NFL 2009 Week 17 Wrap-Up

Finally, after the last game of the season, the playoff field is set. A lot of players have a lot to prove in the second season and some started proving it in Week 17 with stellar performances.

Buffalo (6-10) def. Indianapolis (14-2), 30-7: Most expected Indy to rest their starters and Buffalo took advantage in administering this beatdown.

However, it bothered me that Indy’s starters were basically in just to get Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark to 100 catches, yet Bill Polian said the organization didn’t feel like the undefeated season was a “historic achievement.” That’s ridiculous by itself, but it’s made even worse by the fact that they obviously think 100 catches is more important.

Cleveland (5-11) def. Jacksonville (7-9), 23-17: The Cleveland Browns ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak.

The Cleveland Browns ended the season on a four-game winning streak.

I still can’t wrap my head around that.

Dallas (11-5) def. Philadelphia (11-5), 24-0: I didn’t see this coming at all. Dallas dominated throughout the entire game, making it look easy at times. Tony Romo continues to prove doubters wrong and the defense was great. Philly will have to fix a lot of things if they’re going to beat Dallas on Saturday.

Chicago (7-9) def. Detroit (2-14), 37-23: As with most games last weekend that had no impact on the playoffs, this game was fairly uneventful. Jay Cutler played well, but it was too little and far too late.

San Francisco (8-8) def. St. Louis (1-15), 28-6: For a little while, it looked like the Rams might play themselves out of the first pick of the draft. Then the real Rams showed up and order was restored.

Pittsburgh (9-7) def. Miami (7-9), 30-24: This game was almost a microcosm of the Steelers’ season. They built up a big lead and then almost let it evaporate. They got the win, but it wasn’t enough as Baltimore would eliminate them three hours later.

Minnesota (12-4) def. New York Giants (8-8), 44-7: Pathetic, pathetic performance by the Giants. The Vikings had their way with them and never let up. This is exactly how Minnesota needed to go into the playoffs after a shaky December.

Atlanta (9-7) def. Tampa Bay (3-13), 20-10: This game had no impact on the playoffs, but it was historic because it gave the Falcons their second straight winning season, a first in the franchise’s history. A team playing hard with nothing to play for? Other teams can learn from them.

Carolina (8-8) def. New Orleans (13-3), 23-10: Speaking of teams with nothing to play for playing hard, Carolina has quietly rebounded from their bad start. They should think about at least letting Matt Moore compete for the starting quarterback job this summer.

New Orleans is looking pretty bad right now. Yes, they played their reserves, but going into the playoffs (especially with a bye) on a three-game losing streak is not ideal.

Houston (9-7) def. New England (10-6), 34-27: First of all, I love how the Pats played this game. Yes, the Wes Welker injury is horrible, but that could’ve happened anywhere. They got a good amount of work in for the starters and got Brian Hoyer, who actually played very well, and some other reserves into the game.

When New England took a 14-point lead, it looked like the Texans were going to choke again. However, they came up big and, if only for a few hours, kept their playoff hopes alive. They will be very dangerous next season.

Kansas City (4-12) def. Denver (8-8), 44-24: This was pretty much all about Jamaal Charles shredding Denver’s defense in what should have been a much closer game than it was. This loss also cemented another Denver collapse.

Baltimore (9-7) def. Oakland (5-11), 21-13: For a while, Oakland was giving hope to Pittsburgh and Houston. Baltimore was never able to deliver the knockout shot to the Raiders (excluding this from Willis McGahee), letting them hang on until the end.

Green Bay (11-5) def. Arizona (10-6), 33-7: Obviously, this will be a different game in the playoffs with Kurt Warner playing, but this game was all Packers. However, they need to get healthy before the game.

San Diego (13-3) def. Washington (4-12), 23-20: Even against San Diego’s reserves, the ‘Skins couldn’t get the job done. Mike Shanahan has a lot of work ahead of him.

Tennessee (8-8) def. Seattle (5-11), 17-13: Getting to 2,000 yards in one season is a great accomplishment for Chris Johnson. Although he didn’t pass Eric Dickerson, he did pass the great Marshall Faulk for most yards from the line of scrimmage in a season. I’d say that’s a pretty good day at the office.

New York Jets (9-7) def. Cincinnati (10-6), 37-0: I don’t know how much anyone can take out of this game going into the rematch, but it’s definitely not meaningless. Cincy, once an offensive power, set offensive football back about six decades. The Jets feasted on them all game long.

Top 12 Teams (Last week’s ranking)

1. San Diego Chargers (1): No team enters the playoffs hotter than the Chargers. They are probably the favorites to win it all. Next week: N/A
2. Indianapolis Colts (2): There is no reason to drop them after they took it easy in Buffalo. Next week: N/A
3. Dallas Cowboys (4): They’ve looked great in their last three games. They will be a tough out. Next week: vs. Philadelphia (11-5)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3): They looked pretty pathetic in Dallas, but one bad performance shouldn’t undo the string of very good ones before it. Next week: at Dallas (11-5)
5. Minnesota Vikings (7): The dominating performance they put on was exactly the way they needed to go into their bye after all of December’s drama and bad play. Next week: N/A
6. New Orleans Saints (5): Has a No. 1 seed ever looked more vulnerable than the Saints do? Next week: N/A
7. Arizona Cardinals (6): They really shouldn’t have dropped a spot, but I’m not sure they can beat New Orleans or Minnesota on the road. Next week: vs. Green Bay (11-5)
8. Green Bay Packers (9): They have been pretty dominant over the last month or so. Nobody wants to play them right now. Next week: at Cardinals (10-6)
9. New England Patriots (8): I loved how they played in Houston, but the Wes Welker injury is crippling to their Super Bowl chances. Next week: vs. Baltimore (9-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (10): Cincy wanted a primetime game all year to prove doubters wrong. After their first one, they’ve got more doubters than ever. Next week: vs. New York Jets (9-7)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (11): Bad play-calling and fourth quarter collapses killed them all season long and they have no one to blame for missing the playoffs but themselves. Next week: N/A
12. Tennessee Titans (12): I see no reason to drop them after a win and more specifically after the way they played in the second half of the season. Next week: N/A

The end of the regular season is usually a depressing time for fans, but at least we don’t have to sit through anymore AFC and NFC West games! I’ll have my playoff picks up sometime before the end of the week.

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NFL Week 17 Predictions

There was no wrap-up this week, so here are recaps of Week 16’s most important games:

Where were the Dolphins during the first half of their game against Houston? How can you come out as flat as they did, at home, in an elimination game? Going down 27-0 as early as they did is almost impossible to come back from and as a result, they’ll be reduced to the spoiler role this week against the Steelers.

The Patriots finally looked like themselves last week in their dismantling of the overachieving Jags. Tom Brady was just about perfect and the defense shut Jacksonville down. This is the New England team most thought they would see earlier on in the season.

One loss to the Cowboys is nothing to worry about. However, losing a 17-point lead to the Bucs at home is. Regardless of how things go this week, the Saints have a lot to work on before their first playoff game. Blowing such a big lead to a bad team is inexcusable.

Before the season, most thought that if the Giants didn’t make the playoffs, it would be due to their lack of a No. 1 receiver. What those people didn’t expect was how bad Big Blue’s defense has been. Matt Moore & Co. made the Giants look foolish all game long.

The Ravens let a golden opportunity slip through their hands. They had two or three chances to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs, but they couldn’t do it. Going to Oakland and winning shouldn’t be that difficult, but the Eagles and Bengals thought the same thing.

The Steelers are probably the most dangerous 8-7 team in the AFC, but they need help. Their fate lies in how much New England and Cincinnati value the three seed.

I have never liked the philosophy of resting all of your players with nothing to play for with more than a week left. The Colts did that in 2005 and lost their first playoff game, partly due to their timing-based offense finding its rhythm too late.

Jim Caldwell pulling his starters in the second half will probably end up giving his team two-and-a-half weeks without playing a meaningful game. How does that help? Yes, it ensures that no one gets injured, but the only guy that truly matters is Peyton Manning and he’s started over 100 straight games. It was just ridiculous and put poor Curtis Painter in one of the most horrible positions I can remember watching.

Caldwell’s decision really helped the Jets, though. The Jets were not going to win if the Colts’ starters had stayed in, so they caught a huge break.

Top 12 Teams (Last week’s ranking)

1. San Diego Chargers (2)
2. Indianapolis Colts (1)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (4)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6)
5. New Orleans Saints (3)
6. Arizona Cardinals (7)
7. Minnesota Vikings (5)
8. New England Patriots (8)
9. Green Bay Packers (10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (NR)
12. Tennessee Titans (11)

Week 17 Picks

Last week’s record: 10-6

Overall record: 159-81

Lock of the Week: 12-for-16

Indianapolis (14-1) @ Buffalo (5-10): Indy will rest its starters simply because if they don’t, Caldwell and Bill Polian look like complete idiots. This game means nothing right now, but this week off will haunt the Colts.

Buffalo wins, 19-13

Jacksonville (7-8) @ Cleveland (4-11): This game may decide Eric Mangini’s future. If it were up to me, he’d be gone regardless of the outcome of this game, but the Browns have had a great December. However, the Jags know that they still have a very slim chance to get into the playoffs with a win.

Jacksonville wins, 23-18

Philadelphia (11-4) @ Dallas (10-5): The Cowboys’ defense has been great the last two weeks. They will need to play at that same level to beat Philly again. Although, the Eagles almost blew it last week, they’ve been on fire for a while and the Cowboys will not be able to stop what they’re doing. Expect the close battle these two teams usually provide.

Philly wins, 30-27

Kansas City (3-12) @ Denver (8-7): Brandon Marshall’s benching changes the entire complexion of this game. Eddie Royal missed last week’s game, so what is Denver (particularly Kyle Orton) going to do to get points. The Chiefs have played well against Dallas and Pittsburgh, so they can beat a depleted Denver squad.

Kansas City wins, 19-17

Chicago (6-9) @ Detroit (2-13): Detroit’s season started off pretty well considering their expectations, but everything has fallen apart. The starting quarterback has been a revolving door and as a result, the team is playing bad football. The Bears aren’t the best team, but they’re definitely better than their counterparts.

Chicago wins, 26-10

Baltimore (8-7) @ Oakland (5-10): This season, the Raiders have beaten Cincinnati, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Denver. Can they do it again? Maybe, but I would bet against it. The Ravens let one slip through their hands last week and they won’t let that happen again.

Baltimore wins, 30-20

San Francisco (7-8) @ St. Louis (1-14): In terms of what this means on a league-wide basis, this is only important for the draft: Niners win and Rams have the first pick. However, for the Niners, this may go a long way in letting them know if Alex Smith will be their quarterback next year.

San Francisco wins, 26-12 (Lock of the Week)

Pittsburgh (8-7) @ Miami (7-8): If the Dolphins play like they did last week, the Steelers will make quick work of them. If not, this will come down to which team makes more plays in the fourth quarter. That basically translates to Ben Roethlisberger vs. Chad Henne, which is a pretty easy choice.

Pittsburgh wins, 30-17

New York Giants (8-7) @ Minnesota (11-4): The Vikings are this close to letting a first round bye slip from their grasp. The first step to regaining it is beating the Giants. Doesn’t sound very difficult, but the Vikes were very inconsistent in December. Regardless, they should still be able to push the Giants around a little bit.

Minnesota wins, 28-14

Green Bay (10-5) @ Arizona (10-5): This will probably be a weird game because it will probably happen again in the wild card round, which would mean that neither team wants to let the other see everything in their playbook. This will end up being a battle of JV squads, so I’ll go with the home team.

Arizona wins, 22-14

Washington (4-11) @ San Diego (12-3): I have no idea how San Diego is approaching this game, but if the ‘Skins play how they’ve been playing the last couple of weeks, it won’t matter.

San Diego wins, 19-10

Tennessee (7-8) @ Seattle (5-10): This one is all about Chris Johnson. He should get to 2,000 yards without a problem, as he needs only 128 yards in this game, but he unless he goes crazy—which isn’t out of the realm of possibility against Seattle—he won’t catch Eric Dickerson. Nonetheless, he and the Titans have had a great season.

Tennessee wins, 33-13

Atlanta (8-7) @ Tampa Bay (3-12): The Falcons are out of the playoffs, but this game means a lot because if they win, the Falcons will finally have back-to-back winning seasons. They will finally get it in a competitive game.

Atlanta wins, 23-16

New Orleans (13-2) @ Carolina (7-8): Believe it or not, the Panthers will be the hottest team in this game. New Orleans has a lot to sort out before their first playoff game in two weeks and Carolina will not make it easy for them. However, I don’t see the Saints going into the postseason on a three-game skid.

New Orleans wins, 26-20

New England (10-5) @ Houston (8-7): According to Tom Brady, he will play, but for how long? If he plays for at least three quarters, the Pats win. If not, Houston has a chance, but they are such an inconsistent team, that you never really know with them.

New England wins, 30-24

Cincinnati (10-5) @ New York Jets (8-7): This game falls into the same category as the New England-Houston game. Chad Ochocinco wants to play, but the decision is ultimately Marvin Lewis’. The Bengals are the superior team, but it all depends on who the Bengals put on the field. Nonetheless, I don’t have confidence that Mark Sanchez can get the job done.

Cincinnati wins, 21-16

Playoff Picture

First, let me give you the playoff picture the way I saw it just before the season started, beginning with the AFC:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Tennessee Titans

Here is how the AFC will look if the games go the way I think they will:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New England Patriots
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Here is the NFC at the beginning of the year:

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. New York Giants
6. Green Bay Packers

Here’s how I think it’ll look after Week 17:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Dallas Cowboys

This either shows that I have no idea what I’m talking about or that parity is alive and well in the NFL. I’ll go with the latter.

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NFL Week 16 Predictions

Last week’s record: 9-7

Overall record: 149-75

Lock of the Week: 12-for-15

San Diego (11-3) @ Tennessee (7-7): These two teams have lost a total of one game since Week Six. Something has got to give here. Obviously, Tennessee can’t absorb another loss, but they won’t stop what the Chargers are doing right now. The Titans have had trouble stopping good passing attacks all year, which is something Philip Rivers and his receivers can exploit.

San Diego wins, 27-21

Buffalo (5-9) @ Atlanta (7-7): The Falcons seemed determined to give the franchise its second consecutive winning season for the first time in its history. Neither team looks great coming into the game, but Atlanta’s twelfth man will be the difference in what will be a close one.

Atlanta wins, 16-10

Kansas City (3-11) @ Cincinnati (9-5): This may end up being closer than most expect, but the Chiefs will not win. The Bengals are getting ready to make a playoff run and the Chiefs are getting ready to watch the playoffs. Cincy will also clinch the AFC North when they win.

Cincy wins, 27-14

Oakland (5-9) @ Cleveland (3-11): A few weeks ago, this looked dreadful. It still doesn’t smell like roses, but both teams are coming in with momentum. Oakland looks like the better team, so they will end Cleveland’s two-game winning streak.

Oakland wins, 20-10

Seattle (5-9) @ Green Bay (9-5): Seattle looked absolutely pathetic last week. The Bucs should not be able to come in and dominate the way they did. The Packers gave up a lot of yards last week, but the Seahawks aren’t the Steelers. Green Bay should take care of business and wrap up a playoff spot.

Green Bay wins, 30-12

Houston (7-7) @ Miami (7-7): Whichever team loses this game is done. Chad Henne, outside of the overtime interception, looked pretty good last week, so the pressure won’t get to him at all. The same cannot be said for the Texans.

There have been two or three games this year that many have called the biggest game in the franchise’s history and they’ve lost them all. This is probably another one of those big games, but why would it be any different than the others?

Miami wins, 24-18

Jacksonville (7-7) @ New England (9-5): Although this is an elimination game for the Jags, it’s almost as important to the Pats. They haven’t wrapped up the division yet and they’ve looked average over their past few games. The Jags gave Indy a good game last week, but that’s typical in that match-up. They won’t play as well this week.

New England wins, 21-10

Tampa Bay (2-12) @ New Orleans (13-1): The Saints are coming off their first loss of the season and I can’t imagine they’re too happy about that. This will be a sacrifice.

New Orleans wins, 42-6

Carolina (6-8) @ New York Giants (8-6): The Panthers will undoubtedly put up a better fight than the Redskins did, but the Giants know that they cannot lose anymore. This will be extremely close until the end, but the Giants will pull it out because they want it more.

New York Giants win, 23-21

Baltimore (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7): The Ravens have been waiting a long time for this one. Ben Roethlisberger has beaten them four straight times, the last of which was for a berth in the Super Bowl. Baltimore knows that if it wins, the Steelers are done.

However, Pittsburgh took them to overtime in Baltimore without Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, and Aaron Smith. This will be extremely physical, but the Steelers will not let Baltimore eliminate them on their field.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-20

St. Louis (1-13) @ Arizona (9-5): Arizona has had trouble putting away teams that they should beat easily. It won’t be a big problem unless they lose here, or even if they have trouble shutting the door.

Arizona wins, 29-9

Detroit (2-12) @ San Francisco (6-8): The Lions have been killed by injuries, although that didn’t stop them from giving Arizona all they could handle last week. The Niners aren’t the offensive juggernaut that the Cards are, but they have still been putting up decent numbers recently. That will be enough to give them the win.

San Francisco wins, 19-13

New York Jets (7-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (14-0): The Jets aren’t a bad team, but they’ve got a rookie under center that can’t stop turning the ball over. Opponents of Indianapolis have to keep mistakes to a minimum and the Jets aren’t capable of doing that, which means their season ends in Indianapolis.

Indy wins, 26-7

Denver (8-6) @ Philadelphia (10-4): Denver’s loss to Oakland really hurts because now, this is a must-win. If this game was in Denver, it may be a different story, but in Philly, Denver will not win. The Eagles are playing much, much better than the Broncos are, not to mention Brian Westbrook’s return.

Philly wins, 31-18

Dallas (9-5) @ Washington (4-10): Dallas got a huge win last week while the Redskins were pathetic, embarrassing themselves and their fans. Dallas will destroy them.

Dallas wins, 30-16

Minnesota (11-3) @ Chicago (5-9): Minnesota will win this game easily, but the story will be whether or not Brett Favre and Brad Childress are on the same page. Childress made the team all about Favre when he brought him in and now he has to deal with all of the inevitable drama that Favre brings.

It won’t be a problem this week, but that along with Adrian Peterson not being much of a factor recently will be a problem in the playoffs.

Minnesota wins, 27-7 (Lock of the Week)

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NFL Week 15 Predictions

Last week’s record: 14-2

Overall record: 140-68

Lock of the Week: 11-for-14

Indianapolis (13-0) @ Jacksonville (7-6): Obviously this was written well after this game’s conclusion, but I had Indy winning a close, low-scoring game. I didn’t think it would be the shootout that it was.

Dallas (8-5) @ New Orleans (13-0): There’s no reason why Dallas’ December troubles should end here. Lance Moore will be returning for the Saints, which means more four-receiver sets that Dallas will not stop. The Cowboys may keep it close because of how slowly the Saints can start out, but the game will become a blowout in the third quarter.

New Orleans wins, 40-20

New England (8-5) @ Buffalo (5-8): If the Pats come out and take care of business like they should, they will win relatively easily. If they play like they did last week or even how they did in Week One, they may take a tough loss. Expect a little bit of both to happen, resulting in the road team getting the win.

New England wins, 24-13

Arizona (8-5) @ Detroit (2-11): Both teams are coming off of pretty bad losses, but one of these teams is much better than the other. All good teams have off weeks, and last week was Arizona’s. They won’t have another game like that.

Arizona wins, 35-17

Miami (7-6) @ Tennessee (6-7): Vince Young’s status is key in this game. The Titans still have an outside chance at the playoffs, and they need Young if they’re going to sweep the rest of their games. Kerry Collins was pretty bad as a starter this season, and the Dolphins are a good enough team to take advantage of bad decisions. Either way, the Dolphins pick up the win.

Miami wins, 21-16

Cleveland (2-11) @ Kansas City (3-10): This is going to be pretty bad. As long as the Chiefs keep Josh Cribbs in check, they’ll win.

Kansas City wins, 13-6

Houston (6-7) @ St. Louis (1-12): Houston looked the best they’ve looked in a long time in last week’s rout of the Seahawks. The Rams have looked bad all year and their only weapon, Steven Jackson, missed practice on Friday.

Houston wins, 27-3 (Lock of the Week)

Atlanta (6-7) @ New York Jets (7-6): The Falcons looked much better in week two of the Chris Redman era, but the Jets will make it pretty rough on him. The Jets need to keep the ball on the ground, play great defense, and keep the ball out of Mark Sanchez’s hands so he doesn’t screw anything up.

New York Jets win, 20-12

San Francisco (6-7) @ Philadelphia (9-4): San Francisco’s defense was great last week against the Cardinals, but can they do it two weeks in a row?

I say no.

Philly’s offense is on another level right now, even without the injured Brian Westbrook. Alex Smith and the offense won’t be able to keep up with Donovan McNabb and his offense.

Philly wins, 31-16

Chicago (5-8) @ Baltimore (7-6): Jay Cutler and Lovie Smith look like they can’t wait for this underwhelming year to be over. Cutler can’t keep the ball out of the other team’s hands, and the Ravens’ defense has looked better over the last few weeks, outside of the Green Bay game. Joe Flacco and Ray Rice will handle the rest.

Baltimore wins, 27-14

Oakland (4-9) @ Denver (8-5): No Bruce Gradkowski means a pathetic Oakland squad. Denver should destroy them and move one step closer to the playoffs.

And with the Raiders starting Charlie Frye over JaMarcus Russell, is there any way Russell’s back next season?

Denver wins, 30-10

Cincinnati (9-4) @ San Diego (10-3): This will probably end up determining who gets the second seed and a first-round bye. San Diego is on a ridiculous streak, and Cincy has had trouble beating the league’s top teams. The Chargers won’t be able to run the ball effectively, but they still have Philip Rivers, and that will be enough for the victory.

San Diego wins, 27-20

Green Bay (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-7): On paper, there is no reason to pick Pittsburgh. They’ve lost five straight games (three of which were to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns), and they looked lifeless last week. The Packers have looked great since the Tampa Bay loss, and they’re getting ready to make a playoff run. Regardless, the Steelers will not lose six straight games.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-23

Tampa Bay (1-12) @ Seattle (5-8): Both teams are bad, Tampa Bay is worse.

Seattle wins, 17-9

Minnesota (11-2) @ Carolina (5-8): Carolina gave the Pats a game last week, but the Vikings are better than New England. The Panthers won’t have the opportunity to hang around against a team as loaded as the Vikings.

Minnesota wins, 31-17

New York Giants (7-6) @ Washington (4-9): Based on how these two teams have played during the second half of the season, the Redskins are better. Couple that with the way the Giants’ defense has fallen apart, and you’ve go the formula for an upset.

Washington wins, 26-18

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NFL Week 14 Wrap Up

In the NFC, the playoff picture is finally starting to come into focus. Meanwhile, the AFC playoff picture is looking as jumbled as ever with the Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, and Jaguars all very much in the hunt for a wild card berth and the Steelers, Texans, and Titans all hanging on by the smallest of threads.

Cleveland (2-11) def. Pittsburgh (6-7), 13-6: As the end of the decade approaches, this has to go down as one of the most pathetic Steelers performances of the time period. They looked like they thought they could just show up and beat the Browns, and that falls on Mike Tomlin and his staff.

For the fifth consecutive week, the Steelers managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

New Orleans (13-0) def. Atlanta (6-7), 26-23: The Saints continue to find different ways to win. They haven’t really blown a team out since the first five or six weeks of the season, but they keep finding ways to stay undefeated. The Falcons rebounded nicely from the awful performance against Philly, but they couldn’t stop the Saints when they had to.

Green Bay (9-4) def. Chicago (5-8), 21-14: It’s time for people to stop proclaiming Jay Cutler as the next great quarterback. Yes, he can throw you back into a game, but more often than not he will throw you out of one. Chicago had the Packers on the ropes and then Cutler made a horrible decision that all but ended the game.

Green Bay has gotten on a very nice roll, which is essential for a playoff team during this time of the year.

Indianapolis (13-0) def. Denver (8-5), 28-16: Before this game I would have guessed that if Brandon Marshall had 21 catches for 200 yards and Peyton Manning turned the ball over three times, the Broncos would have won. However, like all great teams, Indy got the win without playing their best ball. Marshall went off, but it takes more than one player to beat this team.

Buffalo (5-8) def. Kansas City (3-10), 16-10: Buffalo won this game with under 100 passing yards. It wasn’t very impressive, but a win is a win.

Minnesota (11-2) def. Cincinnati (9-4), 30-10: Minnesota just bullied the Bengals all game. Cincy was never able to string anything together on offense, and they couldn’t stop the Vikes on defense. After a shaky performance in Arizona, the Vikings are right back on track.

New England (8-5) def. Carolina (5-8), 20-10: New England took longer to put Carolina away than I thought they would, but this game was all about Randy Moss. He had just one catch and some have said that he quit. I don’t know if he quit nor do I think it will end up being a problem, but he can’t let it happen again. The Pats are already underperforming and they don’t need too many more problems.

New York Jets (7-6) def. Tampa Bay (1-12), 26-3: Kellen Clemens was awful, but the Jets’ running game and defense dominated the inept Buccaneers, keeping them in the thick of the playoff hunt.

Miami (7-6) def. Jacksonville (7-6), 14-10: Not a pretty game at all, but this is how the Dolphins win games. Tony Sparano has made this team tough in his short stint and it shows in close, important games like this. The Jags can’t afford to lose another game, which means they will have to ride Maurice Jones-Drew to the finish line.

Baltimore (7-6) def. Detroit (2-11), 48-3: I refuse to believe that the Lions or Daunte Culpepper are as bad as they looked in Baltimore.

Houston (6-7) def. Seattle (5-8), 34-7: These aren’t the Seahawks who went to Super Bowl XL; they don’t have the firepower to overcome the kind of start they had in this game. This game makes you wonder why Houston doesn’t play like this more often.

Tennessee (6-7) def. St. Louis (1-12), 47-7: The Titans did what they needed to do with the only newsworthy item being Vince Young’s injury. He’s day-to-day though, so they should be fine.

Washington (4-9) def. Oakland (4-9), 34-14: Washington has been playing really well over the last month, and as a result, they can have a huge impact on how the NFC East ends up. Oakland collapsed when Bruce Gradkowski went down. JaMarcus Russell once again showed that he is not a good NFL quarterback and that the Raiders would be better off without him.

San Diego (10-3) def. Dallas (8-5), 20-17: It’s time for Wade Phillips to go. It was actually time for him to go a while ago, but it’s getting ridiculous now.

That may seem like an overreaction after two losses to two good teams, but he refuses to acknowledge the fact that he can’t get his team to win in December. They aren’t falling apart late in games like they have the past few years, which means these losses fall on the coaches.

The Chargers are on another planet right now. They are tearing the league up, but the question now becomes whether or not they can sustain it in the playoffs.

Philadelphia (9-4) def. New York Giants (7-6), 45-38: Speaking of being on another level, DeSean Jackson is starting to fall into a category with Dante Hall (in 2003) and Devin Hester as far as making big plays. The consistency with which he breaks plays open is amazing. It also further exposed how bad the Giants’ secondary is and how far their defense has fallen.

San Francisco (6-7) def. Arizona (8-5), 24-9: You can’t expect to win when you turn the ball over seven times. The 49ers defense was all over the field, harassing Warner & Co. all game long. Despite the loss, Arizona still controls their fate and Larry Fitzgerald returned to the game after going down with a scary looking injury.

Top 12 Teams (Last week’s ranking)

1. New Orleans Saints (1): As long as they keep winning, they’ll keep the top spot. Next week: vs. Dallas (8-5)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2): The same goes for Indy. They’ll hold onto one of the top two spots as long as they keep winning. Next week: at Jacksonville (7-6)
3. San Diego Chargers (4): They always start slow, but their current winning streak is amazing. Next week: vs. Cincinnati (9-4)
4. Minnesota Vikings (6): Great bounce back win against a good team. Next week: at Carolina (5-8)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (7): They have problems on defense, but their offense is great enough to cover it up. However, it will become a bigger problem once they get into the playoffs. Next week: vs. San Francisco (6-7)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (3): They’ve turned things around from last year, but they’ll be out very quickly in the playoffs if they can’t figure out how to beat great teams. They’ll have an opportunity against the Chargers. Next week: at San Diego (10-3)
7. Arizona Cardinals (5): They won’t turn the ball over seven times in one game again, so they should be fine. Next week: at Detroit (2-11)
8. New England Patriots (8): Something with them is not clicking right now. They need to figure out what that something is and fix it quickly. Next week: at Buffalo (5-8)
9. Green Bay Packers (9): Very quietly, they have righted most of what was wrong with them during the first half of the season. Next week: at Pittsburgh (6-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (10): They are here by default because Denver lost and I don’t think Miami is better. But, they are staring yet another losing December in the face heading into New Orleans. Next week: at New Orleans (13-0)
11. Denver Broncos (11): They played well in the loss at Indy. Next week: vs. Oakland (4-9)
12. Miami Dolphins (12): The way they win is rarely pretty, but they always seem to do it when they have to. Next week: at Tennessee (6-7)

That’s all for Week 14. Week 15 picks will be ready to go on Thursday.

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NFL Week 14 Predictions

Like a couple of weeks ago, there was no wrap-up for last week. Finals officially took over my life at the beginning of this week, so I didn’t have the time to write one. Here’s a very short version of what Week 13 provided us.

Michael Vick certainly had a big week. In the course of Philly’s dismantling of the struggling Falcons, Vick rushed for a score and passed for another against his former team. The Eagles are on a nice roll right now and they’ve shed the “quick-strike offense” tag, as they have shown that they can put together a long drive.

The Titans are probably out of the playoff race now, but they fought valiantly to get back into contention. The mere thought of a team starting out 0-6 and almost getting back to .500 in a month-and-a-half is amazing.

The Pats have lost three out of their last four, but I wouldn’t worry too much if I’m a New England fan. Two of those losses came on the road to the remaining undefeated teams (one of which they should have won) and they’re still in the AFC East driver’s seat.

They’ll get in, but the secondary is still a cause for concern.

Speaking of a lackluster secondary, the Steelers are in trouble. Not only did they lose a home game, but it was in December and it was to the Raiders. Unacceptable. They have not been able to close out games all year—they’ve had a fourth quarter lead in five of their six losses—and now they’re in a big hole. They can, however, still get in if they run the table.

On the winning side, Brad Gradkowski played very well in the fourth quarter. With late wins against the Bengals and the Steelers, the Oakland front office has to think about keeping him as the starter into next season.

Washington completely blew it against the Saints. They played extremely well up until the fourth quarter, when they imploded. New Orleans’ offense is way too explosive to let them have as many chances as the ‘Skins gave them. On the plus side, they’ve now played pretty well over the past month.

Christmas is coming up which means the Cowboys are checking out. Tony Romo actually played well (while Eli Manning didn’t), but the defense and special teams gave up too many big plays. Looking at the rest of Dallas’ schedule, they may have an extremely tough time finding two more wins, which may be what they need to win the NFC East.

Many fans have penciled in the Vikings and Saints into the NFC Championship Game. The Cards may have something to say about that. Like Philly, they’ve gotten on a roll and they know they can play with anyone. Arizona will be a very tough out when they get into the playoffs.

Top 12 Teams (last week’s ranking)

1. New Orleans Saints (1)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (4)
4. San Diego Chargers (5)
5. Arizona Cardinals (7)
6. Minnesota Vikings (3)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9)
8. New England Patriots (6)
9. Green Bay Packers (11)
10. Dallas Cowboys (8)
11. Denver Broncos (12)
12. Miami Dolphins (NR)

Week 14 Picks

Last week’s record: 10-6

Overall record: 126-66

Lock of the Week: 10-for-13

Pittsburgh (6-6) @ Cleveland (1-11): There’s no way I can see the Steelers losing this game. Their backs are firmly against the wall and they can’t lose anymore. The only game that the Browns have won saw their quarterback complete two passes, so if Pittsburgh losses this game, they don’t deserve to get into the postseason.

Pittsburgh wins, 28-17

New Orleans (12-0) @ Atlanta (6-6): Matt Ryan probably won’t play again and we saw last week the effect that can have on Atlanta’s offense. It was pretty bad and if they can’t keep up with the Saints, they will not beat them.

New Orleans wins, 36-13

Green Bay (8-4) @ Chicago (5-7): When Jay Cutler turns the ball over, the Bears lose. When he doesn’t, they can play with anybody. Unfortunately for them, Green Bay’s secondary is pretty good at taking the ball away. As long as the offense doesn’t make silly mistakes, the Pack should roll.

Green Bay wins, 27-17

Denver (8-4) @ Indianapolis (12-0): The Broncos have found their running game again, but will it be enough? The Colts have owned Denver over the past few years and with the way each team is playing, that won’t change this week. Indy has shown some chinks in the armor, but they’re the better team.

Indy wins, 26-18

Buffalo (4-8) @ Kansas City (3-9): The Bills seemed to have found new life recently while the Chiefs have been destroyed two weeks in a row. The Bills will definitely not dominate, but they should do enough to get the road win.

Buffalo wins, 24-20

Cincinnati (9-3) @ Minnesota (10-2): Adrian Peterson will have a pretty tough time running against this very stout defense. That will put the game on Brett Favre’s shoulders. If this were last year, Favre wouldn’t be able to handle that. However, he has played much better this year and he has plenty of weapons. Expect them to rebound from last week’s loss.

Minnesota wins, 26-20

Carolina (5-7) @ New England (7-5): This will not be close. That’s not to say that the Panthers are a bad team or that the Pats are a great team, but New England will come out angry and end this game in the first half.

New England wins, 40-20 (Lock of the Week)

New York Jets (6-6) @ Tampa Bay (1-11): Kellen Clemens will start, but it shouldn’t make much of a difference. The Bucs are pretty bad and although Clemens won’t set the world on fire, he will do enough to not blow the game. Thomas Jones should have a big day on the ground.

New York Jets win, 21-13

Miami (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5): Although they have the better record, the Jags may need this just as much as the Dolphins do. Jacksonville is not as good as their record says and they don’t have the ability to bounce back from these kinds of losses. Nonetheless, Miami is playing better and they need a win.

Miami wins, 20-17

Detroit (2-10) @ Baltimore (6-6): The Ravens have to clean up their play. They looked incredibly sloppy against the Packers and Joe Flacco is having trouble getting the ball to his receivers. However, Detroit is not capable of exploiting those weaknesses, so the Ravens should get a relatively easy win.

Baltimore wins, 23-14

Seattle (5-7) @ Houston (5-7): What has happened to the Texans? Two weeks ago, they were looking pretty good; now they are probably looking at another 8-8 season. With that said, they’re still better than the improving Seahawks.

Houston wins, 28-20

St. Louis (1-11) @ Tennessee (5-7): This will be all about Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson. Chris Johnson had a rare off-game against Indy and he’s on the better team, so the Titans win.

Tennessee wins, 30-16

Washington (3-9) @ Oakland (4-8): Both teams are playing a lot better than their records indicate. Washington has come painfully close in the past month to beating Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans. The Raiders got a great win last week, but the Redskins have shown that they are consistent.

Washington wins, 26-17

San Diego (9-3) @ Dallas (8-4): Philip Rivers has never lost in December while Tony Romo & Co. have always struggled during this month. Romo played very, very well last week, but it’s no longer about the offense—it’s all on the defense. They’ll play better than they did last week, but the Chargers have too many weapons at their disposal.

San Diego wins, 30-26

Philadelphia (8-4) @ New York Giants (7-5): I’m not convinced that the Giants are back on track yet and they will have a lot of trouble keeping up with the team speed that Philly possesses (assuming that DeSean Jackson plays). The Eagles are hitting their stride and Big Blue will not slow them down.

Philly wins, 31-20

Arizona (8-4) @ San Francisco (5-7): The Niners are not a bad team, but they can’t stay with the Cards. They caught them in Week One, but Arizona is playing extremely well right now and they will not lose a divisional game like this.

Arizona wins, 27-14

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NFL Week 13 Predictions

Last week’s record: 7-9

Overall record: 116-60

Lock of the Week: 9-for-12

New York Jets (5-6) @ Buffalo (4-7): Unlike their first encounter, I don’t expect the Jets to run for 200 yards, nor do I expect Mark Sanchez to throw a dozen interceptions. Nonetheless, I trust the Bills’ D more than the Jets’ offense. Buffalo’s been playing well lately and they know how to beat the Jets.

On a side note, why is this game in Toronto? People there could care less about the Bills or the Jets.

Buffalo wins, 20-16

Philadelphia (7-4) @ Atlanta (6-5): Unfortunately, injuries may go a long way in determining the outcome of this one. Matt Ryan will be out for the Falcons and DeSean Jackson is likely out for the Eagles. The Falcons really need a victory, but Chris Redman will not be able to pull out two in a row.

And just as a subplot, Michael Vick makes his return to the Georgia Dome. Expect him to see two or three more plays than he usually does, especially if this is a blowout.

Philly wins, 26-17

St. Louis (1-10) @ Chicago (4-7): The Bears are in a horrible stretch. Jay Cutler can’t stop throwing interceptions and the defense just can’t stop anybody. Steven Jackson will have a great game, but it’ll all be irrelevant because Kyle Boller will most likely start.

Chicago wins, 16-8

Detroit (2-9) @ Cincinnati (8-3): It doesn’t really matter who the Lions put under center this week because whoever it is will be staring at a pretty good defense. The improvement the Bengals have shown on that side of the ball is remarkable.

Cincy wins, 24-13

Tennessee (5-6) @ Indianapolis (11-0): This is where we find out how good the Titans are. They are catching Indy at a pretty good time—when they are constantly coming from behind. With Chris Johnson running like he is, the Colts won’t have the success they’ve had if they fall way behind again.

I’m sure that the Colts have heard a lot of that this week, so don’t expect them to start slow again. They know that if they lose this game, they may see the Titans again in six weeks.

Indy wins, 30-20

Denver (7-4) @ Kansas City (3-8): The Broncos are seemingly back on track and in line for a playoff spot, so I can’t see them losing. With Indy and Philly coming up, they have to beat bad teams.

Denver wins, 26-10 (Lock of the Week)

Oakland (3-8) @ Pittsburgh (6-5): The Steelers have to do a better job protecting the ball and stopping returns. If they do those two things, they win going away. If not, they have another unnecessarily close game on their hands that could cost them a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh wins, 27-7

New Orleans (11-0) @ Washington (3-8): After Monday night’s big win, this is a potential letdown game for the Saints. Don’t expect them to have one. They seem to genuinely want to go undefeated and the Redskins will not deter them.

New Orleans wins, 31-14

Tampa Bay (1-10) @ Carolina (4-7): This may be Tampa’s best chance to get their second victory, but Bucs fans shouldn’t count on it. Jake Delhomme should be able to have a decent game against Tampa’s secondary which also means Carolina’s running game will have a nice afternoon.

Carolina wins, 20-12

Houston (5-6) @ Jacksonville (6-5): The Jags were sitting in a very nice position before they lost last week. Now they face a desperate team in need of a win. Houston’s offense is still very explosive and if the Jags couldn’t stop San Francisco, they won’t stop Houston.

Houston wins, 28-20

San Diego (8-3) @ Cleveland (1-10): Cleveland is the worst team in the league and San Diego’s been on fire over the last several weeks. Tough decision.

San Diego wins, 37-9

Dallas (8-3) @ New York Giants (6-5): There are a few things we can count on around this time of year and one of those is the Cowboys collapsing. It will probably happen again this year, but it won’t start this week. The Giants can’t run the ball and their defense hasn’t been all that great. Dallas should end the Giants’ playoff hopes this week.

Dallas wins, 27-17

New England (7-4) @ Miami (5-6): New England’s defense got pushed around all over the field against the Saints, so I expect them to come out a little bit angrier than normal. Miami is not New Orleans in any way, so the Pats shouldn’t have too much of a problem controlling the flow of the game.

New England wins, 28-16

San Francisco (5-6) @ Seattle (4-7): This is a big game for the 49ers and I expect them to play as such. The Seahawks have been killed by injuries and should really be no match for teams better than they are. San Francisco is one of those teams.

San Francisco wins, 21-13

Minnesota (10-1) @ Arizona (7-4): If the Vikings can manage to get into January with just one loss, they may still get home field throughout the playoffs. This is a huge game in that regard. There’s also a very realistic possibility that these two teams will meet again before February.

A lot of this game hinges on whether or not Kurt Warner is ready to go. Matt Leinart played pretty well last week, but the Cards have a better chance to win with Warner. Assuming Warner plays, the Cardinals will win. They now know how to win big games and the Vikes have been playing a bunch of bad teams lately.

Arizona wins, 30-26

Baltimore (6-5) @ Green Bay (7-4): There is a lot riding on this game for the Ravens, but I can’t see them going into Green Bay and winning. They’re not as good as they were last year and the Packers have strung together a few good performances since the Tampa Bay debacle. Green Bay will have the Ravens on their heels all game long.

Green Bay wins, 30-17

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NFL 2009 Week 12 Wrap-Up

There are just five weeks left in the regular season and the best team in the league has clearly established itself, while others are scrambling to get a playoff spot. This is the time of year when one team gets ridiculously hot and goes into the playoffs on fire. The final part of the season will let us know who that team is this year.

Green Bay (7-4) def. Detroit (2-9), 34-12: Predictably, the Pack destroyed the Lions. The biggest question coming out of the game was why in the world was Matthew Stafford left in the game? He was clearly in pain, and should have been pulled after the game got out of hand.

Dallas (8-3) def. Oakland (3-8), 24-7: Another predictable Thanksgiving beatdown. Oakland had their opportunities but could not take advantage. The Cowboys are now in position to all but eliminate the Giants from playoff contention next week.

Denver (7-4) def. New York Giants (6-5), 26-6: The Giants looked pathetic in the first half. Denver controlled all of the action, and the G-Men looked like they just wanted to get out of Denver. It’s time for Giants fans to accept the fact that this is just an average team that got off to a great start due to a soft schedule.

This was also a huge win for Denver. Prior to this victory, their season looked to be unraveling. Now they have the inside track to a playoff spot.

Atlanta (6-5) def. Tampa Bay (1-10), 20-17: The entire complexion of this game changed when Matt Ryan went down, but Chris Redman was able to hold everything together and get his team a much needed win. Josh Freeman played well enough to win, but Redman threw an almost perfect pass for the game winner.

Buffalo (4-7) def. Miami (5-6), 31-14: Well this was certainly unexpected. A very early turning point came when Ricky Williams threw an interception in the end zone. That seemed to give Buffalo a confidence boost that Miami could never match. This loss is a huge blow to Dolphins’ playoff hopes.

Cincinnati (8-3) def. Cleveland (1-10), 16-7: Not an overly impressive victory for the Bengals, but it got the job done. This game was relatively close in the second half, but then the Bengals showed why they are where they are, and the Browns did the same.

Tennessee (5-6) def. Arizona (7-4), 20-17: When Arizona downed their last punt at the Tennessee one-yard line, I thought the game was over. Vince Young proved me wrong with an excellent drive that saw him use his arm more than he did his legs. He and Chris Johnson have gotten this team back to respectability, beating a very good Arizona team in the process.

Seattle (4-7) def. St. Louis (1-10), 27-17: All this game did was reinforce my theory that you should never trust a team that starts Kyle Boller.

Minnesota (10-1) def. Chicago (4-7), 36-10: Chicago barely put up a fight. While the Bears got into the fetal position, the Vikes continued their spectacular play, keeping pace with the perfect Saints.

New York Jets (5-6) def. Carolina (4-6), 17-6: Jake Delhomme’s nightmare season continued in the Meadowlands with another forgettable performance. This loss almost certainly eliminates the Panthers for the year, while the Jets did just enough to stay in it in the AFC.

Philadelphia (7-4) def. Washington (3-8), 27-24: The Eagles were very fortunate to get out of this with a win. Washington’s underrated defense did all they could to stop the big plays they gave up in their first meeting this year, and the offense played a pretty clean game, but Donovan McNabb and Co. engineered a second half drive that got them out of a slump and propelled them to the win.

Indianapolis (11-0) def. Houston (5-6), 35-27: Houston will never get to the next level if they can’t shut the door. Granted they lost a lead to the Colts, but they still collapsed—and it wasn’t just the defense. The offense kept giving the ball to Indy in horrible spots.

The issue for Indy is whether or not they can keep coming from behind like this. Teams better than Houston may make them pay if Indy finds itself in a similar situation.

San Diego (8-3) def. Kansas City (3-8), 43-14: This is how most expected the Chargers to play all year. As they ready themselves for the stretch run they need to dominate bad teams like this. They put on a great performance, bringing the Chiefs back down to Earth.

San Francisco (5-6) def. Jacksonville (6-5), 20-3: Great all-around performance for the Niners. San Fran picked Jacksonville apart all day, and the Jags couldn’t get anything going. The Niner offense played a very crisp game with Alex Smith playing the best he’s played in a while.

Baltimore (6-5) def. Pittsburgh (6-5), 20-17: This was a must-win for the Ravens considering the circumstances. They were facing a third string quarterback on a division opponent that beat them three times last season. The Steelers still almost won, but with the loss, they may need to win out to get into the playoffs.

New Orleans (11-0) def. New England (7-4), 38-17: The Saints put on an offensive clinic against a decent defense and pretty much dominated this very high profile game. At one point, the Pats cut New Orleans’ lead to 24-17, and in what seemed like two minutes, the Saints pushed the lead back to 14 and the game was over.

New Orleans’ defense also deserves a ton of credit. Tom Brady looked uncomfortable, and they basically eliminated Wes Welker from the game. There were times when the Pats looked lost on offense. Think about that for a little while.

Top 12 Teams (Last week’s ranking)

1. New Orleans Saints (1): There was a slight question as to whether or not they were the best team in the league prior to Week 12. The question was erased after their convincing win over the Pats. Next week: at Washington (3-8)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2): They had to come from behind again, but the most important thing is that they won. Next week: vs. Tennessee (5-6)
3. Minnesota Vikings (3): The way they completely overwhelm bad teams is amazing. Next week: at Arizona (7-4)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (5): As long as they don’t have a meltdown, the AFC North is theirs. Next week: vs. Detroit (2-9)
5. San Diego Chargers (8): They are finally starting to play consistently. Can they keep it up against good teams? Next week: at Cleveland (1-10)
6. New England Patriots (4): Looking bad against a great team is nothing to be ashamed of, but the defense looked really, really bad. Next week: at Miami (5-6)
7. Arizona Cardinals (6): They played well enough to win with their backup QB in, so they don’t fall very far. Next week: vs. Minnesota (10-1)
8. Dallas Cowboys (9): Not an impressive performance, but this isn’t the BCS so all that matters is the win. Next week: at New York Giants (6-5)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (10): It’s time for them to play more consistently, which will be difficult if DeSean Jackson is out for a few weeks. Next week: at Atlanta (6-5)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7): Dennis Dixon played very well, and was not the reason for the loss. They should be fine if they can get healthy in time for the Green Bay game. Next week: vs. Oakland (3-8)
11. Green Bay Packers (11): They handled their business on Thanksgiving. If the offense can play the way they did against Detroit, they can beat any team. Next week: vs. Baltimore (6-5)
12. Denver Broncos (NR): Their most recent win could have been a season-saving one. They finally looked like the same team that started the season at 6-0. Next week: at Kansas City (3-8)

Team to Fall Out of the Top 12

Houston Texans: The way they played in the second half was deflating. They know how to beat bad teams; now they need to figure out how to beat the great ones.

That’ll do it for this week. Picks for Week 13 will be in on Thursday afternoon.

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NFL Week 12 Predictions

This article is going to be a little bit different from my other prediction articles as I didn’t have a chance to write the wrap-up this week. I’ve been pretty busy this week with school and going home for the holiday and I figured that it wasn’t really worth doing the wrap-up when I would just end up making predictions a day later.

So here’s a mini-version of my usual end of the NFL week article for Week 11:

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Steelers did go wrong. Losing to the Chiefs is simply inexcusable and now they are in a virtual must-win against Baltimore. Kansas City deserves a lot of credit, but Pittsburgh should not have lost this game.

Ben Roethlisberger should be able to go in Baltimore, but the Steelers are in trouble if he can’t in the wake of Charlie Batch’s injury.

Dallas needs to find their offense. Tony Romo didn’t complete a pass to a wide receiver until very late in the game and they barely got past the ‘Skins. They need to get back to establishing the run and putting up a lot of points.

The Browns continue to find new ways to lose games. They jumped out to a big lead on a bad team, but couldn’t stop a badly injured rookie from throwing the game-winner. On the other side, Matthew Stafford won’t play for the next few weeks, but he established himself as a leader with his play.

Is there a way for a team to feel worse after a win than Green Bay probably does? They almost lost a big second half lead then found out afterwards that two of their best defensive players, Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, are done for the year. Heck, the Niners may feel better after this game than the Pack do.

It’s been a while since the Giants got a victory, but they finally got one against the Falcons. However, they lost Brandon Jacobs and the once vaunted defense gave up late scores that almost cost them their fifth straight loss. They still have a lot to fix.

If the Browns keep finding new ways to lose, then the Colts keep finding different ways to win. Their fourth quarter goal line stand was huge and their ability to force turnovers kept Indy undefeated. Baltimore had a chance to win at the end, but they couldn’t overcome their mistakes.

The Broncos can forget about winning the AFC West. They are only a game down, but they will not overcome the combination of their losing streak with the way the Chargers completely dominated them. Losing a three and a half game lead in the course of a month is too much for Denver to get over.

This time last week the Bengals were being heralded as one of the best teams in the league. That’s not necessarily wrong, but great teams don’t lose games to Oakland. They turned the ball over and the Raiders actually took advantage. Shocking, I know. Fortunately for Cincy, the Steelers didn’t gain any ground on them.

What has happened to the Jets? They’ve been pretty horrible since their 3-0 start. The Pats completely dominated them and the 31-14 final isn’t an indication of how one-sided this was. This was a complete beat down.

Steelers fans know how reliable Kris Brown is in the clutch. He’s starting to show Texans fans the same thing. Obviously he’s not the sole reason they lost, but his final kick wasn’t even close. Now at .500, the Indy game is a must-win if they want any shot at a Wild Card.

The Titans just continue to win with Vince Young playing mistake-free ball and Chris Johnson running anywhere he wants to. They still won’t make the playoffs, but they are making teams sweat.

Finally, here are the top 12 teams, with their previous ranking in parenthesis:

1. New Orleans Saints (1)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2)
3. Minnesota Vikings (3)
4. New England Patriots (5)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (4)
6. Arizona Cardinals (7)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6)
8. San Diego Chargers (9)
9. Dallas Cowboys (8)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (10)
11. Green Bay Packers (NR)
12. Houston Texans (11)

Week 12 Picks

Last week’s record: 12-4

Overall record: 109-51

Lock of the Week: 8-for-11

Green Bay (6-4) @ Detroit (2-8): To start off the horrible Thanksgiving Day schedule, Green Bay will travel to Detroit. The Lions will be without Calvin Johnson and Stafford, so the Packers will have to work to lose this one. They will overcome their injuries and get an easy win.

Green Bay wins, 27-12

Oakland (3-7) @ Dallas (7-3): Who decided Oakland should play on Thanksgiving? Anyway, as long as Dallas doesn’t turn the ball over in droves, they’ll send their crowd home happy.

Dallas wins, 18-7

New York Giants (6-4) @ Denver (6-4): Denver really, really needs this game. They’ve been bullied and pushed around for a month now and they can only absorb so many losses before they fall completely out of it. The Giants haven’t looked great in a while, but they will do just enough to continue Denver’s woes.

New York Giants win, 27-18

Tampa Bay (1-9) @ Atlanta (5-5): Atlanta is in a pretty bad stretch so Tampa is a good opponent for them. The Bucs have looked much better over the last month or so, but Atlanta will win in a blowout. They need something to spark them and this game will provide that.

Atlanta wins, 36-13

Miami (5-5) @ Buffalo (3-7): Terrell Owens will need a repeat of last week if Buffalo is going to steal this one. Their offense is usually pretty bad, but they will lose the game on defense. They can’t stop the run to save their collective lives and Miami is a great running team.

Miami wins, 21-9

Cleveland (1-9) @ Cincinnati (7-3): If we can go by this season’s stats, Cleveland probably won’t put up more than six points over each of the next few weeks. Cincinnati will come out angry and destroy Cleveland, although I said the same about Pittsburgh last week after their loss to these Bengals.

Cincy wins, 30-6

Arizona (7-3) @ Tennessee (4-6): The Cards are undefeated on the road and Tennessee has won four straight; one of those streaks will obviously end. Kurt Warner is dealing with the head injury, but Tennessee won’t be able to get to him enough to make that a huge factor.

During their winning streak, the Titans have hung around until the fourth quarter and eventually taken the lead. They will not have the ability to do that here because the Cards will simply outscore them and the Titans are not a quick-strike offense.

Arizona wins, 26-20

Seattle (3-7) @ St. Louis (1-9): There’s really no logic in picking games between two bad games, but for whatever reason, I think the Rams will get their second victory on the broad shoulders of Steven Jackson.

St. Louis wins, 17-13

Chicago (4-6) @ Minnesota (9-1): Chicago really needs this game as they’re only a couple of losses away from focusing on April’s draft. At this point, the Vikes are gearing up for the playoffs so the Bears may catch them sleeping, but Minnesota’s playing too well to lose to an average team.

Minnesota wins, 28-16

Carolina (4-6) @ New York Jets (4-6): Amazingly, the Jets would still be very much in the playoff race with a victory. That would mean something if they were playing well. Right now Carolina is playing better football. If they run the ball to open up the pass, they’ll get the win.

Carolina wins, 19-14

Washington (3-7) @ Philadelphia (6-4): This game will be similar to their match-up a few weeks ago. Washington’s defense will play relatively well, but give up a few big plays that go for touchdowns.

Philly wins, 26-10

Indianapolis (10-0) @ Houston (5-5): The games in this match-up in Houston have been very close and this will be the same. The Texans have to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands for as long as possible, which means the running game will have to be huge. If the defense can keep Manning out of the end zone, they have a great chance to win.

If this game comes down to Kris Brown, forget everything I said about this game because the Colts will win.

Houston wins, 24-17

Kansas City (3-7) @ San Diego (7-3): Kansas City will not win three straight games. The Chargers are on a roll and the Chiefs will only be a speed bump. They may make it close, but they won’t pull the upset.

San Diego wins, 23-13 (Lock of the Week)

Jacksonville (6-4) @ San Francisco (4-6): With a win, Jacksonville will be in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth. If they jump out to an early lead, the game will be over with Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball. The Niners need to stop the running game and put up points, but Alex Smith has started out extremely slow in most games this year. San Fran is not built to make comebacks so the Jags get a nice road win.

Jacksonville wins, 24-18

Pittsburgh (6-4) @ Baltimore (5-5): The three games between these teams last season were vicious. That alone makes this extremely dangerous for Ben Roethlisberger. Concussions are tricky to begin with and Baltimore will be out for blood. If Roethlisberger can stay relatively clean (a big if), he can pick Baltimore’s defense apart.

Pittsburgh wins, 21-13

New England (7-3) @ New Orleans (10-0): This will be an very entertaining, high-scoring affair. We all know what each of these offenses can do so the key will be which defense can get stops. I trust Bill Belichick’s schemes more than I do Gregg Williams’ so the Saints’ undefeated season will die here.

New England wins, 37-31

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NFL Week 11 Predictions

Last week’s record: 7-8

Overall record: 97-47

Lock of the Week: 7-for-10

Miami (4-5) @ Carolina (4-5): Before Ronnie Brown was placed on IR, Miami was an easy pick. However, Brown is such a big part of the Dolphins’ success that it will not be easy to replace him, especially during a short week. Carolina played their most complete game of the year last week and they’re at home, so expect them to win a close one.

Carolina wins, 19-14

Washington (3-6) @ Dallas (6-3): Dallas slipped up a little bit in Green Bay, but they should get back on track here. Washington is pretty bad and there’s no way that the Cowboys let them come into Cowboy Stadium and win this game. Dallas will blow this open in the second half.

Dallas wins, 30-13 (Lock of the Week)

Cleveland (1-8) @ Detroit (1-8): It’s a sad state of affairs when the most relevant thing about the Browns right now involves LeBron James. Nonetheless, the Browns’ offense is an embarrassment and Detroit is improving, so the home team takes it.

Detroit wins, 21-9

San Francisco (4-5) @ Green Bay (5-4): This is an extremely important game because the loser has a long, difficult climb into the playoffs. The Niners won last week, but they didn’t play particularly well, while the Pack looked fantastic against Dallas. Green Bay can be inconsistent, but if they play anything like they did last week, don’t expect them to lose.

Green Bay wins, 24-16

Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Kansas City (2-7): Unless the Chiefs play like they did against the Cowboys, this will be a blowout. Pittsburgh will probably come out a little upset after last week’s loss, so Kansas City’s offense will get beat up pretty badly.

Pittsburgh wins, 28-6

Seattle (3-6) @ Minnesota (8-1): The Seahawks will not win this game. Minnesota is playing on another level and Seattle is too beat up on defense to bottle up Brett Favre and his weapons. Seattle may keep it close for a little while, but they’re not leaving with a win.

Minnesota wins, 27-17

Atlanta (5-4) @ New York Giants (5-4): The Giants have to win this game. They will not make the playoffs if they lose five in a row. Atlanta can still afford to eat a loss, if only for the psyche of the two teams. The Giants should win this on pure determination, as they understand how important this game is.

New York Giants win, 20-14

New Orleans (9-0) @ Tampa Bay (1-8): This is a trap game for the Saints. They have faced a string of bad teams and they have a big Monday night game next week with the Pats. There’s a possibility, especially with how they’ve been playing lately, that they look past the improving Bucs and lose. It won’t happen, but this will not be a blowout.

New Orleans wins, 26-17

Buffalo (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4): The Jags can really get on a roll if they beat Buffalo. Their remaining schedule isn’t particularly tough and they are playing their best ball of the season. The key for Buffalo will be turnovers. They’re good against the pass, but they won’t stop Maurice Jones-Drew.

Jacksonville wins, 24-17

Indianapolis (9-0) @ Baltimore (5-4): This may end up being a blowout. Baltimore’s defense is living off of reputation and Peyton Manning is playing at the highest level he’s ever played. If Baltimore can get a couple of big plays on Indy’s young secondary, they may be able to pull off the upset, but they couldn’t even put up big numbers on Cleveland’s sorry defense.

Indy wins, 34-24

Arizona (6-3) @ St. Louis (1-8): The Cardinals are beginning to hit their stride. St. Louis is starting to look like an NFL team and they took the Saints down to the wire last week. With that said, the Cards won’t come out as sloppy as the Saints did, although Arizona would be wise to shut the door early.

Arizona wins, 27-17

San Diego (6-3) @ Denver (6-3): Denver’s hopes may hinge on whether or not Kyle Orton is able to go. Chris Simms hasn’t been the same since the serious injury he got in Tampa and he hasn’t played in a big game in years. San Diego is on a hot streak, while Denver is in the midst of another collapse.

Denver won the first game, but this may be more important for them. Their defense has to become more aggressive and the offense must make big plays. Unfortunately for them, the Chargers will just be too much for them.

San Diego wins, 23-18

Cincinnati (7-2) @ Oakland (2-7): The Raiders have finally benched JaMarcus Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski, but ultimately, it won’t matter. The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league and should win handily.

Cincy wins, 24-10

New York Jets (4-5) @ New England (6-3): Despite Bill Belichick’s controversial decision, the Pats are still one of the best teams in the league and I’m sure they haven’t forgotten all of the trash that the Jets talked leading up to their Week Two matchup. Nine weeks later, the Jets are a mess and the Pats are much better. Expect New England to blow this open late in the game.

New England wins, 35-21

Philadelphia (5-4) @ Chicago (4-5): This will come down to turnovers as both teams have a tendency to become very sloppy. Obviously, Brian Westbrook will not play, taking a weapon from Donovan McNabb, but McNabb should still have enough against Chicago’s average defense.

Philly wins, 20-13

Tennessee (3-6) @ Houston (5-4): If Houston gives him a chance, Chris Johnson will take this game over. The Texans must contain him and make Vince Young to beat them, which Young has not been forced to do this year. Tennessee can’t allow Houston’s passing attack to get going, but they haven’t showed they can do that either.

Houston wins, 28-24

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