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Oakland Raiders: Fee, Fie, Fo, Fum, We Really Should Have Won
Published: January 8, 2010
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“Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum,
I smell the blood of an Englishman,
Be he alive or be he dead,
I’ll grind his bones to make my bread.”
The Baltimore Ravens are named for the poet Edgar Allen Poe who was born in America and had his early education in England. Poe’s poem, The Raven, is a favorite in American literature classes. It’s a poem about a bird; its a poem about depression, I believe.
The Oakland Raiders are named for a more fierce and aggressive presence. The Raiders are the pirates who sometimes have a bird on their shoulder.
The Raiders were established years before the Ravens. The Ravens started in 1996, and it is one of the youngest NFL teams. Two others, the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaquars are one year younger than the Ravens.
And here is my poetic chant:
Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum, Last Sunday we should have won!
Not exactly as good as Edgar Allen Poe, but I made my point! Huh?
There are so many “what ifs” this season. Many variables are at play in the game of professional football.
Injuries took their toll on the Oakland Raiders, and we ended up tumbling down the beanstalk like the giant in “Jack and the Beanstalk.”
When you look at the numbers for wins and losses, there were as many “swings” in the curve for the Raiders as there were for the Ravens.
The bird flew back and forth; the pirate stumbled up and down.
Now, to use a regression curve to measure the overall direction the season was going for both the Raiders and the Ravens, we see that the slope of the regression line for the Raiders is positive. The slope for the Ravens, is, surprisingly, going downward, or decreasing.
From a statistical standpoint, if we extrapolate and imagine that the season is longer than 16 weeks, then the Ravens would have been headed downhill, according to the statistical model.
I know what you are saying, but I see the good in it all.
Defintely, we can conclude that we had improvement and an upward movement near the end of the 2009 season, although a second quarterback had injuries, and we lost our groove in the Ravens-Raiders game.
Let’s look at the bright side. We lost but maybe be have found a hen to lay our golden egg, and maybe we will do so much better once all of our players get their groove on in their respective positions.
So cheer up Raider Nation, and remember the big guy who said “Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum, tumbled down the beanstalk, and he was dead and done.”
Wow! The children’s story did not have a happy ending for Jack’s opponent.
In fact, Jack and his poor mom, got the hen and the golden eggs and lived “Happy ever after.”
Now, that’s the kind of ending we want for the Oakland Raiders in 2010.
Oakland Raiders: From Whence We’ve Come
Published: January 7, 2010
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A Historical Graph of Oakland Raiders’ History is worth a thousand words.
During the first of the year, many of us reflect on our past experiences, and we made some assessments about our progress over the year, and over a decade.
Since the 2009 season for the Oakland Raiders had its ups and downs, this aricle gives a pictoral account of the Raiders performance, in part. We have entered a new decade and we need to constantly do “self-studies.”
Consider these graphs either the spine or the skeleton of the complex organization callled the Oakland Raiders.
One thing is certain, however, is that adjustment to the structure (or spine) of a situation ofen promotes healing and growth.
For example, the Oakland Raiders franchise is 50 years old. It started in 1960. During the early years, we see a definite upward movement of performance on the graph.
From 1960 to 1977 (and to present) there are only 11 ties.
1. Two ties occurred in 1964 and 1971.
2. In 1967 and 1976, the Oakland Raiders loss only one game during each of those seasons.
3 In 1965, and 1966, the performance overall was similar..
Oakland Raiders 2003-2009: Not Perfect, but “in Progress”
Published: January 3, 2010
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As a teacher of a reasonably new curricular effort called Development Mathematics, students who failed to demonstrate proficiency were sometimes given a grade “IP” which stands for “In Progress.”
Applying this idea to the Oakland Raiders would give us a little more discernment of the performance behavior of our beloved team. The Oakland Raiders get a grade of “IP” for the period spanning 2003 to present.
Here are charts to show the win-loss facts for each season we have targeted:
A graph of seasonal win-loss patterns for 2008 and 2007 is given. Oakland improved if we view the chart in 2007 (the second chart) and then compare the one for 2008.
The 2008 chart has more fluctuations, indicating more wins and a sequence of consecutive losses. During weeks three, four, and five, there were three consecutive losses.
In weeks seven, eight, nine, and 10 (2008), there were four consecutive losses.
And in weeks 12, 13, and 14 (2008), the same pattern of three consecutive losses. Note, however, that Oakland won the last two games of the 2008 season.
Here are charts for 2006 and 2005. It was a very challenging season in 2006, showing a flatline from weeks eight through 16. Only two peaks for wins in weeks six and seven, but overall the season was dominated by losses. There was a drop in performance from 2005 to 2006. From 2005 to 2006, there was a digression, not a progression upward.
The graphs for 2004 and 2003 have more fluctuations. There are game-loss-gaps of five consecutive games for 2003 and 2004. During the last three games of the 2003 and 2004, the pattern is W-L-L for both years.
Now let’s look at 2009. As you can see there are more fluctuations or oscillations which means, to me, the team has become more effective, active and somewhat more efficient in winning games. The Oakland Raiders are “in progress.”
The behavior in 2009 is much improved over 2006, when the Oakland Raiders had a “flatline” at the end of the 2006 season, with nine consecutive losses.
Another observation is the string of losses in 2004 and 2007. Five consecutive losses during mid-season must have been hard to digest for the Raider Nation. In 2009, the longest game-loss-gap has length three, which is much improved when compared to 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Now let’s look at a chart for the games played immediately following “Bye Week.”
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If the purpose of Bye Week is to allow the team to re-group, rest, study tapes and train, then for the Oakland Raiders it has not worked because since 2003, the Raiders have not won one single game immediately after Bye Week. Even if the Bye Week occurred early in the season, there was no difference in performance in this category.
Here is our chart for 2009. Will the Raiders end the year on a high note, or a loss. In other words, will we have a W-L-W rather than a W-L-L?
Whatever the case may be, we certainly know that the Oakland Raiders are in progress and they are not perfect, but some growth is detected.
Conclusion
Using a weighted average, we see the following from a numerical standpoint.
- 1.56 2008
- 1.25 2007
- 0.65 2006
- 1.25 2005
- 1.56 2004
- 1.25 2003
Using the tally of wins and losses, I weighted the wins (five points), and losses (zero points). Then I added, and divided by 16, which is the total number of games. This method yielded the following information:
The slope of the curve is positive on the interval representing 2006 to 2008. The Oakland Raiders are definitely in a developmental stage and continuity is absolutely necessary in order to not disturb the upward movement of the curve.
What’s more, the Oakland Raiders, according to this analysis of slices of the data, is “In Progress.” The team is not fine-tuned, yet, but they are definitely headed in the right direction.
The Oakland Raiders are not perfect, but they are definitely “in progress.”
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Oakland Raiders 2003-2009: Not Perfect, but “in Progress”
Published: January 3, 2010
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As a teacher of a reasonably new curricular effort called Development Mathematics, students who failed to demonstrate proficiency were sometimes given a grade “IP” which stands for “In Progress.”
Applying this idea to the Oakland Raiders would give us a little more discernment of the performance behavior of our beloved team. The Oakland Raiders get a grade of “IP” for the period spanning 2003 to present.
Here are charts to show the win-loss facts for each season we have targeted:
A graph of seasonal win-loss patterns for 2008 and 2007 is given. Oakland improved if we view the chart in 2007 (the second chart) and then compare the one for 2008.
The 2008 chart has more fluctuations, indicating more wins and a sequence of consecutive losses. During weeks three, four, and five, there were three consecutive losses.
In weeks seven, eight, nine, and 10 (2008), there were four consecutive losses.
And in weeks 12, 13, and 14 (2008), the same pattern of three consecutive losses. Note, however, that Oakland won the last two games of the 2008 season.
Here are charts for 2006 and 2005. It was a very challenging season in 2006, showing a flatline from weeks eight through 16. Only two peaks for wins in weeks six and seven, but overall the season was dominated by losses. There was a drop in performance from 2005 to 2006. From 2005 to 2006, there was a digression, not a progression upward.
The graphs for 2004 and 2003 have more fluctuations. There are game-loss-gaps of five consecutive games for 2003 and 2004. During the last three games of the 2003 and 2004, the pattern is W-L-L for both years.
Now let’s look at 2009. As you can see there are more fluctuations or oscillations which means, to me, the team has become more effective, active and somewhat more efficient in winning games. The Oakland Raiders are “in progress.”
The behavior in 2009 is much improved over 2006, when the Oakland Raiders had a “flatline” at the end of the 2006 season, with nine consecutive losses.
Another observation is the string of losses in 2004 and 2007. Five consecutive losses during mid-season must have been hard to digest for the Raider Nation. In 2009, the longest game-loss-gap has length three, which is much improved when compared to 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Now let’s look at a chart for the games played immediately following “Bye Week.”
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If the purpose of Bye Week is to allow the team to re-group, rest, study tapes and train, then for the Oakland Raiders it has not worked because since 2003, the Raiders have not won one single game immediately after Bye Week. Even if the Bye Week occurred early in the season, there was no difference in performance in this category.
Here is our chart for 2009. Will the Raiders end the year on a high note, or a loss. In other words, will we have a W-L-W rather than a W-L-L?
Whatever the case may be, we certainly know that the Oakland Raiders are in progress and they are not perfect, but some growth is detected.
Conclusion
Using a weighted average, we see the following from a numerical standpoint.
- 1.56 2008
- 1.25 2007
- 0.65 2006
- 1.25 2005
- 1.56 2004
- 1.25 2003
Using the tally of wins and losses, I weighted the wins (five points), and losses (zero points). Then I added, and divided by 16, which is the total number of games. This method yielded the following information:
The slope of the curve is positive on the interval representing 2006 to 2008. The Oakland Raiders are definitely in a developmental stage and continuity is absolutely necessary in order to not disturb the upward movement of the curve.
What’s more, the Oakland Raiders, according to this analysis of slices of the data, is “In Progress.” The team is not fine-tuned, yet, but they are definitely headed in the right direction.
The Oakland Raiders are not perfect, but they are definitely “in progress.”
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Oakland Raiders’ Strength Made Strong in Weakness
Published: January 2, 2010
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How can anyone anticipate a strong finish in the performance of the Oakland Raiders in 2009? I can, and I have data on which to base my anticipated outcome between the Oakland Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens.
Why wouldn’t a team that is 36 years older than its opponent, have a strong finish. The data shows that there is a possibility. Take a look:
The top curve represents the performance of the Ravens during the last six games in 2009. The bottom curve represents the Oakland Raiders.
Notice that there are more peaks in the curve for the Raiders, indicating to me that the Raiders are performing better than the Ravens during the last six games in 2009.
The overall average in the category of win-loss ratio is .518 for the Ravens, and the Raiders have .551.
Both teams lost the Dec. 27 game. However, if the extrapolation is done for the historical data over the last six games, the Raiders will come out on top.
Yes, the Oakland Raiders started out a bit weak during the earlier portion of the 2009 season, but the graph below shows that the Ravens have experienced a decline for one reason or another.
During the first five weeks of the 2009 season, the Ravens were stronger, but as we look at the last five weeks (before Dec. 27) for the Ravens we have L-L-L-W-L compared to a pattern of W-L-W-L-W. Note that both teams loss on Dec. 27.
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If the numbers tell the story, then the Raiders have a very good chance of showing that “when most folks think they are weak, they are in fact, strong.”
What’s the moral of the story: It seems the Oakland Raiders play better when they are perceived to be the underdog, and they, somehow and someway, lose to opponent teams that are perceived to be the underdog.
What could be a piece for advice for the Oakland Raiders? Here we go again: Perceive yourself weaker (so you play harder and smarter) in each game and then because you depend on intangibles like pride, faith, transcendence, beat the opponent and send him home in a state of shock.
We did it to the Steelers, Bengals, and Broncos. We can do it to the Ravens and anyone else we play in 2010.
Article complete 3:33 pm, 1.2.2010
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Do the Oakland Raiders “See” Their Gaps, Breaks, and Oscillations?
Published: January 1, 2010
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The Content
One of my B/R associates wrote an article which mentions the need for continuity. The fact that he has identified the need for continuity points to the reality of the existence of “discontinuities” in the performance of the Oakland Raiders.
A definition of continuity, from a mathematical standpoint, can help us study the structural and functional problems in the performance of the Oakland Raiders. This is the job of an analyst, and it can certainly help us see more clearly what is happening to the Oakland Raiders without regard to flaws in personalities and other factors which may not be measurable, but are definitely observable.
The Context
| Date | Opponent | Score |
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| 9/14/2009 | San Diego | L 24 – 20 |
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| 9/20/2009 | at Kansas City | W 13 – 10 |
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| 9/27/2009 | Denver | L 23 – 3 |
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| 10/4/2009 | at Houston | L 29 – 6 |
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| 10/11/2009 | at N.Y. Giants | L 44 – 7 |
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| 10/18/2009 | Philadelphia | W 13 – 9 |
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| 10/25/2009 | N.Y. Jets | L 38 – 0 |
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| 11/1/2009 | at San Diego | L 24 – 16 |
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| 11/15/2009 | Kansas City | L 16 – 10 |
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| 11/22/2009 | Cincinnati | W 20 – 17 |
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| 11/26/2009 | at Dallas | L 24 – 7 |
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| 12/6/2009 | at Pittsburgh | W 27 – 24 |
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| 12/13/2009 | Washington | L 34 – 13 |
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| 12/20/2009 | at Denver | W 20 – 19 |
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| 12/27/2009 | at Cleveland | L 23 – 9 |
Another way to look at the data to see the pattern, showing the gaps, and oscillations is presented:
I defined a mapping using 0 value for loss, and 5 for win. Notice the three consecutive losses at two different time periods. It indicates the “gaps” in effective performance.
During 2009, there were two time periods where the Oakland Raiders experienced three consecutive losses. There was no time period where the inverse behaviors existed. In other words, there is no time period during the 2009 season that the Oakland Raiders won three consecutive games.
Now, the oscillation is demonstrated near the end of the season. The pattern is W-L-W-L-W-L. Even in the medical world, this would be interpreted as an irregular heartbeat, indicating a sign of abnormality.
Now the breaks occurred when the injuries occurred, especially to our quarterback who gave us a good indication that the pattern could be significantly altered.
The Conclusion
Eventually a variety of techniques will be used to study the performance of the Oakland Raiders, both globally and locally, and the team and the individual players.
Sometimes it just helps us face reality when we communicate data in several ways, using words, pictures, numbers, and symbols.
On New Year’s Day 2009, we, therefore, ask for a re-commitment to excellence so that when we analyze, graph, and interpret the data for 2010 and beyond, we will see new patterns of growth and excellent performance.
I might add that in a mathematical discussion, we have two types of discontinuities: removable, and essential (or non-removable).
Is Al Davis contributing to an essential discontinuity, which is not removable (at least not easily)?
The removable discontinuities requiring us to “define or re-define” the places where gaps occur can be compared to players who are traded, drafted, and more. Oakland can “define” a new dynamic in the team if and when they bring the right people onto the playing field.
Oakland can “re-define” what happens on the playing field by re-structuring, or benching those players who have questionable performance. Those players who have not had a chance to “show their stuff” ought to be considered in the future.
Again, Happy New Year, Raider Nation and Oakland Raiders!
Finally, do you see what I see?
Source: USAToday
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Oakland Raiders: Tic-Tac-Toe, Get Three in a Row
Published: December 31, 2009
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It’s been a good year for those of us who needed to be humbled. Join me because I and others wrote some articles spouting out “high hopes” for the 2009 season, and it’s been a year with a few highs and several lows.
Like a child who wants to get three x’s in a row in tic-tac-toe, some of us would have been happy to see three consecutive victories in 2009. Two wins in a row would have made us happier, too.
So much was invested in JaMarcus Russell that some fans thought that surely he would give us “a very good year.” Nope, it didn’t happen.
Our heads swelled with pride when Bruce Gradkowski injected excitement, passion, and a higher degree of effectiveness in a couple of our games. Then, maybe because we got “a little bit too lifted up,” our “rising star” was injured, not in one knee but in two. Now, tell me, wasn’t that disappointing?
I don’t think it is “off beat” to say that our opponents targeted our rising star, playing hard and dirty to get him out of the game, so to speak. Is that far-fetched?
So, we did get two x’s but they were disabling x’s, representing the injuries of our quarterback.
Well, the beginning of a new year will start and we will get charged up, practiced up, and fired up for the 2010 season.
Will it be tic-tac-toe again, but this time, we yearn for x-x-x and more.
I believe the whole team needs a “major tune up” like changing spark plugs, wires, rotary caps, and a change in the air filter and fuel filter.
Knowing that your car needs a tune up is similar to knowing that the Oakland Raiders need a tune up. When your car mis-fires, won’t crank up in cold weather or hot weather, it stalls at the red light, won’t accelerate properly, you then realize you need a major tune-up. Our team needs a tune up before the 2010 season begins.
Well, the analogy is: Our team mis-fired; it didn’t crank up consistently; and it certainly did not accelerate to give us two consecutive wins for weeks 14 and 15.
How do we tune up our team? Do an assessment and replace any member of the franchise who did not perform properly?
How might this assessment of the entire franchise be done?
A suggestion is to evaluate the performance of “a few good men” and “a few bad men” and strengthen the Oakland Raiders for 2010.
Furthermore, we will stack up the x’s and o’s and we will see the pattern on which we will make our informed decisions.
With the discipline to watch, carefully, as much of the data and performance records of the entire team, we will not tolerate being treated like we have “stupid stamped on our forehead.”
We may be in a game of tic-tac-toe in the NFL, but we still expect, some consecutive x’s (wins) more often.
This is your review of 2009, and your “prep-pep talk” for 2010.
Happy New Year!
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Sebastian Janikowski Kicks the Oakland Raiders to Victories
Published: December 30, 2009
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While struggling to understand a subject called topology, I encountered the theorems of a mathematician from Poland. His name was Kazimierz Kuratowski . His theorem says,
“Every partially ordered set in which every chain (i.e. totally ordered subset ) has an upper bound contains at least one maximal element .”
Well, the condition of the theorem may not apply, totally, to the situation with the Oakland Raiders, but one thing is certain: There is at least one maximal element on the Oakland Raiders team, a kicker, who has pulled us out of what could easily be a depressing year when you look at the numbers.
His name is Sebastian Janikowski, and this Polish “genius of a kicker” has saved the day in several of the 15 games the Oakland Raiders have played during the 2009 season.
Let’s look at the mathematics of Janikowski during this season:
I have researched sets of players, comparing them, and determining the impact they have made on this season’s data. Janikowski stands out. His 61 yard kick has made history.
Janikowski has a steady growth curve, indicating an upward trend in his progress as an Oakland Raider.
Here is a table that shows his progress.
Year Total points Long
- 2000 112 54
- 2001 111 52
- 2002 128 51
- 2003 94 55
- 2004 106 52
- 2005 90 49
- 2006 70 55
- 2007 97 54
- 2008 97 57
- 2009 88 61
Several observations can be made:
1. During weeks three, four and 16, Janikowski was the only Raider who made points during those games
2. During those weeks three, four and 16, Oakland would have had a shut out, if Janikowski had not performed effectively and efficiently.
3. Eight times Janikowski has scored more than 50 percent of the total points in a game, and three times, the only points made were made because of Janikowski’s kicks.
4. In the total of five games Oakland has won (to date), Janikowski scored 53 percent of the points in each of Week Two and Week Six. He scored 40 percent of the points in each of Week 11 and Week 15.
5. During the weeks the Oakland Raiders loss to their opponents, Janikowski succeeded in getting 54 percent of the total points obtained.
Janikowski’s passion to win was certainly demonstrated by the historic 61 yard kick in the game with the Cleveland Browns.
A reasonable conjecture would be that if all of the players executed their jobs with the efficiency and passion of the man born in Poland, Sebastian Janikowski, then the mathematics of the Oakland Raiders 2009 season would have a more “robust” result.
So, as I always do, let me stretch this analysis a bit and say,
“The Oakland Raiders have a maximal element and his name is Sebastian Janikowski.”
Thanks Sebastian Janikowski for being a team player and for giving us reason for believing that 2010 will be a better year.
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Oakland Raiders: In and Out, Up and Down Analysis
Published: December 26, 2009
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Here we go again, looking in and out, up and down, through the data to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the Oakland Raiders and our opponent, the Cleveland Browns.
The second chart shows the teams to be almost coincident in performance, in the categories of wins, losses, ties, and in the win-loss ratio.
The difference in performance may be totally determined by a team’s knowledge, skill and intuition to be reactive and proactive in grabbing hold to victories.
There should be a heightened level of determination because of the recent injuries incurred by the Raiders quarterbacks.
We usually look in and out at the players, but we need to study all of those who are stakeholders in the success of the Oakland Raiders franchise.
Here is a list of people we need to get to know, to determine the impact they make on the day-to-day decisions of the team, and the ups and downs of the performance of the Oakland Raiders on the playing field:
Front Office
Head Coaches
Offensive Coaches
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Defensive Coaches
Special Teams Coaches
Strength and Conditioning
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So as the new year begins, a new strategy will be enacted. The Raider Nation is going to gear up and focus, not only on the performance on the playing field, but on all of the coaches who teach, train, and counsel the Oakland Raiders.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the folks look at us as muppets, from the Henson series, nevertheless, we have every right to look “in and out, up and down” at the performance of the team on the playing field and on the team in the plush offices at the Raiders headquarters.
Finally, let’s usher in an age of accountability for all stakeholders of the Oakland Raiders franchise. We are going to examine the franchise “in and out, up and down” and we will charge each and every stakeholder to give us excellence at every level of the organization, in and out, and up and down.
Have I made my point?
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Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns: Who Will Give Us a Powerful Finale?
Published: December 26, 2009
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Tensions build up near the end of the season when teams like the Cleveland Browns and the Oakland Raiders need a respectable finish at the end of the season. Data for the last three games in the seasons 2004 through 2008 show an interesting pattern.
The pattern of the wins-losses is shown:
Cleveland LLL WLW LLL WLW LLW
Oakland LWW LLL LLL LLL WLL
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
In a chart showing the pattern of performance during the last three games of the season during these five consecutive years, we see that Cleveland and Oakland performed similarly in 2006.
Both teams had heartbreaking losses in three consecutive games in the 2006 season.
In 2008, Cleveland lost three consecutive games, while Oakland managed two consecutive wins in the last two games of the 2008 season.
In 2007, Oakland lost three consecutive games, while Cleveland alternately won, loss, and won the last games of the 2007 season.
In 2005, Cleveland had a stronger finish in the last three games of the season, while in 2004, the two teams were evenly matched with one win and two losses.
If we aggregate the wins and losses of Cleveland during the last three games of this period, we see that there were 10 losses and five wins. The efficiency level for the Cleveland Browns is about 33.3 percent for the last three games of the selected time period.
On the other hand, the Oakland Raiders had 12 losses and three wins, giving the Raiders an efficiency level of 20 percent.
Based on this data, Cleveland has a tendency to have a more powerful finish during the last three games of the selected seasons.
Numbers do not tell the entire story. Since the Oakland Raiders have done a fantastic job of surprising the “hell out of” its opponents, for example, in the games against the Bengals, Steelers, and the Broncos, it would not be a good idea to use this data as a predictor.
As one of my colleagues said in a comment strand, “respect” is an important “driving factor” in the dynamics of a team near the end of a season. Hence, look forward to an exciting and thrilling encounter between the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns.
Who is the team more capable of a powerful finish during the 2009 season? Who else? My conjecture: The Oakland Raiders will win and the numbers will be close.
Our “respect and pride” are at stake.
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