Do Da Dirty Bird: Week One Preview—Falcons v. Dolphins

About time the regular season got here.

Hopefully you read the last DDDB, which explains my new super-fortunate Falcons situation; I am typing this with my fingers crossed, praying that my luck continues and I’m again in the press box for the September 13 home opener.

Just as it’s time for the players to get serious, it’s time for me to buckle down. I’ve got a job to do each and every week, or more exactly, every day. Gotta stay on top, especially if I’m to be in the nirvana that is the Dome.

I was criticized heavily by Lions faithful when I wrote an overly pro-Falcons preseason game preview, and I have generally kept the tone pretty light in my columns. No more. This is the new DDDB: leaner, meaner, and way more in-your-face.

…

Oh, who am I kidding? You know what to expect from me by now, so why quit?

I may have moved on in terms of where I view games (couch to media level), but it’s the same old me.

And the same old preview format. How does it go?

 

Miami Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

When it comes to the Phins’ ground game, we’ll be treated to a little R & R. Ronnie (Brown) and Ricky (Williams), that is.

Theirs are the names to drop because they form not only a sick running attack, but also because they have both done an excellent job adapting to the Wildcat that Miami started last year. They were rested exceedingly well during the preseason, with neither getting over five carries except for the instance of Brown getting seven in Game Two.

That gave Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs plenty of time to get acclimated, which is all the more bad news for us.

Not that I’m that down on the rush D here in ATL; there are several reasons to believe we’re going to take not just the one (expected) step forward as the regular season begins, but perhaps an additional one beyond that.

Peria Jerry, thank you, my boy. After I hated so much and for so long, you put on a pretty good show in your action this past Thursday evening. I will be so bold as to say you almost made me think you were a run-stopping tackle, rather than a rusher. Keep it up, man!

The fact that we won’t be rotating in Vance Walker (cut) anymore is helpful, but I’m just excited about seeing what kind of a wall Jonathan Babineaux and Jerry can combine to make. Obviously, neither Brown nor Williams is confined to straight-up-the-middle runs, but that’s always a key.

On reverses and from the edge, though, I’ve got to have my doubts, especially if they’re attacking via direct snap. John Abraham will be concentrating on Jake Long, no doubt, Jamaal Anderson still hasn’t proved he can be relied on (for anything), and Curtis Lofton can only be so many places at one time.

I’ve got faith that Coach Mike Smith will prepare the boys for both the traditional rushes and the Wildcat plays. Thing is, you can’t be completely ready for both on every down.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Miami Rush Defense

To see Michael Turner for more than a quarter…this has been my dream since about February. Finally, all these wishes upon stars will come true!

Yeah, but anyway, the Burner didn’t need more than two rushes in each preseason game to completely convince me that he’s going to be no different on the field this year. Now, hopefully, he won’t have to carry the number of times he did last year (we’d just be begging for an injury then), but I’m pretty sure that if push came to shove and he did have it in his hands another 350 times, he’d be just as effective.

So good luck, old-as-dirt Jason Ferguson and newbie Kendall Langford. You’ll need it, as you’re at a disadvantage both against my Dirty Bird powerback and your teammate Dolphins linebackers, who will undoubtedly want to give you both swirlies after you let Turner get to the second level again and again.

Alright, that was a little harsh; I’ll give Ferguson the fact that he is, in his old age, still a pretty good clog, and Langford gets a nod based solely on the fact that he’s won a starting job in his second year out of Hampton (where?). Plus, the third starter (Randy Starks) and one guy who rotates in (Paul Soliai) have a good mix of starting experience and athleticism.

And of course, those aforementioned linebackers will indeed do much to make up for shortcomings on the line. Turner will push, but I’m resigned to the fact that someone in the middle four will probably swallow him. Between speedy Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele and greybeards Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, most runs are probably going to stop after about five yards.

Of course, if you pick up five yards on every play, you’re never even going to face third down…

I don’t fear a whole lot of backfield penetration by the backers, but I’ll just note that if Porter or Taylor were to get around the line, Tony Gonzalez will be the man that needs to match up and block. I know he can, but he hasn’t been called upon for this duty in a while, at least not against a corps like this.

 

Miami Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

Sports media world: Why all the doubting of the Dolphins’ receivers? I actually really like this group. Besides, they’re playing our secondary, so they’re bound to look like stars.

Sorry. Before I get all negative, I’ll talk about what’s good: Miami’s sudden depth at this position.

(See what I did there?)

Anyway, the Dolphins did an excellent job of getting guys several chances in preseason games, and nearly everyone did pretty well in at least one game. Sure, Brian Hartline dipped towards the end of exhibition, but that just allowed Davone Bess to shine. And after all, Hartline was being talked about as a starter not a week ago, so he can’t be all bad, now can he?

I think everyone has said this at some point, but I expect big things from Greg Camarillo, and I’m willing to bet he’s even healthier than he showed in the preseason. He’ll have no trouble torching Brent Grimes and will certainly abuse Chris Owens when his back is turned.

Sorry for all the vitriol. Just kind of losing hope with the corners here; how many times must we see Owens do a beautiful job of keeping up with an opposing wideout only for him to be unaware of where the ball is? And can somebody get Grimes some high heels or something? Dude’s tiny!

I’m glad Chris Houston will be around, and I’m also glad Abe will be released upon the unsuspecting Chad Pennington. Penn has great blockers in Long and the tight ends (of which frequently two are run at once, normally Anthony Fasano and David Martin), but between our line’s leader, the sack-threat tackles, and Chad’s general mobility issues, we’re going to put on some pressure.

Nervous about how the Phins’ second-line receivers, let alone Ted Ginn, match up against our CBs, though.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Miami Pass Defense

Once again, it’s going to be good to see the starter get some real burn. As in, all-60-minutes burn, hopefully. Matt Ryan was conserved in a very…conservative manner in exhibition, and I think we’re all about as fed up with John Parker Wilson and D.J. Shockley (good luck to you, Dawg) as can be.

I don’t see pressure on Matty Ice being the trouble here. It’s not that the line is all that rock-solid, but Sam Baker is looking good, as are both guard spots. Besides, Miami’s blitz, while solid, is not known as their strong point.

What I think we’ve got to see for the Dirty Birds to have success is consistency, and with the number of quality receivers we’ve got (it’s at least four, though early in the preseason I would have told you more), it’s a definite possibility that our air game can prevail.

We just want a lot of Roddy White here in order for the job to get done. Pepper in some over-the-tops to Brian Finneran, some sideline stuff to Micahel Jenkins, and the typical Gonzo plays, and we’ve got a decent number of weapons to throw at even a well-rounded defense like Miami’s.

Interestingly, this might be one of the games that Tony G. is least effective, as the Dolphins have a versatile and big linebacking corps and pretty big safeties in Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson. But as I said, we’ll be using a diversified attack, and it will serve us well.

In terms of one-on-one matchups between WRs and CBs, Will Allen is excellent, but does not have the strength to counter White’s hops and hands. Word to rook Sean Smith for nabbing a starting spot over the talented Jason Allen and Vontae Davis, but dude, you’re a bit young to totally shut down a crafty vet like Jenkins or Finn.

 

Prediction: Falcons 35, Miami 27

It’ll have to be a high-scoring affair. Neither team is awful on defense, but neither team is going to focus on that here. Both want to shock and awe their opponent with either the Wildcat (Phins) or their dominant receivers (Falcs).

Special teams edge has to go to the ATL. Even though Weems got limited punt return chances in the preseason, I know he can be kickass in this regard (as good as Harry Douglas? Might just be!), and the Dolphins have struggled to defend this well.

One last nod to Miami before I go: I am glad this is in the Dome. We suffered there to close exhibition, but we do traditionally, ahem, defend it rather well.

 

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Shape Up, Secondary

If it wasn’t the linebackers, it was the tight ends. We had holes in our Atlanta Falcons roster, and people liked to point them out.

So how about this: We’ll add proven vets Mike Peterson and Tony Gonzalez and unleash Curtis Lofton upon the NFL world as our defensive leader. I’d say linebacker and tight end are two designations we don’t have to worry about a whole lot anymore.

You happy now?

Well, of course not. It’s now in vogue to treat the secondary as a pariah, and I guess there’s some reason for it. The Dirty Birds have yet to outgain an opponent through the air—they’ve given up 263 yards to the Lions, 204 yards to the Rams, and 320 yards to the Chargers.

Note who those first two opponents are and the exact number allowed in our most recent contest. Ugh.

I can try to explain it away. First, there’s the youth of the bunch—Erik Coleman’s the “greybeard” at 27, but honestly, it’s not like any of these guys hasn’t been playing organized ball or more than half his life.

Then there’s inconsistency. Chris Owens looked tremendous in Preseason Week One, then proceeded to give up a couple big plays with poor field awareness in Week Two. Chevis Jackson hasn’t looked himself at all. Brent Grimes has, at times, used his athleticism in the wrong way—his great speed gets him farther from the ball rather than closer—but really, considering the number of bodies, we should not be allowing several big passing plays consecutively as we did last night.

I’m a firm believer that what it comes down to with this group is confidence and chemistry. Obviously, both of these things come with experience, which really only Coleman, Von Hutchins, and Chris Houston have. I just wish we were utilizing the preseason a bit more to build up the two “big C’s.”

And here I was, lambasting the preseason as boring in yesterday’s column. In hindsight, I actually wouldn’t argue with us having a fifth exhibition game—or maybe more like a do-over of one in Detroit—to experiment with a few more looks in the defensive backfield.

Let’s get it straight: I by no means “dislike” Owens, Grimes, Eric Brock, Jamaal Fudge, or any of the other young guys who have contributed to the secondary so far. Fudge, in particular, has had two games in which he stood out, but the problem is that each one of them has had an unacceptable breakdown at one point.

I realize we aren’t going to be starting all of those guys in the regular season, but I’m a little bit concerned that the unit is going to look nearly as dull as it did last night come Sept. 13.

Here are my suggestions for next week.

• Seeing as how he’s no longer needed as a stopgap linebacker (who are you and what have you done with the “merely solid” Curtis Lofton?!) let’s see Coy Wire play much more in the secondary. It’s where he played before last season, and he is unlike pretty much anyone else currently serving at cornerback or safety in that he’s super physical. At the very least, Wire is another veteran presence to put next to the freshies.
• I know most of us came into camp believing he was definitely our nickelback, but I think it’s time we saw Von Hutchins in as one of two corners every once in a while. Once again, this is about experience over raw skill, but it’s also about giving a guy who just straight-up has not gotten enough burn more time on the field.
• Just play more aggressive at the line. Bump and do a better job marking your man, rather than being concerned about what else is going on on the field.

It’s weird that old Brent is both the best and worst when it comes to that last point. He excels at keeping up with his guy, but on one play in each of the past two games, he’s gotten caught with his pants down and looking in another direction as his receiver was targeted.

In all honesty, Coleman has been doing a bang-up job as a new leader for this group, but he’s limited by the younger fellas’ occasional absent-mindedness. It doesn’t help that William Moore hasn’t been available, of course, but like I said before, there are enough able bodies to stock this secondary.

It’s not the apocalypse; our particular struggles don’t have me mashing the panic button quite yet. We did manage to beat San Diego (which was named by the Germans…sorry, couldn’t resist) last night, and things obviously started looking up after the half.

Keep in mind some of the teams on our schedule—the Pats, Saints twice, Eagles, and Bills—and I think you might join me as I plead:

“Work out the kinks, guys!”

Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Preseason Game Three, Falcons v. Chargers

You could say that Preseason Week Three is the most enjoyable week of preseason games, as teams normally run their first-teamers the most in these contests.

But at this point, my attitude toward exhibition football has soured. Saying that this is the “best week of the preseason” is like determining which bowl of unsweetened, store-brand rice puffs cereal is best: The competition is pretty lackluster, you tire of the action about partway through, and it just leaves you wanting the real thing all the more.

Geez, and all this is coming from the kid who was bouncing of the walls as the Falcons got set to take on the Lions in Preseason Week One. It’s just that this substitute leaves me wanting regular season ball, the stuff with importance, all the more.

That being said, I’m going to be watching intently, as you might expect, as my Dirty Birds take on the San Diego Chargers tonight. It’s the first showdown in the Dome in ’09, the Bolts are easily the best team we’ve seen thus far, and there are still questions to be answered and performances to be analyzed.

Though it is tough, I will soldier on through this serving of wannabe balanced breakfast; it’s hard work sitting on the couch watching pigskin, but somebody’s gotta do it.

 

 

San Diego Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

 

There’s going to be very little Darren Sproles tonight, and even less LaDainian Tomlinson (like, none). So it’s good news for people like me, who are so proud of their Falcons that they want them to go undefeated in the preseason, but it’s bad news for people like me, who want to see teams playing at their true capacity.

Not to say San Diego’s ground attack is toothless without the two. Both Michael Bennet and Gartrell Johnson have already been carrying a lot so far, and while neither has electrified, they’ve done fine for third-stringers.

More importantly, though, two solid fullbacks, Jacob Hester, and Mike Tolbert, are still going at it to determine who’s the best of a corps that deserves more attention. Brandon Manumaleuna has been doing a terrific job blocking, as well, making this battle all the more interesting.

The San Diego line has been pretty nondescript so far, getting their runners just 55 and then 125 yards on the ground in the two previous games (against Seattle and Arizona, respectively), but the well-publicized right guard battle (that’d be former Falcon Kynan Forney v. rookie Louis Vasquez) makes it worth your while to keep an eye on the unit, as do last week’s great performances from Falcons D-linemen Kroy Biermann and Trey Lewis. The latter especially will be key against runs up the middle.

All us ATLiens would of course like to see more out of Peria Jerry, but I’ve said that so many times that you’ve probably quit reading this sentence by now. Curtis Lofton’s presence will be necessary for a large part of the game, and I expect he’ll answer, as will rook Lawrence Sidbury, who’s outperforming Peria to this point.

 

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. San Diego Rush Defense

 

Michael Turner going up against his old teammates isn’t much of a story for a couple reasons: We already beat ’em last year, and the Burner runs like a man on a mission against everybody, not just the squad that let him go.

Then again (not again! Yes, this is the third consecutive section I’ve introduced with a wishy-washy contradiction), the Chargers’ D is going to be without Jacques Cesaire but will have Larry English, so we’ll get to see some new looks. Heck, the whole thing is a new look for the ’09 Birds, if you think about it; this is our first matchup with a 3-4!

I’m sure you don’t need to be told that this Bolts linebacking corps sends a shiver up the spine. There’s English, Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Jyles Tucker, and preseason darling Kevin Burnett all thirsting for blood, so let’s just say it’s going to be important for not only the O-line but also TEs Tony Gonzalez and Justin Peelle to man-up on their assignments.

San Diego may not have produced a lot on the ground yet, but their opponents have been even worse off: Seattle got just 92 rushing yards, and Arizona managed a paltry 64. The line is solid, but thin; yeah, it’s been those ‘backers and some step-up from safeties Eric Weddle and Paul Oliver and CB Brandon Hughes that have truly made this defense lock down.

Here’s a crossing of the fingers (OK, more like a desperate plea) for Jerious Norwood to attack a bit more, rather than running basically straight to the sideline every time he gets the handoff. Yes, Turner has very much looked like he could do it all for 16 games, but I’m not feeling terrific about our insurance policy.

 

 

San Diego Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

 

Biological knees and textbook throwing mechanics for quarterbacks are clearly overrated. Just look at Philip Rivers. His comeback last season has me thinking, even without him having to do anything significant yet this preseason, that he’s among the top five (OK, maybe six) quarterbacks in the league.

And tonight, he gets to throw to his regulars Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers more, which always helps. It’s not that rotation guys Gary Banks, Malcolm Floyd, and Legedu Naanee have looked half bad themselves, but Rivers built lots of chemistry with his top two pass-catchers last season as the offense featured him more than ever.

Word is that Antonio Gates is actually less than his “probable” (it’s preseason, folks), but you won’t see me crying. We’d have a helluva time matching up with a guy like that, just like other teams have a helluva time matching up with our Gonzo.

Here’s hoping our scatterbrained secondary shows a bit more cohesion here. CBs Chris Owens and Brent Grimes, after both looking so good in the game in Detroit, struggled against the Rams. Yeah, they looked like they were making the effort, but that was only after they had blown the play with poor positioning.

But on a more positive note, tonight marks the hopefully dashing debut of rookie safety William Moore. Everybody’s all like “Oh, it’s too late for him to win a starting job now,” but I bet he comes with fire, gets some consideration, and gives me some fodder for a column tomorrow morning.

Please?

 

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. San Diego Pass Defense

 

Judging by the performance of the safeties in the preseason and just the names of the corners, it’s hard to believe the Chargers’ secondary finished second-to-last in the league in 2008. At this point, it’s probably safe to say that’s not going to happen again.

The aforementioned Weddle and Oliver (word to my Dawg) plus wild card Clinton Hart and rookie Kevin Ellison mean a seemingly open deep receiver might not be so “wide” after all. The depth doesn’t stop there; let me name-drop C.J. Spillman before I lose your attention. But moving on…

There’s no way Antonio Cromartie doesn’t bounce back a bit from last season. I bet he finds a nice middle ground between his ’07 and ’08 performances in ’09. I see him playing more and at a higher level tonight, inspired by the task of taking on Roddy White and Michael Jenkins.

And if he doesn’t, Quentin Jammer or Antoine Cason will; just can’t see the top three corners continuing to be shown up by rookie Hughes.

It’s looking like Matt Ryan might have some time in the pocket, as the Bolts have registered just one sack in the preseason so far. But, oh yeah, that’s right, there are probably going to be several downs of simultaneous Phillips-Merriman-English pressure in this contest. They may not have done it a lot so far, but if history is any indicator, S.D. likes to bring the blitz with their ‘backers, be it their big-name guys or Tucker, Brandon Siler, and Tim Dobbins.

Good thing we’ve still got Tony G on our side. He’s always a matchup problem, but for an aggressive, bring-the-heat D like this, just about the only measure against a huge yet athletic target like him is Cromartie’s long arms. And they’re going to be flailing around Roddy’s general area, with any luck.

 

 

Prediction: Chargers 21, Falcons 20

 

No, I didn’t call it that close just because they’re MY Dirty Birds. I really do think we are on a comparable level with the Chargers, who might just deliver on their promise this year.

We’re going to surrender some big passes and pass TDs, no doubt, but the Burner is going to allow us to go into halftime down by no more than one score. Our air game is going to struggle against first-string CBs and any of those safeties, but we’ve got enough weapons to wear ’em down at some point in the second half.

It’s largely going to be a question of who plays their starters longer; if it’s an even split (say, all the first-stringers come out at halftime, as predicted), I’m going to have to call San Diego.

But by just one.

Do Da Dirty Bird: Falcon in the Dawghouse

Fear not; the meaning of my triple-entendre of a headline will soon become clear. After all, it does not take the brain of an ESPN talking head to evaluate the preseason stats so far of Falcons QB D.J. Shockley.

Against the Detroit Lions, he completed three of eight passing attempts for 31 yards. He followed it up Friday night with a five-of-12, 63-yard, two-interception performance.

It all adds up to 40-percent accuracy and a big, fat question mark for his status as we near the regular season.

Keep in mind this is not easy for me to admit, let alone pleasant for me to assert. Shock led my university (albeit before it was mine) to an SEC Championship and then seemingly fortuitously landed with my hometown NFL club a year later.

As the Dirty Bird faithful know, he’s spent two of the past three seasons serving faithfully as the third-string signalcaller, and his 2007 campaign was completely lost to injury, so I guess a bit of rust is understandable. But D.J. is not looking like a man fit for NFL play at the moment.

Yes, he’s playing with receivers on down the chart, and yes, the men protecting him (Will Svitek, Brett Romberg, and Garrett Reynolds, among the other backup offensive linemen) are not the equivalent of starters Sam Baker, Harvey Dahl, and Tyson Clabo. But he himself is making mistakes that someone who has played the quarterback position for some time should not.

Several times against the Rams, Shock threw into double coverage or just straight-up traffic, as evidenced by his two picks. Drops are to blame for a couple of the incompletions, but D.J. was also firing the pigskin like a laser and not, well, a ball. That’s indicative of nervousness and intimidation.

Once again, one might expect that considering the quantity of snaps he’s gotten since he was drafted, but it would be D.J.’s job as a third-stringer to come in and not make those kind of juvenile mistakes. He’d need to get in, get the job done, and get out.

The only thing he managed to get on Friday was in trouble. The good news for Shockley is that this is preseason. The bad news is that good ole (I am an SEC crazy, mind you) John Parker Wilson has looked far better than the former Dawg.

The arguments against Mr. Three Names are obvious, and in a discussion with a non-Falcons fan, I’d be as quick as any to point them out: He’s been playing against bench-warming defenses, he’s only thrown eight passes at the pro level, and he’s looked even more timid than D.J. at times.

But I found myself, Friday night, sounding like a broken record:

“If Shockley doesn’t get his act together, he’s going to lose his spot.”

And this is slowly yet surely becoming the prevailing opinion amongst Falcons fans. Just check a recent Falcoholic post. As sad as I am to say it, my official prediction as of right now is that JPW bumps off my brother in Red and Black.

…

Now, seeing as how everything in this column up to this point has been more or less regurgitation, I’m sure you’re itching for a bit of evaluation, or at least some McCurdy-type (read: “creative”) suggestions.

I’d go so far as to say that Shock should get some in-game reps at other spots. We all know he was a dual threat at UGA, and there were a lot of people who, as he came out of school, said he was the type of all-purpose “athlete” who might change from QB to one of the other skill positions.

At least in practice, D.J. should run the ball, catch the ball, or at least tool around with the Wildcat. Something needs to be done to get him back in the groove.

I think it’s pretty obvious that Wilson will get the majority of the time at quarterback this coming week against the Chargers. Now, wouldn’t it be fun to have Shockley come out of the backfield, at least in the fourth quarter?

Thomas Brown (you know we rep Athens hard) deserves carries, but there’s another former Bulldog who needs to be massaged back into the game.

Do Da Dirty Bird: Mano-a-Mano Matchups

It was the NBA that originally hooked me on sports, way back when I was in the third grade. If you want more info on my introduction to competitive athletics, check out my first ever B/R article for a positively heart-warming yarn…

But summarizing it is not the point of this article. Just think a little reflection on the macro of sports is necessary before I delve right in.

The NBA is, undoubtedly, a league of superstars. Basketball is a team sport, but overall lends itself to shining individual performances. The actions of off-ball defenders and teammates of the ballhandler are nuances that only educated observers would critique. This is definitely not so in football.

So as I broaden (note that’s present tense; it’s certainly still an ongoing process) my knowledge, I must adjust my thought processes. Football is not like basketball; there are stars, and one man can change a game, but doing so alone is much more rare. When it comes to the gridiron, what I would consider “nuances” in a basketball game (action away from the ballcarrier) might actually be the most crucial part of the play.

That means in the NFL, you’re not going to see duels like Russell versus Chamberlain, Magic versus Bird, or Kobe versus LeBron, nearly as often. Every play is affected by every man on the field.

If this all seems a little simplistic to you, the football aficionado, pardon me. I’m mostly doing it for myself, but also to set up what I’m about to analyze here: player-to-player matchups to watch for my Falcons’ upcoming season.

I guess what I want to do is simply preface this list with this statement: I know these matchups will not necessarily be game-long individual battles. But if you take each one both for its potential as a man-to-man fight and the embodiment of a larger struggle in the game, you might just be entertained.

Enough with the explanation! Let’s talk pigskin (in chronological order):

 

Panthers RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams v. Falcons DT Peria Jerry

See it Sept. 20, Week Two, when Carolina comes to the Dome.

The Dirty Birds will be facing plenty of quality running backs this coming season. No offense to Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, Matt Forte, or any of the other guys we’ll see (hey, this is the NFL; everyone’s a star), but when the Panthers come to town for just the second game of the season, the Atlanta rush D, 25th in the league last season, will have its hands full.

Carolina ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards per game last season. Yes, we averaged more, but that’s on the other side of the ball. Maybe we can outrun them in this contest, maybe we can’t. What’s definite is that the more we limit the two-headed monster that is DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the more likely we are to win this game.

Obviously, it’s the whole defense’s job to stop the run. DTs Jonathan Babineaux and Trey Lewis and LBs Mike Peterson and Curtis Lofton shoulder just as much of the responsibility as the man mentioned in the subheadline.

I’m singling you out, though, Mr. First-Round Draft Pick, because of the widely-held preconceived notion that you don’t handle strong rushing attacks particularly well.

It’ll be early in the season, so Peria will not have the benefit of several serious games of experience. We’ll have to see what he’s picked up in camp, what D-line coach Ray Hamilton and D-coordinator Brian VanGorder have taught him, and what he’s personally worked on since he was taken in April.

Welcome to the big league, “little” fella.

 

Patriots WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker v. Falcons CBs Chevis Jackson and Chris Houston

See it Sept. 27, Week Three, when Atlanta goes to Foxboro

When the Pats are on your schedule, it’s hard not to be intimidated. While Tom Brady is back, healthy, and as good-looking as ever, I think I’m most afraid of this receiving corps, to tell you the truth.

In all honesty, I didn’t watch a lot of Moss and Welker last season with their interaction with Matt Cassel, but I heard through the grapevine it went alright. I don’t think for a second they’re going to have any trouble readjusting to old Tom, though; I’m personally just crossing my fingers they’re not as good as 2007.

The Atlanta secondary has caught plenty of flak for its flakiness. Individual talent has not been the same since DeAngelo Hall was sent packing, but as I’ve stated before, I’m largely pleased that he was. I have confidence that Houston will continue to develop into a reliable man defender.

But can he, at this exact moment in time, do much to stop Randy Moss? Can anyone? Let’s just say I’d rather us rely upon rushing Brady into making bad throws, and that’s much, much, easier said than done.

Once again, this is an early-season game. Chevis and Chris will be tested all season long, but there is no other pass-catching corps like this one in the league (sorry, Cardinals). Whether it’s the craftiness and shiftiness of Welker or the foot speed and hand magnetism of Moss, our boys must be on their toes at all times.

 

Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware v. Falcons LT Sam Baker

See it Oct. 25, Week Seven, when Atlanta goes to Cowboys Stadium

I’m sounding like a broken record, but it’s important to state this: Football is a team sport. It’s the entire O-line’s job to stop the blitz. And yes, they must at least try, even when that blitz is coming from…gulp…DeMarcus Ware.

Baker came to us in last season’s draft short of the hype of such “franchise cornerstones” as Jake Long and Jason Smith, but he imparted plenty of excitement to the fan base and did fine, in the games he was healthy enough to appear in.

I will not fault a man for getting hurt, but the left tackle slot is meant for a guy built like a rock. Well, a rock with really good hands, the ability to pull and maul, and some solid athleticism and reflexes. Is that what you are, Sam?

As you well know, Ware is surrounded by a great supporting cast that kicks ass against the run. That frees him up to come headhunting for your quarterback. It’s not that I fear for Matt Ryan’s life, it’s just that, well, you better be damn well prepared, Baker.

He’s a young fella and has time to improve. But this game and the matchup against this defense will make up a lot of people’s minds about his ability to stay at OLT for years to come.

 

Giants DE Osi Umenyiora v. Falcons LT Sam Baker

See it Nov. 22, Week 11, when Atlanta goes to Giants Stadium

“Aw, man. Why’s it always me?”

Sorry, Sam. Once again I must call you out. Please just go ahead and have a great performance against another terrifyingly great NFC East defense, OK?

I chose Osi because he’ll line up opposite Baker, but in reality, the Giants’ defense is even more well-rounded than Dallas’. But you didn’t need to be told that, now did you? I’d put money down that you watched 2008’s big game.

So you know that Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are also on this line and Antonio Pierce is behind them. Umenyiora is coming off that injury, so I guess that’s…um, “good news?”

Baker must match the incredible energy of NY’s pass rush, specifically that of the wild-and-crazy Osi. Sam might want to drink a couple (dozen) Red Bulls before the game to make sure he can keep up with the quick hands of the D-ends that are going to be coming at him.

But I’m not trying to be too negative, here. Baker will have already seen the worst of it (the Panthers twice, the Cowboys, and the Patriots) at this point, and as long as he’s healthy for the majority of the season, we can look at him as a “vet” by Week 11. Plus, he’s got technique, Harvey Dahl, and Tyson Clabo on his side.

 

Eagles QB Michael Vick AND Falcons Fans

See it Dec. 5, Week 13, when Philly comes to the Dome

Do you see what’s in bold, italics, and CAPS in the above subheadline? The word “and.”

Not “versus” or any abbreviation thereof.

Yep, I said “and,” and I’m finally talking about Michael Vick in one of my articles. Weird, no?

Very quickly: It makes me sick to my stomach to think of a person, let alone a grown man who’s a role model for millions, torturing a being that can’t defend itself. Literally, nauseous.

But for just a moment, I’m going to deal with the discomfort. I’m going to see a man who’s been in prison for nearly two years (that makes me pretty queasy, too), seems genuinely remorseful, has immense talent, and meant the world to my city not five years ago.

I’m really hoping this will be “and” more than “versus.” It doesn’t need (nor should it be) a five-minute standing ovation, but I know my fellow ATLiens will at least politely cheer, and I hope even local PETA members will hold their tongues for a moment when Mike comes back to town.

It was disgusting, what Vick did. But the way he played (and better still play) football was awesome, and I just want to see it, at least in part, again.

How he’s received everywhere will be a big deal; it doesn’t really matter where the Eagles are playing. I am crossing my fingers, though, that Atlanta makes him feel the most welcome of all the NFL cities.

…

Oh, what, you wanted some football analysis?

I have no idea how Vick fits into the Philadelphia offense, but I was pleasantly surprised to hear Donovan McNabb himself say that he lobbied to get Mike in town. Obviously, Kevin Kolb going down to injury leaves a spot for him at backup QB, but I could very much see him stepping in for a tired Westbrook here and there.

Don’t forget, but forgive. At least enough to enjoy the man’s play on the field.

Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Preseason Game One, Falcons v. Lions

Was it not delicious?

I’m referring, of course, to the brief taste of football we got this past Sunday night, when the annual Hall of Fame Game was played. Just remembering T.O.’s two receptions has me licking my lips…

Yes, the Titans-Bills matchup quickly degenerated into more of an inter-squad scrimmage, as guys way down the depth chart got burn, but that’s what the preseason’s all about, no?

You can’t fool me, anyway. I know you’ll lap up any pigskin action at this point, just like me. It’s been so long!

Hence my unreasonable excitement for this Saturday’s clash of my Dirty Birds and the mighty Detroit Lions. With no further ado, the breakdown.

 

Detroit Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

Let’s begin with the Lions’ most hapless unit and Atlanta’s unit that has the most to prove.

I won’t beat around the bush: Kevin Smith will never be a top-20 NFL running back.  He’s capable of taking a decent load, but that’s about it; his breakaway speed is lacking. Then again, that could just be because the Lions’ O-line is so pathetic.

And second back Maurice Morris? It’s just more of the same: tough guy, no real physical tools lending him to the position. Shouldn’t a complement to a workhorse be someone more electric?

Of course, the Falcons’ defensive ends (referring to John Abraham and Jamaal Anderson here) are pretty one-dimensional pass-rushers even for their position, and 2009 first-rounder Peria Jerry has been accused of being downright stinky against the run.

Note I don’t mention any linebackers in this conversation. That’s because (you guessed it) Lions halfbacks will be getting to the second level about as often as head coach Jim Schwartz gets a Gatorade shower.

This is preseason, so I bet defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder keeps Jerry and fellow DT Trey Lewis on the field in rushing situations for learning purposes. In my mind, Jonathan Babineaux (the last important tackle on the roster) has proved himself against the run.

I’ll be keeping my eyes open for Aaron Brown (Detroit’s sixth rounder this year) and Lawrence Sidbury (a DE we got in the fourth round this April); you should, too.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Detroit Rush Defense

I feel almost mean analyzing the ground games back-to-back, but the truth of the matter is this is where Detroit got battered the most last season, and it’s where they’ll get stung the worst this year.

Michael Turner will see a few carries, and if he puts in a 60 percent effort, he’ll get to the second level. Grady Jackson and Chuck Darby are old with a capital “O,” and guys like Andre Fluellen, Landon Cohen, and rookie Sammie Lee Hill who rotate in after them will get torched should they even see the Burner.

Heck, they might want some heat-protective gear when they see Jerious Norwood, for that matter. Detroit is better in their ‘backing corps, though that’s only if they play starters Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson much longer than is customary. See, their backups are two rookies and Alex Lewis (who?).

I’ll bet Thomas Brown gets some carries and even breaks out for a 12- or 13-yard run.

That’s just how this Lions team is, ahem, “constructed.”

 

Detroit Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

Finally, I can be just a tad bit more positive about the opponent.

We don’t know for sure who the Detroit starter is, and for that reason, we’ll see a lot of both candidates. Well, “a lot” meaning those two will take the majority of the snaps, but it’s not like the Lions’ D is going to keep them on the field that much…but I digress.

Whether it’s Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford, I think things are actually looking all right for the quarterback position of last year’s unvictorious squad. Sure, it’ll be Staff’s first-ever pro attempts, but there’s obviously something to the boy’s arm if he was atop literally everyone’s draft boards.  And I won’t proclaim Daunte incapable of captaining an NFL team until I see him really fall on his face.

Both will have trouble staying up, as the aforementioned weak-as-toilet paper O-line will crumple against Falcons first- and second-teamers alike, but when they get the ball off, good things might happen.

Of course, making it all a lot easier is this group of receivers, more or less the strength (now that feels weird to say) of the entire team. You’ve heard of Calvin Johnson, but in this situation you might catch glimpses of rookies WR Derrick Williams and TE Brandon Pettigrew, who should grow to compliment Calv quite well.

When the Falcons’ first-team secondary covers the pass-catchers in blue, I’ll have no qualms, and I’m perfectly comfortable with third cornerback Von Hutchins. But beyond that, our defensive backs unit’s depth has taken a bit of a hit with the injury to William Moore that forces Thomas DeCoud into starting duty.

It’s not that he’s not capable, it’s just that that exposes the shallowness of our safeties. There’s Jamaal Fudge behind him and…that’s about it.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Detroit Pass Defense

Now back to our regularly-scheduled programming: Bashing Dirty Bird foes. Besides the Lions’ D-line lacking anyone who really scares me as a rusher (especially not behind the starters), our receivers are just too much for a very shaky Detroit secondary to handle.

I see Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, and then D.J. Shockley each having time in the pocket, pretty much no matter who’s in front of them. It would take Julian Peterson coming hard at or around one of our second-team linemen (Quinn Ojinnaka or Will Svitek are two to watch) to really make me nervous.

Meanwhile, the handful of nondescript veteran Lions cornerbacks will be puzzled by our variety at receiver. After Roddy White and Michael Jenkins get their token touches, I’ll be excited to see just how healthy Brian Finneran is, not to mention who beyond Finn steps up and/or plays well in the slot.  Will it be newly-signed Marty Booker? Camp standout Troy Bergeron?  Or my personal pick, Eric Weems?

The point is, we have a great opportunity to figure out more about what we’ll do without Harry Douglas. I will be watching Lions rookie FS Louis Delmas, though, as this will be his first showing in what could be a long season full of starts.

Oh, and by the way: For the few moments that Coach Smith deems it necessary for Tony Gonzalez to be on the field, he will absolutely have his way. Detroit lacks any defender capable of matching up with Gonzo; even Anthony Henry is too small.

 

Prediction: Falcons 35, Lions 10

The Lions won’t be winless like last year, but it would be hard to play poorly enough, even in a preseason game, to lose this one. I will not discount the decent Lions’ special teams, especially their kicking units—that’s where the three points on top of the one TD come from.

Do Da Dirty Bird: Oh Yeah, and We Play the Bears and Niners, Too

Here we sit, one week before the “warmup games” begin. In the editions to date of DDDB, I’ve broken down our AFC East and NFC East matchups, given you the heads-up on potential breakout players, talked (with myself) about Michael Turner’s second-year production, and evaluated the impact of the Harry Douglas injury.

Before that (back when the column didn’t sport this cool name), I gave everyone an earful about Tony Gonzalez, the coaching staff, the divisional rivalries, the linebacking corps, etc.

I doubt you need to hear again that Roddy White has ended his holdout (way to go, both sides), and I refuse to write on Michael Vick. It’s not that he doesn’t deserve to play or that his destination is unimportant; it’s just that he’s, well, not a Falcon anymore.

So what to write on until later this week, when it’s time to preview our super-exciting preseason-opening showdown with the Lions?

Oh yeah, those other two teams on the docket: fellow second-place finishers Chicago and San Francisco. I suppose you’ll want to know what I predict for those two games, no?

 

Week Five: Down by the Bay

Hey, 49ers fans, you got your share of excitement back in the day. Take your decade in the doldrums like men, OK?

I say this completely tongue-in-cheek, of course, as for all the talent that’s on this roster, San Fran should be reemerging by now. Despite a strong finish to last season and a new offensive coordinator that fits the personnel better, ’09 will not be when the pain ends.

Jimmy Raye has a philosophy that suits these players a heck of a lot better than Mike Martz’s schemes did, but the fact remains that Shaun Hill (or Alex Smith, or J.T. O’Sullivan, or maybe just Steve Young’s left arm) is not a suitable quarterback for a playoff team, or even an 8-8 team.

Besides, who’s he going to throw to? A pile of money with googly eyes that the team saves by not signing Michael Crabtree?

John Abraham will have his way with an O-line that is too young in spots and unreliable in others; heck, maybe even Jamaal Anderson will get some penetration.

I’ve always liked Frank Gore, but if you can look me in the eye and say that he alone will manage to move the ball downfield against our decently deep defensive line and LBs Mike Peterson and Curtis Lofton, I’ll still not believe you.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Burner will get to at least the second level on most rushes, as the S.F. D-line focuses way too much on pass rushing. Sure, Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes will do a decent job stopping him, but only after he’s picked up six or seven.

By this point in the season, Matt Ryan will be comfortable enough with his targets to mix up over-the-tops to Gonzo with mid- to long-range bombs to Michael Jenkins and Roddy White. He’ll be “picking apart” underachieving Nate Clements, old-as-dirt Walt Harris, and a generally bad-in-coverage safety unit, anyway.

Sorry to be so down on you, Niners, but this is the way it’s going to be. The Dirty Birds are going to come to your place and show you just how far ahead the NFC South is.

Prediction: Falcons 35, 49ers 10

 

Week Six: More Like the Chicago Chipmunks

Sorry, just had to include a quote from one of the funniest movies of all time (first to identify it gets a pat on the back!). Seriously, this Bears team is even better than last season, when they proved they weren’t very far removed from their ’06 Super Bowl runner-up incarnation, but I see them coming up just short when they have to play us in the Dome.

I’m so tired of the talk it hurts to type the name, but Jay Cutler (ouch!) truly is a huge step up. Any personality or mental issues aside, he is the type of talent Chi-town has been searching for at QB for quite some time now, and him plus another productive season from Matt Forte could really equal a great offense to go with that classic Bears D if…

He didn’t have the same problem as the multi-headed signal caller in San Fran, in that he has no one to pass the ball to. Don’t get me wrong; I know Devin Hester has the ability to be a No. 1 and am a firm believer in SEC talent like Earl Bennett, but, um, hello guys, is anyone home?

A lack of targets means this offense is just too easy to predict; I could definitely see them punishing us on a few plays, but unless Cutler has instilled new confidence in his wideouts and Forte gets all the blocking he needs, they’re going to be just too inconsistent to score more than three times on us.

Meanwhile, Turner will be just effective enough to keep these still-very-good Bears ‘backers honest. Of course, none of them can handle Tony G on their own, so that’ll keep things open as well, but I’m fairly sure Michael will get his against an unstable (Dusty Dvoracek) and increasingly one-dimensional (Adewale Ogunleye) defensive line.

A bit of a disclaimer, though: He must watch out for Tommie Harris, but you knew that already, didn’t you?

The Bears’ secondary is obviously the Achilles’ heel of the D, as both corners and one safety are all injury concerns, and FS Josh Bullocks never impressed in the Big Easy. Much like Hester, Nathan Vasher has the physical tools to succeed, but he’s not capitalizing. Bad news is, unlike Devin, Nate won’t directly benefit from the arrival of Cutler.

Turner will at best just get to triple digits in rushing, and Matty only might sniff 200, but the varied attack and the stops on defense will be enough for the Falcons to overcome.

Prediction: Falcons 31, Bears 21

Do Da Dirty Bird: What No HD on Your TV Really Means

Chill out dude, the glimmering picture on your boob tube is just fine. I’m talking about HD as in Harry Douglas, No. 3 on the Dirty Bird wide receiver depth chart.

I need not ask readers how they reacted when they found out that the dynamic pass catcher and punt returner went down with a torn ACL. My only question is: Have you opened your eyes and ungritted your teeth yet?

It hurts a lot. We’ve just lost a guy for the season who I was extremely high on; back in the spring, I even went so far as to predict he might challenge Michael Jenkins for the No. 2 role. And though commentators quickly jumped all over me, SportsNation’s Pat Yasinkas later said the exact same thing.

But do not despair, especially not in the disruptive way I did when I first read the ESPN.com headline while sitting in my cubicle. The season is not lost. Our dynamic special teams have taken a hit for sure, but the offense isn’t really any worse off—besides the fact that we lost a body for a minute.

Brian Finneran may not have two knees, but he does have one and some sort of alien prosthesis, and I heard through the grapevine he’s managing just fine. Of course, we’ve also already signed a couple more guys (vets Marty Booker and Robert Ferguson) to bolster the corps as camp continues. Then there are undrafted rookies Aaron Kelly and Darren Mougey, with second-year man Eric Weems waiting in the wings.

Add to all that the rumor going around that our big offseason acquisition can catch passes, too (Gonzo’s got good hands? Who knew?), and maybe we aren’t going to be short on legitimate targets.

So assuage your fear that the Falcons won’t easily make the top five offensive squads in the league. It’s hard not to hate the fact that Douglas won’t be making noise bringing back booted balls in ’09, but after the following things happen, you’ll start feeling right as rain:

• Forward progress in the Roddy White negotiations: The injury is going to prompt one party (White and his representation) or the other (Thomas Dimitroff and the rest of the Falcons brass) to make some concessions and get Roddy into camp. Whether White makes an extremely mature and gracious gesture by realizing his team needs him now more than ever, or Dimitroff begins to see how important it is for players to feel properly taken care of, this holdout ain’t meant to last.

I refuse to paint either side as “right” or “wrong” in the situation, as both have their reasons. White fears an injury and wants some long-term security, while Dimitroff can’t cave to every whim of his stars. This is a case in which I expect men to act like men, though, and get things settled soon.

• The emergence of someone else on the roster: I listed some of the names before, but you probably are seeking specifics, so I’ll go ahead and divulge what my gut tells me. Eric Weems will not only make the roster, but play a lot more than he did last season. And for good reason.

He’s not exactly prototypical pro-wideout size, but therein lies the beauty. His stature and shiftiness (which is similar to Douglas’) complement the classic WR frames of White and Jenkins (not to mention the relative hulks that are Finneran, Gonzalez, Kelly, and Mougey).

• Thomas Brown proving he has a place in the NFL: Forgive me for a little University of Georgia bias, but I have several good reasons for believing in the sophomore as a punt returner. First, there’s the obvious, and that’s that Tommy is a friggin’ cannonball.

But beyond that, there’s also the fact that he brought it back a bit in college and has just the right type of hands for this sort of work, and that he’s got that much-glorified “low center of gravity” that makes him difficult to stop, let alone bring down. He’s also just a really determined young man with a slight chip on his shoulder after having his carries cut back during his senior season at UGA and getting no pro-game burn last year.

 

It’s barely been two days since the injury, and the message boards are aflame, contracts have been signed, and speculation is running rampant. That’s OK; I wouldn’t have it any other way, fellow Falcons fans.

I take heart knowing that this front office is more proactive than any other in Atlanta’s history, and in the fact that there are some free agent names still floating around out there just in case we want a little more insurance.

But, after some reflection and deep, deep breathing, I’ve come to the conclusion that losing Harry does not screw over our attempt at back-to-back winning seasons. Stuff like this helps keep my optimism in check, which is probably a good thing. I am now better prepared to handle a close loss (which may very well come as a result of a slightly weakened punt return unit).

We alright, Dirty Birds. Get well soon Harry!

Do Da Dirty Bird: Debating MichaelTurner’s ’09 Outlook…With Myself

Within each of us is both an optimist and a pessimist. In the editions of DDDB thus far, you, the readers, have seen mostly the knee-jerk Falcon defender, glass-is-half-full side of me. Today, though, I’m going to invite my other half out.

He’s the realist. He hears the haters all too loudly and clearly, and takes a bit too much of what they say to heart. He loves the Dirty Birds dearly, but never displays it outwardly, always maintaining cynicism. This, he thinks, prevents him from being heartbroken when his team inevitably disappoints him.

Everyone, welcome to the forum Mr. Storm-and-Clouds himself, “Dirty Doubter”, as he debates with my sunnier disposition (let’s call him “Bucky Bird”) over Michael Turner’s chances at another productive, injury-free season.

We’re wondering: Was the Burner’s huge 2008 workload (376 carries!) a virtual guarantee for an injury in ’09? Will a tougher schedule cause his numbers to plummet? And what is the team going to do to help him out?

All will be moderated by the mysterious “Man in Italics.” I’ll let him take it away with our first question.

 

A lot is being made of how the passing game improved last season, and how, with the addition of Tony Gonzalez and maturation of Roddy White and Harry Douglas, it will improve even more this season. Will it get much better, and how will that help take the pressure off the Burner? To you first, Mr. Doubter.

Dirty Doubter: There’s so much of this going around, and I’d love to believe it, but the passing game taking another huge step forward just is not going to happen.

Tony is old, people; what is he, 40? He’s certainly past his pass-catching prime. And if he does start catching a bunch of passes and Matty Ice starts using him as a bail-out, won’t that make our offense predictable again? That’s what we’re trying to avoid here, after all, defenses knowing that the ball is going to Michael every down.

Besides, Ryan is going to have on heck of a sophomore slump considering the difference in competition this season.

Bucky Bird: So you’re saying, Doubter, that the addition of Gonzo and the natural improvements of both Ryan and the receivers are going to do nothing to help out the running game?

Turner carried as many times as he did last season because handing the rock off to him was frequently the most effective thing the offense could do. The difference is there are more weapons in the passing game now. Some might be past their physical primes and others may still be working towards mental stability, but bottom line, there are more able bodies, and that at worst would mean marginal improvement.

 

Good points, both of you, but I’d have to say Bucky’s make more sense; the passing game certainly won’t be any worse.

Next up, I want to know what you think about Turner’s running style and mentality. Does his deliberate, up-the-gut manner make him more or less likely to continue his success?

DD: I don’t care what your style is, any time a guy carries the ball over 350 times in a season, he’s going to come back slower the next. Turner had to absorb an awful lot of contact in ’08, as evidenced by his number of broken tackles, so there’s no way that in just his second year of being a feature back he’s going to be 100 percent.

Mike doesn’t always need a fullback because of his build; you see him finding holes for himself quite frequently. But it would do his flesh and bones some good if he could learn to run behind somebody every now and then.

BB: Yes, every NFL running back takes a beating (both physical and psychological, no doubt). But Turner is better prepared to handle it and bounce back because he’s so compact and patient.

He might go up-the-gut, but he doesn’t do so in an Adrian-Peterson sort-of-way, just charging into the tackles. He seeks out holes and weaves in, though his frame does seem to attract bruising no matter how wide the gap.

 

Dirty’s right in that no man can carry the kind of load Burner did last season for two campaigns in a row. But perhaps his frame and personal choices put him just slightly ahead of others in his situation, like Bird mentioned.

Now, let’s say Turner’s carries do decrease a little, to preserve him. Obviously, some of those plays freed up will become passing plays, but what about the other carries and the man they’ll likely go to, Jerious Norwood? How do you feel about Norwood as a pro back?

BB: Jerious is a great complement to Turner. He’s blazingly fast, open-field or otherwise, and loves attacking the edges and even running reverses. Him running a crescent to the outside right after Michael charges up the middle is an excellent way to mix it up.

Plus, Norwood is about to be a free agent. Don’t tell me that won’t motivate him. Surely he’s inspired by Turner, who left a backup role to become a successful feature back?

DD: Jerious has done very little to impress me so far. He’s got breakout capability, yes, but he’s really done the most damage with that on special teams.

The number’s don’t lie: He barely sniffed 500 yards last season. Yep, Turner was the focus, but I think that was for good reason. Norwood lacks the size to ever be a starter, and he’s at best a so-so spell back.

 

Interesting takes. We’ll have to see just how many more touches Norwood gets this season and what he does with them. Note that before Burner came to the ATL, when Jerious was more featured, he wasn’t as reliable as one would hope of a starter.

But anyway, about this rough new schedule. Is facing the NFC East and AFC East instead of the AFC West and NFC North going to be a wake-up call for the offense and result in a big decline for Turner?

DD: In a word, um, yes. The Falcons really had it made in ’08, getting the two weakest divisions in the league and a fourth-place docket. Good thing the NFL has established this leviathan of parity scheduling to drag any and all upstarts back down to the depths.

Seeing the Patriots’ linebackers, the Giants’ defensive line, and the Cowboys’ and Eagles’ balanced units absolutely cannot help Michael Turner’s numbers. He’s got an OK line in front of him, but it’s old in the center, young on the outside, and really, really shallow. An injury to a trench man could mean Mike getting caught behind the line repeatedly, especially when facing guys like DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, and Jerod Mayo.

These are just straight-up better teams, and they won’t let Turner sneak up on them.

BB: My esteemed opponent seems to have forgotten that Burner only got better with experience against good defenses last year. He increased yardage against Carolina by 61 and hit Minnesota up for a TD in Week 16. Don’t tell me they didn’t have time to prepare!

Jon Beason, A.J. Hawk, and the Scotts (Shanle and Fujita) of the Saints are not players to be sneezed at, yet Turner did alright when he faced them. Besides, individual defenders don’t create match up problems for him; he creates match up problems for entire opposing units.

 

See what you’re saying, Bird, but I’d agree with Doubter that we’re talking about a whole new level of team with the new opponents.

To close things up, though, let’s talk about old opponents; those NFC South teams that we played twice last year and will play twice again this year. Obviously, some key games in that schedule, as this division has become as tough as practically any other. Will Tampa, Carolina, and New Orleans be prepared for Turner this season?

BB: Maybe I’m just too Southern, or too much of traditionalist, but I just don’t see the I formation with a back like Turner (and he is made for the I) losing its effectiveness, no matter how many times a defense has seen it. Michael improved his rushing totals over the two-game series with both Carolina and Tampa Bay last year, and just about held steady against N.O.

However those teams chose to adapt through the course of last season, it didn’t work all that well, now did it? We’ve already talked about how the passing game and increased carries for Norwood will keep teams guessing.

You can put yourself on the tracks in front of the train, but that don’t stop it comin’.

DD: Wow, way to be a hillbilly. The I is becoming a novelty as more and more offenses go to West Coast or even Wildcat.

The Saints’ D is better, and not just because Jonathan Vilma is back. New coordinator Gregg Williams could really turn New Orleans into a threat on both ends.

And just as you say there’s “no way” the passing game could get worse, there’s “no way” that the other NFC South defenses are going to be worse prepared for Turner. If you think they’re twiddling their thumbs, waiting for the Falcons to bulldoze them…

BB: Ever thought that because other offenses are getting more attention, I formation is getting more dangerous as teams get less familiar with it?

And no team in the NFC South was in the top half of the league in opponent rushing yards per game, and it’ll take a lot of Vilmas and Williamses to change that…

DD: Defense is about changing during the course of a game. If these teams couldn’t do it that fast in 2008, they’re probably caught up by now.

Think of it this way: A kid touches a hot stove, and it burns him. Is he going to…

Er, great job, gentlemen, but I’m going to have to cut you off there. Thanks to both of you for expressing your intriguing opinions on the Falcons’ and Michael Turner’s outlook.

Do Da Dirty Bird: Taking On More (NFC) East-ern Beasts

Allow me my one sentence of complaining…

“It plain stinks that the Falcons got dealt such a difficult schedule the year after an encouraging turnaround!”

…and that’s it.

DDDB is not about griping, and besides, that’s how I started off my first edition of the column (lamenting the dicey docket my team stares down at the moment).

I’m not saying one wouldn’t be justified in feeling just the tiniest bit intimidated by having to face the NFC East as your in-conference non-divisional opponents.

And heck, considering we’ve got that matchup in the same season that we’re playing the AFC East, I mean, I’d be within my rights to rant for a page or two…

No. Instead, I will give credit where credit is due (NFC East teams, y’all are darn good) and jump right into the real football talk.

 

Week Seven: Let’s Go See America’s Team

Perhaps the best way to wrap up my personal feelings towards the Cowboys is with some Jack Johnson lyrics:

Must I always be waitin’, waitin’ on you? / Must I always be playin’, playin’ your fool?

Every year I’m sure the ‘Boys are going to capitalize on their talent, take the NFC by storm, and play to their ability all the way to February.

And every year, I’m wrong; I’m left waiting until the next year to see if they can pull it together, and in the meantime, I look rather foolish (as I did this past winter, considering I proclaimed them Super Bowl Champs in the preseason last year).

For that reason, I’m done riding high with these horse-riders. Dallas hasn’t gotten any worse from last year, but if there’s one thing they’ve proved to me, it’s that they will have entire games in which they simply cannot get things done.

And even though the game’s at their place, they won’t get it done against my Dirty Birds this season.

It’s not that I overestimate the loss of Terrell Owens, though I don’t see his departure making the team significantly better, as some do. To me, Roy Williams and Jason Witten will step up enough that the team breaks even in the passing game.

This run game is still something fierce, so it’s not that that’s going to allow Atlanta to win, either.

Barber gets a lot of up-and-down treatment by the media due to inconsistency and injury concerns, but with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice both behind him and both a year older, the Cowboys will be plenty effective on the ground.

What is going to decide this contest is the lines—specifically the D-lines, and the special teams.

The fact of the matter is, even if Jamaal is playing like a lump at this point (I wouldn’t expect him to be on the field much in that case, but we’re talking worst-case scenario here), our boys still will have more energy.

Meanwhile, so-so coverage units matched up with Douglas and Norwood always spell trouble, and return-by-committee (who is it, Dallas? Austin? Jones? Crayton? Jenkins?) will at most hit one “home run” against solid Atlanta defenders.

With much respect to Dallas, as I like how the team is cleaning up its image and remaining very talented, I’m going to say the Falcons do this thing in the Lone Star and make Brooking wish he hadn’t left.

That being said, I pray our O-line is still intact when we face the boys in blue. I know about the nightmare that is Ware.

Prediction: Falcons 28, Cowboys 24

 

Week Nine: This is the Real Color Red

To me, the ‘Skins are sufferers; they’ve crafted plenty good squads, especially over the last few years, but always been cruelly selected by fate to experience a weird, inopportune slide or to have a divisional rival jump out of nowhere and overtake them.

Washington fans are probably about ready to choke me at this point, so I’ll get along with it: I’m a bit fond of this club, but I won’t let my feelings cloud my judgment. They have the least realistic shot of making the playoffs of all the NFC East teams.

Of course, that certainly doesn’t mean they don’t have a shot; it just means, there are reasons why they’re being picked for the bottom of the barrel in this savage division.

They’ve got a young quarterback who only some (among which I happen to be one, but I digress) believe in. It’s odd, because Jason Campbell is clearly an intelligent, collected person, yet his play comes off as bipolar.

In Week Nine, he could be going up or going down, but he will definitely be in flux; on the other hand, the Falcons rush will be all the more in-synch by that point.

Their receivers, whether for lack of quality QB play or individual slumps, have not been putting up the numbers they’re capable of.

Chris Cooley will seemingly always do what he does well, but Santana Moss lost a lot in the second half last season, and Randle El is showing his limitations more and more these days.

That lack of threat will allow the safeties of our still-coalescing secondary to key in on the run and simplify things.

The Falcons offense will want to use and reuse the drop and over-the-top passes to Tony Gonzalez, as the D.C. ‘backing corps isn’t particularly great (especially in coverage), and no one in the secondary can match Tony’s size.

Meanwhile, Albert Haynesworth and Michael Turner will wage a war that I think will eventually go to the cerebral and selective Burner.

I’ll certainly admit that I’m nervous about Peria Jerry trying to clog up Clinton Portis, but I find solace in the fact that Mike Peterson will be making a lot of on-field calls and getting Nicholas to where he needs to be. We’ve always got Lofton after them, too.

Washington largely has the same roster that made the ’07 playoffs, and I loved that team, but this contest being in the Dome tips it our way for sure.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Redskins 17

 

Week 11: Scratching and Clawing at the G-Men

So that we’re clear, I would have preferred to see 19-0 in my lifetime. You know, just something to tell the grandkids…

But the Giants are an awesome team. Maybe not quite as good as some of you fanboys think, but I’m hard-pressed to come up with an NFC squad that is clearly “superior.”

Most of the talk is about the D, and rightfully so, but when I think of this NY team, I think more of the trenches.

Not to take anything away from LBs Antonio Pierce and Michael Boley (*cough*traitor*cough*) or CBs Webster and Ross, but the four men on the front and the five that mirror them on O are the true superstars.

From LT Dave Diehl to underrated C Shaun O’Hara over to the two ends your QB ain’t never gonna forget, Tuck and Umenyiora, it’s the big guys who have the big names and do the big work on this roster.

I’m not saying there isn’t a little skill, too. Having someone with the last name “Manning” at QB is a blessing, no matter if he’s the older or younger, and you should know that by now, naysayers.

And while one might think the three-back system took a hit with Derrick Ward leaving, they’re actually just as prepared with either Andre Brown or Danny Ware picking up some slack.

And I could go on, get into the coaching staff, but perhaps I ought to actually address the matchup…

There are some things to take to heart, Falcons faithful. Any “weakness” of our secondary will be difficult for the Giants to expose, considering their hodgepodge of receivers.

Of course, by Week 11, they’ll likely have things hammered out, but we’re still better off than if a concentrated Plaxico Burress were on the field.

And also, I’d give Turner a decent chance at breaking out on a few in this game; the interior of NY’s defense is just slightly softer than the outside, and if Mike can make it to the second level and past a LB (likely Danny Clark, a good run stopper), he’ll just need to blow by two baby safeties (Phillips and Johnson) to see the end zone.

But as they say, reality bites, and those two things are not going to be enough to make Atlanta triumphant in Giants Stadium in late November.

I’m not positive NY will even match last year’s 12-4 regular season record, but they’ll be a better team because they’ll have fewer distractions. That will allow them to avoid the late slump they suffered in ’08.

In other words, we could very likely be the first casualty of a seven-game win streak that they end their regular campaign on.

Prediction: Giants 24, Falcons 10

 

Week 13: Fight Between “Birds of a Feather”

I think everyone knows the Eagles have some things to work out. By the same token, I think everyone knows that should the Eagles work out just half of those things, they’re gonna be good—like NFC-Championship good.

The team needs to know exactly where Donovan McNabb’s head is at. I for one am not terribly concerned; he’s a dynamic talent with a dynamic personality, but he is not a diva ala former partner T.O.

And even if he is a bit disgruntled (still steaming over the benching? The word is that maybe he is, maybe he isn’t), he’s still got the potential to be a top-five quarterback.

By Week 13, Philly will have their answer, and the Falcons secondary will have their young hands full trying to figure him out.

The team also needs to know just how much they can get out of a young receiving corps. It was good to see DeSean Jackson play as well as he did in his first pro year, but he needs help. The last time the Eagles were truly set at receiver was in ’04.

Then again, considering who they had back then, were they really set? They can’t strike rookie receiver gold twice: Maclin will not be a star right away. The Falcons can outperform them catching the ball.

And finally, the Eagles must ask themselves just how much they will miss veterans Tra Thomas and Brian Dawkins.

I don’t feel so bad about losing a 13th-year tackle when the projected group of five all have either five or six years’ experience, but I’m not so sure Asante Samuel or Quintin Mikell can set the tone for the D the way Dawkins did.

But again, this is Week 13 we’re talking about. Things will largely be sorted out. Either that, or the Eagles will have wasted tremendous potential.

The thing about this late-season Atlanta—Philadelphia match-up for me is the well-roundedness of the Eagles’ D.

Home-field won’t be enough when there are just no glaring holes, except for maybe the aforementioned leadership, but when has Andy Reid ever let a unit run willy-nilly?

I have full faith that we can rotate the offensive attack to accentuate situational strengths, but I do not think we’ll actually punch it in enough times to have more points on the board than Brian Westbrook puts up.

Of course, he could be hurt (though that would be just awful), in which case we could manage. As long as he’s clicking, though, the Philly offense will click enough to notch just a few more.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Falcons 21

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