Dissecting Fantasy Auction Leads To Valuable Drafting Tips

Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class.

I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. It’s not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease.

No, the lesson I found most valuable from the days of AP Biology was a simple mantra for tackling some of life’s great mysteries:

If you want to know more about something, dissect it.

It worked with frogs, lab mice, and even a roadkill coyote my teacher brought in for us to slice apart. Sure, you can learn anatomy and physiology from a textbook and worksheets, but the only way to really understand how something works is to take it apart and, if you can, put it back together.

Fantasy football is no different, and to really stay one step ahead of the competition, it helps to dissect everything from draft results, roster moves, free agent pickups and trade proposals. You can learn about fantasy sports from a magazine or newspaper article, but you’ll never really understand it without doing the real thing and then dissecting it.

Take, for example, the Daily Item fantasy football league. Consisting of league managers from all sorts of backgrounds, professions, and experience levels, the league is made of people who live in the coverage area of The Daily Item newspaper. Each summer, we hold a live auction draft to kick off the new season using a $200 salary cap.

Auction-style drafting is becoming more and more popular, and for good reason. The strategies can be complex and endless. The format encourages people to interact more at a draft and get to know each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Everyone has an equal shot at drafting any player. Plus, another cool aspect is that auction fantasy football drafts are like snowflakes…no two are the same.

With owners ranging in age from nine to the mid-50s, and with varying levels of fantasy sports experience, the Daily Item league draft was an interesting experiment in auction mentality.

As a way to better understand the chaotic science of auction drafting, let me take a few moments to dissect this draft (with 12 teams) on a team-by-team, and strategy-by-strategy basis (I won’t cover every team, but will discuss some of the main strategy elements).

 

Seth:

The epitome of hard-line auction drafting, Seth went into the draft with a short list of specific players he wanted and wasn’t swayed when the bidding got hot and heavy. He honed in on Frank Gore, and didn’t back down until he bought the San Franscisco RB for $45.

He then pounced on Brian Westbrook and bid like a pitbull bites, not letting go until he got what he wanted…in this case, Westbrook for $40. Considering that Brandon Jacobs went to a different team for $46 and many of the other higher-end RBs went in the high-40s to low-50s in price, the Gore-Westbrook combo wasn’t a bad buy.

Seth used similar determination in landing Peyton Manning for $37, and wasn’t swayed when Tony Gonzalez’s value kept climbing past the $20 plateau. In fact, Seth stiff-armed the Gonzo competition with a quick, unexpected $40 bid that left many in the room scoffing. When you take a hard-line approach to an auction draft, you run the risk of other owners purposely running up the values of certain players that they know you really want.

Regardless, Seth walked away with a really solid starting roster with just one concerning area moving forward: his receivers and bench depth are all dollar-basement investments. By carefully watching the waiver wire for emerging WR talent, and if his starters can avoid injuries, Seth could be a season-long contender.

Jason:

Focused on running backs and RB depth (the league starts two RB, no flex), Jason developed his team around a nucleus of three strong halfbacks in Michael Turner ($57), Clinton Portis ($35), and Kevin Smith ($28).

Of course, that depth and peace-of-mind at RB came a cost, literally, leaving Jason just $80 to fill out the rest of his roster. He invested $36 in his starting QB (Aaron Rodgers), which turned out to be about the going value for a player of Rodgers’ talent level…although the next tier of QB mostly went in the mid-20s.

Needing value WRs to fill out the starting roster, Jason went with DeSean Jackson ($13) and Lee Evans ($11). An $8 investment in Owen Daniels left Jason with a competitive team that is a breakout WR short of being a possible title contender.

Jake:

Looking at investing heavily in his fantasy starting corps at RB and WR, Jake landed a value in Maurice-Jones Drew at $51 (Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson went for $61 and $60, respectively).

He followed with Reggie Wayne at $40, Ronnie Brown at $29 and Dwayne Bowe at $26.

What hurt Jake’s team somewhat was that he was helping run the auction spreadsheet and got into the bidding action late in the draft.

While there was an incentive for those who finished with the most leftover salary cap money (waiver order was based on leftover cash), Jake was in a position where solid QB options were few and far between. He left the draft with dollar QBs Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell, but also left $26 on the table. While that was good enough for top waiver priority heading into the season, it also left him questionable at QB.

Jeff:

Employing a “shotgun” approach to the auction draft, Jeff peppered bids throughout the afternoon, developing a roster filled with balance, but also lacking knock-out power players. His most expensive player was Marques Colston ($30), followed by  $23 for Kurt Warner, $22 for Derrick Ward, $20 for Antonio Gates, $17 each for Marshawn Lynch and TJ Houshmanzadeh, $15 for Beanie Wells, $13 for Vincent Jackson, and $11 for Knowshon Moreno.

Jeff got some good deals and has an incredibly balanced and deep roster. On the flip side, deciding weekly matchups could be quite stressful with so many players around the same talent level.

Also, he could struggle during non-bye weeks against rosters with less depth, but a higher-priced group of starting players. Of course, drafting a team filled with good bargain players could make Jeff a go-to target for league owners who are hoping to wheel-and-deal.

 

Rick:

One team that Jeff may struggle to match up with during non-bye weeks is Rick’s. Focused on developing the strongest starting nucleus possible, Rick was the only owner to pounce on three $40 players in Steve Slaton ($49), Drew Brees ($41) and LaDanian Tomlinson ($40).

He filled out his primary starters with Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco (both at $18). At $21, Joseph Addai provides some insurance for an aging Tomlison and a $6 investment in Jay Cutler as a backup QB was a great value. At this point, Rick was forced to fill out the roster with dollar players, which could possibly leave him susceptible during bye weeks and depending on possible injuries.

John:

My team fell into a rut I’m familiar with at auction drafts.

My strategy is always to wait in drafts with the hopes that owners will break their accounts early and good value players will fall between the cracks; however, I always get burned on a player early in my drafting, and this time it was Matt Schaub, who I love as a sleeper this year, but found myself stuck in a bidding binge that left me with a $25 Schaub when other similar upside QBs went for less (Kurt Warner for $23, Matt Ryan for $20).

This bidding war left me gunshy for the next several rounds of bidding, and I found myself in too many bidding wars with other owners who procrastinated in the draft and were scrambling for starters.

In spite of this, I was happy with snagging Calvin Johnson ($39), Roddy White ($28), and Jason Witten ($18) at what I felt were really good values. Of course, this left me a decent amount of money, but no real backs to stake my claim to (Steve Slaton was still on the table, and I wimped out when Slaton went for $49…in hindsight, I should have went for it).

I wound up spending $58 total on Ray Rice, Willie Parker, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Bernard Scott, and LeRon McClain (who I since dropped for Willis McGahee). That total would have been much less if someone hadn’t been bidding me up on Mendenhall, knowing I needed him to handcuff to Willie Parker (I wound up blowing $19 on Rashard), but still left $11 on the table.

Combining that total with the $28 I blew on Parker-Mendenhall, I could have gotten someone with more upside as an RB1 (like Clinton Portis, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber, etc.).

So, let’s recap the lessons learned from this fantasy league dissection…

1. Go into your auction draft with a plan.

It’s OK to target certain guys that you feel will have a big season, and it’s OK to overpay somewhat on them if you feel you can create the best possible starting lineup. Just be careful not to tip your hand too much since there are guys in every league that would love to watch you overspend on “your guy.”

2. There’s a fine line between drafting a killer starting unit while neglecting your bench and drafting a team with super depth, but lukewarm starters.

Pinpoint certain players you feel will be good value players and target them to represent your depth (guys like rookies i.e. Moreno ($11), Wells ($15), or Percy Harvin ($8), up-and-coming players—like Ray Rice ($15), and guys in improved situations—Trent Edwards ($10)).

3. Players taken earlier in the draft (and I’ve seen this in most every auction draft I’ve played in) seem to go cheaper than those left until late.

Seems that more people than you’d imagine are procrasting drafters, while owners who take risks early get some good bargains. For example, Greg Jennings was one of the first players bid on, and went for $33. That’s just a hair more than Marques Colston ($30) and Dwayne Bowe ($26), who are lightyears behind Jennings on my rankings chart.

4. Have a list of players at every position who have good upside, but should go for $5 or less.

If you do fall into a trap and spend more than you were hoping for at some point or another, this will give you solid fallback options. In the Daily Item league, players such as Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Hakeem Nicks, Donnie Avery, Fred Taylor, Bernard Scott, Brett Favre, Earl Bennett, John Carlson, Zach Miller and Brent Celek all went for $5 or less and each could perform at a really good value.

5. Don’t plan on wasting any more than a dollar or two on your kicker or defense.

Steven Gostkowski went for $3, and most kickers went for a buck. Defenses went for a little more (by a dollar or two), but there are plenty of viable options at defense that weren’t even drafted.

What are your auction draft tips? Did you draft recently and want your team/league dissected? Drop us a line and find more hard-hitting ninja action at www.chinstrapninjas.com

 

Ninja Prediction: Sleeper Wide Receivers You Want on Your Roster in 2009

Anyone who has drafted already can tell you that the middle-to-late-round wide receivers are as appealing as being a high school janitor during the peak of flu season.

No one in their right mind can, and should, feel good about staring Laveranues Coles or Deion Branch as their No. 2 wide receiver—or even to rely on them for spot starts off the bench.

Yet, there are some pass-catchers that always seem to fall between the cracks at many drafts. These are guys you can nab late who could produce some big numbers at a critical point for you this season.

Here are the two I’m targeting the most this summer.

 

Receiver sleepers

Bold Prediction: QB Who Will Take 2009 Fantasy Scene by Storm

I could take time to drool all over my 2009 QB love affair with Matt Schaub. I could call him a sleeper, but let’s face it…he isn’t.

It seems that everyone is targeting him in the middle of their respective drafts.

A true sleeper is a player that comes out of no where to become a fantasy beast. Anquan Boldin could tell you all about being a sleeper. He’s the Rip Van Winkle of fantasy sleepers.

So, it is time to step up and take a stand. It is time to represent chinstrap ninjas (www.chinstrapninjas.com) everywhere by treading where others fear. It is time to throw down and make projections and not look back.

Remember a certain six-foot-something QB who was drafted in the top five overall? Remember said QB, who many felt wouldn’t be more than a bench-warming, clipboard-holding backup for at least the first half of the season.

You know, that QB who was drafted by a team with a steadily improving defense, a solid running game in transition and a receiving corps that was fairly untested and unknown in the grand scheme of things.

No, not Mark Sanchez (I’ll get to him in a minute). I’m talking about Matt Ryan. Remember what the fantasy magazines had to say about Ryan last year? You don’t? That’s because they had little to offer. Many projections had Ryan producing behind fellow rookie signal callers such as Joe Flacco.

An archive search of the message board at www.fantasyfootballcafe.com turned up several rankings where Ryan was slated well below a bunch of quarterbacks (such as JaMarcus Russell and Troy Smith) who majorly underperformed.

So when people write off New York’s Mark Sanchez with similar quickness, I hesitate. The USC product was stellar as a Trojan, finishing his college campaign with 413 yards passing and MVP honors in the Rose Bowl—the yardage was the most for a USC quarterback since now-Bengals QB Carson Palmer threw for 425 against Notre Dame in 2002.

Like Matt Ryan did last summer, Sanchez has been impressive in preseason practices and games. There is little doubt that as long as Sanchez continues to mature as a QB over the next couple weeks, he’ll be starting the season atop the Jets depth chart.

Sanchez has an adequate arm and plenty of QB smarts to make a successful jump to the NFL level. However, what has impressed me so much this summer is his swagger. His mojo.

Tons of rookie quarterbacks with vast potential, skill sets and football know-how have crashed and burned at the NFL level. What most of them lacked, however, was the leadership and confidence that Sanchez has exhibited from day one as a Jet.

Sure, the Jets receivers aren’t exactly star-studded—however, the Falcons had a somewhat similar cast of unknowns when Ryan took the reigns last year. Roddy White had plenty of potential, but no consistency or big-stat contests until Ryan started feeding him the pigskin.

The Jets receivers may not be well known, but they don’t lack in talent. In college, Jerricho Cotchery broke numerous receiving records—including several set by Torry Holt—and is still one of just two pass-catchers in the ACC with both 200 receptions and 3,000 yards.

David Clowney is the epitome of unknown potential in the NFL, but did you notice his three-catch, 102-yard (with a TD) performance last week in preseason action? What about uber-talented tight end Dustin Keller—who was drafted in the first round last season by the Jets?

What about the Jets aggressiveness in going after big-name receiving talent such as Boldin, Plaxico Burress and now Brandon Marshall? It is only a matter of time before the Jets make an acquisition that makes Sanchez’s receiving options that much sexier.

With a much-improved defense behind him and a solid mix of veteran and rookie talent at RB (Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and Leon Washington), Sanchez doesn’t need to carry the Jets on his back. He can make the throws he needs to and mature as QB much like Ryan did last year.

While I wouldn’t count on him as more than a QB2 with major upside this year in redraft leagues, he’s a hot commodity in dynasty and keeper leagues, and rightfully so. I predict that he’ll outperform fellow rookie Matthew Stafford, along with a number of NFL starters this year.

In fact, I feel that Sanchez will be the starter on a number of fantasy football teams by the end of this season and could crack the top 15 fantasy QBs in overall scoring.

Also, after years of trying to find a franchise QB to rightfully succeed the legend known as Joe Namath, I feel the Jets have finally found their answer.

Who is your true QB sleeper for 2009? Let me know at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Don’t Be a Sucker: The Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends For 2009

Once while on a family vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tenn., I saw the sign and had to investigate.

A large painting of a giant chicken with fangs poking out of its beak accompanied some text. In big, blocky bold letters, it read: COME SEE THE MAN-EATING CHICKEN!!

Not being in an oppositional defiant mood that day, I obliged.

Sure enough, peeking into the window, I saw it … and was instantly mad at myself. I had fallen for the play on words. I was a sucker.

In the room was an obese dude gnawing on a chicken leg. He was a man eating chicken. Hardy stinkin’ har.

Many businesses stake their marketing dollars in tabloid-esque catchphrases. The idea is to catch us off guard … to break the norm and make us believe they know what they’re talking about just because they defied the status quo and did or said something out of the ordinary.

When it comes to your fantasy football rankings – especially for tight ends this year – don’t be one of those people who fall for the cutesy off-the-wall rankings from the “experts.” Don’t be a sucker.

Case in point: one fantasy football publication has Greg Olsen as its top fantasy tight end for 2009.

Yes, Olsen stands to improve significantly with Jay Cutler under center — and he’ll present a decent value pick this year in most drafts – but to name him the best fantasy tight end in football for 2009 is pretty much the same as saying that little green aliens have impregnated Oprah Winfrey – you know it isn’t true, but you can’t help but read further.

What makes the Olsen claim even more outrageous, in my opinion, is that tight end rankings this year are so cut and dry, especially at the top of the heap.

The top 10 fantasy tight ends, in order, include:

1. Jason Witten

Hands down, the top tight end choice. Anyone who tells you differently is crazy.

With Terrell Owens off to Buffalo, Witten will be the center of the offense. Roy Williams primary job will be keeping defensive pressure off Witten.

Already in practice, the Cowboy brass have lined Witten up all over the field, as tight end, as a primary receiver, etc.

Yes, Witten’s numbers weren’t as impressive as Tony Gonzalez’s last year, but remember that Witten was injured for part of the season and never got his feet under him properly upon returning. That won’t be the case this year.

Even with the missed time, Witten finished with 81 catches, almost 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. Consider that Indy’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, finished the 2008 campaign with 82 receptions, just over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.

Expect much better things out of Witten in 2009.

2. Tony Gonzalez

The G-man was incredible last year with the Chiefs, but also remember that he was the only offense the team could muster.

He finished with 96 receptions, 1,058 yards and an amazing 10 touchdowns. Look closely at his TD totals however, and you’ll notice that he scored just five each of the previous two years – and that was when the Chiefs had other offensive weapons.

Yes, Tony Gonzalez will benefit from the move to Atlanta, a hot young QB and plenty of offensive support.

But remember, too, that he’ll have to learn a new offense, complete for looks and watch Michael Turner get carry after carry late in the game when the Falcons are running out the clock … something that didn’t happen last year in Kansas City when the Chiefs were airing it out often in catch-up situations.

3. Antonio Gates

Antonio consistently produces much less yardage and overall receptions than either Tony or Jason each season – what bouys Gates’ stock are his TDs.

He’s scored eight or more TDs each of the last three seasons and there is no reason to think he’ll slip any this season.

If he was a bigger part of the offense outside of the red zone, than we’d have to consider bumping up a notch in the rankings, but for now, Gates is the third best option this year.

4. Dallas Clark

Many think Chris Cooley belongs here, but Clark had just one less yard receiving than Cooley last year, and five more touchdowns.

Sure, Cooley will score more TDS in 2009 than in 2008, but Clark is also primed to keep improving, especially with Marvin Harrison out of Colts-land and Clark lining up in the slot and taking catches up the middle.

He is Peyton Manning’s security blanket. Enough said.

5. Chris Cooley

As mentioned before, Cooley’s visits to the endzone were about as few as my visits to Disneyland in 2008.

However, Cooley scored eight times the year before and six times in 2006.

He is QB Jason Campbell’s personal friend, and with Santana Moss fighting Father Time, Cooley should see more looks this year.

6. Owen Daniels

My Sports Illustrated magazine has Daniels ranked 11th among tight ends – behind guys who had less than half as many catches than Daniels in 2009.

Daniels accumulated 70 receptions last year, easily more than anyone outside of the five listed above.

He also registered 862 yards, more than everyone except Witten and Gonzalez.

This was all with top QB Matt Schaub playing in only a fraction of the games due to various injuries and Sage Rosenfels calling the shots.

The Texans offense is primed to be an explosive unit this year, and Daniels will be a fixture of that movement.

7. Kellen Winslow

Kellen spends more time on the IL than I do on the internet.

However, he hasn’t lost his vast talent, and is starting fresh this year with a new team.

Tampa Bay has committed to using Kellen as the center of its offensive attack, and considering the lack of true explosiveness in the Tampa passing game outside of Winslow, I expect Kellen to have his best season as a pro.

However, his tendency to get injured keeps him from ranking higher on this list.

8. Greg Olsen

The Bears have one of the most talented young tight ends in the game, and they finally have a QB that can get him the ball consistently.

Olsen’s massive size (6-5, 252 pounds) will translate into red zone opportunities and it isn’t as though the Bears have a lot of other receivers who deserve extra looks from Cutler.

9. Kevin Boss

The Giants are in need of big guys who can catch the ball consistently in the red zone.

Yes, they drafted some nice rookie receivers, but Eli Manning already has some confidence in Boss.

The tight end started his rookie campaign slow last year, but accumulated 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs in the final eight games of 2008.

With some extra maturity in the passing game, expect 2009 to be a solid season for Boss.

10. John Carlson

Tough selection here between Carlson and Miami’s Anthony Fasano, but Carlson is much younger and has a better QB heading into 2009.

As a rookie last year, Carlson was the passing game’s lone bright spot after a slew of injuries wiped out the Seahawks receiver stable.

He finished with 55 receptions, 627 yards and five TDs.

TJ Houshmanzadeh and Deon Butler will require some of Matt Hasselbeck’s attention this year, but Carlson should continue to be a solid source of stats.

For more quality fantasy advice, tap into your inner ninja at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Don’t Be a Sucker: The Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends For 2009

Once while on a family vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tenn., I saw the sign and had to investigate.

A large painting of a giant chicken with fangs poking out of its beak accompanied some text. In big, blocky bold letters, it read: COME SEE THE MAN-EATING CHICKEN!!

Not being in an oppositional defiant mood that day, I obliged.

Sure enough, peeking into the window, I saw it … and was instantly mad at myself. I had fallen for the play on words. I was a sucker.

In the room was an obese dude gnawing on a chicken leg. He was a man eating chicken. Hardy stinkin’ har.

Many businesses stake their marketing dollars in tabloid-esque catchphrases. The idea is to catch us off guard … to break the norm and make us believe they know what they’re talking about just because they defied the status quo and did or said something out of the ordinary.

When it comes to your fantasy football rankings – especially for tight ends this year – don’t be one of those people who fall for the cutesy off-the-wall rankings from the “experts.” Don’t be a sucker.

Case in point: one fantasy football publication has Greg Olsen as its top fantasy tight end for 2009.

Yes, Olsen stands to improve significantly with Jay Cutler under center — and he’ll present a decent value pick this year in most drafts – but to name him the best fantasy tight end in football for 2009 is pretty much the same as saying that little green aliens have impregnated Oprah Winfrey – you know it isn’t true, but you can’t help but read further.

What makes the Olsen claim even more outrageous, in my opinion, is that tight end rankings this year are so cut and dry, especially at the top of the heap.

The top 10 fantasy tight ends, in order, include:

1. Jason Witten

Hands down, the top tight end choice. Anyone who tells you differently is crazy.

With Terrell Owens off to Buffalo, Witten will be the center of the offense. Roy Williams primary job will be keeping defensive pressure off Witten.

Already in practice, the Cowboy brass have lined Witten up all over the field, as tight end, as a primary receiver, etc.

Yes, Witten’s numbers weren’t as impressive as Tony Gonzalez’s last year, but remember that Witten was injured for part of the season and never got his feet under him properly upon returning. That won’t be the case this year.

Even with the missed time, Witten finished with 81 catches, almost 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. Consider that Indy’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, finished the 2008 campaign with 82 receptions, just over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.

Expect much better things out of Witten in 2009.

2. Tony Gonzalez

The G-man was incredible last year with the Chiefs, but also remember that he was the only offense the team could muster.

He finished with 96 receptions, 1,058 yards and an amazing 10 touchdowns. Look closely at his TD totals however, and you’ll notice that he scored just five each of the previous two years – and that was when the Chiefs had other offensive weapons.

Yes, Tony Gonzalez will benefit from the move to Atlanta, a hot young QB and plenty of offensive support.

But remember, too, that he’ll have to learn a new offense, complete for looks and watch Michael Turner get carry after carry late in the game when the Falcons are running out the clock … something that didn’t happen last year in Kansas City when the Chiefs were airing it out often in catch-up situations.

3. Antonio Gates

Antonio consistently produces much less yardage and overall receptions than either Tony or Jason each season – what bouys Gates’ stock are his TDs.

He’s scored eight or more TDs each of the last three seasons and there is no reason to think he’ll slip any this season.

If he was a bigger part of the offense outside of the red zone, than we’d have to consider bumping up a notch in the rankings, but for now, Gates is the third best option this year.

4. Dallas Clark

Many think Chris Cooley belongs here, but Clark had just one less yard receiving than Cooley last year, and five more touchdowns.

Sure, Cooley will score more TDS in 2009 than in 2008, but Clark is also primed to keep improving, especially with Marvin Harrison out of Colts-land and Clark lining up in the slot and taking catches up the middle.

He is Peyton Manning’s security blanket. Enough said.

5. Chris Cooley

As mentioned before, Cooley’s visits to the endzone were about as few as my visits to Disneyland in 2008.

However, Cooley scored eight times the year before and six times in 2006.

He is QB Jason Campbell’s personal friend, and with Santana Moss fighting Father Time, Cooley should see more looks this year.

6. Owen Daniels

My Sports Illustrated magazine has Daniels ranked 11th among tight ends – behind guys who had less than half as many catches than Daniels in 2009.

Daniels accumulated 70 receptions last year, easily more than anyone outside of the five listed above.

He also registered 862 yards, more than everyone except Witten and Gonzalez.

This was all with top QB Matt Schaub playing in only a fraction of the games due to various injuries and Sage Rosenfels calling the shots.

The Texans offense is primed to be an explosive unit this year, and Daniels will be a fixture of that movement.

7. Kellen Winslow

Kellen spends more time on the IL than I do on the internet.

However, he hasn’t lost his vast talent, and is starting fresh this year with a new team.

Tampa Bay has committed to using Kellen as the center of its offensive attack, and considering the lack of true explosiveness in the Tampa passing game outside of Winslow, I expect Kellen to have his best season as a pro.

However, his tendency to get injured keeps him from ranking higher on this list.

8. Greg Olsen

The Bears have one of the most talented young tight ends in the game, and they finally have a QB that can get him the ball consistently.

Olsen’s massive size (6-5, 252 pounds) will translate into red zone opportunities and it isn’t as though the Bears have a lot of other receivers who deserve extra looks from Cutler.

9. Kevin Boss

The Giants are in need of big guys who can catch the ball consistently in the red zone.

Yes, they drafted some nice rookie receivers, but Eli Manning already has some confidence in Boss.

The tight end started his rookie campaign slow last year, but accumulated 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs in the final eight games of 2008.

With some extra maturity in the passing game, expect 2009 to be a solid season for Boss.

10. John Carlson

Tough selection here between Carlson and Miami’s Anthony Fasano, but Carlson is much younger and has a better QB heading into 2009.

As a rookie last year, Carlson was the passing game’s lone bright spot after a slew of injuries wiped out the Seahawks receiver stable.

He finished with 55 receptions, 627 yards and five TDs.

TJ Houshmanzadeh and Deon Butler will require some of Matt Hasselbeck’s attention this year, but Carlson should continue to be a solid source of stats.

For more quality fantasy advice, tap into your inner ninja at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Veto Power: A Guide to Evaluating Pending Fantasy Football Trades

A little word, yet so much power.

Veto, or the act of nullifying a bill or action, is eerily similar to the word “vote.”

Fitting, since in many fantasy football leagues, you may be asked to vote to either veto or approve a pending trade at some point this season.

But, as Peter Parker says in the Spiderman movies, “With great power comes great responsibility.”

Trade vetoes have led to some serious fantasy league controversies, and even torn some leagues apart.

Therefore, the power of veto should never be taken lightly. However, it also shouldn’t induce an ulcer.

Here are some tips on handling pending trade approvals in your league, while keeping your sanity intact:

1. Before you do anything else this season, take a moment to double-check your league’s pending trade approval process.

This procedure varies from league to league. In some leagues, the commissioner has sole power of veto. He/she will decide whether a trade is kosher, or if it requires some extra research. In other leagues, this process is left up for league review (or voting).

2. When a trade is approved by both teams involved, and is up for approval, don’t panic. Ask yourself a simple question…does the trade seem equal to you for both teams involved? If so, approve the deal and move on. End of story.

3. If you have some concerns about the value of players exchanging teams, than you need to consider if there was any collusion involved (collusion is when a team in your league knowingly trades away more value than it receives as a way to help out another owner).

At this point, the only thing you should worry about is the collusion factor. One red flag of possible collusion includes if both owners involved in the trade are family members or really close friends.

Another involves looking at the standings…is one team tanking its season to help another gear up for a playoff or championship run? Is either owner acting weird about the trade (pushing for a quick approval or getting more involved in league discussions than he/she did previously)?

4. If you are concerned about collusion, share those concerns with the commissioner. A fair next step is to request that both owners involved publicly defend why they accepted the deal. If both can convincingly defend their actions, than approve the deal and forget about it.

5. If either owner does not respond in a stated amount of time, or offers a pathetic excuse for the deal, than the commissioner and league needs to discuss the next line of action—In all fairness, the deal is suspended until enough evidence can be collected that the trade was made without collusion concerns.

Notice that throughout all of this, I didn’t recommend approving or vetoing a trade based solely on your opinions of whether or not it was fair. As far as I’m concerned, this is ways too subjective to be a determining factor for trade approvals.

For example, let’s say last season someone in your league attempted to trade Joseph Addai or Larry Johnson straight up for DeAngelo Williams or Thomas Jones right after your draft.

In every draft and every ranking heading into the 2008 season, both Addai and Johnson were ranked well ahead of Williams and Jones. If you were someone who vetoed trades because they seemed one-sided, than the Addai-for-Williams deal would have never went through.

Except, we all know how things wound up last year. Williams and Jones smoked Addai and Johnson in fantasy production.

Killing a pending trade just because you may not see the value of both sides kills any chance for an owner take risks and try to build an empire. It is sort of equivalent to fantasy communism.

So, when push comes to shove, the only true way to evaluate a pending trade is through the litmus test of collusion—nothing else.

Keep it simple, and your fantasy experience will be much more fun.

For more fantasy sports advice, channel your inner ninja and check out

www.chinstrapninjas.com

Fantasy Football: Three Sleepers You Can’t Afford to Sleep On

It’s 1 a.m., and all I can think about is sleep.

Not sleeping, mind you, but sleepers.

For those who lack the lingo of fantasy sports, sleepers are players who you feel will greatly outproduce projections heading into the season. They are players that you can acquire at a solid value.

Identify and draft (or trade for) several sleeper players, and you’ll have plenty of ammo to survive your fantasy football season and make some noise in the post-season.

Every fantasy site—and every fantasy manager—has his own list of sleepers. Check out as many as you can, compare notes and watch for trends.

Usually, the best sleepers are players who find themselves in the right place at the right time. They can be rookies who excel in a new system, a player who is traded into the right situation or an aging player that other fantasy owners have written off.

Now, I’m the type of guy who likes to go against the grain at times. You can read all about “sleepers” like Steve Slaton (who I expect good things from this season), Fred Taylor, and Anthony Gonzalez in a different post at a different time.

Instead, I present to you three of my ”off-the-beaten-path” sleeper picks:

 

QB: Matt Schaub, Houston

Those who know me know that I’m obsessed with Schaub as a super QB value. What’s not to like about Schaub? He’s got a young, yet steadily improving defense to help keep games in hand.

He’s got a young, yet steadily improving running back who loves to catch the ball out of the backfield and make some noise in the trenches (Steve Slaton, for those who didn’t already know).

He’s got arguably the best receiver in the game to throw to (Andre Johnson) and many people seriously undervalue both WR Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels.

Schaub was fantasy gold last season when he played. In those games, he ranked sixth in overall fantasy performance, was fourth in yards per game and was in the top eight in TDs per game played.

The only thing standing between Schaub and fantasy stardom is a tendency to get banged up.

However, the Texans O-line is an underrated group that continues to improve. If Schaub can stay healthy all season, I will put my reputation (what little I have) on the line in saying that Schaub performs as a top-five fantasy QB.

Now imagine getting that late in your draft, after filling your roster with studs at other positions.

 

RB: Chester Taylor, Minnesota

Again, I could have rattled off a number of value picks here, but I wanted to dig a little deeper. Chester Taylor is currently backing up Adrian Peterson with the Vikings.

On the surface, there may not seem to be much point in drafting Taylor onto your fantasy team. Except that Taylor, when getting his share of carries, can still produce.

He finished last season with just a hair under 400 yards rushing—and another 400 yards receiving—with a total of six TDs in spot duty.

Adrian Peterson is a stud back, but many wonder about his long-term durability, especially when considering how hard he runs each time he touches the ball. I am predicting that he will be hampered by some sort of injury this season at some point.

Many feel that Peterson will see a reduction in carries this season as the Vikings attempt to keep him fresh for a possible playoff run.

Odds are also lining up that Brett Favre will be QBing the Vikings this year, which will open lanes for the running game.

Also, the Vikings have a cupcake schedule—especially for the first third of the season. Lastly, many don’t realize that Taylor, this year, is an unrestricted free agent.

His 2010 payday—and where he plays next season—will depend solely on how well he performs this year. You would be very wise to snag Taylor late in your respective drafts and stash him away for a rainy day.

 

WR: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh

Again, there are a lot of potential options here, but Holmes has all the makings of finally taking his game to the next level.

Reports from the Steel City relay that Holmes has bulked up in the off-season in preparation to be a more physical presence on the field. Nate Washington has left Dodge, and Holmes will see even more targets as a result.

Overall, I would not be surprised to see Holmes double his TD total from last year (5) and finish the season as an elite option.

For additional fantasy advice, check out ninja nation at www.chinstrapninjas.com.

Ripples From Vick Dogfighting Story Continue To Spread

Before we outdoorsy people like your’s truly chastises Sports Illustrated’s John Rolfe for his anti-hunting online column (August 21, 2007), I should at least give him the benefit of the doubt, right?

Perhaps he has a point.

In his “Getting Loose” column, Rolfe applauds the NFL in regards the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal. He (and PETA, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) say that while the NFL did the right thing in this case so far, it should go further, making a blanket policy that outlaws any cruelty to animals. Rolfe points at Jonathan Babineaux (accused in February of beating his girlfriend’s pitbull, which later died) and Thomas Hammer (accused in 2001 for beating his dog) as examples.

He then suggests that this new blanket policy could include other versions of animal cruelty, such as hunting. He makes a point that NFL players who take part in hunting should be sanctioned similarly to Vick.

For those who don’t agree with Rolfe (and his PETA cronies) that hunting isn’t cruel, he explains:

“Don’t think that widely-accepted recreational activity is cruel? That deer or rabbit that just had a shell or arrow put into it and crawled off to bleed to death in the brush will beg to differ, as will the buffalo, boar, elk and more that are sitting ducks in enclosed areas on so-called ‘canned hunt’ farms. And if you go by PETA’s standards, fishing is a no-go, too. Think that bass enjoys that hook in the roof of its mouth while it’s hauled gasping out of the drink?”

Deep stuff. Why stop there, Mr. Rolfe?

While we’re at it, let’s ban all NFL players who eat meat. Forget about Bambi getting shot in the woods—at least Bambi got to experience a little freedom before his demise. What about all the beef cattle that are raised strictly for meat, standing knee-high in manure? (I know this isn’t the case at most farms, but then again, most true hunters don’t leave rabbits and deer to suffer in the bushes. If Rolfe can make unfair stereotypical generalizations, why can’t I?).

Let’s also ban all NFL players who wear clothes made of wool or leather or other animal-based substance. Those animals were all miserable during their lifetimes at various farms, too, I’m sure. (Again, some unfair stereotypical generalizations).

Let’s ban the NFL players who drive cars, or ride in cars (or limos). The leather-based seats and other animal-based products in cars are nothing when compared to the animals who are killed, maimed, and tortured on America’s highways, not to mention affected negatively by automobile pollution problems. I don’t have official figures, but I’d bet there are exponentially more animals injured by automobiles each year in this country than by hunting.

Let’s ban all the NFL players who fly in airplanes to games or anywhere. How many birds have been victims of airplane collisions? What about all the animal habitat that was ruined in the building of America’s airports and runways?

Speaking of habitat, let’s ban all NFL players who live in a home. Animal products involved aside, homes destroy animal habitat. Wetlands, trees (for wood building supplies), and even pastures are destroyed every day across the country as more and more new homes are built. Forget about the inconvenience of a hook in the roof of a bass’s mouth. Destroying habitat is much more cruel than fishing.

While we’re at it, let’s ban all NFL players who use medicine or any item developed from animal byproducts. Let’s ban players who use oil-based products, so that less oil is needed and less wells are drilled, less pollution finds its way into our waterways and less holes wind up in our ozone layer. What about those who use paper or other wood-based items that take away, again, from the trees in our ecosystem?

If we really want to go all the way, why don’t we ban any NFL player who breathes? They leave behind less oxygen for all the little critters in our great outdoors, which might be a little too stressful for the animals in our ecosystem.

Then again, why do we look at NFL players under such a high-powered microscope? Do we expect them to be role models for the rest of us? If that’s the case, let’s arrest every person who violated an animal, whether intentional or not.

Trying to relate the atrocities of dogfighting—a legitimate cruelty-to-animal crime—to hunting is like comparing Paris Hilton to Mother Teresa. There is no real comparison.

What Rolfe, and many of the PETA ranks, seem to forget is that the freedom of speech they practice in complaining about hunting is no more valuable than the freedom and rights of hunters to practice their trade.

I agree that there are many “hunters” who tarnish the image of what we hold dear. Canned hunts, being unsafe and unethical in the woods, etc., only fuel the fire of people like Rolfe.

And with that, Mr. Rolfe does share a powerful message for each of us in his column: That more than ever, hunters need to take their trade seriously, or we may all be banned from a way of life.

Fantasy Football: One Mistake You Want to Avoid on Draft Day

First, a little brain teaser.

You are going to take a seven-day trip to the beach. Checking the long-range weather forecast, six of the days will be sunny and hot. Not a cloud in the sky. The other day will bring steady, heavy rain. As you finish packing, you realize you only have room for one more item. You are left with sunscreen and an umbrella. Which do you take along?

Now, you may be wondering what this has to do with fantasy football. Bear with me. It’s my poor excuse of an illustration on why I hate—no, loathe—certain age-old fantasy drafting axiom.

You see, there are certain fantasy football experts who live and die by the ‘rule’ that you never draft two of any starter with the same bye week. Their mantra is that you must closely watch possible bye-week conflicts and draft accordingly.

Therefore, for example, if you are drafting eighth out of a 12-team league, and you happily draft Frank Gore at spot 1.08 — you better avoid any other running back with a Week 6 bye. So, in the second round, at pick 2.04, you aren’t allowed to draft Ronnie Brown, Marion Barber or Joseph Addai.

Yet, why handicap yourself? If you feel that Ronnie Brown is easily the most talented remaining player when you draft in the second round of said imaginary draft, than why not take him? Why not anchor your team with the best running back tandem possible?

Why not choose the sunscreen?

You see, in the illustration above, the decision between sunscreen and an umbrella is simple. Are you willing to sacrifice one day out of your vacation to improve the other six, or do you fixate on the one day of rain in the forecast, take the umbrella, and then miss out on extended hours of basking in the sun for most of the trip?

It’s much the same way in fantasy leagues. Why limit your team 13-out-of-14 regular season games just so you don’t have two players on the same bye week? Why reach for Reggie Bush or Brandon Jacobs if you feel that Ronnie Brown or Marion Barber is the far superior pick?

Those who consider themselves fantasy experts are all about rules for drafting the perfect team. As if they are trying to justify their own existence, they write catchy fantasy columns listing tips and ideas and suggestions and strategies on how to kill the competition on draft day.

And as your next draft pick nears, you get ulcers in your stomach and pull clumps of hair from your head as you wade through the countless barrage of tips and strategies, trying frantically to narrow down the selection.

However, it is all so simple. When drafting, simply choose the best player available that fills a need on your roster.

End of story.

Sure, glancing at bye weeks can be a helpful tool later in your respective drafts if you don’t want to lose three bench spots picking up a backup tight end, kicker ,and defense for a one-week fill-in. But then again, in most cases roster spots usually become available over the course of the season as sleeper picks fall into comas and certain players catch the injury bug.

The bottom line is to walk into your draft ready to have fun, ready to select the best player available that fills a need, and ready to bask in the sun of knowing that you chose the best possible team without regrets or hesitations.

Oh, and don’t forget the sunscreen.

For additional timely fantasy advice, tap into the fantasy ninja nation at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Favre Should Come Back in 2009

I grew up watching the Rocky movies. My father, a boxing guru, watched, analyzed and re-watched every one of the Rocky movie offerings. He memorized lines. He even caught a few mistakes — like the southpaw Balboa signing an autograph at one point with his right hand.

The Rocky saga, in my opinion, follows a definite pattern. The first two movies were theatrical gold. Rocky III, with Hulk Hogan and Clubber Lang, was a major joke. Rocky IV, the battle with Ivan Drago, the training montage, elevated the franchise back into respectability. And then there was Rocky V … perhaps one of the worst sports movies of all time.

It might be a bit of a reach to consider Brett Favre’s New York Jets experience last year on par with Rocky V, but it definitely was a major disappointment. The question, of course, is whether or not Favre is truly considering his days in Jetsland as the final chapter of his career, or if he thinks he has enough gas in the tank for one final re-write.

Most people are tired of the annual Brett Favre saga — the dance of whether or not he will play again or finally retire for good. As a lifelong Packers fan, and a lifelong Favre fan, I agree with that sentiment. Last year’s circus leading up to the August signing with the Jets was a mess. People have a right to be disgusted with Favre and his indecision after that media headache.

Favre’s 2008 season headed south right around the same time the biceps in his throwing arm tore. Yes, he’s old, but he still produced during the first-half of the season with the Jets. He was really solid — and that was throwing to a mediocre receiving corps highlighted by an aging Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey. A player doesn’t somehow age overnight and become statistically inept — his downfall was tied directly to the injury.

Now, Minnesota is calling. The Vikings provide an instant opportunity for Favre to not only succeed, but to have one realistic shot at a Super Bowl ring. The team is stacked with talent — both defensively and offensively. Favre’s never played on a team with a back as talented as Adrian Peterson. Bernard Berrian, in my opinion, is an immediate upgrade over any of the receivers the Jets had on the field last year. The Vikings even added some flash in rookie receiver Percy Harvin.

Whether or not Favre wants to get revenge on Cheesehead Nation is irrelevant, in my opinion. The Vikings provide him an opportunity to write a successful final chapter to his career. If Favre is a little more emotional and motivated to play well when playing against his old team, it isn’t a bad thing for him or the Vikings. Favre has always responded well in emotional situations — including his magnum opus performance on national television right after the death of his father.

I also don’t understand why the Packers would balk at the opportunity to play Favre twice this year. If they feel that they have the best QB (in Aaron Rodgers), than why not finally get some closure by giving Rodgers and the rest of the Green & Gold an opportunity to prove it on the field? A pair of wins over a Favre-led Vikings team would do wonders for the Packers organization moving forward.

The Vikings, of course, have a lot to gain in a deal with Favre, as well. Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson would backup QBs on most every other roster. Favre gives the team clout in a division that has seen a large spike in QB talent this offseason (Jay Cutler to the Bears, Matthew Stafford to the Lions). He also will help fills seats in Minnesota, and bring in plenty of revenue. He also gives them the best chance to capitalize on their Super Bowl-ready potential. In fact, if Favre signs with the Vikings, I predict they not only make the playoffs, but wind up in, at minimum, the NFC championship game. If Trent Dilfer can dink-and-dunk his way to a championship ring (like he did in Super Bowl XXXV), than Favre certainly has it in him — especially if he gets to hand off a majority of the time to Peterson. Heck, at the very least, Favre will have momentum on his side. The Vikings open the season against Cleveland, Detroit and San Francisco before a Monday night game hosting the Packers (you can be sure that Favre will rise to the challenge). Minnesota then plays the Rams in week five. A 5-0 record to start the season isn’t too far-fetched.

For Favre to be successful with the Vikings, however, the following points need to be addressed first:

1. Favre’s torn bicep needs to be healthy. There is talk that Favre would consider surgery to speed up the recovery if necessary. Either way, it was obvious last year that Favre needs his arm to be healty if he wants to succeed. If there is any doubt about the arm’s status, than Favre should go back to his Wrangler commercials and riding his John Deere.

2. Favre needs to sign quickly. People will be more forgiving if Favre doesn’t turn this potential return from retirement into a media circus. Plus, Favre needs the extra time with his potential new teammates — building better inter-team relationships will only benefit him and the rest of the team on the field. It will also get him in camp earlier and in better shape to start the season.

3. Favre needs to be totally certain that he can beat the Packers at least once during the regular season. If not, he may be better served staying in Mississippi.

Overall, as long as the torn biceps isn’t an issue, I expect Favre to officially come back with the Vikings sooner rather than later. In fact, I’d be surprised if something isn’t finalized within the next week or two.

The critics are many this time, and rightfully so. Similarly, there were more than ample critics of Sylvester Stallone when he announced the filming of “Rocky Balboa,” saying that Stallone was beating dead horse, that he should leave well enough alone and that another Rocky movie — especially at his age — would ruin his legacy. However, “Rocky Balboa” wowed the critics and Rocky aficionados alike. The movie’s storyline mirrored the rise from criticism that Stallone faced in producing it. Favre has it in him for one final sequel worth watching.

Sure, a return to the NFL is risky for Favre, but then again, making risky moves was what defined his career. I don’t understand why people think he’ll somehow take the safe, less-exciting option this time around. Doing so wouldn’t be Favre-esque.

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