Not Quite There Yet: Tom Brady’s 2009 Preseason

Tom Brady led the Patriots offense against the Redskins this past Friday night. His numbers for the night were solid: 12 of 19, 150 yards, two TDs, zero INTs, 122.7 rating.  Numerous people are clammoring that it is 2007 all over again, etc.

On the surface, the numbers speak well for Brady this preseason. He is completing nearly 62 percent of his passes, has thrown four TDs and only one INT.  Many fans and so-called football experts alike are talking about how his play is so impressive. 

They point to his QB rating (105.95) and express absolute confidence that he is “back,” ready to take his team to the promised land flowing with Lombardi trophies and confetti.

However, after watching the game, I have to conclude that the future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback for the Patriots is not quite back to 100 percent yet.

This is not some alarmist commentary. It also should not be taken as a condemnation of Tom Brady’s play, nor is this under the Chicken Little heading (“The sky is falling!”). 

I’d take Brady over any other quarterback in the NFL. I admire the play of both Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and others, but Tom Brady is our quarterback; I wouldn’t want it any other way. 

This is simply my own personal evaluation of a player I’ve come to admire, and how he has performed during the preseason, particularly in the game against the Redskins. 

Why have I chosen that game on which to focus? The main reason is simply that it will likely be the last significant amount of work he’ll do before the season begins. It also represents the most recent body of work, demonstrating for us just how far along he is in kicking off the rust and recovering from injury.

As best I can determine with my admittedly unprofessional eye, the knee appears to be physically fine. He moves around on it without any appearance of limping or any sign of pain. By all reports, his knee is actually stronger than ever.  

The only physical effect of the injury is that his knee brace does seem to hinder mobility slightly, making him a little stiffer. However, the physical effects appear to be limited at most.

Mentally, however, I think Tom Brady is only about 80-85 percent recovered. It seems apparent to me that he is subconsciously guarding that knee, and hesitant to lean into it, onto it. 

This was demonstrated several times during the Redskins game, especially in his throw with 2:40 left in the first quarter. When facing pressure in this game, Brady rushed his throws.

There are two plays I wanted to focus on in particular. Late in the first quarter, with Brady and the Patriots facing a first-and-10 and operating out of the shotgun, the Redskins sent a linebacker blitz. 

The offensive line picked it up, but Matt Light got moved back close to Brady by Brian Orakpo. It appeared to startle Brady, and his subsequent throw was late to Galloway, knocked away by the defender.

It isn’t that he had to get rid of the ball quick, it’s how he did it. He threw in a hurry, and neither set his feet nor stepped into the throw, although he had time to do both. Frankly, he looked panicked. 

After the play, he appeared unsure, as if he didn’t know how to react to what had just happened. It’s no mystery why the next two passes were quick outs to Galloway and Moss out of the shotgun.

In fact, out of the 21 pass plays in the game (including the one called back due to a Patriots’ penalty), 14 were out of the shotgun. Of the other seven, five were play action. 

It’s possible—even likely—that the Patriots staff doesn’t want to give too many looks to opponents. It also has to be considered, though, that Bill Belichick and his staff are being very protective of Brady, by giving him these so-called ‘safer’ looks downfield.

The other play that stuck out to my mind was the final pass play of the night for Brady, the now infamous hit by Albert Haynesworth. 

I don’t have any issue with the play itself. In fact, I think the NFL is tending to baby the quarterbacks of the league. It isn’t the hit that draws my attention; it’s the way Brady behaved in the pocket before that hit.

He had what is often referred to as ‘happy feet,’ meaning he was shuffling about all during the play. Washington brought pressure on the third-and-six play, which is to be expected on an obvious passing down. 

Brady did not respond with his usual cool. He was on his toes, elevated, and never set his feet. The pressure got to him mentally before Haynesworth ever dropped his hefty physique on our signal-caller.

The throw itself made me cringe. He was off his back foot, never really set, and it looked as though he just threw it up for grabs. A high floating pass off thrown deep down the right sideline doesn’t seem like the kind of play that we’d see from Brady in the recent past. It was begging to be intercepted, and the Patriots were fortunate that it fell incomplete.

In watching Brady’s pass plays, I could see where he appeared to be hurrying, rushing, not setting his feet properly.

Don’t get me wrong, there are often times when a quarterback has to get the ball out quickly, when there simply isn’t time to set his feet properly. The second touchdown pass to Moss is an excellent example of that. 

There are also times when everything about the play looks perfect (feet set, steps into throw, etc.) and the pass is off-target.

Having watched the game over again, reviewing every pass play, Brady appears to lose focus at times, or gets rattled by pressure. He is still adjusting, I think, to the speed of the actual game, and getting acclimated to it once again after a year off.

In this apparent doom and gloom report, there is reason to take heart, good Patriots fans. It looks as though Brady is simply adjusting, getting back to who and what he was—a professional quarterback. On many of the plays, he looked confident, solid, the Brady of old. 

At this point in his return and recovery, I think it is simply that Brady needs to get into a rhythm and keep that rhythm going. When that rhythm is disrupted, it is more difficult for him to regain it.

On one play, Brady was flushed from the pocket, and started running. (Running is of course a relative term when Mr. Brady—or most any NFL quarterback—is concerned.) As the linebacker came up, he threw a quick and sharp pass out to Maroney in the flat, who took it 13 yards. 

He didn’t throw it immediately, he drew the linebacker first to give Maroney more space to run. That was vintage Brady, timing a play beautifully. It was also an excellent example of how a quarterback need not always set his feet on his throws.

He isn’t back to 100 percent, and he likely won’t be until a few games into the season. It’s possible we won’t see the Tom Brady we want to see until mid-season, but be confident in who we have under center. I’ll take Brady at 90 percent healthy and 80 percent mentally ready over any other quarterback in the league.

The wonderful thing is that while his preseason play is just shy of a 106 rating, his best football is yet to come.

Group Effort Part II: The Best Running Back Corps in the NFC

I did this for the AFC, and got a number of comments insisting I consider the Carolina Panthers. An easy mistake to make, but it got me thinking.

Thoughts lead to actions, and in this case that action is writing, typing, and then submitting my 10th article to Bleacher Report. (Isn’t this exciting?)

So without further ado, I present my top five NFC Running Back Corps, plus honorable mentions.

 

Honorable Mentions

b. Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Leonard Weaver, and Lorenzo Booker

Any group must be considered if they’re headed by Westbrook, one of the most versatile backs the NFL has ever seen. However, despite my admiration for his skills, he is past his prime, and hasn’t played 16 games in any season in his career.

LeSean McCoy, while a rookie, has shown promise in camp, and is expected to be the No. 2 man behind Westbrook. Leonard Weaver is a complete fullback who can pass block, run block, run, and catch. Booker has looked great also. They need to prove themselves, however.

 

a. Chicago Bears

Matt Forte, Kevin Jones, Garrett Wolfe, and Adrian Peterson

Forte is an incredible back, who has done wonderfully, despite having poor quarterback play behind him. Kevin Jones is good, not great, but solid insurance for Forte. Wolfe and Peterson haven’t yet blown anyone away, but they are versatile.

 

The Top Five

5. New Orleans Saints

Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Heath Evans, Mike Bell

Thomas is fully expected to take over the lead back role with the Saints, and be the “thunder” to Reggie Bush’s “lightning.” Bush is without question the best “satellite” (operates best in space) in the NFL, but he’ll need Thomas to set him up.

Evans, signed away from the Patriots, gives a lot of options for Brees and the offense. Bell is looking to step up to take the No. 3 role, backing up both Bush and Thomas.

 

4. New York Giants

Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Brown, and Danny Ware

Jacobs, the NFL’s leading linebacker running back, is well known. Larger than a number of linebackers and nearly everyone in the opposing secondary, he can power over nearly everyone one-on-one.

Bradshaw worked well backing up Ward as the No. 3 back, and has looked better in camp. Brown is expected to shine, while Ware is fighting to stay on the roster, but the strength is the top of the list, which is solid.

 

3. Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and Ian Johnson

Simply the presence of Peterson puts the Vikings in the top five. When you add in Taylor, it’s impossible to keep them out of the top three. Johnson is looking to take that No. 3 spot, and anything he can add will only be a bonus.

 

2. Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, and Ovie Mughelli

Turner’s presence is much the same as Peterson’s—if he’s here, the Falcons have to be top five. Norwood continues to be under-appreciated, despite averaging nearly six yards per carry and 9.4 yards per reception over his career.

Mughelli doesn’t carry the ball much, but that’s not his job. His job is to clear the way for Turner and Norwood, and considering their combined ypc average (4.65), I’d say he does alright.

 

1. Carolina Panthers

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Goodson

I tried—I really did—to put these guys as No. 3 or No. 4, just to show I’m not so powerfully influenced. The fact is that they’re just downright solid. Williams and Stewart averaged over five ypc and nearly two rushing touchdowns per game.

Goodson will likely fill the No. 3 spot, and will start off mostly on returns. Don’t expect him to remain there long.

We shouldn’t be too surprised if Goodson steps up, because the Panthers have a habit of bringing along running backs. For the past five years or so, they’ve used a platoon system, to great effectiveness. Stephen Davis is hurt? No problem, we’ll plug in second-year man Foster.

Davis is gone, we’ll bring this young guy Williams along. Williams steps up, so now Foster is out and rookie Stewart is the No. 2 guy. It does make me wonder how long it’ll be before Williams is gone, Stewart is No. 1 and Goodson steps into the backup role.

 

The NFC was in some ways easier to evaluate than the AFC, but in other ways much harder.  What makes it harder is that the top three teams all have two solid guys at the top. 

Peterson is No. 1, Turner No. 2, and Williams is No.3 out of the top three. With the No. 2 role, Stewart is No.1, Norwood No. 2, and Taylor is No. 3, a complete inversion of order. 

The next two on the list aren’t easier. It’s not as though Bradshaw or Bush are slouches.  The NFC presents its own challenges, especially for an admitted AFC man.

Again, I welcome, encourage, even request commentary and criticism.

Group Effort: The Best Running Back Corps in the AFC

It seems like almost all of the press lately has been going to the quarterbacks and the diva stars formerly known as receivers. 

The media coverage tended to focus on the Brett Favres (will he? Or rather, when will he?), the Jay Cutlers (aka, temper tantrum boy), the Terrell Owens’ (will he ever find a house in Buffalo?), and the Brandon Marshalls (Mr. “I wanna go play with Jay”).

I thought it was time to take a glance at the high profile workhorses of the offense: the backs. Regardless of whether you use the term fullback, running back, or halfback, if you don’t have a good one, you’re in trouble; and one may not be enough.

The recent trend in the NFL is to have a group of backs, and platoon them. The thought process is simple–if you use different backs in different situations and use multiple backs, you can keep the entire group rested, and potentially get more production.

As with receivers, linebackers, and others, there are good groups and there are bad groups. What follows is a listing I put together of the five best running back corps in the AFC. 

Honorable Mentions:
c) Denver Broncos. 
Why they’re not in the top five: the Broncos have plenty of depth, but it is a group of second-stringers. Moreno might push them over the top, but not in time for this list.

b) Miami Dolphins.
Why they’re not in the top five: Two good backs top their list, but Williams is past his prime. Was the Wildcat the reason they did well last year? I don’t think so.

a) Jacksonville Jaguars. 
Why they’re not in the top five: the Jaguars’ top back, Jones-Drew, might be considered by many to be the top back in the AFC, but there isn’t much behind him.

The Top Five AFC Running Back Corps

5) Baltimore Ravens. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Ray Rice.
Every team knows the Ravens intend to run. Despite this, they still managed to gain over four yards per carry.

The key to this group is health. McGahee has missed a number of games lately, and his presence is essential. Ray Rice did satisfactorily in McGahee’s absence, and McClain is a solid powerback. If McGahee plays the entire season, this group could be devastating.

4) San Diego Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bennett.
This group is led by Tomlinson, who was considered at one time the best back in the NFL.  Injuries and age are taking their toll, and the last few seasons have made many question if it was the back or the offensive line. 

Regardless, Tomlinson’s difficulties have allowed Darren Sproles to emerge. He is still considered little more than a third-down back by some, and will need to prove himself.  Bennett is an okay third option, but his best years have long since passed.

3) New England Patriots. Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk.
The depth of this group is what gets them this high ranking. Three of them have been regular starters at one point or another in the NFL, and Kevin Faulk is one of the better third down backs in the NFL. 

There is also talk of the Patriots keeping BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the roster. Green-Ellis, a second year player, gained a a lot of game experience last season, and if the Patriots keep him, they would be the only team in the NFL that has four backs with 70+ carries each last season.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore.
Willie Parker is a very good back, and that’s shown strongly in the past two seasons.  Sometimes he does require that extra space, but he knows how to make it work. 

Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated promise in the little action he had before being injured. I fully expect him to do well in 2009. Mewelde Moore had to step in for each of them, and did so to the tune of nearly 600 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also added 40 receptions to the list.

1) Tennessee Titans. Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Chris Henry.
The strength of this group is the effectiveness of the top two backs. Johnson had an excellent rookie year, providing a spark. 

LenDale White has taken hold of the power back role, and has fulfilled it admirably. The questions here regard the other backs: will Chris Henry step up for that No. 3 role, and how well will he fill it?

 

One team that didn’t make the honorable mention category but has potential to be in the top five, is the New York Jets. As a Patriots fan, I have to hate the Jets (it’s a requirement, I think a federal statute). However, if Shonn Greene comes on strong as a rookie, he could provide the bump to put them over the top. 

Thomas Jones is solid, and Leon Washington is exciting. Rex Ryan has a run-first philosophy, so look for them to shove the ball down the opponents’ throats.

I had to think long and hard about accepting what my figures gave me and how they conflicted with my own personal feelings on the matter. It was hard to get the two to coexist. I used my own ranking system, then went to several sites for how they ranked rb’s, and combined the results. 

It is, of course, according to my own formulae and opinion, so if your team doesn’t rank as highly as you expect, give me a reason to change my mind! Regardless, I’d love feedback!

Group Effort: The Best Running Back Corps in the AFC

It seems like almost all of the press lately has been going to the quarterbacks and the diva stars formerly known as receivers. 

The media coverage tended to focus on the Brett Favres (will he? Or rather, when will he?), the Jay Cutlers (aka, temper tantrum boy), the Terrell Owens’ (will he ever find a house in Buffalo?), and the Brandon Marshalls (Mr. “I wanna go play with Jay”).

I thought it was time to take a glance at the high profile workhorses of the offense: the backs. Regardless of whether you use the term fullback, running back, or halfback, if you don’t have a good one, you’re in trouble; and one may not be enough.

The recent trend in the NFL is to have a group of backs, and platoon them. The thought process is simple–if you use different backs in different situations and use multiple backs, you can keep the entire group rested, and potentially get more production.

As with receivers, linebackers, and others, there are good groups and there are bad groups. What follows is a listing I put together of the five best running back corps in the AFC. 

Honorable Mentions:
c) Denver Broncos. 
Why they’re not in the top five: the Broncos have plenty of depth, but it is a group of second-stringers. Moreno might push them over the top, but not in time for this list.

b) Miami Dolphins.
Why they’re not in the top five: Two good backs top their list, but Williams is past his prime. Was the Wildcat the reason they did well last year? I don’t think so.

a) Jacksonville Jaguars. 
Why they’re not in the top five: the Jaguars’ top back, Jones-Drew, might be considered by many to be the top back in the AFC, but there isn’t much behind him.

The Top Five AFC Running Back Corps

5) Baltimore Ravens. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Ray Rice.
Every team knows the Ravens intend to run. Despite this, they still managed to gain over four yards per carry.

The key to this group is health. McGahee has missed a number of games lately, and his presence is essential. Ray Rice did satisfactorily in McGahee’s absence, and McClain is a solid powerback. If McGahee plays the entire season, this group could be devastating.

4) San Diego Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bennett.
This group is led by Tomlinson, who was considered at one time the best back in the NFL.  Injuries and age are taking their toll, and the last few seasons have made many question if it was the back or the offensive line. 

Regardless, Tomlinson’s difficulties have allowed Darren Sproles to emerge. He is still considered little more than a third-down back by some, and will need to prove himself.  Bennett is an okay third option, but his best years have long since passed.

3) New England Patriots. Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk.
The depth of this group is what gets them this high ranking. Three of them have been regular starters at one point or another in the NFL, and Kevin Faulk is one of the better third down backs in the NFL. 

There is also talk of the Patriots keeping BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the roster. Green-Ellis, a second year player, gained a a lot of game experience last season, and if the Patriots keep him, they would be the only team in the NFL that has four backs with 70+ carries each last season.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore.
Willie Parker is a very good back, and that’s shown strongly in the past two seasons.  Sometimes he does require that extra space, but he knows how to make it work. 

Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated promise in the little action he had before being injured. I fully expect him to do well in 2009. Mewelde Moore had to step in for each of them, and did so to the tune of nearly 600 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also added 40 receptions to the list.

1) Tennessee Titans. Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Chris Henry.
The strength of this group is the effectiveness of the top two backs. Johnson had an excellent rookie year, providing a spark. 

LenDale White has taken hold of the power back role, and has fulfilled it admirably. The questions here regard the other backs: will Chris Henry step up for that No. 3 role, and how well will he fill it?

 

One team that didn’t make the honorable mention category but has potential to be in the top five, is the New York Jets. As a Patriots fan, I have to hate the Jets (it’s a requirement, I think a federal statute). However, if Shonn Greene comes on strong as a rookie, he could provide the bump to put them over the top. 

Thomas Jones is solid, and Leon Washington is exciting. Rex Ryan has a run-first philosophy, so look for them to shove the ball down the opponents’ throats.

I had to think long and hard about accepting what my figures gave me and how they conflicted with my own personal feelings on the matter. It was hard to get the two to coexist. I used my own ranking system, then went to several sites for how they ranked rb’s, and combined the results. 

It is, of course, according to my own formulae and opinion, so if your team doesn’t rank as highly as you expect, give me a reason to change my mind! Regardless, I’d love feedback!

Back to the Future: Patriots 2007 Prelude for 2009

There’s no questioning the impact of the Patriots’ 2007 season on the rest of the NFL.

From Week 1, New England caught the attention of the rest of the league, and made pending opponents take notice, spend extra time in the weight room, film room, etc.

It was to no avail, of course, as the Patriots steamrolled through the first half of the season and maintained cruise control to finish the regular season 16-0.  The playoffs didn’t end as they wished, but there was no denying the powerful effect on the NFL in general, and the AFC in particular.

Following that storybook season was the Tom Brady-less 2008 campaign.  Matt Cassel did an admirable job, leading the team to an 11-5 record despite not starting at quarterback since 1999. 

The Patriots still managed to finish in the top 10 in points for the fifth straight year, but despite tying the Dolphins’ record were left out of the playoffs due to the tiebreaker. 

The big question now is what do these two seasons combined portend for the upcoming 2009 season?

2007 was a great season for the defense.  Playing with a lead for nearly the entire season, they could pin their ears back and get after the opposing quarterback with reckless abandon. 

The secondary only needed to hold for 3-4 seconds while the defensive line and linebackers rushed.  This led to a total of 47 sacks and 19 interceptions.  They had the fourth-ranked defense, and many believed that it was one of the best defenses the Patriots had put on the field.

After 2007, they lost Asante Samuel.  Yet somehow, the 2008 defense (with Deltha O’Neal replacing) still managed to snare a respectable 14 interceptions on their way to the eighth-ranked defense.  That ranking seems high in retrospect. 

The Patriots only picked up 30 sacks, and allowed opponents to convert over 44 percent of third downs.  In addition, they did not manage to get a touchdown on defense, compared to six in 2007.

Despite the high ranking, the defense looked tired, out of sorts at times.  They were almost entirely ineffectual against the pass.

They ranked fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed, but this is dismissed by their abysmal 31st ranking in passing touchdowns allowed.  The weakness was noticed and exploited for much of the year.

In 2009, the secondary has been revamped heavily.  Last year’s starters, Ellis Hobbs III and Deltha O’Neal, have been replaced by veteran free agents Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. 

The Patriots also drafted Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler this year, in addition to second-year players Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley; Wheatley suffered a season-ending injury against the Colts.

For the safeties, Brandon Meriweather took over for Rodney Harrison following Harrison’s season-ending quadriceps injury and did well.  James Sanders remains unspectacular, but serviceable.  The safety position was also bolstered by the drafting of Patrick Chung from Oregon. 

What the Patriots have, in effect, is a group of players many of whom will be in either their first or second year in the system. 

Central to the Patriots’ overall success is how quickly these new players can adapt to Belichick’s philosophies.

The defensive line remains unchanged.  Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour start, followed by Jarvis Green as needed.  This is a solid group, and still fairly young given their experience in the system. 

Ron Brace was drafted to back up this group, and they still have Mike Wright to provide support.

The strength of this group is the front three, though.  I expect that the entire group will perform well, even better than last year. 

Was the reduced number of sacks due to this group’s inability to get after the quarterback, or was it due to the secondary’s poor play?  I happen to think it is the latter.

The linebacker group is actually the biggest risk/reward area for the Patriots on defense this year.  Jerod Mayo at ILB played nearly every defensive snap last year.  He and Adalius Thomas at OLB are the two best players in this group, and will be the leaders. 

Longtime veteran and fan favorite Tedy Bruschi will likely platoon with second-year player Gary Guyton, who may well replace him this year in the starting lineup.

The big questions revolve around the rest of the group.   Will Pierre Woods step up and be the starter, or will Tully Banta-Cain, back from a short stint in San Francisco, take the lead role? 

Shawn Crable watched last year from IR; can he become the starter? 

Recent signee Paris Lenon is glad to join Leigh Bodden in their escape from 0-16 Detroit, but will he beat out Eric Alexander the primary backup role behind Jerod Mayo?

Analysis: I’m not certain whether or not this is going to be a great defense, but the possibility is there.  There are going to be at least four new starters, and that could prove a bit tricky at the onset.  

Expect more pressure on the quarterback, and a much better third down defense.  There are several members in their final year of their contract, so you can look for a tremendous ‘contract year’ result for this defense.

They won’t want to be the reason that the team couldn’t get the Lombardi trophy.  I anticipate that Tully Banta-Cain won’t make the roster, despite his experience with the defense.

 

End Result

Secondary (S, CB): Improved, but it remains to be seen by how much.
Defensive Line: Solid as ever, with younger players coming up.
Linebacker (OLB, ILB): Questions remain here, but this group could be improved over last season, barring injury.

The offense of the Patriots bears a striking resemblance to the record-setting 2007 group that took the league by storm.  There are differences, though, and possible changes in philosophies that could come to bear in the games ahead.

At quarterback we’re moving ahead to the past with the return of Tom Brady.  Kevin O’Connell is unproven and untested as the backup, but then so was Matt Cassel.

It is expected (and hoped!) that he won’t get a chance to see the field much this season, except in late game mop-up duty. 

The big question on everyone’s mind won’t be answered until at least August – how healthy is Tom Brady’s knee really?  Personally, I anticipate that it’ll be strong, but that his play won’t be quite up to the 2007 numbers.

But a 90 percent Brady is better than 99 percent of other quarterbacks playing at their best.  I look for 4300+ yards and 32-36 touchdowns, perhaps with 12 interceptions.

Randy Moss and Wes Welker once again highlight the receiving corps.  Moss has shown that his talent remains, grabbing 167 passes for 2,501 yards and 34 touchdowns over the past two years.  He’s a true No. 1 receiver that teams must game-plan around and most defenses double-team. 

Welker has picked up 223 receptions for 2,340 yards and 11 TDs in his two years with the Patriots.  Along the way he has established himself as the best slot receiver in the game.

Don’t be surprised to find him catching under 100 passes this season, however, as the offense does more work on the running game.

The Patriots have lost two receivers from 2007: Donte Stallworth, who left after 2007, and Jabar Gaffney, who joined Josh McDaniels in Denver this year. 

The Patriots have stayed true to form, however, signing Joey Galloway in free agency, trading for Greg Lewis, and drafting Julian Edelman.

Joey Galloway is considered a better route runner than Stallworth, and has good hands and great speed—when he is healthy, that is.  If healthy, he’ll start opposite Moss.

Lewis has been plagued with criticism throughout his career, for route running, work ethic, and dropping passes.  Leaving Philadelphia could be the best thing for his career.

New England doesn’t have high expectations for him, they merely want him to do his job as the No. 4 WR, be ready to go, and catch the ball when it comes his way.

Julian Edelman is easily the most intriguing rookie on the offense.  A former QB, he’s said to have slipped into the WR role with incredible ease, and he’s shown great promise.

That said, everything we have seen has been without hits and without pads, so we’ll hold off the great praise until we see what he does in full contact.

The Tight Ends are much improved.  Ben Watson and David Thomas are no longer the consensus 1-2 of the group.  The arrival of newcomers Chris Baker (FA) and Alex Smith (trade) could mean that Thomas misses the cut this season.

Baker and Smith are both good receivers, and should help blocking in the running game as well.  Watson will need to show the ability to catch the ball to match his athleticism, or he will be moved to No. 2 or even No. 3.

The running back corps has definitely improved.  The 2007 group consisted of Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Kyle Eckel, with Heath Evans as fullback.  In 2008 they lost Eckel but acquired free agent LaMont Jordan and undrafted rookie BenJarvis Green-Ellis. 

Now, Evans and Jordan are gone, and Fred Taylor has come in.  The combination of Taylor-Morris-Maroney-Faulk looks like the best set of backs since the Corey Dillon-Maroney-Faulk group of 2006. 

I fully anticipate the Patriots to utilize the run more prominently in 2009 than they did in 2007.  I expect a regular platooning—assuming health, of course—with Taylor as lead, followed by Morris and Maroney.  Faulk would once again assume the third down or change-of-pace back position.

Still, don’t believe that the Patriots haven’t been effective in their attempts to run the ball recently.  In fact, in the past three seasons the Patriots have rushed for three of the top four yardage totals since Belichick took over in 2000. 

This includes the top three rushing TD totals, and three of the four highest ypc average.  Not only that, but three of the five most total rushing attempts have come the past three years.

2008 alone brought the second most rushing attempts, along with the most rushing TDs, yards, and ypc average in Belichick’s tenure.  Running the ball has benefited from the passing game quite well.

The big question with the running game is what to do with BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  In his rookie season, he rushed for 275 yards and five touchdowns in limited action. 

Standing behind Taylor, Morris, Maroney, and Faulk makes it difficult for him to make the roster, much less get playing time. 

Be prepared to see the Patriots and Bill Belichick decide to keep a fifth back this season, if for no other reason than the fact that Green-Ellis is no longer practice squad eligible.  That fact alone might well put him on the 53 man roster.

The offensive line, which garnered tremendous praise during the 2007 romp through the regular season, took some heat for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants.  Last year, thanks to injuries and sometimes sloppy play, they went from being the darlings to being considered the dogs. 

2009 could be redemption, and with some contracts expiring, this could be a last shot for some to remain with the team.  Matt Light remains good at Left Tackle, but has difficulty with quicker DE’s and OLB’s, which has meant shifting protections. 

Logan Mankins is a road-grader with a mean streak, perfect for the Left Guard.  Dan Koppen has been a solid Center, and there’s no reason to suspect otherwise. 

Stephen Neal is good when on the field, but he’s missed a lot of games lately.  He’ll need to be healthy, or it’s an outside chance he might not even make the roster come fall. 

Nick Kaczur is another who could be in danger, and will need to take his play up a notch. 

Even so, with a new QB in Matt Cassel, this group worked hard and tried to learn his cadence, his instincts.  It shouldn’t take long to get into “Brady mode.”

There is new young talent coming up in Rich Ohrnberger and Sebastian Vollmer.  Thanks in large part to Dante Scarnecchia, the OL coach, the o-line will again be a contributor to the team’s success, not a cause of their demise.

Tom Brady’s knee is the biggest difference between the 2007 offense and this upcoming season. Matt Cassel took the helm in 2008, and the Patriots went 11-5.  Cassel was also able to throw 21 TDs compared to just 11 INTs, and compiled nearly 3,700 yards. 

It has to be assumed that a healthy Tom Brady would be able to improve upon that, especially with the improvements in the running backs and receivers. 

Brady’s injury, however, could mean a potential shift in how the Patriots approach games.  If Brady is at 100 percent, I would not be surprised to see the Pats come out guns a-blazin’, scoring points like mad from the start.  Even then, don’t be shocked if the running game plays a more prominent role.

 

End Result

Quarterback: Tom Brady, expected healthy.  Nothing more needs to be said.
Receivers (TE, WR): Improved, especially at TE, but how much is still in question.
Offensive Line: Dependable as always. 
Running Backs: Best since Dillon-Maroney-Faulk, and quite probably superior to that.  Could be best RB group Belichick has ever had.

 

Final Opinion

This Patriots team is positioned to reclaim the AFC East title, and wants to recover the Lamar Hunt trophy on their way to grabbing the coveted Lombardi. 

On the offensive side, there is no reason to expect anything other than excellence, and tons of scoring; not equal to 2007, but superior by far to 2008. 

They are definitely one of the top 10 offenses in the league, and probably top 3-5.

The questions are on defense.  If the first and second year players and recently acquired veterans can mesh quickly in the Patriots system, this could be one of the better defenses in the league. 

If they struggle to keep discipline on their assignments, they could be middle of the pack and disappointing.

It’s my opinion that this defense will far surpass last year in all areas.  Expect much better numbers for sacks, interceptions, third down defense, and red zone scoring.

Rushing yards allowed will be about equal, but passing yards will fall.  This defense will be good, and be a strong asset on their way to a February game.

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