The Michael Crabtree saga continues as the 49ers begin Week 3 of the season.

The place it matters is upside, i.e., escalators. It’s challenging to equate the level of difficulty of the escalator to players in entirely different positions where statistical accomplishments—very important to a wide receiver—are largely irrelevant, save for sacks. The primary escalation marker for many positions is playing time, not directly relevant to a receiver.

Similar challenges have been present in the Crabtree drama. Directly above him are linemen B.J. Raji of the Packers and Eugene Monroe of the Jaguars, whose upside is based primarily on playing time. Above those picks is the much-discussed Darrius Heyward-Bey deal with the Raiders, whose contract the Crabtree camp is trying hard to latch on to for obvious reasons.

Although it will be extremely difficult to approach the hard numbers of the Heyward-Bey contract, it’s the escalator that Crabtree’s camp argues should be the apples-to-apples comparison.

Heyward-Bey’s contract has a base value of $38 million, almost $16 million more than the pick above Crabtree, Raji at $22M. While Raji has been the marker used by the 49ers—a reasonable data point for both sides—Heyward-Bey has been a focal point for the other side.

Heyward Bey’s contract value goes to nearly $41 million for 60 catches one time in his first four years; it escalates to more than $43 million for 60 catches twice.

Crabtree has taken notice. While he makes the argument that this contract should be a key data point because of the position the players play, especially regarding upside, the 49ers point to the fact that the deal is three picks away, buffered by two deals in between.

Another dynamic appears to be one first written about by Mike Sando of ESPN and discussed here at the NFP by my colleague Brad Biggs: the lack of production of wide receivers in offenses run by 49ers coordinator Jimmy Raye.

Just as opponents have scouting reports on whom they’re playing, agents have scouting reports on philosophies of coordinators that affect the earning potential of clients.

As Sando and Biggs pointed out, in Raye’s 12 previous seasons as an offensive coordinator, only twice has a wide receiver reached 1,000 yards, and only twice has a receiver had more than 64 receptions. To put that in perspective, 22 receivers had more than 1,000 yards last season and 30 had more than 64 receptions.

Jeremy Maclin was the next receiver taken after Crabtree.

In the Maclin negotiation, the concern about escalators from the Maclin camp was that even though the Eagles pass as much as any team in the league, they spread the ball around, lessening the chances for dramatic impact of the escalators. In the case of Crabtree, the concern is simply the run-oriented style of attack being used by the 49ers.

Like Maclin, the Crabtree talks are complicated by factors beyond the base contract and the guarantee. Upside is key to any contract, especially first-round contracts. And slotting is in play here, but slotting against whom? The picks next to Crabtree, or the wide receiver three picks away? The drama continues.

Yet another complicating factor is what may have been said to Crabtree about his contractual value in the event he sits out this season and enters the 2010 draft.

While most feel he would be making a huge financial mistake sitting out this year, it’s something no one can be sure of. Now reports have surfaced that tampering may have been a factor in the negotiations and has been alleged by the 49ers. This is yet another twist to this saga.

With the games on the field beginning, it hasn’t stopped the action off the field in front offices and the business of football. Here are some recent moves that have been engineered over the past couple of weeks around the league:

Arizona

Adrian Wilson converted $3 million of his $8.5 million salary into signing bonus, prorated for salary cap purposes, to lower his present cap charge while raising his future cap amounts.

To be clear, let’s dispel two myths about this contract: (1) that Wilson sacrificed money to help the team, and (2) that this restructure foreshadows a pending contract extension for Anquan Boldin.

Wilson’s restructure simply gives the Cardinals breathing room for the season, not additional resources to address his deal. As with the earlier Larry Fitzgerald restructure by the Cardinals, they’re worried about cap and cash flow right now, not a big new contract for Boldin.

Drew Brees restructured his contract to provide the Saints with some much-needed cap relief, converting over half of his $9.8 million salary into signing bonus. He’ll make the same amounts over the next three years and have the same cash flow while giving the Saints $3.4 million of additional cap room this year, putting them at $5.5 million of available room to last the season.

Carolina

A.J. Feeley received $50,000 to sign. The only team in the NFL under the Mendoza line of $1 million of cap room, look for the Panthers to try to restructure a contract or two soon since we’re in a season where all earned incentives are going to count on the cap when earned—unlike previous years—due to next year being uncapped.

Philadelphia

Jeff Garcia also received $50,000 to sign and a two-game guarantee of salary. The amount is moot, however, because Garcia, as a vested veteran, is guaranteed at least one-quarter of the 10-year minimum salary, an amount worth approximately $211,000.

Indianapolis

Hank Baskett, released by the Eagles and unclaimed due to his $1.545 million salary (the restricted free-agent tender for the second-round draft compensation) was given a $100,000 bonus to sign with the Colts after being pursued by the Rams and a couple of other teams.

And here are some players who took pay cuts prior to the start of the season, avoiding release by their teams:

– Sean Jones, Eagles
– Ryan Denney, Bills
– Cornell Green and Paul McQuistan, Raiders
– Jamar Nesbit, Saints.

All of these reductions were in the $500,000 range. The players made the decision that, in this economy, it’s better to be working at a reduced rate than maybe not working at all.

Follow me on Twitter: adbrandt

As of Thursday night’s scintillating opener, another NFL season is upon us, seven long months since a meaningful snap was last taken.

I have always referred to football’s long offseason as “me” time, when players seek to get the best they can get for themselves, with the interests of the team being secondary. We have now finally reached “we” time, when teams galvanize together in the ultimate team sport, a sport where the absolute best players in the game are on the sidelines for at least half of it.

And what an offseason of “me” time it was. It included:

Anquan Boldin

– Annual contractual gripings by regulars such as Anquan Boldin and Chad Ochocinco.

– Massive contract extensions for players who used the strong leverage of impending free agency (Nnamdi Asomugha, Jordan Gross).

– Unrestricted free-agent deals that set new standards of pay for defensive linemen (Albert Haynesworth), linebackers (Bart Scott) and centers (Jason Brown).

– Franchise players who leveraged their status into megadeals (Matt Cassel, Terrell Suggs).

– Traded players who complained their way into better situations (Jay Cutler, Jason Peters).

– This year’s poster child for what’s wrong with rookie compensation, Matthew Stafford, now the NFL’s highest-paid player in terms of guaranteed money at $41.7 million.

Michael Vick

Perhaps the two most talked about players in the 2009 NFL offseason were not members of any NFL team until a couple weeks ago. Michael Vick has resurfaced with the Eagles, a team that presented him with the best option for redemption, as his other choices for employment would not have set him up well for the future.

And, of course, my old friend Brett Lorenzo Favre finally agreed to a date with the Vikings, who had been asking him out for more than a year.

Note on Favre: I’m amazed at how many people ask why Favre made the Vikings wait, why he couldn’t make up his mind, why he acts the way he does, etc. The answer is very simple: Because he can. Had the Vikings threatened to pull the plug or lower the offer at any time, we may have seen different behavior from Brett.

And, of course, what would an NFL offseason be without bad behavior?

Donte Stallworth gave us a chilling reminder of how a blink of an eye can change a career and, much more tragically, a life.

Plaxico Burress gave up his self-delusion that he would get another large contract and avoid jail time and finally accepted reality and took the plea bargain for his crime.

Brandon Marshall

Brandon Marshall was suspended for conduct detrimental to the Broncos due to his scripted insubordination.

Now, however, “me” season is over, and as we look into the crystal ball for the 2009 season, it’s important to remember the adage, “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” There will be some constants in 2009, such as:

– The teams that have been built for sustained success—Giants, Packers, Eagles, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Titans, Ravens, etc.—will likely continue to have success.

– The teams drafting high in the 2009 NFL Draft—due to a poor record in 2008—will likely have the top choices in the 2010 draft, due to a poor record in 2009.

– Wide receiver divas such as Terrell Owens, Marshall, Ochocinco, Boldin, and others will have production on the field but cause headaches for their teams off it. Memo to Denver: Throwing money at Marshall will not solve the problem. Step away from the bargaining table now!

– A month from now, there will be three or four teams talking about 2010 already. So much for 2009.

– Brett Favre will give weekly press conferences where he’ll say things like, “I’m not saying….” which means he is saying, “I don’t care about records…” and “This will be my last year…” And people will believe him.

– Teams will be very hesitant to extend contracts this season (save for a record-setting deal to come soon for DeMarcus Ware) due to, in some cases, cash flow issues, but in most cases because of the great uncertainty about a future that appears to include no salary cap in 2010 and potentially no football in 2011.

Roger Goodell

– Commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith will do more negotiating in the media than with each other about a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Only a deadline—perhaps Mar. 1—will spur action.

– The combative relationship between the NFL and cable companies over carriage of NFL Network will continue, with the league holding to its price and insistence on not being placed on a sports tier.

– The tweeting issue will not go away. The league has covered the problem of tweeting immediately before and after games, but the individualistic nature of tweeting at times will outweigh the team-first mentality that coaches, management and the league desire. We have not seen the last of the tweaking of the tweeting rules.

– The blackout rule will be adjusted, although not enough to please teams and fans.

– Flatline coaches such as Andy Reid and Bill Belichick will frustrate fans and media with their platitude answers but will continue to win.

– Emotional and fiery coaches such as Tom Cable and Mike Singletary will delight fans and media with their outbursts as their teams will have similar mood swings.

– Richard Seymour will play for the Raiders and Michael Crabtree will sign with the 49ers; the financial consequences are too severe for them not to.

And, of course, the National Football Post will be publishing every day to bring you the best news, information, insight and opinion available about the sport we love. Enjoy the games and enjoy the NFP.

Follow me on Twitter: adbrandt

First, a comment on the opening salvos in the pending negotiations between the NFL and the NFL Players Association on a new collective bargaining agreement: Pay no attention to the rhetoric.

We’re in a full-on posturing phase as the two sides present their cases to the media and public. On the union side, executive director DeMaurice Smith has harped on the “show us your books” argument, to which the league has responded that it has shown enough.

On the league side, senior executives have said that they are not only expecting but are comfortable with an uncapped year in 2010, figuring it will hurt the players more than it will help them. The recent Forbes value rankings for all clubs—which I’ll address in detail next week—will be a new subject for both sides to put their spin on. The bottom line is that both sides aren’t negotiating yet; they are still posturing.

On to cutdown day…

Unless they have no heart, and have become immune to emotion through the cold business of the National Football League, this weekend is the hardest weekend of the year for front offices and coaches to manage from a personal, as well as professional, stance.

Approximately 25 percent of the players who have been working for them for months will now be pushed into a flooded market with hundreds of other players looking for a handful of open NFL jobs. By Labor Day, the labor force in the NFL will have shrunk by a quarter.

Being on the Same Page

Andy Reid and the Eagles’ front office personnel will have tough roster decisions to make by Saturday.

Cutdown day also shows the symmetry, or lack thereof, of teams’ front offices. Every team tries to have the three areas of the football operation—coaching, personnel and contract/cap management—on the same page, but inevitably one of the three prongs wields more influence. The makeup of the final roster is a defining moment for the power source of the team because these decisions can have lasting effects for years.

Coaches tend to favor older players familiar with their systems and more dependable in tense situations. They will sacrifice higher upside to have a better insurance policy in place.

Personnel staffs tend to prefer young players they have brought in to develop. They fear the prospect of those players playing for someone else after the investment made in them. They advocate patience with draft choices, even from previous years, rather than pushing them farther down the depth chart or off the team. Also, younger players usually play special teams; veteran players are more reluctant to do so.

Cap and contract managers play advisory roles in the process, mapping out scenarios of cap room and cash commitments with different rosters. I would often have up to 10 roster scenarios, and the cap/cash commitments associated with each. Cap/contract managers are also responsible for monitoring the risk on vested players, for whom the team is fully responsible for the year’s salary if the player is on the roster the first weekend of the season.

Also, of course, cap/contract managers have to allow for budgets for practice squad, injured players, injury settlements, injury replacements, planned contract extensions, planned earned incentives, etc. With the rules changing this year due to no cap in 2010, these forecasts are more important than ever.

The Bane of Teams’ Existence: Injuries

Injury discussions are the most vital conversations of the weekend. The type and length of injuries of players on the roster bubble are debated intensely; roster decisions have to be made that affect whether these players will be kept on the roster, released, released with an injury settlement or placed on season-ending injured reserve. For players with four- to six-week injuries, such as MCL strains, high-ankle sprains, and hamstring injuries, these decisions are especially difficult.

This is also the time when players are placed on reserve/injured with injuries that are, uh, season-ending. Officially, the team doctor has to certify that the injury is “major,” which qualifies it for a minimum six-week time frame and can leave the upper time limit indefinite.

As to confirming the veracity of such injuries, the league has spot-checkers who appear at team headquarters to check on them. However, this seldom happens; in my nine years with the Packers, I encountered one spot-checker.

As to the underbelly/unknown side of what really happens with injuries, there are situations that no one would believe unless they were there. I was always amazed that on the morning after the last preseason game, there would suddenly be a couple of injuries to players who were about to be released. These players checked out fine after the game, but had mysteriously developed injuries that would require them to receive their pay over the coming weeks or months (teams can’t release injured players; if they do, they’re subject to grievances).

Tim Couch, the former top pick in the 1999 NFL Draft, was a player who never solicited treatment in his time in Green Bay, but ended up filing a grievance for his elbow. I always wondered what happened to these players between the last preseason game and cutdown time that would eventually earn them tens, even hundreds, of thousands of dollars? I’m not saying…I’m just saying…

Cutting Down to 53 and 45—and Adding, and Cutting Again

Steve Spagnuolo may find a few players on the waiver wire that are upgrades to players on his current roster.

After all the debates and harangues in cutting the roster to 53, which usually include a more detailed discussion of what the game-day roster of 45 will look like, a team’s front office and coaches take a deep breath—and then it’s time to scour the league waiver wire for players who are better than the ones they have, sparking more debate about the 45- and 53-man rosters.

A staple of cutdown weekend is trade talk. The usual conversation between teams involves which players may be available, and the bluffing about how many teams may be interested if the team were to release the player.

The good personnel staffs are able to sift through the posturing and have conviction about the players they want and what they are willing to do to acquire them. The vast majority of players who are discussed are eventually released, and the majority of trades that occur are in exchange for the minimum allowable trade compensation, a “seventh if” pick—the trading team gets a seventh rounder if the traded player is on the 45- or 53-man roster for a certain number of games—in a future year.

Dreams Deferred and Dashed

This is a tough weekend. Hundreds of players have been working intensely for months, many since January, doing everything the team has asked them to do. Many of them had little or no chance of making the team from the moment they signed, but clung to dreams of turning enough heads to get a shot.

Now a member of the personnel staff is calling them, asking them to come by and start the process of handing in playbooks and taking exit physicals with trainers.

Almost half the group that assembled five weeks ago for training camp in any NFL city is gone. Although around 250 of those players will come back Monday as practice squad players, there is no time in the NFL calendar that displays the true cold, hard nature of the business as much as this one.

As I’ve said to dozens of players, it’s the numbers; there just aren’t enough spots. It’s not personal. Even when I said it, I knew it was a cliché, but what else can you say?

Enjoy the Labor Day weekend, despite the shrunken NFL labor force.

Be sure to get the best fantasy football products anywhere here at the National Football Post.

Follow me on Twitter: adbrandt

Why is it no surprise that Brett Favre signed with the Vikings?

The bigger news is that this surprises anyone. Having lived through Brett’s long bouts of indecisiveness for many years, I know that this is predictable behavior from someone who’s a good guy but troubled by having to make decisions without a clear, apparent choice.

He would much rather have someone else, through his or her actions or words, make the decision for him.

On June 20, 2008, Favre had “the conversation” with Packers coach Mike McCarthy. Brett expressed his desire to get his helmet back from the Packers, a conversation that the Packers certainly should have expected. That’s when McCarthy said those three poignant words: “We’ve moved on.” That stung Brett and continues to resonate more than a year later.

Favre is back…to the surprise of nobody.

Through all the drama about Brett over the past several years, I have never felt any sense of closure from him about playing football. He retired a year ago because he wanted the Packers to court, woo and recruit him to play another year, as they had in the past. But he didn’t get that affection from the team he felt he had put into the national consciousness.

Brett wanted the Packers to make the decision on his return last year so that he wouldn’t have to. As it turned out, they did (it’s no coincidence that Brett retired on the day Randy Moss returned to the Patriots after another brief dalliance with the Packers in free agency).

I always felt Brett wanted to do in football what Roger Clemens was able to do in baseball: join a team early in the season, bypass the minutiae of training camp and the offseason and just play the games. Now he’s able to do that—sort of.

Why is there also no surprise as to the team signing Favre?

The Vikings have placed an added value on players and coaches associated with Green Bay. Brad Childress strategically used the fact he was about to interview with the Packers to secure a contract with the Vikings before boarding a plane to Green Bay.

The Vikings paid premiums for players such as Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell and chased other Packers players such as William Henderson, Craig Nall and Aaron Kampman.

They even took a coaches’ assistant away from Green Bay. Now they’ve landed the biggest fish that ever swam in the Green Bay waters, albeit a year removed from being a Packer.

Brett wanted to play for the Vikings last year, and there was mutual interest. That, thanks to the Packers controlling his rights, was not an option. The Vikings left the light on for him for over a year and he finally accepted their long-standing invitation. The early financial returns on his signing validate their decision from a financial point of view.

Darrell Bevell was the quarterbacks coach in Green Bay from 2003-2005. Interestingly, Brett took a while to warm up to Bevell—Darrell had to earn Brett’s respect as a young coach with little experience, and Brett had a hard time listening to him. They eventually developed a relationship, which is the genesis of this marriage.

Why is the contract he signed déjà vu all over again?

When I negotiated Brett’s 10-year, $100-million contract with his agent, Bus Cook, for the Packers in 2001, Bus and I felt that we would be lucky to get three years out of that contract. It actually lasted until a couple of months ago when the Jets terminated the contract in order to allow Brett, for the first time in his career, to exercise his rights as a free agent.

The amounts for years eight and nine of that contract, which would have been 2008 and 2009, were $12M and $13M, respectively. Brett will make those exact amounts in a two-year, $25-million contract he signed with the Vikings.

As to this year, that amount essentially became guaranteed when Brett walked on the practice field Tuesday as he will be paid his salary were an injury to occur. As for next year, well, we’ll certainly wait out his decision again in a few months, an annual rite of spring for those who follow the NFL.

Why does Brett have the Wally Pipp syndrome?

Brett has an insecurity about him that is not logical for one of the most established players in the game. He knew how he got his job—Don Majkowski was injured—and how he could lose it in the blink of an eye. Thus, his relationships with rising young backup quarterbacks were always at arm’s length.

I saw this from afar in representing Matt Hasselbeck 10 years ago and up close in watching him and Aaron Rodgers for three seasons.

The bottom line is that he wants to continue to play, and unlike other “retired” players such as Edgerrin James, Deuce McAllister and Marvin Harrison, he had a suitor that wanted him to unretire. The fact that the suitor is a rival of the team that didn’t hold his seat while he excused himself for a couple months certainly adds to the continuing miniseries.

Brett is back, although he never really left.

Follow me on Twitter: @adbrandt