Math Wasn’t a Factor in Belichick’s Fourth and Two Equation

Enough already. Give it up.

Put away your calculator, your abacus, and your ZUES computer system. Please, no more freakonomics , or statistics, or probabilities. Save your analytics , algorithms, and algebra equations for baseball season. They don’t fit this situation.

Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth and two on his own 28 wasn’t a glimpse of mathematical genius, or statistical prowess. It wasn’t even mildly intelligent. It was wrong, and there isn’t a single equation that is going to make it right.

The problem with stats and probabilities is they are fun if you’re playing fantasy football, but they’re also about as dry and unemotional as a Belichick press conference.

Probability doesn’t account for momentum swings, crowd noise, Peyton Manning, a blister on Tom Brady’s finger, or a horrendous case of jock-itch. In the world of probabilities, Chris Simms has the same chance of converting a fourth down as Joe Montana.

But somehow, in the last few days football started becoming an intense game of numbers.

Probability says Eli Manning never escapes that sack in Super Bowl XLII, and David Tyree never catches that football with his head. But he did. They both did. That’s what happens with probabilities. Relying on them in make-or-break situations usually gets you sucker-punched in the gut when it matters most.

Besides, do you honestly believe Bill was on the sideline crunching numbers next to the Gatorade cooler?

Tom: I dunno coach, what do you think? We should probably punt, huh?

Bill: Shhhhh Tom, what’s the square root of 82?

It was a poor decision. A piss-poor one.

They happen every Sunday. Hey, it happens to Eric Mangini virtually every time he opens his mouth, and that’s including the buffet line. Unfortunately, this one lost the Patriots the game.

Bill’s been known to toe the line between gutsy and clinically insane on fourth down calls more than once in his career, and to his credit, it’s worked out pretty well so far. On Sunday, he barely glanced at that line before he jumped headfirst into the straight-jacket on the other side.

But for some reason, Belichick “gets a pass” (read the discussion section of the Boston Globe for evidence). A few analysts and an astonishing amount of fans claw desperately to find a shred of support for the decision, and then latch onto it emphatically.

And when in doubt, there’s always the trusty, “He’s got three rings, I’m not going to question it.”

Look, it’s OK to criticize a head coach. Fans do it every day. No one’s going to take his rings away, or even knock off his crown as one of the greatest coaches in the game. But clinging to arbitrary statistics in defense of a clearly illogical decision is simply overdosing on Kool-Aid.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Tom Brady Is Superhuman, Doctor Confirms

So you thought a silly little knee injury would really affect Tom Brady? Well don’t you feel stupid.

Maybe a mere mortal would just roll over and die, but Brady’s no mere mortal, as confirmed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, an orthopedic surgeon specializing in sports medicine at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic in Los Angeles, and the man who performed the most famous knee surgery in the history of mankind. 

Tom Brady’s “astounding physical abilities and his determination to get back on the football field after a serious knee injury” allowed the superhuman QB to recover at a much faster rate, surprising even the medical team that worked with him, ElAttrache told the Los Angeles Times today.

“With regard to his recovery of strength, I’ve never seen anything quite like it,” ElAttrache told The Times. “With an average person, it would have taken probably twice as long to get range of motion and strength back.”

You hear that? Average person.

Here is another too-good-to-be-true quote from ElAttrache:

“Let’s face it, guys that are athletes like him, they’re strung together different. By and large, they follow the same biologic rules as the rest of us. However, they’re able to do things with their neuromuscular control and their strength gains and how they respond to exercise a little bit differently. Within safe limits of how we know how these things heal after an operation like this, I had to take that into consideration.”

Tonight, fathers all over New England are tucking their sons into bed, telling them how their favorite quarterback is genetically constructed like one of the X-Men. And those same sons are thinking about what super powers they would have if their dad was bringing Lombardi trophies back to Boston instead of telling stories.

Perhaps the best part of the article was the moment of affirmation for ElAttrache in January, when he and Brady were having a catch at a park by the ocean just before dusk.

“When I saw the happiness on his face whenever he had that ball in his hands and was able to get out there and move around, I thought, ‘Wow, he’s much further ahead than I even thought he could be,'” ElAttrache said. “That was sort of his gift to me to show me we’re good.”

Sound eerily familiar to a certain scene in Rocky III?

In all seriousness, maybe everyone, including the doc, needs to pump the brakes a little bit.

First of all, ElAttrache is Brady’s “friend and occasional golf partner,” according to the article. Not that there’s anything wrong with a golf buddy, but he’s also the guy’s doctor. Do you think there is a slight conflict of interest there? What’s he going to say, “Yeah, Brady’s knee still looks like a game of Jenga. Personally, I’m very concerned.”

Is it like Belichick and the Patriots to throw caution to the wind, trade Matt Cassel, and plug in a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?

No.

But the truth is, there’s no telling how Brady’s knee will react until week one when he’s under center and there are 11 guys on the opposite side of the ball trying rip his head off. Tossing the ol’ pigskin around is one thing, but the real affirmation will come when he steps on the field.

So let’s at least wait until training camp hits before we start handing him the MVP trophy or deeming him a genetic mutant.

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