Saints Pull Away From Colts in Weekly Power Poll

Convincing victories over Tampa Bay and New England the last two weeks have enabled New Orleans to open a little breathing room over Indianapolis in my weekly NFL Power Poll.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team’s adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

The second statistic compares a team’s scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure whether a team is posting a better offensive performance than you would expect from an average team.

The third stat compares a team’s defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. Again, this is an attempt to determine whether the defense is faring better or worse than an average team against the schedule.

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team’s defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team’s adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 12 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total	Week 10
1	New Orleans Saints	4.420	1
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.050	2
3	Minnesota Vikings	3.598	4
4	New England Patriots	3.416	3
5	Baltimore Ravens	2.909	7
6	San Diego Chargers	2.775	12
7	Dallas Cowboys	2.525	10
8	Cincinnati Bengals	2.399	5
9	Philadelphia Eagles	2.336	13
10	Green Bay Packers	2.255	17
11	Denver Broncos	2.223	11
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.108	8
13	Atlanta Falcons	2.101	9
14	Arizona Cardinals	2.066	6
15	New York Giants	2.025	15
16	Houston Texans	1.799	14
17	New York Jets	1.706	18
18	San Francisco 49ers	1.700	19
19	Miami Dolphins	1.570	16
20	Tennessee Titans	1.177	23
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.830	22
22	Carolina Panthers	0.722	20
23	Chicago Bears	0.695	21
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.508	24
25	Buffalo Bills	0.224	25
26	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.030	27
27	Washington Redskins	-0.109	26
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.127	29
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.515	28
30	Detroit Lions	-0.811	30
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.960	31
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.125	32

If I were a betting man (3-1 against the spread in Week 10)…

I would take Houston (pick) over Jacksonville, San Francisco (pick) over Seattle, Baltimore (minus three) over Green Bay, New England (minus five) over Miami, and Dallas (minus two) over the New York Giants.

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Despite Loss to Colts, Patriots Stay Third in NFL Power Poll

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team’s adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose seven games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team’s scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team’s offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stat compares a team’s defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team’s defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while their opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team’s defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team’s adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total
1	New Orleans Saints	4.200
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.110
3	New England Patriots	3.372
4	Minnesota Vikings	3.220
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3.213
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.712
7	Baltimore Ravens	2.686
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.685
9	Atlanta Falcons	2.669
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.435
11	Denver Broncos	2.299
12	San Diego Chargers	2.241
13	Philadelphia Eagles	2.108
14	Houston Texans	2.079
15	New York Giants	2.059
16	Miami Dolphins	1.945
17	Green Bay Packers	1.840
18	New York Jets	1.722
19	San Francisco 49ers	1.559
20	Carolina Panthers	1.157
21	Chicago Bears	0.907
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.890
23	Tennessee Titans	0.661
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.607
25	Buffalo Bills	-0.045
26	Washington Redskins	-0.180
27	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.409
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.544
29	Oakland Raiders	-0.738
30	Detroit Lions	-0.799
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.890
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.319

If I were a betting man…

I would go with the No. 16 Dolphins (plus three-and-a-half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three-and-a-half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 17 Packers.

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Saints, Colts, and Patriots Top Week 11 Power Poll

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team’s adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose 7 games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team’s scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team’s offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stats compares a team’s defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team’s defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while their opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team’s defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team’s adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total
1	New Orleans Saints	4.200
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.110
3	New England Patriots	3.372
4	Minnesota Vikings	3.220
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3.213
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.712
7	Baltimore Ravens	2.686
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.685
9	Atlanta Falcons	2.669
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.435
11	Denver Broncos	2.299
12	San Diego Chargers	2.241
13	Philadelphia Eagles	2.108
14	Houston Texans	2.079
15	New York Giants	2.059
16	Miami Dolphins	1.945
17	Green Bay Packers	1.840
18	New York Jets	1.722
19	San Francisco 49ers	1.559
20	Carolina Panthers	1.157
21	Chicago Bears	0.907
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.890
23	Tennessee Titans	0.661
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.607
25	Buffalo Bills	-0.045
26	Washington Redskins	-0.180
27	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.409
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.544
29	Oakland Raiders	-0.738
30	Detroit Lions	-0.799
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.890
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.319

If I were a betting man…

I would go with No. 16 Dolphins (plus three and a half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six and a half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three and a half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six and a half) over the No.17 Packers.

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Yet Another NFL Power Poll, But This One Really Counts

It seems like there are more Power Polls around than there are NFL teams. Every site has one—ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Sports Illustrated. The list goes on and on.

The polls usually feature the subjective rankings of one or more members of the site’s staff and tend to fluctuate wildly because they are almost always greatly influenced by the flavor of the week (the Jets were as high as No. 3 in some of the early polls, but now tread near the middle of the pack).

I have devised a formula that attempts to look at the team’s relative strengths and weaknesses based on two sets of statistics—their adjusted win-loss percentage and their average offensive and defensive output in relation to their opponents.

A team’s adjusted win-loss percentage attempts to identify the caliber of opponents that teams are beating or losing to. You figure out the adjusted win-loss by giving a team credit for the wins of each opponent it defeated, and likewise, they are credited with the losses of each team they have lost to.

As an example, the Denver Broncos have an adjusted win-loss record of 26-6. The six teams they have beaten (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Dallas, New England and San Diego) have combined to win 26 games. The two teams they lost to—Baltimore and Pittsburgh—have a combined six losses.

New Orleans and Indianapolis each have an adjusted winning percentage of 1.000, but it is interesting to note that the Saints’ adjusted record is 29-0 compared to the Colts’ 26-0.

The next stat determines how a team is performing against how an average team would perform against its opponents in terms of points scored and points allowed. New Orleans is averaging an impressive 37.9 points a game through its first eight games, but what makes the mark even more outstanding is that their eight opponents are allowing an average of only 22.5 points per game. New Orleans is scoring 15.4 points more per game than an average team would be when faced with the same schedule.

The team with the second-highest differential is Minnesota at 7.4—less than half of New Orleans’ differential! New England is tied for third at 5.9 with surprising Baltimore, and perhaps an even bigger surprise—Miami—checks in at No. 5 with a 5.7 differential.

Defensively, the team that has posted the best differential is Indianapolis, which is holding its opponents to 6.9 points per game fewer than their cumulative average. New England checks in at No. 2 on this list at 6.5, followed by Denver (6.2), the New York Jets (5.9), and the Cincinnati Bengals (5.3).

To determine a team’s final ranking, I use a formula that takes into account all three factors. After running the numbers, here are this week’s Power Rankings.

Team	Score
1. New Orleans Saints	2.550
2. Indianapolis Colts	2.000
3. New England Patriots	1.980
4. Atlanta Falcons	1.539
5. Cincinnati Bengals	1.533
T-6. Baltimore Ravens	1.480
T-6. Minnesota Vikings	1.480
8. Dallas Cowboys	1.420
9. Denver Broncos	1.303
10. Arizona Cardinals	1.197
11. Pittsburgh Steelers	1.188
12. Philadelphia Eagles	1.170
13. Miami Dolphins	1.139
14. New York Jets	1.000
15. New York Giants	0.861
16. Houston Texans	0.793
17. San Diego Chargers	0.689
18. Green Bay Packers	0.459
19. San Francisco 49ers	0.451
20. Chicago Bears	0.308
21. Seattle Seahawks	0.150
22. Carolina Panthers	0.011
23. Buffalo Bills	-0.232
24. Tennessee Titans	-0.426
25. Jacksonville Jaguars	-0.499
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.811
27. Kansas City Chiefs	-0.859
28. Washington Redskins	-0.995
29. Oakland Raiders	-1.049
30. Detroit Lions	-1.060
31. Cleveland Browns	-1.124
32. St. Louis Rams	-1.712

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