Free NFL Picks: Week Three

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for NFLSportChannel.com

Published: September 22, 2009

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... style="line-height: 130%;">It is not a complicated theory, but it can be difficult to pull the trigger on certain bets. As a rule when it comes to following the ebb and flow theory: Don't waiver on your decisions.

You may drop two bets in row following the theory, but that does not mean you jump ship and bet differently in the third game.

The ebb and flow theory basically goes something like this: Find a team coming off an emotional win playing against a team that looks down in the dumps and bet against the team that is riding a high wave of emotions.

Last week Cincinnati fell into this role when it took on Green Bay. As it turned out, the Bengals won the game outright as nine-point pooches. It was a nice win to pick up along with the N.Y. Jets, but in the end it was only a 4-3 week. On the season I improved to 9-5.

Take one step further. Look a...

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