the first the Colts had allowed in over 150 dropbacks. That’s the equivalent of three, maybe four, maybe even five or six games.

So with Peyton barely taking any hits during the course of a game, where’s the injury risk? Why not go for the undefeated season?

It’s the only thing this Colt’s team hasn’t achieved during this Manning era, and therefore, it will be considered incomplete. Because Brady and the Patriots were able to do it, so should Manning and the Colts. I just don’t get the lack of desire to do something only two teams have ever done.

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Packers’ Loss to The Steelers a Blessing in The Long Run?

After a last-play loss to the already elminated Pittsburgh Steelers, the Packers are sitting at 9-5 and holding down the 5th seed in the NFC, the same place they were on Sunday morning.

While the loss was heartbreaking for Packer fans everywhere and probably did quite a bit of harm to their blood-pressure levels, let’s sit back and look at what the loss does for Green Bay’s playoff chances.

Entering the week, the Packers needed to win out while the Minnesota Vikings needed to lose their remaining three games to win the NFC North title, and with Minnesota playing the lowly Bears next week, those chances were extremely slim. So the wild-card is the only option.

Currently Green Bay holds the tiebreaker over Dallas, whom they are tied with at 9-5 and is holding the other wild-card spot. The Packers have games remaining vs Seattle and at Arizona. Assuming Arizona rests players as they will already have the 4th seed clinched, there are two wins, making the Pack finish at 11-5.

12-4 would still put the Packers in the same seed, with the division title out of reach and no team able to reach them for the wild-card. So the outcome of this game meant nothing really.

This is a perfect place for the Packers to find themselves in. A game against a good opponent to allow the team to see where they stand as a playoff contender. So what did we learn?

The Packers ranking as a top three defense in the NFL is an illusion, created by playing a lot of poor offensive teams. Two games against the Bears and Lions, as well as games against the Browns, Rams, 49ers will deflate yards allowed and inflate turnover ratio.

Against good teams, such as the Vikings, Bengals, Ravens, and now the Steelers, show this defense for what it is: a decent unit with ballhawking defensive backs and a front seven that can get to the quarterback.

It’s a unit that can be very dominating, but needs work. The game proved that this team cannot get away with rushing three on obvious passing downs. Yes, they got penetration, but they need more.

Blitzing four gives the Pack a great chance at creating pressure, as the offensive line probably won’t be able to block B.J. Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Clay Matthews, and Johnny Jolly consistently. But Ben Roethlisberger proved that three does not do the job.

However, the most important thing the Packers can take away from this game is our biggest draft need: cornerback. They can’t cover without Al Harris, the best they can do is shut down half the field with Charles Woodson.

Now, Harris is 36 and coming off a torn ACL, so he might not be back. While Woodson is putting together a Defensive MVP year, he’s not getting any younger.

The Packers have young corners in Tramon Williams, Jarret Bush and Josh Bell, but after Williams, there’s not much talent there. This is the biggest problem that needs addressing in the draft, and the Packers were lucky to have it presented so clearly to them before draft time.

The offensive line still needs to be addressed, but is not as much of an immediate need as corner proved to be.

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Packers-Bears Preview: It All Comes Down to the Packers D

For only the third time in NFL history, perhaps the most storied rivalry in the NFL will be on display in Week 1.

Both the Bears and the Packers made a major change in philosophy during the off-season, and our first look at these changes will come in a game that comes with enough standard hype.

The Bears made one of the biggest trades in franchise history in acquiring what fans hope to be their first franchise QB in too long.

The Packers, after an anemic defense was the biggest reason for the lack of a playoff birth, hired 3-4 guru Dom Capers to provide a new look.

The two teams figure to be two-thirds of a three-team race for the NFC North, and this game is huge for both teams, as both teams have tough Week 2 matchups: Chicago plays the reigning champion Pittsburgh Steelers, and Green Bay faces a resurgent Bengals team, whose offense will test the new Green Bay defense.

So in order to see who starts the season in style, lets take a look at the key matchups.

 

Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago secondary

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers put together a phenomenal season in his first as a full-time starter, throwing for 4,000 yards, racking up 32 total touchdowns, and perhaps most importantly, outperforming Brett Favre’s disappointing season in New York.

Last time the Bears visited Lambeau, Rodgers led an attack that handed Chicago their worst loss since Lovie Smith took over the head-coaching duties four seasons ago (37-3).

His top two receivers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, are one of the better tandems in the game, and proved it last season by totaling a combined 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns.

They face a battered Chicago secondary, who may have to start a disappointing Nathan Vasher and inexperienced Trumaine Mcbride, with top CB Charles Tillman questionable.

Safeties Daniel Manning and Kevin Payne are solid but not spectacular. Payne is more of a hard-hitting run-stopper, while Manning is better in coverage. This potentially leaves one half of the field vulnerable to the Packers aerial attack, and Rodgers was very good with the deep ball last year.

 

Packers O-line vs. Bears D-line

Historically, the defensive line has been a strong point for the Bears defense, but an absent pass rush led to problems against the passing game last year.

Fortunately for the Bears, management brought in Rod Marinelli as D-line coach, and he should bring improvement in that area.

The Packers line this year will be characterized by its youth and inexperience, starting Daryn Colledge at LG, Jason Spitz at C, Josh Sitton at RG, and Allen Barbre at RT; none of the four are past their fifth year in the league.

LT Chad Clifton brings a familiar veteran presence to the line, as he’s been a solid staple at the position for years.

Marinelli should have the big names on the Bears line playing better this year, as Mark Anderson, Tommie Harris, and Alex Brown haven’t lived up to the hype they earned in earlier seasons.

The Packers zone blocking scheme will need to be at its best to give Rodgers time to throw and RB Ryan Grant holes to run through.

Overall Packers on Offense: Expect Aaron Rodgers to carry the load for the Packers, and expect a heavy dose of the vertical passing game with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver up the sideline and new weapon Jermichael Finley testing the middle of the field.

Ryan Grant could provide a good complement and keep the defense honest providing the line plays well. There will be points scored.

 

Matt Forte vs Packers Front 7

Rookie RB Matt Forte was the key cog in the Bears offense last season, accounting for a higher percentage of his team’s total yards than any other player in the NFL. The addition of Cutler should only help, keeping defenses from stacking the box against him.

The Packers move to the 3-4, which provides for more creativity with the play-calling and blitz packages.

Because of the Packers secondary, where three out of the four starters have represented Green Bay at the Pro Bowl, including FS Nick Collins and former Heisman Trophy winner Charles Woodson last year, the Bears vertical passing game will be all but nonexistent.

Despite the speed of Devin Hester, the Bears don’t have a receiver capable of keeping the Pack from double teaming Hester, as all the Packer’s corners, including nickelback Tramon Williams, excel in man-to-man coverage.

This puts all the more pressure on Forte to be able to move the ball with the short receiving game and running attack, against which the Packers struggled last year.

Forte will need to be able to find holes to run through and keep the chains moving in order for the offense to keep up with the Packers’ attack.

 

Bears’ TEs against Packers’ LBs

The Bears feature perhaps the best TE duo in the league, with both Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark acting as both receiving threats and capable blockers.

Olsen’s size and speed made him a talking point throughout the preseason, as he looks poised for a breakout year.

On paper, the Packers LB’s are deep, with many players who will be able to rotate in and out. However, for this game they may be at a disadvantage.

Aaron Kampman is inexperienced at pass coverage, as he will be a Demarcus Ware or Shawne Merriman LB, used primarily as a pash rusher.

Nick Barnett, a solid starter for a couple years at MLB, may or may not be fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered last season, and ILB Desmond Bishop has shown well as a pass rushing LB, but he hasn’t stood out in coverage.

Clay Matthews is also recovering from injury, and his rotation partner Jeremy Thompson is a converted DE, so he’s in a similar situation as Kampman.

The best the Packers have to combat the Bears’ TE threats is so far disappointing AJ Hawk and Brandon Chillar. Hawk looks to live up to the hype that came with being the fifth overall pick in 2006.

His transition into the inside, along with help from new LB coach Kevin Greene, should better utilize the speed and skills that made him a standout LB at Ohio State. Chillar is historically a cover LB, who played well in pre-season.

The Packers will need to be able to cover the Bears’ TE if they want to win this game. if the Packers can limit their effectiveness, they will be allowed to bring SS Atari Bigby into the box to contain Matt Forte.

Overall, it will come down to the Packers’ LBs covering the Bears’ TEs (and Forte coming out of the backfield). The Packers offense, one of the best in the league last year, will be good again and will put up points.

If the defense can show improvements from last year, the game will be the Packers’ to lose. If they struggle to transition quickly to the 3-4, the Bears’ weapons will take advantage.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 20

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