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Fantasy Scouting Report: Jason Witten
Published: August 29, 2009
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Jason Witten
Dallas Cowboys
Age: 27
Height: 6’5’’
Weight: 262lbs
Bye: 6
Why We Like Him
What makes Witten such a great fantasy tight end is that quarterback Tony Romo absolutely loves to thrown him the football. Witten finished 2008 ranked third amongst tight ends in receptions (81), second in yards (952) and second in targets (121). His numbers would have been even more impressive if he wasn’t battling a busted rib for multiple weeks during the middle of the season. He’s got exceptional hands and is very good at using his body to get into position.
The key to Witten’s success in 2009 will be the play of the Dallas wide receivers (Williams, Crayton, Austin). If they can get up the field and force the opposing defenses to roll coverage, Witten will once again be free to take advantage of personnel mismatches.
Why We Don’t Like Him
As we’ve mentioned time and time again, the key to the Cowboys’ success on offense this season rests on the shoulders of wide receiver Roy Williams. Despite Terrell Owens’ decline in production last year, he still forced defenses to game plan around him each week, opening up the rest of the field for guys like Witten.
If Williams is unable to create separation and cause matchup problems, the entire offense is going to suffer. Additionally, second year tight end Martellus Bennett will likely steal a few targets this season.
Fantasy Outlook
While a lot depends on Roy Williams’ performance, Witten is still going to see a healthy dose of targets in 2009. He’s a consistent fantasy producer (five plus receptions in 11 games last year) and can play at a very high level when healthy.
Witten’s production resembles that of a wide receiver instead of a tight end, so he’s likely to start flying off the boards between the fourth and fifth rounds. Be prepared to pull the trigger early if you value high-level production from the tight end position.
Check out more scouting reports HERE!
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Fantasy Scouting Report: Maurice Jones-Drew
Published: August 28, 2009
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Maurice Jones-Drew
Jacksonville Jaguars
Age: 24
Height: 5’7’’
Weight: 208lbs
Bye: 7
Why We Like Him: MJD finally steps into the starting role after spending the first three years of his career in Fred Taylor’s shadow. Despite splitting carries and running behind an awful Jacksonville offensive line, Jones-Drew managed to finish the 2008 season as a top ten fantasy running back.
A shifty runner who is dangerous in open space, MJD’s talent lies in his ability to make plays in the Jaguars’ passing game. He led all running backs last season in receiving yards (565), finished second in receptions (62) and third in targets (75).
The Jaguars’ bulked up their offensive line on draft weekend by using their first two picks on offensive tackles Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and Eben Britton (Arizona).
Why We Don’t Like Him: Can he handle the workload? Jones-Drew has terrorized defenses the last three seasons in his complementary role, but now that he is “the man” in Jacksonville, fantasy owners need to know if he can live up to expectations.
A red flag we noticed while studying film was MJD’s fourth quarter production.
He averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter last season, his lowest total for any quarter (4.0 first, 4.6 second, 4.2 third). If he struggled down the stretch in a committee arrangement last year, he may have some trouble getting it done on his own.
Fantasy Outlook: The Jaguars offense should find more success moving the football in 2009 and MJD should be a big part of it. The upgrades on the offensive line as well as the addition of free agent wide receiver Torry Holt will take some of the pressure off of quarterback David Garrard’s shoulders and allow him more flexibility in the passing game.
Think of MJD as a Brian Westbrook-type running back on a less-impressive offense. Consider him a top-five draft pick, but be sure to check back with us as we monitor his second half production early in the season.
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Fantasy Scouting Report: Randy Moss
Published: August 27, 2009
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Randy Moss
New England Patriots
Age: 32
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 210 lbs
Bye: 8
Why We Like Him: Moss is still one of the best big-play wide receivers in the NFL. He possesses a rare combination of speed, size and balance which makes trying to contain him an absolute nightmare. While his numbers were slightly down in 2008, owners need to remember that the guy throwing him the rock (Matt Cassel) hadn’t started a football game since he was in high school.
In any event, Moss posted yet another top ten fantasy finish by catching 69 passes (28th) for 1,008 yards (21st) and 11 touchdown (third). All-World quarterback Tom Brady returns to the New England lineup this season, instantly elevating Moss’ 2009 fantasy value.
Why We Don’t Like Him: This is the place where some people might tell you that his age, character concerns and quarterback’s knee are a problem. We aren’t buying it. Moss still has the speed to get vertical on the outside and hasn’t created any sort of “off the field issue” since arriving in New England two years ago.
The only possible worry with Moss is the nasty New England weather that comes rolling through in November and December. The good news however, is that even some wind and snow can’t stop this passing attack.
Fantasy Outlook: After watching what this offense did in 2007 we are surprised there isn’t more hype surrounding Moss heading into 2009. The Patriots are going to once again throw the ball like crazy, meaning the targets, receptions and yards will be there. Additionally, Moss is still one of the scariest red zone threats in the league, having scored an absurd 34 receiving touchdowns over the past two years.
Don’t get caught thinking negative about Moss on draft day—it will come back to haunt you. Look for him at the beginning of the second round. Remember, this team is still pissed about that Super Bowl loss against the Giants in 2008. They are looking for redemption.
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The Rookie Report: Who Brings The Best Value?
Published: August 25, 2009
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With just over two weeks until the start of the 2009 NFL season, fantasy football drafts are in full swing around the world.
We always preach value here at the National Football Post, and some of the best fantasy value picks are always rookies. Why? Because they’re not as well known as many veterans, which tends to drop their ADP (average draft position).
However, you can’t just head into your fantasy draft and look to snag every rookie on the board. You have to know which first-year players are worth a roster spot and, more importantly, which ones are not.
Let’s take a closer look at this year’s rookie class…
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that if you haven’t already purchased the NFP Total Access Pass, you’re missing out. It launches one week before the start of the season and will be your source for all the information you need to destroy your fantasy league this season: Sunday morning live chats, start ‘em/sit ‘em analysis, projections, up-to-date injury reports and much, much more. Check it out HERE.
The Rookie Report
QUARTERBACKS
1. Matthew Stafford—Detroit Lions
ADP: 155.8
Highest round drafted: Ninth
Lowest round drafted: Free Agent
Most common round selected: 14th
The Scoop: Stafford is not fantasy viable this season unless you’re looking for a QB3 in a deep fantasy league. He hasn’t officially won the starting job in Detroit yet and has (predictably) looked shaky during the preseason (12 for 27, 148 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions). He has keeper league potential as a late-round selection, but that’s about it.
2. Mark Sanchez—New York Jets
ADP: 161.3
Highest round drafted: 11th
Lowest round drafted: Free Agent
Most common round selected: 14th
The Scoop: If you watched Monday Night Football and saw Sanchez take on the Ravens you now know exactly why rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle: pressure. The Ravens threw everything at Sanchez and were able to rattle him early, forcing an interception that Haloti Ngata took back to the house. Sanchez is going to develop into a good NFL quarterback. It just won’t happen soon enough for you to consider drafting him.
Notables
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Freeman makes it onto the field in 2009, it won’t happen until around the middle of the season. He needs a lot of work and, more importantly, an opportunity. Keep him off your draft board.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Knowshon Moreno—Denver Broncos
ADP: 56.7
Highest round drafted: Third
Lowest round drafted: Eighth
Most common round selected: Fifth
The Scoop: Moreno is currently nursing a sprained knee, which has caused his value to drop. Couple that with the fact everyone on the planet thinks he’ll be splitting carries with 31 different running backs and you get a rookie who is slipping down the boards. Don’t worry, this kid will impress this year. For any of you who watched the Denver-Seattle game late Saturday night (don’t tell me I’m the only loser who was home watching it), you saw the Broncos’ offensive line blowing open holes that made Correll Buckhalter look like a star. When Moreno comes back, he’ll be making plays. Look for him if you target more than one wide receiver early in your draft.
2. Beanie Wells—Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 77.1
Highest round drafted: Fourth
Lowest round drafted: Ninth
Most common round selection: Seventh
The Scoop: Don’t tell me the myriad of injuries Wells has been dealing with surprises you. If it does, you clearly did not read our Draft Guide. Beanie was injury prone at Ohio State, and it looks like his luck at the NFL level is no different. If he can get healthy and back on the field, he’ll be able to score some touchdowns. But I don’t like the idea of drafting him before the eighth round. Call me crazy, but I don’t see him playing 16 games this year.
3. Donald Brown–Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 79.7
Highest round drafted: Fifth
Lowest round drafted: 10th
Most common round selection: Seventh
The Scoop: One of our favorite rookies heading into 2009, Brown has been turning heads and climbing up boards the past few weeks. Reports out of Indy are praising him for his work ethic and study habits. Brown is a very dynamic back who has posted some decent numbers in two preseason games (eight carries, 63 yards). He fits the Colts’ offense beautifully, which is why they drafted him in the first round. Put an asterisk next to Brown’s name because this is a guy you want on your team this season. Start thinking about him when you enter the sixth round.
4. LeSean McCoy—Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 81.4
Highest round drafted: Sixth
Lowest round drafted: 13th
Most common round selection: Eighth
The Scoop: A dual-threat back who fits nicely in the Eagles’ pass-first offense, McCoy has a big advantage heading into the 2009 season: He’s been getting all of the first team reps. Granted, Pro Bowl running back Brian Westbrook is going to be the starting back in Week 1, but he’s missed almost the entire summer due to ankle surgery. That means McCoy is getting valuable experience working with McNabb and the rest of the Eagles’ starters. Remember, B-West has never made it through a full 16-game season in his career.
5. Shonn Greene—New York Jets
ADP: 118.2
Highest round drafted: Seventh
Lowest round drafted: 15th
Most common round selection: 10th
The Scoop: A deep sleeper with a ton of upside, the word is out on this beast from Iowa. Greene has been slowly climbing up draft boards, and for good reason. He’s going to get a share of the workload and is likely to see some quality action on the goal line in 2009. If Thomas Jones is on the Jets’ roster in Week 1, Greene may not be worthy of a starting roster spot on most fantasy teams. But this is a guy who has big-time potential in keeper leagues. Look for him late.
Notables
Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers: Pro Bowl running back Frank Gore is going to get almost all the touches, but Coffee is a handcuff that all Gore owners MUST draft.
James Davis, Cleveland Browns: Davis has an ADP of 161.7, which is amazing to me because he’s the No. 3 running back on a bad Cleveland team. Owners are advised to look at the elusive Jerome Harrison in the later rounds instead of Davis.
Mike Goodson, Carolina Panthers: Goodson has a ton of talent but two big factors working against him. First, he’s playing behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, so his touches will be extremely limited. Second, he’s a trouble-maker with a checkered past. There’s always a reason a big-time talent like Goodson falls in April during the draft: too many red flags.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Percy Harvin—Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 95.5
Highest round drafted: Sixth
Lowest round drafted: 12th
Most common round selection: Eighth
The Scoop: The addition of quarterback Brett Favre has predictably increased Harvin’s draft position. He’s one of the only rookie receivers we really like this season because of his ability to make plays in open space. Look for head coach Brad Childress to try and take advantage of Harvin’s skill set by moving him around at the line of scrimmage in an effort to get the ball into his hands in a number of different ways. Harvin is worthy of a mid- to late-round draft pick, but don’t overpay, especially when you can get a player like Nate Washington two rounds later.
2. Michael Crabtree—San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 102.2
Highest round drafted: Seventh
Lowest round drafted: 12th
Most common round selection: Ninth
The Scoop: Why would anyone draft Crabtree? We advised against drafting him in July, and we’ll continue to do so as long as you guys keep reading these columns. He’s not signed, not in camp and most likely has no idea what the 49ers’ playbook looks like. Does this sound like a guy you can count on in fantasy? DO NOT DRAFT MICHAEL CRABTREE.
3. Jeremy Maclin—Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 127.8
Highest round drafted: Eighth
Lowest round drafted: 15th
Most common round selection: 11th
The Scoop: Those of you who have read my stuff before know I’m an Eagles fan, but even I wouldn’t draft Maclin this season. He was nine days late getting into camp and won’t see much action in 2009 with the starting unit. The crazy thing is that he’s currently struggling to win the starting spot returning punts. See what a holdout gets you, Jeremy? You can get better value in the 11th round than Maclin. He won’t see enough reps to crack your starting lineup.
4. Hakeem Nicks—New York Giants
ADP: 144.0
Highest round drafted: 10th
Lowest round drafted: Free Agent
Most common round selection: 13th
The Scoop: Nicks is off to a rough start in the Big Apple. Rather than give you my analysis on the situation, just click here and scroll down to see Lombardi’s take. It isn’t pretty. To make a long story short, don’t draft him.
5. Darrius Heyward-Bey—Oakland Raiders
ADP: 151.3
Highest round drafted: 10th
Lowest round drafted: Free Agent
Most common round selection: 13th
The Scoop: He’s only caught one pass for eight yards so far this preseason, so there isn’t much to get excited about at the moment. DHB has had some trouble holding on to the football, but what’s more unnerving is the Raiders’ quarterback situation. With JaMarcus Russell recently being named the starter in Oakland, how comfortable can you feel about a rookie wideout who can’t catch the football? I’d rather target Johnnie Lee Higgins toward the end of my fantasy draft than DHB. He has a lot to learn.
6. Brian Robiskie—Cleveland Browns
ADP: 157.7
Highest round drafted: 10th
Lowest round drafted: Free Agent
Most common round selected: 14th
The Scoop: Robiskie is currently battling for the No. 2 spot in Cleveland, but even if he wins the job, the rookie wideout doesn’t bring much value to the table. That’s not to say he doesn’t have talent because he does. The problem in Cleveland is the quarterback situation. Both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson have struggled this preseason (don’t read too much into Anderson’s performance against the Lions), and without some consistent play from the QB position, Robiskie’s growth will be slower than head coach Eric Mangini would like. Let him fall to waivers, but keep an eye on his progress in 2009.
Notables
Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans: The big, physical target out of Rutgers looked sharp against the Buccaneers as he caught five passes for 89 yards and one touchdown. I don’t recommend going after him on draft day, but he could be a decent waiver wire pickup in the middle of the season.
TIGHT ENDS
Note: Currently, none of the following tight ends is worth a draft pick. However, a couple of these rookies could emerge later in the season as decent waiver pickups.
Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions: Pettigrew will see the most playing time of all the 2009 rookie tight ends, but that isn’t saying much. Detroit is in a rebuilding phase and hasn’t even settled on a quarterback yet. In addition, the inconsistent play of the offensive line will force new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to keep Pettigrew in on a portion of the Lions’ passing plays in an effort to provide more protection. Look for a fantasy option with more experience.
Chase Coffman, Cincinnati Bengals: One of the most appealing rookie tight ends, Coffman is in a nice position heading into 2009. Injuries to Reggie Kelly and Ben Utecht have paved the way for the former Missouri standout to step into the starting lineup. Keep an eye on him.
Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans: A physical specimen who possesses all the tools, Cook has caught 12 passes for 120 yards this preseason. Unfortunately, he’s got Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler ahead of him on the depth chart. The good news is that this kid will be a force in the coming years.
James Casey, Houston Texans: The Texans are looking to use Casey in a variety of different ways in 2009, none of which will make him a viable fantasy option. He’s at least one year away from roster status.
Shawn Nelson, Buffalo Bills: Nelson will need some time to develop, but he’s an outstanding athlete with exceptional hands. If the Bills could get some more consistent protection from their offensive line, Nelson would have a better chance of getting down the field and making plays.
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh
Fantasy Scouting Report: Brandon Jacobs
Published: August 24, 2009
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Brandon Jacobs
New York Giants
Age: 26
Height: 6’4’’
Weight: 264 lbs
Bye: 10
Why We Like Him: Jacobs is one of the most impressive physical specimens playing in the NFL today. His size and power give him the ability to run through just about any tackler in the game.
But what’s even more astounding is his footwork and the way Jacobs can make defenders miss and outrun opponents in the open field…at 264 pounds!
He runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football and averaged a staggering 5.0 yards per carry last year (seventh).
In addition, Jacobs has a nose for the end zone. Last season he scored in nine games and put up five multi-touchdown performances, despite missing three games due to injury.
Why We Don’t Like Him: Big Blue’s offensive philosophy is to wear down opponents and take advantage in the fourth quarter. This usually means employing a running back by committee approach in order to keep all of their rushers fresh for the second half.
Despite putting up a 1,000+ yard season in 2008, Jacobs ranked 19th in carries (219). Look for former third-string running back Ahmad Bradshaw to step into the reserve roll vacated by Derrick Ward.
Additionally, Jacobs won’t get you any fantasy points through the air. He’s only caught 40 passes in four NFL seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: A lot of Jacobs’ production will depend on two things. First, can Bradshaw step up as the Giants No. 2 running back? We think he can. Second, can quarterback Eli Manning succeed in the passing game despite the loss of red zone target Plaxico Burress?
This one’s a little trickier. If New York can get their passing game going and effectively move the football down the field, Jacobs will once again be a fantasy beast. Don’t let him fall beyond the start of the second round. He’s a touchdown machine.
Check out more scouting reports HERE!
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Fantasy Scouting Report: Roddy White
Published: August 20, 2009
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Roddy White
Atlanta Falcons
Age: 27
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 208lbs
Bye: Week Four
Why We Like Him: White is quickly turning into one of the NFL’s elite receivers as he possesses blazing open field speed and reliable hands. He was instrumental in Atlanta’s turnaround last season, ranking fourth in receiving yards (1,382), eighth in receptions (88), 10th in touchdowns (seven), and seventh in targets (148) as he closed out his best professional campaign as a top-five fantasy wide receiver.
What we love about White is his dependability.
He posted seven games with 100+ receiving yards and caught 5 or more passes in ten contests last year. As sophomore quarterback Matt Ryan continues to improve, White’s numbers will continue to impress.
Bruising running back Michael Turner and new addition Tony Gonzalez will help keep defenses honest, leaving White free to cause havoc on the outside.
Why We Don’t Like Him: While the addition of Gonzalez will keep defenses from rolling coverage in White’s direction, it will also have a negative impact on his red zone targets.
Gonzo is one of the NFL’s best tight ends when his offense gets near the goal line and owners should expect Ryan to be looking his way when the Falcons get close to pay dirt.
Additionally, the Falcons don’t have the element of surprise in 2009 like they did last year, meaning opposing teams are going to be ready for them every week.
Fantasy Outlook: The upside here is so good that owners should feel comfortable pulling the trigger on White. He’s young and has all the physical tools you could ask for in a top-notch wide out.
In addition, Ryan will continue to get better as he gets more experience under center and the potent Atlanta rushing attack will force the opposition to play honest, opening up the secondary for White to strike.
While Gonzo is sure to steal some red zone targets, his presence is still a benefit for White. Target him towards the fourth round.
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Fantasy Scouting Report: Steve Slaton
Published: August 14, 2009
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Steve Slaton
Houston Texans
Age: 23
Height: 5’9’’
Weight: 203lbs
Bye: Week 10
Why We Like Him: A multi-purpose back with explosive open field speed, Slaton is a guy you can build your fantasy team around. He’s coming off a rookie season in which he finished in the top 10 in scoring for fantasy running backs.
Slaton’s got great hands and is a popular and efficient target for quarterback Matt Schaub. He hauled in 50 of 59 targets, had nine games with 100+ total yards and ranked 10th in yards per carry, with a 4.8 YPC average (minimum 75 attempts).
The Houston offense is one of the more explosive units in the league. Opposing defenses are forced to key wide receivers Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, not to mention tight end Owen Daniels, leaving Slaton free to expose the open field underneath via the ground and air.
Why We Don’t Like Him: The Texans’ offensive success will once again be tied to the health of quarterback Matt Schaub. If he goes down (which he has a tendency to do), Slaton’s receiving numbers could take a hit. In the five games Schaub missed last season, Slaton only caught five passes for 72 yards and no touchdowns.
There is some talk about Houston trying to work another running back into the rotation to keep Slaton fresh, meaning he may lose some touches throughout the season.
Fantasy Outlook: There’s a popular fear that successful rookie running backs will experience a “sophomore slump” during their second season, but we aren’t worried about any such nonsense with Slaton. The Houston offense is still very lethal and Double S is a very integral part of that.
Additionally, the Texans defense should once again struggle to slow down opposing offenses, meaning the Houston offense will have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. We consider Slaton a top-tier running back so make sure he doesn’t fall past the top seven on draft day.
If you like these scouting reports, be sure to check out our 2009 Fantasy Draft Guide.
Hit me up on Twitter @ Joe Fortenbaugh
2009 NFL Offensive Line Rankings
Published: August 11, 2009
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“It all starts up front.”
That’s one of the most commonly-used phases around the National Football Post. Why?
Because the ability to provide adequate pass protection and effective run blocking are the keys to offensive success.
Quarterbacks need time to get through their reads, wide receivers need time to get down the field and running backs need holes to burst through for positive gains. Without a stout and efficient offensive line, it becomes very difficult to move the football.
Yeah, I know the Steelers won the Super Bowl last year with a suspect line. But let’s face facts: Their defense is nasty, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s size helps him shed would-be tacklers, buying him extra time in the pocket.
Take a look at the top seven offensive lines from 2008 in terms of fewest sacks allowed:
1. Tennessee Titans (playoffs)
2. Denver Broncos (12th-ranked rushing offense)
3. New Orleans Saints (top-ranked passing offense)
4. Indianapolis Colts (playoffs)
5. Atlanta Falcons (playoffs)
6. Carolina Panthers (playoffs)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (playoffs)
It should come as no surprise that five of the top seven teams made the playoffs last year.
Sacks allowed isn’t the only statistic we took into account when we put together these rankings, but it’s an important one.
Here are the NFP’s 2009 offensive line rankings. And be sure to check out some of the new features we have inside the NFP Draft Guide!
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh
1. New York Giants
The Big Blue offensive line anchored the league’s No. 1-ranked rushing attack in 2008.
2. Tennessee Titans
Led by Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae, the Titans allowed a league-low 12 sacks last season.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Birds gained some serious beef up front by trading for Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (Buffalo) and signing free agent guard Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati) in the offseason.
4. Atlanta Falcons
This unit paved the way for Pro Bowl running back Michael Turner to gain 1,699 yards on the ground, good for second in the NFL last year.
5. Carolina Panthers
Allowed just 20 sacks (sixth in NFL) and set the tempo for a rushing attack that averaged 152.3 yards per game (third in NFL).
6. Minnesota Vikings
Led by Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson, the Vikings’ offensive line has the pleasure of blocking for All-World running back Adrian Peterson, who has amassed 3,101 yards on the ground over the past two seasons, tops in the NFL.
7. Denver Broncos
Left tackle Ryan Clady sets the tone for a unit that allowed just 12 sacks in 2008, tied with Tennessee for best in the league.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Center Jason Brown is gone, but the Ravens filled their needs up front by signing free agent center Matt Birk (Minnesota) and drafting offensive tackle Michael Oher (Ole Miss). Baltimore finished 2008 ranked fourth in rushing yards per game (148.5) and fifth in rushing touchdowns (20).
9. Miami Dolphins
One of the league’s more underappreciated units, the Fish finished 2008 ranked 10th in sacks allowed (26) and 11th in rushing offense (118.6 yards per game).
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This unit is just starting to come into its own as the average age on the line is 25.6 years old.
11. Dallas Cowboys
One of the most experienced offensive lines in the league, the five starters combine for 45 years of service in the NFL.
12. Houston Texans
They may not be household names, but this group led the way for the offense to pile up some monster numbers in 2008. The Texans ranked third in total offense (382.1 yards/game), fourth in passing offense (266.7 yards/game), and 13th in rushing offense (115.4 yards/game).
13. New York Jets
This unit paved the way for a 30-year-old running back (Thomas Jones) to finish fifth in rushing (1,312 yards) while scoring a career-best 13 touchdowns.
14. New England Patriots
With future Hall of Famer Tom Brady back in the pocket, forget about it. This offense is going to be lights out again in 2009. Coach Bill Belichick is the master of game planning and scheming.
15. New Orleans Saints
There’s something to be said about an offensive line that only allows 13 sacks (third in NFL) in 635 passing attempts (league high).
16. Indianapolis Colts
They did an excellent job protecting Peyton Manning (14 sacks allowed, fourth in the NFL), but blocked for a rushing attack that averaged a pathetic 79.6 yards per game (31st).
17. Green Bay Packers
Average age of a starting lineman in Green Bay is 27.8 years old (good). This offensive line anchored a rushing attack that ranked 17th in the NFL and averaged 112.8 yards per game in 2008 (pretty good). They gave up 34 sacks and ranked 19th in the league (not so good).
18. Cleveland Browns
If they got better play out of the quarterback position and had a faster running back carrying the football, this line would get more credit.
19. Chicago Bears
If free agent acquisition Orlando Pace (St. Louis) can regain his Pro Bowl form at age 34, this unit will start climbing the boards.
20. Arizona Cardinals
It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals can improve on a 2008 NFL-worst 73.6 rushing yards per game. They love to throw, so the line can’t take the heat for the poor rushing totals.
21. San Diego Chargers
The rushing numbers took a dip last season. Was it because LaDainian Tomlinson was a bit slower getting through the hole or because the line wasn’t getting the job done? A healthy L.T. will answer that question.
22. St. Louis Rams
Made some much needed improvements during the offseason by drafting top offensive tackle prospect Jason Smith (Baylor) and signing free-agent center Jason Brown (Baltimore).
23. Seattle Seahawks
Thirty-five-year-old left tackle Walter Jones is banged up at the moment. He needs to get healthy in a hurry for this group to succeed.
24. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders must cut down on the 39 sacks they allowed last season for quarterback JaMarcus Russell to take the next step.
25. Buffalo Bills
The Bills traded Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to Philadelphia and now have two rookies (Eric Wood from Louisville and Andy Levitre out of Oregon State) in the starting five. Expect them to struggle in 2009.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Allowed 42 sacks in 2008 (25th in NFL) and decided to use the draft to solve their problems by selecting offensive tackles Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and Eben Britton (Arizona). They’ll need time to develop.
27. San Francisco 49ers
Yikes. Ranked 32nd in sacks allowed (55) and 27th in rushing yards per game (99.9) despite having running back Frank Gore in the backfield.
28. Washington Redskins
Three of the five starters are over 30. That doesn’t bode well for a quarterback who struggles and a running back who’s entering the twilight of his career.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer is going to be under heavy pressure this season. Cincy ranked 30th in sacks allowed last year (51) and lost Stacy Andrews to free agency.
The good news: They drafted offensive tackle Andre Smith (Alabama) in the first round. The bad news: Smith is in the midst of a holdout that’s nowhere close to being resolved and he’s out of shape. Ouch.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers did nothing to improve an offensive line that gave up 49 sacks (29th in NFL) on one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league to bring down. Then again, they did win the Super Bowl, so something has to be working.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
If Matt Cassel took 47 sacks playing in New England with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, what’s going to happen in Kansas City with no Tony Gonzalez?
32. Detroit Lions
2008: 31st in sacks allowed (52) and 30th in rushing yards per game (83.2). Yes, the low rushing total resulted because the Lions were throwing late in games, but this unit still needs a ton of work.
Fantasy Scouting Report: Nate Washington
Published: August 10, 2009
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Nate Washington
Tennessee Titans
Age: 25
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 185lbs
Bye: 7
Why We Like Him: A vertical threat with very explosive deep speed, Washington signed with the Titans this past offseason and now finally gets a chance to be an every-down receiver.
He posted a respectable stat line with the Steelers in 2008 (40 receptions, 631 yards, 3 touchdowns) despite seeing limited action in an offensive system that is predicated on running the football.
Washington is averaging a very impressive 16.4 yards per reception for his career, meaning he’s dangerous in open space when he’s got the football in his hands. The Titans’ two-headed rushing attack featuring Chris Johnson and LenDale White will force opposing defenses to respect the run, leaving the secondary vulnerable at times for Washington to exploit.
Remember, despite his age, quarterback Kerry Collins still throws a very nice deep ball.
Why We Don’t Like Him: Washington is unproven as an every down receiver, so there may be some hiccups in his development as he gets accustomed to the extra snaps.
In addition, Tennessee will once again be a ball-control football team, meaning they play good defense combined with a relatively conservative offensive game plan. However, we do expect them to open up the passing game a little more in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook: Washington has the potential to be one of the best value picks at wide receiver in this year’s draft. He’s got great speed, reliable hands and an explosive burst that makes him difficult to track down in the open field.
The Tennessee offense will still be relatively conservative this season, so owners shouldn’t expect ridiculous numbers. However, the NFP preaches upside and Washington has it.
Look for him in the middle rounds. He has the potential to crack the starting lineup and make a serious impact for a very reasonable price.
If you liked this scouting report be sure to check out the 2009 National Football Post Fantasy Draft Guide.
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh
Fantasy Scouting Report: Greg Olsen
Published: August 9, 2009
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Greg Olsen—Chicago Bears
Age: 24
Height: 6’5’’
Weight: 255lbs
Bye: 5
Why We Like Him:
Olsen showed steady improvement in his second NFL season and finished as a top ten fantasy tight end despite starting only seven games in 2008. With Kyle Orton leading the offense, Olsen finished last season ranked 10th in receptions (54), seventh in touchdowns (5), ninth in targets (82) and 12th in yards (574).
The Chicago coaching staff liked what they saw, and put him in the starting lineup for the final three games of the year. Olsen responded by catching 17 passes for 124 yards and two scores.
With Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler now running the show in the Windy City, look for an increase in targets and some much bigger numbers for Olsen in 2009. Think of Tony Scheffler (when he’s not hurt) with more athleticism and less talent around him to steal targets.
Why We Don’t Like Him:
Olsen is young and has a world of potential, so there isn’t much to not like. Desmond Clark is likely to steal some of his snaps this season, and unless the Bears are able to develop their receiving unit, opposing defenses will be able to key in on Olsen over the middle. Chicago needs a dependable receiver who can step up and stretch the field.
Fantasy Outlook: SLEEPER ALERT
We’re projecting a break-out year for Olsen in 2009. The best part is he comes at a great value. The first tight ends drafted are likely to be Gonzalez, Gates, Witten, Clark, Daniels, and Cooley, meaning Olsen has the potential to fall down the boards and land in your lap at a discounted price.
He’s young, athletic, has excellent hands, and functions more like an outside wide receiver than a tight end. The addition of Cutler will improve the Chicago Bears all the way around, with Olsen being one of the biggest beneficiaries.
If you liked this scouting report, be sure to check out the 2009 NFP Draft Guide!
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh
