1. Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald’s utter dominance through the 2008 postseason elevated him to another level. And now, just entering his prime, he’s going to give DBs fits for a long time.

2. Randy Moss

The return of Brady puts Moss right back at the top of fantasy receivers. Although the Pats won’t be as pass happy as 2007, at least 30 TDs should come through the air and Moss will be on the receiving end of many of those.

3. Andre Johnson

Johnson ranks No. 3 on this list because he doesn’t have the passing attack which the top two have. He’s still impossible to cover one on one and even with the increased attention paid him by opposing defenses, possesses the size, speed, and strength to post elite numbers and sit in the top three of our fantasy rankings for receivers.

4. Calvin Johnson

Johnson’s freakish athletic ability is a nightmare for any defense to handle and last year he was a man against boys for most of it. Even in double and triple coverage he still managed to score TDs. Keep an eye on the QB situation as that’s the only thing working against him but he’ll be a top scorer in fantasy football when it’s all said and done.

5. Roddy White

White’s on the verge of stardom and has the luxury of playing with one of the brightest young QBs to ever enter the league, Matt Ryan. Tony Gonzalez’s presence will keep safetys from double covering him and that should translate into a lot of catches and some long TDs.

6. Greg Jennings

Jennings is another top tier receiver entering his fourth season and second with QB Rodgers. The duo quickly developed a nice rapport in 2008 and Jennings became the big-play receiver in Green Bay.

7. Steve Smith

Smith possesses an amazing combination of speed and power and his play making ability is as good as any in the league. The only thing hindering his fantasy success is the run first system he plays in and the inconsistent QB he plays with. But even with that going against him, he’s still the Panthers’ No. 1 passing option and always puts up points.

8. Terrell Owens

T.O. is 35 and beginning to show some signs of his age. But he still keeps himself in phenomenal shape and is difficult in one on one match-ups.   Although his production fell in 2008, he still managed 10 TDs. Now playing in Buffalo, he should quickly become Edwards go to guy and quietly post solid numbers.

9. Anquan Boldin

While still unhappy about his contract situation, Boldin realizes that the best way to command a big pay day is by putting up big time numbers. And in Arizona’s pass happy offense, there’s enough love to go around that he’ll have another chance to do so.

10. Reggie Wayne

Wayne’s clearly Manning’s top guy in 2009 as Harrison is no longer with the club. Last season’s overall drop in production was because of all of the issues along the offensive line and in-continuity on the offense in general. This year that won’t be a problem.

1. Adrian Peterson

Can you say 2,000? Because it could happen in 2009. Entering his third year season, with a solid offensive line to play behind, a new dynamic weapon (Harvin) in town to divert attention from the him, Peterson is poised to blow up.

Now as long as Rosenfels or Jackson can keep defenses honest…

2. Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew finally becomes the man in Jacksonville and is ready to become a superstar. While he’s always been a stellar runner, especially near the goal line, he’ll now see his carries increase to between 20 and 25 per game.

And after Jacksonville went out and upgraded its line in the off-season, everything is in order for a huge season.

3. DeAngelo Williams

2008 was not an aberration. Williams was always highly touted as a former first round draft pick, and he blossomed in his first full season as the starter. The second half of last season was ridiculous: 15 TDs and six 100 yard games.

Even with the carries set to go Jonathan Stewart’s way, Williams is still a top fantasy running back.

4. Michael Turner

Turner proved Atlanta’s GM Dimitroff a very smart man after rattling off 1,699 yards and 17 TDs in his first year in Atlanta. The one negative facing Turner in 2009 is the opposing schedule gets much tougher. But Turner is a horse and Atlanta’s offense is stacked.

5. Chris Johnson

The selection is based on speed, speed, and more speed. Johnson quickly asserted himself as the featured back in the Titans’ system and should take a huge step forward in his sophomore season. He’s a big threat as both a running back and receiver out of the backfield.

6. LaDainian Tomlinson

For those of you who feel that Tomlinson is done, don’t let this opinion deter you from taking him in the latter half of the first round. In an off season by his standards, LaDainian still ran for over 1,100 yards and scored 12 total TDs.

If Norv’s Turner’s run schemes can open up holes in 2009, don’t be surprised to see a 1,300 yard, 15 TD season.

7. Matt Forte

The trade for Jay Cutler immediately raises Forte’s stock, as defenses will now have a passer to contend with. Playing for a team devoid of dangerous outside threats, and behind a big offensive line, Forte will have an opportunity to shine in Chi-town.

8. Steven Jackson

Jackson has the skill and talent to be the number two running back in fantasy football; he just can’t seem to stay healthy, and is also stuck on a poor team. The Rams did draft a future star at LT (Jason Smith) with the second overall pick.

Look for Spagnuolo to rely on the talented back in his first season, and look for Jackson to deliver.

9. Brian Westbrook

Westbrook was slowed by injury in 2008, but still managed a quality overall season with 14 total TDs. This year, the Eagles line is re-tooled and the offense looks stronger than ever. While second round pick Lesean McCoy will ease Westbrook’s workload, No. 36 is the guy who makes the offense go.

10. Clinton Portis

Jim Zorn’s 2008 game plan consisted of Portis, Portis and more Portis. And the eight year vet delivered. With question marks along the offensive line, look for yards to be harder to come by; but Portis’ talent, drive, and his receiving ability out of the backfield will net him a solid season.

1. Drew Brees

Duplicating 2008’s numbers won’t be easy, over 5,000 yards and 34 TDs, but Brees is playing the best ball of his career and the offensive system, and skill players (Colston, Moore, Bush, Shockey), perfectly suit his style.

2. Tom Brady

If Brady’s knee is fully healed, then he’s your top fantasy football quarterback. With an explosive set of skill players (Moss, Welker, Galloway, etc.) at his disposal, only an injury and the bitter late-season cold will be able to slow him down.

3. Peyton Manning

The loss of Marvin Harrison, who was already on his last legs as is, shouldn’t hurt Manning’s fantasy value. He still has Wayne, Gonzalez, and Clark, and factor in two running backs with solid hands out of the backfield and you’ve got a lot of points on the board.

4. Donovan McNabb

McNabb supplants Romo as the top NFC East QB and has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. DeSean Jackson looks poised to take a step forward in year two, the other receivers are steady and a wild card could be Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles top selection in 2009. Factor in Reid’s pass-happy system and Brian Westbrook and there’s a lot to like out of McNabb.

5. Kurt Warner

When you’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin on the outside, and then you throw in Steve Breaston in the slot, what you have is an explosive passing game. The Cards will most likely incorporate the run into the offense more often this season but Warner will still end up with top tier fantasy numbers.

6. Carson Palmer

Provided Palmer is healthy, he’s ready for a huge comeback in 2009. Chad Ochocinco finally has his head on straight, Chris Henry seems to have his life in order, free agent Laveranues Coles is still dangerous and Palmer is one of the most accurate, strong-armed QBs in the game. Great fantasy sleeper value as he sure to be overlooked come draft time.

7. Tony Romo

Romo’s got the talent to end up a top three fantasy QB, but the loss of T.O., both in terms of production and the offensive scheme, is a blow. And there are a lot of question marks as to whether Roy Williams can step-up and be the number one guy. If he can, Romo does well; if not, he’ll still end up a quality starter but not the scorer he was two years ago.

8.  Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers showed in year one of the post Favre era that there would be no drop off in production at the QB position in Green Bay.

In fact, he posted a 4,000 yard season with 28 TDs. With an array of options to throw to including Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson, look for another big season.

9. Phillip Rivers

The run first, pass second days are a thing of the past in San Diego and the Chargers now use the pass to set-up the run. And they do this well.

With fast rising receiver Vincent Jackson on the outside, Gates at TE, and Tomlinson and Sproles out of the backfield, Rivers, who eclipsed 4,000 yards and threw 34 TDs should post another solid fantasy season.

10. Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger will never be a top-tier fantasy QB due to the style of offense Pittsburgh employs, and the late-season weather, but he still finds himself in the top 10. With a plethora of weapons to target (Holmes, Ward, Sweed, and Miller),  look for Big Ben to toss 25 TDs in 2009.

The AFC East features solid defenses collectively, but only the Pats are a top tier fantasy defense.

1. New England Patriots

The Patriots’ D, and in particular at the linebacker and secondary positions, showed its age in 2008 and wasn’t able to execute coach Bill Belichick’s schemes as well as in years past.

Overall, they finished off the season with only 147 fantasy points.

This year, look for a huge turnaround. The offense should be as good as ever and provide the defense to attack the opposing QB.  On top of that, the Pats loaded up on young talent (Chung, Wheatley) in the draft and vets in free agency (Springs) to help out in the secondary and solidify the unit.

And when you add that to a front seven that consists of Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Adalius Thomas, and Jerod Mayo, you’ve got one of the top fantasy football defenses in the game.

Special teams: Wes Welker handled punt returns in 2008, although he’s not much of a threat to break one.

2. New York Jets

After the Jets went out and spent big bucks in free agency prior to 2008, the moves quickly yielded positive returns as the Jets’ D became one of the better units in the game.

They ended up scoring 195 fantasy points.

A new boss is in town, Rex Ryan, and he was the architect of some of the great Ravens defenses of the past few years. His style is aggressive, and he has the personnel to sack the QB (DE Ellis, DT Jenkins) and force turnovers (CB Revis, S Rhodes, LB Harris, etc).

Special teams: Leon Washington is an explosive returner and good for a few scores per season.

3. Miami Dolphins

The Fins had an excellent inaugural season in the Parcells/Sparano regime, and the defense became more disciplined in carrying out its assignments. Overall, they finished with 197 fantasy points.

We don’t expect the same results this year.

Sure, DE Jason Taylor is back and should provide a decent pass rush opposite LB/DE Joey Porter (17 sacks), plus improvement is expected from second year DE Phillip Merling, but the Fins must now face a first-place schedule as opposed to the last-place one from a year ago.

That’s not a recipe for a repeat performance.

Special teams: Ted Ginn Jr. has emerged as a receiving threat, but his bread and butter is still special teams. Look for at least one score in 2009.

4. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are one of the younger defenses in the NFL is actually pretty solid all around. The issues last season stemmed from a few key defensive injuries and an offense that disappeared after Week 7, thus putting the defense in unfavorable situations.

They finished with 148 points.

Things should improve this year. The young defense (McKelvin, Posluszny, Whitner, etc) is now a year older and better, and the offense, with the addition of T.O., sould put more points on the board, which would allow first-round pick Aaron Maybin and the other front seven to attack the QB.

While their intra-division schedule will be tough, playing a last place schedule should help them pad the stats and make them a nice late-round fantasy sleeper.

Special teams: Leodis McKelvin is a dynamic returner who took one to the house in his rookie season. Expect more of that in 2009.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers come out atop this division because their team didn’t suffer any major offseason losses, and they’re poised to make another title run in 2009. Last year, they finished second in fantasy with 260 points.

The usual cast of characters is back for another year (Harrison, Palumalu, Hampton, Woodley, etc.) and the offense that can score and control the clock. Look for the Steelers, featuring LeBeau’s complex blitzing schemes, to once again showcase a dominating defense which creates sacks and forces turnovers in droves.

Special Teams: Shaun McDonald will probably get a crack at special teams after coming over from Detroit in free agency.

2. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens ranked number one in fantasy a year ago with 290 total points. They were simply the most dominating defense in football, blessed with immense talent, the luxury of facing one of the weaker schedules in football.

But there are reasons why we see this unit taking a step back in 2009—although the talent is still there.

First off, they lost coordinator Rex Ryan, and LB Bart Scott to a lesser degree, to the Jets. Second, the schedule will be much tougher this year. Third, if Derrick Mason decides to stay retired, points and scoring will be harder to come by, which will leave the defense on the field alot.

But with stalwarts such as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Hanoi Ngata, and Terrell Suggs still around, even though a drop off in scoring is likely, this still remains a top five defense heading into the season.

Special Teams: Yamon Figures handles returns and might break one in 2009.

3. Cinncinatti Bengals

The Bengals finished off their 2008 campaign with 132 points and a 4-12 record, but their numbers only tell part of the story; playing without Carson Palmer, the team was often on the short end of the scoreboard and the defense was getting worn out late in games.

This year, they could end up an excellent fantasy sleeper pick, as their young talent is only now beginning to come into its own. Rookie LB Keith Rivers missed most of last year after Hines Ward blindsided him; they drafted LB Rey Maulaluga and already have other guys like CB Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph.

And blessed with an easy schedule, this has the makings of an improved season.

Special Teams: Antonio Chatman handled returns but isn’t much of a threat.

4. Cleveland Browns

Things are looking quite bad once again in the Dawg Pound in 2009. A year after posting just a 153 fantasy points, and this coming on the heels of big expectations in Cleveland, Romeo Crennel was ousted and Eric Mangini was brought in to turn the ship around.

But that won’t be easy. After missing out on LB Aaron Curry at pick number five, who went one sooner to the Seahawks, they traded out of round one and failed to land an impact defender in the draft.

And as we all saw last  season, DT Shaun Rodgers and Corey Williams alone aren’t going to get it done. They need some of the younger guys to step up and for the offense to do its part.

Special Teams: Josh Cribbs is one of the best in the game and is capable of returning three or four to the house.

Without it, who’d really watch the 3-10 Browns play the 4-9 Bengals outside of their loyal fanbases in December?

Very few.

But gambling keeps interest levels high.

So what is the best way to pick games using the point spread?

Pro Football 101 uses four factors when deciding which game to pick: teams, a team’s record at home versus on the road, date/weather, and record against the spread.

While the last one isn’t nearly as important as the first three, there are teams who get very hot against the spread, and it’s worth noting as you can bankroll their streak.

The Teams Involved

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Some teams are just better than others, and tend to perform more consistently on a weekly basis. They should always be in the conversation when deciding teams to bet on.

Team’s Record at Home/Road

Most teams in today’s NFL cannot win on the road. For example, the .500 Texans from a year ago were just 2-6 away from home.

If you have a decent team with a horrible road record, don’t be afraid to bet against them, even if who you bet on is .500 or below overall.  The odds are in your favor that the road team will continue to play poorly while your team, playing at home, will step up and cover the spread.

Date/Weather

When and where is the game taking place? Is it early in the season, or after a team has clinched a playoff spot?

When the eventual NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals went to New England late last year, as a seven-point underdog and playing in the cold, they were pulverized 47-7. And by the third quarter, Kurt Warner was out of the game.

It didn’t matter though, because they had already wrapped up the NFC West. So keep an eye on the circumstances surrounding the games, i.e. date, weather, key injuries, etc.

Record Against the Spread

Some teams, whether they’re the favorites or underdogs, have an uncanny ability to cover the spread…while others, who possess solid overall records, aren’t as fortunate.

In 2008, the 2-14 Chiefs were 8-8 against the spread, while the 12-4 Panthers were 8-7-1.

Although they had completely different outcomes to their respective seasons, both returned about the same amount of money to your online gaming account.

So keep an eye on these trends.

Conclusion

As with anything in life, luck definitely plays its part, but if you keep these four things in mind when picking your teams each week, it should greatly increase your chances for success.

1. Tennessee Titans

Yes, the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth will be big, as a man of his size and talent is hard to replace, but it certainly won’t mean an end to this Titans’ defense. Over Jeff Fisher’s tenure, defense has been his backbone, and long before the days of Haynesworth, he was leading his team to a Super Bowl appearance in 1999 relying on this unit.

Last year, in a truly dominating effort, the Titans finished fourth with 246 fantasy points and probably didn’t even go until late in your draft.

This season looks promising as well, although a slight drop off is to be expected. Offenses will now game plan the Titans’ defense differently with Haynesworth in Washington, but in his absence vs. the Steelers last season, then rookie, DT Jason Jones, racked up three sacks. Also, DE Kearse, DE Vanden Bosch, LB Bullocks, CB Finnegan, etc. are still there and the scheme is still one of the top ones in the league.

Special Teams: Mark Jones will handle returns and is steady, but not spectacular.

2. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense thrives when given the lead; when the game is tied or they’re down, it’s a completely different story. And the reason for this is the personnel is quicker and smaller and that style only works when you can pin your ears back (DE Freeney, DE Mathis) and go after the QB. When it’s straight up, the Colts’ smaller defenders get eaten alive against solid running teams. In 2008, the Colts scored 182 points.

This year, look for more of the same, but the potential for an even stronger season. Finishing 12—4, they’re now able to play a second place schedule and Polian drafted DT Moala in the second round to shore up that line. As long as Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Bob Sanders can stay healthy, and throw in CB Marlon Jackson, and the Colts offense continues to do its job, you can expect another impressive showing and a top 10 fantasy football defensive finish.

Special Teams: Pierre Garcon received some opportunities on special teams and is a favorite to land the job again.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Last season was an aberration because the offense didn’t hold up to its end of the bargain. Three and outs left the defense on the field way too long and as a natural result, they wound up towards the bottom of the league with only 117 points.

Things should be different this year and that’s why they’re our fantasy sleeper pick out of this division. The talent is there (DT Henderson, DE Hayward,  CB Mathis, etc.), and blessed with a last place schedule, they should feast on their competition (out of the division) and force sacks and create turnovers in bunches.

Special Teams: Brian Witherspoon handled returns and could score once or twice this year.

4. Houtson Texans

Being last in this division is nothing to hang their head about, and the Texans actually have a pretty good defense, and could be poised to take a big step forward in 2009. After coming out of the gates very slowly in 2008, they finished with just 117 points.

This year they’re a real dark horse in the AFC. Offensively, they possess the firepower to sustain drives and put points on the board, and if their young defense with DE Williams, DT Okoye, CB Robinson and newcomer, LB, Cushing  takes another step forward, there should be ample opportunities for not only sacks, but turnovers.  This could become a nice late round draft play.

Special Teams:  Jacoby Jones is an extremely dangerous return man who took two back to the house in 2008.

1. San Diego Chargers

This is sure to be a controversial selection considering how poor the Chargers’ defense was for the better part of 2008. However, considering they were without their All-Pro linebacker, Shawne Merriman, and they struggled to adjust to Ron Turner at defensive coordinator until later in the season, this is how we justify sticking them at the top of the division. In 2008, they only scored 149 fantasy points.

This season, for all the reasons mentioned above along with the easier division schedule, look for this talented group to rebound nicely and once again become a top-10 fantasy football defense.

Special Teams: Darren Sproles is electrifying and should be counted on to score multiple times throughout the season.

2. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have some real talent on defense, and certainly the premier player in the division, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. The fact that they’re forced to play so many minutes as their offense fails to sustain drives is why they’re ranked No. 2. In 2008, they scored 168 fantasy points.

They have a very good chance to take a step forward this season, but it really depends more on what their offense does than anything else. They’re going to force their share of turnovers regardless, but if the offense can jump out to leads, it’ll allow their front seven to get after the quarterback. That’s when the turnovers begin to come in drives.

Special Teams: Johnnie Lee Higgins is an electrifying return man who took one back to the house in 2008.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs possess a lot of youth on defense and scored just 99 fantasy points in 2008. Playing on a 2-14 team, could we really expect anything more?

This year, they’re a year older and have to learn the 3-4 system. This is why general manager Pioli included Mike Vrabel in the Cassel deal, as he can act the part of a mentor while still making plays on the field.

If they can get defensive end Dorsey to grasp the system, incorporate third-overall pick defensive end Jackson from the get go, and their other players (DE Hali, CB Flowers, LB Johnson, etc.) continue to develop, this could end up a nice late-season fantasy sleeper in 2009.

Special Teams: Dantrell Savage handled returns pretty well in his rookie year and could score in year two.

4. Denver Broncos

There’s absolutely no reason why the Broncos should be on your draft board. As the sole reason for Shanahan’s firing, he was never able to assemble a defense over the last few years of his career. His pathetic unit ranked 32nd in fantasy football and scored an anemic 66 points in 2008.

McDaniels’ first draft focused heavily on defense but that’ll take some time to see results. Despite having star cornerback Champ Bailey and free-agent safety Brian Dawkins, the team lacks a measurable pass rush.

Also, secondaries are eaten alive in today’s NFL because of all the rule changes favoring the offense. Look for another tough year in Denver.

Special Teams: Eddie Royal handled returns in year one and he nearly scored on a 95-yard return. Look for him to do so in ’09.

When looking for a fantasy defense, it’s a wise decision to pick teams in any other division than the NFC West.

1. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks suffered through a long and frustrating 2008 campaign finishing 23rd in scoring with 132 points. A big part of the defense’s decline was the ineptitude of its offense, which suffered through many three and outs and kept the defense out on the field far too long.

This year, Jim Mora Jr. takes over as coach, and defense is his forte.

With the addition of first round choice  LB Aaron Curry  to go along with a pretty good supporting cast (CB Trufant, LB Tatupu), look for a solid rebound by the Hawks in 2009.

Special Teams: if Nate Burleson can come back from his injury, he’s a dangerous returner capable of scoring at any time.

2. San Francisco 49ers

While the Niners  still lack the big bodies inside to run a 3 4 defense effectively, the unit began making strides late last season and showing toughness once Mike Singletary took over. Overall, they finished the season with 122 fantasy points.

This season, with defensive leader Patrick Willis now entering his third year, the year star players typically take an even bigger step forward, look for San Francisco, who will have a more aggressive defensive style on display, to get after the QB and create more sacks and turnovers. This could turn out to be a nice late round fantasy sleeper pick. 

Special Teams: Allen Rossum is a steady returner who scored a TD on a KO last season.

3. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals certainly have some talented young players on defense (Dansby, Rodgers-Cromartie, Dockett, etc.), but the big question is how they’ll respond to the loss of defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast.

In their 2008 Super Bowl season, often blessed with playing with a lead, the Cards managed 166 fantasy points, many coming at the expense of their inferior divisional foes.

It’s going to be a little bit different this year.

They suffered some losses in free agency (DE Smith to the Texans), and appear destined to suffer the Super Bowl jinx.  Having to play a first place schedule, look for a step back in 2009 as competition within the division will be stronger, and the out of conference schedule (AFC South) is brutal too.

Special teams: Steve Breaston handled punts last year and should be called upon to do so again in ’09.

4. St. Louis Rams

It’s going to take more than one season and one draft for Steve Spagnuolo to clean up the mess he inherited in St. Louis, but there are a few promising pieces in place beginning with last year’s number two overall pick, DE Chris Long.

In 2008, in a season which was really over before it began, the Rams scored just 91 fantasy football points.

There won’t be a significant turnaround this season although a healthy RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger would help out. A defense’s best friend is often its offense.

If they can score and control the clock, it keeps defenders fresh and allows them to go after the QB and force the offense into mistakes.

Spags will incorporate his aggressive style into the system but if you find yourself contemplating picking up and starting the Rams’ D this season, you’re probably not expecting to finish in the money.

Special Teams: Derek Stanley was used extensively on returns and averaged nearly 25 yards per kick off.