AFC East Quarterbacks in 2009: Fantasy Rankings

The AFC East features the best QB in the NFL, two others who are steady but unspectacular for your fantasy team, and a rookie.

1. Tom Brady

The encore to his record-breaking, 50 TD season was a severe knee injury in week one that put Brady out for the entire 2008 season, with some concern that it would carry into this season.

But from the little we saw of a recent minicamp workout, he appears to be ahead of schedule and set to go from the start.

If so, with Moss, Welker, and now Galloway—who’ll most likely be called upon to run post patterns—look for another top-tier season with over 4,000 yards and 35-40 TDs.

Trent Edwards

In his brief two-year career, Edwards has been efficient, but not flashy. The system and personnel have deterred big numbers, and in 2008 he finished with 2,699 yards and 11 TDs.

This year, things could be vastly different. Owens arrival gives Edwards a huge target to throw to and makes Evans more dangerous. And with RB Lynch out for the first three games, the passing game should be more relied on. Look for a big step forward with over 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.

Chad Pennington

Pennington is as steady as they come and an extremely cerebral QB. That’s not the problem; the problem is he lacks a big arm and rarely posts the numbers you need to be a top-flight fantasy QB.  He still managed over 3,600 yards and 19 TDs.

This year it looks like more of the same, or a slight drop off, as the Dolphins have the league’s toughest schedule. But some of the younger receivers (Ginn, Camarillo) are maturing, and that could lead to some big plays. Look for another 3,250-3,500 yards and 17-20 TDs.

Mark Sanchez

In two years, he’ll probably be second on this list. But not as a rookie. The first round pick from USC has a very strong arm, pinpoint accuracy, and is a great all-around athlete. However, he will be utilized much like Joe Flacco was in year one, as a game manager.

Expect between 2,000-2,500 yards and 10-12 TDs.

Draft Tip

Brady went as high as No. 2 in the draft last year but won’t go until round two this year, as there’s still concern over his knee. Edwards and Pennington will go around the same time, probably after round eight. Sanchez will only be drafted as a number three with the hopes that he turns out like Matt Ryan, which is extremely unlikely.

Fantasy Rankings: AFC North Quarterbacks In 2009

The AFC North is an interesting division that possess two top fantasy QB’s, and two others with potential. While Carson Palmer is probably the best of the bunch, at this point, Big Ben gets the nod.

 

1. Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger will enter his sixth full season in the league as the proud owner of two Super Bowl rings after his Steelers defeated the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.

In 2008, he threw for over 3,300 yards with 19 total TDs, two coming via the run.

This year, the same cast of characters are back, but Santonio Holmes is a year older and more dangerous. Big Ben’s offensive weapons remain intact and strong.

Look for 3,500 yards and over 23 TDs from Big Ben this season.

 

2. Carson Palmer

Palmer is the most talented QB in the division, but he’s stuck on a horrible team. When healthy, he’s right there in the conversation with Manning, Brady and Brees.

Last year, a lingering elbow injury forced him to miss 12 games.

After an offseason to strengthen his elbow, Palmer is healthy, and Ochocinco looks like he’s raring to go.

Mix that in with some of the younger receivers and look for a nice comeback season. He will get over 3,500 yards with 20-25TDs.

 

3. Joe Flacco

For most of his rookie season, he wasn’t called upon to do much, aside from managing the offense and not making mistakes.

Towards the end, as Flacco’s confidence grew, OC Cam Cameron opened up the playbook ever so slightly. Flacco produced, finishing with just under 3,000 yards and 16 total TDs, two coming via the run.

While this will still be a team that relies on its running game and defense to win games, look for another step forward in year two with over 3,000 yards and between 18 to 20 TDs.

 

4. Derek Anderson

Brady Quinn could certainly end up as the starter, and if so, our projections wouldn’t differ too drastically, but our thinking is that Anderson’s the better QB, and his problems last year were due to a horrendous offensive unit and the incessant drops by WR Braylon Edwards in crucial situations.

The forecast in the Dawg Pound isn’t very bright this season, as the team dealt TE Winslow to the Bucs, and WR Stallworth is suspended indefinitely.

Regardless, look for a team that relies heavily on the run, and for Anderson or Quinn to throw for 2,500-2,700 yards with 15-18 TDs.

 

Draft Tip

Roethlisberger will probably be selected before Palmer. His name will be called from round four on.

Palmer, coming off a serious injury, will probably last until round six, and could potentially be an excellent fantasy sleeper.

Flacco will be available after round ten, and you should be able to scoop up Anderson or Quinn at the end of the draft.

Fantasy Rankings: Peyton Manning Is The Class of AFC South QBs in 2009

In this division, it all starts and ends with Peyton Manning for fantasy QBs—as it has for the last decade. From that point on, it’s mostly guys who can be used as fill-ins when a starter is down or for favorable match-ups.

 

Fantasy Rankings: NFC West Quarterbacks in 2009

The NFC West features one of the top fantasy QBs in the game, two others trying to atone for a poor 2008, and an excellent potential sleeper.

 

1. Kurt Warner

Warner had a tremendous season in 2008. Playing with a wealth of talent at the receiver position, and on a team which abandoned the run, the 37-year old vet threw for more than 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, much to fantasy owners’ delight.

A repeat of those numbers in 2009 will be hard to duplicate however. First, there’s always the Super Bowl hangover, and second, there have been some key losses to personnel. The selection of RB Beanie Wells in the first round also suggests that the team will be more committed to the run, so look for between 3,600-3,900 yards and 25-28 TDs.

 

2. Matt Hasselback

Hasselback suffered through a miserable 2008 season and missed a lot of time battling a lingering injury. He finished with just 1,200 yards and five TDs in seven games.

This year, he should be healthy once again, so now it’s a matter of getting back in sync with his receivers and quickly developing a rapport with T.J. Houshmandezadeh.

Blessed with an extremely easy  schedule, look for another 3,000-yard season and 20 TDs.

 

3. Marc Bulger

Bulger suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign as well, at one point being benched by then head coach, Scott Linehan. He finished with a little more than 2,700 yards and 11 TDs.

And this year, a familiar face will no longer be there: Torry Holt, who was a salary cap casualty.

While second-year receiver Donnie Avery does provide promise, look for the Rams to rely heavily on the running game and for Bulger’s numbers to remain middle of the pack: 3,000 yards and 15-18 TDs.

 

4. Shaun Hill

In 2008, once the J.T. O’sullivan experiment came to an end, which also coincided with the firing of Mike Nolan, Hill came on and finished with more than 2,000 yards and 13 TDs in just eight games.

This year, he has even more firepower at the skill positions. The Niners used the 10th overall pick on Michael Crabtree. They have second-year receiver Josh Morgan raring to go, and there’s hope that Singletary will finally help Vernon Davis begin to realize his potential.

Look for Hill to throw for more than 2,750 yards and 18 TDs.

 

Draft Tip

Warner could be the fourth overall QB drafted, and gone by Round Four. Hasselback and Bulger are no longer considered quality fantasy starters and will fall past Round Eight. Hill, who could be a decent fantasy sleeper, will probably be around at the end, or as a waiver wire pick-up.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC North Quarterbacks in 2009

The NFC North is one of the weaker divisions in football and has only one blue chip fantasy QB in 2009.

 

1. Aaron Rodgers

Any fears that Green Bay fans had last year of whether the franchise would survive the loss of Brett Favre, were erased by the stellar play of Rodgers.

While the team suffered through a horrendous 2008 campaign, it was NOT because of the play at the QB position. In his first year as a full-time starter, he finished the season with over 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.

Having already developed an excellent rapport with both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and with the expected maturation of the younger receivers, look for another 4,000 yard season and between 28-32 TDs.

 

Jay Cutler

Cutler certainly possesses the strongest arm in the division and had an excellent fantasy season in 2008, finishing with over 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. But that was Denver, and this is Chicago. The drop off from Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler to Hester, Davies, and Iglesias is substantial.

Another issue he’ll now have to contend with is the weather of Soldier Field. Frigid temperatures and powerful winds aren’t conducive to aerial assaults, and the Bears personnel isn’t built for that either.

Look for a significant drop off yardage this season and for Cutler to notch 3,250 yards passing and 20-23 TDs.

 

Brett Favre*

The asterisk is only there because the move is not yet official. But we all know it’s only a matter of time. And that’s music to Vikes fan’s ears as the only gaping hole on the roster resides at the QB position. In 2008, Tavaris Jackson showed us he wasn’t the answer and neither is career back-up, Sage Rosenfels.

But Favre, even at age 39, would be a big upgrade for the Vikes, who already have a lot of offensive firepower at the skill positions and added the wild card from this year’s NFL Draft, Percy Harvin. Expect a 3,000 yard season with over 20 TDs.

 

Matt Stafford

In fantasy football, as in the NFL, it’s never a good idea to bank on rookie QBs; especially ones drafted in Detroit. While Daunte Culpepper should get the nod early on, as the early season losses begin to mount, so will the pressure to get the top overall draft pick on the field.

The one bright spot he has going for him is number 81, Calvin Johnson, who makes anyone look good throwing the ball to him, but overall Stafford should be stayed away from. And anything over 10 TDs in his rookie season would be considered a success.

 

Draft Tip

Rodgers has worked his way into a top five to seven fantasy QB and should come off the board early, no later than round four. Cutler will fall a bit further as Chicago’s not the most ideal home for a passer, and Favre, who could end up overlooked and turn into a solid fantasy sleeper, will go between round’s eight and 10. Stafford will not be drafted, nor should he ever start for your team in 2009.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC East Quarterbacks in 2009

The NFC East QBs already face an uphill battle because all four teams in the division possess top-10 defenses from last season, but two still rank in the top eight QBs in the league.

 

1. Donovan McNabb

McNabb saved his season—and maybe his Philly career—after his benching in Baltimore last season, which came on the heels of five picks over a two game stretch. From that point on, he tossed nine TDs and one INT and carried the Birds all the way to NFC Championship Game. Overall in 2008, he finished just under 4,000 yards and 23 TDs.

This year, he has even more weapons at his disposal. In addition to star RB Brian Westbrook and second year WR DeSean Jackson, the Eagles solidified their offensive line and moved up in the draft to select WR Jeremy Maclin, who should provide an immediate impact in the slot.

Look for a 4,000 yard season and between 25-30 TDs.

 

2. Tony Romo

Coming into last year’s fantasy draft, Romo was the second rated QB on the draft board after a stellar 2007 campaign. After a tumultuous year, one that included a broken pinkie finger and dissent amongst the receiving corps, mainly T.O., the Cowboys finished off 9-and-7 and missed the post season.In 13 games he finished with 3,448 yards and 26 TDs.

This year, T.O. is gone, which while good for team chemistry, is probably not for fantasy. WR Roy Williams will have to prove he’s capable of being the number one in Big D, otherwise team’s will focus on Witten, which will affect Romo.

Look for another 3,500 yard season, and between 22-25 TDs.

 

3. Eli Manning

The Manning you want in fantasy football resides in Indianapolis, as the Colts offense is built around the passing game. In New York, the offense begins with the running game, and that will be emphasized to an even greater extent with the release of Plaxico Burress in the off season. In 2008, Manning finished with over 3,200 yards and 21 TDs.

This year, look for a similar stat line: 3,200 yards and between 20-25 TDs.

Although most will point to his drop off in play when Plax was suspended, the offensive game plan didn’t adjust. With an entire off season to adjust according to their personnel, the Giants’ passing game will now focus on its receivers strengths: quickness and speed as opposed to height.

 

4. Jason Campbell

Does anyone come into the season feeling more slighted than Jason Campbell? The Skins first tried to deal for Jay Cutler, and then attempted to move up in the draft for Mark Sanchez. In the end, none of those deals worked out. In his first year running Zorn’s offense, he amassed 3,245 yards and 13 TDs.

If he can get some more productivity out of last year’s top receivers, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, to go along with Santana Moss, look for Campbell to once again break the 3,000 yard mark and throw between 15-18 TDs in 2009.

 

Draft Tip

McNabb will be the first QB off the board from the division, most likely between round’s three and five. Romo will also be picked around that time frame, while Manning will last past round 10. Campbell will go towards the end of the draft and be used solely as a fill-in when your starter is out.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC South Quarterbacks in 2009

The NFC South features the top fantasy QB on the board this season, a future star, and then two other QBs that might make your fantasy lineup as a one-time fill in.

1. Drew Brees

2008 was an unbelievable fantasy season for Drew Brees. He was 15 yards shy of Dan Marino’s all-time single season passing record (5,084) and saw 34 of his passes end up in the end zone.

This year, with Greg Williams running the D, the Saints should be an improved unit and thus more competitive. Expect a decrease in numbers but for Brees to still hit 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.

2. Matt Ryan

Logic would assume that Ryan will have a big season in 2009. As a superb fantasy rookie in 2008, he threw for over 3,400 yards and tossed 16 TDs.

But this season, his out of conference schedule consists of the AFC and NFC East, two divisions that know how to play stellar defense. While Ryan should improve with a year under his belt, look for the results to be similar: 3,000 passing yards and 18-20 TDs.

Jake Delhomme

The Panthers impressive season ended on a dreadful performance by Delhomme in the playoffs. The veteran QB tossed five INTs in an unexpected loss to the Cards. Overall, he finished with 3,288 yards and 15 TDs.

The problem for Delhomme from a fantasy perspective is the Panthers are defensive minded and a running team first. So opportunities for yards and TDs are fewer. Expect a similar turnout in 2009 with 3,000 passing yards and between 14-17 TDs.

Luke McCown

It appears that McCown will be the starter in Tampa as it’s hard to conceive that job going to Leftwich. But one thing which is certain is it’s only a matter of time before the Bucs get rookie first round pick Josh Freeman in there, most likely towards the end of the season when they are out of the race.

But as it stands now, don’t expect much fantasy wise from the Buccaneers’ QBs. While they have some firepower at the receiver position, this will be a run oriented team as rookie head coach Raheem Morris looks to keep games close late into games.

Draft Tip

Brees will be the top QB drafted this year because there’s still concern over Tom Brady’s knee. Ryan will last until the fifth round and would provide good value after round six or seven. Delhomme will be a late round pick, and used as a one-time fill in, or if your starter is injured, and stay away at all costs from any QB this season in Tampa.

Fantasy Rankings: AFC East Wide Receivers in 2009

The best four receivers in the AFC East reside on two of the teams, while the other two offer late round value and potential sleeper picks.

1. Randy Moss

No one outside of Bill Belichick is happier about the return of Tom Brady. In their only season together, Moss set the all-time TD receiving mark, (23) while Brady set the passing record (50). Last year, after the loss of Brady in Week One, Moss still managed to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and put 11 balls across the goal line.

This year, look for a return to the fantasy elite: 1,500 yards and at least 15 TDs.

 

2. Terrell Owens

If you’re a fan of T.O., make sure you grab him in 2009. He rarely does any damage to both his team or QB in year one, so now’s the time to capitalize on what should be a productive season in Buffalo.

While Edwards is not as talented as Romo, he’s not as erratic either; so while we don’t expect the stellar fantasy numbers Owens has put up throughout his career, 1,200 yards and 10 TDs are certainly within reach.

 

3. Wes Welker

There’s not a more difficult man to cover underneath in the NFL than Welker. The guy gets in and out of breaks so quickly that he’s often in the soft spot of the defense before the corner back has time to react.

And in 2007, he quickly became Brady’s best friend in third down situations. After amassing another 100 catch season in 2008, look for a repeat of those numbers this season with 1,200 yards and six TDs.

 

4. Lee Evans

Evans should benefit tremendously from having T.O. on his other side. The extra attention that must be paid to Owens will allow Evans to streak down the sidelines, and he’s extremely dangerous on deep routes in one-on-one situations.

After hauling in a little more than 1,000 yards and three TDs in 2008, look for another thousand yard season in 2009, but over double the amount of TDs with seven.

 

5. Ted Ginn Jr.

In 2008, Ginn finally began to show some of the promise that made him the ninth overall pick in 2007, by reeling in 56 catches, for 790 yards and two TDs. And throughout the year, while learning Sparano’s system, you began to see him become more confident in his route running and the result was some long gainers.

Look for another step forward this season with 1,000 yards and at least five TDs.

 

6. Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery is now the man in New York but will surely see his production drop if they go with Sanchez. It’s rarely a wise move, sans Matt Ryan, to expect any fantasy value from a receiver with a rookie QB, and it certainly appears as if that’s what is going to happen.

With the defection of Coles to the Bengals, look for a repeat or slight drop-off from his 2008 numbers: 800 yards and five TDs.

 

Sleeper: Greg Camarillo

Camarillo came on strong last year before suffering a season ending knee injury in Week 12. He became Brady’s (Wes) Welker for Pennington. If he can pick up where he left off before the injury, 55 catches for more than 600 yards, this will be a great fantasy sleeper pick in the later rounds.

 

Draft Tip

Moss and Owens are both second-round picks in this year’s draft. Welker will be gone by round four, while Evans will slip due to his poor production last season. Ginn, Cotchery and Camarillo will all be fill-ins, i.e. second and most likely third receivers for your teams, and can be had later in the draft.

Fantasy Rankings 2009: AFC South Wide Receivers

The AFC South has some serious firepower at the top before thinning out, but there are plenty of quality receivers from this division that can help impact your fantasy lineup. Here are a few of the recievers to be looking for:

1. Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson, otherwise known as the man the Lions regret not drafting. Johnson has developed into one of the top two or three best receivers in the NFL and has done so while playing mostly with sub-par QBs. With his overall size, speed and strength, he’s virtually impossible to cover one-on-one, and last year, playing with the combo of Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, he managed 115 catches for 1,575 yards and eight TDs.

We think he will take an even bigger step this year. Look for another 100-catch season, with at least 1,500 yards and over twelve TDs.

2. Reggie Wayne

Long before Marvin Harrison first injured his knee in 2007, Wayne had already supplanted him as Peyton’s go-to guy. In 2007, he delivered over 1,500 yards and ten TDs. Last year however, playing on a team ravished by injury, his production fell and he only netted 1,145 yards and six TDs.

Not horrible numbers, but not what we’ve come to expect from the former Hurricane. This year, look for a bounce back and over 1,200 yards and ten TDs for this fantasy star.

3.  Torry Holt

Jacksonville is actually an intriguing spot for Holt. After suffering through a horrendous season in 2008, one which saw the Rams, “throw in the towel” en route to a two-win season, Holt now finds himself on another team that is also reeling from a sub-par year. He slides right in as the number one guy.

It’s hard for us to envision him putting up Rams-type numbers in this offense, but he’ll still get a majority of Garrard’s passes and we see him finishing off with a 1,000 yard season and nine TDs.

4.  Anthony Gonzalez

With Harrison no longer in Indy, Gonzalez will become the full-time starter opposite Wayne. Last year, playing as the third wideout and fourth receiving option after Wayne, Harrison, and Clark, he had a few outstanding showings such as his 138 yard, and nine catch, game in Minnesota. Overall, he totaled 664 yards and four TDs.

Look for him to break the thousand yard mark this season and double his TD total with eight.

5. Nate Washington

One thing that was noticeably missing in Tennessee last season was the threat of a vertical passing game, so they went out and signed Steelers wideout Nate Washington in free agency. As the Steelers’ number three receiver in 2008, Washington finished with 631 yards and three TDs, but an impressive 15.8 yard average per catch.

With more looks, will come more catches, yards, and TDs. We expect Washington and Collins to hook up on a few bombs. Expect 900 yards and between six and eight TDs.

Sleeper—Kevin Walter

This guy rarely gets noticed, but he’s pretty good. In fact, he’s a very solid late round/waiver, wire type, fantasy sleeper. Starting opposite Andre Johnson, who obviously commanded a lot of double coverage, Walter totaled 899 receiving yards and had eight TDs.

He should approach those totals once again in 2009.

Draft Tip

Johnson could come off the board as early as the end of the first round. If not, because there’s a run on running backs, he’ll surely be taken atop round two. Wayne will go in round two as well. After that, Holt will be a good choice in rounds three and four, while Gonzalez shouldn’t last beyond round six.  Washington can be had in round eight and Walter will probably still be there at the end.

Fantasy Rankings: AFC North Wide Receivers in 2009

The AFC North receivers might be the most difficult group to rate. While the overall talent is there, the production of late has not been, so any fantasy projections are speculative at best.

1. Braylon Edwards

This pick is sure to be scrutinized. While there’s no denying Edwards’ talent—in 2007 he caught 16 TDs for nearly 1,300 yards—last year a severe case of butterfingers saw his production decrease immensely, to less than 900 yards and three TDs.

A lot of that can also be attributed to the horrific year offensively in Cleveland. This year, which also happens to be a contract year, usually great incentive for the player, look for Braylon to rebound and reach the 1,200 yard mark with at least 10 TDs.

2. Chad Ocho Cinco

It appears that enough is enough, even for Chad. Ocho Cinco’s antics in an attempt to get out of Cincinnati have proved futile and his overall production has taken a huge hit to the dismay of fantasy owners. The one time top five NFL receiver produced only 540 yards and four TDs in 2008.

And this has a lot of media questioning his desire for the game. A recent showing at a non mandatory mini camp however, leads us to believe that Ocho Cinco is ready to put the past behind him and once again post solid numbers; look for No. 85 to reach the 1,000 yard mark with 10TDs.

3. Santonio Holmes

The Super Bowl MVP had the game of his life in Tampa, catching nine balls for 131 yards and the game winning TD. That type of ending to a season usually propels a player to great things the following.

Now firmly entrenched as Big Ben’s go-to-guy, look for Holmes to step up and hit the thousand yard mark with between eight to 10 TDs.

4. Hines Ward

Ward had the better season of the two (Holmes), finishing with over a thousand yards and seven TDs, but age and injuries are beginning to catch up and his numbers are on the decline.

Still, in Pittsburgh’s finesse offense—three wideout formations, etc.—he’ll have his opportunities and look for Ward to match his seven TD total from last season as the short to medium range target.

5. Derrick Mason

Even at age 35, Mason still ranks among the better receivers in the game. And he’s still proving he can impact a fantasy roster with over a thousand yards and five TDs in 2008. Look for him to post solid numbers once again as the Ravens offense should take another step forward in year two of Joe Flacco’s development.

Sleeper – Limas Sweed

While he only caught six balls in the 2008 regular season, he’ll now be called upon to replace Nate Washington as Pittsburgh’s deep threat as the number three wideout. At 6’4″, 220 pounds and with good speed, look for between 40-50 catches and at least five TDs.

Draft Tip

None of the AFC North Receivers should go in the top two rounds of your fantasy draft. Edwads and Ocho Cinco should come off the board in round three, while Holmes will be a fourth round pick. Ward should last past round six and Mason will be a good number two receiver from seven on. Sweed, our projected fantasy sleeper from this division, will provide great value late in the draft.

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