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The NFL’s 10 Most Efficient Wide Receivers
Published: July 11, 2009
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Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald . . . all game-changers. They make the highlight catches, they produce the eye-popping stats, they catch the media’s and the fans’ attentions. They’re the big play makers, and in that right, are the best in the game. But oft overlooked are the unspectacular receivers who keep their offenses going by consistently catching the balls thrown to them.
Deciding to take a look at the stats, I created a rather sophisticated formula in which to measure a receiver’s efficiency, or in other words, ability to most consistently catch any balls thrown to them. As a backbone stat, I calculated the Reception Percentage of all NFL receivers with a reception count above 50, based on last year’s statistics. The Reception Percentage is the percentage of passes targeted to them, i.e. thrown to them, in which they caught the ball.
I then took the twelve receivers with the highest Reception Percentages and further broke down statistics that would influence the players’ Reception Percentages. I took two additional statistics into account – their respective quarterbacks’ accuracy percentage, and their strength of schedule.
For the Quarterback Accuracy Percentage, I would simply take out all attempts and completions involving the respective player from their quarterback’s stats and then calculate the quarterback’s accuracy. A higher accuracy would deem worse for the player, as a player with a more accurate quarterback would get easier passes to catch – and thus a higher Reception Percentage.
For the strength of schedule stats, I would calculate the average passing completion percentage that opposing teams’ defenses would allow (Ex. – If player A played Team A and Team B, I would see what completion percentage Team A allowed to Teams A’s opposing teams and then average that with Team B’s completion percentage allowed to their own opposing teams). In other words, the better the pass defenses that a player faced, the lower the Strength of Schedule Percentage. I only calculated (into the average) teams in which the specified receiver played against (no teams that played the receiver’s respective team while the receiver was injured or not playing for any other reason).
So, overall, I took into account three factors: the percentage of passes thrown towards the receiver that the receiver caught, the accuracy of the quarterback throwing to the receiver, and the toughness of the receiver’s opponents’ pass defenses. To calculate the final rating I took each player’s Reception Percentage and subtracted the average of their Quarterback Accuracy Percentage and Strength of Schedule Percentage from it (think of the QAP and SoSP average as how well he “ought to do” in his given situation). For example, a player who caught 70% of the passes thrown to him yet had a poor quarterback with a QAP of 50% and faced extremely tough defenses who, on average, allowed only a 50% completion percentage, the player would obviously be an extremely efficient receiver, warranting his incredibly high rating of 20.0 (70 – 50 =20).
After calculating each of the twelve receivers’ Efficiency Ratings, I ranked them accordingly and took out the bottom two to create a list of the top ten most efficient receivers in the league. Get ready to be surprised. Be prepared for a shock. Names will be mentioned that you may not know, names will be absent that you may have expected! Ladies and Gentlemen: The Top Ten Most Efficient NFL Receivers!
Why Steve Slaton is the Next Fantasy Stud
Published: May 20, 2009
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If you are looking for the next fantasy surprise star, just look down south. Steve Slaton of the Houston Texans shows all of the signs of an upcoming fantasy star.
We will look at him at a fantasy, statistical, and logical level. Let’s start with some stats.
In his rookie season, Steve Slaton posted over sixteen hundred total offensive yards, nearly 1,300 of which were rushing. He played on a team with a weak defense and acted as nearly the sole running back for the team.
What makes the feat even more impressive is how well he did considering his conditions. Following a season where the Texans’ star running back had only 773 rushing yards, Steve Slaton nearly doubled the yardage, all as a rookie. Slaton played under a weak and inexperienced offensive line that hardly were an asset to him.
Now let’s compare Slaton’s rookie season to a few other running backs that we know. Slaton worked for an average of 4.8 yards per carry (the same average as Peterson for 2008), a better average than the average of the rookie seasons for Ladainian Tomlinson (3.6), Marshall Faulk (4.1), and Matt Forte (3.9). Quite impressive!
Wait, wait wait, you say. What about the other rookie stars who posted much higher averages in their first year? Why leave them out? What about players like Adrian Peterson and Barry Sanders?
Well, we have to remember that Slaton played under a poor offensive line, though it will improve as years pass. Peterson, for example, played behind two pro bowlers in his 2007, rookie season.
Steve Slaton displayed consistency and endurance throughout the 2008 season. Four of his last seven games of the season were 100+ yard games. His average for rushing attempts 21 through 30 for each game was an amazing 8.7 yards per carry. This came as a surprise to some who saw him as too weak to take the beating as a starting running back.
Now let’s look at Steve Slaton at a fantasy level. He was one of the most consistent producers for all fantasy players last year. Ranked seventh of the running backs at the end of the season,11 of his 15 injury-free games were above ten points (ESPN standard scoring).
In fact, he had less single digit point games than Adrian Peterson, excluding non-started games.
Finally, let’s think this through logically. After posting such a consistent, surprising, and amazing rookie season, Steve Slaton can only go up. With Andre Johnson stretching the field, Slaton should get open lanes and few men boxes to run through.
With an offensive line that is gradually getting better and better, and with a team that is now at a playoff level, Slaton should flourish.
Expect Slaton to continue his consistency throughout this year and beyond. He will exceed his milestones of 2008, and I expect he won’t just rise to sixth or fifth of the running backs. I fully expect Steve Slaton to be a top three fantasy running back in the next couple of years.
So when you are at your draft, don’t pass him up. Think hard about him as a late first rounder, and definitely snatch him as a second-rounder.
