Like a playoff contender fading down the stretch, my picks have faltered as the regular season winds down.

Following a horrid 4-12 week, and a loss on Thursday night—see my mistake here: http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/12/17/week-15-thursday-night-pick/ , I’m now just 108-101 as week 15 begins.

My advice would be to see who I’ve picked, and go with the opposite team.

I haven’t been on the money in a while, and I certainly wouldn’t want anyone out there losing cash they probably need to use on presents this holiday season.

Without further ado, here are my selections for this week.

Saturday Night

New Orleans (-7) over Dallas

The Saints have made it clear that a 16-0 season is something they are shooting for. Despite all their close calls this season, the fact remains that the Saints are one of the two most dangerous teams in the NFL.

The Cowboys are a desperate bunch. Their postseason chances are slipping away, and the local and national media vultures are circling as another “December collapse” seems imminent. Dallas did however, play well last week despite losing to San Diego.

The Cowboys could play well against the Saints, also. However, the Saints are too much for Dallas right now, no matter how well they play. Dallas appears to have the talent to keep up with the Saints offensively, but their defense will struggle to keep the Saints in check.

Saints 34, Cowboys 24

Sunday

Green Bay (+2) over Pittsburgh

The Steelers will be a popular pick because they’re at home, they’re not favored by a lot, and their season is on the line right now.

Then again, the Steelers are already 6-7 and will need a Christmas Miracle in order to make it to the playoffs. Their offensive line is beat up and they will struggle to protect Ben Roethlisberger against an improved Packers’ defense.  There is also a growing sense that the coaching staff will be overhauled following this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers have improved in-season about as much as any team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is consistent and accurate, and their offensive line protects him much better than it did earlier in the season. On defense, Green Bay is benefiting from Charles Woodson’s best season, as well as noticeable development in their linebacking corps.

As determined as the Steelers claim to be, they will fall short in this game and in their quest to reach the postseason.

Packers 21, Steelers 18

Miami (+3) over Tennessee

This game features two run-oriented offenses on teams that are playing for their playoff lives.

Miami showed they can move the ball through the air against a mediocre pass defense in their recent win over New England.

Tennessee will rely heavily on Chris Johnson, as they should, while sprinkling in some runs and throws from Vince Young.

The Tennessee should win this game. Johnson is the more explosive of the two featured running backs in this game, the Titans are at home, and they’ve played extremely well in the last two months.

Given the high number of close games these teams have played this season however, along with their similar ball-control styles of play, I expect a close contest, hence the Miami pick.

Dolphins 23, Titans 21

Buffalo (+7) over New England

Buffalo won’t back down from this game.

Recall, the Bills played the Patriots to a near-standstill back in week one on the road and New England has yet to win a road game this season—on American soil. Additionally, the Bills have played better in recent weeks, winning two of their last three games.

Regardless of location though, the Patriots have not played well lately. Even last week at home, the Pats seemed to sleepwalk through the majority of their win over Carolina.

If ever there were a week for the Patriots to run the ball successfully, this would be it; Buffalo allows 170 yards per game on the ground.

New England will win this road game, but questions will be left unanswered about whether this team is a serious contender for another Super Bowl title.

Patriots 27, Bills 21

Arizona (-12) over Detroit

The Cardinals have played well on the road, for the most part. This week they face one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This season, following all five losses, the Cardinals have bounced back to win their next game in resounding fashion, and I expect nothing less from them this week.

Cardinals 37, Lions 20

San Francisco (+8.5) over Philadelphia

The Eagles’ offense has been great for nearly 10 weeks running, with the exceptions coming in losses to Oakland and Dallas. However, the Eagles’ defense has surrendered 20 or more points in five of their last six games, including 38 points to the Giants last Sunday night.

How the Eagles’ defense handles San Francisco’s still-developing offense will determine how close this game winds up being.

The 49ers have scored 20 or more points in four of the last six weeks and should have success against an average Eagles defense.

San Francisco is 9-4 against the spread; they almost always cover the spread when one would least expect it.

While I don’t believe the Eagles will lose this game, there is definite “trap game” potential here, so the pick is the 49ers.

Eagles 27, 49ers 20

NY Jets (-5) over Atlanta

Between the potential for a snowstorm, the cold weather environment, and the strong likelihood that Matt Ryan and Michael Turner both sit this game out, chances are good that the Jets cover this spread pretty easily.

The Jets have won three straight and face yet another team with a suspect run defense. Thomas Jones should provide the Jets’ offense with a touchdown or two, and the Jets’ pass defense should have little trouble shutting down the Falcons’ receivers.

Atlanta has lost six of eight, allowing 20 or more points in each loss. The Jets have enough firepower to reach or surpass 20 points and, with backups expected for two of their key players on offense, the Falcons seem likely to be on the wrong end of a big loss.

Jets 28, Falcons 17

Baltimore (-10.5) over Chicago

The Ravens’ defense isn’t great at limiting yardage and points.  However, the Jay Cutler-led-Bears commit a lot of turnovers, and the Ravens remain among the best at intercepting passes and forcing fumbles.

With the Steelers and Jaguars stumbling, the Ravens are in the thick of the AFC wildcard chase. Baltimore has been inconsistent offensively, but against a Bears defense that yields nearly 130 yards rushing per game, the Ravens’ Ray Rice figures to have a big game.

The only way the Bears can be competitive is if Jay Cutler plays error-free football, something he hasn’t proved capable of doing.

Ravens 31, Bears 15

Cleveland (+2) over Kansas City

Brady Quinn seems to be taking steps forward in his development as a starting QB in the NFL, while Matt Cassel has taken a step or two backward this season.

The Browns have also done a better job in getting Josh Cribbs on the field more, since the special-teams standout is by far their best player.

The Browns have shown more life than the Chiefs lately, and they’re 7-6 against the spread this season. Following their big win against division-rival Pittsburgh, Cleveland seems primed for consecutive wins for the first time this season.

Browns 17, Chiefs 13

Houston (-10.5) over St. Louis

As they demonstrated last week against the Seattle Seahawks, the Houston Texans are adept at obliterating bad teams. It’s about the only thing they do consistently well.

Steven Jackson, one of the great running backs in the NFL today, will have a big day against a poor Houston run defense. Outside of Jackson though, the Rams are woefully incompetent in all areas, and the Texans should have their way with St. Louis as a result.

Texans 37, Rams 10

Cincinnati (+6.5) over San Diego

When tragedy strikes a team, one of two things happens.

Either the team crumbles under the weight of their emotions and cannot handle playing on the field, or they rally around each other and are inspired to perform at their best in the wake.

Defensively, the Bengals have the personnel needed to slow the Chargers down when they have the ball on offense. Their cornerbacks can hang with the Chargers’ wide receivers as well.

Additionally, Cincinnati’s defense against the run is solid, certainly capable of containing the declining LaDanian Tomlinson.

The Chargers will still probably score 20 points against the Bengals. The question then is; can the Bengals outscore San Diego with their conservative run-first offense?

Perhaps this is the week Carson Palmer airs it out more, with Chad Ochocinco seeking to honor Chris Henry’s memory with a big game.

Bengals 24, Chargers 20

Denver (-14) over Oakland

The Raiders had played better football of late, but Bruce Gradkowski was under center for Oakland in the last few weeks.

Now, with Gradkowski probably out for the rest of the season, and the Raiders down on JaMarcus Russell, they will turn to third-string QB Charlie Frye to start this game.

Perhaps Oakland will surprise Denver. After all, the Broncos may not have much film on Frye to use in preparing to face Oakland this week.

However, the Broncos have done well at adjusting to opponents during games, and it should be expected that Denver will adapt to Frye and how he handles the Oakland offense.

More importantly, the Broncos should be able to run at will against a porous Oakland defense that allows over 150 yards rushing per game.

A Denver win doesn’t clinch a playoff berth, but it puts them in a tremendous position to do so, given how the rest of the AFC “contenders” have played in recent weeks. Surely, having that as motivation can only help.

Broncos 28, Raiders 10

Tampa Bay (+6.5) over Seattle

At the very least, this could be an entertaining game between two teams not going anywhere in 2009.

Why?

Well, Tampa Bay can’t stop the run, and the Seahawks have some running backs, namely Justin Forsett, who can pound the ball when given the chance.

Seattle struggles at defending the pass, and the Buccaneers have demonstrated they have no fear in letting rookie QB Josh Freeman air it out.

Conventional wisdom has the Seahawks winning. They are at home, where they have played markedly better this season, and the Seattle running game has the potential to keep Tampa Bay’s offense off the field, thanks to ball control and time of possession.

However, given that the strengths of both teams’ offenses could be successful in this game, the lead in this game could change hands a few times, resulting in a closer-than-expected final score.

Seahawks 31, Buccaneers 27

Minnesota (-9) over Carolina

Should Percy Harvin sit this game out? 

It would mean the Vikings will be missing one of their most important offensive players, and that could be enough for the Panthers to close the talent gap between these two teams, enough to cover the spread.

More likely though, the Panthers will struggle to keep up with the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense is strong against the run, and the Panthers won’t be able to generate much offense through passing the football.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are diverse enough offensively to perform well without Harvin.

Vikings 28, Panthers 13

Monday Night

Washington (+3) over NY Giants

The Giants’ defense has yielded 20 or more points in eight straight weeks. The Redskins’ offense is playing its best football right now.

This is a recipe for disaster for the Giants. Their playoff hopes are on life support, and their defense needs more than a jolt to its heart—it needs an overhaul, something that can’t happen in week 15 of the season.

Many will call this game an upset, but it’s hard to think of it that way should Washington win. Right now, they appear to be the better team, despite being without Clinton Portis.

Redskins 27, Giants 20

As it turned out, the best part of the long weekend was Thursday, both from a food and football standpoint. The highlight of my week was watching the Broncos dismantle the New York Giants, while eating some apple pie.

In terms of picks, it was all downhill from there. Between Sunday and Monday night, I went 4-9, running my season record to 97-79.

While I like the symmetry of the overall record, I don’t like posting an ugly week with the selections. Here’s the rundown of where I (mostly) went wrong:

Colts 35, Texans 27 (Houston, +3.5)

This pick was looking good until Matt Schaub hit Indianapolis linebacker Clint Session right in the chest with a pass, and Session returned the errant pass for a touchdown, giving the Colts a 28-20 lead with about eight minutes to go.

The ensuing Texans’ possession resulted in a forced fumble, as Schaub dropped back to pass. Indianapolis recovered the fumble and eventually scored another touchdown a few plays later.

The Texans seemed on their way to a signature win for the 2009 season, leading Indianapolis 17-0 at one point. Instead, it was another frustrating loss for the Texans. Meanwhile, the Colts have won 20 straight games in the regular season. Yawn. (0-1)

Bengals 16, Browns 7 (Cleveland, +14)

This was a game for fans of rushing-oriented offenses and good defensive play. The Bengals, behind new addition Larry Johnson, topped 200 yards rushing against the Browns. Cincinnati also limited the awful Browns’ offense to just 169 total yards.

Cincinnati’s conservative game plan was effective, and it was enough to get them the win. The big spread allowed the Browns to cover. (1-1)

Eagles 27, Redskins 24 (Philadelphia, -9)

I had a bad feeling about this game the moment the Eagles started with an onside kick that the Redskins recovered, giving them a short field. Four plays later, Washington led 7-0, and any hope I had of the Eagles covering a nine-point spread went kaput.

To the Eagles’ credit, they wound up making a spirited comeback to win the game and go to 7-4 on the season. With the play-off picture in both conferences becoming muddied by some poor performances from contending teams this week, the Eagles and Donovan McNabb stepped up when it mattered most. (1-2)

Bills 31, Dolphins 14 (Miami, -3)

Count the Dolphins among the “contenders” who had a bad week.

Miami led 14-7, following a 16-play, 83-yard touchdown drive that covered over nine minutes of game time at the start of the second half. The Bills responded with an impressive drive of their own, one that spanned 75 yards in 13 plays and tied the score at 14-14 early in the fourth quarter.

From there, the Bills’ defense clamped down on the Dolphins, allowing just four first downs the rest of the way. After taking a 17-14 lead late in the fourth quarter, the Bills intercepted Miami QB Chad Henne on the Dolphins’ final three possessions.

Buffalo capitalized on Henne’s miscues, scoring two quick touchdowns in the waning minutes of the game to put the game out of reach, eliminating any chance of Miami winning or covering the spread. (1-3)

Seahawks 27, Rams 17 (St. Louis, +3)

My pick was based on Seattle’s struggles running the ball and their poor track record on the road this year. Seattle RB Justin Forsett had 130 yards rushing and two touchdowns, and he was a big reason why the Seahawks stopped their five-game road losing streak against the Rams. So much for my powers of prognosis.

Forsett’s big day was his second in three games; he had 123 yards and a touchdown in a Seattle loss to Arizona two weeks ago. In what has turned into a disappointing season for the Seahawks, Forsett may be developing into a productive running back for the rest of this season and beyond. (1-4)

Falcons 20, Buccaneers 17 (Atlanta, -12)

Matt Ryan left the game early in the first quarter. Michael Turner re-injured his right ankle in the third. Any hope of the Falcons covering a 12-point spread left once their stars were sidelined.

Chris Redman filled in admirably for Ryan, leading the Falcons to a come-from-behind win. However, the Falcons’ chances of reaching the playoffs suffer with Ryan and Turner out.

Josh Freeman played well, throwing for a career-high 250 yards and playing error-free ball. The Buccaneers continue to challenge their opponents and cover spreads in their recent games. I’ll be curious to see what the line is for their game against the Panthers next week. (1-5)

Jets 17, Panthers 6 (Carolina, +3)

I was uncomfortable picking either of these teams. The Jets had lost 5-of-6, while the Panthers had turnover-prone Jake Delhomme doing the heavy lifting under center. I believed the Panthers were the lesser of two evils.

One 67-yard interception return for a touchdown by the Jets’ Darrelle Revis changed that perception pretty quickly. The Jets’ defense played with renewed vigor against the run, too, forcing the Panthers to throw the ball more, which lead to four Delhomme interceptions. (1-6)

Vikings 36, Bears 10 (Minnesota, -11)

As expected, the Vikings dominated the Bears. Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Brett Favre had another big day. The Bears didn’t get their running game going. None of this was unexpected.

One note of concern for the Vikings: Adrian Peterson fumbled twice, turning the ball over once. He’s lost five fumbles this year through 11 games, something that bears watching the rest of the way, as well as in the postseason. (2-6)

Titans 20, Cardinals 17 (Tennessee, -2.5)

Now, the Vince Young Comeback Tour includes a game-winning 99-yard drive, capped by a 10-yard touchdown pass to Kenny Britt as time expires.

While the world wonders if Young will walk on water for an encore, Chris Johnson reeled off his sixth-straight game with 125 or more rushing yards, tying a NFL record in the process.

Without entering into a debate over who has been more important, what is known is that the play of Young and Johnson, coupled with the struggles of several other teams, has elevated the Titans back into the AFC playoff picture. The AFC South title is long gone, but the Titans are in the mix for a wild card spot, something that seemed impossible five weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have some issues to tend to. Despite the close score, they gave up well over 500 yards of offense to the Titans, and a similar defensive effort next week against the Minnesota Vikings will result in another loss. (3-6)

49ers 20, Jaguars 3 (Jacksonville, +3)

If I were picking games outright, instead of against the spread, I’d be able to call this a winner, as I predicted the 49ers to edge the Jags.

For the Jaguars, they will reflect on this game as one filled with missed opportunities. Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee missed field goals of 40 and 21 yards, and the Jags fumbled twice on consecutive possessions, as they were mounting sustainable drives into San Francisco territory. (3-7)

Chargers 43, Chiefs 14 (Kansas City, +13.5)

One fumble recovery was converted into a touchdown for the Chargers. Three other Kansas City turnovers indirectly led to Chargers TDs as well.

Any chance the Chiefs had of covering the spread evaporated by halftime. I was not pleased. (3-8)

Ravens 20, Steelers 17, OT (Baltimore, -2.5)

Baltimore had a lot going for them in this game, simply because Dennis Dixon was making his first NFL start in place of Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers. As it turned out, Dixon played a solid game and the Ravens needed two short field goals—one late in the fourth quarter and the other in overtime—to win a game they probably should have won handily.

The Ravens moved the ball well against the Steelers’ defense, but two fumbles and two missed chances at touchdowns while in Pittsburgh’s red zone area, cost Baltimore. Pittsburgh’s defense sacked Baltimore QB Joe Flacco five times and knocked him down on seven other occasions.

With both teams now at 6-5 on the year, the next game between these rivals in a few weeks could be for the final AFC playoff berth. (4-8)

Monday Night

Saints 38, Patriots 17 (New England, +2.5)

Living in Massachusetts has provided me the opportunity to see many New England Patriots games in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick Era. This game against the Saints is about as bad as I’ve seen the Patriots play.

I’m not going to jump on the “New England is no longer an elite team” bandwagon at this juncture. There’s a lot of football to be played. However, the Patriots’ game against the Dolphins in Miami this coming week takes on new significance: They’ve yet to win a “true” road game this season, and a loss to Miami would allow their division rivals to cut the deficit in the division to one game.

It’s easy to root for the Saints; they are the personification of a “Madden NFL ’10” team. Now at 11-0, New Orleans, like Indianapolis, has a clear path to an undefeated regular season. If either (or both) makes it that far, the idea that the NFL is driven by parity can get thrown out the window.

And, with the strong possibility of a 2010 season without a salary cap, the divide between great teams and bad teams could grow further and diminish these gaudy regular seasons we’ve seen in recent years. (4-9)

Bonus Thursday Night Pick

Week 13 Thursday Night (home team in bold )

 NY Jets (-3) over Buffalo

The Jets lost the previous meeting between these teams due in large part to Mark Sanchez’s five interceptions. The Jets ran for over 300 yards in that game and should again enjoy success against a porous Bills’ defense.

The Bills, to their credit, have played better football in the last couple of weeks, and they should be able to move the ball on a weakened Jets’ defense. However, the key matchup will feature Terrell Owens against the Jets’ DB Darrelle Revis. If Revis again shuts Owens down as he did earlier in the season (13 yards receiving on three catches), then the Bills could lose by quite a bit.

Here’s hoping for a good start to week 13!

Jets 24, Bills 14

With the baseball season over with, the NFL finally takes center stage in week 10.

This week’s slate of games features some potential great matchups, including the annual tilt between Peyton Manning’s Colts and Tom Brady’s Patriots.

Following two straight losing weeks, I’m now 74-55 on the season and hoping to bounce back with a slew of winners. I’ve already nailed one game this week (thanks, Jay Cutler). Hopefully, it’s a sign of things to come.

Remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I apologize if you’re not entertained, but don’t ask for a refund.

I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis and haven’t found it elsewhere by now…I can’t help you.

Here now are the week ten picks, with the home team in bold .

Jacksonville (+6.5) over NY Jets

Fresh off their bye week, the Jets are in a good position to get their season back on track, facing a mediocre Jaguars team that couldn’t cover the spread at home against the Kansas City Chiefs last week.

The Jets, however, have struggled against teams that predominantly use the run on offense since Kris Jenkins’ season ended, and the Jaguars have one of the best running backs in the league: Maurice Jones-Drew.

Of course, the Jaguars have trouble stopping the run themselves, and the Jets will exploit this weakness in the Jags’ defense.

Assuming both teams run equally well and neither team turns the ball over excessively, this could be a close game. With that in mind, the Jaguars should cover the spread.

Jets 21, Jaguars 20

Denver (-4) over Washington

I was talking to a colleague at work about this game earlier in the week, and we both agreed that this felt like a classic “trap” game for the Broncos.

Denver’s lost two straight, they’re coming off a short week, and travelling to the east coast. Their offense is struggling to score points, and they’re facing a team with a solid defense, statistically-speaking. Plus, the Redskins, losers of four straight, could be due for a good performance, we mused.

These are just idle thoughts, borne from a casual conversation following Denver’s loss to Pittsburgh last week, though. The truth is, the Broncos should win this game by a touchdown or more.

Denver is facing a weak Washington offense that struggles to move the football down the field and allowed five sacks in last week’s loss to the Falcons. The Broncos should re-establish themselves defensively. On offense, if Denver can sustain drives, they will put points on the board as they wear down Washington’s defense.

Broncos 28, Redskins 10

Pittsburgh (-7) over Cincinnati

At the beginning of the season, I picked the Steelers to repeat as Super Bowl champions (see my NFL Haiku Preview here ).

Last week, in the second half of their game against the Broncos, the Steelers looked every bit the team capable of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end. They ran the football effectively, their defense forced turnovers, and their offensive line protected Ben Roethlisberger. Looking solely at those 30 minutes of football, it’s easy to envision Pittsburgh as Super Bowl champions.

The Bengals are a good football team. Their cornerbacks match up well against the Steelers’ receivers, and their defensive line has done a nice job all season containing the opponents’ running backs. Having to account for Rashard Mendenhall, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller will likely prove to be too much for Cincinnati though.

Plus, having nearly won their first matchup this season, the Steelers will not be lacking for motivation in this game.

Steelers 27, Bengals 13

Tennessee (-6.5) over Buffalo

Chris Johnson is averaging over 6.5 yards per carry and leads the NFL in rushing yards. He and the Titans face the NFL’s worst run defense this week, the Buffalo Bills.

Assuming Vince Young continues to hand the ball off and stay out of Johnson’s way, then Version 2.0 of the Vince Young Era will be 3-0 by the end of Sunday’s game against the Bills.

Titans 27, Bills 14

Minnesota (-16.5) over Detroit

Sure, they have only one win, but the Detroit Lions are, for the most part, playing competitive football this season.

The Vikings will win this game. That’s a given. They are far superior to the Lions, playing at home, and coming off their bye week. They will be rested and ready.

This is a risky pick, just because of the size of the spread. However, the Vikings should win by this much, perhaps more. Detroit can hang with the Vikings for a while, but Minnesota should be able to pull away by forcing turnovers.

Vikings 34, Lions 14

New Orleans (-13.5) over St. Louis

After trailing in their last three games, the Saints need to execute their offense better from the beginning of games through the end.

This week, New Orleans should be able to demonstrate what their offense is capable of. A big early lead will force the Rams to shelve the running attack, forcing them to throw the football and play into the hands of the Saints opportunistic defense.

I recognize the Rams are fresh off their first win of the season. Given the gaps in personnel and ability between the two teams, the Saints shouldn’t have much trouble.

Saints 37, Rams 10

Carolina (+1.5) over Atlanta

Fresh off a relatively easy win over the Redskins, the Falcons travel to face the Panthers, a team that is similar to the Falcons in a lot of ways.

Both teams run the ball well. Both teams feature mediocre defenses. Both teams’ quarterbacks have had their share of struggles this season.

The difference between the two teams is records. While Atlanta enters this game at 5-3 and in the playoff hunt, the Panthers are 3-5 and are a longshot, at best, at earning a wildcard spot. Despite that one lone difference, I visualize these teams as extremely similar.

With that in mind, I’m taking the Panthers to cover and win outright. Atlanta is 1-3 on the road, and Matt Ryan has put up some clunkers away from the Georgia Dome this year. The Panthers should be able to take advantage of Ryan’s mistakes, giving them more opportunities to run the ball against Atlanta’s weak run defense.

Panthers 24, Falcons 21

Miami (-10) over Tampa Bay

It’s difficult to believe that a team with a losing record would be double-digit favorites over another team with a losing record. And yet, that’s the NFL of 2009.

As well as Miami has played in their losses, the reason why those games went from wins to losses has a lot to do with the opposing quarterback. Could anyone other than Peyton Manning put up 27 points while having fewer than 15 minutes of game time to do it? Could anyone other than Drew Brees have engineered a comeback win from down 24-3?

Tampa Bay doesn’t have Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning. They don’t have Phillip Rivers or Matt Ryan either. And because their run defense won’t be able to slow down the Dolphins’ running backs, the Buccaneers don’t have a shot.

Dolphins 31, Buccaneers 10

Kansas City (+2) over Oakland

There’s precious little to say about these two teams that hasn’t already been said. They both stink.

The last time these teams met, the Raiders snuck out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win. The Chiefs dominated statistically, but Matt Cassel threw two interceptions.

The Chiefs have been involved in more competitive games this season than the Raiders, they have more intriguing talent on both sides of the ball, and, despite how poorly they’ve played this year, they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Chiefs 15, Raiders 12

Arizona (-8.5) over Seattle

The Seahawks have yet to win a road game. In fact, they’ve yet to even play well enough on the road to keep them competitive in an away game this season.

There are lingering injury questions about Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck. Plus, the Seahawks are among the worst running teams in the NFL, and their defense is average at best. For a team that has failed to play well on the road, these are significant issues to deal with as they play against the NFC West-leading Cardinals.

The last time these two teams met, Arizona limited Seattle to just three points. Kurt Warner is fresh off one of the best performances of his career, and Arizona’s offense seems to be clicking right now.

The Cardinals are the better team in this matchup. They’ve yet to play well at home, but perhaps this is the week they rectify that.

Cardinals 31, Seahawks 14

Philadelphia (+2.5) over San Diego

The Chargers come home following the euphoria of an uplifting win. The Eagles come into this game after losing a tough home game against division-rival Dallas.

This is a pivotal game for both teams. San Diego is chasing Denver in the AFC West, and the Eagles are trailing the Cowboys and need the win to stay ahead of the Giants in the NFC East.

The Eagles seem to be the better team. They have several weapons on offense to stretch out the Chargers’ defense. They should be able to run and pass successfully against San Diego. Their defense has limited most opponents to 20 or fewer points; only in their loss at New Orleans have the Eagles surrendered more than 20 points in a game.

The Chargers, meanwhile, don’t have the same versatility on offense. They haven’t run the ball well all season long and their passing offense seems limited to Phillip Rivers throwing downfield to Vincent Jackson.

It won’t be an easy task for the Eagles to go west and beat San Diego on the road, but I’m picking them to pull it off.

Eagles 24, Chargers 17

Dallas (-3) over Green Bay

Nothing would delight me more than to see the Packers pull off the upset.

Aaron Rodgers is a very good, under-publicized quarterback, and his receiving corps provides him with ample talent to score a lot of points. When Rodgers passes the ball successfully, the Packers are fun to watch.

However, between a pedestrian running attack and a porous offensive line, the Packers don’t do well at protecting Rodgers. He is sacked more than any other quarterback in the league.

In order to stay on the fringes of the NFC wildcard chase, the Packers need to win this game. Motivation won’t be an issue for the Packers, but their ability to stop the Cowboys might be.

Dallas has won four straight, with each win more impressive than the last it seems. There could be some let-down following their gritty win at Philadelphia last week, but the Cowboys are completely healthy on offense, and their defense has played better in recent weeks. Until some team knocks them off, or until the Cowboys suffer an injury to a key player, I don’t foresee them losing many games.

Cowboys 31, Packers 24

New England (+3) over Indianapolis

I could wax poetic about the similarities between these teams, or how Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, or how this game figures to be a ratings bonanza for NBC.

Instead, I’ll keep it brief. New England isn’t exactly a run-it-down-your-throat kind of team, but their skill players on offense are all healthy, and Pats’ coach Bill Bellichick will find ways to exploit the Colts’ injury-riddled defense, and that could mean more screen passes, or more touches for Laurence Maroney, among other tactics.

The Colts will certainly score their share of points. However, unless the Colts can score on every drive, they won’t win this game.

Patriots 31, Colts 27

Monday Night

Baltimore (-11) over Cleveland

The Ravens’ defense isn’t what it used to be. Opposing running backs have had over 100 yards rushing against Baltimore in three of their last four games. In all, the Ravens have lost four of their last five.

Given those facts about the Ravens, the point spread for this game speaks volumes about their opponents, the Cleveland Browns, who are the Los Angeles Clippers or Washington Nationals of the NFL.

Ravens 27, Browns 7

Now, a look back at the games from Week Nine, along with my pick for the Thursday night game in Week 10, which features San Francisco against Chicago.

Jaguars 24, Chiefs 21 (Chiefs, plus-6.5)

I think, for the first time all season, I was thrilled at the sight of a backdoor cover.

Jacksonville entered the fourth quarter up 17-6, then padded their lead with just over four minutes left in the game, thanks to a 10-yard touchdown run from Maurice Jones-Drew.

The Chiefs scored a quick touchdown on a 54-yard Matt Cassell-to-Chris Chambers pass, setting up an onside kick that the Chiefs recovered. From the no-huddle offense, the Chiefs were again able to move the ball, covering 68 yards on eight plays, and finishing with another Cassel-to-Chambers connection.

At that point, the Chiefs had covered the spread, and all was fine with me.

However, the Jaguars have quietly turned the corner, and have reached the .500 mark (4-4). They are in the mix for a playoff spot which, given how inconsistent they’ve been this season, is a surprise (1-0).

Bengals 17, Ravens 7 (Cincinnati, plus-3)

I am surprised at the high number of “Cincinnati is for real,” themed articles that have been published since Sunday afternoon.

Did I miss something? Folks are acting as if the Bengals have been teetering on the edge of mediocrity all season long. In other words, people must have the Bengals, and Texans confused.

Cincinnati’s been a good team all season long, and they methodically pounded the Ravens. Cedric Benson had 34 carries for 117 yards, and the Bengals thoroughly dominated the time of possession, keeping the ball for exactly 40 minutes. Carson Palmer was also efficient in passing the ball.

On defense, the Bengals did a great job defending on third down, as Baltimore was just 1-for-10 in turning third downs into first downs. Cincinnati had four sacks of Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, and they forced him into some bad throws, including two interceptions.

The Bengals are 2-0 against one of last year’s AFC championship game finalists, and 6-2 overall. They’ve earned my belief in them a while ago. (2-0)

Colts 20, Texans 17 (Houston, plus-9)

The beat goes on for the Colts; they are now 8-0 on the season, and are poised to capture the AFC South title once again.

With Bob Sanders out for the year, I expected Indianapolis to struggle at stopping the run. Instead, the Texans only managed 81 yards on the ground. The Colts’ run defense surprised me.

On offense, Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark connected for 14 pass plays. At the rate he’s going right now, Clark (60 receptions, 703 yards through eight games) could shatter the single-season records for catches, and yards receiving by a tight end.

Meanwhile, Houston continues to amaze because they manage to find ways to lose close games and, as a result, could find themselves on the outside-looking-in come playoff time. That would be a shame, because QB Matt Schaub has become a Pro Bowl-caliber player at his position, but he gets no recognition for his efforts. (3-0)

Falcons 31, Redskins 17 (Atlanta, minus-10)

Atlanta jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead. Washington cut the deficit to 24-17 early in the fourth quarter, and visions of a near-miss pick started filtering into my head.

Thankfully, Michael Turner scampered 58 yards on Atlanta’s next drive for his second touchdown of the day, giving the Falcons a two touchdown lead. My pick was safe.

More importantly, for Falcons fans, is that Atlanta re-asserted themselves in this game. Granted, lots of teams (like Detroit, for instance) have “righted the ship” against the Redskins this year. Still, it was a much-needed win for a Falcons team that had lost its way a bit against some quality opponents. (4-0)

Buccaneers 38, Packers 28 (Green Bay, minus-10)

This had to be the most surprising result of the week.

The Buccaneers showed signs of life defensively, sacking Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers six times, and hitting him on 12 other occasions. Rodgers was intercepted three times, and his final pick was returned for a touchdown with under a minute to play, clinching the win for Tampa Bay. Also, the Bucs blocked a punt, and returned that for another touchdown earlier in the game.

On offense, rookie QB Josh Freeman got hot in the fourth quarter, and wound up throwing three touchdown passes on the day. It wasn’t a sensational debut (14-for-31 passing), but Freeman provides Bucs fans with some hope.

As for Packers fans, this loss submarines their standing as a playoff contender. Losing on the road happens to good teams. Losing on the road in Week Nine to a winless team starting a rookie QB, however, is another matter altogether. (4-1)

Cardinals 41, Bears 21 (Arizona, plus-3)

Following an ugly loss to the Panthers last week, one in which Kurt Warner turned the ball over six times, the Cardinals bounced back in a big way against a Bears team that is clearly reeling.

Warner threw five TD passes, helping to stake the Cardinals to a 31-7 halftime lead. Jay Cutler had a solid day himself (369 passing, three TD passes), but it wasn’t enough to rally the Bears.

While Arizona is at least somewhat intriguing, if inconsistent, the Bears have the look of a team that will be seeking a new coach in the offseason. Continued play of this caliber, and Chicago will have a losing record by season’s end. (5-1)

Patriots 27, Dolphins 17 (New England, minus-10.5)

This was the first of a few “near-misses” in my picks this week.

Tom Brady topped the 300-yard mark in passing yards, and the Patriots successfully ran the ball against the Dolphins. However, the Dolphins kept the score close throughout the game.

On their scoring drive to open the second half, Miami held the football for over 10 minutes. The Dolphins took the lead on the drive, 17-16, and chewed up over two-thirds of the third quarter in terms of time.

While the Patriots struck quickly with a touchdown of their own on their ensuing possession, the odds of them covering the spread at that point were long. A Stephen Gostowski field goal with just over a minute left in the game proved to be tantalizing window-dressing on a win that was closer than the margin of victory indicated. (5-2)

Saints 30, Panthers 20 (New Orleans, minus-13)

Carolina had their chances in this one, particularly in the third quarter, driving down the field, up 17-13. A Jake Delhomme pass on a third down hit DeAngelo Williams in the shoulder pads at the goal line. Had he hauled it in, the Panthers would have gone up 24-13; instead they had to settle for a field goal.

Fourth quarter fumbles killed any hopes the Panthers had of pulling out the win. The most costly turnover occurred at the Panthers’ one-yard line, as Williams lost the football, and Saints’ DE Anthony Hargrove returned it for a touchdown with two minutes left in the game, providing the final margin of victory.

The Saints have trailed by significant margins in each of their last three games, only to come from behind to win. Had they played well from the outset, instead of having to overcome early turnovers, the Saints would have not only won, they would have covered the spread. (5-3)

Seahawks 32, Lions 20 (Detroit, plus-10)

At the end of the first quarter, Detroit led 17-0, and a road cover seemed likely.

Then, Matthew Stafford started throwing interceptions, and Matt Hasselbeck brought the Seahawks back with a team-record 39 completions (out of 51 attempts). So much for that. This was the second “near-miss” for me this week.

From a gambler’s perspective, the killer was Stafford’s fifth interception, which was returned 61 yards for a touchdown by Josh Wilson with 22 seconds left in the game. An incompletion on that play gives me the cover.

Instead, the Lions lose by 12, and I am left to lament another close call that went against me. (5-4)

Titans 34, 49ers 27 (Tennessee, plus-4)

The Vince Young Revival Tour is now 2-0, thanks in large part to the running of Chris Johnson, the NFL’s leading rusher.

Meanwhile, the Alex Smith Revival Tour is 0-1, mostly due to his four turnovers. Chief among those turnovers was an interception that Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan returned for a touchdown with just under three minutes left, giving the Titans a 34-20 lead.

San Francisco has gone from a team that has lost a bunch of close games, to a team that seems to be reeling, and is still figuring out its identity. Tennessee could be a spoiler the rest of the way, if Young remains efficient, and Johnson continues to run on teams successfully. (6-4)

Chargers 21, Giants 20 (NY Giants, minus-5)

This was the third of my “close calls” this week, and probably the hardest to take, since the Giants had seemingly secured the cover with just over two minutes left in the game, taking a 20-14 lead.

Instead, Phillip Rivers led the Chargers on an eight play, 80-yard drive for the game-winning touchdown with, capped by a nice pass to Vincent Jackson in the back corner of the end zone with 21 seconds left.

Eli Manning had a statistically superior game to Rivers, who threw two interceptions. The Giants ran the ball for over 100 yards, and held a sizeable advantage in time of possession. For a team that is considered to be “reeling,” the Giants played well enough to win the game.

The popular thought will be that the Giants, losers of four straight, are in trouble. The truth is, they need to execute better.

As for San Diego, they continue to struggle at running the football. Jackson has emerged as one of the best receivers in football, and the defense has played better in recent weeks. Still, they were fortunate to win this week, and face a tough schedule ahead. An AFC West title remains a long-shot. (6-5)

Cowboys 20, Eagles 16 (Philadelphia minus-6)

This game was a mild surprise, because it wasn’t a shootout, and because the Cowboys’ defense didn’t allow any big plays to the Eagles.

DeSean Jackson was held in check, and Brian Westbrook did not play, aiding the Cowboys’ cause.

After kicking a field goal to cut the deficit to 20-16 with around four minutes left in the game, the Eagles relied on their defense to stop the Dallas’ offense, and give them one more possession. Instead, Dallas was able to gain a couple of first downs, and maintained possession until the end of the game.

Donovan McNabb threw two costly interceptions. Both gave Dallas a short field to work with, and the Cowboys capitalized, scoring 10 points on their possessions following McNabb’s miscues.

After losing in Denver, questions swirled around the Cowboys. Now, four wins later, Dallas is in control of the NFC East. (6-6)

Steelers 28, Broncos 10 (Denver, plus-3)

The score suggests the Steelers blew out the Broncos. In the fourth quarter, that was a true statement, as Pittsburgh outgained Denver 118-19, scored two touchdowns, forced two interceptions, and held the ball for 12-out-of-the-15 minutes in the quarter.

Denver looked much sharper in the first half. Pittsburgh dominated the yardage, and time of possession in the third quarter. However, a red zone interception by Ben Roethlisberger thwarted an opportunity for the Steelers to go up 21-10 midway through the third quarter.

While many were quick to write the Broncos off following this game, I believe the Steelers’ performance was what people should focus on.

After struggling to run the ball for much of the year, Rashard Mendenhall has clearly emerged as a solid starting running back. The offensive line, after some in-game adjustments, protected Roethlisberger well. Mike Wallace gives the Steelers an added dimension in the passing game. The defense is healthy, and dangerous. I may not pick against them again the rest of the year, based on what I saw this week. (6-7)

Week 10 Bonus Game

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco (minus-3) over Chicago

This is a “must-win” for both teams.

However, as I wrote in my recap of the Bears’ Week Nine debacle against the Cardinals, they are playing like a team that will wind up with a new coach next season. Between injuries, a lack of quality personnel, and apathy, the Bears don’t seem to have what it takes to be a serious playoff contending team.

I still maintain, despite sinking to 3-5, that the 49ers are an up-and-coming team. Mike Singletary, coaching against the team he once played for, is a juicy story for those who are into that sort of thing. I think the bigger story will be how Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis do at attacking the Bears’ secondary.

49ers 31, Bears 24

As the NFL begins its second half, parity has been thrown out the window.

It seems that, week in and week out, there are clear-cut favorites and underdogs in more than half of the games played. There are few bizzare point spreads on a weekly basis.

Outside of the 6-1 Denver Broncos being underdogs every week (including this one), there are very few head-scratching favorites and underdogs. Also, the double-digit favorites are easier to pick because the underdogs are, for the most part, so overwhelmingly bad.

At the halfway point of the season, following a brutal 5-8 showing in week eight, I’m 20 games over .500 thus far (68-48), and hoping to keep making the right picks down the stretch.

Despite how well I’ve done so far, remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I’m not perfect. I never will be.

If you’re a faithful reader, you know by now that I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…I’d suggest John Clayton of ESPN, but he picked Denver to go 3-13, or something like that, so I don’t know if mainstream media analysis is the best option.

Here now are the Week Nine picks, with the home team in bold .

Kansas City (+6.5) over Jacksonville

Theoretically, the Jaguars should roll over the Chiefs. Everything points to a Jacksonville win, supposedly.

Kansas City doesn’t stop the run well, and the Jags have one of the most dynamic running backs in football: Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have more overall talent, and they’re playing at home, as well.

However, probably against my better judgment, I’m going with my gut, and taking the Chiefs. With Larry Johnson suspended, Kansas City won’t have any choice but to give Jamaal Charles the bulk of the carries at running back, and he may be more talented than Johnson at this point. As I showed last week, betting on a feeling instead of statistics can be hazardous to your wallet. Maybe I’m toxic right now, but I’m going with the feeling here, anyway.

Jaguars 21, Chiefs 18

Cincinnati (+3) over Baltimore

The Ravens would love to avenge their three-point loss to the Bengals at home from earlier in the season. Cedric Benson ran for 120 yards in that game, and Carson Palmer threw a TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to win it.

In the minds of the Ravens, it was a bit of a fluky win. However, the Bengals outgained the Ravens, held the ball for 10 more minutes, and allowed just one offensive TD to the Ravens. The score was close, but the Bengals were the better team on that day.

While it’s entirely possible that the Ravens are back on track after defeating Denver last week, the Bengals will be coming off their bye week, and are hosting this game. At this time of year, these could be big factors in deciding which team wins. I’m taking the Bengals.

Bengals 21, Ravens 17

Houston (+9) over Indianapolis

Since 2002, the Texans are 1-13 against the Colts. Currently 5-3, and posing the only legitimate threat to challenge Indianapolis in the AFC South at this point, the Texans have a lot to prove coming into this game.

The Colts, sitting at 7-0 and fresh off a tough win over the 49ers last week, will be well-prepared and motivated to widen their lead in the AFC South, and continue to hold  the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC as the NFL approaches the halfway point in the season.

Both Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub should have big games for their teams. The key to the game will be how the running backs fare. Neither team has done well running the football all season.

Ryan Moats did a nice job filling in for Steve Slaton last week, and he could seize the starting job with another big performance this week. Meanwhile, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown have posted pedestrian numbers while splitting carries for Indianapolis. The team that has the best running back will win this game. I’ll take the hot hand and ride the Texans in this one.

Texans 21, Colts 20

Atlanta (-10) over Washington

After a stretch in which they’ve played four of their last five games on the road, the Falcons come home to face a reeling Washington Redskins team.

As tempting as it is to pick against the double-digit favorite here, I’m taking the Falcons. They’ve been getting skewered in the media lately because of their struggles, and I’ve fallen into that trap a bit. Their three losses have all come on the road, and against playoff-contending teams (New England, Dallas, and New Orleans). Perhaps the criticism is premature.

As for the Redskins, they are playing out the proverbial string at this point. They may pull off a shocking win here, but it seems unlikely given their struggles to do much of anything besides collect their paychecks and play badly.

Falcons 34, Redskins 13

Green Bay (-10) over Tampa Bay

Ryan Grant figures to have a big game running against Tampa Bay’s weak rush defense, and Aaron Rodgers should pick apart the Buccaneers’ secondary.

On the other side, the Buccaneers will use rookie QB Josh Freeman against the Packers, a team with an opportunistic defense capable of causing several turnovers. This has the makings of being a blowout.

Packers 34, Buccaneers 14

Arizona (+3) over Chicago

Last week, the Bears won in spite of another mediocre performance from Jay Cutler, who now has 11 TD and 11 INT on the season. Meanwhile, all Kurt Warner did last week was throw five interceptions and lose a fumble, turning the ball over six times to the Carolina Panthers. Warner’s had the more consistent season thus far, but neither of these guys inspires a lot of confidence. I don’t trust the signal-callers for either team.

Both teams have running games that have proven to be horrible thus far. Neither team has an elite defense.

In games like this, where many of the matchups seem to be even for both sides, the outcome usually boils down to the athletic playmakers on either team. Larry Fitzgerald figures to play a bigger role in Arizona’s offense and success than Devin Hester will, so the advantage goes to Arizona.

Cardinals 24, Bears 20

New England (-10.5) over Miami

The Patriots had extra time to prepare for this one thanks to their bye week, and they should benefit from the time they had to rest and get ready for this key intra-division game.

Miami is fresh off their surprising win over the Jets, one that happened despite a lackluster 104 yards of total offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had a lot of success in the Wildcat offense against the Patriots last season, and both should do well this week, too. However, inexperienced Miami QB Chad Henne will likely be a non-factor this week, allowing the Patriots to focus on the run during key situations in the game.

I expect Tom Brady to have a field day against the Miami secondary, and unless the Dolphins can hold the ball for several sustained drives, I expect the Patriots to win this game easily. As much as I hate siding with the double-digit favorites, I think this could be a statement game for the Pats.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 17

New Orleans (-13) over Carolina

With the way the Saints have played this year, especially at home, anything under a two-touchdown spread seems to be an inviting play in my book.

This week, the turnover-happy Panthers come to New Orleans. Carolina could keep the Saints at bay a bit if they can control the time of possession, and not turn the ball over. Limiting Jake Delhomme’s passes will be vital to this plan, as the Saints feature an opportunistic secondary.

On offense, it would be stunning if the Saints were held in check by the Panthers’ defense. They are versatile and dangerous. So long as Drew Brees isn’t forced into making mistakes with the football, they should win by two touchdowns, or more.

Saints 35, Panthers 20

Detroit (+10) over Seattle

The Seahawks have been at their best at home against the worst the NFL has to offer; their two wins this season, against the Rams and Jaguars, came by a combined score of 69-0.

The Lions are similar to the teams Seattle has already thrashed this season, with one exception: Calvin Johnson. Oh sure, the Rams have Stephen Jackson, and the Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew, both of who are among the best running backs in football. Neither of those teams have a big-play receiver like Johnson, however.

Admittedly, this pick hinges on Johnson’s health; he is likely to be a game-time decision. If he plays, he will be productive against an average Seattle defense. If he doesn’t play, it limits what the Lions can do offensively, and it will likely mean that Seattle covers the spread.

This is gambling though, right? So I’m taking the risk, and going with the Lions to cover.

Seahawks 27, Lions 21

Tennessee (+4) over San Francisco

I’m well aware this isn’t 2008. I’m well aware the Titans have been lousy all season long.

Yet last week, with Vince Young under center and Chris Johnson racking up over 200 yards on the ground, the Titans played as if they had nothing to lose.

The 49ers’ defense has the potential to confuse Young and force him into some mistakes, and they also do a solid job of containing opposing teams’ running backs. Tennessee’s defense, conversely, is horrendous; the 49ers should move the ball easily and could have their best scoring day of the 2009 season.

Still, given their propensity to play a lot of close games, I don’t see the 49ers pulling away from the Titans. Instead, I get the feeling this could come down to a late drive either way.

49ers 31, Titans 28

NY Giants (-5) over San Diego

This will be a great “barometer” game for both teams. San Diego has yet to beat any team with a winning record this season, while the Giants have lost three straight, and are in danger of falling out of the NFC playoff picture.

The Chargers are basically a one-dimensional team on offense; they can only pass the football. The Giants’ three losses have come against Pro Bowl-caliber QBs (Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, and Donovan McNabb), and they face yet another one in Phillip Rivers.

If the Giants can defend Rivers’ deep passes to Vincent Jackson, and limit their offense to using the middle of the field instead of the edges, they should win easily. If Jackson gets open consistently, and Rivers has time to get him the ball, the Chargers could pull off a tough road win.

Eli Manning’s play of late has been bad, probably due in part to his foot injury. The Giants should be able to run the ball well against the Chargers, which should limit Manning’s throws and decrease his mistakes. They’ll score fewer points, but they’ll also keep the Chargers’ offense off the field as a by-product.

Between the Giants’ ability to run the ball on offense and pressure the quarterback on defense, they should be able to limit the Chargers’ passing attack and end their losing streak.

Giants 24, Chargers 17

Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas

Anything other than a shootout would be a pretty big surprise at this point; Dallas has scored 75 points in their last two games, while the Eagles have put up 67.

Dallas seems more equipped to sustain long drives, thanks to their running back tandem of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. The Eagles’ quick-strike offense is capable of scoring on a few big plays against a Dallas defense that gives up nearly 350 yards a game, though.

In trying to find an edge one way or the other, I kept coming back to points allowed. Other than a blowout loss to the Saints, the Eagles haven’t given up 20 points to any of their opponents. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have allowed 20 or more on four occasions.

While both teams will score their share of points, the Eagles’ defense seems to be able to shut teams down when the need arises, and I think this ability will play a decisive role in this game.

Eagles 31, Cowboys 24

Monday Night

Denver (+3) over Pittsburgh

This was a hard decision. There are compelling reasons to pick the Steelers.

First of all, Pittsburgh is coming off their bye week. Secondly, the Steelers present some of the same challenges to Denver that the Baltimore Ravens did last week, only with a better QB, better coaching staff, and a better overall defense. Plus, given the success Baltimore had in using the no-huddle offense, it seems likely that Pittsburgh will employ a similar strategy and use the no-huddle at times.

Putting all of that aside, the pick is Denver for two reasons.

1. The Broncos can exploit Pittsburgh’s secondary with more five-receiver sets and change-ups in the running game, such as the “Wild Horses” offensive scheme. As much as Denver likes to run the football, they may be best served throwing it, and they have the players in place to be successful while passing.

2. Baltimore may have created a blueprint for beating the Broncos, but the Broncos have been adept at adjusting to their opponents all season long, and I don’t expect that to be different in this game.

As an aside…Denver is the underdog at home again? Seriously?

Broncos 27, Steelers 20

The Ledger returns following week eight, a week that was, for me anyway, rather unsuccessful compared to the rest of the 2009 season.

I went 5-8 on the week, recording my worst week of picks against the spread all season long. The poor showing put a dent into my solid overall record, which now stands at 68-48. I’m hoping to bounce back in week nine.

First though, a look back at the games I picked correctly, and the games I missed horribly on. 

Ravens 30, Broncos 7 (Denver, +3.5)

The Ravens picked up a quality win, outscoring Denver 24-7 in the second half of this game to win comfortably. It marked the first time all season that the Broncos were outplayed in the second half of a game.

Lardarius Webb’s kickoff return for a touchdown that opened the second half gave the Ravens a 13-0 lead, and they never looked back from there.

This win should give the Ravens some confidence as they need to play extremely well down the stretch in order to make the playoffs. For Denver, this game should give their coaching staff plenty to go over with the team in preparation for their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

Two more key aspects to the Ravens’ win: they went 11-for-18 on third down conversions, allowing them to hold the football for longer, and they limited the Broncos to 200 yards of total offense.

Neither of those factors were results that I had expected prior to the game. (0-1)

Bears 30, Browns 6 (Chicago, -13.5)

If I were a Bears fan, I wouldn’t be overly joyous about this win. The Browns had five turnovers, which aided the Bears’ cause and sunk their chances, and their quarterback play rivals Oakland’s as the worst in the league.

In order for the Bears to make it to the postseason, they need Jay Cutler to play better and for Matt Forte to show some signs of life.

Forte racked up two touchdowns and 90 yards on the ground, but he had 26 carries, and his longest run was just 12 yards. Against a poor defense like Cleveland’s those aren’t numbers to brag about.

Cutler wasn’t a big part of the game plan once the Bears took a big lead, but his stats for the day suggest he was mediocre when he was involved (225 yards passing, one interception). (1-1)

Texans 31, Bills 10 (Houston, -3.5)

Despite struggles on offense, the Bills led 10-9 entering the fourth quarter in this one. Houston seemed on the verge of proving, once again, that they are the most inconsistent team in the league.

However, the Texans scored 21 points in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to some timely Buffalo turnovers, as well as the emergence of backup running back Ryan Moats, who scored all three Texans’ touchdowns in the final quarter.

Moats stepped in for Steve Slaton, who seems to have fumbled one too many times for Houston head coach Gary Kubiak’s taste.

This was the sort of win the Texans needed, in my view, to solidify their status as a playoff contender at this point in the 2009 season.

Now 5-3, the Texans are in the mix for a wild card spot. Two of their next three games are against Indianapolis though, so how they fare in those games could determine their fate for 2009. (2-1)

Colts 18, 49ers 14 (San Francisco, +12.5)

As expected, the 49ers were in this game. They even had a realistic chance at winning. However, a TD pass from Indy RB Joseph Addai with roughly three minutes left in the game gave the Colts the winning points. Also, the 49ers had problems sustaining drives, converting only two of 10 third downs.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, losses like this one are becoming emblematic of their season; it’s the third close loss to a playoff-contending team (Minnesota, Houston, now Indianapolis) in the last five games.

The 49ers are close, but it seems that they are still developing into a quality team, rather than already being one. As Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree play more together, they, and their team as a whole, will improve.

Meanwhile, the Colts motor on. They’ve won 16 straight regular season games. I still wonder how they will fare in the coming weeks, when they play Houston twice, New England, Baltimore, Denver and the Jets.

Indy has survived thus far without a decent running attack. Can they continue to succeed without one? (3-1)

Dolphins 30, Jets 25 (NY Jets, -3)

I went against conventional wisdom (Miami presents the Jets with matchup difficulties) and went with my (rather sizeable) gut in picking the Jets. Advantage, conventional wisdom.

And yet, I don’t feel badly about being wrong with this pick, because Miami’s win defied conventional wisdom in the first place.

The Dolphins had only 104 yards of total offense. Their running backs, the main reason they beat the Jets earlier this season, were non-factors in this rematch (52 yards rushing). The Jets had nearly 400 yards of offense, and had the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than the Dolphins.

But Miami’s Ted Ginn, Jr. returned two third quarter kickoffs for touchdowns, and Jason Taylor returned a fumble 48 yards for a third quarter TD as well. It’s hard to account for these types of momentum swings, and the Jets never recovered. (3-2)

Eagles 40, Giants 17 (NY Giants, +1)

This was another instance where I picked against conventional wisdom and went with my gut. Outside of an early-season win at Dallas, the Giants hadn’t beaten anyone this year, and they were playing this game on the road with a quarterback who is nursing a sore foot.

I believed the Giants were incapable of losing three straight. I believed the Eagles’ win over the Giants in the playoffs would provide inspiration.

In other words, I went against the statistics. I went against the big-play Eagles, thinking the Giants could limit the Eagles’ big-play capability. I was sorely mistaken.

Conventional Wisdom 2, Andrew Zercie 0.

To their credit, Eagles’ coach Andy Reid compensated for not having Brian Westbrook by using bruising fullback Leonard Weaver to share the load at running back.

Considering how well the experiment worked, and given how unbalanced the Eagles are on offense sometimes, Weaver could be featured more often in the coming weeks as Philadelphia seeks to maintain their lead in the NFC East over the Giants and Cowboys. (3-3)

Cowboys 38, Seahawks 17 (Dallas, -9.5)

There were no surprises. Dallas scored a lot of points, and the Seahawks couldn’t keep up. Seattle didn’t run the ball well, while Dallas was pretty good in that department. Matt Hasselbeck had a solid day, but Tony Romo was outstanding, for the most part.

Most importantly for Dallas is that they not only won, but they emerged with all their skill players on offense healthy heading into next week’s game at Philadelphia, which could wind up being one of the best shootouts of the season. (4-3)

Rams 17, Lions 10 (St. Louis, +4)

The best pass play of the game was credited to the kicker, instead of either team’s quarterback.

St. Louis kicker Josh Brown lofted a pass to tight end Daniel Fells off a fake field goal toward the end of the first half for the game’s first touchdown.

Steven Jackson ran well for the Rams, gaining nearly 150 yards on the ground and scoring his first touchdown of the season.

For the Lions, at least running back Kevin Smith made a heads-up play when he tackled the Rams’ James Butler for a safety after Butler scrambled out of the end zone following an interception. (5-3)

Titans 30, Jaguars 13 (Jacksonville, +3)

Perhaps Vince Young should have been given a chance to compete with Kerry Collins for the starting quarterback job in Tennessee during training camp.

Granted, he’s never proven to be as efficient (15-of-18 for 125 yards and a touchdown) as he was against the Jaguars this past week, but he has always been more talented than Kerry Collins. His play was a big reason the Titans won.

Chris Johnson’s 228 yards and two rushing touchdowns were huge as well.

Of course the main reason Tennessee beat Jacksonville was that the Jaguars decided that Maurice Jones-Drew only needed to touch the ball nine times in this game. He generated 173 yards of total offense on those nine touches. With more opportunities, who knows how successful he and his team could have been? (5-4)

Chargers 24, Raiders 16 (San Diego, -16.5)

I hate betting on double-digit favorites in general, but got caught up on the idea that the Chargers would have a big game to reinvigorate their fans, who are understandably annoyed with their team this season.

I forgot the key element a team needs to have in order to blow another team out: talent.

The Chargers have a few talented players but collectively, they are not an overly-talented bunch. They could have used a big win but, in reality, they are not capable of producing one. I should have known better. (5-5)

Panthers 34, Cardinals 21 (Arizona, -10)

Every week, the Cardinals take a calculated risk that Kurt Warner will be efficient and productive enough to overcome their problems in running the football.

Last season, the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl despite the inability to run the ball. This season, thanks to a strong defense and Warner’s play, the Cardinals seemed to be on track to win the NFC West.

This past week, however, Warner morphed into Jake Delhomme and turned the ball over six times. The Panthers ran the ball at will on the NFL’s stingiest run defense. The Cardinals looked about as bad as they have all season.

The Panthers finally decided to just run the ball down their opponents’ throats instead of letting Jake Delhomme decide their fate with his errant passes. This only took the Panthers seven games to figure out.

So following their best win of the season, at the Meadowlands against the Giants, the Cardinals play their worst game of the season. I have to say, I didn’t see this coming. (5-6)

Vikings 38, Packers 26 (Green Bay, -3)

Aaron Rodgers had a great game, especially in trying to rally the Packers from a 24-3 deficit. However, his offensive line left him exposed far too often, resulting in six sacks for the Vikings.

To Brett Favre’s credit, he played extremely well following a gaffe-filled loss at Pittsburgh the previous week. In what had to be an emotionally and physically draining game, he threw four touchdown passes and had no interceptions or fumbles lost.

Most importantly, as the Packers rallied, Favre and the Vikings kept scoring, keeping the game out of reach.

In picking the Packers, I expected Favre to repeat his performance against the Steelers. Instead, he proved me wrong and showed that he isn’t afraid to play well when the spotlight shines squarely on him. Good for him and Vikings fans, bad for the Packers and the rest of the NFL perhaps. (5-7)

Saints 35, Falcons 27 (New Orleans, -10)

Jason Elam’s field goal with 28 seconds left in the game gave the Falcons the ol’ backdoor cover. I hate when that happens.

Besides making me bitter and annoyed about gaining another loss on the week, Elam’s field goal also ended the Saints’ streak of double-digit wins as well.

Atlanta did a nice job of taking an early lead on the Saints, but New Orleans’ offense has yet to be contained this season. The comparisons of the Saints to the best offenses in NFL history are now fitting. If they continue to play this well the rest of the season, they could bring a Super Bowl title to New Orleans.

Meanwhile, it seems that Matt Ryan is going through an under-publicized sophomore slump. He’s had three straight games with two or more interceptions, and the Falcons are 1-2 in those contests.

Ryan’s performance bears watching the rest of the way. He’s on pace for 21 interceptions, which is Jay Cutler territory. (5-8)

The lone exception continues to be the Denver Broncos, who have been favored once all season (at Oakland) and are 6-0 against the NFL and the spread, a remarkable turnaround for a franchise that collapsed in their final three games last season, needing just one win to clinch the AFC West.

But I digress…

After a great two-week stretch, my picks last week were mediocre for a change. I went 7-7 against the spread in Week Six, bringing my overall record to 54-36.

Still, despite what can be considered a bad week for me, it wasn’t terrible considering some of the surprises that took place around the league, such as Oakland beating the Philadelphia Eagles. Now that was terrible, for the Eagles anyway.

Recall that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I do my best week-in and week-out to inform, but I don’t make promises I can’t keep.

As always, I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis … well … you can follow Peter King on Twitter now.

Here now are the Week Seven picks with the home team in bold .

Sunday

San Diego (-5) over Kansas City

This is the Chargers’ Last Stand.

San Diego is already 2-3 on the season, and could easily be 0-5. All three of their losses have come within the conference, and their loss to Denver last week put them three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos for the AFC West crown. San Diego needs this game.

The Chiefs have played better in recent weeks, winning at Washington and taking Dallas into overtime before losing to the Cowboys two weeks ago. Still, their pass defense is suspect (nearly 250 passing yards allowed per game), and about the only thing the Chargers seem to do well these days is pass the football.

I’m betting the Chargers show a little pride and take a big early lead on the Chiefs, then coast to a closer-than-it-should-be win on the road.

Chargers 27, Chiefs 20

Indianapolis (-13) over St. Louis

In their past 16 games, dating back to last season, the Rams are 0-16. That’s a trend that won’t change this week. St. Louis gives up nearly 400 yards per game on defense, and faces an Indianapolis team averaging more than 400 yards of offense per game.

The Colts are coming off their bye week and have quietly become the best team in the AFC so far this season. Word is, they’ll be getting Pro Bowl-caliber safety Bob Sanders back for this game, and in years past, his presence has improved their defense.

As much as I hate picking double-digit favorites, especially on the road, this has the makings of being a blowout of epic proportions. Peyton Manning is the league’s MVP to this point, and both the offense and defense for the Colts are improving. Scary thought.

Colts 42, Rams 10

Cincinnati (-1.5) over Chicago

Just a week ago, the Bengals entered Week Six as one of the darlings of the NFL. They were 4-1, with their lone loss coming against the Broncos. Cincinnati had beaten Pittsburgh and Baltimore in close games, instilling confidence in the franchise and the fan base.

A week later, the Bengals are barely favored at home against the turnover-prone Bears. Some of that is due to the loss of Antwan Odom for the season. All Odom had done was record eight sacks before tearing his Achilles tendon.

Another reason the Bengals are just a slight favorite is because of the franchise’s reputation as a laughingstock. People don’t fully believe that the Bengals are a playoff-caliber team.

I believe that Cedric Benson will play this game with something to prove, since he believes the Bears submarined the early portion of his career. I also believe the Bears’ defense doesn’t have the teeth it once had. Plus, Jay Cutler has played significantly worse on the road this year; all seven of his interceptions have come away from Chicago.

Call me a Doubting Thomas if you will, but I have more faith in the Bengals than the Bears.

Bengals 24, Bears 17

Green Bay (-7.5) over Cleveland

After feasting on the Detroit Lions last week, the Packers’ next opponent is the bumbling Browns.

The Browns are supposedly ridden with the H1N1 strain of the flu, their best quarterback may be their return man, Josh Cribbs, and they allow more than 400 yards per game on defense. Otherwise, they’re great!

Green Bay is not without their problems; Detroit sacked Packers QB Aaron Rodgers five times, and they haven’t run the ball well all season. However, this should be another relatively easy win for the Packers, given the Browns’ defensive struggles.

Packers 31, Browns 14

Pittsburgh (-4) over Minnesota

To this point, the Vikings haven’t been tested on the road this season. They’ve played some close games at home (San Francisco, Green Bay, Baltimore), but their road games have come against some of the worst teams in the league (Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis).

The Steelers should be a good challenge for Minnesota. Their pass defense has performed better in recent weeks with Troy Polamalu back from his injury, and their run defense has been strong all season.

The Vikings will need Adrian Peterson to have a huge day to keep the Steelers from blitzing Brett Favre into some mistakes. I’m betting that Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau have the team prepared to keep Peterson in check. They’ll squeeze Favre into a couple turnovers and win by a touchdown, maybe more.

Steelers 24, Vikings 17

New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay

In what amounts to a road game for both teams, the Buccaneers are considered a double-digit home underdog in London. Go figure.

Just being simplistic, this is a game the Patriots should win easily. They’re coming off a 59-0 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans and have won eight of their past 10 dating back to last season. Conversely, Tampa Bay has lost their past 10 straight.

With a short week to prepare, having experienced players and coaches gives the Patriots an edge over the Bucs. The Patriots also have a pretty sizable advantage over Tampa Bay in other areas besides preparation and coaching, such as roster talent, on-field synchronicity, and, most importantly, uniforms.

For Patriots fans, this should be a jolly good show.

Patriots 34, Buccaneers 3

San Francisco (+3) over Houston

The worry in picking the 49ers is that they were exposed by the Atlanta Falcons as overrated against the pass, where the Houston Texans excel on offense.

The difference between the Falcons and Texans though, is that the Falcons are building toward being one of the best teams in the NFC. Houston, meanwhile, remains inconsistent, unable to string together consecutive wins since late last season.

San Francisco had two weeks to prepare for this game, and their 45-10 loss in Atlanta was humiliating. They’ll bounce back and reassert themselves with a solid road win, while the Texans will continue to torment their supporters, and have the rest of us scratching our heads.

49ers 27, Texans 24

NY Jets (-6) over Oakland

The Jets ran for more than 300 yards last week against Buffalo and lost, thanks primarily to Mark Sanchez’s five interceptions.

This week, the Jets travel to Oakland to face another horrid run defense. The Raiders give up nearly 150 yards rushing per game, so Thomas Jones and Leon Washington should each have huge days. If the Jets can limit Sanchez’s throws by running the football successfully, they should have no problem with Oakland.

After Oakland surprised the Philadelphia Eagles last week, one would think the Jets will not take Oakland for granted. I don’t expect any surprises here. I expect a resounding Jets win.

Jets 28, Raiders 13

Carolina (-6.5) over Buffalo

Buffalo allowed more than 300 yards rushing to the Jets last week, and give up an average of more than 180 yards on the ground per game. This week, they travel to Carolina, where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart await. I would imagine the Panthers’ game plan will be run-heavy.

Carolina will have success against the Bills, of that there is no doubt. The question is, can Buffalo score on the Panthers? Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson could rival or equal the production of Carolina’s running backs; the Panthers allow nearly 150 yards per game on the ground themselves.

The key will be the play of Bills’ backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. If he surprises Carolina with some early pass plays, their defense will back off the line of scrimmage, opening up running lanes for Lynch and Jackson. If Fitzpatrick can’t connect with his receivers, the Panthers can expect more run plays, and that would reduce the effectiveness of the Bills’ running attack.

Fitzpatrick is a capable backup QB, but I believe the Panthers’ offense could have a big day, forcing the Bills to run less, throw more, and increase their chances of turning the ball over, which isn’t a good formula for success.

Panthers 31, Bills 17

Miami (+6.5) over New Orleans

I’ll admit, this is a selfish pick. I want to see the Saints sweat a little bit, and I think the Dolphins are capable of making it happen.

Earlier in the year, the Dolphins nearly beat the Indianapolis Colts by keeping their offense off the field, running the football effectively and sustaining long drives. While Peyton Manning was ultimately able to shred the Dolphins’ defense for 27 points in less than 15 minutes on the field, Miami created a blueprint that should serve them well against the Saints.

Of course, the Saints seem to be a better team than the Colts, especially when running the football. Pierre Thomas has turned into a solid featured running back, better than anyone the Colts have on their roster, and the Dolphins will need to shut him down in order to have a shot at beating the Saints.

Where the Dolphins are weak is at quarterback, as Chad Henne will be making just his third career start. He’ll have to make some plays early to keep the Saints’ defense from keying on Miami’s running game. If he can’t do that, it’ll be a long day for the Dolphins.

But, as I stated earlier, I’m taking the Dolphins. I believe they’re capable of hanging with the Saints and making them play a tight game to earn a solid road win.

Saints 27, Dolphins 24

Dallas (-4) over Atlanta

The bye week came at a great time for Dallas. They were nearly beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs in their last game. Had they lost that game, Cowboys’ coach Wade Phillips might have been replaced, and the season could have quickly turned into a weekly soap opera.

Instead, all the pieces of the Cowboys’ high-powered offense are returning from injuries. Marion Barber, Roy Williams, and Felix Jones seem to be back at full strength for this game, meaning Tony Romo should have at his disposal a full complement of offensive weapons for the first time since Dallas’ home opener.

That was the last time the Cowboys scored 30 or more points. They should be able to score that many points, or more, against an average Atlanta Falcons defense

Atlanta will get their share of points as well; the Cowboys’ defense allows just as much yardage as the Falcons’ defense does (nearly 360 yards per game). I expect a shootout between these teams, and I believe the Cowboys will emerge with the win by a touchdown.

Cowboys 37, Falcons 31

NY Giants (-7) over Arizona

The Giants were embarrassed by the Saints last week and should be pleased to be at home after playing four of their first six games on the road. Their game against the Cardinals presents some interesting challenges for the Giants.

The Giants like to run the football, averaging nearly 150 yards per game, but the Cardinals allow less than 60 yards per game on the ground. If the Giants can figure out a way to run the football on the league’s top run defense, this could be a rout.

Kurt Warner struggles against defenses that pressure and hit the quarterback, something the Giants excel at. If he is sacked a few times early and consistently pressured by the Giants’ defensive line, the Cardinals’ one-dimensional offense could have no dimensions.

I’m taking the Giants, on the belief they will re-assert themselves as an elite team in the NFL and that playing at home on national television will reinvigorate them.

Giants 33, Cardinals 24

Monday Night

Philadelphia (-7) over Washington

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses to teams they should have beaten soundly. Of course, the Eagles come into this game with the hopes of being a playoff contender, while the Redskins are shrouded in controversy, speculation, and finger-pointing.

Still, despite their season-long struggles, the Redskins have yet to be blown out. Their largest defeat was last week’s debacle against the Chiefs, an eight-point loss.

So why, then, am I taking the Eagles? Simply put, the Eagles are the most dynamic team the Redskins have faced this season. Washington has played St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Kansas City. Those five teams have a combined four wins amongst them. The fact that Washington is 2-3 given their early schedule is an indication they’re in for a rough stretch, beginning with the drubbing they’ll take at the hands of the Eagles.

Eagles 35, Redskins 10

I was disappointed with how last week went. However, it’s a new week, and it’s time to provide some picks for folks looking for help with the office pool. Hopefully, for your sake and mine, my picks are more accurate this week.

As always, I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…I try.

Here now are the week four picks, with the home team in bold. Picks are for entertainment purposes only, of course. (Last week vs. spread: 7-9. Season record against the spread: 28-20)

Sunday

Oakland (+9.5) over Houston

Call it the Upset Special.

On offense, the Raiders’ strength is running the football. On defense, the Texans can’t stop the run at all.

Houston has yet to establish its own running game on offense this year, and the Raiders’ CB Nnamdi Asomugha should slow down the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection in the passing game.

If the Texans are serious about making a run to the playoffs this year, they need this game.

Still, I can’t see Houston winning by 10 or more points, especially if Oakland refrains from turning the ball over and controlling the time of possession with their running backs. In fact, should Oakland stick to that formula, they may win outright.

Texans, 24-20

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville

The last team to make it to the playoffs after starting 0-3 was the 1998 Buffalo Bills. Tennessee is 0-3 as all casual NFL fans know, but they’re also 0-3 within the AFC, and their next two games after this one: home against the Indianapolis Colts and at the New England Patriots. So, stick a fork in the Titans.

They not only have to win this week, but the next two as well to gain some ground within the AFC. Not happening.

And this week is no lock either: dating back to last season, the Titans are 3-7 (including playoffs) in their last 10 games, and Jacksonville is 2-8 in the same span. These teams are on equal footing, for the most part.

Interestingly enough, their styles of play are similar too. They both rely on strong running games. Neither team has playmaking receivers. Both teams’ defenses have struggled this year.

I’ll take the Titans, only because they need to win to keep their false sense of hope for a post-season berth alive.

Titans, 21-17

New England (-2) over Baltimore

Lost amid all the hype surrounding the Ravens is the fact that their schedule to this point hasn’t been particularly challenging. Their once-vaunted defense allowed 24 points to the Chiefs and 26 to the Chargers.

Oh sure, they dominated the Browns. When the Denver Broncos dominated the Browns, it was written off because it came against a terrible team. Why haven’t the Ravens received the same treatment?

Meanwhile, the Pats have handled business at home, and this one’s in Foxboro. I’ve said it for weeks now: the deeper into the season we go, the more comfortable Tom Brady will be behind center.

I think the headlines after this week’s contest will focus on the Ravens’ defense being exposed a bit, and I’ll wonder what took people so long.

Patriots, 27-21

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland

I considered going the other way with this game upon hearing that Derek Anderson was starting for the Browns. Anderson built a nice rapport with Braylon Edwards when he started, and the two could connect for a few big plays to keep this one close.

However, the Bengals are starting to believe in themselves after big wins over the Packers and Steelers.

Their defense is good, their running game seems to be improving, and Carson Palmer is getting good protection and playing well thus far. It’s hard to pick against the Bengals these days.

Bengals, 31-24

NY Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City

I expect the Giants to have another game similar to the one they had last week against Tampa Bay.

I’m not saying they’ll shut the Chiefs out, but the Giants will look to run the ball quite a bit, control the time of possession, and force the Chiefs to make mistakes on offense. It’s a simple formula, and there’s no reason to deviate from it this week.

Giants, 21-3

Chicago (-10) over Detroit

I know the Bears haven’t been lighting teams up this year, but my rationale for picking them is simple. The Bears have more talent, and are playing at home.

Matthew Stafford will likely struggle in this one for the Lions, and the Bears should be able to control the ball and see better results in the running game this week.

Bears, 24-10

Washington (-7) over Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers’ run defense has allowed over 175 yards per game on the ground, and their secondary has been lit up just as badly. This matchup is just what the struggling Washington Redskins’ offense needed.

Clinton Portis should have a big day and Jason Campbell, who’s been accurate (67% completion percentage) and a bit underrated this year, could have his best numbers of the season as well.

Should the Washington offense struggle again, the cries for Jim Zorn’s removal will only grow louder.

Redskins, 27-10

Indianapolis (-9) over Seattle

With Matt Hasselbeck sidelined, the burden falls on Seneca Wallace again. Playing on the road against a team likely to jump out to an early lead, I expect Wallace to struggle and the Seahawks to lose big.

Peyton Manning will lead the Colts to a couple of early-game scoring drives and the Seahawks will need to play catch-up without the personnel needed to pull it off.

Colts, 28-14

New Orleans (-7) over NY Jets

I think this one will be close to the spread. I don’t see the Saints blowing the Jets out. The Jets’ defense this season has been exceptional, led by CB Darrelle Revis, and their rookie QB Mark Sanchez has more than held his own.

However, Sanchez will have to throw the ball more in this game. So far, the Jets have limited his throws and, not coincidentally, he’s made relatively few mistakes.

If he’s forced to make 45 passes or so, the likelihood of him forcing throws and throwing interceptions only increases.

By the same token, Drew Brees hasn’t faced a defense this talented yet this season. However he is experienced enough to adjust, and I wonder if Sanchez is similarly capable in just the fourth game of his career.

Saints, 31-21

Buffalo (-2) over Miami

This became a no-brainer pick the moment Miami lost Chad Pennington for the season. Chad Henne may well turn into a quality starting quarterback in the NFL, but it won’t happen overnight.

The Bills’ defense has struggled against the run this year, but they should be able to key on the Dolphins’ duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and make Henne beat them.

Bills, 24-17

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis

The 49ers will miss Frank Gore but his backup, Glenn Coffee, shouldn’t have much trouble gaining yards on the ground against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Meanwhile, the Rams will be without starting QB Marc Bulger, relying on his understudy, Kyle Boller, to rally the team. Stephen Jackson will have a tough day against a stout 49ers’ run defense that will key on him and make Boller beat them.

49ers, 20-9

Denver (+3) over Dallas

The Cowboys’ defense gives up a ton of passing and rushing yards. Their best two running backs are dinged up.

Dallas nearly played a complete stinker against Carolina at home on national TV last week, and they play on the road coming off a “short week” of preparation.

So, naturally, the Cowboys are three-point favorites against a team that’s allowed just 16 points on the season. Yeah, that makes total sense.

Look, odds are that the Cowboys will score more points in this game than the Broncos have allowed on the season. However, Kyle Orton is improving week-to-week at the helm of a new offense.

The Broncos will be able to run on the Cowboys, and they’ll slow down Dallas’ running backs. Denver will pressure Tony Romo, while Dallas’ pass rush will struggle against one of the best offensive lines in football.

If their 3-0 start to this point wasn’t proof enough they’re for real, then maybe 4-0 will do the trick.

Broncos, 27-20 

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over San Diego

I went back and forth a few times before deciding to pick the Steelers. While the Chargers have yet to develop their running game, Phillip Rivers has looked great so far.

Pittsburgh has had trouble protecting Ben Roethlisberger, and they’re 1-2, but he’s played well despite the O-Line issues and a lack of production out of the backfield.

These teams are very similar. The Steelers are in jeopardy of starting 1-3 on the season and host the Chargers. They need the win more, they’ll play as if their season is on the line, and they’ll pull away late.

Steelers, 27-17

Monday Night

Minnesota (-3.5) over Green Bay

I’m going to downplay the Brett Favre Revenge Factor. I’m sure Favre wants to throw for 12,500 yards and 17 TD passes in this one.

As badly as he wants to embarrass the Packers on the field, he’s not going to hurt his team’s chances of winning just so he can try to pad his statistics though.

The truth is, Adrian Peterson should be able to run on the Packers’ defense, allowing the Vikings to control the ball.

Alternately, the Packers will struggle to protect Aaron Rodgers and, as good as Rodgers is at minimizing mistakes, he won’t be error-free in this one.

The crowd will be pumped up, the Vikings will feed off of it, and I could see this game being over early on.

Vikings 31, Packers 20