Cutler-Orton: Statistical Comparison Of The Season

Perhaps the biggest topic of conversation this past preseason was over the Cutler-Orton trade.

Many people, not just Bears’ fans, felt they had the best end of the deal, getting a Pro Bowl gunslinger while giving up a weak-armed check-down passer.

Most Bronco fans were glad to get rid of Cutler after his fight with management. His poor red zone percentages also played a role in Denver’s joy.

Now, after eight weeks of regular season play, how do the two compare? Who really got the better end of the deal? While many points may go into a debate on a player’s skills, statistics provide an even playing field.

Jay Cutler – Cutler is 153-239 passing, 63.6% Comp., 1677 yards, 7.02 YPA, 11 TDs, 11 INTs, and 80.8 Rating

Kyle Orton – Orton is 147-231 passing, 64.0% Comp., 1617 yards, 7.00 YPA, 9 TDs, 1 INT, and 95.5 Rating.

It is easy to compare stats, as they both have had near identical attempts passing. Both are virtually the same in completion percentage, Cutler holding a microscopic lead in that category.

Yards are very similar as well. Cutler has 60 more yards. Again, almost identical with a 0.02 percent difference in yards per attempt.

The differences are in the last three stats. Cutler has thrown two more TDs than Orton. However, Cutler has thrown 10 more INTs than Orton. This has earned Orton a 95.5 rating, while Cutler owns a career-low 80.8.

Orton has not shown skill running, posting a 1.8 average. He has fumbled once.

Cutler has been more eager to run, with a 4.6 average, one TD, and four fumbles.

Although statistics are not the only thing that need to be taken into consideration when judging a quarterback, many will agree that Orton has a significant edge on Cutler.

Orton has done what he was expected to do, which is to make smart decisions and manage games. As a result, he has been pleasantly effective.

Cutler has done what was expected of him (at least by Broncos fans). He’s gone for home run and highlight plays, even if they were bad decisions. As a result, he has the same number of INTs as TDs.

Orton and the Broncos have a 6-1 record. Cutler and the Bears have a 4-3 record.

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Starting Four: A Comparison of Bronco Quarterbacks

Over the course of the summer, I have been surprised at the vast number of articles written against Denver. Of course, the arguments rage around two of the biggest switches in the league this year. The hiring of HC Josh McDaniels and trade of Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton (and some draft picks) have combined to make for a good topic.

However, a lot of the arguments are based on opinion, whether you think the changes help or hurt the team. What do statistical facts tell?

In order to compare the two QBs, I have also added the 2005 Broncos under Jake Plummer and the 1993 Broncos under John Elway.

Both Plummer and Elway led their teams to playoff appearances. Culter and Orton did not. So what makes for a playoff QB?

 

Jake Plummer: Plummer was, by many statistics, the best QB Denver has had. Of the four, he has the highest average at 7.4 yards. He completed 277 passes for 3366 yards. He also threw for 18 touchdowns. Most importantly, he threw only seven interceptions.

Jay Cutler: Cutler was outstanding at some points, but dismal at others. He averaged a very respectable 7.35 yards. His 62.5 percent completion was the best on the list. Jay also threw 25 touchdowns due to the massive 616 attempts.

Kyle Orton: Orton has some poor stats, though he did lack the receiver strength that the other three QBs had. He was lowest in average, managing only 6.39 yards. He completed 272 passes and earned a 58.5 completion percentage. Kyle also had 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

John Elway: The comparison could not be complete without the best QB to play for Denver, using the best season the team had. He had a 7.2 average. He completed 280 passes, but had a mere 55.8 completion percentage. However, he was a scoring machine, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions.

With such a wide range of stats, it can seem difficult to determine advantages amongst the QBs. However, I broke down the stats to determine how each would do if they threw 500 passes.

 

Jake Plummer: Plummer would complete 304 passes, throw 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He would also gather 3,700 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:25.33 and an INT ratio of 1:65.143.

Jay Cutler: Cutler would complete 312 passes, throw 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He would throw for 3,675 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:24.64 and an INT ratio of 1:34.22.

Kyle Orton: Orton would complete 293 passes, throw 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He would also get 3,195 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:25.83 and an INT ratio of 1:38.75.

John Elway: Elway would complete 279 passes, throw 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He would gain 3,600 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:18.593 and an INT ratio of 1:45.63.

 

So now you can each QBs stats. It should seem clear that Cutler is not the best QB Denver had, nor would he be second (behind Elway). His stats show that he belongs third, or in some stats, fourth on the list.

It seems that the best QBs do not throw for huge yardage, nor do they necessarily have high completion percentages. The QBs that led their team to the playoffs capitalized on opportunities, and did not throw interceptions.

Now, I know some people will blame the defense, the coach, the run game, or some other factor of the game that is not the QB. Sure the defense kept Denver out of the playoffs last year. However, it is still clear that the best QBs have certain strong points. Cutler was lacking on several of those.

Orton also is not the best at some of those strengths seen in the playoff QBs, but he has some areas that look good. He throws less interceptions than Cutler. Blame can also be placed on his O-Line, or the average at best receivers he had, but I will not debate those points now.

You’ve seen what makes a strong QB. The stats are there and show what each QB is. They show the players for who they truly are, and not for who they have been said they are.

NFC: Conference Rankings

For the next article in my team rankings, the NFC Conference will be covered. The division winners are the Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, and Arizona Cardinals. The two teams I have chosen for wild card teams are the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers.

The four teams in the first round of the playoffs will most likely be Chicago, Atlanta, New York, and Carolina. I believe that both wild card teams are good enough to advance to the next round. Carolina will beat Chicago, while New York easily beats Atlanta.

So the second round teams are Carolina, New York, Arizona, and Philedelphia. Since I’m not sure who will play who, I will just give the best team in the conference.

The team will win will probably be New York. Philadelphia lost because they still have a few weaknesses, primarily on the defensive side. Arizona may have a top offense, but is also weak in defense. Carolina made it only because the played a questionable team in Chicago. They are not as explosive as the other teams.

The New York Giants are the most likely team to go to the Super Bowl. They are well rounded and have enough talent to beat the other teams.

I’m sure you have opinions. If so, let’s hear them. Leave comments to prove why your team is the best in the Conference. Speak your mind.

AFC: Conference Rankings

The ranking of each division to find playoff teams has reached its conclusion, but it doesn’t end there.

Now that playoff teams have been decided, who will win the conference?

All teams that make the playoffs are talented, and so it gets harder to predict. Also, schedules become unclear, but it is not impossible.

To make it easier, I am not going to try to compare individual games. Instead, I will go round by round, determining who drops out and who moves on.

I have not picked the two wild card teams yet, but have decided that the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will become the remaining two teams. This brings the team count to six.

So in the first round it will most likely be Miami, Baltimore, New England, and Denver. Miami is a solid team so makes the wild card. Baltimore is denied a pass only because the Steelers are great. New England might not get a bye because of Brady’s injury and questionable comeback.

The AFC West is weak, so a bye is foolish to even think of.

I believe the two wildcard teams will move on. Denver (or as so many angry people have told me, San Diego) is not strong enough to defeat a team like Miami. New England, questionable enough from Brady, could struggle against a defense like Baltimore, and will lose a close game.

So the second one will be either Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or Tennessee. Since it is questionable who plays who, I will just declare the winner. I believe that the strongest team in the division will be Tennessee.

Pittsburgh may have won it all last year, but it is very hard to repeat. Tennessee has a solid defense and has improved the offense enough that they should become the winner of the Conference.

So the Tennessee Titans are going to the Super Bowl.

Can they win it? Is this their year?

Tell me what you think. I am sure many of you disagree or have opinions. So let me hear them.

My next article will be about the NFC. Watch for it to see who the NFC representative will be in the Super Bowl.

NFC South: Division Rankings

We look at the last division in the series. Today is the NFC South. A conference with talent, there are many options to consider.
However, I am not done yet. After this, I will begin to move to the playoffs with the teams I have chosen to win. So keep reading and look out for my next edition on the playoffs.

AFC South: Division Rankings

Today we continue with the breakdown and rankings of each division. This article will cover the last team in the AFC, the South. The South features four strong teams which creates for a difficult decision in how to rank. Each team can beat another, and all have some very good players. So without further ado, let us begin.

AFC North: Division Rankings

Continuing with the breakdown of each division in an attempt to determine who will make the playoffs this year, we head to the AFC North. I feel a little more confident with this division than I did in the East, where three teams could place second or lower. However, this being nothing more than educated guesswork and barring injury, I could be wrong. But I think I’m right.

AFC East: Division Rankings

This article is a continuation from my last article on the AFC West. I am breaking down each division in attempt to see who goes to the playoffs and who stays home.I have come up with the next rankings, this time on the AFC East. I am glad to continue, the heat I received from West fans made me glad to move on. I believe I have the correct order of the division. So here goes.

AFC East: Division Rankings

This article is a continuation from my last article on the AFC West. I am breaking down each division in attempt to see who goes to the playoffs and who stays home.I have come up with the next rankings, this time on the AFC East. I am glad to continue, the heat I received from West fans made me glad to move on. I believe I have the correct order of the division. So here goes.

AFC West: Division Rankings

As the season comes nearer, fans begin to get excited for their teams. Everyone has high hopes and has reasons to prove why their team is the best. But in the end only one team from each division can go to the playoffs. Those teams then have to win for a chance to become the best in the league. But what can we expect? Can we make an accurate prediction of who will win and who will lose? That’s just what this article does.

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