Bills Face Jaguars and Rain: Lots Of It

The Bills are looking at playing in a thunderstorm today in Jacksonville, according to weathermen. They are also playing short handed one more time.

On defense, the Bills have ruled out ex-Jaguars Marcus Stroud and Terrance McGee.

On offense, the Bills ruled out WR’s Steve Johnson and James Hardy, newly signed tight end Joe Klopfenstein, and tackle Demetrius Bell. 

So what does all this mean?

It means that if you omit the names of new QB Brian Brohm, kick returner Roscoe Parrish, safeties Donte Whitner and Jairus Byrd, and tackles Jamon Meredith and Jonathan Scott, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams, that all of them are on the active roster today.

The weather could have a tremendous effect on the game. Players with knee or leg problems will have to make sure of their footing and try to avoid heavy cutting for fear of re-injuring themselves.

Jairus Byrd groin may act up, so his interception streak may be in jeopardy. That’s it for now. Let’s Go Buffalo !!

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What’s Up with the Cloak and Dagger Activities with Buffalo Bills?

The Buffalo Bills will be playing a “home game” in Toronto soon, coming up on Thursday night, Dec. 3, against AFC East rival New York Jets. I am beginning to wonder if the Buffalo and Toronto connection is affecting the Buffalo Bills in a new and strange way?

The Toronto Blue Jays have long been known as an organization that puts out a certain amount of mis-information regarding injuries, trade proposals, contract negotiations, etc. to keep people guessing as to what is truly going on with players, agents and front office personnel developments.

Not exactly a straight forward team, with respect to press releases and press conferences. Instead of returning to the keyboard or laptop, you might be better off sitting through reruns of “The X-Files” to remind you that the truth is out there somewhere.

The same type of shenanigans is now starting to become commonplace with the Buffalo Bills. According to a story that was originally released by WIVB-TV, the Bills recently went hard after Jon Gruden and even met with Gruden in a face-to-face meeting.

What is strange about the story is the following :

On Monday this week, ESPN signed Jon Gruden to an extension contract that gave them exclusive rights for his services. Maybe ESPN got word that the Bills were about to sign him and that forced their hand to extend a sweeter deal to Gruden?

On Tuesday, Ralph Wilson fired coach Dick Jauron and offered the job to Perry Fewell. The next thought is, did Wilson offer the job to Fewell then because Gruden had already turned him down?

If that is the case, when exactly did Wilson meet Gruden? Was it before the ESPN deal was announced, and if so, that means that he was trying to find a new coach before he fired the one that he already had.

Or was the meeting with Wilson done sometime after Gruden signed the ESPN extension? If so, then you can pretty much figure that the exclusivity rights that ESPN maintains on Gruden is basically meaningless.

On the surface, companies are always on the lookout for talent and having a successor potentially lined up should they be forced to go in a different direction. But this is the NFL, and there are rules and by-laws that need to be adhered to, such as the Rooney Rule, which could have been violated in this instance.

Researching the franchise further, when you look at the Forbes article on valuations of NFL team franchises, the Bills are valued at roughly $885 million, generating annual revenues of $206 million.

Still think that Ralph can’t afford a top flight football guy to run this company?

So, if Gruden was choice No. 1, that means that the rumored meeting of Wilson with Mike Shanahan would reduce Mike to the second best choice, and then further drop Bill Cowher to the third choice. We are talking about guys that have considerable egos, so this is important to note.

 

Injuries, and Misinformation – More Cloak and Dagger

During the span of the past couple weeks, there have two Bills injuries that have resulted in players going to the IR list, as they were severe enough that it forced the Bills to say that they would be gone for the rest of the year. Those injuries were to tight end Derek Fine and to linebacker Keith Ellison.

In both cases, there was no mention as to the severity of the injury, just that they were out. With Ellison it was assumed that he had tweaked or strained a quad muscle and the stories coming out said he would be out a week or two.

Fast forward to this week, and all of a sudden there is a wire-report that Ellison has been placed on the IR list. What? Having listened to over a hundred of Jauron’s press conferences during his tenure (yeah, I know, I really need to get a life), it always seemed that he was above board and straight with everyone on the injured players.

The first hint that something had changed was with the Derek Fine injury, and now it extends to Fewell with the Ellison situation.

 

Who Is Really Running The Show Now?

When tackles Demetrius Bell and Jamon Meredith went down with knee injuries recently Dick Jauron had promised that reinforcements were coming. Now on the eve of the Jacksonville game, no new offensive lineman have been signed. More disinformation.

When the Bills announced that Ellison went to the I.R. list, that meant 12 Bills had gone the I.R. route this season that is staggering. Consider that the Bills already had lost Kawika Mitchell to the I.R., Posluszny was trying to play and recover from a broken arm.

Untested Marcus Buggs was inserted in and quickly followed by joining them on the I.R. list. It made sense to sign Chris Draft as a veteran to plug in to the group. But now that Ellison has joined the long list, no new linebackers have been signed to the team.

Instead, the Bills solved their abundance of safeties playing well, by shifting Bryan Scott to linebacker. But there is very thin depth now at linebacker, should one of the starters go down.

Nic Harris has missed practices this week due to illness, so you wonder how effective he would be if called upon. So, the Bills brought up Cary Harris from the practice squad, because they need another secondary guy they can convert to linebacker?

If all of the above is not bad enough, Marcus Stroud has been ruled out for this week, and Kyle Williams is struggling to come back from his own knee problems. The Bills are forced to start John McCargo and Spencer Johnson, and if one of them goes down, there is nobody behind them at all.

The longest tenured Buffalo Bills is defensive end Aaron Schobel was perplexed with all of the stuff going on with the team. He had been complaining in the locker room after the Titans game wondering aloud what the direction of the team was.

Aaron, we hear you loud and clear and are wondering the same thing ourselves.

 

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For Ralph Wilson and The Buffalo Bills: Is Mike Shanahan The Answer?

Ralph Wilson recently received his ring from the Hall of Fame for his induction there prior to the start of the 2009 season. That induction was a fitting start for the only owner in Bills history, especially since this was the 50th anniversary season of the Buffalo Bills organization.

When the ring was presented, Ralph was greeted with a loud chorus of boos from the home crowd. Long forgotten was the four straight Super Bowl appearances from 1990 – 1993. It was more like, what have you done for us lately Ralph?

Wilson bit the bullet earlier this week by dropping the ax on Dick Jauron and swallowing the remaining year and a half left on Dick Jauron’s pro-rated six million dollar contract. Throwing that much money away is not something Ralph is very fond of doing.

Heck, who would be? You know he hated to do it, but he was faced with such a growing level of discontentment from the fan base that he had to do something. I just wonder if his doctor advised him to make the move for health reasons?

Various sources in Buffalo have leaked word that people like Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas have been talking to Ralph, and the word that is now circulating around the city is that Wilson will step up and pay what it takes to bring in a top flight football man to take over and run the team. Hallelujah!

By “run the team”, I mean someone that has a proven plan, that knows what it takes to build a winner step by step, and have the conviction to ignore the complaints and do whatever is necessary to put all of the building blocks in place.

That might mean one more year without making the playoffs, but there had better be some improvement on offense, because you really can’t be any worse than the product we saw this year, can you?

Now I realize that this is as close to a collective Christmas present that the city of Buffalo can be wishing and hoping for, outside of our own personal and individual wishes like having a new job, new snow blower, Stanley Cup trophy and a new chicken wing slow cooker.

If this is true, Wilson’s decision is smart for a number of reasons. Only the Lord knows how much time Ralph has left on this planet. But as sad as it is to admit, when you are already in to your 90’s, the clock is ticking louder and a little faster than you wish.

His family doesn’t seem to want to take on the challenges of running the team. So Wilson needs to put the pieces in place if he ultimately has to sell the club. You know for his fifty year investment he will want to command top dollar. So, getting a top flight guy to run the operation makes tremendous sense/cents.

Ralph may not be that crazy after all. Or, perhaps crazy like a fox?

 

The million dollar question is, who is that right guy to run it?

If reports on the sports wires are accurate, ex-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan is appearing to be the early front runner, as the word is that Wilson will fly him in for a visit next week. From that point forward, if Ralph likes what he hears, and tells Shanahan, okay this it is now your show to run, then the sky is the limit.

You would like to think that Shanahan would want to get as much exposure to the current team as he could with whatever is left of the season to evaluate what is here.

He will want to take advantage of the final month to put together the necessary scouting personnel to start evaluating the college players coming out before their regular season ends and before all of the bowl games have come and gone.

I imagine that Shanahan will want to dig in and find out how badly the current players are hurt that are on I-R now, and what the prognosis is for their return in 2010. There truly is quite a lot of medical inspection and kicking the tires that needs to be done, and not all that much time to play with.

But if Ralph is unwilling to turn over the keys to the penthouse now, or in the next week or two, then we are going to need to back this thing up and start over very slowly from the beginning.

Why Shanahan?

Shanahan has that winner tag written all over him. He has won two Super Bowls. He wears that permanent scowl like Bill Cowher does, and you might get an occasional smile like Cowher, but they are few and far between. Especially when prowling the sidelines on game day.

In fact, I tried to find a picture for this story that showed Shanahan smiling, and couldn’t find one. For that matter, Jauron didn’t smile either, but that is a different story altogether.

Shanahan is a master at creating a solid running game, and that will play very well in the elements in Buffalo. The Bills have been so horrible on the offensive side of the ball for the past six years, that the fans would relish a true ground and pound attack that is consistent with the mentality of the work ethic of the city itself.

You clearly have some pieces in place already from the core of Lynch, Jackson, Wood, Levitre, Evans and Nelson having a number of years left ahead of them. I suspect that a veteran quarterback would be brought in to run the offense, while they groom the future quarterback that will be selected in the upcoming draft.

You know that the writing is already on the wall for Trent Edwards. If Perry Fewell doesn’t have the confidence in him to be his starter, and he has been watching Edwards in practice regularly for the past two and a half years, that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Sure, maybe Fitzpatrick gets banged up and Edwards comes out firing, realizing that his career may have already peaked. You never know what finally gets a fire lit under someone, or what causes the light bulb to finally turn on. Clearly, that never happened with Dick Jauron at the helm, and he had always believed in Trent from early on.

 

Timing issues

With so many teams in the NFL playing really bad football, I don’t know that Wilson will have the luxury of sitting and stewing on his big decision. Each successive week that comes and goes, we are getting closer to the end of the season, and the best coaches and brightest football minds will be courted and swept up by other organizations looking to right their ship.

What finally made Wilson decide to can Jauron? Ralph doesn’t make a bunch of snap decisions, and that is probably a reflection on his level of patience, age and wisdom. But this situation will probably call for him to make a faster decision then he is normally comfortable making.

You would like to think that Wilson could take his time and bring in five, six, or seven people with great credentials as there are clearly a number of qualified people that are not coaching right now. The potential list of choices is growing every time I visit the Bills home page on The Bleachers Report, and read all of the new articles.

But if Wilson really wants to do this right, I think he will need to be bold, and if he sees and hears the pitch of a winner in his gut, to have the courage and fortitude to trust his instincts and to do the right thing and act.

He took the right first step earlier this week. Will he follow that up, or will he get overwhelmed in trying to figure out how to best proceed from here?

We can only hope. Oh, to be a fly on the wall in a certain office in Detroit over the next few weeks…..

 

 

 

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Bills Promote Defense Coordinator Perry Fewell to Interim Head Coach

Ralph Wilson was pretty busy on Tuesday. The Bills owner fired Dick Jauron earlier in the day and then decided to promote defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to the interim head coach role for the remainder of the season.

The last time the Bills fired a coach in the middle of the season, 1986, they hired some guy by the name of Marv Levy to take over as the interim head coach. I wonder if the Bills can find lightning in a bottle for the second time?

In a team statement, Ralph Wilson said of Fewell: “Perry Fewell will be our interim head coach…Perry has done a great job with our defense and has demonstrated excellent leadership skills as defensive coordinator. Our players and staff have a lot of confidence in him and that is important as we look forward to these next seven games.”

Wilson was trying to build up the new head coach, but I would question his use of the term “great job with our defense” when trying to describe what Fewell has done this year.

The positives would be that the Bills lead the NFL in interceptions and lead the AFC in creating turnovers. The minuses would be that the Bills are last in rush defense, and are on the field for more plays than any other team.

Fewell’s defense has fallen apart in two consecutive games in the fourth quarter when the game was on the line. Instead of generating three-and-out drives to give the ball back to the offense, Buffalo let Tennessee convert on at least six different instances of third-and-longer-than-six.

Granted, there have been a host of injuries to Fewell’s unit. The extensive list of Bills starters (and reserves) that have missed time this year due to injuries include:

Defensive Line: Aaron Schobel and Kyle Williams

Linebacker: Paul Posluszny, Keith Ellison, Kawika Mitchell, and Marcus Buggs

Secondary: Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Terrance McGee, and Bryan Scott.

 

Why Did The Bills Promote Fewell Instead of Bobby April?

Earlier today I had speculated that Bobby April would get the nod for interim head coach. In retrospect, Bobby April’s world has been focused on special teams and special teams players.

I am not privy to the information necessary to understanding how many of the other coaches’ meetings he had been regularly attending, to truly have a strong feel for what was going on with the offense and defense. He did carry the “assistant head coach” title, but at the end of the day, that did not seem to matter very much when it was time for Wilson to name a successor to Jauron. 

As for being qualified, Fewell has spent 12 years coaching in the NFL, primarily as a secondary coach. He was promoted to the defensive coordinator role by Dick Jauron, so he probably owes a debt of gratitude to Jauron for elevating him to the status of coordinator. Serving as coordinator for that long, he clearly is qualified for the interim job now.

 

Did the Bills Really Need Another Defensive Mind to Serve as Head Coach?

With all of the problems that the Bills have faced with their offense this season, one has to wonder if Fewell will be able to give enough insight and guidance to oversee an offense that has been struggling for six years running.

Dick Jauron was always a defensive coach, just as Perry Fewell has always been. Fewell never coached any area of the offense previously in his coaching career. Is this a recipe for more offensive disasters ahead as the Bills close out the 2009 season?

 

Who Should Take Over as Defensive Coordinator Now that Fewell Was Promoted?

My wish for the new defensive coordinator would be Bob Sanders. Sanders had previously served as the defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers from 2006-2008. Those three years of on the job experience, and the pressure that he was able to generate from the defensive line, are examples of why I feel he makes the most sense to be promoted as well.

 

What Happens Now for the Bills Over the Final Seven Games?

The Bills have a chance to play spoiler as they are all but eliminated from playoff consideration. They will close out with three tough games against New England, Atlanta, and Indianapolis.

The players that show up for those three games will be giving themselves a leg up on their competition in 2010. We have no way of knowing if Fewell will continue to be the head coach after this season ends, but I am assuming that the Bills will go out and bring in a head coach with a strong track record.

That new coach will have the game films from the last month to look at and evaluate which players truly want to be Buffalo Bills, and which were going through the motions. 

If I was able to spend any time with Perry Fewell, I would encourage him to give the younger Bills players a chance to prove what they can do. Specifically, I want to see more of Steve Johnson, Aaron Maybin, James Hardy, Nic Harris, and Shawn Nelson.

I would also like to see Roscoe Parrish return to kickoff and/or punt return duties and give him another chance to contribute to the team. He is still under contract, so give teams a chance to see if he is still valuable enough to keep or trade for something of value.

Plus, activating Roscoe frees up Freddy Jackson to focus on offense, where his skills are needed on every down, not just third down.

I would like to see the offense take off the Mickey Mouse gloves and do things out of the norm. You know, things like take a random drive in the middle of the first or third quarter and run a hurry up shotgun attack that the other team would not expect.

I would like to see more of the Freddy Jackson and Marshawn Lynch combination in the backfield at the same time. I am also open to seeing more use of the Wild Turkey offense (my favorite name for the Bills’ version of the wildcat offense) with Freddy Jackson taking snaps directly.

As for Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, use the weapons at your disposal. You have talented players like Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, and Josh Reed to throw to. You have younger potential talents in Steve Johnson, Shawn Nelson, and James Hardy that you can help to develop and bring along. Use them, that is why you have so many receivers on the roster.

I am open to pulling a quarterback if he is not doing the job. Start Trent or start Ryan, it doesn’t matter. If you are at the helm for a couple of three-and-out drives, you can expect to have your butt sitting squarely on the bench.

If you produce, you play. If you stink up the joint, you will have time to reflect on why you are playing so poorly.

Well, that is my two cents. Wishing Perry Fewell nothing but the best and hope that his interim gig turns out to be one of highlights and rewards, kind of like his predecessor Marv Levy’s was.

What do you want to see the Bills do over the final seven games?

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Dick Jauron Fired By The Bills: Who Will Be Named His Successor?

Ralph Wilson finally had enough. He had seen the big billboard asking for Head Coach Dick Jauron to be fired. He had heard the chants in the stands calling for: “Dick Must Go”.

We will never know, but maybe the final straw was seeing Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams flip off the Bills after Sunday’s loss, and Ralph thought to himself, I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore”.

Wilson fired Jauron today in a mid-week move. That is rare. Wilson is known to be cheap when it comes to paying coaches, much less firing one, and then needing to pay for two head coaches while he honors the remainder of Jauron’s salary.

Ralph is probably trying to figure out if there is a way that he can get the NFL to funnel some of the quarter million dollar fine they collect from Bud Adams’ gesture to help pay for the new coach.

So Who Will The Bills Name as New Interim Head Coach?

There are a myriad of possibilities, but realistically I only see one option happening. Bobby April. He has been the Assistant Head Coach for the team already. He has fire and passion, two things Dick Jauron had trouble demonstrating.

Bobby April knows the team, knows the players and knows the organization top to bottom. He has a loyal following of Bills fans that have been asking him to take over the team for a long time.

Another realistic choice is Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell. He also knows the organization and the players, but lacks the “Assistant Head Coach” title that April has.

Is April or Fewell the best choice? There are a number of more high profile choices available, but they would cost Wilson a lot more than April. Those other options range from John Gruden, Marty Schottenheimer, Tony Dungy, Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, Dennis Green, Jim Stassel, and Jim Haslett.

There are other names too, but how long of a laundry list do you want to kick around?

Out of the prior head coaches that are available I would love to see Tony Dungy come in and take on whatever job title/role he wants. My second choice after that would be Jon Gruden, followed by Jim Haslett (an ex-Buffalo Bill player).

Tony Dungy is somebody that everybody respects and is as solid a football mind as you can find. If Michael Vick will listen to him and do what Dungy tells him, don’t you think that all of the various egos and personalities on the Bills (T.O. included) would fall in line with whatever Dungy is preaching?

If Bobby April is hired:

April will bring some immediate calm and restoring order for the organization something they need. His tenure could only last until the end of the season, when the Bills brain-trust determines that they need a head coach with experience and a track record of winning.

This also means that he is a marked man if the Bills do go outside the organization in the off-season, and if he is the interim head coach, he will be probably relieved of his duties by whoever takes over.

If the Bills name anyone from outside the organization:

If that happens, then it is not an interim tag, so expect a longer term contract for Mr. X. With that scenario, the coach will then be in a “What-do-we-have-to-work-with-here mode”?

That is a situation where everyone will see playing time, the wins and losses are irrelevant, and jobs are up in the air. Nobody is safe and big names could be dropped from the roster.

For the immediate future, the Bills for all intensive purposes have already been eliminated from the playoffs. The fans wanted change, and so now they have it.

The final seven games may not be very pretty, but they could be more entertaining. Don’t be surprised if you see the Bills play out their schedule with more passion and fire.

I would also expect to see more imagination exhibited on offense, as the new coach will take off the training gloves and remove the “vanilla-Mickey-Mouse” tag from the offense.

Regarding immediate coaches decisions, expect to see both Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick play to determine if either of them will still be starting in 2010 until whatever quarterback they draft is deemed ready to take over the reigns.

Some player’s attitudes will have to change quickly. T.O. in particular may either welcome the new coach with open arms, or will be shown the door if his attitude or body language shows that he really doesn’t want to be there.

Stay tuned, as this promises to be an interesting week. What are your ideas for who the next head coach would or should be?

 

 

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Mid-Season Report Card: Buffalo Bills 2009 Draft Class

This slide show is a run down of how well the Buffalo Bills rookies from the draft class of 2009 have performed so far at the halfway mark. With eight games down and eight games to go, the rookies still have half a season left to impact how their rookie season will be finally viewed.

Pitcured is Jairus Byrd, doing what he does best, being in the right spot at the right time, making a play on the ball and intercepting passes.

Begin Slideshow

You Need a New Program For This Week’s Buffalo Bills Starting Lineup

The last time the Buffalo Bills took the field was two weeks ago, against the Houston Texans, in week eight. During the two weeks they had off, it is uncanny how many changes their starting lineup will have undergone by the time they square off with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

After you see all the changes due to take place, you have to wonder how much stock Jeff Fisher could put in any of the game film they watched from the Texans’ game. The Bills are looking at as many as eight potential changes in the starting lineup from one game to the next, which is roughly one third of their starters.

This is not all set in stone yet, because there are still a number of Bills that are listed in questionable and may not be decided until game time. Here is what we do know so far:

 

Changes on Offense

Starting quarterback Trent Edwards is back as he has been medically cleared to resume play after the concussion he suffered against the Jets. He will relieve Ryan Fitzpatrick of his duties.

Starting tackle Jonathan Scott is back from his injury to return to the starting lineup. His replacement Jamon Meredith is recovering from his own knee sprain and may be available to play as well.

Starting fullback Corey McIntyre is presumed healthy enough to return to the lineup. For plays involving max pass protection, that is a good thing because Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson have done their fair share of whiffing on blitzing linebackers.

Starting wide receiver Terrell Owens may or may not play due to a strained hip. He is one of the question marks.

If Owens can’t go, it will be probably be Steve Johnson or the recently activated James Hardy (off of the PUP list) that would see more reps. Josh Reed would move to T.O.’s starting spot. 

T.O. missed two practices this week, so his availability may boil down to a game time decision.

Hopefully there are no couches in his hotel room, as falling asleep on a couch is what initially caused his hip to act up. If he plays and does not come up with any catches against a suspect Titan’s secondary, it will be very difficult for me to not call T.O. “Couch Potato” for the rest of the season.

Roscoe Parrish, who could have been brought back to take T.O.’s place, has his own new injury, that being a twisted knee in practice this week. He had been listed as the emergency QB for the Bills while Edwards was out, so we don’t need to worry about that now.

Gibran Hamdan will probably be inactive as the emergency QB, since the Bills will need his active roster spot for either McIntyre or Hardy.

Although there hasn’t been talk of him starting, rookie tight end Shawn Nelson is expected to return, and should be one more weapon that Trent Edwards needs to re- introduce himself to, along with Hardy and Johnson.

I would like to see Nelson take over for starter Derek Fine, but Nelson needs to show more complete play, from catching passes to blocking. It would also help if he could avoid any more injuries.

 

Now let’s move over to the defense, for the changes there.

Bryan Scott is now healthy enough to return, but not at his normal safety spot. He will instead be taking over at linebacker for injured Keith Ellison. Expect to see some reps for Nic Harris there as well, as the Bills get a chance to see what the rookie from Oklahoma can do.

Terrence McGee had his knee scoped in the past ten days, and is not ready to return. So Reggie Corner will be plugged in to, appropriately enough, the corner. Ashton Youboty will see some time on the corner as well in McGee’s absence.

There are at least two more question marks that could have an impact on the starting lineup on defense.

Aaron Schobel has a sore groin and the Bills can’t say if he is starting or not. If he can’t go, then Ryan Denney gets the call to start, with more reps for Aaron Maybin as well.

Donte Whitner is another question mark, and could return to safety, which would bump George Wilson back to the bench. That is a little hard to believe, since Wilson has been the Bills leading tackler recently and had come up with an interception in two of the prior three games.

Don’t be surprised if the Bills come out with some three safety looks, as Whitner, Byrd, and Wilson can be used to help shore up the run defense. If that occurs, and the Bills still have Bryan Scott in at linebacker, then in reality you have a four-safety look, taking Chris Draft out of the game.

Kyle Williams is still expected to be out so no changes there. It is still going to be Spencer Johnson filling in for him, with John McCargo getting some time there too.

AFC Defensive Rookie of the month for October, Jairus Byrd, is probable to play. The Bills rookie safety whiz-kid recently had his off-season hernia surgery checked out, which is something that has been bothering him recently.

So, there you have the run down. A bunch of moving parts. Will there be some blown assignments and coverages? I am confident there will be, as you have to expect that to happen with guys being gone for so long.

The thing I wonder about is how healthy these returning players truly are. They will need to be able to run like the wind if they want to stop Chris Johnson. The Bills will miss Terrance McGee this week, as he has been able to run guys down all season long, and this is a game where his speed will be missed.

Finally, Trent Edwards needs to get acclimated to the offense again, and they to him. The new wrinkles installed during the bye week will have an impact as well, so you need to keep watching to see who is doing what. Throw out that old program already.

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How Well Do Teams Perform Coming Out Of Their Bye Week?

How well do teams play coming out of their bye week? That might be something you need to know if you are Tony Soprano and planning to wager five large on the Jets. At those stakes, you are looking for every edge you can find.

Of course, if he only knew that Mark Sanchez was getting ready to throw up five interceptions against the Buffalo Bills’ defense, he could have stayed home and had a heart-to-heart discussion with his son. Or he could have done some paperwork at the club…. or not.

This article will take a closer look at how well NFL teams do coming out of their bye week in the schedule. So far in the 2009 season, 24 teams have played following their bye week.

Out of those 24 teams, the record stands at 14-10, which is a .580 winning percentage. Not terrible, but not something that makes you sit up in your chair and go “Wow” either.

Twenty times so far a team came off of their bye week to face a team that has just played the week before. In those 20 games, the record was 12-8, which is slightly better winning percentage of .600.

The NFL schedule maker decided to pull a fast one this year as he scheduled two games in Week Eight, Denver at Baltimore, and Jacksonville at Tennessee, where both teams were coming off of their bye week. Talk about overkill, or overly prepared!

Schedule maker was probably laughing to himself like crazy when he conceived of that brain storm.

What happens when teams are coming off of the bye week and playing at home, you ask? Record then jumps to 11-3, which is a winning percentage of .780. Now that is some heady stuff. Are you listening, Tony?

Coming off the bye, and packing up your suitcase for a road trip results in a 3-7 record, not exactly a positive trend. It is still hard to win on the road. Doesn’t matter if you are rested or not.

We still have eight teams left to play a game after their bye week to wrap up this year’s results.

Before we move on, I want to come back and talk a little more about that shifty NFL schedule maker some more. It is now time to ask this question: Is there a benefit to having an extra week of practice when you play in the NFL?

Let’s take that question one step further. If the answer to the question was yes, we can then also assume that it would be a detriment to the opponent when you are facing a team that hasn’t played in two weeks.

Get out your pen and paper, and look at the 2009 NFL schedule.

All of these teams had the misfortune of facing a NFL team coming off their bye week three times this season: Tennessee, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, and Atlanta.

Facing two opponents after their bye week this year: Houston, Detroit, St. Louis, and New Orleans.

Facing one opponent after a two week respit: San Francisco, Tampa Bay, New York Giants, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England, Washington, Dallas, and Miami.

Now here is the for shame list, facing no teams that were coming off of their bye week: Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Minnesota, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Carolina, New York Jets, Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle, Chicago, San Diego, and Oakland.

Makes you wonder why the schedule maker couldn’t find a way to balance this out a little better, doesn’t it?

One rather odd piece of bye week trivia was that under Dick Jauron, the Buffalo Bills have won all three games following their bye. Based on his overall record, I am guessing that Jauron wished there were more byes in the schedule.

His wounded defense could use the rest, and his won/loss record could take some positive bumps. If he figures out a way to contain Chris Johnson and the Bills can beat Tennessee, I figure that coaches will be soliciting him for advice next year on how to prepare after the bye week.

Chances are Jauron will be seeking another job next season as things stand now. Any graduate of an Ivy League school should be well qualified to take on consulting gigs, right?

 

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Bills and Titans: Fine Tuning The Week 10 Matchup

Since I ran an article two days ago entitled: Bills-Titans: Week 10 Preview and Keys To The Game came out, there have been some further developments regarding both teams that meant an update was warranted.

For those that like to hear a little trivia, or history, it is noteworthy that in the three prior years under Dick Jauron, the Bills have won all three years coming out of their bye week. Will they make it four straight on Sunday?

What has happened this week regarding the Bills :

1) The Bills have named Trent Edwards as the starting QB for Sunday. No real big surprise there, but at least everyone on the team knows what is going on now. It also gives Trent a few days to re-establish some chemistry with his wide receivers and allow the linemen to get re-adjusted to his cadence count and pace.

2) Terrell Owens—after practice Monday, Terrell complained of a sore hip and wound up sitting out today’s practice due to the hip injury. If T.O. is unable to go, then expect the Bills to activate either James Hardy or Roscoe Parrish to take his roster spot for the game.

If this means that Trent can’t re-establish chemistry with T.O. due to missing practice, then he will be able to give a plausible reason in his post game conference.

Regarding the receivers needed to replace Terrell’s production, (I know, some of you are snickering after reading that line), the Bills will need some of these guys to step up: Lee Evans, Josh Reed, Steve Johnson, Shawn Nelson and either Parrish or Hardy.

3) It is becoming more and more clear that the Bills are giving ample practice reps to Bryan Scott at linebacker, so expect Scott to start there this week with Paul Posluszny and Chris Draft. Bills will probably keep Scott there until Ellison returns.

4) Assuming that Jairus Byrd is deemed healthy, the Bills can start Byrd and George Wilson and ease Donte Whitner back in to game action in a three safety look, assuming the Bills’ medical staff clears Whitner for action.

5) The Bills decided today to activate James Hardy off of the P.U.P. list and to make room for him waived running back Xavier Odom. Odom was a 6th round pick from the 2008 draft, and has seen limited action this year. Possibly Omon will wind up landing on the Bills practice squad, since he has eligibility left to do that.

6) There are a number of players that are still not practicing fully, so we are still left to guess how many of this group will be playing on Sunday:

Offense question marks : WR Terrell Owens, FB Corey McIntyre, and Tackle Jamon Meredith.

Defensive question marks : LB: Keith Ellison, CB Terrence McGee, DE Aaron Schobel, DT Kyle Williams, FS Jairus Byrd, and S Donte Whitner.

All of these big names on defense means that the Bills will have to do some mixing and matching. Since Tennessee features a speed running back in Chris Johnson, expect the Bills to go with their fastest replacements in an attempt to slow Johnson down.

What has happened this week regarding the Titans :

DE Jevon Kearse had been inactive last week against the 49’ers. However, he did fully participate in practice today, which means he very well could start on Sunday. The Bills do have Jonathan Scott back, so either he or Demetrius Bell would wind up trying to slow Kearse down.

It seems that Tennessee is pretty much prepared to run Chris Brown the entire game, and expect LenDale White to see little action. Brown could very well be looking at another 200 yards in rushing, unless the Bills rushing defense can find a way to stop him.

Tennessee Injuries Update: (following players were not fully practicing today):

Offense question marks : WR Justin Gage and  RB LenDale White

Defensive question marks : CB: Cortland Finnegan, DT David Stewart, LB David Thornton.

From the above group, there are four Titans’ starters that might not be going, namely; Finnegan, Gage, Stewart and Thornton.

Tennessee has seen a complete turn-around from the team that finished last year at 13-3. Hard to imagine that a team that good, which was returning 20 out of 22 starters from last year, could come out of the gate 0-6. Welcome to the NFL.

The earlier article this week discussed that the Titans were pretty weak in giving up yards in the passing game. After their bye in week seven, they came out of the bye  healthier, and the results have showed.

Titans allowed only 250 yards in the air against 49’ers, and only 113 against Jacksonville. So, those expecting to see a big day for Edwards in the air, may need to think twice.

It will be interesting to see which players are able to give it a go on Sunday, as that will have a big say in the outcome. There are still five or six potential Bills defensive starters that may be sitting out the game, and that would be extremely difficult to overcome.

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Bills-Titans: Week 10 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (3-5) travel to the Tennessee Titans (2-6) in a game that involves two teams with a losing record and defenses that rank dead last in a number of categories.

The Bills enter the week 10 contest coming off of their bye week. As a result, the team is rested and is a little bit healthier than they have been in quite some time. Look at the list of Bills who are expected to return: 

 

QB Trent Edwards

returning from his concussion and is expected to start

 

Tackle Jonathan Scott

returning from his ankle sprain and is expected to start

 

Tight End Shawn Nelson

returning from migraine headaches and is expected to play

 

Safety Bryan Scott

returning from his ankle sprain and is expected to play. He could either return to safety or possibly at linebacker, where he has been taking reps in practice.

 

Satety Donte Whitner, linebacker Keith Ellison, safety Jairus Byrd, cornerback Terrence McGee, defensive tackle Kyle Williams, and defensive end Aaron Schobel, were all suffering from injuries and there is no word as of now how many players from this group are playing for sure on Sunday.

You figure that Jamon Meredith’s knee sprain will be keeping him out, so Jonathan Scott’s return is timely indeed.

Bills fans have been treated to an amazing stretch by rookie safety Jairus Byrd, who has now had at least one interception in the last four consecutive games. Byrd has at least two picks in three straight games.

He has seven total interceptions in the last four games and under normal circumstances would think that facing an inexperienced quarterback in Vince Young would pad his total.

However, Young is not putting the ball up in the air very often, as was the case last Sunday, when he went 12-of-19 for 172 yards against the San Francisco 49ers.

Byrd went to visit a specialist in Philadelphia during the bye week regarding his July hernia surgery, so we will know more about his availability as the week unfolds.

 

These teams have some striking similarities

For starters, both teams have won two of their last three games, so the victor will see that trend rise to three wins out of the last four. The two wins were created when each team made a quarterback change.

The Titans replaced Kerry Collins with Vince Young (performance issues) while the Bills replaced Trent Edwards with Ryan Fitzpatrick (due to injury).

Since both teams have been having trouble this year at the quarterback position, the loser of this game will take another step towards a favorable draft slot in the upcoming 2010 draft.

It would not be a surprise if both teams are looking for quarterback help with their first selection in the draft.

You would like to see your quarterback have a passer rating of at least 100. Look at the current rating of the four quarterbacks involved in this game: Young (83), Edwards (73), Collins (62) and Fitzpatrick (57). As we said, both teams need QB help.

Tennessee’s defense is last in number of points allowed per game (29.8) and in average passing yards allowed per game (278).

Titans defense ranks next to last in yards allowed per game (390); only Cleveland’s defense gives up more (409).

The Bills defense on the other hand is last in the NFL in average rushing yardage allowed per game (173). The Bills defense leads the NFL in tackles at 399, but that also means that the defense has been on the field for more plays than any other unit in the league.

I believe that the Bills also lead the league in defensive starters injured and in games missed due to injury, but I have not been able to confirm that as fact.

If the Bills defense wants to be off the field more, they need to start forcing more three-and-out drives. That would be a good way to start the second half of the season.

What are the keys to this week’s game? 

 

WHEN TENNESSEE HAS THE BALL

In the past 40 years of the NFL, care to take a guess as to who has the highest average per carry after nine weeks of the season? Time is up.

The answer is: Titans starting running back Chris Johnson. Johnson is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and that is the best average for nine weeks since 1970; pretty impressive.

Johnson said coming in to the year that his goal was to be a two thousand yard rusher. Ex-Bills O.J. Simpson was the first rusher to hit that level, but he won’t be the last.

What does Johnson need to do to accomplish his goal? So far, Johnson has gained 959 yards after eight games, so he is almost half way there. 

Johnson will need to pick up the pace slightly in the second half of the season and you know he has to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing a Bills rushing defense that gives up large chunks of yards on the ground.

Last week, Johnson racked up 135 yards against the 49’ers and registered two TD’s. The week before that, Johnson rushed for 228 yards against Jacksonville and again had two rushing TD’s.

The Bills need to be concerned about every running back they face. In the last game against Houston, back up Ryan Moats entered the game due to Steve Slaton fumbling issues.

Moats, who had accomplished very little all year, went on to rush for three TD’s against the Bills, along with setting a career high in rushing yardage gained.

Likewise, the backup to Johnson is LenDale White, he of the 15 rushing TD’s last year. 2009 is a different story as White only has one rushing TD this year. Last Sunday, White gained three yards in four carries. Ugh. However, if something happens to Johnson during the game, you can expect to see White explode.

The Bills will need to force Tennessee to throw the ball and that means they will have to find a way to put the Titans in passing situations by putting eight guys up in the box and trying to stuff Johnson on first- and second-down runs. If that happens, you would like the Bills’ chances at picking off some more passes.

The Bills pass defense ranks tied for second in the NFL with Philadelphia; both teams have 15 interceptions so far. New Orleans leads the league with 16 picks.

One of the keys to Tennessee’s two game winning streak, is that Vince Young has taken over at quarterback and done a better job of taking care of the football.

Tennessee has not turned over the ball once during these two wins, while their defense has created six turnovers in the two wins.

That was not the case when Collins was the QB. He had eight interceptions and only five TD’s and as a starter he went 0-6, leading to the decision to bench him.

We need to talk about one other factor and with Vince Young that is his mobility. He has not been running the ball much, but did have a draw he ran in for a TD against the 49ers.

Young’s scrambling ability was noteworthy in college, but has been less of a factor in the pro game. The Bills will still need to make sure they have someone matched up on Young to prevent him from taking off with the ball.

If Keith Ellison, the Bills’ leading tackler, is not able to play, the Bills will have to go with either Bryan Scott switching over to linebacker, or go with rookie Nic Harris. Not ideal, but that is how banged up the Bills defense has been.

 

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL

This will be an interesting game for the Bills on many levels. For Trent Edwards, it will be his first start since suffering his second concussion against the New York Jets back in week six.

He watched Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball to the wide receivers more often than Edwards did, but with mixed results.

Will Edwards follow Fitzpatrick’s lead and throw the ball down the field, or will he be gun shy his first time out for fear of getting a third concussion?

You would like to think that if he is medically cleared, he will be anxious to get out there and prove he can lead the team. Maybe he gained some insight while watching on the sidelines.

The Bills had ditched the no-huddle offense coming in to the Jets game and Edwards began that contest 5-for-5 and was moving the Bills offense down the field when the concussion occurred.

Was that a sign of things to come? That is why this game will be so interesting to see where Edwards is regarding his leadership, performance, and confidence in his ability to throw the ball down the field.

It helps that he is facing a defense that is porous as Tennessee’s is. But before Bills fans get too cocky, remember that only Cleveland’s defense gives up more yardage than the Titans, and when Trent faced the Browns, he was only able to lead the team to three points for the entire game, at home no less. This one is on the road.

If Terrell Owens was going to have a game that allows him to break the century mark for the first time as a Bill, you would like his chances in this one.

The 278 yards a game in the air that the Titans give up is a bunch, so that would mean Edwards should have a weaker secondary to pick apart.

The Titans have registered 19 sacks so far, compared to 17 sacks for the Bills. The Titans will be facing the Bills’ young offensive line, so that will be interesting to see how they perform.

Jevon Kearse was inactive last Sunday and Albert Haynesworth now plays for Washington, so at least the offensive line catches a break in not facing those two sack masters.

Also of interest this week, will be what new wrinkles have the Bills offense devised due to having their bye week and two full weeks to prepare for this game. The Bills in general, and Dick Jauron in particular, have been criticized for running an offensive scheme that has been too easy to prepare for.

The offense converts on third down only 26 percent of the time, which is pretty anemic. Analyzing third down calls and trying to determine how to break those trends, is something I am sure was addressed at One Bills Drive during the bye week.

Are the Bills able to install some new looks or new plays that Tennessee has not seen in game film? Will Freddy Jackson be allowed to be the third-down back again and see more touches as he did when Marshawn Lynch was out due to his three-game suspension?

The Bills’ offense has led the league in three-and-out drives. That has to change, so if the Bills are able to move the chains with longer drives, they will keep their defense fresher and stand a better chance to come away with a win.

 

Bills Bits

Shawn Nelson’s migraine headaches turn out to be something he has suffered from for a long time. The headaches are hereditary in nature.

It is not known how public that information is or was, but it may help to understand why he was still available in the fourth round of the draft. A guy that suffers from migraine headaches,and plays football for a living, can’t be a good thing for the headaches.  

The Bills need Nelson to step up; he has only accounted for six catches all year long. When he scored on opening night against the Patriots, we all envisioned big things for the rookie.

Speaking of rookies that need to step up, I wonder how much time the Bills spent with Aaron Maybin during this two week break?

Since he held out of training camp until his big contract was finalized, Maybin has been largely ineffective so far. It would be nice to see him making some plays and demonstrating why he was worthy of the Bills’ first draft selection.

James Hardy was due to be activated off of the P.U.P. list this week. No word yet if that is official, or what the corresponding move will be as to who the Bills cut to make room for him. Is this the end of the road for Roscoe Parrish? Just wondering….

Finally, Tony Dungy came out with a blurb that mentioned the Bills as a possible future destination for Michael Vick. The Bills have long prided themselves on finding players from small colleges and drafting players with strong personal character.

Off the field issues recently by players like Marshawn Lynch and Donte Whitner, demonstrates that the people in charge of evaluating players have missed the mark on character assessment.

Adding a questionable character like Vick is a step in the wrong direction.

Sure, Vick is saying the right things, but how sincere is he? If that was what he was required to do to save his career and get out of debt, why wouldn’t he show a different attitude? But is that really him?

What do you think?

 

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