Fantasy Football: A Wining Draft Strategy For 2009

Hey guys, hope your all heavily engaged in fantasy baseball right now like I am.  Fantasy Sports are great; they keep us following the sport to a tee and they allow you to become an expert on players within the league. 

Anyways, this is fantasy football that we are talking about, (specifically draft strategy), so as that captain on Spike’s tv show “MXC” would say, “Get it on”.

Last year, we saw a star quarterback go down before taking one snap (Tom Brady), a fantasy legend show some age in the wake of a “down” year (Ladanian Tomlinson), and an unlikely running back lead all backs in fantasy points (DeAngelo Williams).  What we also saw (as we do every year) was many injuries, primarily to running backs, the position that arguably takes the most pounding year after year—swiftly prompting teams to turn to a running back by committee approach.

So, what does all this information mean?

For one, the market for top tier running backs has been rung dangerously thin.  In my opinion, the only truly safe first round type talent remaining in the RB pool includes: 

Adrian Peterson, Michael “The Burner” Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Matt Forte. 

That’s it. 

“Where’s Steven Jackson,” you say. Well I say where’s he been the past two years?  And Chris Johnson, well unfortunately he is stuck in that dreaded acronym “rbbc” thus failing to meet the safe aspect from these prerequisites listed.

Again, what does this information all mean?

It means that we need to approach our drafts with a different mind-set, a different approach. 

Now, I’m not going to babble on about the so called “psychological” aspect of throwing your opponents off, or of having a tiering sheet, (although there is only good that can come out of that), but I will talk about what positions to target, and where at (specifically what rounds).

Let’s get the basics out of the way first shall we? 

Always draft your kicker with your last pick.  NO exceptions, at all. 

Trying to predict who the top kicker will be at year’s end is akin to winning the lotto, it ain’t gonna happen.  Defenses are a tad easier to predict, just because they actually have an outlook at the beginning of the season, where as next to no information is available about kickers at that same time.

Now, this is the meat and potatoes of what we are all reading this article for, the specifics, the goods.  In the first round, picks 1-6, (I’ll include Johnson here, disregarding my early comment of him), you’ll want to go RB.  They are by far the most consistent, strongest part of your fantasy team.  I’ve tried to field teams without a star running back, trying to dance around the notion of needing one or two great backs to win, not too surprisingly, it didn’t work out to well.

First Round:  Get one of the top six running backs if you can, if not, draft the top available wide receiver.  While this is not unheard of, it is not looked after too highly amongst the eyes of seasoned fantasy football vets.  But here’s the logic, you’ll be drafting a WR sometime, might as well get the best one of the league’s best and not draft a running back who isn’t safe.

Second Round:  In scenario one, you get a top six back, nothing to scoff at and great to build your team around.  Here, you will definitely want to grab the best wideout available, since waiting even one more round will push you into the pool of wr’s that have question marks.  In scenario two, you have a top wideout, and here’s the big twist from this article to any other you’ll read, you’ll want to take another, yes I just said that, you will want to grab another wide receiver, you can stop pinching yourself and rubbing your eyes.  The rationale is simple, the running backs from rounds two to four are statistically comparable where as wide receivers are not.  Let’s play Player A, Player B

Player A:  885 rush yards, 10 total td’s

Player B:  1089 rush yards, 15 total td’s

Player A is Marion Barber, who was on average drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts last year.

Player B is Brandon Jacobs, who on average was drafted at the end of the third and even into the fourth round of drafts.

One more time, this time for wide receivers:

Player A:  1575 yards, 8 td’s

Player B:  821 receiving yards, 5 td’s

Player A is Andre Johnson, who on average was drafted in round two of fantasy drafts last year.

Player B is Santonio Homes, who generated almost as much hype as Mr. Johnson, and was on average taken in the fourth and fifth round of fantasy drafts.

Third Round:  In scenario one, we have a top-six running back, and a top-10 wideout.  Now, you want to take a running back that compliments who you took in round uno.  If you took a yardage machine who gets the boot at he goal-line, then maybe it’s time to snatch up Jonathan Stewart, who had 10 touchdowns last year while playing on a newly surgically repaired toe.  Did you grab a touchdown maker in round one?  Then take a yardage horse such as a Ryan Grant.  In scenario two, we have a pair of stud WR’s.  It’s time to take a running back now, the best available works.

Later rounds: In scenario one you will want to take about two more running backs while mixing in a QB and two good WR’s somewhere in rounds six through eight (the WR’s preferable coming first).  In scenario two, it’s a good idea to stack on some sleeper RB’s such as Chris “Beanie” Wells, who happens to be my favorite sleeper on the year, Shonn Greene, and Rashard Mendenhall.  Take a QB somewhere in rounds six through eight and you should be set.

The goal is to grab the best available player, while avoiding rbbc messes and injury risks.

I’m Taylor Rummel, (The Fantasy Football Wonder) and that’s been Fantasy Football:  A winning draft strategy for 2009.

College Football Road Trips: Oregon’s Autzen Stadium Underrated

Autzen Stadium, home of the Oregon Ducks, is ikely the most under-appreciated college football venue in the country.

With just over 41,000 fans and a single-level bowl (kind of a “mini-me” to the old Sombrero in Tampa), it was easily the loudest stadium I’ve visited; with a list that includes monolith’s like LSU’s Tiger Stadium, Georgia’s Sanford Stadium, Tennessee’s Neyland Stadium, and Texas A&M’s Kyle Field.

As a southern boy with loyalties to Big 12 and SEC teams, it’s difficult to admit.

The first time I remember recognizing the Ducks is when Rich Brooks took his team to the Rose Bowl with Tony Graziani at quarterback.

When Brooks left for the NFL, Mike Bellotti took the torch and carried the Ducks to even greater heights on the national scene becoming a fixture in the top 25, are typically good enough for a Holiday Bowl appearance, and will occasionally go toe-to-toe with the USC Trojans.

I visited Autzen Stadium prior to its most recent expansion in 2002. I was at the 1999 Arizona State game and was taken back with Oregon’s facilities, thanks in large part to Nike’s Phil Knight—a huge Oregon supporter. Eugene is a great college town, surrounded by the Cascade Mountains and great fall weather.

Some other suggestions to those seeking a great college football experience:

1. Husky Stadium—University of Washington—Seattle, WA 
   A great setting on Lake Washington, with Mt. Rainier looming in the background. Wait until the team gets a little better!
2. Notre Dame Stadium—University of Notre Dame—South Bend, IN 
   Whether you’re an Irish fan or not, the tradition of Knute Rockne, Touchdown Jesus, and The Four Horsemen is something to behold.   Stop in and check out the College Football Hall of Fame.
3. Tiger Stadium—LSU—Baton Rouge, LA
   If you plan to go, make it a night game with the best tailgating and food you’ll find anywhere. Night games are easily the best, once everyone has had all day to “ripen.”
4. Kyle Field—Texas A&M—College Station, TX
   Don’t miss Midnight Yell practice the night before the game, where 25-35,000 students and fans show up to “practice” choreographed yells in anticipation of the next day’s game. You may not even want to miss the Aggie Band—a military band usually 350 strong. 
5. Sanford Stadium—UGA—Athens, GA
   A beautiful campus, great tailgating, and passionate fans. Every college football fan should go to a contest “between the hedges.”

On my short list of places I need to visit: the Coliseum at USC, UCLA’s Rose Bowl, Bama’s Bryant-Denny Stadium, Michigan’s Big House, Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium, Penn State’s Happy Valley, Ohio State’s Horseshoe, the Swamp at Florida, Auburn’s Jordan-Hare, and Ole Miss.

Got some other suggestions? Who’s ready for some college football road trips?

 

Vince Wilfork Sends a Strong Message to the Patriots by Skipping OTAs

@Wilfork75 spent this week gardening at home while the rest of the Patriots spent the week practicing at Gillette Stadium.

You see, Wilfork wants a new contract, and if he doesn’t get one, he’d be happy spending the summer (and maybe a large chunk of the fall) gardening instead of playing football.

The Patriots cannot allow this to happen.

Sometimes the player has the leverage, and sometimes the team has it. Contract negotiations are all about leverage. When a player is still under contract, typically the team has all the leverage.

The only way the player can take back the leverage is to hold out. The Patriots have had a few players hold out over the last few years. Both of them now play for other teams (Asante Samuel and Deion Branch).

That result is not an option when it comes to Vince Wilfork. He’s too important to what the Patriots do on defense. They simply cannot get by without him.

Wilfork is one of the few players in the NFL who, even though he’s still under contract, has all of the leverage. He’s got the Patriots by the little Belichicks.

If he doesn’t show up, the Patriots’ defense is, to put it bluntly, screwed.

There is nobody on the roster who can play nose tackle effectively every down except for Vince Wilfork. There are very few, if any, players in the NFL who can play nose tackle as well as Vince Wilfork.

Want to know why Jerod Mayo was the defensive rookie of the year last season? Look at the fat guy lining up in front of him keeping 3/5 of the opposing offensive line occupied.

The Patriots’ defense doesn’t work without a dominant defensive line. The most important position in a 3/4 defensive line is the nose tackle.

Ron Brace is a nice pipe-dream, and maybe he’ll eventually become a pretty good NFL nose tackle. But he’s no Vince Wilfork, and he probably never will be.

The list of defensive tackles who are better than Wilfork is a short one. Albert Haynesworth of the Redskins, Kevin Williams of the Vikings, and maybe Haloti Ngata of the Ravens make up the entire list. That’s it. And none of those guys are coming to New England any time soon.

I’m not advocating giving Wilfork Haynesworth money, but the big man needs to get a big raise.

The Patriots HAVE to pay up.

They’ve played hardball in the past. They’ve stuck to their formula. Nobody is above the team. Everyone has a price. Vince Wilfork doesn’t fall into those categories. Only Tom Brady is more important, and only slightly more.

You think it was bad last season trying to get by without Asante Samuel? Just wait until you see them try to survive with Mike Wright starting at nose tackle.

It’s time to show Vince the money.

 

Follow the Patriots on Twitter: http://twitter.com/realpatriots

Follow Vince Wilfork on Twitter: http://twitter.com/wilfork75

Follow the Patriots Examiner on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PatsExamimer

Find more Patriots coverage like this at http://www.patriotsexaminer.com.

Questions? Comments? Insults? You can email them to Sean Crowe at scrowe@gmail.com.

Five Candidates For A Breakout Season : QBs

Every year there are players who surprise critics and fans alike. New England’s Matt Cassel was last year’s surprise at the quarterback position in Tom Brady’s absence, but looking beyond training camp and into next season. Who are the players who are in need of a big season to either kickstart their career and move into the elites in their position?

These are just my opinion and feel free to comment on my choices…

Mike Tice: Chronicling the Former Seattle Seahawk

My fourth installment of chronicling the careers of former Seattle Seahawks follows former Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Tice.

 

Many know that Mike Tice was the head coach with the Minnesota Vikings from 2001-2005. He led the Vikings to a 32-33 career record in five seasons as head coach including three career playoff games.

 

Before he became a head coach however, he was a former tight end in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. Tice came to Seattle out of the University of Maryland in 1981 where he was a quarterback for the Terrapins. Tice came into the NFL as a tight end.

 

In his rookie season Tice played in all 16 games for the Seahawks where he managed to grab only five passes for 47 yards.

 

Tice had his best season statistically for the Seahawks in 1988. He hauled in 29 passes for 244 yards, averaging 8.4 yards a catch. Tice had his most touchdown receptions in 1991 with the Seahawks with four.

 

Tice left the Seahawks for one season in1989 to join the Washington Redskins. In his only season as a Redskin he played the 16 games, but had only one reception for two yards.

 

Tice came back to the Seattle Seahawks in 1990 and played with the team until 1992, where he went to play for the Minnesota Vikings for two seasons before retiring in 1993. He was coaxed out of retirement in 1995 to play for the Vikings again due to injuries. 

 

After year after his playing career ended Tice began his coaching career. In 1996 he was hired to coach the tight ends for the Minnesota Vikings. A year later, Tice began coaching the offensive line. 

 

Although he gained the reputation of being a tough coach, Tice managed to coach five different players to 10 pro bowl appearances: Randall McDaniel, Jeff Christy, Todd Steussie, Korey Stringer, and Matt Birk. 

 

Birk was the only Viking chosen to the pro bowl in 2001. Tice had the pleasure of coaching the offensive line in the Vikings’ record breaking 1998 campaign.

 

Mike Tice inherited the coaching job in the final game of 2001, replacing Dennis Green.  He was not named the official head coach till January 10th, 2002. He become the first former Vikings player to coach the team later in his career.

 

In his first season the Minnesota Vikings finished 6-10 although they finished winning their final three games. In Tice’s second season the Vikings opened the season 6-0, but they struggled in the next 10 games. 

 

They missed out on the playoffs on the final play of final game in 2003 as Arizona Cardinals receiver Nate Poole gave the Cardinals an 18-17 victory. Green Bay won the division finishing the season with a 10-6 record, Minnesota finished 9-7.

 

2004 had the same tune has 2003 did as the Vikings finished their last 10 games 3-7.  However, the Vikings became the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a .500 record. 

 

They then became the second team in NFL history to win a playoff game with a .500 record by defeating the Green Bay Packers 31-17 in Lambeau Field. The only other .500 team to win a playoff game did it a day earlier as the 8-8 St. Louis Rams defeated the Seattle Seahawks 27-20.

 

Minnesota then lost the next week to the eventual NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles 27-14.

 

2005 began with Tice admitting he was involved in a Super Bowl ticket scalping operation with the organization. Tice was fined a then record $100,000. 

 

The Vikings struggled to a 2-5 record, only to end up finishing 9-7, one game short of the playoffs. The season also involved the “love boat” scandal. Tice was fired at the end of the season.

 

Tice was hired as the Jacksonville Jaguars tight ends coach where he remains today.

The Ballad of Jason Capizzi

My hero, Myron Cope, often admitted he had a weakness for poetry.

 

Once, after calling the Steelers post-game show in 1989, he gave me “10 merits and 27 gold stars” for a poem I read on the air (from a pay phone), celebrating the Steelers’ 27-14 victory against Minnesota that turned the season around.

 

Of course, who could forget how the Terrible Towel’s presence was cemented by a listener’s poem, or Cope’s famous ode to a couple of Pittsburgh Maulers’ wide receivers— “Butts and Potts!”

 

But the presence on the Steelers’ roster of Gibsonia native Jason Capizzi, not to mention an offensive line in need of restructuring, has, yes, inspired me to verse!

 

So, in the hopes of a new local star being produced, I give you “The Ballad of Jason Capizzi.”

 

 

Who to replace Smith and Simmons on the Steelers offensive line?

Will it be Starks? Stapleton? Someone new this time?

How ‘bout someone to appease those with dirty minds?

Jason Capizzi—he’s 6 foot 9!

 

Ahead of him on the roster are Essex and Hills        

They have the rings; they make opponents write wills

But there’s gotta be a place for the transfer from Pitt

Cause I think 6 foot 9 can pick up the blitz!

 

Oh, at IUP he was all honey and milkin!

He only gave up one sack—a stat worthy of Tunch Ilkin!

Is there any way to have three tackles on the line?

We want Capizzi at 6″9′!

 

They laughed when Gene Upshaw moved from tackle to guard

Blocking and trapping—can it really be that hard?

I just want Big Ben to have plenty of time

AND HE’LL GET IT—FROM CAPIZZI—AT 6 FOOT 9!

After Writing About Michael Vick, I Have a Changed View of NFL Fans

Except for the odd article about Tennis, NASCAR, Horse Racing, Baseball memories, etc. I seldom venture off my MMA site.

I so seldom watch other sports that I have little interest in them.

However, being a person who reads the news every day and watches at least one newscast a day, and I am not just referring to the sports and comic sections; when I read a paper, it is the whole deal.

A lot has been written about the number of criminals, drug users, and other bad boys in National sports leagues; even if I wanted to, I couldn’t miss it.

So being an American who has not been lulled into La La Land by all this drivel, I decided to use my Constitutional right to express my opinion on the Michael Vick situation.

There have been times in my past when I have talked to coaches and had conversations with pro athletes. In fact, I wasn’t a senior citizen then and was still active at the time.

How refreshing to be talking to pros who called me “Ma’am” and treated me with respect, regardless of my opinion.

Well! Color me clueless, because the response to my Op Ed piece on Michael Vick has brought me way too much attention from people who have harassed me and let me know that I do not deserve to have an opinion on “their sport,” let alone have the gall to  publicly express it!

In the future, I will have much less respect for the NFL crowd and will be unlikely to read their articles even if invited.

How disturbing it is to be an elderly woman in poor health, who lives life via a laptop and gets the rude responses I have gotten because I “dare” to differ from them.

I have never been treated so roughly and continually harangued by people with whom I simply would not care to spend the time of day.

Most usually readers will express their opinion once, maybe even up to four times, but seldom have I been so besieged by bleeding hearts who think that they will be deprived of a legendary force in football if Michael Vick is not reinstated.

In my opinion, which I am being ostracized for much worse than Vick was for his crimes, Roger Goodell will not be cleaning up the sport or improving its image by bringing Vick back into the public eye.

I would not deprive Vick of a second chance in life; just not a second chance in the NFL.

My opinion that Vick would be a horrible role model for the youth who worship NFL players won’t change under pressure from my critics here, and I hope Goodell has the guts to make a wise decision and stand by it, if he really hopes to accomplish anything as a Commissioner.

Just knowing that there are men out in the world who react as violently as the five or six that will not take their own advice to me and “let it go,” is very disconcerting to a woman my age.

No, I did not think that the age of chivalry I was accustomed to experiencing in my 40s would go on forever, because in my opinion the whole world has gone to hell in a hand-basket since then.

But I would expect better sportsmanship and acceptance of other’s opinions than what I am seeing from these jaded NFL fanatics.

To end my part in this futile war of words I will just say that I am a very stubborn, opinionated woman. I admit that I have high ideals and will not apologize for it. At the age of 63, I am unlikely to change either.

I believe that it was Rod Stewart that said in a song, “You can stand me up against the gates of Hell and I won’t back down.”

And in case it wasn’t Rod, then let’s go with Kris Kristofferson: “Everybody’s got to have somebody to look down on, who they can feel better than at any old time they please, someone doin’ somethin’ dirty peaceful folks can frown on. . .if you can’t find nobody else, then help yourself to me!”

Jesus was a Capricorn and so am I.

Get used to it.

The Best Kickoff Return Men in NFL History

There are many excellent return specialists today in Hester, McGee, Cribbs, Carr, Rossum, Davis, Hall, and many more.

Some specialize in returning mainly punts or kickoffs. Some do both.

First we start with the best kickoff AND punt returner in NFL history:

Brian Mitchell

Brian was a college Quarterback who was drafted in the fifth round of the 1990 draft by the Washington Redskins.

He was converted to running back, but did his major work as a return specialist. Brian split return duties with two other players in his rookie season, but did rush for a TD on 15 attempts.

Taking over the full time return duties the next season, Brian led the NFL with 600 punt return yards and two touchdowns. He also averaged 13.3 yards per return, helping the Redskins win Super Bowl XXVI. He was selected to his first All Pro team that year.

He scored on a career long 84 yard punt return the next season.

Brian led the NFL in all purpose yards 4 times from 1994 to 1998.

In 1994, he led the NFL with a career best 14.1 yards per punt return average. He also led the NFL with two punt return touchdowns. Brian also piled up a career high 1,478 kickoff return yards, while averaging 25.5 yards per return. He would then make the All Pro team.

1995 would be Mitchell’s last All Pro season, when he averaged a career best 25.6 yards per kickoff return, and scoring off of a punt return.

He then scored his first kickoff return touchdown in 1997, and he also scored on a punt return. Mitchell scored on a career long 101 yard kickoff return in 1998.

Brian joined the Philadelphia Eagles in 2000. He played 3 seasons with them, and scored a touchdown on both a punt return and kickoff return in 2 of those years. 2003 would be his last NFL season, which he played with the New York Giants.

His 23,330 total yards ranks second All Time.

He averaged 23.1 yards per kick return on 607 returns, scoring 4 times, and also averaged 10.8 yards per punt return on 463 attempts.

Brian Mitchell holds MANY NFL records.

His 19,013 total return yards is a record, as is his 14,014 kickoff return yards, and his 4,999 punt return yards. His 1,070 kick returns are the most ever, and his 9 punt return touchdowns is the second most ever in NFL history.

His 231 fair catches are the most ever, and his 33 in one season is also an NFL record.

Mitchell is one of just four players in NFL history to gain over 2,000 yards four times in his career.

Here is a list of other greats you hopefully haven’t forgotten :

Winning Hearts & Minds: Taking The NFL Global

Your correspondent has happened to be in Istanbul over the last week, and every taxi driver, bellboy, and barman has struck up a conversation with the wandering Englishman about Wednesday’s Champions League final—even though it contains no Turkish team, no Turkish players, and took place in Rome.

Every bar and hotel screened the full 90 minutes, and international news channels(including CNN) had both pre and post match analysis as part of their news bulletins for days surrounding the game.

Keep Hope Alive AFC West, but the Chargers Aren’t Going Anywhere

Or is that keep dreaming? 

Based on some of the reasoning I am seeing online, the Oakland Raiders will win the division, because of the gloom and doom that shall befall the San Diego Chargers.

When people are saying that LaDainian Tomlinson (LT) has “clearly lost a step,” they are not taking into account the injuries that he was playing with.  Tomlinson was healthy for about three games last season and looked great.  In those games, he averaged 19 carries for 94 yards, which is an average of 4.94 YPC and over 100 YPG of total offense.

It’s important to remember that the Chargers, and probably every other running team, gain more yards per carry as the game goes on.  During the 2006 season, LaDainian Tomlinson averaged about 3.6 YPC for carries 1-10, but averaged 7.6 YPC for carries 21 plus!  With injuries and bad defensive play, LaDainian Tomlinson didn’t get a chance to run the ball 25-30 times a game.

It did not help that the run blocking of the offensive line has steadily deteriorated over the last two seasons.  Too bad for the AFC West that San Diego has addressed that problem with the addition of former Atlanta Falcon Kynan Forney to replace Mike Goff.

Some fans feel like the Chargers will try to use Darren Sproles to replace LT, but that is not the case.  The Chargers know that Sproles is not a season long answer for LT, but they also know that he may be the best screen runner in all of football, and they intend to use him as a weapon against the AFC West and everybody else. 

Unlike a lot of teams, the Chargers know the value of special teams play. Especially after they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs last season due in very large part to not so special teams play.  Having returner Darren Sproles, gunner Kassim Osgood, kicker Nate Kaeding, and punter Mike Scifries puts San Diego one step closer to a win right off the bat. 

When those guys win the special teams battle, it will be very difficult for any team to beat the Chargers.

The Chargers’ points scored and offensive yardage ranking generally don’t match, because they win the hidden yardage game.  The Chargers were number two in points scored last season, but ranked number eleven in total offense. 

Take the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts always seem to at least be even with the Chargers when you simply look at offense and defense talent, but have a clear disadvantage on special teams. When the Colts play the Chargers, they are usually forced to drive a lot further for points which means they usually lose—and are full of excuses. 

It also means that teams with lesser offenses usually lose to the Chargers as well, because they don’t have a Tom Brady. 

I am repeatedly seeing head coach Norv Turner bashed on the Internet, and when I look at articles other than the ones I have been writing, those guys are not too thrilled with Turner either.

Turner had no business trying to improve San Diego’s offensive philosophy (the Chargers have changed back to a run first team), but he was brought in to develop Philip Rivers into a championship caliber passer and win in the playoffs. 

Can there be any doubt that he’s doing his job? 

The offense has done exactly what Norv Turner said he wanted it to be able to do.  Move the ball against good defenses in big games.  Bad luck has struck San Diego down in the playoffs, rather than superior opponents. 

Eventually, teams will have to face a completely healthy Chargers team in the playoffs and then we’ll see how good of a big game coach Norv Turner really is.

Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell was just as bad as 2003 defensive coordinator Dale Lindsey.  Just as Lindsey’s bad coaching was covered up by Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison, and then exposed when they left the following season; Ted Cottrell’s horrendous play calling was covered up by the ferocious pass rushing of Shawne Merriman and then exposed when he was injured last season.

Replacing Cottrell, new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera will have his chance to turn Chargers defense back into the formidable force it was a couple of years ago.

In defense of Cottrell, with a healthy Merriman on the field it was nearly impossible for teams to successfully pass the ball on the Chargers.

There has been speculation that the window has closed on the Chargers.  No.  While stars LaDainian Tomlinson, Stephen Cooper, and Quentin Jammer are all going to be 30 years old when the season starts, the other stars on the team are all 25 – 28 years old.  

It should not be assumed that there will be mass exodus of players like Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Shawne Merriman when their contracts are up.  While they can’t Franchise Tag everybody, the Chargers are a well run organization and players generally do not want to skip town. 

28-year old Kris Dielman couldn’t even bring himself to take an extra few million to sign with the Seattle Seahawks and leave the Chargers.

As long as Rivers is on the team, the team has a chance at the Super Bowl if the rest of the team is at least solid.  The window is not closing anytime soon. 

Fans of other AFC West teams feel that their teams have made significant strides to take over the division from the Chargers.  After all the Chargers went 8-8 last season.  However, the Chargers have gone 5-1 against the AFC West three out of the last four seasons.  With all the injuries the Bolts sustained, going 1-5 against the Chargers is not a good sign for the AFC West. 

Most good teams have a down season due to injury, luck, age or other reasons—like the 2007 Ravens—but the AFC West was so bad, they couldn’t even kick the Chargers when they were down.

However! 

I have to believe, like with the Chargers, a simple philosophy change could result in a sudden and permanent turn around for at least one of the other AFC West teams. 

In 2004, the Bolts made significant personnel changes.  The Bolts hit at least 10 home runs on players like free agent Steve Foley, draft pick Shane Olivea, or left tackle Roman Oben who was traded to the Chargers from Tampa Bay.  The Chargers suddenly became one of the most talented teams in the league. 

The Chargers also switched from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense.  The offense switched from a run first team to a no huddle, pass first team after Marty Schottenheimer realized the Chargers two minute offense seemed to be completely unstoppable at the end of games. 

After starting 1-2, the offensive change surprised the Titans and Jaguars, which resulted in blowout wins and victories in 10 out of the next 11 games.

Norv Turner is likely to change San Diego back into a pass first team in 2009.  Trouble is brewing for the AFC West, with that change in conjunction with the return of Shawne Merriman.

I believe that either the Chiefs or the Raiders may be that mismanaged team in the AFC West.  I am not sure what to expect from the Broncos, but I know they have tremendous talent on offense.

In any case, don’t expect the Chargers to collapse due to injuries and horrendous defensive play calling again this season.  If the AFC West wants to dethrone the Chargers after three seasons on top, they will have to earn it on the field.

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