Three Up, Three Down: NFC Version

In part two of my “Three Up, Three Down” series, we’ll take a quick look at the NFC. To me, the NFC seems to be much more difficult to predict than the AFC, but I’ll give it a shot. Here are the six teams that I believe will have a different outcome this season than they had last season.

 

Three teams up

 

New Orleans Saints

The Saints came into 2008 with high expectations, only to finish the season at 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Injuries to Reggie Bush, Marquis Colston, Tracy Porter, Jeremy Shockey, and now ex-Saint Deuce McAllister derailed the Saints’ “playoff train”.

This offseason, the Saints added a veteran playmaker and a highly touted cornerback to their much maligned secondary. Darren Sharper will provide leadership to the secondary, while Malcolm Jenkins will join Tracy Porter and Randall Gay in a much improved secondary. Another season in the Saints defense should also be very beneficial to Jonathan Vilma and the Saints defense as a whole.

These reasons along the healthy return of the previously listed injured players will be enough to propel the Saints to a playoff birth in 2009.

 

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks had owned the NFC West up to last season. This season, they look to reclaim their crown as the kings of the NFC West.

The return of Matt Hasselbeck and Walter Jones would be enough to for the Seahawks to contend in the NFC West. But the additions of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Corey Redding, and first-round pick Aaron Curry could be enough to put the Seahawks back on top of the division.

Aaron Curry with Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill could be one of the best linebacking corps in the entire NFL.

Also, the promotion of Jim Mora Jr. could be exactly what the veteran Seahawks team needs. Sometimes, a change of head coach lights a fire under some players, creates competition, and changes the same voice and message that players have heard for numerous years.

These reasons lead me to believe that the Seahawks will make the playoffs and possibly replace the Arizona Cardinals at the top of the NFC West.

 

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had a good enough offense and a good enough secondary to make the playoffs last season, but a leaky front seven proved too much for the Packers to overcome. But now, in the second season of the Aaron Rodgers’ era, the Pack will be back.

During the offseason the Packers decided to switch to a 3-4 defensive alignment, and they brought in 3-4 guru, Dom Capers, to institute the change.

With their two first-round picks, the Packers gave Capers two much-needed pieces to succeed. B.J. Raji gives the D-line a much needed playmaker, and Clay Matthews gives them a versatile linebacker that should thrive in this system.

Last season, Aaron Rodgers was in his first season as a starter and played very well. Now with one season under his belt, Rodgers should progress even more and lead an explosive offense in an offensively challenged NFC North.

For these reasons, I believe the Packers and their improved defense will make the playoffs.

 

Three teams down

 

New York Giants

The Giants defended their Super Bowl championship by going 12-4, but the lack of a proven wide receiver, questions at safety, the loss of a running back, and changes in the coaching staff will be too much for the Giants to overcome in a loaded NFC East.

Eli Manning was at his best when he had Plaxico Burress dictating what coverages he’d see. The loss of Burress and having no other proven wide out will cause Manning and the Giants offense to struggle this season, as they did after the loss of Burress last season.

The Giants did draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round, but rarely does a rookie wideout make a huge impact.

The Giants also lost Derrick Ward in free agency. With Brandon Jacobs’ physical running style often causing him to suffer injuries, Ward will be missed.

After their most recent mini-camp, Giants new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan expressed concerns about the safety position.

The losses of James Butler and R.W. McQuarters leaves the Giants thin and without much experience at the position. Leaving only Kenny Phillips, former seventh round pick Michael Johnson, and former Texan C.C. Brown at the back end of the defense.

Finally, the loss of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could be huge. Not until his promotion to coordinator did the Giants defense excel.

Even though they are a very talented team, these losses and playing in a loaded division will cause the Giants to miss the playoffs in 2009.

 

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers used an ultra-physical style of football to win the NFC South last season and the NFC’s second seed in the playoffs. But this season, the Julius Peppers’ situation and Jake Delhomme’s sometimes awful play will not allow the Panthers to repeat their feats of the 2008 season.

There have not been a lot of changes for the Panthers this offseason, so how can I say that a team that played so well last season will fall so far?

Two reasons:

1. The Julius Peppers’ situation. Not only will the Panthers be missing one of the elite defensive ends in the game, but the way both he and the Panthers are handling this situation will be a distraction for the team all season.

2. Jake Delhomme. His play during the playoffs was horrendous. He too often has shown a tendency to have just terrible games. Every quarterback will have off games, but when he is off, he can single-handedly lose a game.

And he’s not getting any younger.

I believe that the Julius Peppers distraction and Delhomme’s mind-numbing inconsistency will cause the Panthers to miss the playoffs this season.

 

Atlanta Falcons

This was the hardest pick to make. Actually, it’s the one that I have the most doubts about making, but what leads me to say that the Falcons will not make the playoffs is their defense.

When a team uses six of their seven picks on defensive players you know they have issues there.

At best, their secondary is average, with the projected starters being: Von Hutchins, Chris Houston, Thomas DeCoud, and Erik Coleman.

The losses of team leader Keith Brooking, run stopping D-lineman Grady Jackson, versatile linebacker Michael Boley, and cornerback Domonique Foxworth can’t help things either.

The Falcons defense is the reason that I expect the Atlanta Falcons to miss the playoffs.

 

NFL Power Rankings: An Alternative View

Now that the draft is over and mini-camps have started around the league, the next onslaught of information coming your way will be the never-ending stream of “NFL Power Rankings.”

In some ways, PossessionPoints.com is no different than other information outlets in that we will be presenting our own version of Power Rankings weekly during the season.  However, that is where the similarity ends.

We believe that when people look at the lists of Power Rankings they want to see how their favorite team fares in the eyes of those who construct these Power Rankings and if their team has a chance of making it to the playoffs or the Super Bowl.

We would like to state right off the bat that a team’s talent is just one of the factors that determines a team’s win-loss record and a possible playoff berth.

In this article, we would like to highlight four factors that contribute to a team’s final win-loss record.

Those factors are randomness, schedule, home field advantage, and team quality (traditional Power Ranking if you will). We have provided a lot of the background information for this article on a page on our site.

 

Randomness

We know that over the course of a season, a team’s final win-loss record is more than random luck. Much of a team’s success does depend on talent.

However, imagine if you will, a scenario where all 32 teams are completely equal in the talent department and there is no such thing as a home field advantage.  If these conditions existed, what kind of records do you think you would see?

Do you think that almost all teams would have win-loss records between 7-9 and 9-7?

We put together a quick little spreadsheet and used the 2009 schedule to come up with random results for all 256 games on the schedule.

We posted some of the “random season” results on our site, and the results surprised us in that typically, the top teams had 12-4 records, and the bottom teams finished around 4-12.

It may seem strange, until you consider the fact that the chance of winning or losing 12 out of 16 coin tosses is about one in 36, and 11 wins or losses of 16 coin tosses is about one in 15.

So, applying this same principle with 32 teams each season, it does make sense that just by random chance, some teams would go 12-4, and some would go 4-12.

We always expect extremes to be rare, and the odds of a random 16-0 or 0-16 record are around 1 in 65,000. As we were working with our spreadsheet, we did see this extreme occur, and it happened on our spreadsheet to the NY Jets.  

We did not purposely focus on the Jets. It could have been any of the teams, and we could have used any season schedule to get similar results.

We will grant you that the football sometimes takes funny bounces, and this can be a factor in some games during the season making luck or chance a legitimate portion in a team’s win-loss record.

It is a totally unpredictable factor, and therefore, it cannot be incorporated into analysis and forecasting equations.

Since equations are our thing, we do not want to spend that much time talking about randomness, but we also do not want you to dismiss the fact that it can affect a team’s win-loss record.

Schedule:

Take any ranking system.  We do not care if it is an expert’s Power Rankings or last year’s win-loss rankings. You can pick whatever. Play these rankings against this year’s schedule, and you may be surprised at what you find.

To illustrate this point, we took a look at some 2009 Power Rankings that have already been published. For what we are doing in this article, it does not matter if you accept this order as realistic or not. In the example we chose to focus on, the 32 teams were ranked:

We played these rankings against this year’s schedule neglecting home field advantage or any randomness.

In this scenario, if a team plays a higher-ranked team, the lower-ranked team gets the loss while the higher-ranked wins. 

When we played these rankings against the 2009 schedule in this manner, it was no surprise that the top nine teams would become playoff teams.

However, the No. 10 Dolphins would miss the playoffs with a record of 9-7 while the No. 11 Vikings would also miss the playoffs with a record of 10-6.

The next playoff team this list for the 2009 season would be the No.12 Eagles who play 11 teams that rank lower than the Eagles and only five teams that rank higher. This would give the Eagles an 11-5 record and a wild-card playoff spot.

Based on these rankings and their schedule, the No. 13 Packers, like the Vikings, would also miss the NFC playoffs with a 10-6 record.

The No. 14 Cardinals and No. 15 Chargers would win their divisions and make the playoffs with 9-7 and 10-6 records respectively.

One would like to think that the 12 best teams make the playoffs each year, but that just is not possible with the way the NFL schedule works, even if every team plays perfectly to its capability each week.

 

Home Field Advantage

Now, we are going to get a little more complicated (yes, it is true) but stay with us. To be able to work with home field advantage variations, this we had to quantify how much better one team was relative to another.

To keep this as simple as possible, we assumed the difference between each team was a constant.

So, the top ranked team was assigned a +8 (just our own statistical yardstick), the second team a +7.5, the third team a +7. Each team was graded 0.5 away from the one next to it, and the value of 0 was skipped so the bottom team had a -8.

With this tight a ranking in our system, very small changes in the value of home field make a big difference.

Now, we can start modifying how much home field is worth and observe what happens to win -loss records and playoff scenarios.

In the extreme adjustment of home field advantage, all teams would be 8-8, wining all their home games and losing all their road games. This would be boring. Who wants the home team to always win?

Once again, we used the same example rankings. When we made the home field advantage factor worth just one percent, the playoff picture changed very little.

The No. 12 Eagles fell into a tie for the final NFC wild-card playoff spot as they saw their record fall to 10-6. However, it was not the No. 11 Vikings with whom they tied. It was the No. 13 Packers.

When we bumped up home field to two percent, the Packers’ record rose to 12-4, and they tied the Bears for the division. The Vikings remained behind them with a record of 10-6.

At this level, the Eagles miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The Cardinals would still win the NFC west but now with an 11-5 record. The AFC playoff picture would remain unchanged.

At the four percent level, the Bears, Vikings and Packers all make the playoffs with 11-5 records. The Panthers and Falcons would tie for the NFC South title with 10-6 records.

The only point of this little exercise is to illustrate what many people take as a given. Schedule combined with a home field advantage does play a role in a team’s season and win-loss record.

Yet, many Power Rankings omit these factors. Even with the constant distribution of team quality that we used, you can see how the value of home field can change win-loss records and the playoff picture.

 

Team Quality (Traditional Power Ranking)

Most “Power Rankings” authors are trying to enumerate teams in order of quality. In other words, best teams are ranked highest and the not-as-talented teams are ranked at the bottom.

The question we always come up with is: How much better is the No. 1 team over the No. 2 team or even the No. 10 team?

An even distribution like we used in the “home field” analysis above is not a very realistic distribution.

The top team may be well ahead of the remainder of the league, as it was with the 2007 Patriots, or the top five teams may be very close together like last season was by our measure.

The same is true at the bottom. By our measure, the 2008 Lions fell well below the rest of the league.

To illustrate this, we took the same rankings and gave the top 12 teams relative performance grades between 34 and 45 (Again, our statistical yardstick).

The bottom 12 teams got values between -34 and -45 while the middle eight teams were given values between 4 and -4.

Of course with no home field advantage, the records are the same as we described in the “schedule” section.

We need to vary home field by larger increments now since the separation between the 32 teams is much greater being between 45 and -45 as opposed to 8 and -8 in the example above.

At a four percent adjustment, the Chargers no longer make the playoffs and are replaced by the Broncos who had a “Power Ranking” of 18. The Bears and Vikings make the playoffs while the Packers do not.

At a 15 percent adjustment, the Chargers are back in with a 9-7 record while the Broncos fall out with an 8-8 record. The Packers move back into contention for a playoff spot as their record equals the Vikings at 11-5. A tie breaker would determine who made the playoffs.

 

So What?

You are probably thinking, “So what, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say anything you want.”

Well, not really, even given their relatively low power ranking of 14 there was virtually nothing we could do to make the Cardinals miss the playoffs. The NFC playoff picture fluctuated much more than the AFC playoff picture did.

Even if an all-knowing supernatural NFL power provided a perfectly ordered list of best to worst teams, the chances that the top 12 teams on this list make the playoffs would be very slim for the reasons we have explained.

 

A Different List

As we said at the start of the article, we also publish a list that resembles the “Power Rankings” list. We call it our “Performance Rankings” because it is based on how teams perform in our PossessionPoints stat.

We are not going to explain all that goes into our stat in this article because we would bore you to death, but the end result is a positive or negative number we call the “Relative Performance Measure” or RPM.

Our RPM list is just the ranking of teams from the largest RPM to the smallest. But with the RPM, you can see how close one team is to another.

In fact, two adjacent teams may either be a fraction or several numbers apart. Typically the 32 teams will be spread over a 90-point or more range.

Below is a Performance Rankings chart. The last column, on the right shows the final RPM from last season (with one exception we will talk about later).

It should be no surprise to note that the Steelers are on the top of the RPM list, and the Lions are on the bottom. Where some teams fell in the middle might be a surprise to some fans, but that is where the stat put them.

Some of you might be thinking, “Last year is history, why are you showing this now?”

 

 

Well, if you look at the chart and each team’s win-loss record, you will note that these records are not the win-loss records from 2008. 

What these win-loss columns show is a projection of each team for 2009 if each of the teams played their 2009 schedule at the same RPM level as 2008.

Do Not Panic!  This is at best a partial look at what’s ahead.  We have not made our modifications for off-season trades and drafts.

The one adjustment we talked about comes into play here. The Panthers’ 2008 RPM was not good. We adjusted them so they would fall with the leaders up at No. 7, within 8 points of the top ranked Steelers.

Even with that adjustment, when we played the Panthers revised RPM against their schedule with a four percent home field adjustment, Carolina ends up with a 9-7 record. (Four percent home field adjustment is the best historical adjustment for our RPM).

Conversely, look at the No. 17 Cardinals. They had an RPM of 10.93 (the Super Bowl brought them down some). However, when we play that RPM against their 2009 schedule, we project a 12-4 record.

We could find a lot of interesting facts in this chart, but we are just going to focus on one more. The No. 13 Falcons and the No. 14 Saints are in the same division and had very similar 2008 RPMs of 12 and 14.

Yet, if the No. 14 Saints play at the same level of their 2008 RPM in 2009, we project that they would have a 10-6 record while the No.13 Falcons would go to just 8-8.

Our list ranks teams based on how they perform in our stat. History has shown us that this is a pretty good way to look at which teams can ultimately win in the playoffs. Our list would be sorted much differently if we sorted teams just by projected wins.

In a nutshell, we believe that Performance Rankings are more than just opinion-based lists. Factors such as home field advantage and strength of schedule have to come into play as well if fans are going to get a real feel for how their team’s chances at success.

This season we will add “Projected Win-Loss Records” to the RPM value when we publish our weekly rankings. This way readers will get a feel for relative quality from the RPM number as well as how it would appear to project to wins and losses. 

(For more background on how the RPM shows itself in the Playoffs you may want to read an article we wrote during last year’s playoffs “NFL Playoff Upsets: What Upsets?”)  

The 2009 New York Jets: Are Their New Wings Ready For Take-Off?

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Last season, the New York Jets desperately wanted to be a team built to win now, but this season seem content with winning soon instead, and rightfully so. Jets fans should be excited about its new foundation and the prospects of watching a young, talented team begin to grow together and perhaps carry the team into the playoffs.

After a torrid start to begin the 2008 season, buoyed offensively by the threat of having a QB under center that could throw a football more than 20 yards and highlighted by an emotional defeat of the New England Patriots, the Jets fell victim to age and injuries in the second half. Inexperience and chemistry became major problems for the team in the final stretch, as derisive chatter began to filter from their locker room to the media and QB Brett Favre fought a biceps injury that limited the offense’s effectiveness. A talented yet inexperienced defensive unit could not pick up enough of the offense’s slack, and the Jets’ season of high-flying hopes spiraled back to earth, crashing and burning on the turf of Giants Stadium on the final Sunday of the season.

Major changes were on tap for the 2009 edition of the Jets and quickly came to pass after the devastating season ending loss to the Chad Pennington-led Miami Dolphins, chief among them being the hiring of former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan as the team’s new head coach and new mouthpiece. The team then followed last off-season’s spending spree with a relatively subdued signing period, with the biggest name on their list of targets being LB Bart Scott, who the team inked to a long term contract. Scott was a mainstay of the Ravens’ staunch defense whom Ryan hopes will bring leadership and intangibles to the roster, along with his 433 career tackles.

Other key additions to the roster come on the defensive side, as the team traded conditional draft picks to the Philadelphia Eagles for CB Lito Sheppard, signed S Jim Leonhard away from the Ravens and brought in 14 year veteran and Dolphins and Patriots mainstay Larry Izzo. Izzo is considered Special Teams royalty and should boost that unit for the Jets along with adding depth to the LB rotation in Ryan’s 3-4 and 46 defensive schemes.

While Sheppard is expected to team with ball-hawking Pro Bowlers CB Darelle Revis and S Kerry Rhodes in the Jets’ defensive backfield to shut down opposing passing attacks, his health has always been an obstacle to his potential. Leonhard is an undersized, and once undervalued, safety who found his niche in Ryan’s gritty defense in Baltimore and joined Scott in quickly reuniting with their former coach in New York. These moves should pay large dividends for the Jets on defense and special teams, adding depth, experience and talent to the Jets corps and providing the energy and rotation the team sorely lacked in the stretch run toward the playoffs last season.

The offense was certainly not ignored this off-season but most feel the attention it merits hasn’t yet been paid to it. The Jets did identify that the team no longer has interest in employing placeholder QBs and a vanilla, low-impact offensive approach, and desires strong performances, presence and leadership from the QB position and in doing so traded up in the first round of the draft to select USC QB Mark Sanchez to fill that void. Sanchez’ aptitude for the playbook and his relationships with teammates and the media this summer will go a long way to determining whether he is the franchise QB the Jets have been missing for almost their entire history.

The team is also in need of help at the WR position, having allowed top receiver Laveranues Coles to sign with the Bengals in free agency and doing nothing yet to upgrade that corp. The team continues to monitor the status of veteran stars Marvin Harrison and Plaxico Burress, and could bring either one in before the season begins to some effectiveness. However, there are weapons at the other positions in WRs Jerricho Cotchery, Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey, while Dustin Keller should continue to develop into a solid pass catching TE and will have to after the team allowed incumbent Chris Baker leave via free agency.

Another developing plot heading into Jets voluntary camps that could have major ramifications on the upcoming season has been the vocal unhappiness of both running backs Leon Washington and Thomas Jones over their respective contract situations. While the team has been negotiating with Washington on a new contract and hefty raise from his rookie contract, Jones is moving into the tail-end of his contract, paying him far less than his previous two seasons and could find himself a salary cap casualty. Seemingly in anticipation of this situation, the Jets traded up in the third round of this year’s draft to select dynamic RB Shonn Greene out of the University of Iowa and it does not seem farfetched that Greene could become a backfield tandem with Washington, while the Jets part ways with Jones and free up cap space to fill other needs, such as WR. However, Coach Ryan witnessed the success a team can have employing three RBs with different styles last season in Baltimore and it is not out of the realm of possibility to think a Jones-Washington-Greene tandem could be devastating to NFL defenses and powerful support to a rookie starting QB.

The Jets offense is still a work in progress, but moving beyond the specter of Brett Favre should also prove to be a galvanizing source to many players in the locker room, whether they believe Favre’s arrival to be the driving force behind their Super Bowl hopes and 8-3 start in 2008, or they believe that 2009 should end better solely because of his absence. The defense and special teams units showed flashes of brilliance last year and kept the Jets in games that it might not have won otherwise, and should be vastly improved through their draft and free agent additions and new coaching philosophy.

One thing is certain- during this current building (not rebuilding) phase, team chemistry will be more critical to the Jets’ success than ever before. And if things work on the field as well as they seem to appear on paper, 2009 could prove a turning point in the direction of the franchise.

Roster Report: The NY Giants Faced With Few Holes

With training camp around the corner, the New York Giants face a depth chart increasingly stacked with talent and some tough decisions in the near future.

If there’s one thing GM Jerry Reese has prided himself on in his short tenure, it’s creating competition. There’s no complacency when it comes to being a starter for the Giants, and this year is no different.

But there are some holes, and while they’re not of the dire variety, how Reese addresses these holes could go a long way in determining the Giants’ future.

One of the biggest areas of concern heading into camp is depth on the offensive line. The Giants are widely respected as being one of the top running teams in the NFL, and their O-line is recognized as being one of the best, if not the best, units in the league.

One of the main reasons for their success is the fact the starting unit has been on an unbelievable streak of remaining injury free.

Over the past four years, LT David Diehl and RG Chris Snee have made 64-straight starts. Center Shaun O’Hara has missed one start during that four-year period, and RT Kareem McKenzie has missed three starts in that time. LG Rich Seubert, the only starter who hasn’t been a part of the first unit for at least four years, has made 32 straight starts.

An injury-free run like that, especially considering the physical demands offensive linemen face, can’t continue. So what happens when someone goes down?

At tackle, the Giants have Guy Whimper, Kevin Boothe, Adam Koets, and second-round pick William Beatty. If Diehl or McKenzie are out for an extended period, I don’t have the confidence that any of the backups could step in without a significant decline in the OL’s effectiveness.

At guard, Boothe could step in if needed, but again, I wouldn’t be comfortable. There’s really no one else of note to backup the guard spot, which is a concern.

Another concern is that the backup center is Seubert, which, should O’Hara go down, would open up a spot at guard that the Giants are not adequately capable of filling.

One possibility is that the Giants bring back Grey Ruegamer. Not the most talented lineman, Ruegamer’s true value is in his versatility. Another option is for Reese to wait for the first round of camp cuts to find some bodies.

Another hole can be found at the No. 1 WR spot. Giants fans were convinced the G-Men would be trading for Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin, thus filling the void left by Plaxico Burress. But Reese determined the price — in draft picks and contract dollars — to be too high for Edwards or Boldin, so Eli Manning is left with an inexperienced corps of receivers. Rookie Hakeem Nicks will join Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon in New York’s top tier of WRs. The next tier has Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss and rookie Ramses Barden. David Tyree, Micah Rucker, Derek Hagan and Shaun Bodiford also will compete for spots.

While Smith is widely believed to be a slot receiver, and a very good one at that, many Giants fans believe Hixon can step in and be a No. 1 WR. I, on the other hand, don’t agree with that assessment. Hixon, in small bursts, has proved to be a capable receiver. But I don’t believe he could handle the rigors of a 16-game season. Some have even stated that Manningham is a future No. 1. Again, I’m not a believer. A lack of football smarts has followed Manningham around since his college days at Michigan, and understanding the nuances of the WR position in the NFL is one of the most difficult jobs in the league.

One option out there to fill the void is free agent Marvin Harrison. Released by the Colts, Harrison hasn’t been receiving much interest around the league. And being that the Giants haven’t shown any interest in Harrison, nor did they show any interest in Torry Holt before he signed with Jacksonville, I don’t see Harrison in Big Blue anytime soon.

On defense, the most noticeable holes seem to be strong safety, strong side linebacker and backup middle linebacker.

Many Giants fans like the aggressive play of last year’s starting strong safety, Michael Johnson. But it’s that same aggressive play that has been at the root of many big plays the Giants defense has given up the last two years.

Texans vet C.C. Brown, a starter the last three years, and undrafted free agent Sha’reff Rashad, whom Giants coaches have raved about, could push Johnson to the bench. Someone in that trio needs to step up and provide some continuity next to Kenny Phillips.

OLB was obviously a concern for the Giants, as they went out and signed Falcons LB Michael Boley and drafted Virginia LB Clint Sintim in the second round of last month’s draft. While Boley is no doubt the starting WLB, the question is, who will start on the other side?

Last year’s starter, Danny Clark, is a dime-a-dozen type that really shouldn’t be starting for an elite defense. Sintim is a good prospect, but he struggles at covering backs and tight ends, which is exactly the kind of thing that could destroy an otherwise solid unit. The best option is likely to be Bryan Kehl, a fourth-round pick in the 2008 draft. Kehl started two games last season and showed a good mix of instincts and athletic ability.

While I think Reese did a great job with the draft, my biggest knock was that he didn’t go out and get a future replacement for MLB Antonio Pierce.

Pierce has missed only four games in his four years with the Giants, but many fans, myself included, believe his skills are diminishing. Getting a future field general to groom will be difficult to do at this time of the offseason. I would have been much happier with the draft had the Giants drafted South Carolina’s Jasper Brinkley or Southern Miss LB Gerald McRath.

 

 

 

Reflections on the 2004 Steelers: The Year of the Quarterback

There have been several articles by Steelers’ fans reliving the incredible rides that resulted in the two recent Steelers’ Super Bowls.  Those were both incredible experiences and I still haven’t quite come down from the last one. 

But, for me, one of my all-time favorite Steelers’ seasons was 2004, the year of the quarterback.  That is a season that is largely forgotten, a mere footnote en route to the Super Bowl seasons, which is too bad. 

Because, that season may represent the single greatest accomplishment by a quarterback in the history of the league.  That was the magical season in which Ben Roethlisberger set an NFL record that may never be broken. 

As a rookie thrust into action due to injury, he won his first 14 starts.  No rookie has even come close to doing that.  I do not expect to live long enough to see a rookie quarterback break that record.

And, but for fate stepping in, it would never have happened.  The Steelers were intent on easing Roethlisberger into the lineup gradually, letting him learn from veteran quarterbacks Tommy Maddox and Charlie Batch. 

That was the conventional wisdom on how you handle a rookie quarterback.  But, as has often the case with Big Ben, conventional wisdom was wrong.

Ben started that pre-season No. 3 on the depth chart.  Batch was injured during the pre-season which moved Ben up to No. 2 on the depth chart.  After winning their opener, the Steelers were getting mauled by the Ravens in the second game when Maddox was knocked out with an injury. 

Roethlisberger took the field and the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh officially began. 
While they lost that game, Roethlisberger played superb in relief against one the league’s best defenses. 

I couldn’t wait to see how he would do as the starter.  What he did was breathtaking.

Remember when the big bad Patriots came to town carrying their NFL-record 21-game win streak?  It was a David vs. Goliath game, the rookie Roethlisberger versus one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, Tom Brady.  That Patriots team was one of the highest regarded teams of the last three decades. 

Roethlisberger played a near perfect game and the Steelers rolled to a surprisingly easy 34-20 victory, ending the Patriots’ win streak.  On the day, he completed 18 of his 24 pass attempts for 196 yards, two TDs and no turnovers.

My dad was at the game with an old Army buddy from Boston who went to that game in a Patriots’ jersey.  Needless to say, his buddy had a rough time at that one and took plenty of grief from Steelers’ fans.

The win was memorialized in one of my all-time favorite Steelers’ commercials honoring Christmas, the one that showed the picture-perfect pass from Roethlisberger to Plaxico Burress in the end zone with “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” playing in the background. 

While it wasn’t quite Mean Joe Greene with a bottle of coke throwing his jersey to a little boy, it ranks high on my list of all-time favorite commercials.

The very next week, the best team in the NFC came calling, the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles.  The Steelers promptly destroyed them, winning 27-3 on another outstanding performance from Big Ben and the defense. 

What I remember most about that game was watching Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens go at it on the sideline late in the game. 

Owens was giving McNabb an earful while McNabb tried his best to ignore him.  The game heralded the start of a hatefest on the team from the City of Brotherly Love.   

A couple weeks later, the Steelers matched up against the New York Giants and the rookie quarterback drafted ten spots before Roethlisberger.  While Eli Manning played well in that game, he couldn’t match Big Ben. 

The Steelers won 33-30.  Roethlisberger was absolutely superb, posting his first 300-yard passing game in the shootout. He threw for 316 yards and a TD.  He also led his fifth game-winning drive of the season.  

While Big Ben was Mr. Clutch in 2009, often impersonating his hero, John Elway, while leading the Steelers back late, he started that act in his very first season. 

There is, quite simply, no quarterback better at leading a team to victory in the fourth quarter than Roethlisberger.  With him at the helm of the offense, the Steelers are never out of games. 

It is hard to believe that many critics and writers have claimed Big Ben was just along for the ride with a great team during his first couple years in Pittsburgh. 

The great thing about being a critic, apparently, is you can say whatever you want no matter how foolish, even if you don’t watch the games. 

What is sad is how much of those early assessments have stuck when it comes to Big Ben.  It is somewhat understandable. 

Frankly, people were at a loss what to make of that season because it was so unique.  What was  accomplished was so incredible, so paradigm shattering, that people had a difficult time digesting it and instead attempted to explain it away. 

Never before had a rookie quarterback come anywhere close to doing what Big Ben and his Steelers did that year.  That is just not how it was supposed to work. 

Even some of his own teammates were doubters.  They knew all too well that rookie quarterbacks have a track record of utter and complete failure.   

Remember Alan Faneca lamenting when Maddox went down that a rookie quarterback couldn’t lead them to the Promised Land?

Roethlisberger’s magical season changed the way that teams look at rookie quarterbacks and may have paved the way for Matt Ryan’s and Joe Flacco’s successes last year. 

At the beginning of last season, Ray Lewis grabbed Joe Flacco and reminded him what Big Ben was able to accomplish for the Steelers and challenged him to do the same. 

Roethlisberger’s 2004 season has become the marker by which all rookie quarterbacks are measured.  And for those who constantly want to throw an asterisk, a “Yeah, but…” after acknowledging it, they can kiss Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl rings.

The season ended on a bad note for Steelers’ Nation.  After winning his first playoff game against the New York Jets in a disappointing outing, Roethlisberger and the Steelers fell against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. 

It was after that game that a tear-stained Roethlisberger made a promise to Jerome Bettis to get him to his first Super Bowl.  And, one thing we’ve come to know about Big Ben is that he keeps his promises.

That season gets short shrift by a sportswriting community that does not want to give Big Ben his due for his greatness.  He was just a good player on a great team. 

Of course, it was the same great team that finished 6-10 the year before allowing the Steelers to even draft Big Ben.  Others point to the running game and put the credit for the Steelers’ success there, but that year’s Steelers team ran so well largely because the passing game was feared. 

It was all too often Roethlisberger’s arm that staked out the early leads and led the Steelers back late when they fell behind.

So, while it ended prematurely, it is still one of my all-time favorite Steelers’ seasons.  We finally knew we had ourselves one heck of a quarterback. 

We knew one for the thumb was right around the corner with the hope for even more.  Bad memories of Bubby Brister, Neal O’Donnell and Kordell Stewart were mostly, although not completely, purged from our collective memory. 

Sadly, it was also the last season that the immortal Myron Cope would call Steelers’ games.  And, for that reason as well, 2004 was one of the most special seasons in the history of the Black and Gold.  

A State of Flux: Jacksonville’s Coaching Staff

When you think about the Jacksonville Jaguars’ coaching staff, the word “stability” doesn’t immediately come to mind.
Sure, Head Coach Jack Del Rio has been at the helm for the last six years and is only the second coach in team history. But the former NFL linebacker has taken turns being on and off the hot seat in the past four years.
Perhaps Del Rio’s “big chair” has never been warmer than it is this year. The team languished through a 5-11 season that included a great deal of turmoil in the locker room.
The losing season, just his second in six years, couldn’t have come at a worse time. With the economy in shambles and an already lukewarm fan base, the Jaguars are in the midst of a perfect storm that is keeping ticket sales at a standstill. The bottom line is Wayne Weaver cannot afford to have another season like 2008, and neither can Del Rio if he wants to keep his job.
The head coaching position is not the only one with some buzz around it. Jacksonville goes into the season with its third defensive coordinator in as many years. Mel Tucker will try to tinker with a unit that was ranked 17th (330.9 yards per game) in total defense last year.
The team will also have a new special teams coach, as Russ Purnell takes over for Joe DeCamillis, who joined the Dallas Cowboys in the off-season.
At the end of the day, all that a coach can do on any level is put his team in the best position to win. It is up to the players to execute the game plan and make the necessary plays to be successful. However, we all know that the coach shoulders the blame when things go south, and Del Rio will be a sacrificial lamb if the Jaguars don’t excel in 2009.
Here’s a look at the key members of Jacksonville’s coaching staff, starting at the top.

The Wonder Years: The 1997 Chiefs Make History (Kind Of)

It was the season of false hopes, and my devotion flourished despite crushing disappointment.  The Chiefs boasted one of the winningest records of any team in the ’90s, but playoff success had not come. 

In 1997, the team battled to a 13-3 record and clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  At first glance, this was the edge that had been missing from previous playoff appearances.   

Behold the power of the 12th man.  Fueled by a cornucopia of tailgate meats for which the city is notorious, the sea of red at Arrowhead stadium is recognized as one of the most disruptive forces to opponents in all of sports. 

Beware the attempt to audible or change the snap count, as fans are sure to disrupt your futile efforts. 

Confidence pulsed in the hearts of Chief fans as the red and gold rumbled to an undefeated home record leading up to the playoffs. 

However, with the Denver Broncos coming to play in the divisional round many actually considered the Chiefs underdogs.  The two teams split games that year each winning at home.  

While John Elway was already a dirty word around town, it was a two touchdown performance by Denver running back Terrell Davis that knocked the Chiefs from an optimistic pedestal. 

Despite the sour turn of events in the playoffs, the 1997 Kansas City Chiefs is a squad to admire as a fallen gladiator among the heap of too-oft forgotten non-champions.

It’s a pleasure to highlight the team time forgot, but I will always remember and drew me to the Chiefs forever.

While most remember the season as inciting a quarterback controversy between Elvis Grbac and Rich Gannon, the success of the team was embodied in its voracious and wily defensive play.

Where the ’97 Chiefs defense seemed to be a crystal ball of the future was in the secondary. 

Current trends in the NFL show great emphasis on having at least one “shut-down” corner.  The catalyst and prime example of this trend was Denver trading premier running back Clinton Portis to the Washington Redskins for Champ Bailey. 

Not only did both Chiefs starting corners, Dale Carter and James Hasty, make the Pro Bowl, but nickel back Mark McMillian, a testament to the underdog as the smallest player in the league (5’7” 148 pounds) had eight interceptions of his own, returning three for touchdowns. 

Carter was a model for athleticism and Hasty a crafty veteran who proved that great corners extend their careers by being students of the game. 

The defense was further bolstered by the presence of Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Thomas, but there were unsung heroes in the trenches. 

Blue collar veteran journeyman Defensive Tackle Joe Phillips was the presence in the middle that embodied the “go-to-work” mentality of the defense and allowed Thomas and an “undersized” up and comer Donnie Edwards to make plays.

Tough and gritty are not often words associated with the primadonnas of the NFL, the wide receivers.  These egomaniacs are the focus of today’s passing game, but it wasn’t always so. 

Offensive linemen seldom get their due credit, but Chiefs fans witnessed weekly that the behemoths on the line fueled the offense.  The unit was highlighted by local heroes, guards Will Shields and Dave Szott, and center Tim Grunhard. 

At other positions, true Greg Hill was the starting running back, but fans were just waiting for future Hall-of-Famer Marcus Allen to take those goal-line carries and leap the pile for six.

Tony Gonzalez was still a backup, but the connection of Grbac (or Gannon) to Andre Rison was good for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns on the year.  Living up to the pressure for end zone celebration, Rison topped off every score by mimicking Spider-Man.

The year was more than simply successful in total wins, but the wins were earned in thrilling duels. 

A Pete Stoyanovich 50-yard field goal to beat the Broncos during the regular season was only outdone by a Monday night game with the Oakland Raiders. 

With no timeouts and 58 seconds to play Grbac took the team 80 yards completing a corner of the end zone pass to Rison for the win as time ran out.

I not only fell in love with the team, but the game.      

People like to win.  Witnessing one’s team win is the utopia of every fan.  However, in sport there must be a loser for every winner. 

By emotionally investing in this group of people who don’t even know me I submit to a rollercoaster of adrenaline, glee, and depression.  Remembering 1997, I know why I became the fan I am today.

Ravens: Analyzing the 2009 Schedule With Expectations

Week 1 – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00, CBS)

The Baltimore Ravens open their season at home against a Kansas City Chiefs team that certainly improved this offseason, adding Matt Cassel, Monty Beisel, Bobby Engram, and Tyson Jackson.

The Ravens also improved this offseason, adding some good players like Domonique Foxworth, Matt Birk, Michael Oher, Paul Kruger, and Lardarius Webb.

The Ravens shouldn’t have much of a problem with the Chiefs. Matt Cassel is obviously a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback, as he proved throughout the 2008 season.

However, the Ravens held some good quarterbacks to nothing in 2008, including Tony Romo, Chad Pennington, and Jason Campbell.

The Chiefs will be forced to go to the air early, as the Chiefs don’t have a legitimate No. 1 back and the Ravens have an incredible run defense. That shouldn’t work for them.

The Ravens added three cornerbacks in the offseason, all 25 or younger, in Chris Carr, Domonique Foxworth, and Lardarius Webb.

In addition to that, the Ravens already had Fabian Washington lining up at corner, and Ed Reed and Dawan Landry at safety, certainly a dangerous safety duo.

I fully expect the Ravens to wlak away with an easy win on Opening Day.

W (1-0)

 

Week 2 – Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers (4:15 PM, CBS)

The San Diego Chargers have a tendency to start slowly, but I don’t expect that to resume next season. The Chargers added a solid defensive end in Larry English, have one of the best young quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, and have a good 1-2 punch of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles in the backfield.

The Ravens can certainly handle the Chargers offense, but I don’t see the Ravens winning this game purely because they are on the road against the Chargers, who play very well at home.

The Ravens are capable of winning this, because Joe Flacco showed he could win on the road throughout the 2008 season, but San Diego, with a healthy Shawne Merriman, along with Larry English and a resurgent Antonio Cromartie, could cause some problems for the Ravens.

The key for the Ravens to win is stopping Rivers, plain and simple. If they can limit him, they can easily win this.

While the Chargers have a good 1-2 punch, it’s not a great one, as L.T. has clearly lost a step and there are still questions on whether Darren Sproles can handle a big workload.

L (1-1)

 

Week 3 – Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)

It’ll be interesting to see who wins the quarterback battle for the Cleveland Browns. It could be Brady Quinn, but it could also be Derek Anderson. I don’t think the Ravens care, because they can give both quarterbacks headaches.

The Browns traded multiple times in the 2009 NFL Draft and ultimately decided to add California center Alex Mack with the 21st overall pick. I’m not sure the Ravens care about that, either.

I fully expect the Baltimore Ravens to win this game. Flacco didn’t have a good game the first time against the Browns last year, but was 13-for-19, and in his second game against Cleveland, he won AFC North Offensive Player of the Week.

The Browns lost some weapons over the offseason, losing Donte Stallworth, Kellen Winslow, and being at odds with receiver Braylon Edwards. If the Ravens can handle Edwards and Winslow healthy, they can certainly handle a disgruntled Edwards, and an unknown No. 2 wide receiver.

The Ravens not only are a much improved team, but the Cleveland Browns are a team with even fewer offensive weapons than they had last season.

W (2-1)

 

Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (1:00 PM, CBS)

The New England Patriots are obviously a Super Bowl contender. With Tom Brady returning healthy, Patriots Nation fully expects a Super Bowl run. The Ravens are also a team who could go all the way, but stopping the New England Patriots is no easy task.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens came out victorious in this game, as the Ravens did almost beat the hated New Englanders in 2007, but some tough penalties and breaks led to a loss.

However, I’m not expecting a Ravens win in Week 4. Especially not if Baltimore plays at Gillette Stadium, where the Pats are practically unbeatable.

The Ravens will need to be able to limit Randy Moss, not an easy task. Despite being up there in age (turned 32 in February), Moss appears to be at the top of his game.

He adjusted to a new quarterback in 2008, and still managed to catch 69 passes, gain over 1,000 yards, and score 11 touchdowns. It wasn’t comparable to his record-breaking 2007 campaign, but it was definitely a solid year.

On top of that, the Ravens will need to watch for Wes Welker. I see this game being a close one, but the Pats coming out on top.

L (2-2)

 

Week 5 – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)

Earlier in the week, Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer made a likely unrealistic prediction, saying his team would be 6-0 after six games and 10-2 after 12 games. I’ll be honest, I laughed. 

The Bengals return linebacker Keith Rivers 100 percent healthy and also have Rey Maualuga, which will be big. Adding Andre Smith with the No. 6 overall pick was a wise decision, as the reason for Palmer’s injury troubles was his lack of protection.

However, the Bengals don’t have a top ten caliber defense, and despite adding Smith, don’t yet have a good offensive line. On top of that, they lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson continues to express his discomfort.

I expect the Ravens to take this game in a cakewalk. The Bengals did improve as the year progressed, but not to a point that they were a playoff team. The Ravens are a Super Bowl caliber team, and the Ravens embarrassed Cincinnati in a Week 13 matchup, 34-3.

The Bengals have no run game whatsoever. Cedric Benson is a capable back, but mustered just 19 yards on 10 carries in the second Ravens/Bengals contest.

The Ravens will have to commit a huge gaffe to let this one slip away, especially if the guy who has owned them for so long, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, is long gone.

W (3-2)

 

Week 6 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (1:00 PM, CBS)

The Ravens stole a great Viking offensive lineman when they acquired free agent center Matt Birk, agreeing to terms with the six-time Pro Bowler on a three-year, $12M deal. The Vikings hope to get their vengeance on the Ravens by beating Birk’s new squad.

The Ravens will visit the Vikes in the Metrodome for a Week 6 matchup that will feature two great defenses, two young quarterbacks, and two powerful running games. I think the Ravens have the advantage in all three.

The Ravens did lose Bart Scott, but it doesn’t appear as if the loss will be as devastating as some pictured, and the Ravens consistently have a better defensive unit than Minnesota.

There is almost no argument for Tarvaris Jackson when you compare Flacco and Tarvaris, and while Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL, he fumbled nine times, most for any running back.

The Vikes also don’t have the depth the Ravens have in the backfield. The Ravens can look to four guys to pick up the slack. Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee, and Ray Rice proved last year they can play well at the NFL level.

The Ravens also added Cedric Peerman in the draft, a guy who looked sharp in minicamp, and the Ravens rushing offense will only be stronger with Michael Oher, a solid offensive lineman, lining up on the right side.

W (4-2)

 

Week 8 – Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)

Last year, the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens were polar opposites. The Broncos relied on a strong aerial attack, featuring now departed quarterback Jay Cutler, wide receivers Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and tight end Tony Scheffler.

However, the Broncos had no stability in the backfield, had a poor defense, and lived and died by the pass.

The Ravens, on the other hand, used their solid defense and run game to their advantage and looked to rookie quarterback Joe Flacco on occasion for a big play.

However, that has changed. While the Broncos defense isn’t yet great, it definitely has improved, adding Brian Dawkins, Andra Davis, and Andre Goodman.

They also added to their backfield by drafting Knowshon Moreno and signing Correll Buckhalter. Moreno appears to be a great Rookie of the Year candidate, as he has a good offensive line, led by Ryan Clady, and will start.

Nonetheless, the Ravens are at home, and due to the fact that the Ravens defense and run game is plainly better than Denver’s and are also at home in this contest.

W (5-2)

 

Week 9 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 PM, CBS)

The Ravens again meet up with the Bengals, who, in Carson Palmer’s book, will at this point be 7-1. I don’t see it.

The Ravens played a good, solid game on Opening Day in 2008 against Cincinnati in 2008, coming out victorious at home, 17-10.

However, they looked considerably better in a Week 13 matchup again against Cincy (this time on the road) in a 34-3 shellacking.

The Bengals, I think, will be hit hard by the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is one of the most reliable targets for a quarterback. Even with an unstable quarterback position last year, he managed to catch 92 passes and gain 904 yards.

Along with that, people can say what they want about Carson Palmer’s productive career thus far, but he has carried the Bengals to ONE playoff appearance despite having wide receivers to throw to that some would drool over.

I expect the Ravens to come away with this one in a cakewalk. The Bengals don’t have a bright outlook for the 2009 season, and the Ravens do, and I would be very surprised if the Ravens walked out of Cincy defeated.

W (6-2)

 

Week 10 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (8:30 PM, ESPN)

For the first time, the Ravens will appear in prime time, facing the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night at Browns Stadium. Like I said, the Browns aren’t anything to scare the Baltimore Ravens defense.

They have two quarterbacks who were very below average last season, have no consistency running the ball, and lost one of their main targets in Kellen Winslow.

This is a game the Ravens should be licking their chops for, especially Joe Flacco, who succeeded in his second game against Cleveland in 2008, winning AFC North Offensive Player of the Week.

The Browns will have to establish a flashy aerial attack, because, let’s face it, Jamal Lewis is far past his prime. I don’t see a scenario in which the Browns have considerable success throwing the football, especially considering the speed the Ravens corners have.

After all, the Ravens have Ed Reed back at safety, and Dawan Landry returning, who was a playmaker in 2006 and 2007 before getting hurt in the second game of the 2008 campaign. I expect the Ravens to win this game…without breaking a sweat.

W (7-2)

 

Week 11 – Indianpolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)

We Baltimore Ravens fans all remember the tragedy that was the Week 6 matchup between the Colts and Ravens in 2008. We all know the story: Colts win 31-3, Peyton Manning carves up the Ravens secondary.

However, this time, the Ravens have corner play that is considerably better, have an improved Joe Flacco, and an offensive line that can match up with just about anybody in the NFL.

The Colts lost Tom Moore, their genius offensive coordinator, and Tony Dungy, who is the mastermind behind the Indianapolis Colts.

However, I don’t see the Ravens winning this game purely because the Ravens have always had troubles against the Colts, and that includes a 15-6 loss in the 2006 playoffs, that coming after the Ravens magical 13-3 season.

While losing both Moore, Dungy, and wide receiver Marvin Harrison will hurt Indianapolis, they still have the best quarterback in the game in Peyton Manning, a star receiver in Reggie Wayne, and a good tight end in Dallas Clark.

L (7-3)

 

Week 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (8:20 PM, NBC)

This is the game Ravens fans want the most, I’m sure. Right now, it’s pretty obvious the Ravens and Steelers are going to finish atop the AFC North. In what order has yet to be determined.

This matchup features two teams with incredible defenses, well coaches squads, and clubs with a history. Both teams respective fanbases are bitter. For now, the Steelers have bragging rights.

They beat the Ravens three times last year, if you include the AFC Championship. However, much of that is due to the constant duress Joe Flacco was under during those games.

While you wouldn’t think a rookie drafted 23rd overall would make such an immense impact, offensive tackle Michael Oher would change that.

We know he’s not going to completely limit James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, both extremely good pass rushers, but we can expect Oher will stop the bleeding, and give Flacco some time to find the open receiver.

That was such a huge problem last year, as Flacco often had to automatically lob the ball to Derrick Mason by default when under pressure. That should change, and I expect a win in Week 12.

W (8-3)

 

Week 13 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers (8:30 PM, ESPN)

This is a game I’m intrigued by. While the Green Bay Packers are a team who finished just 5-11 last season, I see them as a team who can turn it around.

They have a good back in Ryan Grant, a bright young quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, two solid receivers, and while the Packer defense was miserable last year, they did add Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji into the mix.

While I’m expecting the Ravens to leave Lambeau Field victorious, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens, in such an environment, fall short.

While Packers fans can use the excuse that Flacco, a young quarterback, will get rattled, that point is invalid. As you may or may not remember, this is a guy who went into Heinz Field (on Monday Night Football, in his third career start) and threw for nearly 200 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions.

However, I see Green Bay as a surprise team and if the Ravens and Packers have identical records going into this game, I would not be very surprised, as the Pack definitely have potential.

W (9-3)

 

Week 14 – Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, FOX)

Unless you lived under a rock during the 2008 NFL season, which if you’re a Lions fan, you probably considered, you’d know the Ravens have a clear advantage going into this game.

The Martin Mayhew/Jim Schwartz era in Detroit appears to be a better one than that of Matt Millen/(insert name). While it’s unclear whether Matthew Stafford will emerge as the franchise quarterback, he certainly has the potential, and the Lions finally have some direction.

However, that direction in this game will be straight into the ground. The Lions have a dismal pass AND run defense. While they improved that during the draft by adding Louis Delmas, adding one second round safety can only do so much.

Unless the Ravens are 12-0 going into the game and prepared to tank the season, I’d be shocked if the Ravens fell in this game.

While teams like the Falcons, Ravens, and Dolphins turned it around last season, they had solid offensive lines and legitimate defenses, and in the Ravens case, great defenses.

However, I don’t see the Lions as a team to have such a dramatic turnaround, as they don’t have a legitimate defense or a good offensive line, and I don’t see them coming out victorious…especially not in Baltimore.

W (10-3)

 

Week 15 – Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)

The diva of this offseason was Jay Cutler. He went through a rift with the management of the Denver Broncos, and ended up getting traded to the Chicago Bears.

The Bears haven’t had a true franchise quarterback in quite some time, and at 25, Cutler is that guy. He’ll need more targets, but finally has the running game so that Jay doesn’t have to carry the team on his shoulders.

However, passing the ball on Baltimore is no easy task, not even to Jay Cutler. The 25-year old has a rifle arm, but he is not Peyton Manning, who was the only quarterback who had flashy numbers against the Ravens in 2008.

I expect the Ravens to come away with a victory. The Bears have no deep threats that the Ravens need worry about, and Matt Forte is a good halfback, but so are Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook, Steve Slaton, Maurice Jones-Drew, Willie Parker, and Chris Johnson, all guys the Ravens completely halted during the 2008 regular season, and the Ravens defense, if anything, has improved. I don’t expect the Bears to pose much of a threat, and the Ravens should win this game.

W (11-3)

 

Week 16 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 PM, CBS)

The Ravens finally play a game in Pittsburgh not in prime-time. The Ravens have been surprisingly equal with the Steelers the last three seasons, as the total score in 2006, 2007, and 2008 games between the two is 117-90 Ravens.

However, when you weigh in that the Ravens outscored the Steelers by a score of 58-7 in 2006, the Steelers do have the advantage.

The Ravens almost never seem to win at Heinz Field, but who does? I expect the Steelers and the Ravens to be in a dog fight for the AFC North in this contest, as they always are.

Again, I think the Steelers will win the game. The Steelers have an incredibly easy schedule going into the season. In fact, the Ravens have the 28th hardest, while Pittsburgh’s S.O.S. (strength of schedule) stands at 29th.

The Steelers and Ravens, I believe, will both make the playoffs, but the Steelers will again crawl out of the season as AFC North Division champions.

It’ll be close, but the Steelers always seemed to come out with last minute victories, whether it be in the Super Bowl or against the Ravens.

L (11-4)

 

Week 17 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders (4:15 PM, CBS)

The Baltimore Ravens have beaten the Oakland Raiders the last two meetings by a combined score of an embarrassing 56-10.

However, both those games were in Baltimore at M & T Bank Stadium. Playing in Oakland is certainly a frightening experience. The fans will, as NFL Films put it: “Raiders fans will eat your baby.”

That may be a bit of a stretch, but Oakland Raiders fans take their football seriously, and come Sunday, they come to the game with intent to intimidate their opponent.

However, I doubt Joe Flacco is frightened of Oakland Raiders fans after he has faced the Steelers multiple times.

Al Davis again proved he should seriously consider retiring when he drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey, the fastest receiver available, instead of Michael Crabtree, the BEST receiver available. It was downright shocking.

The Raiders have some offensive support for JaMarcus Russell, and he is on the brink of a breakout. But against the Ravens? The Raiders never have success against the Ravens, and I don’t see a change.

W (12-4)

The Minnesota Vikings Players on the Bubble Heading Into Training Camp

Training camp can bring a rush of emotions to young players who are searching for a shot to play on a team. Some are simply trying to cling to the team for dear life.

It can also bring out the best in players through the spirit of competitiveness. There is no truer form to judge who is best qualified to be a start on a NFL team then whom is the greater competitor.

Which ever the case, the Minnesota Vikings have certain players on the verge of finding themselves either out of a job or outgunned for their position in 2009. Some veterans are also finding themselves in trouble as they are being outplayed on the field and can see the writing the wall of what 2009 will bring.

Where will these misfits fit (or not fit) in?

The Arizona Cardinals’ D-Line in Transition: Darnell Dockett Wants Out

The boys are not back in town.

Three key players most likely will not be returning to the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals’ defensive line.

Darnell Dockett has demanded a trade after the Cardinals refused to give him more money. Nothing is certain at this point, but it looks like he’s gone.

Antonio Smith is already gone to the Texans. He left quickly. The Texans signed him on February 28th, just 27 days after the Cardinals’ Super Bowl let down. He got paid. Smith should be good for them.

Travis LaBoy, a little known hybrid defensive end, will undergo ankle surgery this month and could miss the entire season. For those of you who don’t know him, he’s the white guy with long hair coming out the back of his helmet a la Pat Tillman.

It has been said that the defense wins championships. The Cardinals almost disproved that last year. They played inspired defense in the playoffs, but that’s not what got them there.

They fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast shortly after their loss on the world’s biggest stage when the Pittsburgh Steelers came back to win with a long, methodical drive orchestrated by “Big Ben” Roethlisberger.

That drive was truly amazing, but the NFL (like all professional sports) is about the bottom line. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense failed them when it mattered most.

They were a lot better than in years past, but the Cards’ defense gave up over 30 points five times last season. Three of those games were over 40, and one was over 50.

The Cardinals were 16th in the league in rush defense, giving up 110 rush yards a game. They tied for 14th overall in sacks with 31 on the season.

The point is their defensive line was middle of the pack. Let’s not forget they’re in the NFC West, which, aside from the Cardinals, was the weakest offensive division.

So, the Cardinals’ defensive line has room for improvement. It looks like they’ll have to rebuild, but it could work out for the best.

The Cardinals drafted four defensive players including outside linebacker Cody Brown from the University of Connecticut and defensive end Will Davis from Illinois. Scouts weren’t talking them up too much, but maybe the Cards see something they don’t.

They still have Bertrand Berry, a 12 year veteran on a one year contract who will get a lot more playing time than last year. This could be his last season.

Since the Cardinals’ defensive line was middle of the pack they have room to improve, but they also have room to regress. How they promote and develop their players will determine their success or failure.

Former linebacking coach Bill Davis is now the defensive coordinator. The linebacking core for the Cardinals has been solid since Davis has been coaching, so it will be interesting to see if his promotion translates to overall defensive improvement.

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