Fantasy Bust Alert: Thomas Jones

Thomas Jones proved to be a steal last year, coming up with big numbers after a disappointing 2007 campaign. He finished with 1,312 rushing yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns.

That will likely cause some owners to make a stab for Jones as early as round two come draft day 2009, but don’t be that person!

Here are a variety of factors that tell me you are better off letting someone else take the veteran at that point:

AGE—He will be 31 years old this season, and that is the age where running backs typically begin to see a significant dip in their production.

QB SITUATION—Say what you want to about Brett Favre, but his presence in the pocket forced opponents to respect the pass. That helped open up running lanes for Jones to go through. With Kellen Clemens and rookie Mark Sanchez likely to battle for snaps, look for defenses to stack the box.

COMPETITION FOR CARRIES—Leon Washington was already a factor last year as a change-of-pace back, and will get an increased look this season. Also, the team invested a draft pick in Shonn Greene, who appears to be the running back of the future. Many expect Greene to get a crack at some goalline carries, which would obviously hurt Jones’ chances of approaching last year’s touchdown total.

CONTRACT ISSUES—Jones is in the final year of his contract and had threatened to hold out. The Jets could still trade him and even if the don’t, if the season were to slip away the team would definitely less likely to keep atop the depth chart as it is unlikely they will re-sign him.

NEW REGIME—Rex Ryan takes over for Eric Mangini as the team’s head coach. Though they both are defensive-minded, run-first coaches, expect some changes to take place.

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TELLING STAT—When Brett Favre’s arm injury popped up down the stretch of the season and the team’s passing game went south, so too did Jones’ numbers. Over the team’s last four contests in ‘08, Jones mustered just 224 yards on 57 carries (3.9 YPC) and two scores. With the quarterback situation a big question for the Jets, it’s not too tough to imagine similar struggles to start this season for Jones.

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FINAL TAKE—After totally ripping Jones in this post, it’s hard for me to recommend him. However, I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. If he slides into round four and you already have a solid RB1, QB, and WR1 locked up, Jones may not be a bad option for a RB2 in deeper formats.

Even in Round Four as a RB2, I can still find a handful of other players with more upside that I would prefer. It doesn’t matter too much though as I don’t see him lasting that long in most drafts.

Randy Moss: Fantasy Spotlight

It was just two years ago that Randy Moss helped re-write the record books, catching 24 touchdowns as the Patriots rolled through a perfect season.

Moss, who was hands down fantasy’s top wideout at this time last year, suffered a bit of a setback in 2008 after Tom Brady went down in Week One to a season-ending knee injury.

There’s no doubt Moss still has the potential to be fantasy’s top wideout. At 32, there is still enough gas in the tank and he’s always had the speed, size, and athleticism to cause havoc for opposing defenses.

However, with the emergence of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson, it’s hard to justify putting Moss atop the wide receiver rankings to start the season.

Even without Brady last year, Moss still caught 69 balls for 1,008 yards (14.6 avg) and 11 touchdowns.

It took some time for adjustment, but Moss eventually developed some chemistry with backup Matt Cassel.

Consistency was the biggest problem as Moss only scored in seven of his 16 contests and only produced four 100-yard games. When he did produce it came in bunches, though.

His value in points-per-reception leagues took the biggest hit a year ago as he finished with 29 fewer catches than the previous season.

With Brady looking to be near 100 percent, the question remains: Will Moss come closer to last year’s numbers or approach the 2007 totals?

Assuming both he and Brady stay healthy in ’09, fantasy owners should anticipate the production to be somewhere in between. 

One factor that is likely to go overlooked is that the team no longer has as much depth at receiver, meaning Moss and Wes Welker are going to get plenty of targets to be productive.

Expect 90 receptions for about 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns. If those numbers hold true, Moss will be a steal as early as Round Two on draft day.

Fantasy Football: Where Do They Fall?

The 2009 Fantasy Football season promises to be one of the tougher seasons to prognosticate in some time.

Several factors, ranging from players coming back injuries to guys on new teams and even those that had their teammates leave, will make it challenging for owners to accurately determine their rankings.

Here are just a few examples of players that I am still trying to figure out where they fall when I release my first Cheat Sheet in early July.

 

 

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (NE)—After a record-setting 50-touchdown 2008 campaign, Brady went down in Week One last year and was lost for the season.

It’s hard to put him ahead of Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, but he’s still an elite quarterback when healthy and will likely fall between Rounds 2-4 in most leagues.

 

Carson Palmer (CIN)—Like Brady, Palmer’s 2008 season was cut short by injuries. The shoulder appears to be 100 percent, but the offensive line still has question marks.

He did lose his top wideout, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, in free agency. He’s no longer a sure-fire top five fantasy quarterback, but the potential is still there and that makes him a nice mid-round sleeper pick.

 

Matt Cassel (KC)—He played like a starting fantasy quarterback last season throwing for 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns.

However, a move from New England to Kansas City leaves a ton of question marks. Cassel is a borderline starting option with a decent amount of upside, likely to be left out in my top 10 though.

 

Running Backs

 

Maurice Jones-Drew (JCK)—Fred Taylor is finally out of the picture and it is MJD’s show to run in Jacksonville. He’s never been asked to carry the load, but his nine scores in the team’s final nine games last year gave owners a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Jones-Drew is a top five pick and there could be a strong argument for him being No. 2 overall behind Adrian Peterson, particularly in PPR formats.

 

DeAngelo Williams (CAR)—He had a breakout season rushing for 1,515 yards on 273 carries (a 5.5 avg.) and catching 22 passes for 121 yards (a 5.5 avg.) while scoring 20 total touchdowns—18 rushing.

The presence of Jonathan Stewart should be concerning, but not enough to knock him out of the first round. He could fall anywhere after the third pick overall and should deliver with a contract year on the horizon.

 

Derrick Ward (TB)—After rushing for 1,025 yards on just 182 carries (5.6 ypc) last year with Giants the promise of an increased role in Tampa Bay’s offense is appealing.

The biggest question mark will come with the role of the Bucs’ incumbent running backs—Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams. Ward could emerge as a decent RB2 if he can increase his scoring output and shoulder the bulk of the load.

Look for him to go between Rounds 6-8 in your draft.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Terrell Owens (BUF)—Once considered fantasy football’s top wideout, Owens slid down the rankings last season after scoring just five times in the Cowboys’ last 11 games.

Now he finds himself in a new home in Buffalo. While the upside is there for him to be a legitimate WR1 once again, you should treat him more like a WR2 on draft day.

Aside from playing with a new QB and in a new system, there is also the weather factor of cold weather home games in Buffalo that need to be considered.

 

Brandon Marshall (DEN)—The disgruntled receiver is facing a suspension and will now be without Jay Cutler. There is no questioning Marshall’s talent, but the threat of a holdout doesn’t help his cause.

Throw in questions of a hip injury and there is just too much baggage for Marshall to crack the top 10 in my rankings.

 

TJ Houshmandzadeh (SEA)—Only Wes Welker has had more receptions than Houshmandzadeh over the past few years, but a new team raises some questions. The early indication is that he has developed good rapport with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.

Expect him to finish as a top 15 wideout once again and draft accordingly.

 

Tight Ends

 

Tony Gonzalez (ATL)—Gonzalez was productive once again last season and now finds a new home in Atlanta.

He should fall in the draft after guys like Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark go off the board. However, the Falcons’ system suits him well and Gonzo clearly has the potential to be the top player at the position once again.

 

Kellen Winslow Jr. (TB)—The Browns got tired of Winslow’s attitude and consistent trip to the infirmary, so the traded him to Tampa Bay.

The Bucs covet the talented playmaker and a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered. The quarterback situation is bleak and coupled with his durability questions Winslow should fall.

Don’t hesitate to take him anytime in Round 8 or later, the upside is there.

 

Greg Olsen (CHI)—Olsen is going to be one of my top sleeper picks heading into the ’09 season.

The arrival of Jay Cutler to the Windy City takes the Bears’ passing attack to another level and Olsen could prove to be his most reliable target.

Bengals Beat: Chad Ochocinco Shows Up

In a bit of surprise move, Chad Ochocinco showed up to the Bengals’ OTAs on Tuesday, a week earlier than expected.

He took a physical, then participated in his first voluntary workout with the team since 2007.

After being quiet for most of the offseason, the disgruntled wideout has been talking quite a bit over the past week.

Bengals.com reported that Ochocinco spoke briefly with head coach Marvin Lewis last week and Monday was the first time he spoke with starting quarterback Carson Palmer since the end of last season.

“I need the fans to embrace me. I know people are mad at me. I read the message boards, but I’ve apologized 85 times,” Ochocinco said. “If they can embrace me, I can spread my wings and be myself. When they’re mad at me, I don’t know if I can be myself. I’m an emotional guy.”

He admitted that he came into last season without doing much conditioning and that lead to him getting hurt and being unproductive.

This year he’s been working out much harder, including taking up boxing. He feels he’s in the best shape of his life, but knows that he needs to get his timing down on the field.

“I’ve been training hard, but today I was rusty. Because this is a whole different dynamic,” he told reporters. “I’m rusty in football skills, not my shape. A day or two, maybe Thursday, I’ll be a lot better than I was today.”

Ochocinco is attempting to bounce back from his most unproductive year since his rookie season. He mustered just 540 yards and four touchdowns.

HALL FACING SUSPENSION: Despite having his DUI charge reduced to a misdemeanor charge of reckless operating of vehicle last week, cornerback Leon Hall could still face a suspension in the upcoming season.

“Yes, he is still under review for potential discipline,” NFL spokesperson Greg Aiello said last week. “Pleading to a lower charge doesn’t prevent you from discipline.”

The league is expected to review the case more thoroughly in advance to season.

BOOMER OPTIMISTIC: Former Bengals’ quarterback Boomer Esiason was in town last week for Boomer’s Big Bang, a two-day sporting clays pro-am event at the Elk Creek Hunt Club in Owenton, Ky. to benefit the Boomer Esiason Foundation for cystic fibrosis research.

He took time out to talk about the Bengals with reporters and appears to be optimistic for the 2009 season.

“With the three wide receivers they have, and the quarterback they have, they can be as exciting as the Cardinals offensively if they get things rolling right,” Esiason said.

QUICK HITS: It doesn’t appear that the Bengals have much interest in free agent Greg Ellis, who was released by the Cowboys last month. The 34-year old linebacker’s asking price is too high and the team appears set to let rookie Michael Johnston develop.

Wide receivers coach Mike Shepppard spoke highly about Chris Henry and his commitment this offseason. “His whole approach and work ethic is unlike any time since I’ve been here,” receivers coach Mike Sheppard said.

Linebacker Keith Rivers is just one of many heads that rookie running back Barnard Scott is turning. Rivers recently compared Scott to the Titans’ Chris Johnson, who broke out last year as a rookie and helped lead to Tennessee to a NFL-best 13-3 record.

Changes Ahead in Cincinnatti Bengals’ Offense

It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out that when your team finishes 4-11-1 that changes need to me made.

The Cincinnati Bengals wiped the slate clean this off-season after a disappointing 2008 campaign and had as much player movement as any year during the Marvin Lewis’ era.

Offensively, the team needs to find answers after finishing dead last in the league in total yards and total points, 29th in rushing yards, and 30th in passing yards.

Prior to 2008, the Bengals finished in the top seven in passing for three straight seasons and in the top 10 of total offense in each of those years.

Obviously getting quarterback Carson Palmer back and healthy is paramount to the team’s success. Palmer, who was limited by injuries to just four games a year ago, has looked impressive thus far in the team’s mini-camps and appears to be near 100 percent.

“We’ve got some issues to deal with but any time you’ve got a guy like Palmer at quarterback you can turn it around very quickly,” offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski said earlier this offseason.

If Palmer is going to produce the team will need to keep him upright. They allowed 51 sacks in ‘08, the third most in the NFL.

Retooling the offensive line was a big priority for the Bengals heading into the 2009 season. Right guard, Bobbie Williams, is the only starter remaining for 2005’s division championship team.

They spent their first-round pick, the sixth overall, on Alabama offensive tackle Andre Smith. The team is hopeful that the 6-foot-4, 340-pounder can slide into right tackle and anchor the position for years to come.

Anthony Collins and Andrew Whitworth are expected to share time at left tackle, with Whitworth having the ability to move to left guard.

The play at center is going to be an important factor. Second-year man Kyle Cook, who has not played a single NFL-snap, currently sits atop the depth chart.

Keeping pressure off of Palmer is important, but so is establishing a running game. Success inside the AFC North always comes down to two things—moving the football on the ground and stopping the run on defense.

“We’re going to try to stretch the backers and mess with them a little bit,” Cook said of the changes ahead for his year in the team’s run-blocking schemes. “Give them the flow and give them different looks in the backfield with the tight ends. Kind of add another notch to our game.”

Bratkowski, who is entering his ninth season in Cincinnati, also knows that the time to mix up the running game has arrived.

After being known as a pass-first offense during the past few years, head coach Marvin Lewis has instructed Bratkowski to focus more on running the football.

“He wants us to be a more physical team that runs the ball better and uses more play-action,” Bratkowski told the team’s website. “Run it so we can play-action it and throw the ball downfield. That’s the direction he wants to go.”

Another key component is establishing a power-running game is getting good play at fullback.

The team re-signed veteran Jeremi Johnson, who they cut last season after he came to camp out of shape. It is unclear if he’ll be able to make it back. That would leave the Bengals with a pair of unproven players at the position, rookies Chris Pressley and Fui Vakapuna.

Cedric Benson, who signed with the Bengals four games into last season, is firmly entrenched as the team’s top running back after Cincinnati parted ways with former first-round selection Chris Perry last month.

Benson signed a two-year, $7 million deal this off-season. He led the Bengals with 747 rushing yards in 2008, including back-to-back 100-plus yard efforts in the season’s last two weeks.

The team also made a rare player-for-player trade when they sent defensive lineman Orien Harris to St. Louis in exchange for Brian Leonard. Although he played some fullback last year for the Rams, the Bengals envision Leonard more as a running back.

He possesses the versatility that the team covets as a change-of-pace runner and will allow the team to open up the playbook a bit. Leonard has shown some flashes of brilliance when given the opportunity for the Rams over the past two years and is the front-runner to win the backup job.

Veteran Kenny Watson, second-year back James Johnson and sixth-round pick Bernard Scott will battle it out for their spots on the roster.

During Palmer’s first four seasons, the team had 40 passes of at least 40 yards. Yet last season they managed just two and none until the last day of November. Establishing a running game should open up the passing game.

“We have to adapt. We don’t have the same personnel we did. We have to look at ways to use what we have,” Bratkowski said.

The biggest transition for the offense this season is likely to be in the passing game.

Gone is Pro Bowl wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who signed with Seattle as a free agent.

The Bengals brought in veteran Laveranues Coles to replace him in the offense, opposite of Chad Ochocinco.

Coles has lined up early on as the Z receiver, the wideout that is usually on the tight end side.  There are fewer sight adjustments and fewer blitz breakoffs at that spot. In addition, there is a larger blocking role in the strong-side running game.

Bratkowski doesn’t see too much difference between the Z and the X spots, the receiver on the other side. He feels Coles can play anywhere in the system.

“Things become more difficult or complex when you go inside; it’s a different game,” Bratkowski stated.

The Bengals are also hopeful that Chris Henry can make some positive contributions this season. He has stayed out of trouble for nearly 14 months and appears to finally be dedicated to being a football player.

Henry would be the biggest beneficiary of the team’s increased emphasis on setting up the play-action pass. Of his 107 career receptions twenty have gone for 20-plus yards and eight more for 40 plus yards.

Second-year players Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson, along with veteran Antonio Chatman, will compete to round out the receiving corps.

The newest wrinkle that could help resurrect the Bengals’ passing attack is how they use a tight end.

The team brought in pass-catching tight end Ben Utecht as a free agent after the 2007 season. However, an early chest injury sidelined him early and without Palmer under center the team did not have a chance to incorporate him into the system as expected.

In addition, the team landed tight end Chase Coffman out of Missouri late in the third round of April’s draft. He slid in the draft due to a foot injury that caused him to miss the combines, but he’s expected to be ready for training camp.

Coffman, who was recognized as the nation’s top tight end winning the Mackey Award, caught 83 passes for 920 yards and 10 touchdowns as a senior. He has a knack for making amazing catches and could help fill the void of an over-the-middle option left by Houshmandzadeh’s departure.

“He brings us that big-time receiving threat as a tight end, and we are excited about that,” Lewis said.

The Bengals’ offense can only get better this season. The talent is definitely there and the unit has undeniable upside. There are plenty of question marks too, but they have a real chance of returning to a top-ten offense. Only this time the route to get there could be a bit different.

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