NFL Sport Channel | Author Archives

An embarrassing final period. An epic near-collapse. A defensive meltdown worse than any other in the Brad Childress era.

Minnesota should take many emotions away from Sunday’s escape from disaster—shock, confusion, chagrin—but relief isn’t one of them.

To be sure, there’s nothing wrong with a close victory over a quality opponent like Baltimore. There’s nothing wrong with another stellar day from Brett Favre (21-of-29, 278 yards, three touchdowns). There’s nothing wrong with 143 yards on 22 carries from Adrian Peterson.

But there’s something very wrong with a defense that has allowed 400 yards or more in three consecutive games—after letting opponents reach that mark just three times in defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier’s first 35 games at the helm.

The 1,272 yards Minnesota has given up over the past three weeks are the most surrendered in any three-game stretch of Frazier’s tenure. The 448 yards gained by the Ravens were the most by any Vikings opponent since 2005.

Wins in all three of those games have kept most critics quiet, but in the long run, that kind of generosity is unsustainable.

So what’s the problem? Opponents are starting to figure out that the Vikings are stout on the ground, but prone to lapses in defending the pass.

This is not a new phenomenon. Last season, Minnesota’s pass defense was the definition of average. The Vikes ranked 16th in the league in both completion percentage allowed (61.1 percent) and opponent passer rating (81.5), and 18th in passing yards allowed.

A strong pass rush covers up plenty of shortcomings, and Minnesota’s front four do plenty of covering: The team finished fourth in the NFL in sacks last year, and currently leads the league with 16.

But when Jared Allen & Co. aren’t getting to the quarterback, the secondary is far from airtight. In fact, this year, it’s gone from middling to frightening. Consider that the Vikings have allowed:

Timely turnovers have limited the damage, and it’s fair to point Minnesota’s defensive numbers are skewed by late slippage in games that were well in hand. But as the Ravens came oh-so-close to proving yesterday, one of those slips is going to knock this team on it’s butt before all is said and done.

I can hear the objections already: Why should we care about any of this if they’re 6-0? Two reasons:

Any extended absence by Pro Bowl corner Antoine Winfield, who left in the first half with a sprained foot, won’t help matters. If the Vikings don’t have the personnel to stick with receivers in coverage, they might want to consider dialing up a few more blitzes that bring the linebackers—who have just 2.5 sacks on the year—into the backfield. If they’re relying on one strength to disrupt the pass, they might as well play it up.

Whatever needs to happen, it needs to happen soon: The Vikes are in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and Ben Roethlisberger currently ranks first in yards passing, second in completion percentage and fourth in passer rating.

Brett Favre thought Ravens kicker Steven Hauschka was going to make his 44-yard game-winning attempt as time expired. Brad Childress told Adrian Peterson Hauschka was going to miss it.

Childress was right, but he’d be well advised not to bet the mortgage on that call going forward.

NFL kickers have attempted 96 field goals between 40 and 50 yards this season. They’ve connected on 67 of those, a 69 percent rate of success. I can’t say how being in a dome full of screaming Vikings fans impacts those odds, but it’s safe to say the Men of Chilly got lucky.

The miss was reminiscent over Minnesota’s 28-27 win over Green Bay at the Dome last December, in which Packers kicker Mason Crosby couldn’t connect on a 52-yarder with 26 seconds to go. Much like Hauschka’s kick, that attempt wasn’t wide by much.

Of course, there’s nothing wrong with a little “you can’t kick here in the clutch” mystique, so if the Vikes are building credibility in that department, more power to them.

Are We a Powerhouse Yet?

Before the season started, more than a few pundits predicted the rise of the NFC North as the conference’s new elite division.

On one hand, the Vikings are certainly carving out a place as one of the NFC’s legitimate contenders. The Bears are playing everybody tough, and the Packers are coming off a 26-0 blowout.

On the other, Green Bay’s win came at the expense of another North team—the Lions, who look as bad as ever in the wake of injuries to Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. If those two aren’t back soon, Detroit could flirt with 2008-level misery.

Three of the North’s four teams have winning records, but in the top-heavy NFC, 10 teams can say that much. All of those clubs probably have the talent to contend for a playoff spot (and if the Panthers beat Atlanta next week to climb back to .500, they’ll be in the mix as well, believe it or not).

In a field packed so tightly, those head-to-head matchups will loom large in the final standings—and go a long way toward determining which division reigns supreme.

If so, I’m tempted to root for the Steelers this week, just so we can move on.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign , a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher .

Vikings-Rams: When “Balls Out” Is a Bad Strategy, and Other Observations

The Vikings gave up 400 yards of offense in St. Louis on Sunday. They gave up 27 first downs. They gave up four trips to the red zone.

When the Rams drove to the Vikings’ 35 in the first quarter, Allen snatched up a Kevin Williams-induced fumble and hustled 52 yards for a 14-0 lead.

When the Rams forged their way to the Vikings’ one-yard line in the second quarter, Allen dove on a ball jarred loose by Pat Williams to stop the drive in its tracks.

Allen, the NFC’s leader in sacks after last week’s romp against the Packers, didn’t get to Kyle Boller or Marc Bulger. In fact, Minnesota recorded just one sack on the afternoon—and only managed that many because Boller’s fumble came behind the line of scrimmage.

From the get-go, St. Louis figured out the formula that eluded Green Bay: If you can keep your quarterback upright against the Vikings (admittedly easier said than done), you can gain ground through the air against the Minnesota secondary.

Against this defense, however, moving the ball and keeping the ball are two different things.

Boller engineered two first-and-goal situations that were snuffed out by fumbles. He put together a 15-play drive that ended with a pick in the end zone on 4th-and-6 from the Minnesota nine.

For those of you keeping score at home, that’s three trips inside the opponent’s 10, with zero points to show for it.

By the time Bulger stepped in to go 7-of-7 for 88 yards and a touchdown, the Rams were simply saving face.

It’s difficult to say how Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will feel about his unit’s showing in this one. On one hand, he can’t be thrilled about letting one of the two or three worst offenses in the league march up and down the field all day.

The Vikings allowed 400 yards for just the fifth time in Frazier’s 37-game stint as coordinator. They gave up 424 to the Packers the week before. That’s a bad trend.

On the other, Frazier has to admire his team’s relentless nose for the football. One turnover might be a lucky break for a defense; four are a product of coaching and determination. If the Vikings combine their ball-hawking ways with the stingy habits that held their first three opponents to an average of 259 yards, they’ll measure up as one of the elite defenses in the NFC.

Until then, Frazier should be grateful to have the kinds of playmakers that can rip a big drive right out of an opponent’s hands.

If misery loves company, the Rams must have made all kinds of friends on an afternoon that featured the widest selection of crap-tastic football in recent memory.

Six of Sunday’s 12 games were bona fide blowouts. The Jags managed just 10 first downs in a 41-doughnut massacre in Seattle. The Raiders collected just nine in a 44-7 beat-down in Jersey in which the Giants pulled Eli Manning before the end of the first half. The Niners took a 35-10 deficit into intermission against the Falcons at home.

The Browns were held to nine first downs, 193 yards of offense, and two complete passes in 17 attempts—and won.

Even photo finishes in Kansas City, Denver, and Arizona couldn’t salvage the day. If the league had a quality control department, Roger Goodell would be busting some heads tomorrow morning.

As it is, all he can do is call a few of the offending clubs and kindly ask them not to stink so darn much.

After two frustrating weeks in a row, Adrian Peterson got the chance to remind us why Brett Favre called him the best running back he’s ever played with.

The monster yardage still wasn’t there—and it won’t be until Peterson, who has broken just one run of longer than 15 yards in the past three weeks, starts hitting home runs again.

But AP found the end zone twice to tie for the NFL lead with seven scores on the year. In other words, Peterson has scored more touchdowns on the season than the Panthers, Browns, Raiders, or Rams. He’s scored as many or more points on the year as the last two teams on that list.

Peterson also sat out a couple of late-game series once the win was well in hand. That probably cost him a third TD on the day.

The 2,000-yard campaign AP covets may not be in the cards, but a scoring title is a possibility, and a second straight rushing crown isn’t far-fetched, either.

Everybody geared up for next week’s clash of the 5-0 Giants and 4-0 Saints in New Orleans?

Good, because we won’t get another showdown of that caliber for a while this season—if we get another one at all.

If the Saints come out on top, they won’t face another unbeaten opponent all year (although they may face a pair of winless ones when they travel to St. Louis in Week 10 and Tampa Bay in Week 11).

If the Giants win, they won’t have the chance to take down another perfect team until they come to Minnesota in Week 17. And I have a funny feeling neither the G-Men nor the Vikes will be sitting on 15-0 at that point in the year.

On the other side of the bracket, the Colts and Broncos, both 5-0 after today, will get a crack at each other in Week 14.

If that game turns out to be a battle of the 12-0 juggernauts, mine won’t be the only eyebrow raised.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Vikings-Rams: After Two Heart-Pounding Weeks, Minnesota Is Due for a Break

Whenever the Bears come to Minnesota to play the Vikings, my priest likes to tell a story about Goldilocks and the Three Bears.

After the events of the fairy tale, the Three Bears ran into some marital troubles (evidently, Papa Bear doesn’t cope well when you mess with his porridge).

Things went from bad to worse, Mama and Papa decided it was time for a divorce (a terrible shame, as my priest would say, but in a post-Vatican II world, what can you do?)

As usual, the real victim here was the kid, and before long, Baby Bear was in front of a judge, who wanted to know which parent he’d like to move in with.

Well, the Rams are on the agenda for Sunday. And right now, the Rams don’t beat anybody.

After two high-powered hype-fests in a row—a mini-showdown with 2-0 San Francisco and a mega-showdown with The Opponent Formerly Known as Brett Favre’s Team—the Vikes could use a break.

It’s a bad sign for any team when “0-4” is the most optimistic description available, but that’s the position St. Louis finds itself in right now. Go beyond the record, and the numbers are downright depressing.

The Rams have put up 24 points on the year. The next-lowest scoring team in the league, Carolina, has put up 37—and the Panthers have played one fewer game. St. Louis is on pace to shatter the record for fewest points scored in a 16-game season—currently 143 by the 1991 Colts—by nearly seven touchdowns.

The Rams are sitting on a minus-84 point differential. They’re a serious threat to post a worse differential than the minus-249 debacle in Detroit last year. The next-worst mark this year belongs to the Browns, at minus-69. And if you’ve watched the Browns, they aren’t setting the bar all that high.

It’s enough to make you think NFL quarterback guru Rush Limbaugh, the man trying to buy this mess, is a few tacos short of a combination platter. And who would ever think that about Rush?

It’s enough to make you wonder if last year’s Lions were really that bad. Simply put, St. Louis has the makings of an historically terrible team.

The Rams were down 23-7 to the Packers after 28 minutes. They were down 35-0 to the Niners after 46 minutes.

With that in mind, the Vikings had better hope the transitive property holds some weight here. They need this game as a cushion to soften the blows lurking just around the bend.

Baltimore comes to town in Week Six, and the Vikes make the hike to Pittsburgh in Week Seven. After that, it’s on to Lambeau to face a team out for revenge and a crowd out for blood.

I’m not saying Minnesota is due for a loss somewhere in that stretch. I’m just saying I wouldn’t get too attached to that “0” in the loss column just yet.

If I believed in trap games in the NFL, I’d say the Rams matchup was about as classic an example as they come. As it is, I’m not particularly concerned that the Vikings won’t show up at the Edward Jones Dome ready to play. But with a couple of bruisers on the horizon, it’s imperative for Minnesota walk out of this one with five wins in hand.

So while half the product on the field may be putrid, Vikings fans, enjoy this one. Enjoy the sight of an unshackled Adrian Peterson. Enjoy Bernard Berrian’s newfound fantasy value. Enjoy Tarvaris Jackson’s upcoming appearance as a human victory cigar.

We might not get another romp like this for some time. At least not until the Bears come to town, that is. And we all know how that one goes.

A Look at the Greatest Vikings-Packers Games of the Past Decade

If you’re an ESPN executive, the most exciting sentence in the English language right now probably goes a little something like this:

Brett Favre takes on the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football.

Combine a bitter rivalry with a hugely polarizing star, stick it in the most popular timeslot of the most popular sport in America, and what do you get?

One seriously popular product, that’s what. Dolphins-Colts drew nearly 15 million viewers a few weeks ago on Monday night. It’s hard to imagine Vikings-Packers won’t blow that number out of the water. Whatever the final score, the “Worldwide Leader” is poised to put up some seriously crooked numbers.

The craziest part? Monday night’s game isn’t even the most exciting showdown between the two teams this season. That won’t come until Nov. 1, when Favre takes the stage in front of 72,000 of his scorned admirers at Lambeau Field. As Samuel L. Jackson might tell us, “Hold on to your butts.”

On the eve of the opening act of one of most riveting regular-season dramas we can remember, we’re compelled to look back at a handful of the classic Minnesota-Green Bay clashes that have paved the way.

Here, we highlight four such games. Our guess is that before the season is over, we’ll have a strong candidate to round out the top five.

Between Sept. 3, 1995 and Oct. 5, 1998, the Packers played 25 regular-season games at Lambeau.

That’s a three-year stretch of dominance that rivals the length of the average NFL career. In other words, a whole generation of players came and went without seeing the Packers lose at home.

Moss made an impact from Week One of his rookie campaign, but this game served as his coming-out party: Five catches, 190 yards, two touchdowns, and one shattered winning streak.

Randall Cunningham threw for 442 yards and four scores on the day. Favre tossed three picks before getting the hook in favor of Doug Pederson, and a young Ryan Longwell kicked a field goal and three PATs in a losing effort.

Some Packer fans will tell you this game was the beginning of the end of the Holmgren era. For Vikings fans getting caught up in the magical 1998 season, it was the beginning of something special.

If you read the box score, it looked simple: Antonio Freeman caught a 43-yard pass from Brett Favre to win the game.

If you remember the play that went down as “The Improbable Bobble,” it was anything but.

On a messy night in Green Bay, Daunte Culpepper and the Vikings spent four quarters matching the Pack blow-for-blow. Both offenses were pass-happy, and neither moved the ball well in the rain.

The Vikings nearly won the game in regulation, but as Gary Anderson lined up for a 33-yard field goal with seven seconds to play, Mitch Berger muffed the snap, then chucked up an ill-advised pass attempt that was picked off to send the game into overtime.

On 3rd-and-4 during Green Bay’s first possession of OT, Minnesota pressured Favre into a long lob to Antonio Freeman. Vikings corner Chris Dishman broke it up.

Dishman whacked the ball out of the air and off of his body. Freeman, face-down on the ground, somehow came up with the ricochet on the fly.

Dishman didn’t notice that Freeman wasn’t down, and Freeman waltzed Scot-free into the endzone for the win.

As Favre tells it, he mobbed Freeman during the ensuing celebration before asking in a whisper, “Did you catch it?”

The Vikings started 5-1 and finished 8-8. Mike Tice was nailed for running a Super Bowl ticket scalping operation a few months after the season ended. Randy Moss ruffled plenty of feathers when he headed to the locker room with a few seconds left on the clock at the end of a Week 17 loss in Washington.

The first and only playoff meeting between the Vikings and Packers was a tale of two quarterbacks. Culpepper racked up 284 yards passing and two touchdowns; Favre threw for 216 yards, a touchdown, and four interceptions.

Moss, allegedly nursing a hamstring injury, caught four balls for 70 yards and two scores. He punctuated his second trip to the end zone by giving Packer fans—notorious for mooning the visiting team’s bus as it approaches and leaves the stadium—a little taste of their own medicine.

If you ask me, the league’s $10,000 fine for the stunt was a small price to pay for making the ever-obnoxious Joe Buck freak out on the air about an act he deemed “disgusting.” Evidently, Buck was unaware that Moss had in fact kept his pants on.

The Vikings went on to get pasted by the Eagles the following week, but if there was ever a win to validate a long, ugly season, this was it.

When Lovie Smith took over as the Bears head coach, his first stated goal was clear: Beat the Packers.

When Brad Childress took the Vikings job, he never went public with a similar intention. Considering Minnesota kicked off his tenure with an 0-5 skid against Green Bay, that’s probably a good thing.

Heading into this game, Childress had plenty to worry about besides that streak. The Vikings were 4-4 and a tied for third place. In their last divisional game, they’d turned the ball over five times and given up 48 points in a loss to the Bears. The high-profile acquisitions they’d made in the offseason (Jared Allen, Bernard Berrian) hadn’t vaulted them into contention.

Peterson ripped off 192 yards rushing on 30 carries, including a 29-yard rumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to stop a 17-0 Green Bay run. The PAT gave the Vikings a one-point lead with a little more than two minutes to play.

Aaron Rodgers brought the Pack to the outskirts of field goal range, but Mason Crosby pushed the go-ahead kick a few feet wide of the upright from 52 yards out, giving Childress his first win over his biggest rival.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Something About These Vikings Still Makes Us a Little Nervous

If the Vikings were any other Super Bowl contender, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

With any other contender, we’d be counting up Adrian Peterson’s touchdowns in advance. We’d be debating whether Brett Favre qualifies as an elite fantasy option this week. We’d be game-planning for San Francisco.

But we’re not. We’re working up a “wait-and-see” attitude that speaks volumes about how far these Vikings have to go to win our trust.

You’d think a 17-3 mark against the Lions over the past decade would earn Minnesota a little slack here. And you’d think a 45-27 beatdown in New Orleans last week would keep Detroit’s stock down heading into tomorrow’s game.

Look past the Vikings’ daunting head-to-head edge, however, and you’ll see a long list of close calls. Over the past 10 years, 11 of Minnesota’s wins in the series have been single-possession affairs.

Factor in Detroit’s three wins, and the final margin 14 of the past 20 Vikings-Lions games has been seven points or less.

Last season, the Vikings outscored Detroit by a total of six points in two wins, and trailed entering the fourth quarter in both games. Against a Lions team that lost 13 games by at least a touchdown in 2008, that practically constitutes defeat.

History aside, the consternation over a potential upset tomorrow sheds light on a lack of faith in Minnesota’s ability to dictate the course of the game against an inferior opponent.

We’re not sure if we trust the passing offense to shred Detroit’s dismal secondary. We’re not sure if we trust the defense to bottle up Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith.

And we’re not sure if we trust Brad Childress to go for the kill early rather than letting the Lions linger into the second half, as the Browns did last week.

Indeed, at the heart of the lingering unease that surrounds Sunday’s game is the sense (fair or otherwise) that Childress’ Vikings squads have a knack for underachieving.

Fans wanted the playoffs in 2007; they got 8-8. They wanted a Super Bowl berth last year and got a first-round loss at home.

In some circles, Childress is seen as a coach who can’t seem to maximize the sum of his team’s talented parts.

If the Vikings want to make the leap from good to great, they need to put those doubts to rest. They need to stamp out any trace of hope Detroit might have.

At halftime, we shouldn’t be asking if the Vikings are going to pull this one out. We should be asking when they’re going to call off the dogs.

For the record, I don’t expect an upset, or even a squeaker. If the Vikes can drop 34 points on a middle-of-the-pack Browns defense, I don’t see why they can’t hang at least that many on Detroit.

I don’t think Matthew Stafford will stay upright against Minnesota’s front four. Frankly, I don’t see how the Lions will stay within single digits.

If we were talking about any other contender, these things would go without saying.

But we’re talking about the Vikings. And even against the Lions, this is one bunch of Super Bowl hopefuls with plenty left to prove.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Don’t Let the NFL Raise Your Kids, Folks

Concerned league officials want to—well, they probably want to keep selling ads to the highest bidder, salacious or otherwise. But one imagines they’ll at least pretend to listen.

I can sympathize a bit with Mom and Pop here. If I were in their shoes, I wouldn’t want to tear myself away from The Drive to give little Jimmy The Talk. And I certainly wouldn’t want my sons and daughters growing up with the impression that it’s cool to drink anything that tastes like Bud Light Lime.

But if you’re looking to the NFL as a source of good old-fashioned family values, you’re probably looking in the wrong place.

Sure, plopping down in front of the plasma with the kids on Sunday afternoon can be a great way to teach a few life lessons. You can point out Drew Brees and talk about overcoming adversity and labels. You can give a nod to Tony Dungy and talk about living a life of service.

But if your children are keen on following professional football, they’re going to learn more than that.

They’re going to learn why Michael Vick was taking a break from football. They’re going to see Albert Haynesworth’s foot getting cozy with Andre Gurode’s face. They’re going to wonder why Mark Chmura was so fond of hot-tub parties.

Whether those kids read ESPN.com, watch SportsCenter, or talk about football with their friends at school, they’re going to hear about substance abuse. And domestic violence. And sex scandals.

The league is just like any other collection of people: There are really good guys, and there are really, really bad ones. If your kids are into football, they’re going to learn about both.

You can explain that advertisers are willing to say and show absurd things to sell a product, that commercials depict a fantasy world. But you’re also going to have to explain the absurd (and sometimes terrible) things NFL players do in the real world.

You’re going to have to explain how Travis Henry actually fathered 11 children. You’re going to have to explain how Pacman Jones actually incited a strip-club shooting. You’re going to have to explain how Donte Stallworth actually killed a man.

In a few years, you might have to explain how football is on hold for a while because a collection of the world’s richest men can’t agree on how to get richer.

It’s enough to make an awkward question or two about erectile dysfunction seem like a breeze.

This doesn’t mean you should block the NFL Network and bar your children from fan-dom until they turn 18. Growing up with a team to cheer for is one of the joys of the American experience, and I’m not suggesting you pull the plug on it.

If your kids can grasp the concept of a fair catch, they can grasp the idea that some products aren’t appropriate for them. With a bit of guidance, they can handle the fact that some people do bad things.

If you can convince them they shouldn’t follow in the footsteps of Jared Allen and sack their buddies on the playground, you can convince them that they shouldn’t follow in the footsteps on the game’s less savory stars—and if you want them to have a positive experience following football, you’re going to need to do just that.

You might still squirm a bit when that Viagra commercial rolls around. Just remember: If you’re hoping the NFL will send a wholesome message to your kids, that commercial is the least of your concerns.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Don’t Start Believin’: Debunking Five NFL Myths for 2009

If Malibu Stacy is right when she tells us, “thinking too much gives you wrinkles,” NFL pundits should be one baby-faced bunch.

The sheer volume of chatter surrounding the league has rendered the expenditure of brainpower while offering up football analysis strictly optional. You don’t need to dig deep to pick up a working knowledge of the league. The odds are excellent that if you want an opinion on a given topic, someone’s already come up with one for you.

The upside of this endless universe of gridiron commentary is it’s extremely easy to learn a lot without burning through too many neurons. The downside is an echo chamber in which half-baked ideas are introduced and amplified until they become downright deafening.

We’re going to make an effort to stop a view of those runaway platitudes in their tracks. Below, we have five bits of myth, opinion, and innuendo pertaining to the 2009 season bandied around this offseason like God wrote ’em on a tablet and handed ’em to Moses.

Some crop up from year to year, while others are mere flavors of the month. All of them sound pretty good when you first hear them.

When you get below the surface, however, all of them make you sound about as bright as Malibu Stacy.

In case you haven’t already heard from every last pundit picking the Saints this year, the NFC South has never crowned a repeat champion or sent a team to the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

Count SI.com’s Don Banks and ESPN.com’s Gene Wojciechowski among the notables quoting this tidbit of pseudo-wisdom in their predictions for the division. And it’s true: The 10 playoff teams in the history of the South have gone oh-fer the following season.

But if you’re making the case against Atlanta and Carolina, this “trend” is one flimsy piece of evidence. The South has been around for seven seasons, meaning there have been a grand total of six opportunities for a repeat champ.

Discounting last year’s winner based on that sample size is like saying a quarterback who misfires on six passes in a row will never record a completion again.

The Chicago Cubs have a streak to worry about. So do Englishmen at Wimbeldon. NFC South hopefuls are dealing with nothing of the sort.

There are legitimate reasons to pick New Orleans this year, but history isn’t one of them.

2. The NFC North is the League’s New Powerhouse

Before an angry mob of red-blooded Midwesterners marches up Interstate 94 with pitchforks in hand, let me be clear: I like the North this year. I expect strong seasons from two of the top three teams in the division (Vikings, Packers, Bears), and wouldn’t be surprised to see all three compete for playoff berths.

SI’s Peter King picked the Bears to reach the Super Bowl and labeled the North the league’s “new power division.” ESPN’s Kevin Seifert (admittedly a bit of a homer) tabbed both NFC wild card teams to emerge from the division. And the Packers have become a top-10 mainstay of power rankings far and wide.

Those are some bold predictions for a division that has managed one playoff victory in the past two seasons. And let’s not forget, if the Lions had managed to win even one or two divisional games last year (they came close against the Vikings and Bears), there’s an excellent chance the North would have crowned a 9-7 champion.

Such is the fine line between debating whether the division is football’s best or whether it is among the worst. Throw in a schedule that includes showdowns with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and the road to supremacy doesn’t look so smooth.

Every pundit who waxes poetic about the North begins thusly: “We shouldn’t put too much stock in how teams look during the preseason, but…”

Don’t get suckered in by the “but.” Every contender in this division has serious issues. The Bears need to reverse a major decline on defense. The Packers need to install a new scheme. The Vikings need to install a new quarterback.

Want to witness the quirks of public perception in action? Look no further than the tale of the two birds who battled it out in last season’s NFC title game.

Last year’s Cardinals went 9-7 and made the Super Bowl. Last year’s Eagles went 9-6-1 and just missed out.

Arizona’s offseason was relatively quiet, while Philadelphia’s was punctuated by big gains (Jason Peters, Michael Vick) and big losses (Brian Dawkins, the late Jim Johnson).

So what exactly makes the Eagles a trendy pick to win the conference, while the Cardinals are a trendy pick to lose their own division? Five ESPN writers said the Iggles will make the trip to Miami; eight said the Cards will miss the playoffs.

The hate for ‘Zona stems from the idea that Super Bowl losers are bound to suffer (we’ll cover that myth a little later). The love for Philly stems from an astonishingly short memory.

Halfway through last season, in the aftermath of the 13-13 debacle in Cincinnati, this Eagles team was dead and buried. Andy Reid was hanging on by a thread. Donovan McNabb was on the bench.

Even in Week 17, Philly’s playoff scenario was desperately grim. The Eagles needed to beat the Cowboys and have Tampa Bay lose to Oakland, and Chicago or Minnesota had to lose.

Credit the Eagles for taking advantage of their breaks and putting together a nice run, but be careful not to lionize a team that escaped a very average season by the slimmest of margins, and enters this year with some very substantial losses to overcome.

4. The Broncos Are in For a Brutal Year

It’s not hard to understand why Denver’s stock has plunged in the offseason. A Super Bowl-winning head coach and a rising star at quarterback are out; a 33-year-old wunderkind and a four-year-old rising star at wideout are in.

But the smoke coming out of the Mile High City has been far worse than the fire.

Once you get past the talent drop-off from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton (which is considerable), the Broncos have improved in multiple areas of need. Brian Dawkins, Alphonso Smith, and a healthy Champ Bailey will help a defense that coughed up the third-most points in the league last year. Knowshon Moreno will help an offense that couldn’t find a feature back.

Josh McDaniels could be a stud or a dud, but he only has to be average to match Mike Shanahan’s .500 record over the past three seasons. Shanahan didn’t have any answers when the team fell apart late last year, so in terms of recent history, the bar isn’t all that high.

The Broncos still need a pass rush—then again, they needed one last year, too, and still almost made the playoffs. They still need to see if Orton (or Chris Simms) can be an effective short-term solution at quarterback.

But there’s more talent in Denver than people think. There should be more hope, too.

5. The Super Bowl Loser is Doomed

If the Panthers and Falcons are getting a raw deal thanks to the NFC South repeat nonsense, the Cardinals are taking an outright beating at the notion teams who lose the Super Bowl are bound to fall apart the following season.

As I mentioned before, half of a 16-member panel of ESPN writers picked the Redbirds to stay home for the postseason. People who cover the NFL for a living are lining up to elevate the Seahawks (based on the conviction that last year’s injury-fest was the exception, not the rule) and Niners (based on Mike Singletary’s ability to drop his pants) ahead of the defending NFC champs.

Why? The hangover. The curse. The morning-after syndrome. Listen to some people, and you’d think teams that lose the title game are obligated by rule to sit the next season out in shame. Even I mentioned the phenomenon in my NFC preview, out of sheer laziness (though I didn’t pick against Arizona).

In reality, we’re dealing with another case of mistaking recent history for all of history.

Over the past 10 years, Super Bowl losers have certainly struggled. Just two of them made the playoffs the following year (the 2006 Seahawks and the 2000 Titans).

In the decade before that? Seven out of 10 Super Bowl losers made it back to the postseason. That’s nine out of 20 teams, dating back to 1989. You might as well flip a coin.

Want to make sweeping predictions about this year’s Cardinals based on a historical stat? Look at how 9-7 teams that make the Super Bowl fare the following season.

I’m talking about your 1979 L.A. Rams, of course, who went 11-5 in 1980 to make the playoffs.

If that doesn’t scream “lock” for the Cardinals, I don’t know what does.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the NFL, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Big “O” or Big “No”: A Half-Glassed AFC Preview

It’s early September in the world of football, and that means you’re going to hear plenty of the “O” word.

The Vikings are feeling it.The Lions, Bengals, and Bears are, too. If Bill Belichick had a soul, it would be brimming with unbridled hope for the brave new season to come.

And really, why not? No professional sport offers a better chance at upward mobility. Rosters are torn down and rebuilt on an annual basis. Playoff teams come and go via revolving door. Champions come out of nowhere (your ’99 Rams) and fade fast (your ’02 Bucs).

The downside of taking a sunny outlook into the year, of course, is that there aren’t enough happy endings to go around. While 32 teams get to dream big every year, 31 of them are in for a rude awakening. Twenty won’t make it past the first weekend in January.

So where does your club fit in? If we knew, we’d be riding our own optimism all the way to the sports book at the Wynn.

But we’re more than happy to make it all up. And in the spirit of the season, we’ll prognosticate two sides to every club’s story—one informed by a healthy dose of “O,” and one that ends in resounding “no.”

Today, we’ll predict the divisional finishes in the AFC. On Wednesday, we’ll predict the NFC, and roll out our playoff picks in time for Thursday night’s opener.

The “O”: Brady-to-Moss is back, nobody notices that Seymour guy is missing, and Belichick remains stoic in the face of victory.

The “No”: Brady is back on a stretcher, nobody fills in for that Seymour guy, and Belichick remains stoic in the face of defeat.

The “O”: Mark Sanchez plays like Joe Namath, and Rex Ryan coaches like John Harbaugh.

The “No”: Mark Sanchez drinks like Joe Namath, and Rex Ryan coaches like Buddy Ryan.

The “O”: Jason Taylor waltzes back into form, as Ronnie Brown and rookie Pat White run wild.

The “No”: Taylor shuffles his way toward retirement, the ‘Cat loses its claws, and last year’s turnaround team turns around yet again.

The “O”: T.O. butters Trent Edwards’ popcorn in a honeymoon year, and the act isn’t half as dirty as it sounds.

The “No”: The “Pop Warner” offense that fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert claims Dick Jauron wants to install gets Pop Warner-caliber results.

The “O”: Mike Tomlin does it again, and the sense of accomplishment the typical 37-year-old man feels after mowing the lawn loses a little bit of its luster.

The “O”: Joe Flacco keeps playing catch with Mark Clayton, opposing quarterbacks keep playing catch with Ed Reed, and the Ravens manage to catch the Steelers.

The “No”: Turns out Rex Ryan—not Ray Lewis—was the straw that stirred the drink.

The “O”: Eric Mangini reveals his starting quarterback: A clone grown from a lock of Tom Brady’s chest hair.

The “No”: 2009’s answer to the Super Bowl Shuffle? “I’m Mangini in a bottle, baby.”

The “O”: Jim Caldwell hits the ground running, and Peyton Manning is back in the Super Bowl.

The “No”: Bob Sanders hit the ground wincing, and Manning is back in Super Bowl commercials.

The “No”: It’s discovered that LenDale White was a way better goal-line back while drunk.

The “O”: Maurice Jones-Drew makes fantasy owners across America very, very happy.

The “O”: LT’s groin, Antonio Gates’ toe, and Shawne Merriman’s testimony all hold up just fine.

The “No”: Norv Turner continues his run in San Diego as a Super Bowl favorite by failing to appear in the Super Bowl.

The “No”: Bernard Pollard, cut this weekend, lands with the Raiders in time for a Week Two showdown at Arrowhead, and trips over a blocking Larry Johnson on a blitz. “This is my nightmare!,” a distraught Scott Pioli cries.

The “O”: In an intervention, Elvis (Dumervil) convinces Brandon Marshall not to leave the building.

The “No”: The Seattle Seahawks turn Alphonso Smith into the No. 5 pick in the 2010 Draft.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media. For more on the Vikings, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Vikings-Texans: Five Things We Learned

A preseason football game can be tedious. Instant replay during a preseason football game is downright mind-numbing.

Watching an official climb under the hood to agonize over a call that doesn’t matter in a game that doesn’t count is one of the least enlightening experiences the gridiron has to offer.

Nobody ever claimed that watching three hours of football makes you smarter, but after Brad Childress stopped play twice in Houston on Monday night via red flag, I’m convinced that sitting through a five-minute replay boondoggle during an exhibition game can in fact make you a little bit dumber.

Monumentally pointless challenges aside, however, the Vikings’ third preseason tilt (presumably the one that comes closest to the genuine article) did offer a few bits of wisdom. Here’s what we learned from Minnesota’s not-for-real win:

On Minnesota’s first offensive play of the game, Adrian Peterson broke a 75-yard run for a touchdown.

On the team’s first defensive snap, Antoine Winfield blew up Houston’s Steve Slaton at the line of scrimmage, jarring the ball loose in what looked an awful lot like a fumble.

It’s a pipe dream to imagine the Vikings starting all of their games in a similar fashion, and depending on “home run” plays to score is a risky way to run an offense.

But if you’re an opponent, it has to be demoralizing to watch Peterson disappear in a cloud of dust on one side of the ball, then watch your own back disappear under a mound of purple jerseys on the other.

If you’re a Vikings fan, meanwhile, watching Minnesota seize control of the running game right out of the gate had to be encouraging.

Eleven minutes into the first quarter, the mythical, magical “Wildcat” formation made an appearance. Percy Harvin lined up under center, took the snap, stepped back…and handed off to Peterson for a five-yard gain.

Breathtaking stuff, to be sure. Almost as captivating as watching Harvin rush for two yards out of the ‘Cat in the third quarter, while Brett Favre lined up at wideout and threw a nasty (and illegal) crackback block at Eugene Wilson’s knees, setting Minnesota back 15 big ones.

Not sure the Vikes are going to keep too many defensive coordinators up at night with the one.

Gadget plays notwithstanding, Harvin looked like a promising playmaker who needs to polish the finer points of his game.

On a 3rd-and-6 play late in the first quarter, Harvin ran a quick curl that took him just past the first-down marker, but stepped into the catch to come up short after the tackle. The Vikings had to punt.

On 2nd-and-goal in the second quarter, he slowed down a step too early on a deep throw from Favre, letting six points fall just outside of his fingertips in the corner on the end zone. The team settled for a field goal.

Harvin’s performance on the night—three catches for 31 yards, two carries for six yards—was fine enough. But he was two plays and a few inches away from a much bigger impact. If he can master the little things, he has the chance to impact this offense in a big way.

After 12 days in Minnesota, we probably shouldn’t expect him to be. And with downfield threat Bernard Berrian still sidelined with a hamstring injury, Favre still isn’t playing with a full deck.

But until we see Favre make strong, decisive throws more than once or twice a game, it’s going to be hard to get too excited about what he does for the Vikings offense.

His showing on Monday—13-of-18, 142 yards, one touchdown, no picks—was built largely on checkdowns and lobs to running backs. The ultra-safe stuff makes for a clean stat line, but won’t exactly turn Minnesota’s passing attack into a chain-moving machine.

Favre did offer a few glimpses of what he can really do. With five minutes left in the first, he stepped back and rifled a throw to Visanthe Shiancoe for 11 yards up the middle.

On 3rd-and-7 in the second, he hit Sidney Rice for the first down on a quick slant—and might have fallen into a rhythm of quick throws at that point, had Percy Harvin and Brian McKinnie not wiped out back-to-back completions to Chester Taylor with successive penalties.

Favre doesn’t need to go deep to be successful. But he does need to deliver the ball quickly and with authority. Until we see that on a regular basis, it’s hard to gauge how big of a difference he’ll make.

Last week, the Vikings cut Glenn Holt, signed as kick-return specialist, in the same offseason they signed him.

The second-year man out of Jackson State ran back three punts for a total of 38 yards in Houston, displaying a nifty series of moves to elude pursuit, and generally giving the impression that he was a big play waiting to happen.

Johnson may not catch many passes this year, but if he can keep up the gaudy run-back numbers, he’ll be a valuable asset for a team that averaged 8.0 yards per punt return (No. 24 in the league) last season.

Taylor is already getting a bit of love as a change-of-pace/goal-line back. He’s owned in 78 percent of CBS leagues, and tends to come off the board sometime in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.

But if throwing to the running back is anywhere near as big a part of Minnesota’s game plan as it was on Monday, Taylor might turn into something of a secret weapon. He caught three balls for 41 yards against Houston, including a touchdown, and clearly has an edge over Adrian Peterson as a passing threat.

It’s hard to get too high on Taylor when he’s on the wrong end of a timeshare with a workhorse like Peterson. But if you’re looking for a pass-catching back, Monday’s game suggested that he might be worth a closer look.

No Gambling on the NFL? Now That’s One Wild Fantasy

The NFL doesn’t want you to gamble. Really.

It doesn’t want you to gamble so much that it bars gambling-related ads during broadcasts of games, and reserves the right to ban players and owners who so much as associate with dice-tossing scoundrels.

It doesn’t want you to gamble so much that it sued the state of Delaware twice—first in 1977, then again this year—to kill proposed sports betting laws.

It doesn’t want you to gamble so much that it has a link to gambling news and tips on the front page of its Web site, right next to the league stats and standings.

Just like Captain Renault, I’m shocked—shocked!

Sure, the folks over at NFL.com don’t come out and advertise as much. They don’t label the page in question “gambling resources.”

Instead, they label it “fantasy football.”

If you listen to the league, fantasy football is “a great way to follow NFL action while also competing with your family, friends, co-workers or even strangers for bragging rights.”

A friendly competition with mom, pop, and your buddies, all for fun? It’s just like Scrabble!

Before I go on, let me be clear: I’m all for fantasy football. I’m in four different leagues this season. I love ranking players. I love drafts. I love cursing when things go wrong. Fantasy is right in my wheelhouse.

Do I play for fun? Absolutely. But sometimes that fun comes in the form of a check at the end of the season.

Whether Roger Goodell says so or not, fantasy football is a great way to follow NFL action while angling for some some cold, hard cash. If you pay a league fee and gun for the prize money, you’re gambling.

Think of it as a complex proposition bet that unfolds over the course of the season. When you draft, you’re betting that your team will put up more points than the other guys. If you’re right, you win. The execution is heck of a lot more complicated than laying $50 on the Jets minus three, but the big idea is the same.

Like I said, I’m all for it. Frankly, without a few greenbacks to grease the wheels, deliberating between Hakeem Nicks and Tashard choice in Round 13 isn’t all that interesting. A modest fantasy wager gives a few thrills to otherwise-unremarkable players and games.

From the NFL’s perspective, though, picketing against legalized sports betting with one hand while drumming up support for fantasy football with the other sends a strange message.

Maybe the league believes factors that make traditional gambling so toxic—namely, ties to crime and the risk of fixed outcomes—don’t apply to fantasy football. Maybe the NFL can’t picture a crooked official throwing a few flags to influence Peyton Manning’s passing totals, or a crooked player nailing a star in the knees to sideline him for the year.

But while it may not be as easy to tilt a fantasy league as it is to doctor a point spread, it’s hardly out of the question. Corruption follows money—and there’s plenty of money in fantasy football.

We’re not talking about a hobby where some friends throw in $10 here and there. We’re talking about thriving gambling industry. Tens of millions of people play. Conservative estimates put the amount of fantasy football prize money at stake at about $500 million per season.

There are insurance policies to recoup league fees in case your fantasy studs get hurt. There are million-dollar leagues. And unlike point shaving, shady figures don’t need to alter the outcome of a game to change a fantasy result—they just need to alter an individual performance.

I’m not suggesting that we pull the plug on fantasy football as part of a gambling crackdown. The NFL couldn’t stamp out sports betting if it tried, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that keep gambling illegal and unregulated does more harm than good.

The best the league can do is keep its eyes open and take care of its officials and players, so that no one in a position to influence a game for nefarious purposes is desperate enough to do so.

You can’t fault the NFL for trying to keep gambling off the field. But a crusade against sports betting alongside a marketing machine for fantasy football? That’s a sign of a league in need of a reality check.

This article is also featured on Purple Reign, a part of MTR Media.. For more on the Vikings, follow Marino on Twitter @MarinoEccher.

Items by

Vikings-Ravens: Pass the Defense, Please; and Other Observations

Vikings-Rams: When “Balls Out” Is a Bad Strategy, and Other Observations

Vikings-Rams: After Two Heart-Pounding Weeks, Minnesota Is Due for a Break

A Look at the Greatest Vikings-Packers Games of the Past Decade

Something About These Vikings Still Makes Us a Little Nervous

Don’t Let the NFL Raise Your Kids, Folks

Don’t Start Believin’: Debunking Five NFL Myths for 2009

Big “O” or Big “No”: A Half-Glassed AFC Preview

Vikings-Texans: Five Things We Learned

No Gambling on the NFL? Now That’s One Wild Fantasy

NFL Sport Channel Latest